FLOOD ANALYSIS

A flood is an unusually high stage in a river – normally a level at which the

river overflows its banks and inundates the adjoining area. In the design of
practically all hydraulic structures the peak flow that can be expected with
an assigned frequency (say 1 in 100 years) is of primary importance to
adequately proportion the structure to accommodate its effect.
Applications: The flood peak values are required for design of
bridges, culvert waterways and spillways for dams and estimation of
scour at a hydraulic structure.
To estimate the magnitude of a flood peak values the methods
available are:
Physical indication of past floods
Rational method
Emperical method
Unit-hydrograph technique
Flood – frequency studies.
The use of particular method depends upon
The desired objective
The available data
Importance of the project
Note: The rational formula is only applicable to catchments of size <50
km2 and the unit-hydrograph method is normally restricted to moderate-
size catchments with area, < 5000 km2.
RATIONAL METHOD: The basic equation for rational method is,

Q p  CAi; for t  te
C = Coe. of runoff = (runoff/rainfall)
A = area of the catchment
i = intensity of rainfall
Using the commonly used units, the above equation is written as,

Qp 
1
3.6
 
C itc , p A

Where Qp = peak discharge (m3/s)

C = coe. of runoff
itc,p = the mean intensity of precipitation (mm/h) for a duration
equal to tc and an exceedence probability P
A = drainage area in km2
TIME OF CONCENTRATION (tc):
US Practice: For small drainage basin, the time of concentration is
approximately equal to the lag time of the peak flow. Thus
 n
 LLca 
tc  t p  Ct L  
 S 
Where tc =time of concentration in hours
Ct, L, Lca, n and S have the same meaning as in previous case.
RAINFALL INTENSITY (itc,p)
The rainfall intensity corresponding to a duration tc and the desired
probability of exceedence P (i.e. return period T=1/P) is found from the
rainfall – frequency duration relationship for the given catchment area.

x
KT
itcp 
 tc  a 
m

In which K, a, x and m are constants.

Runoff Coefficient (C):
The coefficient C represents the integrated effect of the catchment losses
and hence depends upon the nature of the surface, surface slope and
rainfall intensity. The effect of rainfall intensity in not considered in the
available tables of C.
The rational formula is found to be suitable for peak-flow prediction
in small catchments up to 50 km2 area. It finds considerable application in
urban drainage designs and in the design of small culverts and bridges.
EMPERICAL FORMULAE
The empirical formulae used for the estimation of the flood peak are
essentially regional formulae based on statistical correlation of the
observed peak and important catchment properties. To simply the form of
the equation, only a few of the many parameters affecting the flood peak
are used.
NOTE: In view of these, the empirical formula are applicable only in
the region from which they were developed and when applied to other
areas they can at the best give approximate values.
Flood-Peak-Area Relationships: The maximum flood discharge Qp from a
Catchment area A is given by these formulae as,

Q p  f A 

Dickens Formula (1865)

Q p  C D A 3 4

Note:
Dickens formula is used in the central and northern parts of the
country.
Where,
Qp = maximum flood discharge (m3/s)
A = catchment area (km2)
CD = Dickens constant with value between 6 to 30.
Guide lines for selecting the value of CD,
____________________________________________________________
Value of CD
____________________________________________________________
North – Indian plains 6
North – Indian hilly regions 11 – 14
Central India 14 – 28
Coastal Andhra and Orissa 22 – 28
____________________________________________________________
Ryves Formula (1884)

Q p  C R A 2 /3

Where,
Qp = maximum flood discharge (m3/s)
A = catchment area (km2)
CR = Ryves coefficient

Note:
Ryves formula originally developed for the Tamil Nadu region. It is in
use in Tamilnadu and parts of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.
Inglis Formula (1930)
This formula is based on flood data of catchments in Western Ghats in
Maharashtra.

The flood peak Qp in m3/s is expressed as,

124 A
Q p 
A  1 0 .4
2
w h e r e A is th e c a tc h m e n t a r e a in k m
ENVELOPE CURVES
In regions having same climatological characteristics, if the available flood
data are meagre, the enveloping curve technique can be used to develop a
relationship between the maximum flood flow and drainage area.
In this method the available flood-peak data from a large number of
catchments which do not significantly differ form each other interms of
meteorogical and topographical characteristics are collected.
The data are then plotted on a log-log paper as flood peak vs catchment
area. If an enveloping curve that would encompass all the plotted data
points are drawn, it can be used to obtain maximum peak discharges for
any given area.
Envelope curves thus obtained are very useful in getting quick rough
estimations of peak values. If equations are fitted these enveloping
curves, they provide empirical flood formulae of the type, Q = f(A).

.
Fig. Envelop Curve- Example
UNIT-HYDROGRAPH

The unit-hydrograph can be used to predict the peak-flood hydrograph if the

rainfall producing the flood, infiltration characteristics of the catchment and
the appropriate unit hydrograph are available
FLOOD-FREQUENCY STUDIES
The values of the annual maximum flood from a given catchment area for
large number of successive years constitute a hydrological data series called
The annual series. The data are then arranged in decreasing order of
Magnitude and the probability P of each event being equalled to or exceeded
is calculated by the formula,

m
P
N 1
m  order number of the event
N  tota l n umber of event s in the data
T  recurrence int erval
1
T
P
PLOTTING POSITION FORMULAE

Method P
California m/ N
Hazen  m  0.5 N
Weibull m  N  1
Chegodayev  m  0.3  N  0.4 
Blom  m  0.44   N  0.12 
Gringorten  m  3 8  N  1 4 
The probability of occurrence of the event r times in n successive years is
given by
nr
Pr n  Cr P q
n r

where, q  1  P
NOTE:
A plot of Q vs T yields the probability distribution. For small return periods
(i.e. for interpolation) or where limited extrapolation is required, a simple
best-fitting curve through plotted points can be used as the probability
distribution. A logarithamic scale for T is often advantageous.
However, when large extrapolation of T are involved, theoretical probability
distribution have to be used.
In frequency analysis of floods the usual problem is to predict extreme flood
events. For which, specific extreme distributions are assumed and the
required statistical parameters calculated from the available data. Using
these the flood magnitude for a specific return period is estimated.
Chow (1951) has shown that most frequency-distribution functions
applicable to hydrologic studies can be expressed by the following
general equation of hydrological frequency analysis:


xT  x  K
xT  value of the var iate X of a random hydro lg oical
series with a return period T

x  mean of the var iate
  s tan dard deviation of the var aite
K  frequency factor which depend s up on the return period
Some of the commonly used frequency distribution functions for the
prediction of extreme flood values are:

 Gumbel’s extreme-value distribution

 Log-Pearson Type III distribution, and
 Log normal distribution.
Fig. Gumbel Distribution -
Example

Fig. Gumbel Distribution – Various

confidence levels
LOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
LOG-PEARSON TYPE III DISTRIBUTION
FLOOD MIGRATION / FLOOD CONTROL
The flood control measures that are in use can be classified as:

1. STRCTURAL METHODS
a. Storage and detention reservoirs b. Leeves (flood embankment)
c. Flood ways (new channels) d. Channel improvement
e. Watershed management

2. NON-STRUCTURAL METHODS
a. Flood plain zoning b. Flood forecast/warning
c. Evacuation and relocation d. Flood insurance
RISK, RELIABILITY AND SAFETY FACTOR

RISK & RELIABILITY

The designer of a hydraulic structure always face a nagging doubt about the
risk of failure of his structure. This is because the estimation of the hydrologic
design values (such as the design flood discharge and the river stage during
the design flood) involve a natural or inbuilt uncertainty and as such a
hydrologic risk of failure.

As an example, consider weir with an expected life of 50 years and designed

for a flood magnitude of return period T=100 years. Their weir may fail if a flood
magnitude greater than the design flood occurs within the life period (50 years)
of the weir.

The probability of occurrence of an event (x≥xT) at least once period of n

successive years is called the risk, R. Thus, the risk is given by R = 1-
(probability of non-occurrence of the event x≥xt in n years).
R= 1-(1-P)n

= 1- (1-1/T)n

Where P = probability P (x≥xT) =1/T

T = return period

The reliability Re, is defined as

Re = 1-R = 1- [1-(1-1/T)n ] = (1-1/T)n

NOTE: It can be seen that the return period for which a structure
should be designed depends upon the acceptable level of risk. In
practice, the acceptable risk is governed by economic and policy
consideration.
SAFETY FACTOR

In addition to the hydrological uncertainty, as mentioned above, a

water resources development project will have many other
uncertainties. These may arise out of structural, constructional,
operational and environmental causes as well as from non-
technological considerations such as economic, sociological and
political causes. As such, any water resources development
project will have a safety factory for a given hydrological parameter
M as defined below:
Safety factor ( for the parmaer M )  ( SF ) m 
Actual value of the parameter M
adopted in t he design of the project

Value of the parameter M obtained
from hydro log ical cos niderations only
Cam

Chm
NOTE:

The parameter M includes such items as flood discharge magnitude,

maximum river stage, reservoir capacity and free board. The difference
(Cam-Chm) is known as safety margins.
FLOOD ROUTING
EXERCISE 1:

Route the flood hydrograph given below through a channel reach and derive the
outflow hydrograph. The values of K and x for the reach may be taken as 12h and
0.278 respectively.
Time - h Flow, m3/s
0 42
4 68
8 116
12 164
16 194
20 200
24 192
28 170
32 150
36 128
40 106
44 88
48 74
52 62
56 54
Exercise 2: The inflow and outflow hydrograph ordinates of a particular channel
reach are given in m3/s at 6 h intervals in the table given below. Determine
Muskingham parameters K and x for the reach. (HINT: Assume K=0.3, 0.2,0.1
and repeat the process and find out which value of K is correct)

Time, h I , m3/s Q, m3/s

0 35 35
6 135 57
12 440 200
18 670 455
24 685 612
30 535 617
36 385 510
42 235 375
48 140 246
54 95 158
60 60 102
66 42 68
72 35 56
Flood routing is the technique of determining the flood hydrograph at a
section of a river by utilizing the data of flood flow at one or more
upstream sections.
APPLICATIONS: The hydrological analysis of problems such as flood
forecasting, flood protection, reservoir design and spillway design.
Types of flood routing:
1. Reservoir routing
2. Channel routing
Reservoir routing: In reservoir routing the effect of flood wave entering a
reservoir is studied.

Knowing the volume-elevation characteristics of the reservoir and the

Outflow-elevation relationship for the spillways and other outlet structures in
the reservoir, the effect of a flood wave entering the reservoir is studied to
predict the variations of reservoir elevation and outflow discharge with
time.
This form of reservoir routing is essential,
i. In the design of the capacity of spillways and other reservoir outlet
structures,
ii. In the location and sizing of the capacity of reservoirs to meet specific
requirements.
Channel routing: In channel routing the changes in the shape of a
hydrograph as it travels down a channel is studied.

By considering a channel reach and an input hydrograph at the upstream

end, this form of routing aims to predict the flood hydrograph at various
sections of the reach. Information on the flood-peak attenuation and the
duration of high-water levels obtained by channel routing is of utmost
importance in flood-forecasting operations and flood-protection works.
A variety of routing methods are available and they can be broadly
classified into two categories as,
i. Hydrologic routing
ii. Hydraulic routing
Hydrologic routing methods employ essentially the equation of continuity.

Hydraulic routing, on the other hand, employ the continuity equation

together with the equation of motion of unsteady flow. The basic differential
equations used in the hydraulic routing, known as, St. Venant equations
afford a better description of unsteady flow than hydrologic methods.

BASIC EQUATIONS

The passage of a flood hydrograph through a reservoir or a channel reach

is an unsteady-flow phenomenon. It is classified in open-channel hydraulics
as gradually varied unsteady flow.
In the differential form the equation of continuity for unsteady flow in a
reach with no lateral flow is given by,

Q y
T 0
x t
Where T = top width of the section and y = depth of flow.
The equation of motion for a flood wave is derived from the application of
the momentum equation as,
y V V 1 V
   So  S f
x g x g t

Where V = velocity of flow at any section

So = channel bed slope
Sf = slope of the energy line
The continuity equation and the equation of motion are believed to have
been first developed by A.J.C. Barre de Saint Venant (1871) and are
commonly known as St Venant equations.
HYDROLOGIC STORAGE ROUTING
Modified Pul’s method
Goodrich method
Graphical method
Analog method
HYDROLOGIC CHANNEL ROUTING
Muskingum method
HYDRAULIC METHOD OF FLOOD ROUTING
The hydraulic method of flood routing is essentially a solution of thebasic
St Venant equations. These equations are simultaneous, quasi-linear,first
order partial differential equations of the hyperbolic type and are not
amenable to general analytic solutions.
Only for highly simplified cases can one obtain the analytical solution of
these equations.
The various numerical methods for solving St Venant equations can be
broadly classified into two categories:
1. Approximate methods, and
2. Completed numerical methods.
Approximate methods
These are based on the equation of continuity only or on a drastically
curtailed equation of motion.
The hydrological method of storage routing and Muskingum channel
routing discussed earlier belong to this category.
Other methods in this category are Diffusion analogy and Kinematic wave
models.
Complete Numerical Methods
These are the essence of the hydraulic method of routing and are
classified into many categories as below:
 Complete Numerical Method

Direct Method Method of characteristics Finite element

(MOC) method (FEM)

Implicit Method Explicit Method

(I) (I)

Characteristic nodes Rectangular grid

I E I E
HYDROLOGIC CHANEEL ROUTING

Fig. Storage in a channel reach

In reservoir routing the storage was a unique function of the outflow
discharge, S = f(Q)
However, in channel routing the storage is a function of both outflow and
inflow discharges.
The flow in a river during a flood belongs to the category of gradually
varied steady flow. Hence the water in a channel reach is not only not
parallel to the channel bottom but also varies with time.
Consider a channel reach having a flood flow, the total volume storage can
be considered under two categories as:
i. Prism storage: It is the volume that would exist if uniform flow
occurred at the downstream depth, i.e. the volume formed by an
imaginary plane parallel to the channel bottom drawn at the outflow
section water surface.
ii. Wedge storage: It is the wedge-like volume formed between the actual
water surface profile and the top surface of the prism storage.
The wedge storage changes from a positive value at an advancing
flood to a negative value during a receding flood.
The prism storage Sp is similar to a reservoir and can be expressed as a
function of the outflow discharge, Sp = f(Q).
The wedge storage Sw can be accounted for by expressing it as Sw = f(I).
The total storage in the channel reach can be expressed as,

S  K  x I  1  x  Q 
m m

Where, K and x are coefficients and m = a constant exponent. It has

been found that the value of m varies from 0.6 for rectangular
channels to a value of about 1.0 for natural channels.
Muskingum Equation

S  K  x I m  1  x  Q m 
For m  1, S  K  x I  1  x  Q 
For x  0, S  KQ
For x  0.5, both Inflow & Outflow equally impor tan t in
dert min ing the storage

The coefficient K is known as storage-time constant and has the

dimensions of time.
It is approximately equal to the time of travel of a flood wave through the
channel reach.
Estimation of K and x
Figure below, shows a typical inflow and outflow hydrograph through a
channel reach. Note that the outflow peak does not occur at the point of
intersection of the inflow and outflow hydrographs. Using the continuity
equation,
t t
 I1  I 2    Q1  Q2   s
2 2

The increment in storage at any time t and time element t can be

calculated. Summation of the various incremental storage values
enable to find the channel storage S vs time relationship.
Fig. Hydrographs and storage in a
channel routing
If an inflow and outlflow hydrograph set is available for a given reach,
values of S at various time intervals can be determined by the above
technique. By choosing a trail value of x, values of S at any time t are
plotted against the corresponding  xI  1  x  Q  values. . If the value of x is
chosen correctly, a straight-line relationship as given by Eqn.

S  K  x I m  1  x  Q m  will result.

However, if an incorrect value of x is used, the plotted points will

trace a looping curve. By trail and error, a value of x is so chosen
that the data very nearly describe a straight line. The inverse slope of
this straight line will be give the value of K.
NOTE:
Normally, for natural channels, the value of x lies between 0 to 0.3.
For a given reach, the values of x and K are assumed to be constant.
Fig. Determination of K and x for a
channel reach
Prob: The following inflow and outflow hydrographs were observed in a river
reach. Estimate the values of K and x applicable to this reach for use in the
Muskinghum equation.

Time (h) Inflow (m3/s) Outflow (m3/s)

0 5 5
6 20 6
12 50 12
18 50 29
24 32 38
30 22 35
36 15 29
42 10 23
48 7 17
54 5 13
60 5 9
66 5 7
MUSKINGUM METHOD ROUTING
For a given channel reach by selecting a routing interval t and using the
Muskingum equation, the change in storage is

S 2  S1  K  x  I 2  I1   1  x  Q2  Q1    1

Where suffixes 1 and 2 refer to the conditions before and after the time
interval t .
The continuity equation for the reach is

 I 2  I1   Q2  Q1 
S 2  S1    t    t  2 
 2   t 

From Eqs (1) & (2), Q2 is evaluated as,

 Q2  C0 I 2  C1 I1  C2Q1   3
where,
 Kx  0.5t
C0 
K  Kx  0.5t
Kx  0.5t
C1 
K  Kx  0.5t
K  Kx  0.5t
C2 
K  Kx  0.5t
Note : C0  C1  C2  1

NOTE:
Eqn. (3) provides a simple linear equation for channel routing.
It has been found that best results the routing interval should be so
chosen that K>t>2Kx. If t<2 Kx, the coefficient Co will be negative.
Prob: Route the following hydrograph through a river reach for which K=
12.0 h and x=0.20, At the start of the inflow flood, the outflow discharge is
10 m3/s.

Time 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54
(h)

Inflow 10 20 50 60 55 45 35 27 20 15
(m3/s)

Solution:

Since K=12h and 2Kx=2x12x0.2=4.8h, t should be such that

12h> t>4.8h. In the present case t=6h is selected to suit the given inflow
hydrograph ordinate interval.

NOTE: K>t>2Kx
  Kx  0.5t
12  0.20  0.5  6 0.6 C0 
C0    0.048 K  Kx  0.5t
12  12  0.2  0.5  6 12.6 Kx  0.5t
12  0.20  0.5  6 C1 
C1   0.429 K  Kx  0.5t
12.6 K  Kx  0.5t
12  12  0.20  0.5  6 C2 
C2   0.523 K  Kx  0.5t
12.6 Note : C0  C1  C2  1

For the first time interval, 0 to 6h,

I1=10.0 C1I1=4.29
I2=20.0 C0I2=0.96
Q1=10.0 C2Q1=5.23
From Eqn. (3), Q=C0I2+C1I1+C2Q1=10.48 m3/s
For the next time step, 6 to 12 h, Q1 = 10.48 m3/s
Similarly, the same procedure was repeated entire duration of the inflow
hydrograph.
NOTE: By plotting the inflow and outflow hydrographs the attenuation and
peak lag are found to be 10 m3/s and 12 h respectively.
Muskingum Method of Routing, t=6h
Time(h) I (m3/s) 0.048I2 0.429I1 0.523Q1 Q (m3/s)

1 2 3 4 5 6
0 10 10.00
0.96 4.29 5.23
6 20 10.48
2.4 8.58 5.48
12 50 16.46
2.88 21.45 8.61
18 60 32.94
2.64 25.74 17.23
24 55 45.61
2.16 23.6 23.85
30 45 49.61
1.68 19.3 25.95
36 35 46.93
1.3 15.02 24.55
42 27 40.87
0.96 11.58 21.38
48 20 33.92
0.72 8.58 17.74
54 15 27.04
Fig. Hydrographs in a channel routing