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Rainfall trends of Brunei Darussalam

Conference Paper · January 2014

DOI: 10.1049/cp.2014.1064

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Evaluation of rainfall and temperature trends in Brunei Darussalam
Dk. Siti Nurul Ain binti Pg. Ali Hasan, Uditha Ratnayake, and Shahriar Shams

Citation: AIP Conference Proceedings 1705, 020034 (2016); doi: 10.1063/1.4940282

View online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4940282
View Table of Contents: http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/proceeding/aipcp/1705?ver=pdfcov
Published by the AIP Publishing

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Evaluation of Rainfall and Temperature Trends in Brunei
Darussalam
Dk. Siti Nurul Ain binti Pg. Ali Hasan1, a), Uditha Ratnayake1, b) and Shahriar
Shams1, c)
1
Civil Engineering Programme Area, Faculty of Engineering, InstitutTeknologi Brunei, JalanTungku Link,
Gadong BE1410, Brunei Darussalam.
a)
First author: dsnurulainpah@ymail.com
b)
uditha.ratnayake@itb.edu.bn
c)
Corresponding author: shams.shahriar@itb.edu.bn

Abstract. Climate change is acknowledged as the world’s significant environmental predicament. Rainfall and temperature
have been widely studied in correlation with climate change. This paper demonstrates the result of the trend analysis of
rainfall variables over the period of 1984 to 2013 and temperature variables over the period of 1979 to 2013 in Brunei
Darussalam. Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to analyse and detect trends for the variables. This study revealed that the
observed rainfall has a statistically significant increasing trend with increasing rainfall duration and decreasing intensity. The
annual rainfall has increased significantly at a rate of 26.16 mm per annum. Mann-Kendall test for rainfall data reveals an
increasing trend at confidence level of 95% for the annual total rainfall and confidence of level 90% for of annual maximum
rainfall. The observed temperature also exhibits a statistically significant increasing trend at a rate of 0.031oC per year.
Results of Mann-Kendall test for temperature data indicate a positive trend at a confidence level of 99.9% for the annual
average temperature, average day time temperature, minimum day time temperature, average night time temperature and
minimum night time temperature and at a confidence level of 95% for maximum night time temperature. The progressive
effect of both the observed rainfall and temperature changes will contribute to greater surfaces run off and create flooding
problem. Too much rainfall will threaten slope stability while dry periods of increased temperature will cause soil erosion.

INTRODUCTION

Brunei Darussalam is a small country with a total area of 5765 km2 situated on the northwest of the Borneo
Island in the South China Sea. Although Brunei Darussalam is a small country, it has the highest percentage of
per capita usage of energy [1]. It is one of the largest carbon footprint contributors in the world at 22.9 metric
tons of CO2 per capita [2]. It has an equatorial climate influenced by the monsoon winds, with temperature
ranges from 23oC to 32oC and the total annual rainfall exceeds 2300 mm throughout the country [3]. The rainy
seasons commence from late October to early January as a result of Northeast Monsoon coming from South
China Sea and from May to July Southwest Monsoon. The seasonality is a reflection of the two monsoon
seasons together with the related movements of the “Inter Tropical Convergence Zone” (ITCZ) and the
influence of local land-sea circulation as shown in Fig. 1. The humidity is high with an average of 85%
throughout the year with higher sunshine and evaporation, while during the months of February to April, there
is less rainfall [4].

FIGURE 1. Rainfall distribution pattern over Brunei Darussalam (Source: [5])

The coastal planes and the nearby flood plains of the country are highly urbanised and of densely
populated areas. The drainage system of the flood plains depends on both gravity drainage and pumped system
Progress in Applied Mathematics in Science and Engineering Proceedings
AIP Conf. Proc. 1705, 020034-1–020034-10; doi: 10.1063/1.4940282
© 2016 AIP Publishing LLC 978-0-7354-1352-8/$30.00

020034-1
that operates on peak flow. The drainage system constructed and installed in these inhabited areas intends to
drain excess rainwater and groundwater with the purpose of alleviating flooding at the flood prone area. This
concept has been proven effective most of the times except for a few instances of very high rainfall [6]. Over
115 cases of flooding and 105 landslides were reported in the year 2014 alone [1]. Rainfall is the one of the
most important factor contributing to the loading of the drainage systems, thus affecting the competence of the
system.
The commencement and amount of precipitation are changing as the earth is gradually warming up.
Increasing heat energy contributes to greater rate of evaporation and accelerates land surface drying [7].
Rising temperatures leads to alter water cycles affecting the livelihood of people, agriculture and ecosystems
[8]. Therefore, increase in temperature is associated with increased water vapour in the atmosphere [9]
contributing to higher risk of heavy precipitation. Obeysekera et al. [10] reviewed numerous scientific
publications in order to understand the natural variability of climatic regimes as well as climate projections
associated with future climate change. Preparation for climate change should be based on the best-available
information with the purpose of minimising the uncertainties associated with data analysis and projections.
This paper presents the results of the historical rainfall and atmospheric temperature trend analyses of a
time series in Brunei Darussalam. The Mann-Kendall test from the MAKESENS model has been applied to
detect trends and to understand magnitude of changes. Analyses of long-term rainfall and temperature trends
assist in forecasting flood events [11] and for water resource planning and management [12].

METHOD

Primary rainfall and atmospheric temperature data collected and observed through weather station located
at the Brunei International Airport are obtained from the Brunei Darussalam Meteorological Services (BDMS)
under the Department of Civil Aviation (DCA), Ministry of Communications. The rainfall data used for this
research is for the time period of 30 years, from 1984 to 2013, whereas the available temperature data is for
the time period of 35 years, from 1979 to 2013.The primary data of rainfall and temperature are arranged in
excel spread sheet and analysed to identify the historical trend of change of the annual rainfall and
atmospheric temperature in Brunei Darussalam. A linear trend line is fitted to the raw data to determine the
regression coefficient as the trend parameter. The seasonal changes can be identified by evaluating the
monthly rainfall trends. The result of the parametric linear regression analysis will then be assessed
statistically by using Mann-Kendall Test to eliminate the uncertainty of results and create significance trends
of changes in rainfall and temperature.

Mann-Kendall Test
Mann-Kendall (MK) test [13-14]is a statistical test used to assess and identify if there is a monotonic
positive (upward) or negative (downward) trend of the variable of interest over time. It can be assumed to
obey the model

xi = f (ti ) + εi (1)

where f (ti ) is a continuous monotonic increasing or decreasing function of time and the residuals εi is
from the same distribution with zero mean. Hence, the variance of the distribution is a constant in time.
The null hypothesis of no trend, H0 i.e. the observations xi are randomly distributed in time, is tested
against the alternative hypothesis Hα, where there is an increasing or decreasing monotonic trend. It tests
whether to reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis.
The trend of changes in rainfall and temperature were analysed by using an Excel template MAKESENS
trend model, in which it’s user’s manual was introduced by Salmiet al.[15]. MAKESENS consist of two types
of statistical analyses. First the presence of a monotonic increasing or decreasing trends is tested with the
nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and secondly the slope of a linear trend is estimated with the nonparametric
Sen’s method [16]. Only the Mann-Kendall test is being applied in this study whereas the gradient of the
linear trend can be identified by using the linear fitted line graph. However, the equations obtained from the
linear fitted line graph can be compared with the result of the Sen’s method to check whether they coincide or
not. In the computation of this statistical test MAKESENS exploit both the so-called S statistics given by
Gilbert [16] and the normal approximation (Z statistics). However, time series with more than 10 data points is
analysed in this study and hence, the normal approximation is used.
In order to perform the normal approximation test, first the variance of S is computed by the following
equation

020034-2
 1# &
q
VAR(S) = %n(n −1)(2n + 5) − ∑ t p (t p −1)(2t p + 5)( (2)
18 %$ p=1 ('

where q is the number of tied groups and tp is the number of data values in the pth group.
The values of S and VAR (S) are used to compute the test statistic Zmk as follows

" S −1
$ if S > 0
$$ VAR(S)
Z mk = #0 if S = 0 (3)
$ S +1
$ if S < 0
$% VAR(S)

The presence of a statistically significant trend is evaluated using the Z value and it has a normal
distribution. A positive value of Zmk indicates an increasing trend with time. To test for an upward monotonic
trend at significance level α, H0 is rejected and Hα is accepted if Zmk ≥ Z1- α where Z1- α is 100(1-
α)thpercentiles of the standard normal distribution. For a downward monotonic trend, H0 is rejected and Hα is
accepted if Zmk ≤ - Z1- α.

In MAKESENS, α is the four tested significance levels

*** if trend α = 0.001 at level of significance
** if trend α = 0.01 at level of significance
* if trend α = 0.05 at level of significance
+ if trend at α = 0.1 level of significance

The blank cell indicates the significance level is greater than 0.1. The significance level 0.001 signifies that
there is 0.1% probability that a mistake has been made when rejecting H0 of no trend and the values xi are
from a random distribution. Thus, the significance level of 0.001 means that the existence of a monotonic
trend is feasible. Significance level of 0.001 also signifies as confidence level of 99.9%.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

The daily rainfall data from 1984 to 2013 collected from Brunei Metrological Department for the rainfall
station located at Brunei International Airport are used in this study to identify the rainfall trends for a period
of last 30 years. The average rainfall during this period per year is 2976 mm with a standard deviation of 516
mm. Figure 2(a) illustrates that there is an increasing trend of the total annual rainfall with 26.16 mm/year on
average. By contrast with the present average rainfall of 2570 mm, this is an increase of 1.02% per year. From
the analysis of monthly rainfall data shown in Table 1, the month of January has average rainfall of 284
mm/month with an increasing trend of 6.02 mm/month. Its standard deviation is 197 mm. This indicates high
chaotic rainfall pattern and high possibilities of floods to occur in January. Similarly, there is high average
amount of rainfall in October (311 mm/year), November (328 mm/year), and December (332 mm/year), with a
decreasing trend of 1.25, 0.58 mm/month and increasing trend of 3.49 mm/ month respectively.

020034-3
 TABLE 1. Summary of the analysis of monthly rainfall data from 1984 to 2013.
Trend of Change in
1984-2013 Standard Maximum 1
Observed Duration of
Month Average Deviation hour Rainfall
Rainfall Rainfall
Rainfall (mm) (mm) (mm/year)
(mm/year) (hours/year)
January 284 197 6.02 0.29 1.96
February 172 128 4.74 0.81 1.01
March 137 91 4.94 0.56 1.63
April 240 87 4.21 0.20 1.06
May 258 129 -0.93 -0.41 0.20
June 212 107 0.48 -0.27 0.79
July 232 130 2.26 0.45 0.54
August 230 161 1.30 0.31 0.66
September 241 97 1.46 -0.26 0.67
October 311 114 -1.25 -0.08 0.19
November 328 96 -0.58 -0.47 0.80
December 332 136 3.49 0.16 1.39
Annual 2976 516 26.16 -0.15 10.89

y = 26.156x + 2570.3 y = 1.5695x + 108.13

5000 300

Annual Maximum Rainfall (mm)

Total Annual Rainfall (mm)

4500
250
4000
3500 200
3000
2500 150
2000
100
1500
1000
50
500
0 0
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012

1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Year Year

(a) (b)
y = -0.1537x + 76.766 y = -0.0275x + 4.5024
140 6.000
Average rainfall intensity
Annual max 1 hr rainfall

120 5.000

100
4.000
(mm/hr)

(mm/hr)

80
3.000
60
2.000
40

20 1.000

0 0.000
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012

1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012

Year Year

(c) (d)
FIGURE 2. The analysis of annual rainfall data in terms of (a) Trend of Total Annual Rainfall, (b) Trend of Annual
Maximum Rainfall, (c) Trend of Annual Maximum 1-hour Rainfall and (d) Trend of Average Rainfall Intensity.

In parallel to such continuing increases of the annual total rainfall and some of the monthly rainfalls, the
observed annual maximum rainfall also illustrates an increasing trend of 1.57 mm per day as illustrated in Fig.
2(b). For the 22 years between 1984 and 2005, the annual maximum rainfall exceeded 150 mm/day only three
times. However, within the last 8 years i.e. 2006 to 2013, the same 150 mm/day is exceeded four times. This
indicates that there are more events of high rainfall and they continue to be more frequent.Despite the
increasing trend of total annual rainfall, the maximum 1-hour rainfall in Fig. 2(c) illustrates a decreasing trend
with a rate of 0.15 mm/hr/year. This indicates that the rainfall will become more spread and even in time.
Nevertheless, the monthly rainfall is contrary to above observation shown in Table 1. The increasing trend of

020034-4
monthly rainfall described for the month of January is expected to be intensified due to the increasing trend of
hourly rainfall intensity at an average rate of 0.29 mm/hr/year. Similar increasing trend occurred for the
months of February, March, April, July, August and December.Similar to the trend of annual maximum 1-
hour rainfall, the average rainfall intensity has a decreasing trend with a magnitude of 0.028 mm/hr/year as
illustrated in Fig. 2(d). The average rainfall intensity is expressed as the total annual rainfall divided by the
total rainfall duration of the year, i.e. mm/hr/year.
Decline of rainfall intensity will reduce the flood peak and therefore, it is advantageous to the aspect of
drainage and floods. However, the intensity – flood relationship should be elucidated attentively because the
rainfall – runoff ratio determined by many other parameters such as land use, vegetation, soil, slopes etc.
Some of the catchments in Brunei Darussalam are subjected to minimal changes due to natural and manmade
effects. It is rational to accept and conclude that the discharge load on the drainage becomes uniformly
distributed in time in such situations. This is necessary in order to reduce the instantaneous peak, as it is more
relevant to high intensity rainfalls within short time periods. It is emphasized here that the increasing rainfall
will result in increasing runoff [6]. Briefly, according to the accumulated observations computed up to this
point, the average runoff has increasing trend corresponding to the increasing trend of rainfall.
Simultaneously, it will have lower and lower instantaneous peaks. It is well established that the climate change
will result in an increase to the rainfall intensities. However, the reason on why the rainfalls in Brunei
Darussalam behaving inconsistently are ambiguous.

y = 10.891x + 572.15 y = 0.0297x + 3.05

1200 4.500
Total annual rainfall duration

Average rainfall duration

4.000
1000
3.500
800 3.000

(hrs/day)
(hrs/yr)

2.500
600
2.000
400 1.500
1.000
200
0.500
0 0.000
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012

1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Year Year

(a) (b)
y = 1.3831x + 187.73 y = 0.065x + 13.849
300 30
Maximum rainfall duration (hrs)

250 25
of rainy days

200 20
Number

150 15

100 10

50 5

0 0
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012

1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012

Year Year

(c) (d)
FIGURE 3. The analysis of annual rainfall data in terms of (a) Trend of Total Annual Rainfall Duration, (b) Trend of
Average Rainfall Duration, (c) Trends of Number of Rainy Days per Year and (d) Trend of Maximum Rainfall Duration.

In the occasion when the average rainfall intensities are decreased and the annual rainfall is increased
simultaneously, an increase in the rainfall duration is expected to occur. This interpretation is validated in the
analysis. The observed average annual rainfall duration of 741 hours/year has an increasing trend of 10.89
hours every year on average as illustrated in Fig. 3(a).
Similar trend is identified when analysing the trend of average duration of a rainfall spell. In Fig. 3(b), the
average duration of a rainfall spell in 1984 is about three hours whereas in 2011, it has reached almost four
hours at an increasing rate of 0.03 hours/occurrence per year. The increase of the total annual rainfall duration

020034-5
and the average duration of a rainfall spell as well as the increase of total rainfall will result in greater average
runoff per rainfall spells and hence a greater loading of drainage system with time.
Moreover, while the total rainfall duration increases uniformly, it is conducive to identify the trend of the
number of rainy days. Figure 3(c) illustrates an increase trend in the number of rainy days at a constant rate of
about 1.38 days per year.
Therefore, all parameters associated with the rainfall duration, which includes the number of rainy days,
total numbers of rainfall duration and the average rainfall duration in rainy days is observed to increase
simultaneously. Apart from these parameters, there is also an increase trend in maximum rainfall duration in a
day as illustrated in Fig. 3(d). It indicates that the increase of rainfall duration has a general tendency affecting
all rainfall.The associated increased loading on the drainage due to increased runoff is one of the
complications of this change in rainfall duration. The drainage systems are required to be reassessed based on
this information to observe and avoid the future repercussions. The increase of water logging in the flood
plains will be the predicted problem. This is due to insufficient time for the systems to drain the soil between
two consecutive rainfalls. Thus increase of soil moisture will affect certain vegetation. Paddy and other similar
seasonal plants may also have adverse effect on pollination due to shortened dry periods. The changing
rainfall patterns can have significant impacts on the sowing and harvesting times of crops [6] and changes in
crop yields and water requirements[17]. Particularly, rice being dependent on rain fed irrigation in Brunei
Darussalam; by estimating the changes in rainfall patterns and its effective use through water management can
increase rice production by two to three times [18].Table 2 summarises results of Mann-Kendall test of rainfall
data during the period of 1984 to 2013. According to the table, the annual total rainfall has a test statistic Zmk
value of 2.53, which is greater than 1.645 at a confidence level of 95%. This indicates that the annual total
rainfall has a statistically significant positive trend. Annual maximum rainfall has a test statistic Zmk value of
1.75, which is greater than 1.285 at a confidence level of 90%, thus this imply a statistically significant
positive trend. These variables have been increasing over time and the trend is likely to continue.

TABLE 2. Results of Mann-Kendall test for rainfall trends in 1984-2013.

Time Series Significance (α) Test Z (Zmk) Z1-α Interpretation Trend
Rainfall Trends
Total Annual Rainfall 0.05 2.53 1.645 Reject H 0 Increasing
Annual Maximum Rainfall 0.1 1.75 1.285 Reject H 0 Increasing
Total Annual Rainfall Duration 0.01 3.25 2.325 Reject H 0 Increasing
Average Rainfall Duration 0.01 3.21 2.325 Reject H 0 Increasing
Number of Rainy Days 0.01 3.12 2.325 Reject H 0 Increasing
Average Intensity of Rainfall 0.01 -2.89 2.325 Reject H 0 Decreasing
No Trends
Annual Maximum 1hour Rainfall > 0.1 -0.09 > -1.285 Accept H0 No Trend
Maximum Rainfall Duration > 0.1 1.04 < 1.285 Accept H0 No Trend

The total annual rainfall duration, average rainfall duration and the number of rainy days has test statistic
Zmk values of 3.25, 3.21 and 3.12 respectively, which are greater than 2.325 at a confidence level of 99%.
These reveal a statistically significant positive trend for the total annual rainfall duration, average rainfall
duration and the number of rainy days. The variables have been increasing over time and the trend will
continue in the future.The average rainfall intensity has a negative Zmk value, which illustrates a negative
trend. The test statistic Zmk value for the average rainfall intensity is -2.89, which is less than -2.325 at a
confidence level of 99%, thus this demonstrates a statistically significant negative trend and this trend may
continue to decrease over time.The annual maximum 1-hour rainfall has a negative Zmk value whereas the
maximum rainfall duration has a positive Zmk value. The test statistic Zmk value for annual maximum 1-hour
rainfall is -0.09, which is greater than -1.285, thus indicating a statistically insignificant negative trend at a
confidence level of less than 90%. The maximum rainfall duration has a test statistic Zmk value of 1.04, which
is less than 1.285, thus implying a statistically insignificant positive trend at a confidence level of less than
90%. These demonstrate that the changes for these both variables would not be noticeable.

020034-6
 y = 0.0314x + 26.667
28.5

Average Annual Temp (oC)

28.0

27.5

27.0

26.5

26.0

25.5

1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Year

FIGURE 4. Trend of average annual temperature.

The daily temperature data for the year 1979 to 2013 from Brunei Metrological Department are collected
and analysed in this study to identify the temperature trends for past 35 years. The daily temperature data are
divided into daytime, i.e. 6.00 to 18.00 hours and nighttime i.e. 18.00 to 06.00 hours of the next day. Figure 4
illustrates that the annual temperature has an increasing trend of 0.031oC/year on average. A rise of 1.1oC in
average annual temperature has been observed from 1979 to 2013. Table 3 illustrates the linear trends of
monthly temperature observed at weather station located at Brunei International Airport.

TABLE 3. Summary of the analysis of temperature data from 1979 to 2013.

Average Average Maximum
Average Maximum Minimum Minimum
Annual Night Night
Month Day Temp Day Temp Day Temp Night Temp
Temp Temp Temp
(oC) (oC) (oC) (oC)
(oC) (oC) (oC)
January 0.028 0.028 0.017 0.064 0.031 0.029 0.044
February 0.031 0.025 0.010 0.083 0.036 0.022 0.066
March 0.025 0.015 -0.010 0.085 0.035 0.006 0.074
April 0.021 0.012 -0.001 0.062 0.029 0.008 0.047
May 0.029 0.019 0.012 0.069 0.040 0.005 0.053
June 0.037 0.025 0.013 0.068 0.049 0.011 0.055
July 0.040 0.030 0.008 0.088 0.050 0.004 0.071
August 0.038 0.026 0.017 0.067 0.051 0.033 0.059
September 0.035 0.024 0.011 0.044 0.046 0.055 0.043
October 0.030 0.024 0.010 0.055 0.044 0.028 0.049
November 0.030 0.022 0.024 0.057 0.038 0.033 0.046
December 0.033 0.030 0.032 0.060 0.037 0.046 0.059
Annual 0.031 0.023 0.003 0.078 0.041 0.041 0.067

The annual average temperature during the day shows an increasing trend of 0.023oC/year and during the
night shows an increasing trend of 0.041oC/year as illustrated in Fig. 5(a) and Fig. 5(b) respectively. It can be
seen that the average annual temperature for nighttime has increased at faster rate than the daytime. However,
the warming has been neither steady nor the same throughout the different season.

020034-7
 y = 0.0233x + 28.153 y = 0.0405x + 25.165
29.4 27.0

Average Night Temp. (oC)

29.2

Average Day Temp. (oC)

26.5
29.0
28.8
26.0
28.6
28.4 25.5
28.2
25.0
28.0
27.8
24.5
27.6
27.4 24.0
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013

1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Year Year

(a) (b)
25.0
y = 0.0778x + 20.031 23.0
y = 0.0665x + 20.217

Min. Night Temp (oC)

22.0
Min. Day Temp (oC)

20.0

21.0
15.0
20.0
10.0
19.0

5.0 18.0

0.0 17.0
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013

Year Year

(c) (d)
FIGURE 5. The analysis of annual temperature data in terms of (a) Trend of Annual Average Daytime Temperature, (b)
Trend of Annual Average Night time Temperature, (c) Trend of Annual Minimum Daytime Temperature and (d) Trend of
Annual Minimum Night time Temperature.

To a greater extent, the annual minimum temperatures during both day and night time also illustrate
increasing trends. In comparison with the annual maximum temperature, the rate of change in annual
minimum temperature illustrates much higher in magnitude. Annual minimum day temperature increases at a
rate of 0.08oC/year shown in Fig. 5(c) whereas the annual minimum night temperature in Fig. 5(d) shows an
increasing rate of 0.07oC/year. It is likely that higher maximum temperatures with higher minimum
temperatures have resulted into increase in the number of hot days.
An increase in temperature is detrimental to the environment. Higher temperature has an impact on the
rainfall condition. The volume of rainfall depends on the amount of atmospheric water vapour. As the
atmospheric temperature gets higher, the amount of atmospheric water vapour increases, thus increasing the
chance of heavy downpours. Summer thunderstorms intensified more quickly at elevated temperatures,
generally temperatures about 12 to 20oC [19].
The results of Mann-Kendall analysis for temperature are summarised in Table 4. All of the temperature
variables have positive trends, except the annual maximum temperature during daytime. The maximum
temperature during daytime has test statistic Zmk value of 0.56, which is less than 1.285 at a confidence level
of less than 90%. This indicates that an insignificant positive trend is demonstrated by maximum daytime
temperature. This increase in maximum daytime temperature would not be noticed and hence no trend was
detected.The annual average temperature, average day time temperature, minimum day time temperature,
average night time temperature and minimum night time temperature have test statistic Zmkvalues of 5.62,
5.14, 4.42, 5.77 and 4.63 respectively, which are greater than 3.1 at a confidence level of 99.9%. The Zmk
value for maximum nighttime temperature is 2.04, which is greater than 1.645 at a significant level of 95%.
These reveal that there is a statistically significant positive trend for the variables. The variables have been
increasing over time and the trend will continue in future.

020034-8
 TABLE 4. Results of Mann-Kendall test for temperature trends in 1979 to 2013.
Time Series Significance (α) Test Z (Zmk) Z1-α Interpretation Trend
Temperature
Annual Average 0.001 5.62 3.1 Reject H0 Increasing
Average Daytime 0.001 5.14 3.1 Reject H0 Increasing
Minimum Daytime 0.001 4.42 3.1 Reject H0 Increasing
Average Night time 0.001 5.77 3.1 Reject H0 Increasing
Minimum Night time 0.001 4.63 3.1 Reject H0 Increasing
Maximum Night time 0.05 2.04 1.645 Reject H0 Increasing
No Trend
Maximum Daytime > 0.1 0.56 < 1.285 Accept H0 No Trend

CONCLUSION
This study evaluated and investigated the various trends relating to the observed rainfall from 1984 to 2013
and the observed atmospheric temperature from 1979 to 2013 for Brunei Darussalam. The analysis shows that
the variations of some rainfall patterns are high. The annual rainfall has increased significantly at a rate of
26.16 mm per annum. Mann-Kendall test for rainfall data reveals an increasing trend at confidence level of
95% for the annual total rainfall and confidence of level 90% for annual maximum rainfall. The total annual
rainfall duration, average rainfall duration and the number of rainy days also indicated a positive trend at a
confidence level of 99%. The variables have been increasing over time and the trend will continue in the
future. The annual maximum 1-hour rainfall and the average rainfall intensity has decreasing trends. However,
the annual maximum 1-hour rainfall has an insignificant negative trend whereas the maximum rainfall
duration has an insignificant positive trend. This rainfall pattern is distributed variably throughout the year.
This study revealed that all variables related to temperature showed positive trends. The analysis of
average annual temperature demonstrated a significant increasing trend over the last 35 years i.e. 1979 to 2013
at a rate of 0.031oC per year. This increment is integrated with the increasing trend in annual average
temperature of both during daytime and nighttime at a rate of 0.023oC and 0.041oC per year respectively.
Results of Mann-Kendall test for temperature data indicate a positive trend at a confidence level of 99.9% for
the annual average temperature, average day time temperature, minimum day time temperature, average night
time temperature and minimum night time temperature and a positive trend at a confidence level of 95% for
maximum night time temperature. However, no trend was observed for the maximum day temperature. An
increase in temperature will increase the rate of evaporation and cloud formation, which increases the amount
of rainfall sequentially.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This study is a part of the Master research work of the first author conducted at Institute of Technology,
InstitutTeknologi Brunei (ITB). We would like to acknowledge the Brunei Darussalam Meteorological
Services for providing significant and valuable data for this research. Furthermore, we would like to express
our gratitude to the developers of the MAKESENS program for providing this model at no cost. We would
also like to extend thanks to Brunei Research Council (BRC), Department of Economic Planning and
Development (DEPD) of Brunei and ITB for giving consent to conduct this research work as well as providing
the financial support.

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