Total Cost

Data for Problem Prob. of Success Months Monthly Cost ($000)

New Materials
Material Testing .90 6 50 300
Molding Process .75 6 160 960
Conventional Materials
Normal Basis 1.00 12 150 1,800
Accelerated Basis 1.00 6 400 2,400

"Bonus" for New Materials 0 (cost reduction)

Conventional
1,800
1,800 1,800

.90
Material Testing Success
1,260
Material Testing 0 1,260

300 1,500 .10

Material Testing Failure
.75 3,660
Molding Process Success 2,400 3,660
1
0 1,500 .90
Material Testing Success
2,160
Mat. Testing & Start Conventio0 2,160
Molding Process First
1,200 2,250 .10
960 1,815 Material Testing Failure
3,060
900 3,060

.25
Molding Process Failure
2,760
1,800 2,760

.75
Conventional Molding Process Success
1 1,260
1800 Molding Process 0 1,260

960 1,860 .25

Molding Process Failure
.90 3,660
Material Testing Success 2,400 3,660
1
0 1,860 .75
Molding Process Success
2,160
Molding & Start Conventional 0 2,160
Material Testing First
1,860 2,385 0.25
300 1,884 Molding Process Failure
3,060
900 3,060

.10
Material Testing Failure
2,100
1,800 2,100

.75
Molding Process Success
0.90 1,260
Material Testing Success 0 1,260

0 1,710 .25
Molding Process Failure
Both in Parallel 3,060
1,800 3,060
1,260 1,845
0.10
Material Testing Failure
3,060
1,800 3,060

TreePlan Student License, For Education Only TreePlan.com

 ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
0 0 TreePlan 0 0 0D 4 1 2 9 18 0 32 1 TRUE
0 1 0 0T 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 TRUE
0 2 0 0E 2 3 4 0 0 0 20 5 TRUE
0 3 2D 2 5 6 0 0 0 14 9 TRUE
0 4 2T 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 9 TRUE
6 5 0 3E 2 7 8 0 0 0 9 13 TRUE
0 6 0 3E 2 23 24 0 0 0 19 13 TRUE
23 7 5T 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 17 TRUE
24 8 5T 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 17 TRUE
0 9 0 0E 2 10 11 0 0 0 45 5 TRUE
0 10 9D 2 12 13 0 0 0 39 9 TRUE
0 11 9T 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 9 TRUE
0 12 0 10 E 2 14 15 0 0 0 34 13 TRUE
0 13 0 10 E 2 16 17 0 0 0 44 13 TRUE
0 14 12 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 17 TRUE
0 15 12 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 17 TRUE
0 16 13 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 17 TRUE
0 17 13 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 17 TRUE
0 18 0 0E 2 19 20 0 0 0 63 5 TRUE
0 19 18 E 2 21 22 0 0 0 59 9 TRUE
0 20 18 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 9 TRUE
0 21 19 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 13 TRUE
0 22 19 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 62 13 TRUE
23 6T 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 17 TRUE
24 6T 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 17 TRUE

TreePlan Student License, For Education Only TreePlan.com

 Total Cost
Data for Problem Prob. of Success Months Monthly Cost ($000)
New Materials
Material Testing .90 6 50 300
Molding Process .75 6 160 960
Conventional Materials
Normal Basis 1.00 12 150 1,800
Accelerated Basis 1.00 6 400 2,400

"Bonus" for New Materials 0 (cost reduction)

Value with Info 1651.5 (from below) Conventional

Value without Info 1800 (from earlier worksheet) 1,800
1,800 1,800

EVPI -148.5 1.00

Material Testing Success
1,260
Material Testing 0 1,260

300 1,260 .00

Material Testing Failure
.75 3,660
Molding Process Success 2,400 3,660
1
0 1,260 1.00
Material Testing Success
2,160
Mat. Testing & Start Conventio0 2,160
Molding Process First
1,200 2,160 .00
960 1,635 Material Testing Failure
3,060
900 3,060

.25
Molding Process Failure
2,760
1,800 2,760

.90 .75
Material Testing Success Molding Process Success
2 1,260
0 1,635 Molding Process 0 1,260

960 1,860 .25

Molding Process Failure
1.00 3,660
Material Testing Success 2,400 3,660
1
0 1,860 .75
Molding Process Success
2,160
Molding & Start Conventional 0 2,160
Material Testing First
1,860 2,385 0.25
300 1,860 Molding Process Failure
3,060
900 3,060

.00
Material Testing Failure
2,100
1,800 2,100

.75
Molding Process Success
1.00 1,260
Material Testing Success 0 1,260

0 1,710 .25
Molding Process Failure
Both in Parallel 3,060
1,800 3,060
1,260 1,710
0.00
Material Testing Failure
3,060
1651.5 1,800 3,060

Conventional
1,800
1,800 1,800

.00
Material Testing Success
1,260
Material Testing 0 1,260

300 3,660 1.00

Material Testing Failure
.75 3,660
Molding Process Success 2,400 3,660
2
0 3,060 .00
Material Testing Success
2,160
Mat. Testing & Start Conventio0 2,160
Molding Process First
1,200 3,060 1.00
960 2,985 Material Testing Failure
3,060
900 3,060

.25
Molding Process Failure
2,760
1,800 2,760

.10 .75
Material Testing Failure Molding Process Success
1 1,260
0 1,800 Molding Process 0 1,260

960 1,860 .25

Molding Process Failure
.00 3,660
Material Testing Success 2,400 3,660
1
0 1,860 .75
Molding Process Success
2,160
Molding & Start Conventional 0 2,160
Material Testing First
1,860 2,385 0.25
300 2,100 Molding Process Failure
3,060
900 3,060

1.00
Material Testing Failure
2,100
1,800 2,100

.75
Molding Process Success
0.00 1,260
Material Testing Success 0 1,260

0 1,710 .25
Molding Process Failure
Both in Parallel 3,060
1,800 3,060
1,260 3,060
1.00
Material Testing Failure
3,060
1,800 3,060

TreePlan Student License, For Education Only TreePlan.com

 ID Name Value Prob Pred Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 Row Col Mark
0 0 TreePlan 0 0 0E 2 25 26 0 0 0 67 1 TRUE
27 1 0 25 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 TRUE
28 2 0 25 E 2 3 4 0 0 0 20 9 TRUE
29 3 2D 2 5 6 0 0 0 14 13 TRUE
30 4 2T 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 13 TRUE
31 5 0 3E 2 7 8 0 0 0 9 17 TRUE
32 6 0 3E 2 23 24 0 0 0 19 17 TRUE
33 7 5T 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 21 TRUE
34 8 5T 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 21 TRUE
35 9 0 25 E 2 10 11 0 0 0 45 9 TRUE
36 10 9D 2 12 13 0 0 0 39 13 TRUE
37 11 9T 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 13 TRUE
38 12 0 10 E 2 14 15 0 0 0 34 17 TRUE
39 13 0 10 E 2 16 17 0 0 0 44 17 TRUE
40 14 12 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 21 TRUE
41 15 12 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 37 21 TRUE
42 16 13 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 42 21 TRUE
43 17 13 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 47 21 TRUE
44 18 0 25 E 2 19 20 0 0 0 63 9 TRUE
45 19 18 E 2 21 22 0 0 0 59 13 TRUE
46 20 18 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 13 TRUE
47 21 19 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 57 17 TRUE
48 22 19 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 62 17 TRUE
49 23 6T 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 21 TRUE
50 24 6T 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 21 TRUE
26 25 0D 4 1 2 9 18 0 32 5 TRUE
0 26 0D 4 27 28 35 44 0 102 5 TRUE
27 0 26 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 72 9 TRUE
28 0 26 E 2 29 30 0 0 0 90 9 TRUE
29 28 D 2 31 32 0 0 0 84 13 TRUE
30 28 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 97 13 TRUE
31 0 29 E 2 33 34 0 0 0 79 17 TRUE
32 0 29 E 2 49 50 0 0 0 89 17 TRUE
33 31 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 77 21 TRUE
34 31 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 82 21 TRUE
35 0 26 E 2 36 37 0 0 0 115 9 TRUE
36 35 D 2 38 39 0 0 0 109 13 TRUE
37 35 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 122 13 TRUE
38 0 36 E 2 40 41 0 0 0 104 17 TRUE
39 0 36 E 2 42 43 0 0 0 114 17 TRUE
40 38 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 102 21 TRUE
41 38 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 107 21 TRUE
42 39 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 112 21 TRUE
43 39 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 117 21 TRUE
44 0 26 E 2 45 46 0 0 0 133 9 TRUE
45 44 E 2 47 48 0 0 0 129 13 TRUE
46 44 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 137 13 TRUE
47 45 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 127 17 TRUE
48 45 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 132 17 TRUE
49 32 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 87 21 TRUE
50 32 T 0 0 0 0 0 0 92 21 TRUE

TreePlan Student License, For Education Only TreePlan.com

EVPI on Material Testing

Scenario Probability EV in Scenaro Optimal Action

Material Testing Success 0.90 1,635 Molding Process First <--- From Tree with P(Mat. Test. Succ.) =1
Material Testing Failure 0.10 1,800 Conventional <--- From Tree with P(Mat. Test. Succ.) =
EV with Perfect Info 1,651.5 Calculated here

Original EV 1,800 Conventional <--- From Tree with P(Mat. Test. Succ.) =

EV of Perfect Info -148.5 Reduction in Expected Costs

EVPI on Molding Process

Scenario Probability EV in Scenaro Optimal Action

Molding Process Success 0.75 1,344 Material Testing First <--- From Tree with P(Mold. Proc. Succ.) =
Molding Process Failure 0.25 1,800 Conventional <--- From Tree with P(Mold. Proc. Succ.) =
EV with Perfect Info 1,458 Calculated here

Original EV 1,800 Conventional <--- From Tree with P(Mold. Proc. Succ.) =

EV of Perfect Info -342 Reduction in Expected Costs

Tree with P(Mat. Test. Succ.) =1
Tree with P(Mat. Test. Succ.) = 0

Tree with P(Mat. Test. Succ.) = .90

in Expected Costs

Tree with P(Mold. Proc. Succ.) =1

Tree with P(Mold. Proc. Succ.) = 0

Tree with P(Mold. Proc. Succ.) = .75

in Expected Costs