ISSN: 0011-9342 | Year 2021

Design Engineering Issue: 7 | Pages: 11343 - 11357

Load Forecasting using Time Series Techniques

Shahida Khatoon1, Ibraheem1, Priti1, Mohammad Shahid2*
1
Department of Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering & Technology, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi,
India
2
Department of Electrical Engineering, Galgotias College of Engineering and Technology, Greater Noida, Uttar
Pradesh, India

Email*: mseej01@gmail.com

Abstract
Load Forecasting is of great significance for effective and efficient operation of power system. Use of
time series is of much importance in load forecasting. In this study, effectiveness of different time series
techniques is identified to gathered valuable information. The objective is to predict electric load efficiently
and effectively. This paper analyses the prediction accuracy of variety of time series method in modeling
Electric load forecasts. The study examines the time series forecasting methods applied to estimate future
electric load, specifically, Moving Average (MA), Linear Trend, the Exponential and Parabolic Trend. A
comparison of different forecasting techniques of Time Series is demonstrated on real time data. The data
utilized for forecast is made available through a distribution company of India. The traditional linear models
and hybrid models along with ANN are developed. These models are appraised for the forecasting capability.

Keywords:Load forecasts, Time series, ANN, FTS technique, Moving Average

I. INTRODUCTION

The importance of load forecasting in power system planning cannot be de-emphasized. Most of the time
decision making processes are supplement by some extent of estimate, with a logical amount of sureness of
admissible future loads. If the load forecasting is conditional, depending upon some factors, desirable
measures can be taken before starting it. Hence getting add-on to the logical result.
Presently wide range of techniques and methods of load forecasting are available, starting from the basic
methods to hybrid models, which include more than one technique. Among all the forecasting technique time
series has attained lot of attention because it is easier to use and understand. Use of time series is of much
importance in load forecasting process. Fuzzy logic renders accurate solution which is always desirable.
Time series data can be used to train ANN. Being a simple method ANN provide better accuracy than the
traditional one. The primary objective is to determine a model which is acceptable. Actually researchers are
continuously working on it.
Error in forecasting may affect the overall power planning, operation and control, especially in the case of
new power system. It has been found that results of load forecast by fuzzy time series are closer to actual
values than the forecast obtained by using traditional time series techniques. Thus the error with fuzzy time
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series was less than other methods.

This study is intended to help out researchers for selecting a suitable time series technique of forecasting
electric load. This paper explores the performance of different time series techniques in the same situation
and explains the reason behind it also.
The emphasis is on time series analysis and forecasting. Section 2 gives the literature review, Time series
technique has been described in section 3. Section 4 discusses the results and Conclusion in section 5.

II. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND AND LITERATURE REVIEW

A time series is nothing but a cluster of data points collected during a particular time span. It may be
yearly, quarterly, monthly or weekly. Time series can be applied to predict future load on the basis of
collected past data fed in the forecasting model. The main aim of time series method of forecast is to discover
a suitable model that will define robust system and predict the upcoming loads based on current and previous
load
Actually the exact purpose of time series analysis is to track the trends and patterns of available previous
load of the concerned time series and strive to anticipate the upcoming load based on the trends and pattern
identified in the model [1-3]. [4, 5] bring the revolution in the field of forecasting.
Further [6,8] Include the seasonal effect in extrapolation. [7] proposed an econometric models for the egg
industry. [9] proposed an econometric model for US economy. [10] utilized tine series for first five year of
forecast and for next ten years forecast is modified based on conditions judgement. [11] presented traditional
technique of seasonal adjustment for prediction of broiler cycles. [12] provided comparison of Iowa curves
and regression techniques of time series. [13] utilized linear transformation to convert a non-stationary time
series into a stationary series for the forecasting purpose. [14] introduced a technique for trending time series
with relative growth rate model forecasting to design the telephone business. Regression has been utilized for
parameter evaluation. [15] integrated time series technique into an econometric system and presented an
improved forecast. [16, 17] presented a prediction model for approximations to the load duration curve
utilizing Box-Jerkin time series analysis. [18] forecasted an adaptive seasonal time series. [19] combined
regression and ARIMA models for forecasting and results were compatible. [20] introduced vector time
series for forecasting which outperforms the traditional ARMA model. All these models are unable to identify
the nonlinearity in load and temperature data. [21,22] come out from this difficulty with a simple polynomial
regression analysis, which combined with a transfer function model. This simple nonlinear extension to the
transfer function Box and Jenkins outperform. [23] again utilized Box Jerkins technique of time series for
traffic forecast. [24] used corrective method with the help of historical data of cyclic effects for peak value
forecast. [25] decomposed the stationary time series into different component for forecasting purpose.
Applications of ANN bring the forecast using adaptive [26] network. [27] proposed a forecasting technique
for seasonal time series and compared with AR model. [28] demonstrated a seasonal forecasting technique
which utilizes least square and the iteratively reweighted least squares, and then results were compared with
traditional Box-Jerkin method. A powerful learning algorithm for [29] was developed to remove the
unwanted and absurd data from time series. This sorted data was used for training of ANN as input and target

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data. The results were found to be more accurate than used with original time series. [30-32] integrated the
fuzzy concept and artificial neural network for time series load forecast. If the signal and/or the weights is
fuzzify then the network is termed as FNN. For training, a hybrid learning methodologies [30] are applied
which consists of both unsupervised and supervised learning. Much accurate results of forecasts and lesser
time taking technique make it superior to the conventional methods. [31] presents FNN models for
forecasting and recommend a remarkable stability in comparison to conventional methods. [32] presented a
neurofuzzy method for time horizon of 2-3days. Results are outstanding. [33] presented different time series
model for forecasting centre call volume i.e. MA, MA with smoothing and ARIMA. The accuracy of each
model was verified and proved to be powerful prediction technique. [34] proposed nonlinear generalization
of Box and Jerkin method for which neural weather compensation has been utilized. [35] applied artificial
neural network to identify new pattern for time series forecasting. [36] demonstrated a fuzzy predictor to
forecast time series with the help of GA. [37, 38] applied wavelet transform to ANN for prediction of time
series. [39] suggested Box-Jenkins ARIMA models, multivariate V AR and BV AR time-series models and
the performance evaluation shows that model is best among these. [40] demonstrated an improved time series
forecast method in which electric load is decomposed into weather dependent and non-dependent time series.
[41] presented a fuzzy forecaster which utilizes curve smoothing technique and the forecaster outperformed.
[42-45] applied fuzzy algorithm for time series modeling of forecast and technique was called fuzzy time
series. [46] goaled on improving the fuzzy time series where in place of equal intervals, ratio based length
intervals had been utilized [47] proposed an adaptive time variant fuzzy time series forecast technique to
increase the correctness of result. [48] suggested a new model NCSTAR, in which is the integration of AR
and ANN Network forecasting time series. [49] combined ANN with ARIMA to get improved results. [50]
presented a state space model for time series forecast at different intervals. [51] integrated the time series
modeling (Box–Jenkins) with the understanding of skilled human operators and gave accuracy than
traditional methods for instance ANN and time series.
Further with the expansion of the global power industry there is a rise in the need of predicting electric
load. No doubt, accurate prediction of electric load and their features will definitely make better power
system planning and will affect the decision making process also [52]. [53] demonstrated an ARIMA model
for electricity price forecast using time series. [54] demonstrated ARMA which include cumulant anf
bispectrum to facilitate Gaussian and non-Gaussian considerations for forecast. [55] applied SVM in
financial time series forecast. [56] presented a PSO approach with ARMAX model for forecast. [57]
examined three different time series of different intervals for which AR is used to forecast. [58] developed a
new class of time series known as STM where different components can be separately modeled. [59] made
comparison of three different time series methods namely moving averages, exponential smoothing, and
ARIMA and indicated that integration with ANN models found to be suitable for forecast. [60] proposed a
new time series forecasting technique with complex seasonal pattern and exponential smoothing. [61] done
comparison of traditional forecasting methods, i.e. ARFIMA and ARIMA, However, integration with ANN
has improved their accuracy. [62] concluded that the Seasonal approach of ARIMAX outperformed the
SARIMA.
[63] discussed different forecasting technique and time series analysis as a right forecasting technique

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choice. Their main emphasis was on the better application of techniques rather than better forecasting
methods
The concept of computational intelligence based layered ensemble architecture applied in time series
forecast [64]. [65] classified the errors in to two components offsets and variations and studied the behavior
of these two in different forecasting methods in different situations. It has been concluded that forecasting
models with lesser no of parameters has higher offsets and low variations while complex models shows just
lower offsets and higher variations. Effects of different factors were also studied on these two components.
[66] examined a prediction technique of fuzzy time series which controls the non-determinism in time series
forecast. In order to enhance the forecasting results of FTS a higher order model [67] is chosen so that it
divides the universe of discourse into unequal intervals. Autoregressive with exogenous inputs (ARX) and
artificial neural network (ANN) models [68] has been applied to detect and then impute abnormalities in time
series. To reduce the computational complexity of conventional fuzzy time series, a new method [69] is
presented which rely on order decision and adaptive partition.
Most of the time series are non-stationary in nature hence normal fuzzy time series has difficult to deal
with changes in patterns. To come out of this issue a new hybrid method [70] with higher order fuzzy time
series and wavelet transform has been applied. Result was quite promising. [71] applied a fuzzy logic system
of interval type-2 for prediction of the stock index. [72] applied an statistical ARIMA model which is able to
forecast the stock market. [73] used the sparse map for ordering well the time series. Then fuzzy rules are
applied to make it fuzzy time series. Finally using this forecasting is done with inverse sparse mapping of the
output. The result outperforms the traditional techniques. [74] applied a technique for prediction where time
series has been converted in to complex network using visibility graphics. The results are speedy with higher
precision. [75] investigated a new model for forecasting fuzzy time series to handle the uncertainties where
results are in the form of intervals. To decrease the presence of abnormalities in time series model and select
the appropriate patterns. [76] utilised three steps technique decomposition, forecasting, and ensemble and
results obtained was quite promising. [77] divide and beat formulae for solving complex time series
forecasting problems. The time series has been split up in to multiple sub time series which are simple to
forecast individually and finally integrate the results to get final forecast. Empirical mode decomposition was
used for splitting. Long short term memory neural network, linear regression, and Bayesian were used for
forecast. [78] proposed Empirical Wavelet Transform method with Artificial Bee Colony technique, Extreme
Learning Machine neural network, and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average linear analysis
technique. The result outperforms and technique is proved to be quite efficient and effective.

III. TIME SERIES TECHNIQUE

In this study we have applied different time series technique for load forecasting. Here all the techniques
are applied on the data of same time on different days. The idea behind it is that the load consumption pattern
is similar for all the days. Simple moving average is applied for the load data of same time four days and load
is forecasted for the fifth day. Similarly linear, parabolic and exponential trends are also applied as it is
considered that load at particular time follows a specific pattern. A concept of fuzzy time series is also

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applied where fuzzy rules are applied on time series data.

The time series techniques applied here are as follows:

III. I Moving Average Technique

Here, for each point, the moving average of a time series is a mathematical estimate of the successive
number of points. MA technique is not using the past data directly rather it utilize the arithmetic mean of the
some recent past data which is always moving with time. If the number of data points is selected so that there
is no influence of season, or other factors then data must of at least past two years. Otherwise, the result will
not be accurate. (Well, the bigger the history, better the results.)
Forecasted value obtained by the MA method at time t+1 is given by
𝐷 +𝐷 +𝐷 …..+𝐷𝑡−𝑛 +1
𝐹𝑀𝐴(𝑡+1) = 𝑡 𝑡−1 𝑡−2 (1)
𝑁
Where FMA(t+1) : Forecasted load at time interval t+1.
Dt: Previous load at time t.
Dt-i:Past load
N: Number of previous period

III. II Trends Methods

This technology fits in with a trend towards a mathematical equation, and then forecast using it. There are
a number of options to trend: slope, polynomials, logarithms, and so on. Trend analysis is the study of the
behavior of a process in the past, and the mathematical model that can be extrapolated into the future. These
are main approaches for analyzing trends.

III. II. I Linear Trend

Linear trend forecast technique applies a best-fit straight line to the historical time series data. This is a
simplified prediction technique that can be used to predict the demand of a time series forecasting model. It
is given by 𝐹 (𝑡) = 𝑎 + 𝑏 𝑡 + 𝑒 (2)
𝐿𝑇 𝐿𝑇 𝐿𝑇 𝐿𝑇
Where,
FLT(t): Forecast using linear trend at time interval t.
aLT: Intercept of straight line
bLT: Slope of line
eLT: Error in estimation.

III. II. II Parabolic Trend

If the time series data is not linear but still propagating fluently The Parabolic techniques can be used. To
apply this technique the equation is given by
𝐹𝑃𝑇 (𝑡) = 𝑎𝑃𝑇 + 𝑏𝑃𝑇 𝑡 + 𝑐𝑃𝑇 𝑡 2 + 𝑒𝑃𝑇 (3)

Where FPT(t): Forecast using parabolic trend at time interval t.

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aPT: Intercept coefficient

bPT: Slope of the parabolic curve.
cPT: Rate of change with time in the slope of the curve.
ePT: Error in estimation

III. II. III Exponential Trend

If the time series data is propagating in such a way that it cannot be predicted using linear and parabolic
trend also percentage changes become horizontal with time. Then exponential trend technique can be applied.
The model is governed by the equation:
𝐹𝐸𝑇 = 𝑒 𝑎 𝐸𝑇 +𝑏 𝐸𝑇 .𝑡 (4)
If taking log on both sides
ln (𝐹𝐸𝑇 ) = 𝑎𝐸𝑇 + 𝑏𝐸𝑇 𝑡 (5)
It becomes linear.
Where
FET(t): Forecast using Exponential trend at time interval t.
aET andbET : Coefficient to be calculate.

III. III. FTS Technique

FTS technique is combined application of fuzzy modelling on time series for the purpose of prediction. It is
almost intuitive, but based on the output of fuzzy modes to a close up of time series features. For
convenience, the fuzzy time series is divided into two models, training model and prediction model.
This consists of following steps:
1. Define the universe of discourse from the time series data such that UD=[MIN(D), MAX(D)].
2. Chop the UD in to multiple overlapping equal intervals. For the collected data linguistic variables Ai
is of the form A={A1, A2, A3….A16}
3. Now fuzzify the numerical values of data into fuzzy values as sample is given in Table I.
4. From these data fuzzy logic relation groups are created which consists of two fuzzy sets one is
preceding group and other is subsequent group. Sample is obtained as in table II.
5. With the application of deffuzification rules the process of forecasting is completed using mid-point
method and sample of the results are given using the formulae.
Table 1 Fuzzification
Load (Kw) Fuzzy Set Linguistic Variables
11793.72 A9
11734.68 A9
11112.12 A9
10526.28 A8
9759.36 A7
9286.92 A7
10024.68 A8
10455.96 A8

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9974.04 A7
9105 A7
9319.56 A7
8051.28 A6
8884.8 A6
8384.88 A6
8769.48 A6

1+0.5
𝐹1𝑓𝑡𝑠 = 1 0.5 , if j=1 (6)
+
𝑎1 𝑎2

0.5+1
𝐹𝑁𝑓𝑡𝑠 = 0.5 1 , if j=N (7)
+
𝑎 𝑁 −1 𝑎 𝑁

0.5+1+0.5
𝐹𝑚𝑓𝑡𝑠 = 0.5 1 0.5 , if 2<j<N-2 (8)
+ +
𝑎 𝑚 −1 𝑎 𝑚 𝑎 𝑚 +1

Table II Fuzzy Relation Group

Subsequent Precedent
Group Group
A1 A3
A2 A3
A3 A2
A4 A4
A5 A5
A6 A5
A7 A7
A8 A8
A9 A9
A10 A10
A11 A11
A12 A11
A13 A13
A14 A13
A15 A14
A16 A13

6. A sample of the result obtained is given in the table III

Table III Forecasting with FTS

Fuzzy Set Deffuzified Vales

A1 3500
A2 4790.32
A3 5407.56

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A4 6422.15
A5 7432.74
A6 8440.77
A7 9447.08
A8 10452.16
A9 11456.36
A10 12459.87
A11 13462.86
A12 14465.43
A13 15467.67
A14 16152.63
A15 16500
A16 18500
A combination of artificial neural network along with prediction methods gives a concept of hybrid
model. Typically the data have variety of input sample which is enough for training and to predict the
interrelation of input and output.
In this technique concept of hybrid models is also applied with the use of artificial neural network in time
series forecast. Here output of one technique is applied as the input to ANN. In the training process ANN
adjust the weight and biases to get the required result. In this study the real time data at one hour span, for
one month is collected from a utility company of Greater Noida, UP.
Three layer feed forward model is applied for this purpose. The layer 1 consists of 10 neurons and layer 2, 20
neurons in the presented model. To represent the hourly load prediction for whole day the corresponding
output in the model is 31.

IV. RESULTS
This section represents the results of the time series techniques applied on real time data. A comparison
of Moving average, linear trend and parabolic trend is shown in figure. 1, where linear trend shows better
performance among them. Fig. 2 represents exponential trend, FTS and hybrid ANN-FTS in graph where the
hybrid ANN-FTS outperformed.
Fig. 3 shows comparison of different time series techniques. A comparative graph of the integrated time
series techniques is presented in figure 4. Table IV compare various time series techniques and Table V
shows the results of hybrid techniques. Results show that linear trend and its hybrid technique is not suitable
for forecasting because load pattern shows nonlinearity of time series. Similarly parabolic trend and its
hybrid is not sufficient for forecasting purpose as collected time series data do not show any resemblance
with parabolic trend. Exponential trend with its hybrid using ANN is also inappropriate for predicting electric
load consumption. The result shows that FTS along with its integrated technique is appreciated for load
forecasting purpose.

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25
ACTUAL LOAD
MOVING AVERAGE LOAD
20 LINEAR TREND FORECASTED LOAD
PARABOLIC TREND FORECASTED LOAD
LOAD (MW)

15

10

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
HOURS OF A DAY
Fig.1 Comparison of MA, simple Linear Trend, and Parabolic Trend

25
ACTUAL LOAD
EXPONENTIAL TREND FORECASTED LOAD
20 FTS LOAD
ANN-FTS LOAD
LOAD(MW)

15

10

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
HOURS OF A DAY

Fig. 2 Comparison of Exponential Trend, Fuzzy Time Series, and Integrated Fuzzy Time Series

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25
ACTUAL LOAD
MA FORECASTED LOAD
LINEAR TREND FORECASTED LOAD
20
PARABOLIC TREND FORECASTED LOAD
EXPONENTIAL TREND FORECASTED LOAD
FTS
LOAD (MW)

15 ANN-FTS

10

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
HOURS OF A DAY

Fig. 3 Comparison of Time Series Techniques

25
ACTUAL LOAD ANN MA

20 ANN LINEAR TREND ANN PARABOLIC TREND

ANN EXPONENTIAL TREND ANN FUZZY TIME SERIES

LOAD(MW)

15

10

0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
HOURS OF A DAY

Fig. 4 Comparison of integrated Techniques

Table IV Comparison of Different Time Series techniques on Real Time Data

Forecasting Method AFER
MOVING AVERAGE 19.25%
LINEAR TREND 15.67%
PARABOLIC TREND 20.14%
EXPONENTIAL TREND 15.61%
FTS 6.29%

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Table V Integrated Time Series techniques on Real Time Data

Forecasting Method AFER
MOVING AVERAGE 15.17%
LINEAR TREND 15.07%
PARABOLIC TREND 16.68%
EXPONENTIAL TREND 26.79%
FTS 2.07%

V. CONCLUSIONS

This paper presents time series technique for prediction of future load consumption. Firstly a short
introduction of time series application is reviewed briefly. Then different time series method of forecasting is
applied to real time data. The performance is evaluated and compared. The foremost advantage in time series
analysis is its ability to conserve time information. Also, it is found that the fuzzy time series is faster than
the other algorithms. Finally, among all other techniques FTS outperforms.
The simulations results show strong evidence of the superiority of integrated FTS followed by the FTS alone,
it is concluded that the prediction of electric load based on FTS provide best performance. The electric load
collected from the utility company of Greater Noida, UP. Fuzzy Time Series and its hybrid with ANN
produced the least amount of error. Hence gives the better performance. The time series technique for
forecasting when compared in this study conclude as when ANN models used in conjunction with basic
models gives the better results than original ones.

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