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Distribution
2
X2 =
(n − 1) S 2
(8-8)
2
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Distribution
2
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Confidence Interval on the Variance and Standard Deviation
(n −1)s2 (n − 1) s 2
and
(8-10)
n−1
−n−1
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Example 8-7 Detergent Filling
An automatic filling machine is used to fill bottles with liquid detergent. A random
sample of 20 bottles results in a sample variance of fill volume of s2 = 0.01532.
Assume that the fill volume is approximately normal. Compute a 95% upper
confidence bound.
( n − 1) s 2
2
2
( 20 −1) 0.0153
10.117
2 0.0287
X − np Pˆ − p
Z= =
np(1 − p) p (1 − p)
n
is approximately standard normal.
The quantity p(1− p) / n is called the standard error of the point estimator P̂.
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Approximate Confidence Interval on a Binomial Proportion
pˆ (1 − pˆ ) pˆ (1 − pˆ )
pˆ − z p pˆ + z (8-11)
n n
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Example 8-8 Crankshaft Bearings
A point estimate of the proportion of bearings in the population that exceeds the
roughness specification is pˆ = x / n = 10/ 85 = 0.12.
pˆ (1 − pˆ ) pˆ (1 − pˆ )
pˆ − z0.025 p pˆ + z0.025
n n
0.12 ( 0.88) 0.12 ( 0.88)
0.12 − 1.96 p 0.12 + 1.96
85 85
0.0509 p 0.2243
Interpretation: This is a wide CI. Although the sample size does not appear to
be small (n = 85), the value of is fairly small, which leads to a large standard
error for contributing to the wide CI.
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Choice of Sample Size
Sample size for a specified error on a binomial proportion :
2
z
n= (0.25) (8-13)
E
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Example 8-9 Crankshaft Bearings
Consider the situation in Example 8-8. How large a sample is required if we want
to be 95% confident that the error in using p̂ to estimate p is less than 0.05?
Using pˆ = 0.12 as an initial estimate of p, we find from Equation 8-12 that the
required sample size is
2 2
z 1.96
n = 0.025 pˆ (1 − pˆ ) = 0.12(0.88) 163
E 0.05
If we wanted to be at least 95% confident that our estimate p̂of the true proportion
p was within 0.05 regardless of the value of p, we would use Equation 8-13 to find
the sample size
2 2
z0.025 1.96
n= (0.25) = (0.25) 385
E 0.05
Interpretation: If we have information concerning the value of p, either from a
preliminary sample or from past experience, we could use a smaller sample while
maintaining both the desired precision of estimation and the level of confidence.
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Approximate One-Sided Confidence Bounds on a Binomial Proportion
pˆ (1 − pˆ ) pˆ (1 − pˆ )
pˆ − z p and p pˆ + z (8-14)
n n
respectively.
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8-5 Guidelines for Constructing Confidence Intervals
Table 8-1 provides a simple road map for appropriate calculation of a
confidence interval.
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8-6 Tolerance and Prediction Intervals
8-6.1 Prediction Interval for Future Observation
1 1
x − tn −1 s 1 + X n + 1 x + tn −1 s 1 + (8-15)
n n
The prediction interval for Xn+1 will always be longer than the confidence
interval for .
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Example 8-11 Alloy Adhesion
The load at failure for n = 22 specimens was observed, and found that x = 13.71
and s = 3.55. The 95% confidence interval on was 12.14 15.28. Plan to test a
23rd specimen.
1 1
x − tn−1s 1 + X n+1 x + tn−1s 1 +
n n
13.71 − (2.080)3.55 1 + X 23 13.71 + (2.080)3.55 1 +
1 1
22 22
6.16 X 23 21.26
Interpretation: The prediction interval is considerably longer than the CI. This is
because the CI is an estimate of a parameter, but the PI is an interval estimate of a
single future observation.
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8-6.2 Tolerance Interval for a Normal Distribution
x − ks, x + ks
where k is a tolerance interval factor found in
Appendix Table XII. Values are given for = 90%,
95%, and 99% and for 90%, 95%, and 99%
confidence.
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8-6.2 Tolerance Interval for a Normal Distribution
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Example 8-12 Alloy Adhesion
The load at failure for n = 22 specimens was observed, and found that x = 13.71
and s = 3.55. Find a tolerance interval for the load at failure that includes 90% of
the values in the population with 95% confidence.
From Appendix Table XII, the tolerance factor k for n = 22, = 0.90, and 95%
confidence is k = 2.264.
( x − ks , x + ks )
[13.71− ( 2.264) 3.55 , 13.71+ ( 2.264) 3.55]
(5.67 , 21.74)
Interpretation: We can be 95% confident that at least 90% of the values of load at
failure for this particular alloy lie between 5.67 and 21.74.
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Example 1:
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Example 1:
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Example 2:
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Example 2:
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Example 3:
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Example 3:
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Example 4:
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Example 4:
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Example 4:
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Example 4:
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Example 5:
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Example 5:
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Example 6:
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Example 6:
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Example 7:
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Example 8:
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Example 9:
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Example 10:
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