Computers and Chemical Engineering 163 (2022) 107831

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Computers and Chemical Engineering

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/compchemeng

Resilience assessment of the downstream oil supply chain considering

the inventory strategy in extreme weather events
Weilong Ni a, Yongtu Liang a,∗, Zhengbing Li a, Qi Liao a,∗, Siya Cai a, Bohong Wang b,
Haoran Zhang c, Yi Wang a
a
National Engineering Laboratory for Pipeline Safety/MOE Key Laboratory of Petroleum Engineering/Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Oil and Gas
Distribution Technology, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Fuxue Road No.18, Changping District, Beijing 102249, PR China
b
National-Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of Harbour Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation Technology/Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of
Petrochemical Pollution Control, Zhejiang Ocean University, No. 1 Haida South Road, Zhoushan 316022, P.R. China
c
Center for Spatial Information Science, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwashi, Chiba 277-8568, Japan

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: As climate change intensifies and extreme weather events occur more frequently, the uncertainties of
Received 5 January 2022 demand, production and inventory will affect the operation and management of supply chains. In this
Revised 1 April 2022
paper, a systematic method for evaluating the resilience of the supply chain is proposed, which is applied
Accepted 27 April 2022
to the demand side management of an actual downstream oil supply chain. According to the practical op-
Available online 29 April 2022
eration of the downstream oil supply chain, several scenarios such as disruption of refineries, shutdown
Keyword: of pipelines and increasing demand are defined. Then, two indices are introduced to make a quantita-
Extreme weather events tive resilience assessment for the studied downstream oil supply chain. The inventory strategy is also
Primary distribution proposed and applied to different scenarios. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation is used to make a compre-
Downstream oil supply chain hensive analysis with multiple scenarios. The results show that increasing the inventory of storage depots
Resilience can improve the resilience of the supply chain by 2.67% to 14.83%. According to the sensitivity analysis
Scenario analysis
for the failure rate and repair rate of each link, it is indicated that the resilience can be improved by
5.95% when the repair rate is doubled and be reduced to 16.04% when the repair rate is reduced by half.
© 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction represent a handful of EWEs that have a significant impact on the

1.1. Background
Supply disruptions, infrastructure failures and volatile market
demand caused by extreme weather events(EWEs) will affect the
operation and management of supply chains (Scheibe and Black-
hurst, 2017; Chen et al., 2015, 2021). Although the probability of
extreme weather events is small, they will have a huge impact on
social stability once they occur, as evidenced by recent EWEs that
have occurred around the world (Mariam et al., 2022). Heavy rains
and floods occurred frequently in 2010, which severely affected the
normal operation of oil and gas industries in the Niger Delta. These
events had a devastating influence on the population and infras-
tructure of the region (Udie and Ozawa-Meida, 2018). The hurri-
cane that occurred in 2017 not only caused extensive damage to
the U.S. infrastructure, but also brought about 300 billion dollars in
economic losses to industries and businesses (Derosa et al., 2019;
Stanberry and Aven, 2019). In summary, the above examples only
∗
Corresponding authors.
E-mail addresses: Liangyt21st@163.com (Y. Liang), qliao@cup.edu.cn (Q. Liao).
performance of supply chains, illustrating the necessity of devel-
oping a resilient energy supply chain under these uncertain events
(Baghalian et al., 2013; Klibi et al., 2010).
The resilience refers that the ability of a supply chain to
quickly recover to the normal performance from disruptions
(Sheffi, 2005; Clark, 2012). To construct a resilient supply chain
network, some strategies need to be adopted, including multi-
sourcing, capacity expansion, product substitution and backup fa-
cilities (Hossain et al., 2021). Chaudry et al. (2009) defined the re-
silience of the energy industry as the ability to build tolerance of
energy flow disturbance through rapid recovery or provide alterna-
tive means to meet energy demand. Managers always design a re-
silient energy supply chain to reduce the possibility of disruptions
in the face of EWEs (Jing et al., 2021; Jackson and Gunda, 2021). In
the United Kingdom, the positions of facilities are determined by
optimizing the water utilization of hydroelectric power plants. This
approach can reduce the interruption risk of power supply chain
when facing flood. Derosa et al. (2019) developed a stochastic op-
timization model by collecting the hurricane data of the United
States, which can analyze recommendations for the best short-
term and medium-term interventions in the face of storms. Glob-

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compchemeng.2022.107831
0098-1354/© 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
W. Ni, Y. Liang, Z. Li et al. Computers and Chemical Engineering 163 (2022) 107831

Nomenclature CTRD transport cost from refineries to SDs (CNY)

CTDC transport cost from SDs to RMs (CNY)
I set of refineries, denoted by index i CTRC transport cost from refineries to RMs (CNY)
J set of storage depots, denoted by index j CS shortage cost (CNY)
K set of retail markets, denoted by index k RD
Vt,n,i, volume of product o transported from refinery i to
j,o
N set of transportation modes, denoted by index n SD j by mode n during time period t (m3 )
O set of products, denoted by index o DC
Vt,n, volume of product o transported from SD j to RM k
j,k,o
T set of time periods, denoted by index t
by mode n during time period t (m3 )
Parameters RC
Vt,n,i,k,o volume of product o transported from refinery i to
RD
cn,o unit cost of product o transported from re- RM k by mode n during time period t (m3 )
finery to SD by mode n (CNY/m3 ·km) R
Vt,i,o volume of product o produced by refinery i during
DC
cn,o unit cost of product o transported from SD
time period t (m3 )
to RM by mode n (CNY/m3 ·km) R,depot
RC
Vt, j,o inventory of product o at refinery i at time node t
cn,o unit cost of product o transported from re-
finery to RM by mode n (CNY/m3 ·km) (m3 )
D,depot
li,RDj distance from refinery i to SD j (km) Vt, j,o inventory of product o at SD j at time node t (m3 )
C,depot
l DC
j,k
distance from SD j to RM k (km) Vt,k,o inventory of product o at RM k at time node t (m3 )
l RC distance from refinery i to RM k (km) lack
Vt,k,o shortage of product o at RM k during time period t
j,k
sRD binary parameter indicating product o can (m3 )
n,i, j
be transported from refinery i to SD j by
mode n
ally, oil is still the major source to produce energy. It is impor-
sDC
n, j,k
binary parameter indicating product o can
tant to ensure the stable operation of the downstream oil sup-
be transported from SD j to RM k by mode ply chain (DOSC), especially in the face of EWEs (Cardoso et al.,
n 2015; Jiang et al., 2019). Therefore, modeling and analysis methods
sRC
n,i,k
binary parameter indicating product o can are needed to design a resilient downstream oil supply chain to
be transported from refinery i to RM k by cope with the impact of random disruptions on the supply chain
mode n (Ivanov et al., 2019).
vR,
i,o
0
initial inventory of product o at refinery i Main purpose of this study is to propose a method to evalu-
(m3 ) ate the resilience of the DOSC under EWEs. The method considers
vD,
j,o
0
initial inventory of product o at SD j (m3 ) various abnormal scenarios related to the actual DOSC, including
vC, 0
initial inventory of product o at RM k (m3 ) disruption of refineries, shutdown of pipelines and demand uncer-
k,o
R,max R,min tainty. Meanwhile, a strategy is also proposed and applied to the
vi,o /vi,o maximum/minimum inventory of product
above scenarios to improve the resilience of the supply chain. Af-
o at refinery i (m3 ) ter giving the occurrence probability of the above scenarios, Monte
vD,
j,o
max D,min
/v j,o maximum/minimum inventory of product Carlo sampling method is used to evaluate the resilience of the
o at SD j (m3 ) supply chain.
vC,
k,o
max C,min
/vk,o maximum/minimum inventory of product
o at RM k (m3 ) 1.2. Literature review
vR,tra
n,i
max R,tra min
/vn,i maximum/minimum capacity of refinery
i to transport products through mode n Many studies have been carried out in the design and plan-
(m3 ) ning of the DOSC. The current research interest mainly focuses
vD,tra
n, j
max D,tra min
/vn, j maximum/minimum capacity of storage on reducing costs or increasing profits during the management
depot j to transport products through of the DOSC (Zhang et al., 2019, 2017; Wang et al., 2018).
mode n (m3 ) Lima et al. (2017) optimized the distribution of refined products
vD,demand demand of SD j for product o (m3 ) to maximize the profit of the DOSC under uncertainties of oil price
j,o
and demand. Wang et al. (2019) developed a mixed integer linear
vC,demand
k,o
demand of RM k for product o (m3 ) programming (MILP) model to optimize the route planning of new
vR,pro
i,o
max
maximum production of refinery i for pipelines on the existing DOSC. Their research showed that the op-
product o (m3 ) eration efficiency of the supply chain could be improved through
δ unit satisfaction cost(CNY) constructing new pipelines. Ghaithan et al. (2017) developed a
μ improvement coefficient when the inven- multi-objective model for the medium-term tactical decision of the
tory strategy is adopted DOSC. Their model could minimize the total costs and maximize
the total revenue and service levels. Zhang et al. (2019) combined
Decision variables a multi-scenario MILP model with Monte Carlo sampling for opti-
RD
Bt,n,i, binary variable indicating product o is transported
j,o mizing the DOSC. Their results showed that the stability and flex-
from refinery i to SD j by mode n during time pe- ibility of the supply chain could be substantially improved with
riod t less extra costs. However, the above research mainly concentrates
DC
Bt,n, binary variable indicating product o is transported
j,k,o on resource distribution when supply chain is in normal operation,
from SD j to RM k by mode n during time period t and does not consider the interruption risk brought by uncertain
RC
Bt,n,i,k,o binary variable indicating product o is transported events to supply chain (Wang et al., 2020).
from refinery i to RM k by mode n during time pe- With the increasing frequency of uncertain events in re-
riod t cent years, the vulnerability of the DOSC is gradually exposed
(Bell et al., 2020; Ehrenstein et al., 2019). Therefore, more and

2
W. Ni, Y. Liang, Z. Li et al.
more attentions are paid to the resilience of the DOSC. The re-
lated studies of the DOSC begin to focus on designing a resilient
supply chain that can be recovered in time when disruptions
occur (Zahiri et al., 2017; Sajid, 2021). As a preliminary study,
Carvalho et al. (2011) used the ratio of total cost and delivery
time to evaluate the performance of supply chains. The results
indicated that two strategies of redundancy and flexibility were
effective in reducing the negative effects of the disturbance on
supply chain performance. Subsequently, Klibi et al. (2012) de-
fined three types of risk events to describe plausible future supply
chain network environments. Through multi-hazards, vulnerability
sources and exposure levels, a three-phase hazard modeling ap-
proach was proposed to establish a resilient supply chain network.
Mari et al. (2014) proposed an approach based on multi-objective
goal programming to handle supply chain costs, carbon emissions
and disruption costs. A resilience factor was added into the design
of sustainable supply chain network to calculate the probability of
interruption risk in different places. Cardoso et al. (2015) proposed
a model to deal with the demand uncertainty. Their study was ap-
plied to five supply chains with different structures, and eleven
indicators were used to evaluate the performance of the supply
chains. The above research on interruption events only considers
the impact on the single component in the whole supply chain
(Panahi et al., 2020; Lawrence et al., 2020). However, multiple parts
of the supply chain can be disrupted simultaneously when uncer-
tain events occur.
From above, it can be concluded that most of the existing stud-
ies about the DOSC focus on its design and planning. There is
a lack of research on uncertain events in the planning process.
However, EWEs may simultaneously influence several parts of the
DOSC, causing greater damage. To fill the research vacancy on this
issue, this study develops a method to evaluate the resilience of
the DOSC under EWEs.
1.3. Contributions of this work
The contributions of this work are as follows:
(1) A method is proposed to evaluate the resilience with con-
sidering the actual interruptions of supply side and trans-
port infrastructure and demand uncertainty of demand side
in the DOSC.
(2) A strategy to increase the inventory of depots of the DOSC
is adopted to improve the resilience of the supply chain.
(3) Two indices are proposed, and the resilience of the DOSC
and market satisfaction under different interruption scenar-
ios are evaluated.
(4) Sensitivity analysis of failure rate and recovery rate of each
link is carried out, and the main factors affecting resilience
are pointed out.
1.4. Paper organization
The rest of the paper is structured as follows. Section 2 de-
scribes the studied problem in detail. In Section 3, a mathematical
model is established to simulate the primary distribution of the
DOSC, and several scenarios and indices are proposed for analysis.
The case study is described in Section 4, followed by the discussion
in Section 5. Finally, Section 6 gives the conclusion.
2. Problem description
Fig. 1 shows the distribution process of a downstream oil sup-
ply chain. Refined products are processed in refineries and trans-
ported to storage depots (SDs). Then, they will be distributed to
retail markets (RMs) by multiple transportation modes, or directly
3
Computers and Chemical Engineering 163 (2022) 107831
transported to RMs from refineries. The main transportation modes
in the system include rail, truck and pipeline. In this distribution
network, the occurrence of EWEs will lead to the complete or par-
tial disruption of refineries, interruption of transport infrastructure,
and sudden changes in the demand of RMs. This study assumes
that the relevant departments will actively repair the fault if sup-
ply disruption of refineries or shutdown of pipelines occurs. The
following five scenarios are discussed based on the above possible
events.
(1) Baseline
The definition of this scenario is to create a baseline for com-
parison with other scenarios. In this scenario, the production of
refineries and the demand of SDs and RMs for refined products
remain fixed during the scheduling horizon. To eliminate the in-
fluence of inventory on the distribution scheme, it is assumed that
the inventory of storage facilities at refineries, SDs and RMs is at
the minimum level. There is no disruption for refineries and ex-
isting transport routes. The distribution scheme under the normal
operation of the supply chain can be obtained.
(2) Disruption of refineries (DR)
Refineries are important components of the DOSC. The supply
disruption of refineries will have a great impact on the normal op-
eration of the DOSC. The decline of production may directly cause
the demand of RMs cannot be satisfied.
(3) Shutdown of pipelines (SP)
Pipeline is an important mode to transport refined products,
but this mode could be interrupted when EWEs occur. Unlike rail
or truck, pipeline has no alternative route. When a pipeline is in-
terrupted, it will cause the shutdown of the whole pipeline.
(4) Increase demand for RMs (IDR)
Demand for RMs may exceed the refinery production capacity
when EWEs occur, resulting in supply-demand imbalance.
(5) Comprehensive analysis (CA)
The scenarios listed above occur with a certain probability in a
DOSC. This study considers that there are only two states of refin-
ery in normal operation and overhaul. Refineries’ recoverability is
also taken into consideration. It means that refineries can be re-
stored and restarted after a period of maintenance. The same is
true for pipelines.
3. Methodology
3.1. Research framework
The framework of the proposed method for evaluating the re-
silience of the DOSC is presented in Fig. 2. Firstly, a mathematical
model is established to simulate the distribution of refined prod-
ucts in the DOSC. Through inputting the basic data into the devel-
oped model, the detailed distribution scheme can be determined.
Because EWEs can cause the abnormal operation of the DOSC, five
scenarios are defined to evaluate the impact of EWEs on the dis-
tribution network. The first is the baseline, which is used to obtain
the distribution scheme under the normal operation of the DOSC.
The second to fourth scenarios are used to evaluate the impact of
single abnormal event on the DOSC. The fifth scenario comprehen-
sively analyzes the above possible uncertain events in the DOSC
based on the Monte Carlo method. A strategy to improve the re-
silience of the DOSC by increasing the inventory of SDs is proposed
and brought into the above scenarios. Finally, we make a sensitiv-
ity analysis for the transport cost, satisfaction cost, and resilience
rate of the DOSC under all scenarios.
W. Ni, Y. Liang, Z. Li et al. Computers and Chemical Engineering 163 (2022) 107831

Fig. 1. The distribution process of a downstream oil supply chain.

Fig. 2. Framework of the proposed method.

4
W. Ni, Y. Liang, Z. Li et al. Computers and Chemical Engineering 163 (2022) 107831

3.2. Mathematical model 3.2.3. Transport constraints

The three main primary distribution routes in a DOSC are from
3.2.1. Objective function refineries to SDs, from SDs to RMs and from refineries to RMs.
The proposed mathematical model involves five sets: set of re- RD
Bt.n,i, is the binary variable indicating whether refinery i deliv-
j,o
fineries (I); set of storage depots (J); set of retail markets (K); set of ers product o to SD j by means of n during interval t. The binary
time nodes (T); set of products (O). The objective function of this variables Bt,n,DC RC
and Bt,n,i,k,o have the same meaning. These routes
j,k,o
model is to minimize the sum of four terms of costs, as shown in can only transport the product by one mode during each interval,
Eq. (1). The first term calculates the transportation cost from re- as stated by Eqs. (13)–(15).
fineries to SDs. The second term represents the transportation cost 
j,o ≤ 1, ∀t ∈ T , i ∈ I, j ∈ J, o ∈ O
RD
from SDs to RMs. The third term gives the transportation cost from Bt.n,i, (13)
refineries to RMs. The last term calculates the satisfaction cost ac- n∈N
cording to the relationship between the shortage and the actual 
j,k,o ≤ 1, ∀t ∈ T , j ∈ J, k ∈ K, o ∈ O
demand for RMs. The detailed equations are listed in Eqs. (2)–(5). DC
Bt,n, (14)
n∈N
min F = CT RD + CT DC + CT RC +CS (1)


RC
Bt,n,i,k,o ≤ 1, ∀t ∈ T , i ∈ I, k ∈ K, o ∈ O (15)
RD RD RD
CT RD = Vt,n,i, j,o li, j cn,o (2) n∈N
t∈T n∈N i∈I j∈J o∈O
 sRD
n,i, j
is the binary parameter indicating that the product can be
DC DC DC
CT DC = Vt,n, j,k,o l j,k cn,o (3) transported from refinery i to SD j by mode n. This route can be
t∈T n∈N j∈J k∈K o∈O selected only if there are transport conditions between the refinery
 and SD, see Eq. (16). Meanwhile, the other two transport routes are
RC RC RC
CT RC = Vt,n,i,k,o li,k cn,o (4)
subject to the same restrictions, as stated by Eqs. (17) and (18).
t∈T n∈N i∈I k∈K o∈O
 
j,o ≤ sn,i, j , ∀t ∈ T , n ∈ N, i ∈ I, j ∈ J, o ∈ O
RD RD
Bt,n,i, (16)
 lack
Vt,k,o
CS = δ C,demand
(5)
t∈T k∈K o∈O Vk,o
j,k,o ≤ sn, j,k , ∀t ∈ T , n ∈ N, j ∈ J, k ∈ K, o ∈ O
DC DC
Bt,n, (17)
3.2.2. Capacity constraints
Refineries, SDs, and RMs have their own storage facilities.
n,i,k , ∀t ∈ T , n ∈ N, i ∈ I, k ∈ K, o ∈ O
RC
Bt,n,i,k,o ≤ sRC (18)
Eq. (6) ensures that the inventory of facilities at each refinery
should be maintained under specified limits. The inventory levels
of the storage facilities at SDs and RMs also have to be limited in
the specified range, as stated by Eqs. (7) and (8). 3.2.4. Material balance constraints
Eq. (19) ensures the material balance of refineries. vR, 0
repre-
vR,
i,o
min R,depot
≤ Vt,i,o ≤ vR,
i,o
max
, ∀t ∈ T , i ∈ I, o ∈ O (6) i,o
sents the inventory of product o at refinery i at the initial time.
R,depot
At time node t1 (t=1), Vt,i,o is equal to vR,
i,o
0
. When time node is
vD,
j,o
min
≤ Vt,D,depot
j,o
≤ vD,
j,o
max
, ∀t ∈ T , j ∈ J, o ∈ O (7) greater than t1 (t>1), the inventory for product o at refinery i at
time node t equals the inventory at previous node t-1, then plus
C,depot
vC,k,omin ≤ Vt,k,o ≤ vC, max
, ∀t ∈ T , k ∈ K, o ∈ O (8) the production and minus the volume transported to SDs and RMs
k,o
during time interval t-1.
R
Vt,i,o
represents the volume of product o produced by refinery 
i during time interval t. The production for refined products at all
R,depot
Vt,i,o = vR, 0
| + Vt−1
i,o t=1
R,depot
,i,o
− RD
Vt−1 ,n,i, j,o
refineries should not exceed their upper limits, see Eq. (9). n∈N j∈J

∀t ∈ T , i ∈ I, o ∈ O ,i,o , ∀t ∈ T , i ∈ I, o ∈ O
R R,pro max RC R
Vt,i,o ≤v i,o
, (9) − Vt−1 ,n,i,k,o + Vt−1 (19)
n∈N k∈K
Refineries can deliver different products to SDs and RMs by
pipeline, rail and truck. The volume of product o transported from The material balance for SDs can be guaranteed through
refinery i to SD j and RM k should be within the capacity of mode Eq. (20). vD,
j,o
0
represents the inventory of product o at SD j at the
n, as imposed by Eq. (10). SDs can also transfer products to RMs D,depot
initial time. At time node t1 (t=1), Vt, j,o is equal to vD,
j,o
0
. When
through the above three modes, and the transport volume is lim-
ited by Eq. (11). time node is greater than t1 (t>1), the inventory for the product o
  at SD j at time node t equals the inventory at node t-1, then plus
vR,tra
n,i
min
≤ RD
Vt,n,i, j,o +
RC
Vt,n,i,k,o the volume transferred from refineries and minus the volume re-
j∈J o∈O k∈K o∈O ceived by RMs.
≤ vR,tra max
, ∀t ∈ T , n ∈ N, i ∈ I (10) 
n,i Vt,D,depot
j,o
= vD, 0
| + Vt−1
j,o t=1
D,depot
, j,o
+ RD
Vt−1 ,n,i, j,o
 n∈N i∈I
Vn,D,tra min
≤ DC D,tra max
, ∀t ∈ T , n ∈ N, j ∈ J 
Vt,n, j,k,o ≤ Vn, j (11)
− DC D,demand
, ∀t ∈ T , j ∈ J, o ∈ O (20)
,n, j,k,o − v j,o
j Vt−1
k∈K o∈O
n∈N k∈K
To ensure the demand of RMs under the abnormal operation
of supply chain, it is necessary to adopt the inventory strategy to Eq. (21) guarantee the material balance for RMs. vC, 0
k,o
represents
improve the inventory level of SDs, as stated by Eq. (12). In this the inventory of product o at RM k at the initial time. At time node
equation, μ represents the improvement coefficient when the in- C,depot
t1 (t=1), Vt,k,o is equal to vC, 0
. When time node is greater than
k,o
ventory strategy is adopted. t1 (t>1), the inventory for the product o at RM k at time node t
μvD,
j,o
min
≤ Vt,D,depot
j,o
, ∀t ∈ T , j ∈ J, o ∈ O (12) equals the inventory at node t-1 and plus the volume transported
from refineries and SDs, then minus the consumption of RM k.

5
W. Ni, Y. Liang, Z. Li et al. Computers and Chemical Engineering 163 (2022) 107831

Fig. 3, the horizontal axis represents the time of the supply chain
suffering from an interruption event. The vertical axis represents
the performance which can be calculated through Eq. (23). Gray
area represents the change caused by the interference of the sup-
ply chain. The size of the gray area and rectangular area is smaller,
the self-adjustment ability of the DOSC is stronger. It means that
the supply chain has higher resilience. If the value of R is closer to
one, the system would have the best resilience. The value of R can
be calculated through Eq. (24). It is expressed by dividing the cost
at the baseline (F0 ) by the cost at day t (Ft ).
F0
Pt = (23)
Ft
Fig. 3. Infrastructure resilience modeling.

R= Pt dt (24)
T

C,depot
Vt,k,o = vC,k,o0 |t=1 + Vt−1
C,depot
,k,o
+ RC
Vt−1 ,n,i,k,o
n∈N i∈I 3.3.2. Satisfaction rate

+ DC
Vt−1 −v C,demand
, ∀t ∈ T , k ∈ K, o ∈ O (21) The main task of the DOSC is to distribute refined products
,n, j,k,o k,o
n∈N j∈J
from upstream refineries to downstream markets. This study also
introduces the satisfaction rate to evaluate the working perfor-
The shortage for the product o at the RM k in the period t mance of this task. It is the value of the actual received volume
equals the demand minus the actual delivery volume from refiner- divided by the demand of all RMs.
ies and SDs, as stated by Eq. (22).

 vC,demand −V lack 
  k,o t,k,o
lack
Vt,k,o =vC,demand − DC
Vt,n, j,k,o −
RC
Vt,n,i,k,o , ∀t ∈ T , k ∈ K, o ∈ O k∈K o∈O t∈T
vC,demand
k,o
k,o
S= (25)
n∈N j∈J n∈N i∈I |K | × |O| × |T |
(22)

3.3. Indices
Two indices are proposed to evaluate the resilience of the sup-
ply chain under different scenarios.
3.3.1. Resilience rate
This study selects the ratio of the total costs paid by the sup-
ply chain before and after the occurrence of extreme weather to
represent the performance Ouyang et al., 2012). As seen in the
4. Case study
To verify the proposed method, a case study is conducted us-
ing data from a regional DOSC in southern China. The studied sys-
tem is shown in Fig. 4. There are 22 RMs in this region. The re-
fined products come from four refineries (R1-R4). Four SDs can re-
ceive products from refineries and distribute them to RMs through
pipeline, rail or truck. There are two pipelines in this area. One

Fig. 4. The studied downstream oil supply chain system.

6
W. Ni, Y. Liang, Z. Li et al. Computers and Chemical Engineering 163 (2022) 107831

Fig. 5. Daily demand of RMs.

Fig. 6. Annual production of refineries.

Fig. 7. Maximum transportation capacity.

starts from R1, connects SD1, RM1, RM2, RM3, RM4, RM5 and RM6.
The other starts from R2 and passed through SD2, RM7, RM8, RM9,
and SD3.
Fig. 5 shows the daily demand of each RM. The annual produc-
tion of each refinery is shown in Fig. 6. Fig. 7 represents the max-
imum transportation capacity of each mode at refineries and SDs.
It is assumed that the inventory of all RMs has not been con-
sumed in baseline. The demand of RMs can be fully satisfied by
refineries. A distribution scheme under the scenario baseline can
be obtained through solving the model. Fig. 8 shows the detailed
scheme in the 10-day horizon. Different colors represent different
transportation modes, and the thickness of the line represents the

7
W. Ni, Y. Liang, Z. Li et al.
Fig. 8. The distribution plan under baseline.
transferred volume of refined products. For example, the red line in
the first figure means that R1 transports diesel to SD1 by pipeline,
and the blue line means that SD1 transports the same product to
RM2 and RM3 through railway.
In this study, the objective function of the model consists of
transportation cost and satisfaction cost. The two terms of costs are
interacted with each other. If the unit satisfaction cost is small, the
penalty for not meeting the market demand would be small. The
solution tends to be out of stock to minimize the objective func-
tion. Therefore, it is necessary to determine an appropriate unit
satisfaction cost so that the satisfaction cost can be as small as
possible while satisfying the demand. To eliminate the impact of
the satisfaction cost to the distribution plan, this study sets differ-
ent values for unit satisfaction cost to find an appropriate value.
8
Computers and Chemical Engineering 163 (2022) 107831
Taking the satisfaction rate as the standard, unit satisfaction cost
ranging from 10 to 1010 is calculated to find the appropriate value.
The baseline is used to test this unit cost.
Fig. 9 shows the relationship among unit satisfaction cost, to-
tal cost, and satisfaction rate. When the unit satisfaction cost is
10 CNY, the satisfaction cost occupies the dominant position in
the whole system. In this case, the transportation cost is much
higher than the satisfaction cost. Therefore, the solution tends to
not transport products to downstream market, so that the total
cost of the whole system can reach the minimum. With the in-
crease of unit satisfaction cost, the effect of satisfaction cost on
total cost decreases. When the unit satisfaction cost is greater than
107 CNY, the total cost does not change. The requirement of choos-
ing the appropriate unit satisfaction cost is to reduce satisfaction
W. Ni, Y. Liang, Z. Li et al.
Fig. 9. Relationship among unit satisfaction cost, total cost, and satisfaction rate.
Table 1
Assumptions for different scenarios.
Scenario Assumptions
DR All refineries are partially disrupted on the second day, and
their production capacity is 50% of the original capacity
under this scenario. On the seventh day, the refinery is
repaired and restored to a normal state. The initial inventory
of each storage facility is at the minimum level.
SP All pipelines are shut down on the second day and repaired
on the seventh day. The initial inventory of each storage
facility is at the minimum level.
IDR The demand for RMs increases to 150% of the average on the
second day and returns to normal on the seventh day. The
initial inventory of storage facilities is set as the minimum
level.
CA All the above scenarios can occur with a certain probability,
different failure rates and recovery rates are set for refineries
and pipelines. The demand of RMs ranges from 50% to 150%
of their average demand. The initial inventory of each storage
facility fluctuates between 30% and 70% of the total capacity.
cost as much as possible while satisfying the demand. Therefore, it
is reasonable to set the satisfaction cost of the follow-up study as
107 CNY.
5. Results and discussion
The assumptions of each abnormal scenario are shown in
Table 1. Under scenarios DR, SP and IDR, the events occur on the
second day, and the supply chain recovers on the seventh day. The
scenario CA assumes that all the above three scenarios are likely
to occur simultaneously. The failure probability of the supply chain
under EWEs is provided according to the number of disruptions in
the DOSC during the past decade.
5.1. Scenario of DR
An important index to evaluate the resilience of the DOSC is the
satisfaction of RMs when all refineries are disrupted. Fig. 10 shows
the total costs and satisfaction rates under the scenarios of produc-
tion decline. This study assumes that the production capacity of all
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Computers and Chemical Engineering 163 (2022) 107831
refineries decreases from 100 to 0%. It can be found that the de-
mand of each RM could be met at the beginning. The satisfaction
rate gradually decreases as the production declines. The demand of
all RMs cannot be satisfied when the refineries are completely dis-
rupted. The lack of products makes RMs unable to meet the down-
stream requirement, thus increasing the total cost.
From above, due to the low level of the inventory at SDs, it
will have a great influence on the safe operation of the DOSC
once it suffers from the disruption of refineries. To increase the
resilience of the supply chain, the method of strategic storage for
oil is adopted. In this scenario, it is assumed that all RMs keep the
minimum inventory at the initial moment. On the second day, all
refineries are partially disrupted due to EWEs, and the productions
are reduced to half. On the seventh day, the production capacity of
refineries is restored. The interruption period of 5 days is chosen
in this study, because it is a long interruption period for a DOSC
(Lv et al., 2018). Once the interruption period exceeds 5 days, it
will have a great impact on the market. Moreover, the interruption
period of 5 days can fully reflect the change of resilience rate. The
coefficient μ represents the strategic inventory level of the SD. If μ
is equal to 1, it indicates that the inventory strategy is not adopted.
As shown in Fig. 11, the vertical axis represents the perfor-
mance of the supply chain. When refineries are partially disrupted
on the second day, the actual production of the refineries is not
enough to meet the demand of all RMs. Therefore, there will be a
shortage at RMs, resulting in penalty costs, which will increase the
total cost. The total cost in this case will be greater than the cost
that the demand of RMs is fully met, so the performance begins
to decline. On the seventh day, some additional products need to
be delivered to SDs for storage. This is because SDs need to trans-
port the stored products to RMs to meet their demand when the
production of refineries reduces. Therefore, the total cost is higher
than the normal cost. The whole supply chain will be back to nor-
mal after the seventh day.
The resilience rate will be affected if the inventory level of the
SD is different. In view of this situation, this study assumes the pa-
rameter μ to represent the storage levels of SDs. When μ is equal
to 1, it means the inventory strategy is not adopted, which is called
the base scenario. If the value of μ is greater than 1, it represents
the strategy is used. In this case, its value represents the multi-
W. Ni, Y. Liang, Z. Li et al.
Fig. 10. Total cost and satisfaction rate under production decline.
Fig. 11. Performance of the supply chain when refineries are partially disrupted.
ple of the inventory compared to the base scenario. When μ is
equal to 2, it doubles the inventory compared with the base sce-
nario, which represents the scenario with low inventory of SDs. If
μ equals 5 and 10, they represent the scenarios with medium in-
ventory and high inventory of SDs, respectively.
The lowest point gradually rises with the increase of μ, indi-
cating that the impact of the disruption on supply chain is re-
duced. For example, the DOSC can still maintain normal operation
on the third day when μ is equal to 5. When μ is set as 10, it
can be found that the performance of the supply chain decreases
the least. By increasing the storage of SDs, it can make up for the
demand of RMs that cannot be met due to the decrease of pro-
duction in a short time. However, the restoration rate decreases
with the increase of μ. This is because μ represents the inven-
tory level of SDs, and the storage volume of inventory required by
SDs will increase when μ increases. When refineries are partially
disrupted, SDs need to consume their own inventory to meet the
demand of RMs. When refineries resume production, in addition
to transporting products according to the previous demand plan of
RMs, they also need to transport additional products to fill the con-
sumption of SDs due to the previous supply disruption. The larger
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Computers and Chemical Engineering 163 (2022) 107831
the value of μ is, the more oil needs to be transported. Therefore,
the restoration rate is the lowest when μ is equal to 10. The in-
ventory strategy can improve the resilience of the supply chain,
but the storage volume required by the transfer depot increases,
resulting in the increase in transport costs, as shown in Fig. 12.
As can be seen from Figs. 13 and 14, they indicate that the
strategy has little impact on the resilience when the influence of
EWEs increases. All refineries are completely disrupted from the
second day under this situation. Although the inventory of SDs is
improved by increasing the value of μ, the demand of RMs still
cannot be satisfied in the follow-up period under the complete dis-
ruption of refineries. The performance of the supply chain is not
improved, so the resilience is not significantly increased.
5.2. Scenario of SP
In this scenario, all pipelines are shut down on the second day
and repaired on the seventh day. Fig. 15 shows the restoration of
the supply chain after a 5-day interruption. The result shows that
the performance begins to decline when the interruption occurs.
At this time, affected by the shutdown of pipelines, the demand of
W. Ni, Y. Liang, Z. Li et al. Computers and Chemical Engineering 163 (2022) 107831

Fig. 12. Transport cost and resilience rate of the supply chain when refineries are partially disrupted.

Fig. 13. Performance of the supply chain when refineries are completely disrupted.

Fig. 14. Transport cost and resilience rate of the supply chain when refineries are completely disrupted.

11
W. Ni, Y. Liang, Z. Li et al.
Fig. 15. Performance of the supply chain when pipelines are completely disrupted.
Fig. 16. Transport cost and resilience rate of the supply chain when pipelines are completely disrupted.
each RM needs to be met by other transportation modes, resulting
in the increase of transport cost. When the inventory strategy is
adopted, the impact of the interruption is significantly reduced. It
can be found that the decline trend of resilience rate tends to be
stable as the increase of μ. Unlike refinery disruption, products can
be replenished by other modes if pipelines cannot be used.
When the pipelines are restored, the use of inventory strategy
does not change the transport cost, as Fig. 16 shows. It is because
the pipeline failure only reduces one mode, and it will not in-
crease the inventory consumption. As a result, when pipelines are
repaired, there is no need to replenish the terminal with additional
products through other modes and no increase in transportation
costs.
Figs. 17 and 18 show the volume of products received by each
RM when pipelines are in normal and shutdown. O1 and O2 rep-
resent diesel and gasoline, respectively. As can be seen in these
two figures, the demand of some RMs cannot be satisfied when
pipelines are completely interrupted. The transport capacity of rail
and truck cannot fully supplement that of pipelines. For example,
the demand of RM6 can be satisfied through pipelines before the
interruption. But when pipelines are interrupted, the existing con-
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Computers and Chemical Engineering 163 (2022) 107831
ditions cannot meet the demand of RM6 for O2. Thus, it is im-
portant to ensure the safe operation of pipelines to enhance the
resilience of this DOSC.
5.3. Scenario of IDR
Cities may increase their demand for refined products when
EWEs occur. Fig. 19 shows total costs and satisfaction rates of the
supply chain under different demand scenarios. It can be seen that
the total cost will rise as the demand rises. When the growth
rate ranges from 0 and 30%, the demand of RMs can be satisfied
through the distribution of refineries and SDs, the satisfaction rate
remains unchanged in this range. As the demand continues to rise,
refineries do not have enough capacity to meet the demand of
RMs, thus the satisfaction rate begins to decline. It is necessary to
increase the output of refineries or the inventory of SDs to improve
the satisfaction rate.
The scenario of the demand increase within 5 days is simulated.
As shown in Fig. 20, The performance of the supply chain declines
from the next day, indicating that the transport cost begins to in-
crease because of the sudden growth in the demand. The inven-
W. Ni, Y. Liang, Z. Li et al. Computers and Chemical Engineering 163 (2022) 107831

Fig. 17. The volume of products received by RMs when pipelines are operating.

Fig. 18. The volume of products received by each RM when all pipelines are shut down.

Fig. 19. Total cost and satisfaction rate of the supply chain when the demand of RMs increases.

tory strategy can still improve the performance effectively under of a DOSC, all scenarios have a certain probability of occurrence.
this scenario, but with the increase of μ, there is no significant To study the resilience of the DOSC in an overall perspective, the
difference in the recovery level. following scenarios are set up:

(1) Initial inventory

5.4. Scenario of CA
The inventory of oil tank should be within 30 to 80% of the to-
The above scenarios are analyses of the failure or disruption of tal capacity considering the safe operation of the storage system.
a single component of the DOSC. However, in the actual operation It is assumed that the initial inventory of each storage facility con-

13
W. Ni, Y. Liang, Z. Li et al.
Fig. 20. Performance of the supply chain when the demand of RMs increases.
forms to normal distribution. The mean value is set as the 50% of
the total capacity, and the initial inventory of each storage facility
fluctuates between 30 and 70% of its total capacity.
(2) Demand of RMs
It is assumed that the production of refineries and demand of
RMs follow normal distribution. The average daily output of re-
fineries and demand of RMs are selected as the mean values. The
demand of RMs in this scenario fluctuates between 50 and 150% of
the demand in the baseline.
(3) Disruption of refineries
For a DOSC, each equipment in the system is relatively stable in
the operation, and the corresponding failure rate can be estimated
by historical maintenance records under EWEs. This study assumes
that there are two scenarios in which refineries is disrupted due to
EWEs. The first scenario is that the refineries are completely shut
down. The second scenario is just some equipment fails, which will
lead to the decrease of production. According to the maintenance
of each refinery in the past decade, it is assumed that the proba-
bility of complete disruption is 0.001/ day, and the recovery prob-
ability is 0.25/ day. The probability of partial disruption is 0.072/
day, and the production of the refinery will drop to 50% with the
recovery rate of 1/ day.
(4) Shutdown of pipelines
The whole pipeline will shut down when EWEs occur. Accord-
ing to the statistics of the natural force caused by pipeline failure,
which is compiled by China Petroleum Pipeline Integrity System,
the probability of pipeline shutdown is set at 0.00274/ day, and
the probability of normal operation is set at 0.33/ day.
Based on above data, the Monte Carlo method is used to simu-
late the operation of the studied DOSC for 30 days. The number of
the simulation is set as 105 times.
As shown in Fig. 21, the frequency that resilience rate is greater
than 0.9 for more than 93,0 0 0 times. This result indicates that the
supply chain has high resilience in the face of various interruption
events within 30 days. The lowest resilience rate of the whole sup-
ply chain is between 0.5 and 0.6, which indicates that the supply
chain can optimize the distribution network by adjusting the trans-
portation modes to meet the demand of RMs under EWEs. How-
ever, the supply capacity is greatly reduced. To prevent this situ-
ation, backup plans should be prepared in advance to repair the
supply chain as soon as possible, so as to improve the resilience of
the supply chain. Compared to the case where μ is equal to 1, the
14
Computers and Chemical Engineering 163 (2022) 107831
frequency that resilience rate is less than 0.95 decreases when μ
is equal to 2, 5 and 10, while the number of times the resilience
rate is greater than 0.95 increases.
Fig. 22 shows the change rate of resilience rate when μ is equal
to 2, 5 and 10 compared with the scenario when μ is equal to 1. It
can be found that the frequency of other resilience rate increases
except for data point at series [0.95,0.96) when μ is equal to 2.
This indicates that the frequency of data point at series [0.95,0.96]
in this case is not as much as the scenario when μ is equal to
1. When μ is equal to 10, the increase frequency of data point at
series [0.99,1] is the highest, reaching 32.84%. The right axis repre-
sents the growth rate of the resilience under the inventory strategy
when the resilience is greater than 0.95. The right vertical axis rep-
resents the growth rate with the resilience rate greater than 0.95.
With the increase of μ, the increase frequency of resilience be-
comes more obvious. When μ is equal to 10, the proportion of the
resilience rate greater than 0.95 increases by 14.83%. It can be con-
cluded that the inventory strategy has certain help to improve the
resilience of the DOSC. However, its high resilience may result in
more transport cost, so the use of the inventory strategy should be
adopted according to the actual operation of the supply chain.
Since the values of failure and recovery probability will have a
certain influence on the simulation, this study simulates the oper-
ation of the DOSC under the scenarios with different failure and
recovery probability. The specific scenarios are shown in Table 2.
Each scenario is simulated 105 times, and each simulation lasts 30
days. The distribution of resilience rates in different scenarios is
shown in Fig. 23.
As can be seen from Fig. 23, when the failure probability of re-
finery increases, the resilience of the supply chain decreases sig-
nificantly, which is embodied in fewer times of resilience rate dis-
tributed in the range [0.9,1]. When the failure probability of re-
fineries decreases, the number of times resilience rate is less than
0.9 also decreases. Different from the satisfaction rate, when the
failure probability of pipelines changes, it has a greater impact on
the resilience of the supply chain. Because when the pipeline fails,
although the demand of RMs can be replenished by other trans-
portation modes, the overall cost increases greatly, obviously af-
fecting the transport cost. The recovery probability has the greatest
influence on the resilience of the supply chain. When the recovery
probability is twice as high, the supply chain can return to nor-
mal operation more quickly. However, when the recovery rate is
reduced by half, the abnormal state will be prolonged and trans-
port cost is higher. Therefore, the failure rate and recovery rate
have an important impact on the resilience of the supply chain.
W. Ni, Y. Liang, Z. Li et al. Computers and Chemical Engineering 163 (2022) 107831

Fig. 21. Distribution of resilience rate.

Fig. 22. Change rate of resilience rate.

Table 2
Scenarios of different probability rates.

Scenarios Description

Reference scenario The interruption probability and repair probability are described above.
High disruption rate of Complete disruption rate and partial disruption rate of refineries are 2×0.001/ day and 2×0.072/ day,
refineries respectively, and the rest is the same as the reference scenario.
Low disruption rate of Complete disruption rate and partial disruption rate of refineries are 0.5×0.001/ day and 0.5×0.072/ day,
refineries respectively, and the rest is the same as the reference scenario.
High interruption rate of Complete interruption rate of pipelines is 2×0.00274/ day, and the rest is the same as the reference scenario.
pipelines
Low interruption rate of Complete interruption rate of pipelines is 0.5×0.00274/ day, and the rest is the same as the reference scenario.
pipelines
High repair rate The repair rate of recovery from the full disruption of refineries, partial disruption of refineries, and shutdown
of pipelines are 2×0.33/day, 1/day, and 2×0.25/day, respectively, and the rest is the same as the reference
scenario.
Low repair rate The repair rate of recovery from the full disruption of refineries, partial disruption of refineries, and shutdown
of pipelines are 0.5×0.33/day, 0.5×1/day, and 0.5×0.25/day, respectively, and the rest is the same as the
reference scenario.

15
W. Ni, Y. Liang, Z. Li et al.
Fig. 23. Distribution of resilience rate in the scenarios with different failure and recovery probability.
Timely repair of failures or interruptions in all links of the supply
chain can improve its resilience.
(2) Under the scenario CA, compared with the supply chain
6. Conclusion
This study develops a methodology to evaluate the resilience of
the DOSC with the consideration of supply disruption and demand
uncertainty of downstream market in extreme weather events.
Then, two indices of resilience rate and satisfaction rate are pro-
posed to make a quantitative resilience assessment for the DOSC.
Through substituting data from a real DOSC in southern China into
the proposed method for in-depth analysis, we can draw conclu-
(3) Sensitivity analysis of failure and repair rate show that
sions from three main aspects:
(1) In the baseline, the existing capacity of the transportation
modes and daily production of the refineries are sufficient
to meet the daily demand of RMs. It means that the produc-
tion and demand are balanced. In scenarios DR, IP and IDR,
the use of inventory strategy can satisfy the demand of RMs
in a short time and effectively improve the resilience of the
supply chain even in the case of unexpected interruptions.
When the coefficient μ is equal to 10, the resilience rate of
16
Computers and Chemical Engineering 163 (2022) 107831
the supply chain in each scenario is 0.86, 0.89 and 0.83, re-
spectively.
without use of the inventory strategy, the resilience of the
supply chain adopting the strategy is significantly improved
by more than 0.9. It indicates that the inventory strategy
has a great impact on improving the resilience of the sup-
ply chain. When the coefficient μ is equal to 10, the propor-
tion that the resilience rate is greater than 0.95 increases by
14.83%. However, this strategy may result in higher transport
cost, whether to use this strategy should be decided accord-
ing to the actual operation of the supply chain.
maintaining the productions of refineries and operation of
pipelines is critical to the improvement of system resilience.
In addition, after a disruption, shortening maintenance time
is even more important because it greatly reduces the occur-
rence of demand imbalance and system losses, and improves
system resilience. Conversely, if the failure is not repaired
promptly, it will result in the shortage of SDs. Although the
repair rate is only half the normal level, the probability of
the shortage increases by an order of magnitude, signifi-
W. Ni, Y. Liang, Z. Li et al.
cantly affecting the system resilience. In this case, when the
repair rate is increased by two times, compared with the
scenario baseline, the number of times the resilience rate is
greater than 0.9 increases by 5.95%. But when the resilience
rate is reduced by half, the number of times decreases by
16.04%.
For the future works, the authors intend to introduce more
strategies into the method so as to compare the improvement ef-
fect of different strategies on the resilience of the supply chain.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing finan-
cial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to
influence the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgments
This work was partially supported by the National Natural Sci-
ence Foundation of China (51874325) and Science Foundation of
China University of Petroleum, Beijing (2462021BJRC009). The au-
thors are grateful to all study participants.
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