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Applied Geography 91 (2018) 99–110

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Applied Geography
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/apgeog

Environmental predictors of forest change: An analysis of natural T


predisposition to deforestation in the tropical Andes region, Peru
Vincent Baxa,∗, Wendy Francesconib
a
Universidad de Ciencias y Humanidades, Av. Universitaria 5175, Los Olivos, Lima39, Peru
b
International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Av. La Molina 1895, La Molina, Lima, Peru

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: The spatial patterns of deforestation are usually non-randomly distributed across the landscape. While anthro-
Forest cover change pogenically driven processes are often addressed in land-use regulation policies and deforestation research, less
Conservation areas attention is given to the environmental factors that influence tropical deforestation. This study investigates to
Environmental deforestation drivers what extent climate conditions (temperature and precipitation) and biophysical landscape characteristics (ele-
Tropical montane forests
vation, slope, soil type, forest type, and distance to rivers) facilitate or mitigate deforestation processes in Peru's
Random Forest
tropical Andes. A Random Forest regression model was constructed for the entire Peruvian tropical Andes, and
separate models were developed for some of the known direct deforestation drivers in the region (coca pro-
duction, gold mining, and land-use by indigenous and non-indigenous communities). Soil type and precipitation
were identified as the most important deforestation predictors when the entire Peruvian tropical Andes was
considered, whereas distance to rivers was associated with deforestation by mining activities, and elevation and
temperature with coca cultivation areas. Using the regression results, a Random Forest classification model was
constructed to locate areas where the composition of environmental factors could either facilitate or mitigate
deforestation processes. It was found that almost 85% of the forests classified as having high to very high
probability to deforestation were located outside current protected areas. In order to increase conservation
impacts, the results suggest that greater consideration should be given to the distribution of environmental
factors when designing land-use regulation policies and establishing protected areas.

1. Introduction (Soares-Filho et al., 2013), in particular the lowland Amazon basin and
forests located at the Andean foothills will experience extensive forest
Ongoing processes of forest destruction across tropical regions pose losses in the future, whereas forest recovery could be expected in the
a major threat to biodiversity, climate stability and the functioning of highland forests of the Andean mountain range (Middendorp, Pérez,
biogeochemical and hydrological cycles (Bonan, 2008; Malhi et al., Molina, & Lambin, 2016; Sanchez-Cuervo & Aide, 2013a). These dy-
2008). In spite of the worldwide recognition of this environmental namics of Neotropical forest cover change will largely shape the future
problem and the implementation of manifold initiatives to halt further well-being of people relying directly on forest ecosystem services.
reduction of tropical forest areas, the rates of deforestation in the tro- In the last decades, substantial efforts have been made by re-
pics have remained consistently at high levels (Achard et al., 2014; searchers to determine why forest change happens and why the patterns
Sloan & Sayer, 2015). Much attention goes to the tropical forest eco- and rates of forest change vary across the landscape (Rudel, 2007). An
systems in Central and South America, which harbor some of the important contribution to the deforestation literature is the work by
world's greatest amounts of species diversity (Poveda, Álvarez, & Geist and Lambin (2002), which conceptualizes the dynamics between
Rueda, 2011; Ribeiro et al., 2011, pp. 405–434) and constitute the fundamental social processes such as population changes, and human
largest portion of the global terrestrial carbon sink (Pan et al., 2011). activities or actions at the local level with direct impacts on forest cover
Between 2000 and 2010, the extent of forest cover in Central and South such as logging and agricultural expansion. Proximate causes and un-
America shrunk by approximately 55,000 km2 per year, with important derlying driving forces typically relate to anthropogenic systems,
deforestation hotspots located in northern Argentina, southeastern however, environmental factors are also recognized to play a crucial
Bolivia, western Paraguay and the Brazilian Amazon (Aide et al., 2013). role in the process of forest cover change. Geist and Lambin (2002)
According to recent land-use change scenarios for the Neotropics reviewed 152 subnational case studies from the tropical belt, out of


Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: vbax@uch.edu.pe (V. Bax), w.francesconi@cgiar.org (W. Francesconi).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.01.002
Received 16 October 2017; Received in revised form 29 December 2017; Accepted 9 January 2018
Available online 06 February 2018
0143-6228/ © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
V. Bax, W. Francesconi Applied Geography 91 (2018) 99–110

which a third reported a link between deforestation and factors asso- information on Andean ecosystems remains limited (Armenteras et al.,
ciated with the biophysical environment, including a range of land- 2011; Zuluaga & Rodewald, 2015). In particular, very few studies have
scape attributes and climate variables. The effect of these environ- analyzed deforestation practices in the Peruvian Andes region. Current
mental factors is linked to human behavior at the local level, as they set rates of forest cover change and hotspot locations in the Peruvian Andes
the necessary conditions for land-use change processes to occur, and are not provided in the scientific literature, and the drivers associated
place physical thresholds on the types of land-use practices that are with these changes are not clearly understood (Robiglio, Armas, Silva
feasible in a region (Aide et al., 2013). While this emphasizes the im- Aguad, & White, 2014). Nonetheless, the tropical Andes have been
portance of considering landscape elements and climate conditions at identified as the most critical biodiversity hotspot on the planet in
local scales, the mainstream deforestation literature is particularly or- terms of plant and vertebrate species richness (Myers, Mittermeier,
iented towards analyzing the political, economic, and social context in Mittermeier, Da Fonseca, & Kent, 2000), which emphasizes the im-
which forest change processes occur (Jusys, 2016; Lambin et al., 2001; portance of investigating deforestation dynamics in this region. More
Robinson, Holland, & Naughton-Treves, 2014; Rudel, Defries, Asner, & specifically, the objectives of this study were to 1) identify and examine
Laurance, 2009). the environmental factors that facilitate or mitigate deforestation in the
Nonetheless, a great variety of models have been developed tropical Peruvian Andes; 2) analyze the influence of these environ-
throughout the years to describe the role of the natural environment in mental factors on some of the known direct deforestation drivers in the
the deforestation process (Busch & Ferretti-Gallon, 2017; Kaimowitz & region; and 3) map the areas where the natural landscape facilitates or
Angelsen, 1998). The environmental variables commonly included in mitigates deforestation.
models relate to land accessibility, land suitability and climate varia-
bility. Landscape characteristics that provide natural access routes to 2. Methods
forests include rivers and lakes (Salonen, Toivonen, Cohalan, &
Coomes, 2012), especially in areas where roads and other infrastructure 2.1. Study area
is scarce (Armenteras, Rudas, Rodriguez, Sua, & Romero, 2006). Fur-
thermore, forests located along the coastline that were better accessible Peru's tropical forest region can be disaggregated into the lowland
were found to be subjected to more deforestation compared to main- Amazon consisting of humid forests at low elevations, the northern
land forests (Rudel & Roper, 1996). Elevation and slope gradients have coast region consisting of dry forests, and the tropical Andes region
been associated with forest accessibility and deforestation as well (Bax, consisting of sub-tropical forests located along the eastern slopes and
Francesconi, & Quintero, 2016), although they particularly determine valleys of the Andean mountain range. The Peruvian tropical Andes are
the suitability of the land for productive activities (Pope et al., 2015). located between coordinates 3˚5′10 South, 79˚1′15 West, 14˚29′24
Higher sloped terrain is less attractive for agriculture, given that har- South and 68˚49′37 West, with most of the forests located at elevations
vests are generally lower (Barrowclough et al., 2016) and working the ranging from 500 up to 3000 m.a.s.l. (MINAM, 2015). The tropical
land requires greater efforts and resources (Grau, Kuemmerle, & Andes extend over approximately 190,000 km2, which represents about
Macchi, 2013). The relationship between deforestation and topography 15% of the national territory (Fig. 1). Rainfall varies considerably, from
is likely to become weaker through time when low-lying lands become 300 mm to 6000 mm per year, with the wettest areas found in the south
scarcer and exhausted, leaving people no other choice but to move to and the center at elevations between 500 and 800 m.a.s.l. Peru's Min-
steeper areas. Deforestation induced by the suitability of the land is also istry of the Environment distinguishes twenty-three different types of
determined by the quality of the soil, mainly within the context of mature forest within the elevation range of 500–3000 m.a.s.l., including
agricultural production (Laurance et al., 2002), and by forest type tropical floodplain forests, high terraces, palm tree forests and cloud
(Chowdhury, 2006), given the potential preferences of loggers for tree forests (MINAM, 2015). Other natural ecosystems include Andean sa-
species with high economic value (Asner et al., 2005). Climate also vanna vegetation and grasslands mainly located at higher elevations.
seems to affect deforestation through local variations in precipitation, Soils with good biophysical properties for agricultural production, in-
temperature, and dry season severity. Precipitation and dry season se- cluding eutric and dystric cambisols (FAO-Unesco, 1990, p. 60) are
verity can either have a hindering or an enabling effect: less rainfall found at lower elevations along the eastern edge of the tropical Andes
results in dryer forests which are easier to burn (Aragao et al., 2008) and in central regions of the San Martín and Junín departments.
while deficit or excessive rainfall tends to reduce crop yields (Grau, Peru currently comprises a total of 40 national parks, communal
Gasparri, & Aide, 2005). On the other hand, areas characterized by reserves, national monuments and protected forests, out of which 22
moderate local temperatures provide desirable conditions for estab- are partly or completely located within the tropical Andes, covering
lishing human settlements, which transform the natural landscape about 25% of the area. Road density in the region is relatively low
(Armenteras, Rodríguez, Retana, & Morales, 2011). (8 km per 100 km2) owing to the highly sloped and arboreal landscape.
Given that the tropical Andes region is characterized by a great In consequence, the region is sparsely populated: an estimated 1.2
variation in altitude, forest structure, temperature and rainfall patterns, million people (INEI, 2015) are scattered over hundreds of small set-
the way in which land cover transformations are being undertaken tlements and a few bigger urban centers such as the cities of Rioja and
could be related to these environmental attributes. A better under- Moyobamba in the San Martín department, and the city of Tingo María
standing of nature's influence on deforestation decision making (here located in Huánuco. The rural population can be subdivided in in-
defined as the decision of land-managers to conserve or convert forest) digenous inhabitants who originate from the region, and non-in-
is needed, as it is currently not adequately addressed in land-use reg- digenous or colonist communities from varying regions of Peru. Rural
ulation policies (Joppa & Pfaff, 2009; Miteva, Pattanayak, & Ferraro, livelihoods are largely based on small scale and commercial agriculture,
2012). However, studies specifically focusing on the environmental as well as livestock farming activities. Some of the principal crops in-
dimensions of deforestation are scarce. Generally more attention is clude coffee, which is produced at elevations ranging from 700 to
given to human-related drivers and causes. To the best of our knowl- 1200 m.a.s.l. primarily in the departments of Junín, Cusco, and San
edge, the work by Rolett and Diamond (2004) may be the best known Martín (Tulet, 2010); while rice and cassava are primarily cultivated in
study that focuses on the effect of predisposing environmental factors San Martín, Loreto and Amazonas (INEI, 2014), and maize in San
on forest transitions. Hence, understanding the biophysical and climate Martín, Huánuco, Loreto and Junín (INEI, 2014). The tropical Andes are
context of forest cover change in the highly diverse landscape of the marked by a long history of widespread cultivation of illicit coca leaves,
Andean mountains could advance our understanding of montane forest with massive impacts on forests and other biological diversity. The
management. Furthermore, most studies on deforestation in the Neo- production of cocaine has been accountable for large scale ecosystem
tropical region focus on lowland Amazon ecosystems, while degradation in the Cusco region in the 1960s (Dourojeanni, 1992) and

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V. Bax, W. Francesconi Applied Geography 91 (2018) 99–110

Fig. 1. Distribution and extent of forest areas in the


Peruvian tropical Andes (approximately 500–3000 m.a.s.l.).

in Huánuco and the Upper Huallaga Valley in San Martín since the Peruvian tropical Andes up to the year 2017, at a 30 m resolution. To
1980s (Young, 1996). Although coca cultivation takes place throughout globally estimate and confirm the reliability of the final deforestation
the entire Peruvian tropical Andes, current production sites are con- layer, extensive visual inspection of Landsat 7 ETM+ satellite imagery
centrated in the valleys of the Apurímac, Ene and Mantaro Rivers, lo- with less than 10% cloud cover from the period 2012–2017 along with
cated in between the departments of Cusco, Huancavelica and Aya- Google Earth imagery from 2017 was carried out. All other natural land
cucho. Other known deforestation drivers include fossil fuel extraction cover types within the tropical Andes (< 2%) were removed from the
(Cuba, Bebbington, Rogan, & Millones, 2014), with most of the active final layer as our analysis specifically focused on the transition from
oil and gas projects located in the center and the south of the tropical forest to non-forest areas. In addition, all areas located at elevations
Andes. In addition, informal artisanal gold mining activities take place beyond 3000 m.a.s.l. were excluded from further analysis.
in the far north of the department of Amazonas (Alvarez-Berríos & Aide,
2015) and in the south of the Madre de Dios department (Swenson,
2.3. Environmental predictors of deforestation
Carter, Domec, & Delgado, 2011).
Spatial datasets for several candidate biophysical and climate pre-
2.2. Forest change 2017 dictor variables were collected from different data sources (Table 1).
The relevance of taking these variables into account in the analysis was
A 2011 nationwide land cover layer produced by Peru's Ministry of assessed based on a preliminary literature review focused on defor-
the Environment (MINAM, 2015) was used as a base-line map to estation in the Neotropics and tropical mountain regions (e.g.
compare forest and non-forest areas and to identify the broad variety of Armenteras et al., 2011; Laurance et al., 2002). The datasets were im-
forest types found in the tropical Andes. This layer was produced on the ported into ArcGIS and pre-processed in order to transform raw data
basis of Landsat 5 TM satellite imagery from 2011 at 30 m resolution, into suitable formats for later analyses (Table 1). A fishnet polygon grid
combined with RapidEye and Google Earth imagery at approximately composed of 22,680 cells of 9 km2 was generated and used as an
5 m resolution. Vegetation cover change datasets based on satellite overlay surface to extract the spatial data for the deforestation and
detection, from Global Forest Watch (Hansen et al., 2013) and Terra-i candidate predictor variables into a tabular database. At this spatial
(Reymondin et al., 2012), were imported into ArcGIS version 10.1 to scale, sufficient level of detail is provided to effectively relate the spa-
identify deforestation sites between 2011 and 2017. These datasets tial patterns of deforestation activity to the environmental variables
were projected to the WGS 1984 UTM Zone 18 S coordinate system, examined, while ensuring correct alignment of the different predictor
clipped to the region of interest, and merged with the MINAM land variable and deforestation datasets, which could be problematic in
cover map. This resulted in a layer representing deforestation in the fragmented landscapes (Kaimowitz, Mendez, Puntodewo, & Vanclay,

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V. Bax, W. Francesconi Applied Geography 91 (2018) 99–110

Table 1
Details of the spatial data used in this study.

Dataset Date Source Scale Data processing procedure

Response variable
Deforestation (%) 2011–2017 MINAMb, Terra-ic, GFWd 30 m Merge of datasets into deforestation layer
Biophysical predictor variables
Elevation (m.a.s.l.) 2011 ASTER GDEM V2e 30 m Set negative elevation values to null
Slope (degrees) 2011 ASTER GDEM V2e 30 m Identify rate of maximum change in z-value in elevation layer
Distance to rivers (meters) 2011 MINAMb 30 m Euclidean distance to river
Soil type (classes) 1981 ONERNf 15 classesa Polygon to raster layer
Mature forest type (classes) 2011 MINAMb 23 classesa Polygon to raster layer
Climate predictor variables
Annual precipitation (mm/year) 1970–2000 WorldClim V2g 30 s Merge of datasets into average annual precipitation raster layer
Average temperature (°C) 1970–2000 WorldClim V2g 30 s Merge of datasets into average annual temperature raster layer

a
Classes are provided in the supplementary material.
b
Ministerio del Ambiente (MINAM, 2015).
c
Terra-i (Reymondin et al., 2012).
d
Global Forest Watch (Hansen et al., 2013).
e
Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global DEM V2 (NASA METI, 2011).
f
Oficina Nacional de Evaluación de Recursos Naturales (ONERN, 1981).
g
WorldClim Global Climate Data (Fick & Hijmans, 2017).

2002, pp. 41–65). For cells without remaining forest cover, the value community types was compared. Georeferenced point data of legally
for mature forest type could not be extracted, which resulted in missing entitled communities was used to locate the communities. To ensure a
data (5% of the dataset). To account for this, the missing forest type fair land-use comparison, only 9 km2 grid cells with either an in-
values were imputed using the bagImpute function implemented in the digenous community or a non-indigenous community were selected for
caret package within the R statistical software (R Development Core the analysis. Other RF deforestation models developed looked at co-
Team, 2016). caine production in the departments of Huánuco, Ucayali, Ayacucho
To better understand the potential relation between the selected and Cusco, and artisanal gold mining in the south of Madre de Dios. For
environmental variables and deforestation, a number of spatially ex- both cocaine production and artisanal gold mining sites, data selection
plicit Random Forest (RF) (Breiman, 2001) regression models were was based on available cartographic material of the most affected re-
constructed using the randomForest package in R. This method was gions. Models for other known deforestation drivers including hydro-
selected owing to its outstanding predicting performance, its abilities to carbon extraction could not be developed due to data limitations.
deal with non-parametric and categorical data, its build-in measures to To run the models, two input parameters need to be specified: ntree
rank the relative importance of predictor variables and its robustness to (the number of trees to grow) and mtry (the number of variables used to
spatial autocorrelation, overfitting and correlated predictor variables split each node). To specify the models, we set the ntree parameter to
(Evans, Murphy, Holden, & Cushman, 2011, pp. 139–159; Svetnik et al., 2000 to ensure stable results (500 trees is the default) and we de-
2003). While particularly popular for land cover classification and termined the optimal value for mtry by dividing the number of pre-
ecological applications (e.g. Nanni, Gasparri, & Grau, 2015), RF has dictors (7) by 3 as suggested by Liaw and Wiener (2002). To measure
been used in a number of prior studies to assess the effect of predictor variable importance, the percentage of increase in Mean Square Error
variables on land cover change (e.g. Oliveira, Oehler, San-Miguel- (MSE) was computed by randomly permuting OOB data for a given
Ayanz, Camia, & Pereira, 2012; Sánchez-Cuervo & Aide, 2013b). variable while leaving the other variables unchanged. Analysis of par-
A RF model is composed of a combination of decision trees. The tial dependence plots for each of the predictor variables was carried out
individual trees are generated on the basis of bootstrapped training to estimate its direction and magnitude on the response variable.
samples consisting of approximately two thirds of the dataset (in our
case the values for deforestation and environmental predictors ex- 2.4. Natural predisposition to deforestation
tracted from the 9 km2 grid cells). Within each tree, a random subset of
environmental predictor variables is selected to determine the split. To locate the areas where natural characteristics embedded in the
This generates a diverse set of decision trees which is needed to reduce landscape either facilitate or mitigate the deforestation process in the
correlation between trees and the associated generalization error Peruvian tropical Andes, a probabilistic Random Forest classification
(Breiman, 2001). To solve regression problems with a RF, the output model was developed using the R statistical program. To our knowl-
values of each individual tree are averaged to determine the final de- edge, only Di Lallo, Mundhenk, Zamora López, Marchetti, and Köhl
forestation predictions. The remaining training data, approximately a (2017) used RF for predicting deforestation probability, and hence,
third of the original dataset called out-of-bag (OOB), is employed to the full potential of this approach is yet to be explored. RF classifi-
validate the prediction accuracy. cation differs from RF regression, since the final prediction in the re-
A model for the entire tropical Andes was developed using all sponse variable is determined by majority vote instead of averaging
22,680 observations in the dataset. In addition, separate models were the output values of each individual tree (Liaw & Wiener, 2002).
developed to characterize some of the most important known direct Raster datasets for the seven predictor variables (Table 1) were re-
deforestation drivers in the region (Piu & Menton, 2014) (Table 2). We sampled to a pixel size of 30 × 30 m and merged into a multi-band
developed deforestation models associated with indigenous and non- raster image. Based on the deforestation raster dataset, a data sample
indigenous communities as a proxy for land-use variables such as composed of 6000 forest and 6000 deforested sites was selected to
agriculture and livestock. Indigenous and non-indigenous communities train the model, using a random points data layer generated in ArcGIS.
were modeled separately, since indigenous communities are believed to The same values for the input parameters ntree and mtry were spe-
engage in less destructive forest management practices and livelihoods cified as used for the RF regression models (2000 and 2 respectively).
compared to those adopted by non-indigenous communities (Porro, The resulting model was applied to generate a deforestation prob-
Lopez-Feldman, & Vela-Alvarado, 2015). To verify this, the average ability map based on natural elements of the landscape. Four classes
accumulative deforestation within a radius of 5 km from both were defined, ranging from very high to very low deforestation

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probability, using the natural break classification scheme to determine

Asner, Llactayo, Tupayachi, and Luna (2013)


the threshold pixel values (Pourtaghi, Pourghasemi, & Rossi, 2015).
To assess deforestation probability in protected areas, the extent of the
pixels belonging to each of the four classes within and outside pro-
tected areas was calculated in ArcGIS. Classification accuracy was
evaluated using the OOB estimate of error rate, where lower estimates
imply higher accuracies.

3. Results
Data source

UNODCb

The merge of the MINAM land cover map with the Global Forest
Watch and Terra-i datasets yielded a layer representing deforestation in
IBCa

IBCa

the Peruvian tropical Andes until the year 2017 (Fig. 2). On the basis of
this layer, the total extent of cleared forests equaled 44,200 km2, which
corresponds to 23% of the studied area. Between 2011 and 2017, more
environmental context of land-use change near non-indigenous

than 1150 km2 of forests were converted into other land-uses, yielding
environmental context of deforestation in the tropical Andes
environmental context of land-use change near indigenous

an annual deforestation rate of 19,300 ha per year (0.1%). This implies


that compared to the previously reported rate of 0.5–1.0% during the
1990–1997 period (Achard et al., 2002), deforestation in the Peruvian
tropical Andes has decreased. The most severely affected areas are lo-
environmental context of artisanal gold mining

cated in the departments of San Martín, Huánuco and Junín. In these


environmental context of coca production

areas, local deforestation rates of 2% were estimated by this study. In


contrast, the forests in the very north and the very south have been less
vulnerable to deforestation, which is reflected by lower deforestation
rates of about 0.2%. Protected areas show little change in land cover
compared to non-protected areas, with local deforestation rates ranging
from 0.02% to 0.04%.

3.1. Environmental predictors of deforestation

Based on the seven environmental variables included in the tropical


Model description

Andes RF model, 67% of the variance in deforestation could be ex-


plained. The model returned a mean of squared residuals equivalent to
Examines the
Examines the

Examines the

Examines the
Examines the
communities

communities

0.04. The OOB error rate estimates were used to measure and rank the
importance of the selected environmental variables in predicting de-
forestation in the tropical Andes (Fig. 3). Soil type and average annual
precipitation were identified as the most important predictors, re-
Dataset size (9 km2 grid cells)

flecting the extensive agricultural-based livelihood systems across most


of the region. The variable representing the type of forest ecosystem has
a marginal effect on deforestation as shown by the low percentage of
increase in MSE. Also the variables for slope, elevation and temperature
seem to have a limited impact on deforestation. Concurrently, ex-
cluding these variables from the analysis reduced the explanatory
22,680

power of the model only by 5%, 3% and 3% respectively, which con-


401

108

387
141

firms their relatively lower effect to the overall model performance.


Partial dependence plots were generated and inspected to interpret
Huánuco, Ucayali, Ayacucho and Cusco

the effect of single variables on the presence of deforestation. The


partial dependence plots of the continuous variables included in the
Throughout the tropical Andes

Throughout the tropical Andes

model (Fig. 4) show that most deforestation occurs at slopes lower than
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC, 2016).

20°, at altitudes lower than 2000 m.a.s.l., in areas with precipitation


Peruvian tropical Andes

less than 2000 mm/year and average temperatures greater than 20 °C.
Further, the impact of rivers was found to follow a U-shaped curve:
deforestation decreases as the proximal distance to rivers increases. Yet,
Madre de Dios

Instituto del Bien Común Peru (IBC, 2016).

there is a turning point at around 12 km, where deforestation increases


Location

as also the distance to rivers increases, reaching a plateau at around


35 km. The partial dependence plots for the categorical variables (soil
type and mature forest type; Fig. 4) are composed of simple bar charts.
Random Forest regression models.

In particular areas associated with eutric cambisols (CMe–VRe) seem to


Non-indigenous communities

be prone to deforestation. Eutric cambisols are mainly located in the


Indigenous communities

department of San Martín and are composed of fertile soils with high
Artisanal gold mining

agricultural potential (FAO-Unesco, 1990, p. 60). As far as forest types,


Coca production
Tropical Andes

the model identified subtropical low-hill forests with bamboo (bosque


de colina baja con paca; Bcb–pa) as most vulnerable, whereas sub-
tropical upland forests (bosque de colina alta; Bca) and high terraces
Model
Table 2

forests (bosque de terraza alta; Bta) are among some of the forest types
b
a

subjected to lower deforestation pressures.

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Fig. 2. Deforestation status in 2017 in the Peruvian tropical


Andes.

Remarkably, forest type was not a prominent factor explaining defor-


estation activities in the tropical Andes, neither for indigenous nor for
non-indigenous communities. Average accumulative deforestation
within a radius of 5 km from the location of non-indigenous commu-
nities was substantially higher compared to deforestation near in-
digenous communities (70% and 44% respectively), indicating more
extensive pressures on the forests in the surroundings of non-indigenous
communities. At the same time, the environmental variables explained
a greater portion of variance in the deforestation near non-indigenous
than near indigenous communities (64% and 54% respectively).
The deforestation model for coca leaf production explained 82% of
the variance in deforestation. Elevation and average temperature were
the most important predictors, with the most susceptible regions lo-
Fig. 3. Random Forest regression results showing the relative importance of environ- cated at an elevation range between 500 and 1500 m.a.s.l. and average
mental variables in estimating deforestation. temperature range of 18–24 °C. Further, in contrast to the other models,
the distance to rivers variable presents a strictly positive correlation,
indicating that more deforestation takes place further away from rivers.
Separate deforestation models were developed to characterize some The artisanal gold mining model output showed that only 33% of
of the known deforestation drivers in the tropical Andes (see Table 3). the variance in deforestation could be explained on the basis of the
The model results for indigenous and non-indigenous communities environmental variables studied. Hence, the extraction of metals seems
presented similar environmental conditions in which deforestation oc- to be undertaken irrespective of landscape and climate features such as
curs. For both types of communities, precipitation and soil type were slope and rainfall. In turn, the southern Madre de Dios region is char-
among the most important predictors, corroborating the output pro- acterized by high rainfall patterns (5000–6000 mm per year) and poor
vided by the tropical Andes model. The influence of rivers seems to be soil fertility, which mitigates the potential for agricultural production.
more important for indigenous communities than for non-indigenous A strong negative correlation with increased distance to rivers was
ones, as reflected by the higher increase of MSE and the narrower determined, as the small scale mining operations are usually carried out
distance range to the nearest river (5 km and 14 km respectively). in rivers and alongside the riverbanks.

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Fig. 4. Partial dependence plots for continuous variables (slope, distance to rivers, average temperature, average annual precipitation and elevation) and categorical variables (mature
forest type and soil type), showing the marginal effect on deforestation. The values on the y-axis represent the average of all deforestation predictions (as a decimal fraction) for a given
value on the x-axis. Tick marks on the x-axis of continuous variable plots indicate the data distribution across the variable range in deciles.

3.2. Natural predisposition to deforestation attractive environmental conditions for forest conversion. Prone areas
are located in the northern half of San Martín and in the central/south
A RF classifier was applied to identify the areas in the tropical Andes of Cusco. Both departments are characterized by fertile soils and low
where natural elements in the landscape facilitate deforestation pro- precipitation rates. In contrast, in the far southeast of the tropical Andes
cesses and where they mitigate deforestation. The RF classification (Madre de Dios, Puno and the east of Cusco) where overall deforesta-
model yielded a kappa coefficient of 0.63 and an overall classification tion as well as current rates are relatively low, the natural landscape
accuracy of 81.4, indicating that more than 80% of the forest and de- seems to contribute to mitigating deforestation activities.
forestation pixels was classified correctly. The deforestation probability Based on the four deforestation probability classes, the extent of the
map generated is shown in Fig. 5. Red and orange shaded areas indicate forests with low or very low probability equals about 105,000 km2. On
a combination of environmental factors that could positively influence the other hand, an area of about 40,000 km2 was classified as having
deforestation decision making, while the areas in blue represent less high or very high deforestation probability (Table 4). Out of the forests

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V. Bax, W. Francesconi Applied Geography 91 (2018) 99–110

Table 3
Random Forest output for the separate models for indigenous communities, non-indigenous communities, coca production and artisanal gold mining. The values for range/class reflect
where deforestation occurs for the respective variable. An unspecified class for soil type or forest type (–) indicates that deforestation occurs to a similar extent in areas associated with
any given type of soil or forest.

Indigenous communities Non-indigenous communities Coca production Artisanal gold mining

Range/class %Inc MSE Range/class %Inc MSE Range/class %Inc MSE Range/class %Inc MSE

Soil type Eutric cambisols 75.8 Eutric cambisols and regosols 43.5 Eutric regosols and leptosols 47.5 – 5.6
Precipitation (mm) < 2000 54.5 < 2000 35.2 1000–3500 41.8 4500–5500 10.3
Slope (degrees) < 25 29.5 < 25 13.8 < 30 54.2 < 10 12.3
Elevation (m.a.s.l.) > 700 43.0 500–1500 28.2 < 2000 58.8 < 700 14.6
Rivers (km) < 12 53.1 <5 10.1 >3 45.0 <2 23.5
Temperature (˚C) < 23 72.2 < 23 23.6 > 18 56.0 > 22 13.0
Forest type – 13.7 – 12.8 – 21.6 – 6.9
%Var explained 54.2 63.6 82.2 32.6

with high to very high probability to deforestation, owing to the


identified predisposing environmental conditions, only 20% and 11%
respectively are located within existing protected areas. This implies Table 4
Deforestation probability based on natural landscape characteristics within and outside
that more than 32,000 km2 of forest with high or very high deforesta-
protected areas.
tion probability are located outside protected areas. In contrast, 29%
and 44% of forest areas classified as having low and very low defor- Total area Protected forests Non-protected
estation probability respectively, given their soil suitability for agri- (km2) (%) forests (%)
culture, precipitation and river access characteristics, have been de-
Very low probability 62,944 44 56
signated as protected area. Low probability 41,771 29 71
High probability 25,321 20 80
4. Discussion Very high probability 13,815 11 89
Current non-forest area 45,709 2 98
(incl. water bodies)
It is well known that the geophysical variation in topography, cli-
mate and natural access routes such as rivers significantly influences

Fig. 5. Deforestation probability based on natural landscape fea-


tures.

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V. Bax, W. Francesconi Applied Geography 91 (2018) 99–110

the spatial patterns of human population and settlement distribution slope (< 30°) and elevation (< 2000 m.a.s.l.). These habitat conditions
(Lung, Lübker, Ngochoch, & Schaab, 2013; Small & Cohen, 2004). With correspond to an optimal environment for coca cultivation in the tro-
respect to the Andes, archeological evidence points to a very long his- pical Andes (Dillehay et al., 2010), pushing coca farming activities to
tory of human occupation of the subtropical Andean forests, especially particular locations. Although coca cultivation also takes place in other
at elevations below 1500 m.a.s.l. where environmental conditions are regions in Peru (i.e. the lowland Amazon basin), policy interventions in
more conducive to agricultural production and permanent settlement the tropical Andes could be targeted based on these environmental
(Brush, 1982). With the arrival of the Spaniards in the early 1500s, criteria. Proximal river distance had a positive correlation with coca
intensive land-use systems have been introduced (Turner & Butzer, production sites. Given the illegal nature of coca cultivation, production
1992); traces of which are still apparent in today's Andean landscapes. sites seem to be located in remote and isolated regions away from rivers
In agreement with the land-use history in neighboring Andean regions and perhaps other connecting networks such as roads.
(Erickson, 1999; Etter & van Wyngaarden, 2000), the environmental Also examined, indigenous and non-indigenous communities across
circumstances for initial settlement and the Hispanic colonization of the tropical Andes carry out deforestation activities in locations that
Peru's tropical Andes have certainly influenced the way in which land- have similar environmental conditions. Nonetheless, the impact on
use trajectories have changed over time. forest cover near non-indigenous communities was found to be much
The results provided by the Random Forest model for the entire more extensive than near indigenous communities (average accumu-
Peruvian tropical Andes show that more than two-thirds of the variance lative deforestation of 70% versus 44% respectively). Contrary to ex-
in deforestation can be explained by the environmental factors ex- pectations, it was not possible to establish a strong link between the
amined. While soil type and rainfall were identified as strong predictor type of forest and deforestation. This suggests that there is not a clear
variables, topographic characteristics such as slope, elevation and the preference among land-managers to convert a certain type of mature
location of water bodies had a relatively lower influence in deforesta- forest into other land-uses. Nonetheless, particular non-indigenous
tion decision making. The importance of environmental factors may be communities, mainly composed of migrants from other regions in Peru,
associated with the agricultural-based livelihood systems found within are known to engage in logging operations with dramatic effects on
the tropical Andes region. Fertile soils such as eutric cambisols increase forest cover (Young & León, 2000). Historically, widespread selective
crop yields while rainfall determines the viability of the land for logging has been an important economic activity in Peru's tropical
farming. The best soils for agriculture are found in the department of Andes and Amazon regions (White, 1978). These logging practices are
San Martín. Not surprisingly, San Martín has the highest deforestation more likely to take place in forest types that include tree species with
rates in Peru, driven by a large-scale production of rice, coffee, palm oil high commercial value such as mahogany and cedar (Kometter et al.,
and cacao (INEI, 2014). In terms of precipitation distribution in the 2004). Yet, valuable tree species may exist in different forest ecosys-
region, high rainfall values can be damaging to crop root systems, tems (Brown, Jennings, & Clements, 2003; Dauber, Fredericksen, &
leading to reduced agricultural yields. Furthermore, abundant rainfall Peña, 2005), which could explain why selective logging may not be
in sloped areas induces soil erosion which makes the land less suitable restricted to a particular forest type. Bamboo species for instance,
for farming (Harden, 2001). At the same time, seasonal lower rainfall which have traditionally been used as construction material in Peru
facilitates forest clearing and burning in slash-burn agricultural prac- (Escamilla & Habert, 2014), preponderate in five different forest types
tices. Considering the precipitation gradient found in the Peruvian as classified by Peru's Ministry of the Environment (MINAM, 2015). On
tropical Andes ranges from 300 to 6000 mm/year (with about 7% of the the other hand, attractive areas for agriculture, given their favorable
area receiving less than 1000 mm/year), our results indicate that de- slope, precipitation and soil quality conditions, coincide with a broad
forestation was more evident at the lower end of the precipitation range of forest types. This could further explain why forest clearing for
spectrum (i.e. less than 2000 mm/year). This is reflected by the largely agriculture occurs irrespective of the type of forest ecosystem. More-
negative correlation with deforestation as shown in the partial depen- over, other factors including the distance to settlements and logging
dence plot generated in this study. The lower precipitation areas are roads, land-tenure and the likelihood of government intervention may
located on the western flank at elevations varying from 1500 to influence agricultural expansion and the timber harvesting behavior of
3000 m.a.s.l. In addition to agriculture, other land-use practices could loggers (Finley-Brook, 2007; Walker et al., 2013).
be responsible for the large scale forest conversion in these areas. Young Considering the spatial and temporal dimensions of deforestation is
and León (2000) point out that Peruvian montane forests in the ele- important when designing conservation measures (Apan, Suarez,
vation range between 1500 and 2500 m.a.s.l. are attractive for timber Maraseni, & Castillo, 2017). As relatively little attention is paid to en-
extraction and for the establishment of unimproved pastures, which are vironmental drivers in the deforestation literature, in turn their influ-
activities that might be less dependent on rainfall conditions. While ence on deforestation decision making is not well addressed in existing
socioeconomic, institutional and cultural factors may drive deforesta- land-use management plans and regulation efforts, which are important
tion in the tropical Andes, the results of this study provide evidence that for the conservation of ecosystem services such as water provisioning
also the favorable combination of environmental factors affects defor- (Francesconi, Uribe, Valencia, & Quintero, 2017). Priority regions for
estation decision making in places such as San Martín. the establishment of protected areas are commonly justified on the
In contrast, the lands of Madre de Dios and Puno were found to be basis of two considerations: (1) the presence of vulnerable and rare
environmentally unattractive for farming, which is confirmed by low species, and (2) the vulnerability of the landscape to change (Rodrigues
deforestation rates and extensive areas of in-tact primary forest cover. et al., 2004). Meanwhile, Joppa and Pfaff (2009) have showed that
In Madre de Dios however, informal gold mining is an important ac- globally protected areas are usually located in higher, steeper, more
tivity causing deforestation. This activity seems to be less dependent on remote and agriculturally unsuitable areas. Also in the tropical Andes, a
landscape or climate characteristics, given that rather the geologic lo- large portion of the current protected area network is located in areas
cation of metals and possibly other mineral resources such as oil and where the natural landscape already deters deforestation probability. In
gas determines where deforestation occurs. Proximal river distance contrast, almost 85% of the remaining forest areas in the region that are
seems to be the only environmental factor that influences where gold classified as having high to very high vulnerability to deforestation are
mining is taking place, as shown by the Random Forest model results located outside protected areas (these classes correspond to a third of
presented in this study. The common sites for coca production, another all forests outside protected areas). Certainly, other considerations in-
known direct deforestation driver in the Peruvian tropical Andes, pre- cluding opportunity, practicality, cost and/or politics may influence the
sented stronger associations with the natural landscape. We found that selection of areas to designate for protection (Rodríguez & Young,
coca cultivation in Huánuco, Ucayali, Ayacucho and Cusco is bound to 2000), which could be an explanation for the location bias of current
specific environmental conditions in terms of temperature (> 18 °C), protected areas in the tropical Andes. Since the year 2000, the Peruvian

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V. Bax, W. Francesconi Applied Geography 91 (2018) 99–110

government expanded the protected area network within the tropical region emphasize the importance of assessing deforestation drivers at
Andes by 60% to increase conservation efforts of Peru's biological re- local scales.
sources. Regardless, better targeting of protected areas, taking into This study suggests that a greater consideration of environmental
account the potential and physical limits of lands for productive ac- factors as predictors of land-use patterns in regions of highly diversified
tivities would contribute to greater conservation impacts. natural landscapes such as Peru's tropical Andes, could improve land-
A localized assessment of forest areas that are vulnerable to defor- use regulation policies such as forest zone designation and the estab-
estation and degradation is needed for conservation planning and for lishment of protected areas. Yet, meeting the needs of forest users
regulating the sustainable use of forest resources (Etter, McAlpine, without jeopardizing the functioning of ecosystems along with the
Wilson, Phinn, & Possingham, 2006). Given that land-use change pro- provisioning of ecosystem services constitutes a major challenge in
cesses occur within a specific spatial context, the development of local current policy and decision making. Rational and well-informed forest
models focusing on demarcated areas and distinct deforestation drivers management supported by empirical research will be critical for the
could be more relevant to policy interventions at local or regional safeguarding of the remaining tropical forest resources and the nu-
government levels, compared to models that assume homogeneity merous livelihoods relying on them.
across different regions. With the implementation of a reformed forest
and wildlife law in 2015 (law N˚ 29763), Peru's Ministry of Agriculture Conflicts of interest
initiated the process of forest-use zoning. Within this context, com-
prehensive information for rational forest management is obtained, None.
integrating ecological aspects in terms of soil and forest type, ecosystem
fragility and the distribution of biodiversity, with socioeconomic and Acknowledgement
cultural aspects linked to the human occupation and activity in forest
areas (MINAGRI, 2016). Considering biophysical factors and climate This work was supported by funding provided by Universidad de
conditions in the designation of forest zones should also be part of a Ciencias y Humanidades.
comprehensive approach. Biophysical factors and climate conditions
define many of the environmental limitations and production potentials Appendix A. Supplementary data
of land, while on the other hand, they influence the decision of land-
managers to convert forests into other uses. The results of this study Supplementary data related to this article can be found at http://dx.
support the use of soil quality characteristics and the variation in pre- doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.01.002.
cipitation rates as dominant factors explaining deforestation in the
tropical Andes. In addition, for localized deforestation drivers such as References
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