“Its not about Aptitude but Attitude that determines your altitude” –Zigziglar

Module 2 :
Probability
MODULE 2
Prepared by : Engr. Maricar M.
Navarro PROBABILITY
, M.Eng. IE, PIE, ASEAN
Engr. Maricar
Engr.M. Navarro, M.Eng.IE, PIE , ASEAN Engr.
2.0 Intended Learning Outcomes and Topics

Intended Learning Outcomes

at the end of this module , the students will be able to;

1. Define the Probability , Probability Distribution, Discrete Probability

Distribution and Continuous Probability Distribution
2. Identify the Binomial and Poisson Distribution, its formula and Usage
3.Recognize the comparison of Binomial Distribution and Poisson Distribution

Topics
1.Discrete Probability Distribution, Continuous Probability Distribution
2.Binomial Distribution
3.Poisson Distribution
Experimental Probability Vs Theoretical Probability

There are two approaches to study probability:

• Experimental Probability
• Theoretical Probability
What is Experimental Probability?

Experimental probability, also known as Empirical probability, is based on actual

experiments and adequate recordings of the happening of events. To determine the
occurrence of any event, a series of actual experiments are conducted. Experiments which
do not have a fixed result are known as random experiments. The outcome of such
experiments is uncertain. Random experiments are repeated multiple times to determine
their likelihood. An experiment is repeated a fixed number of times and each repetition is
known as a trial. Mathematically, the formula for the experimental probability is defined
by;
Probability of an Event P(E) = Number of times an event occurs / Total number of trials.
What is Theoretical Probability?

In probability, the theoretical probability is used to find the probability of an

event. Theoretical probability does not require any experiments to conduct.
Instead of that, we should know about the situation to find the probability of an
event occurring. Mathematically, the theoretical probability is described as the
number of favourable outcomes divided by the number of possible outcomes.

Probability of Event P(E) = No. of. Favourable outcomes/ No. of. Possible
outcomes.
Common Simple Events for Discussion
Roll a Die
Flip a Coin
Deck of Cards
Counting Techniques: Permutation vs Combination

In mathematics, permutation relates to the act of arranging all the members of a set into
some sequence or order, or if the set is already ordered, rearranging its elements, a process
called permuting. Permutations occur, in more or less prominent ways, in almost every area
of mathematics. They often arise when different orderings on certain finite sets are
considered.

The combination is a way of selecting items from a collection, such that (unlike
permutations) the order of selection does not matter. In smaller cases, it is possible to
count the number of combinations. Combination refers to the combination of n things
taken k at a time without repetition. To refer to combinations in which repetition is
allowed, the terms k-selection or k-combination with repetition are often used.

The difference between combinations and permutations is ordering. With permutations we

care about the order of the elements, whereas with combinations we don’t.
1. Permutations with Repetition

1. Permutations with Repetition

In a 3-digit lock, there are 10 numbers to choose from (0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9) and we choose 3 of them:
n 10
r 3
Permutation 1000
2. Permutations without Repetition

2. Permutations without Repetition

Order of 3 balls out of 16 pool balls

n 16
r 3
Permutation 3360
3. Combinations without Repetition

3. Combinations without Repetition

Pool balls without order, 3 balls out of 16

n 16 16
r 3 13
Combination 560 560
4. Combinations with Repetition

4. Combinations with Repetition

Let us say there are five flavors of ice cream: banana, chocolate, lemon, strawberry and vanilla. We can
n 5
r 3
Combination 35
Frequency Distribution
: It is a listing of observed /actual frequencies of all the outcomes of an experiment that
actually occurred when experiment was done.
Example : The following table shows Frequency tells you how often something
what family planning happened. The frequency of an
methods were used by observation tells you the number of
teens in Kweneng, West times the observation occurs in the data.
Botswana. The left column For example, in the following list of
shows the categorical numbers, the frequency of the number 9
variable (Method) and the
right column is
is 5 (because it occurs 5 times):
the frequency — the
number of teens using that
Example :
particular method (image
courtesy of KSU). 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 9, 8, 5, 1, 1, 9, 9, 0, 6, 9.

A frequency distribution table showing Frequency distribution tables give you a snapshot of the
data to allow you to find patterns. A quick look at the
categorical variables. above frequency distribution table tells you the majority
of teens don’t use any birth control at all.
Types of Probability Distribution

Probability Distribution:

Probability Distribution: It is a listing of the probabilities of all the possible outcomes that
could occur if the experiment was done.
It can be described as:

A diagram (Probability Tree)

A table
A mathematical formula
Types of Probability Distribution
Discrete Distribution: Random Variable can take only
limited number of values.

Example : No. of heads in two tosses. - Counted

Continuous Distribution: Random Variable can take any

value.

Example : Height of students in the class. -

Measured
 What is a Discrete Probability Distribution?

In statistics, you’ll come across dozens of different types of probability distributions, like
the binomial distribution, normal distribution and Poisson distribution. All of these
distributions can be classified as either a continuous or a discrete probability distribution.
A discrete probability distribution is made up of discrete variables. Specifically, if a random
variable is discrete, then it will have a discrete probability distribution.

What is a Random Variable?

In algebra you probably remember using variables like “x” or “y” which represent an unknown
quantity like y = x + 1. You solve for the value of x, and x therefore represents a particular
number (or set of numbers, if you’re talking about a function). Then you get to statistics and
different kinds of variables are used, including random variables. These variables are still
quantities, but unlike “x” or “y” (which are simply just numbers), random variables have distinct
characteristics and behaviors.
Random variables are denoted by capital letters

If you see a lowercase x or y, that’s the kind of variable you’re used to in

algebra. It refers to an unknown quantity or quantities. If you see
an uppercase X or Y, that’s a random variable and it usually refers to the
probability of getting a certain outcome.

Discrete vs Continuous variables: How to Tell the Difference

In an introductory stats class, one of the first things you’ll learn is the difference
between discrete vs continuous variables. In a nutshell, discrete variables are
points plotted on a chart and a continuous variable can be plotted as a line.
What is a Discrete Variable?

Discrete variables are countable in a finite amount of time.

Example :

you can count the change in your pocket. You can count the money in your bank account.
You could also count the amount of money in everyone’s bank accounts. It might take you
a long time to count that last item, but the point is—it’s still countable.
Figure 1 ; Discrete variables on a scatter plot.
What is a Continuous Variable?

Continuous Variables would (literally) take forever to count. In fact, you would get to
“forever” and never finish counting them.

Example, take age. You can’t count “age”. Why not? Because it would literally take
forever. For example, you could be: 25 years, 10 months, 2 days, 5 hours, 4 seconds, 4
milliseconds, 8 nanoseconds, 99 picosends…and so on.

You could turn age into a discrete variable and

then you could count it.
Example

A person’s age in years.

A baby’s age in months.

Figure 2 ;Time is a continuos variable

What is a Discrete Probability Distribution?

In statistics, you’ll come across dozens of different types of probability distributions,

like the binomial distribution, normal distribution and Poisson distribution. All of
these distributions can be classified as either a continuous or a discrete probability
distribution.
A discrete probability distribution is made up of discrete variables. Specifically, if
a random variable is discrete, then it will have a discrete probability distribution.
Discrete Probability Distribution Examples

Example : let’s say you had the choice of playing two games of chance at a fair.
Game 1: Roll a die. If you roll a six, you win a prize.
Game 2: Guess the weight of the man. If you guess within 10 pounds, you win a prize.

One of these games is a discrete probability distribution and one is a continuous probability
distribution. Which is which?
Discrete Probability Distribution Examples

Game 1 , you could roll a 1,2,3,4,5, or 6. All of the die rolls have an equal chance of being
rolled (one out of six, or 1/6). This gives you a discrete probability distribution of:

Roll 1 2 3 4 5
Odds 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
Continuous Probability Distribution Examples

Game 2 For the guess the weight game, you could guess that the mean
weighs 150 lbs. Or 210 pounds. Or 185.5 pounds. Or any fraction of a
pound (172.566 pounds). Even if you stick to, say, betwen 150 and 200
pounds, the possibilities are endless:

160.1 lbs.
160.11 lbs.
160.111 lbs.
160.1111 lbs.
160.111111 lbs.
In reality, you probably wouldn’t guess 160.111111 lbs…that seems a little
ridiculous. But it doesn’t change the fact that you could (if you wanted to), so
that’s why it’s a continuous probability distribution.
Examples of discrete probability distributions

The following are examples of discrete probability distributions commonly

used in statistics:
1. Binomial distribution.
2. Geometric Distribution
3. Hypergeometric distribution.
4. Multinomial Distribution.
5. Negative binomial distribution.
6. Poisson distribution.
What is a Binomial Distribution?

A binomial distribution can be thought of as simply the probability of a SUCCESS or

FAILURE outcome in an experiment or survey that is repeated multiple times. The
binomial is a type of distribution that has two possible outcomes (the prefix “bi”
means two, or twice).

Example 1 : a coin toss has only two possible outcomes: heads or tails
Example 2 : taking a test could have two possible outcomes: pass or fail.
n and p

The first variable in the binomial

formula,

n, stands for the number of times the

experiment runs.

The second variable,

p, represents the probability of one

specific outcome.
A Binomial Distribution shows either (S)uccess or (F)ailure.

Roll 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Odds 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6

You wanted to know the probability of getting a 1 on a die roll. if you were to roll a die 20
times, the probability of rolling a one on any throw is 1/6.

Roll twenty times and you have a binomial distribution of (n=20, p=1/6). SUCCESS would be
“roll a one” and FAILURE would be “roll anything else.”

If the outcome in question was the probability of the die landing on an even
number, the binomial distribution would then become (n=20, p=1/2). That’s
because your probability of throwing an even number is one half.
Roll 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Odds 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
Criteria to use Binomial distributions

Binomial distributions must also meet the following three criteria:

1. The number of observations or trials is fixed. In other words, you can only figure out
the probability of something happening if you do it a certain number of times. This is
common sense—if you toss a coin once, your probability of getting a tails is 50%. If you
toss a coin a 20 times, your probability of getting a tails is very, very close to 100%.
2. Each observation or trial is independent. In other words, none of your trials have an
effect on the probability of the next trial.
3. The probability of success (tails, heads, fail or pass) is exactly the same from one trial
to another.
Once you know that your distribution is binomial, you can apply the binomial distribution
formula to calculate the probability.
What is a Binomial Distribution? Real Life Examples

Many instances of binomial distributions can be found in real life.

Example : if a new drug is introduced to cure a disease, it either cures the disease (it’s
successful) or it doesn’t cure the disease (it’s a failure).
Example : If you purchase a lottery ticket, you’re either going to win money, or you
aren’t. Basically, anything you can think of that can only be a success or a failure can be
represented by a binomial distribution.

Binomial Distribution Formula

 Binomial Distribution

There are certain phenomena in nature which can be identified as Bernoulli’s processes, in which:
•There is a fixed number of n trials carried out
•Each trial has only two possible outcomes say success or failure, true or false etc.
•Probability of occurrence of any outcome remains same over successive trials
•Trials are statistically independent

Binomial distribution is a discrete Probability Distribution which expresses the probability of one set of
alternatives – success (p) and failure (q)

1.

(Probability of r successes in n trials)

n = no. of trials undertaken
2.
r or x = no. of successes desired
p = probability of success
q = probability of failure

b =stands for binomial distribution 3 b (x; n, P) = nCx . Px . (1 – P)n – x

Binomial Distribution Formula:

1ST Formula
(Factorial)

b (x; n, P) = nCx . Px . (1 – P)n – x 2nd Formula

(Combination )

Any of the two formula can be used and will arrived at the same answer
 Example 1

Example #1 A coin is tossed 10 times. What is the probability of getting exactly 6 heads?
n x P q = 1-P Probability of Failure
10 6 0.5 0.5
Probability of Success =Head or Tail so that why 0.5
Combination 2nd Term 3rd Term Probability
g combination 210 0.015625 0.0625 0.205078125

using factorial 210

Using Binomial Distribution Function in Excel

Probability = 0.205078125
 Example 2

Example #2 80% of people who purchase pet insurance are women. If 9 pet insurance owners are rando
n x P q = 1-P Probability of Failure
9 6 0.8 0.2
Probability of Success =80%
Combination 2nd Term 3rd Term Probability
84 0.262144 0.008 0.176160768

Using Binomial Distribution Function in Excel

Probability = 0.176160768
 Example 3

Example #3 60% of people who purchase sports cars are men. If 10 sports car owners are randomly selec
n x P q = 1-P Probability of Failure
10 7 0.6 0.4
Probability of success =60%
Combination 2nd Term 3rd Term Probability
120 0.0279936 0.064 0.214990848

Using Binomial Distribution Function in Excel Use BINOMDIST

Probability = 0.214990848
What is the Poisson Distribution?

A Poisson distribution is a tool that helps to predict the probability of certain events from
happening when you know how often the event has occurred. It gives us the probability of
a given number of events happening in a fixed interval of time.

P(x; μ) = (e-μ * μx) / x! Or

P(x; μ) = (e-μ) (μx) / x!
Where:
The symbol “!” is a factorial.
μ or λ = (the expected number of occurrences) is sometimes written
as λ. Sometimes called the event rate or rate parameter.
x = is the actual number of successes that result from the experiment
e is approximately equal to 2.71828. e is Euler’s number, a constant)
Example
The average number of major storms in your city is 2 per year. What is the
Example #1
probability that exactly 3 storms will hit your city next year?

mu (μ) x
2 3

e^(-μ) μ^x X! Probability

0.135335283 8 6 0.180447044

Using Poisson Distribution Function in Excel

Probability = 0.180447044

If the random varable X follows a Poisson distribution with mean of 3.4, Find the
probability of X = 6
Example #2
mu (μ) x
3.4 6

e^(-μ) μ^x X! Probability

0.03337327 1544.804416 720 0.071604409

Using Poisson Distribution Function in Excel

Probability = 0.071604409
 END
Thank you and God bless Everyone 
• Its not about Aptitude but Attitude that determines your Altitude-Zigziglar