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Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks 26 (2021) 100429

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Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks


journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/segan

Influences of vehicle to grid (V2G) on power grid: An analysis by


considering associated stochastic parameters explicitly

Bijan Bibak a , , Hatice Tekiner-Mogulkoc b
a
Industrial and Systems Engineering, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Istanbul Sehir University, Istanbul, Turkey
b
Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Marmara University, Istanbul, Turkey

article info a b s t r a c t

Article history: Integration of the electric vehicles (EVs) and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology with renewable energy
Received 30 July 2020 sources (RESs) is the hottest topics among researchers. Many studies have been done in this field,
Received in revised form 30 November 2020 but in most of them, discussion of aspects of electrified transportation have been limited. The V2G
Accepted 29 December 2020
system due to its structure and supporting role for the grid influences the power demand and supply
Available online 6 January 2021
curve simultaneously depending on the patterns of driving, preferences for charging/discharging times,
Keywords: location, and the infrastructure of the system. Due to complexity of this system, it is necessary to cover
Electric vehicle (EV) all the influential elements in one package and analyze the impact of the system on them in a unique
Vehicle to grid (V2G) process. In this paper, we apply a precise and efficient methodology to analyze the impacts of the EVs
Monte Carlo simulation and V2G on reliability, cost, and emissions with respect to the power grid. The strength of this paper is
Reliability the applicability of the suggested methodology to the power grids with different patterns and features
Emission with respect to shares of RESs generated power by explicitly considering the stochastic parameters
Cost
shaping the daily demand/supply curves. We introduce two novel indexes for measuring the reliability
Power Grid
of the power grid based on availability of the RESs under power supply systems: stochastic and
constant power supply. To cover all the possibilities, based on different penetration levels of EVs and
V2G, charging modes, locations and schedules several cases are defined and for each case, the Monte
Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the impacts of the considered cases regarding the reliability,
emission, and cost of the power grid. In the numerical analysis under assumed cases, results show
integration of the EVs and V2G system in stochastic power supply (high RESs) improves the power
grid’s efficiency in terms of decreasing the total cost and emission rate. The intermittent nature of
RESs can increase fluctuation in the power grid and consequently negatively affect the reliability of
the system but our analysis indicates that integration of these sources with V2G system can improve
the reliability of the power grid.
© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction the International Energy Agency report [3], the sources of most
CO2 emission are industry sectors and transportation fleets as
The world has been faced with a big challenge in terms of shown in Fig. 1. The de-carbonization of transportation fleets is
providing power and ensuring global energy requirements. This one of the main topics in the energy field in the most devel-
challenge is mainly due to the limited source of fossil fuels like oped countries [4–7]. As a solution, there is a huge tendency
oil, natural gas and coal. The rapid growth of technology and to integrate the RESs with the EVs and the V2G in the smart
industry and the subsequent increase in the power demand has grid to minimize reliance on petroleum products, satisfy the
increased the reliance on fossil fuels, and in recent decades the power demand and consequently decrease concerns about global
energy costs have experienced a fast-growing trend [1]. Fossil fuel warming.
sources are limited, and they will be depleted soon. In addition, Implementation of the electrified transportation fleet has many
environmental issues like the increasing average temperature of positive consequences for the environment and the economy,
the earth, GHGs emissions and the depletion of non-renewable however the large adoptions of EVs might fluctuate the current
sources are the top headlines in the news [2]. Every day, million power system (especially during the peak demand period) and
tons of carbon dioxide are emitted into the atmosphere. Based on lead to many problems and limitations for the grid [8]. On average
automobiles travel for only 5% of the day, and about 90% of
∗ Corresponding author. the time, they are unused and parked in lots [9]. This huge
E-mail address: bijanbibak1990@gmail.com (B. Bibak). number of unused cars can potentially help support the grid.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.segan.2020.100429
2352-4677/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
B. Bibak and H. Tekiner-Mogulkoc Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks 26 (2021) 100429

Integration of V2G technology with RESs is an efficient ap-


Nomenclature proach to deal with possible problems related to high penetration
EVs Electric Vehicles of EVs and consequently fluctuation in the power supply. The V2G
Df zhj Difference between supply and demand in hth system that usually refers to ‘‘mobile energy’’, ‘‘smart energy’’ or
hour for zth case at jth iteration ‘‘virtual power plant’’ is a new term that plays an influential role
in demand adjustment [10,11]. The V2G technology is a flow of
V2G Vehicle to Grid
energy, information, and money between the EVs, aggregators,
Pzj Power generation emission for zth case at jth
and the power grid to balance the demand and supply [12]. A
iteration
simple structure of the V2G system is shown in the Fig. 2. The
RESs Renewable Energy Sources EVs and V2G technology are considered as a key aspect of the
DE zxj Power demand of xth source for zth case at jth sociotechnical transition to decarbonize transportation [13].
iteration The integration of the V2G system with the RESs has positive
IC Internal Combustion outcomes for the power grid especially in decreasing the total
EM zxj Emission per MWh of xth source for zth case at emission, mainly because of two functions. First, it decreases the
jth iteration volume of petroleum products that burn in the traditional power
SOC State of Charge plants for generating electricity and second, it shifts the use of IC
Izj Emission by IC cars for zth case at jth iteration cars to EVs and decreases the volume of gasoline that is burned
h Hour of a day (1 to 24) by the IC cars.
DDzj Driven distance by IC cars for zth case at jth There is a wide range of studies about influences of EVs and
iteration implementing the V2G on the distribution network. Some stud-
ies applied the simulation modules, specifically the Monte Carlo
i Rank level 1 to 12
Simulation [15], and some others developed new optimization
EP zj Emission per kilometer by IC cars for zth case
models to analyze the capacity of the current power network for
at jth iteration
implementing the future electrified transportation fleet [16,17].
j Iteration number
Many authors have focused on scenarios that considered the
Ezj Total emission for zth case at jth iteration effects of EVs and V2G on the demand profile and a few of them
z Case number analyzed the economic and emission impacts of electric vehicles
AE z Assigned emission for zth case on society. In total, this field of research is classified into three
RF zj Reliability factor for zth case at jth iteration main variables: influence of EVs and V2G on reliability, emissions,
RM zhj Reserve margin in hth hour for zth case at jth and total costs of the power grid.
iteration One of the most important mission of developing the V2G
RF z Reliability factor for zth case system is shaving peak demand and increasing the reliability of
TDzhj Total demand in hth hour for zth case at jth the power grid [18,19]. Analyzing the effects of the V2G on
iteration the power demand profile is an efficient way for evaluating the
Hzij ith highest ranked demand for zth case at jth effectiveness of the V2G [20]. Drude et al. [21] analyzed the in-
iteration fluences of the V2G in urban areas on the energy demand profile
by applying a MATLAB simulation under different charge and
CE zj Cost for generating power for zth case at jth
discharge modes. Khemakhem et al. [22] considered a supervision
iteration
strategy based on regulated charging of PEVs to provide a flatter
Lzij ith lowest ranked demand for zth case at jth
power demand curve. Morais et al. [23] proposed an efficient
iteration
management methodology for EVs charging and discharging to
CM zxj Cost per MWh of xth source for zth case at jth analyze the influence of EVs in two aspects: system operation
iteration costs and minimizing the difference between the minimum and
DRF zj Developed reliability factor for zth case at jth maximum system demand (leveling the demand curve).
iteration The feasibility and economic aspects of new technologies like
CT zj Cost by IC cars for zth case at jth iteration the V2G play crucial role in the success and acceptance of imple-
DRF z Developed reliability factor for zth case menting an effective system. Li et al. [24] evaluated the feasibility
CP zj Cost of gasoline per kilometer for zth case at jth of the V2G peak shaving and valley filling (flattening the demand
iteration profile) in China and discussed efficient factors for profitable V2G
Szhj Power supply in hth hour for zth case at jth service. Lopez et al. [25] proposed an optimization model for
iteration power load shifting in the smart grids by implementing electric
TC zj Total cost for zth case at jth iteration vehicle aggregators with V2G capabilities. Mehrjerdi et al. [19]
Dzhj Power demand in hth hour for zth case at jth presented a nonlinear stochastic programming to optimize the
iteration electric vehicles’ operation and damp out the intermittency of
ACz Assigned cost for zth case RESs and energy cost reduction. In addition, this strategy min-
imizes the charging/discharging cycles of the vehicles’ batteries
Dizij Difference between ith highest ranked demand
for avoiding the battery degradation.
value and ith lowest ranked demand value for
Another benefit of the EVs and V2G system is it reduces the
zth case at jth iteration
negative effects of CO2 emission by the traditional transportation
on the environment. Concerns about environmental issues have
discussed in most of the recently published papers. For instance,
Tarroja et al. [26] analyzed the effects of energy storage systems
Thus, the concept of vehicle to grid (V2G) has been introduced
(as stationary energy storage) and V2G on RESs penetration,
for solving the current obstacles and problems in the power grid greenhouse gas emissions, and balancing power plant operation.
Hoehne et al. [27] analyzed the influences of charging and dis-
by regulating the demand and supply simultaneously. charging schedules on CO2 emissions. Based on this study, in
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B. Bibak and H. Tekiner-Mogulkoc Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks 26 (2021) 100429

Fig. 1. Refined petroleum and other liquids consumption by end-use sector [14].1

many scenarios, optimized EV charging could decrease the level


of CO2 emissions.
Stochastic and uncertain nature of the EVs, such as depar-
ture/arrival times to charging centers, daily driven distances,
battery sizes charger/discharger types, etc., are influential pa-
rameters that affects reliability of the power grid. In addition,
stochastic nature of RESs (especially solar and wind power) is
additional parameter that influences the network. Hernandez
et al. [28], the authors presented an innovative GAT (general
analytical technique) for assessing the stochastic behaviors of
EVs and PV power (photovoltaic) and their influences on overall
system. Ruiz-Rodríguez et al. [29] proposed an analytical tech-
nique for evaluating the impacts of feeding biomass-fueled gas
engines (BFGEs) as a renewable energy source and EVs on the
radial distribution systems (RDSs). In [30], Ruiz-Rodríguez et al.
accurately assess the combined technical influence of the EVs and Fig. 2. A simple structure of the V2G system [34].
PV uncertainties on RDSs by applying a proposed probabilistic
method (PPM). Hemmati et al. [31] focused on the modeling
and operation of battery energy storage system (BESS) under In this paper, we propose an applicable methodology to ran-
unbalanced-uncertain conditions in the power grids. The aim of domly create many different load and supply curves and evaluate
the proposed model is to optimize energy cost, deal with load the performance measures. Another important contribution of
uncertainties, and settle the unbalanced loading at the same time. this paper is that we introduce two novel indexes for measuring
Mehrjerdi et al. [32], designed the optimal charging facility and the reliability of the system under two types of power grids,
capacity for charging stations under different charging speeds. the grid with low rate of RESs (constant power supply), and the
In addition, integration of charging stations with wind energy is grid with high rate of RESs (stochastic power supply). In this
analyzed by using stochastic programming. Mehrjerdi et al. [33] paper, we explicitly consider all these aspects together and offer
applied an optimization programming for minimizing the annu- a comprehensive analysis around the influences of the EVs, V2G
alized cost of losses and the annualized investment cost of energy system, and their integration with RESs specifically wind power
storage system (ESSs). Moreover, a stochastic programming is on the power grid by considering the reliability, environmental
used to model the network equipped with distributed energy and economic aspects of this field. We define different cases and
resource (DER) and its uncertainty. provide the results of the system performance measures for them
Even though there are huge volumes of published papers that by using a Monte Carlo simulation. The suggested methodology,
consider different aspects of integration of V2G and RESs such simulation and introduced indexes are applicable in different
as reliability, emission and cost, they rarely analyzed these three regions based on the power grid features that serve as great tools
variables in a single study. Another part missing in the literature for policymakers.
is role of supply power and power sources on the efficiency of the This paper is organized as follows: the suggested methodol-
V2G system. The pattern of supply profile is extremely influenced ogy, simulation procedure, and two innovative indexes for mea-
by the type of power sources. Since, the power grids based on suring the reliability of the power grid are discussed in Section 2.
traditional power plants (e.g. fossil fuels) usually, provide a uni- The numerical analysis, its relevant features, and potential are
form rate of supply power during the day, we call them constant introduced and reviewed in Section 3. In Section 4, we analyze
power supply. On other hand, in power grids where the main the power grid in three main fields: reliability, emission, and
source of generated power is based on RESs providing a non- total costs of the considered system based on the outputs of the
uniform pattern of supply power due to intermittent nature of simulation under different cases. Finally, conclusions are drawn
RESs (solar, wind, etc.), we call them stochastic power supply. in Section 5.
Compared to the literature, the strength of our study is analyzing
the influences of the V2G system on reliability, cost, and emission
2. Methodology
of the power grid in all power supply types by introducing novel
and innovative indexes for measuring these parameters.
The proposed methodology in this paper is based on gener-
ating random days for a given structure of the grid, computing
1 OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development). the system performance measures for each random day and
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evaluating the effectiveness of electrified transportation in im- cases are defined to see the effect of V2G participation for the
proving the efficiency of the power grid under the defined case. most likely setup level of EVs on the power grid when charging
Different cases are defined by type of grid, penetration levels happens in all charging centers at any time. The percentage of
of the EVs, portions of vehicles with V2G capabilities, charging participation in the V2G system can range from 0 to 50%. The
policies used for timing, and location of charging and discharging. third set of cases are used to understand how the performance
Computations are carried for each case. measure will change for different levels of V2G if the charging
A Monte Carlo simulation is used to calculate the new demand happens at home and is restricted to off-peak hours. The fourth
of the EVs for each hour and the extra stored electricity in the set of cases are designed to evaluate the impact of charging times
batteries available for transmitting to the grid for each hour by at the public stations on the system for a most likely setup of 10%
considering all the stochastic parameters, such as daily driven EVs penetration. In the cases of the public stations, five policies
distances, departure/arrival times to charging points, chargers are defined as follows.
types used, and battery sizes. Another stochasticity in the net-
work is the electricity generated by the RESs. Since the available • Policy 1. Charging at any time during the day
generated power from such sources will affect the performance • Policy 2. Charging mostly after work between 4 p.m. and 6
of the system, it is also very important to explicitly consider the p.m.
stochastic nature of the RESs. Therefore, the simulation chooses • Policy 3. Charging between 8 a.m. and 8 p.m.
a random power generation by the RESs from available patterns • Policy 4. Charging between 5 p.m. and 7 a.m.
for randomly selected days. • Policy 5. Charging between 1 a.m. and 12 p.m.
Each iteration of the Monte Carlo simulation corresponds with
a randomly chosen day. For each selected day and defined case, 2.2. Monte Carlo Simulation
the penetration level of EVs and proportion of EVs that can join
the V2G system are assigned. For each EV, the amount of electric- The Monte Carlo Simulation used in this paper is the extended
ity needed from the grid is randomly determined by assigning and modified version presented by Ediz [35]. As mentioned be-
a daily driven distance and battery size used from the given fore, the purpose of the simulation is to generate random demand
distributions. Then, a charging location and the infrastructure and supply profiles that represent the random days. For each
properties at the selected location are randomly assigned by using hour of the random days, the simulation generates the total
the corresponding distributions. By considering the policies used electricity demand, extra available electricity in batteries that can
for charging times at the selected location and the distribution be transferred to the grid (by V2G), and generated electricity
of the arrival/departure times to/from this location, start time from the RESs. In this case, the model presented by Ediz [35]
for charging is randomly assigned. At the end of each iteration, is extended to include random selection of electricity generated
the total demand for each hour is calculated by summing the from the RESs and random estimation of available stored electric-
demand of each user. A similar approach is used to create the ity in the batteries. Another modification applied to the model
available electricity stored in the electric batteries for each hour. is determining different policies for the time of charging at the
In this case, the stochastic parameters are selected randomly public stations.
from the given distribution to assign how much electricity can be In this simulation, the stochastics parameters like penetration
discharged from the car for each user. Generated power by RESs level of EVs and V2G system, state of charge (SOC), daily driven
for each hour is also randomly selected from the given generation distances, battery sizes, arrival times, etc. have influential impacts
distributions of renewable sources. A Monte Carlo simulation is on the results. In addition, personal preferences of EVs drivers for
used to create such N random days. charging the batteries is another stochastic parameter that adds
The second step of the methodology is creating the total load to the complexity of this topic. The main parameters used in this
curve and supply curve for each selected day. In this step, the simulation are shown in Table 2.
total demand is calculated for each hour by adding the new de- The Monte Carlo simulation starts with determining the num-
mand of the EVs to the current network demand and subtracting ber of EVs for a given penetration level of EVs and the number of
the extra stored electricity available for that hour (discharging). participants in V2G system for a given proportion of V2G. For each
Thirdly, for each random day, three-performance measurements driver, the daily driven distances and the suitable battery size are
are calculated. Compiling the outputs of simulation gives us an assigned from the given distribution seen in Fig. 3. In this study,
efficient tool to evaluate the performance of EVs and V2G system based on available EVs in the market we consider five battery
and their integration with RES on the reliability, emission, and sizes: 5 kW, 10 kW, 15 kW, 20 kW, 25 kW. Since the EVs are
cost of the power grid. charged at most once during the day, we assume that the EVs are
equipped with suitable battery size that can support their daily
2.1. Definition of cases driven distances. Therefore, for each EV a set of possible battery
sizes with sufficient capacity are defined and then the battery size
To analyze the impacts of penetration levels of the EVs and is randomly assigned from this set to each EV.
V2G, charging schedule and charging modes on the power grid, The state of charge (SOC) indicates the level of remained
different cases are defined as shown in Table 1. In each case, we electric power in the battery at the point of charging. Therefore,
change the level of one parameter while keeping the others fixed. we define a set of possible SOC for each EV by considering their
For each case, N random days are generated by the simulation battery size and daily driving distance. To convey how a set of
to calculate the corresponding performance measures of the sys- possible SOC are generated, consider a driver assigned with the
tem. These cases are used for both types of grids (constant and battery size enough for 20 km to drive with full capacity and the
stochastic power supply). average daily distance of 10 km. Each iteration of the simulation
The first set of cases are designed to measure the impact of corresponds a random day. Therefore, the random day generated
the penetration level of EVs on the power grid while the other in the considered iteration could be one day after a previous full
parameters are kept fixed. In these cases, the level of the EVs are charge for the considered driver (driver only drove 10 km since
changed from 0% to 50%. It is assumed that people can charge his last charge), it means SOC could be 0.5. Alternatively, the
their EVs at any time after they arrive home. This policy is called random day generated could correspond the second day after a
uncontrolled charging in the rest of the paper. The second set of previous full charge (driver already drove 20 km). In this case,
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Table 1
Structure of defined cases.
Case EVs penetration (%) Level of V2G (%) Charging mode Charging location Schedule
1 0 to 50% 10% Un-controlled Everywhere Policy 2
2 10% 0 to 50% Un-controlled Everywhere Policy 2
3 10% 0 to 50% Off-peak Home Policy 2
4 10% 10% Un-controlled Everywhere Policy 1 to Policy 5

Table 2
Used parameters in Monte Carlo simulation.
Simulation parameters
% EVs The percentage of penetrated EVs into the market
% V2G The percentage of the EVs that participate in V2G system
Battery Size EVs battery capacity
Driving Distance Average daily driven distances by EVs
SOC State of charge indicates percentage of remaining electricity in the battery
r Random number in each iteration as personal preferences for charging
Charging Loc. Four predefined charging centers (home, work, mall, public station)
Charging Time The required time to have fully charged battery
Discharge time The required time to discharge the battery
Arrival Time The arrival time to charging centers for each EV
Departure Time The departure time from charging centers for each EV
n The number of iterations

SOC will be 0. For this driver, the set of possible SOC is (0 and Our focus is on the wind power as one of the cleanest energy
0.5). For each driver such sets are defined, and in each iteration, sources. In each iteration of the simulation that reflects a random
we randomly assign a SOC from the set for the considered EV. day, an hourly pattern of supply power by the wind source is
Based on SOC and required power for the next trip, the charging selected from the possible supply patterns by considering their
decision is randomly made. If the remained energy in the each distribution. The selected pattern reflects the electricity gener-
EV’s battery is not enough for the next trip, driver must charge ated by the wind each hour. The total supply power of the grid
the EV. Otherwise, we assume that there is still a 50% chance for is updated by using the selected pattern. Therefore, at the end of
the EV to be charged. Therefore, we generate a random number each iteration, we have a random supply power.
in each iteration and if this random number is smaller than the We ran the Monte Carlo simulation in MATLAB software to
predefined threshold (50%), the driver charges the EV, otherwise generate ‘‘N’’ different possibilities for hourly power demand,
the corresponding EV is not charged. available power in the battery for transmitting to the grid and
The next step is assigning the charging location to each EV. power generated by the wind source. Finally, for applied cases,
This is done by randomly selecting a charging location based on the daily load and supply profile is obtained by calculating the
assumed distribution of charging preferences of the drivers. In average of N iterations. The flow of the Monte Carlo algorithm
this simulation, we assume that charging occurs at most once that was developed in this study is presented in Fig. 4.
during day at the selected location. We consider four charging
locations for the EVs: home, workplace, malls, and public stations. 2.3. Performance measures for the grid
Once the charging location is selected for the driver, the arrival
and departure time to the selected location is assigned for the In this paper, we introduce innovative and novel approaches
driver by considering the distribution of the arrival and departure for evaluating the performance of power grids under penetrating
times of the charging location. The duration of the charging is by the EVs and V2G systems. The RESs with an unpredictable
determined by considering the characteristics of the chargers and intermittent nature affects patterns of the supply power
at the selected charging location, the SOC and the battery size. and subsequently the performance of the network. For having
For each hour starting from the charging time until the end a precise analysis, based on levels of RES in power generation,
of charging, electricity drawn from the grid is recorded as the we consider two types of the power grid, constant and stochastic
demand of the corresponding EV. power supply. In the following sections, we introduce the novel
For the EVs with V2G capabilities, charging happens the same tools for analyzing the power grid performance in three fields,
way as explained before. However, since these EVs will support namely reliability, emission, and cost under defined cases.
the grid at the peak hours, we assumed that V2G vehicles would
always charge their car once each day and they start the day 2.3.1. Reliability of the power grid
with full capacity. Moreover, we assume that the workplaces Power grid reliability is the ability of the system to deliver
are the only centers for the EVs to release their extra stored expected service during both planned and unplanned events [36].
The North American Electric Reliability Corporation defined relia-
power in the battery to the grid during the peak demand period.
bility as ‘‘the degree to which the performances of the elements of
At the workplace, a starting time for discharging is randomly
the electric system result in power being delivered to consumers
selected between the arrival and departure times. Depending on
within accepted standards and in the amount desired [37]’’. In
the discharger type and the remaining electricity in the battery,
the following sections, we suggest a novel and innovative index
the duration of discharging is determined. For each hour from
for measuring the reliability of the constant and stochastic power
the start time to the end, the electricity transferred to the grid
supply.
is recorded.
At the end of each iteration, the total demand withdrawn from 2.3.1.1. Reliability index for constant power supply. For constant
the grid for each hour is calculated by summing the required de- power supply, the power grid consists of a lower rate of RESs.
mand of all the EVs subtracted from total electricity transmitted Therefore, it is assumed that the available generation capacity is
to the grid from each EV with V2G capability. almost fixed throughout the day. In this condition, the demand is
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Fig. 3. The distribution of driving distance in Istanbul.

Fig. 4. The flow of the Monte Carlo algorithm.

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B. Bibak and H. Tekiner-Mogulkoc Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks 26 (2021) 100429

preferred to be constant. In this paper, we propose a new index  N
1 ∑
for evaluating the reliability of the power grid under different DRFzj = √ (Dfzhj − Dfzj )2 N = 24 (6)
cases in the constant power supply that we call it the reliability N
h=1
factor (RF). RF deflects the fluctuation of the demand during the
where, Df zhj refers to difference between power supply and
day. The schematic and concept of RF is shown in Fig. 5. RF values
demand in the hth hour for zth case in iteration j, DRF zj
of each considered case are calculated as follows:
refers to the reliability value in the jth iteration of case z,
For each case z, generate N random days/iterations (j =
1, . . . , N) Szhj refers to the supplied power in the hth hour in iteration
For each iteration j, j and Dzhj refers to the demand in the hth hour during the
day in iteration j.
1. Rank the electricity demand in descending order 3. Assign the reliability factor to each case z based on the
2. Calculate the Dizij , the difference between ith highest following formula:
ranked demand value and ith lowest ranked demand value ( )
DRFz = max DRFzj j = 1 to N (7)
in jth iteration of case z by using the following formula:

Dizij = Hzij − Lzij i = 1 to 12 (1) where, DRFz refers to the reliability factor of zth case.

where Hzij refers to the ith highest ranked demand value in As mentioned before, each chosen case z is run with N itera-
iteration j and Lzij refers to the ith lowest ranked demand tions, so we will have ‘‘N’’ DRF values. In assigning a specific DRF
value in iteration j. value to each case, we consider the worst case of all the iterations’
3. Calculate the standard deviation of differences using the DRF values.
following formula:

 N
1 ∑ 2.3.2. Emission of the power grid
RFzj = √ (Dizij − Dizij )2 N = 12 (2) Evaluating the amount of CO2 emitted by the power grid for
N the applied cases is a good criterion for measuring the effec-
i=1
tiveness of electrified transportation on the environment. The
where, RF zj refers to the reliability factor of case z if the demand CO2 emission indicates the total CO2 emitted for satisfying the
is as in random day j. demand of the EVs and V2G and the total CO2 emitted by the
We consider the worst case to represent the RF for case z. That transportation system. Therefore, for each iteration of the sim-
is, ulation, the following procedure is applied for calculating the
emission by the IC cars and generating the power. Then simula-
( )
RFz = max RFzj j = 1 to N (3)
tion is run for ‘‘N’’ iterations. Assigning a specific emission value
where, RF z refers to reliability factor of zth case. Higher value to each case z was done by the following procedure:
for RF indicates higher fluctuation in demand curve. The RF for
flattened curve should be close to zero. 1. For each iteration j, emission by power plants for satisfying
the demand of EVs and V2G are calculated as following
2.3.1.2. Reliability index for stochastic power supply. For stochastic
formula:
power supply, the rate of RESs for generating the power is high.
Due to their intermittent and stochastic nature, the supply power m

profile is not even. Therefore, in such systems, the stochastic Pzj = DEzxj ∗ EMzxj x = 1 to mth source of generating power
demand that follows the pattern of the power supply is preferred, x
and the peak demand should shift to hours when the level of (8)
supply is high. Therefore, we define another index that we call
it developed reliability factor (DRF). As mentioned before, in this where Pzj refers to the power generation emission for sat-
analysis and based on the suggested Monte Carlo simulation, N isfying the demand of EVs and V2G, DE zxj refers to the total
random days (iterations) will be generated under each case z. In demand of xth source of energy in the jth iteration, EM zxj
each iteration ‘‘j’’, a random demand and a random supply profile refers to emission per MWh of xth source of energy in jth
of the simulation outputs are generated. For each iteration j, we iteration.
calculate the value of the DRF that is equal to standard deviation 2. For each iteration j, emission by IC cars is calculated using
of the difference between the supply and demand for each hour, the following formula:
as shown in Fig. 6. Our ideal is decreasing the differentiation in
the demand and supply’s pattern. We can define the DRF for each Izj = DDzj ∗ EPzj (9)
case as follows: Izj refers to the emission by IC cars in jth iteration, DDzj
For each case z, generate N random days/iterations (j = refers to the total driven distance by IC cars in jth itera-
1, . . . ., N) tion and EP zj refers to the emission per kilometer in each
iteration of case z.
1. Select supply and demand profiles randomly in each itera-
tion j. 3. Calculating the total emission in each iteration of case z.
2. Calculate the standard deviation of the differences between Ezj = Izj + Pzj j = 1 to N (10)
supply and demand profile for each hour using the follow-
ing formula: where Ezj refers to the total emission in iteration j,
4. Calculating the assigned emission to each case z.
Dfzhj = Szhj − Dzhj (4)
N AEz = Av erage(Ezj ) j = 1 to N (11)
1 ∑
Dfzj = Dfzhj N = 24 (5)
N where AEz refers to the assigned emission for zth case,
h=1

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B. Bibak and H. Tekiner-Mogulkoc Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks 26 (2021) 100429

Fig. 5. The schematic of proposed technique for evaluating fluctuation under constant power supply.

Fig. 6. The schematic of proposed technique for evaluating fluctuation under stochastic power supply.

2.3.3. Costs of the power grid For stochastic power supply, the fixed RM is not an efficient
Analyzing the total costs of the power grid under applied way to assure the reliability of the system. Therefore, we intro-
cases is another criterion for the policy makers to evaluate the duce a flexible RM that is a function of power supply and adjusts
economic cases. The total cost is the summation of the costs asso- itself with the level of power supply. In this case, the flexible
ciated with electricity generation and the cost of traditional trans- RM demand is defined as a line in 10% below supply level. The
portation fleets. Based on the recent studies, the new gasoline concept of flexible RM demand is indicated in Fig. 8.
cars consume 7 Liter per 100 kilometers in urban regions [38]. By The penalty cost is applied if the total power demand exceeds
the defined reserve margin. For those cases, the total costs are
using the distribution of daily driven distances, the total cost of
multiplied by a large number ($100,000). In other words, this
IC cars can be calculated easily. To monitor if the current system
large number indicates that for satisfying the extra demand, the
can support the new demand of the EVs, the penalty cost is
power grid should increase its power capacity and invest money
introduced. The penalty cost is applied when the reserve margin in new power plants. The following procedure is applied for
(RM) is violated. calculating the total cost of each case z.
The RM ensures that there is enough power supply for sat-
isfying the power demand especially during the peak period. If 1. For each iteration j of case z, the cost associated with
the system has the capacity that is close to the peak demand, electricity generation is calculated using the following for-
there might be an electricity shortage when just one power plant mulas: ∑m
cannot operate as usual or there is a sudden increase in demand. If TDzhj <= RM zhj ; CEzj = x DEzxj ∗ CMzxj x = 1 to mth
That is why the system needs to monitor the supply conditions source of generating power
and apply RM. According to the U.S. Energy Information Adminis- m

tration [39], the reserve margin is capacity minus demand, where Else if ; CEzj = DEzxj ∗ CMzxj ∗ 100,000 i = 1 to mth
(12)
capacity is the expected maximum available supply, and demand x

is expected peak demand. For instance, a reserve margin of 10% source of generating power
means that an electric system has excess capacity in the amount
where CE zj refers to the cost for generating power for
of 10% of expected peak demand. In this paper, we assume that
satisfying the demand of EVs and V2G, RM zhj refers to the
the RM is 10%. reserve margin of the jth iteration in hth hour, TDzhj refers
For constant power supply, a fixed reserve margin is applied to total demand of the jth iteration in hth hour, DE zxj refers
and a threshold for the demand is determined to capture the to the demand of the xth source in iteration j, CM zxj refers
cases where the current capacity is not sufficient to satisfy the to the cost per MWh of xth source of energy in the jth
new demand. In this case, the fixed RM demand is defined as iteration.
a line in 10% below the available supply power. In Fig. 7, the 2. For each iteration j of case z, the cost of traditional trans-
concept of fixed RM demand is indicated. portation fleet is calculated using the following
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B. Bibak and H. Tekiner-Mogulkoc Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks 26 (2021) 100429

Fig. 7. The concept of fixed RM demand.

Fig. 8. The concept of flexible RM demand.

formula: 3.1. Power grid identity

CTzj = DDzj ∗ CPzj (13) Table 3 indicates the source of power generation in the city
CT zj refers to the cost by IC cars in the jth iteration, DDzj of Istanbul. Based on [35], the Istanbul’s demand accounts 16% of
refers to the total driven distance by IC cars in the jth iter- the total demand in Turkey. Therefore, we assume that 16% of the
ation and CP zj refers to the cost of gasoline per kilometer total installed capacity in Turkey could be assigned to Istanbul.
in each iteration of case z. Thus, the total installed capacity of the power in Istanbul that
is the summation of whole energy sources’ capacity is 13,450
3. Calculating the total cost in each iteration of case z.
MW. Since the share of generated power by RSEs in Istanbul is
TCzj = CEzj + CTzj j = 1 to N (14) low, the structure of this system is like constant power supply.
The RM is applied to the installed power after considering the
where TC zj refers to the total cost in iteration j, availability factor and energy loss. The availability factor (AF) is
4. Calculating the assigned cost to each case z. the percentage of time available to provide energy for the grid
and the availability of a power plant is mostly a factor of its
ACz = Av erage(TCzj ) j = 1 to N (15)
reliability [40]. When electricity is transmitted from one location
where AC z refers to the assigned cost for zth case. to another, the energy loses its initial value because some of the
initial power is converted to disordered forms of energy, like
sound, light and heat [41]. Since the RESs are limited, some days
3. Numerical analysis for Istanbul case
the generated power by the wind and solar power plants are
almost zero. The generated power from these sources is assumed
For our study, we chose the city of Istanbul, Turkey as a case to be zero in calculating the RM.
study for evaluating the impact of EVs and V2G system pene- For simulating the stochastic power supply, we add 2141 MWh
tration on the reliability, emission, and costs of the power grid installed capacity of wind power to the system. Because of the
based on our suggested methodology. Istanbul with a population intermittent nature of wind power, we consider the possible
of more than 15 million (about 19% of Turkey’s total population) patterns of wind-generated power according to the following
is the optimal city for considering such an analysis; moreover, section.
the existing potential of implementing the EV fleet in Istanbul
is higher than other Turkish cities. Therefore, all the relevant 3.2. Wind power attributes
and influential parameters such as drivers’ behaviors, driving
distances, arrival/departure time to/from charging centers, etc., In this study, to analyze the impacts of RESs and simultane-
are collected for the city of Istanbul, Turkey [35]. ously defined cases under stochastic power supply, we focused
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B. Bibak and H. Tekiner-Mogulkoc Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks 26 (2021) 100429

Table 3
Power grid identity in Istanbul [42].
Energy Installed Variable Emitted CO2 Availability Energy loss Available The worst Available
resource power costs (ton/MWh) Factor (AF) (%) energy after case by energy after
(MWh) ($/MWh) applying eliminating applying RM
AF and loss wind and 10% (MWh)
(MWh) solar power
Wind 1070 0.005 0.011 30% 8% 295 0 0
Hydro 3270 0.002 0.024 50% 8% 1504 1504 1354
Geothermal 172 0.011 0.038 75% 8% 119 119 107
Solar 3 0.003 0.045 50% 8% 1 0 0
Biomass 73 5.272 0.230 75% 8% 50 50 45
Waste 22 0.001 0.230 85% 8% 17 17 16
Natural Gas 4299 3.602 0.490 85% 8% 3362 3362 3026
LNG 0 3.602 0.490 77% 8% 0 0 0
Oil 111 3.602 0.650 70% 8% 71 71 64
Coal 3187 4.474 0.820 85% 8% 2492 2492 2243
Stream 1243 0.001 0.000 50% 8% 572 572 515
Total 13,450 9222 738 8484 8187 7369

on one of the cleanest energy sources, wind power. In order period in the workplaces which shaves the peak demand and
to analyze the effects of wind power on the power grid, we flattens the demand profile. In Case 4, we analyze the influence
accounted for the distribution of wind production such that we of the changing schedule in public stations on the reliability of
recognized five main patterns of power generated by wind power the power grid based on defined policies for the EVs’ drivers.
plants as shown in Fig. 9. According to the frequency of data in As shown in Fig. 10, the lowest RF value happens in Policy 5,
each pattern, on average 12% of wind-generated power follows when charging can be done between 1 a.m. and 12 p.m. Therefore,
Pattern 1, 33% follows Pattern 2, 11% follows Pattern 3, 5% follows charging the EVs at midnight when the demand is at its lowest
Pattern 4 and 39% follows Pattern 5. Based on the given wind level and the RESs is at its highest-level increases the reliability of
profile distribution, the simulation randomly selects a pattern in the power grid. In Policy 1, it is assumed that people who prefer
each iteration and adds it to the total supply power as stochastic to charge their cars at public stations can charge their cars at any
power supply. time during the day. These results show that if charging at public
station is not controlled, the grid might not benefit from the V2G
4. Results and discussion as much as it intended.

In this section, based on the defined cases (Table 1) and the 4.1.2. Emission analysis for constant power supply
outputs of the simulation, the power system is evaluated accord- Fig. 11 illustrates the influence of the EVs and V2G on the total
ing to three main areas: Reliability, Emission and Costs. Due to CO2 emission in the constant power grid under different cases.
the stochastic nature of RESs and for analysis precision, we define With the constant power supply, the rate of RESs is low, the main
two power supply systems and provide our analysis separately. source of power generation is based on oil and gas, and pene-
trating the EVs and V2G systems into the market, consequently
increasing demand in the system, emits more CO2 compared to
4.1. Analysis for constant power supply
the baseline. In Case 1, the minimum emission happens when
the EVs penetration level is 15%. After this level, increasing the
In this section, we analyze the behavior of the constant power
penetration level causes the emission is increased. For example,
supply under applied cases in three main fields: reliability, emis-
with 50% EVs penetration level, more than 1680 tons of CO2 is
sion, and cost of the system. In each field the effects of influential
emitted into the atmosphere compared to baseline. Therefore,
parameters on the power grid will be evaluated based on the
increasing demand increases the CO2 emission. In Case 2 and
outputs of the suggested simulation.
Case 3, increasing the rate of V2G does not reduce the CO2
emission because the grid consists of sources with high emission
4.1.1. Reliability analysis for constant power supply rates. Therefore, shifting the demand does not help to reduce the
To evaluate the reliability of the system under constant power emission. For that same reason, changing the charging schedule
supply we compare the RF values in different applied cases, as (Case 4) does not improve the emission of the system. However,
shown in Fig. 10. In Case 1, all variables are fixed except for the Policy 5 has better positive effects on the emission compared
penetration level of the EVs; we try to find the impacts of the to the other policies. Since charging at midnight through early
EVs penetration on the reliability of the power grid. Since in the morning (Policy 5) increases the demand level during this period,
un-controlled mode, there are no limitations for charging sched- the RESs (clean and green sources) are at the highest level.
ule, increasing the number of EVs intensifies the peak demand
because of charging during the peak demand, and consequently 4.1.3. Economic analysis for constant power supply
the reliability of the system is decreased, especially after 20% EVs In addition to influences of EVs and V2G on the reliability
penetration (increasing the value of RF means decreasing the reli- and emission of the power grid, analyzing the feasibility and
ability). In Case 2 and Case 3, we evaluate the impacts of the V2G economic aspects of implementing the electrified transportation
system on the reliability of the system. In Case 2, by increasing fleet plays a crucial role. As mentioned before, we defined a
the percentage of V2G, the reliability is not improved because penalized value ($100,000) for cases, where peak-demands are
in the un-controlled charging mode there is not a stable balance higher than the calculated reserve margin. That means in order
between charging/discharging time, and EVs cannot support the to satisfy the demand in those cases we should invest money to
grid during peak times. In Case 3, increasing the percentage of develop the power grid. According to Case 1 in Fig. 12, increasing
the V2G has positive impacts on the reliability of the system. the EVs penetration decreases the total costs of the power grid.
The reliability improved because the EVs charge their batteries The petroleum products, especially gasoline in Turkey, are ex-
at home during the off-peak period and discharge during peak tremely expensive and using electricity instead of these products
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B. Bibak and H. Tekiner-Mogulkoc Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks 26 (2021) 100429

Fig. 9. Patterns of power generation by wind power [42].

Fig. 10. Influences of the EVs and V2G system on the reliability of constant power supply.

Fig. 11. Influences of the EVs and V2G system on the constant power supply emission.

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Fig. 12. Influences of the EVs and V2G system on the constant power supply costs.

decreases the total costs of the system. Under the assumed case, system has more influential effects on reliability than Case 2 (un-
the minimum cost of the system happens at 17% EVs penetration, controlled mode). For stochastic system, changing the schedule of
such that the system can support the electrified transportation charging (Case 4) does not improve the reliability of the system
system until the rate of 17% which saves more than $1.1 million because the V2G penetration is low to make significant changes
each day. Over this volume of EVs penetration, the system faces on the system. In this condition and under the applied case,
shortages in the power supply and a budget is needed to increase compared to other policies, Policy 5 has better effects on the
the capacity of the power grid by constructing new power plants. reliability of the system when the drivers charge their batteries
Case 2 and Case 3 indicate the influence of the V2G system on late night or early morning.
the cost of the power grid. Compared to the system with no
EVs penetration (baseline), the V2G system decreases the total 4.2.2. Emission analysis for stochastic power supply
daily cost of the system by about $660,000, but increasing the Fig. 14 shows the influence of EVs and V2G on the total
participation in the V2G does not have significant impacts on the CO2 emission in the stochastic power grid under different cases.
cost of the power grid. Case 4 shows the influence of the charging Based on the figures, penetrating the electrified transportation
schedule on the cost of the system. The values are very close, but fleet under stochastic power supply significantly decreases the
the minimum cost of the power grid occurs in Policy 5. In this total emission of the system. In Case 1, the minimum emission
policy, the EVs will be charged during the night or early morning happens when the EVs penetration level is 15%. Under this con-
when the electricity fee and the costs of supply the power are dition for stochastic power supply, the emission level decreases
less than other times. sharply (more than a 6700 ton decrease in total CO2 emission
of the power grid compared to baseline). In Case 2 and Case 3,
penetrating the V2G system and its integration with RESs has
4.2. Analysis for stochastic power supply
positive influences on emission and decreases the emissions by
about 6400 tons for each day. However the minimum emission
This section analyzes the influences of EVs penetration and
level occurs when the rate of the V2G system is 10% (due to scale
the V2G system on the stochastic power supply under applied
of the figure, the positive slope of the graph is not tangible). In
cases. Our analysis evaluates the reliability, emission and cost of
Case 4, Policy 5 has the lowest emission level compared to other
the system based on outputs of suggested simulation. We want
policies. Further, charging at midnight and early morning (Policy
to see how changing the influential parameters can improve the 5) increases the demand level in this period when the RESs (clean
performance of the power grid. and green sources) are at the highest level.

4.2.1. Reliability analysis for stochastic power supply 4.2.3. Economic analysis for stochastic power supply
To evaluate the reliability of the system under stochastic Fig. 15 shows the influence of EVs and V2G on the total costs
power supply, we compared the DRF values in different applied of the system for stochastic power supply under different cases.
cases, as shown in Fig. 13. In Case 1, increasing the percentage The results of the system are the same as the previous system. In
of EVs under un-controlled charging decreases the reliability be- Case 1, the EVs penetration reduces the total cost of the system
cause increased demand occurs when the level of RESs-generated and supports the EVs penetration until a rate of 20%. At this
power is at its lowest level. The power generated by RESs is level of penetration more than $1.3 million can be saved each
wasted but if we motivate the drivers to charge their EVs at night day compared to the baseline. In this system, penetration higher
or early morning, it might positively affect the reliability of the than 20% needs a higher supply power that consequently needs a
power grid. In both Case 2 and Case 3, increasing the percentage big budget to increase the power capacity. In Case 2 and Case 3,
of the V2G system improves the reliability of the system (DFR applying the V2G system decreases the total cost of the system
value is decreased) because for stochastic power supply, charging however, Case 3 (off-peak mode) has less cost than Case 2 (un-
the EVs happens when the RESs rate is high and discharging controlled mode). Finally, Case 4 illustrates the positive impact
occurs during peak demand. In Case 3 (off-peak mode), the V2G of changing the charging schedule on the total cost of system.
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B. Bibak and H. Tekiner-Mogulkoc Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks 26 (2021) 100429

Fig. 13. Influences of the EVs and V2G system on the reliability of stochastic power supply.

Fig. 14. Influences of the EVs and V2G system on the stochastic power supply emission.

The results show that Policy 5 (like the previous system) is more defined: constant power supply with a lower level of RESs, and
effective for decreasing the total cost of the power grid. stochastic power supply with higher level of RESs. Istanbul as the
biggest city in Turkey is chosen to test the effectiveness of our
5. Conclusion methodology. The overall focus is to determine how penetrating
the EVs and V2G system can integrate with RESs to balance the
This study analyzes the influences of integrating EVs (electric demand profile and subsequently improve the reliability, total
vehicles) and V2G (vehicle to grid) systems with RESs (renewable emission, and cost of the power network. Based on these results,
energy sources), especially with respect to wind power, on the the conclusions are as follows:
power grid in three main areas: reliability, emissions, and cost For constant power supply, we consider three main factors
under defined cases. Different cases are defined and utilized to when evaluating the efficiency of the power grid under applied
evaluate the performance of the V2G system in different types of cases. First, we focus on reliability of the system and introduced
power grids based on the availability of RESs for power genera- an innovative index for measuring the reliability of the system
tion. Due to the stochastic nature of implementing EVs, V2G and that is called reliability factor (RF). In un-controlled charging
RESs, a novel and applicable Monte-Carlo simulation in MATLAB mode, increasing the penetration of EVs and V2G into the market
software is proposed. The strength and novelty of our method- decreases the reliability and causes fluctuation in the power de-
ology is analyzing the reliability, emission, and cost of power mand. As indicated in Fig. 10-a, the RF of current system without
grids simultaneously for the first time, by implementing the V2G EVs increased from 743 units to 969 after penetrating 50% EVs
under different patterns of power supply. Therefore, in the first (increasing value of RF equals increasing the fluctuation). The rate
step, two power supply patterns based on availability of RESs are of increasing the RF (decreasing reliability) is intensified with EVs
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B. Bibak and H. Tekiner-Mogulkoc Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks 26 (2021) 100429

Fig. 15. Influences of the EVs and V2G system on the stochastic power supply costs.

penetration rates higher than 20%. On other hand, in off-peak The results indicate that stochastic power supply with a higher
charging, penetrating the EVs and increasing the V2G rate im- level of renewable energy sources in power generation provides a
proves the reliability of the system and makes a flattened power more efficient environment for implementing EVs and especially
demand. Since constant power supply is based on petroleum the V2G system in terms of reducing the total cost, emission
products, it is not considered a green system. Introducing the EVs and improving the reliability of the system. In addition, under
into the market under any conditions does not decrease the emis- off-peak charging the V2G system is more efficient compared to
sion level because any level of penetration makes a new demand un-controlled charging.
that must be satisfied with petroleum-based power plants. In the
worst case scenario, introducing the 50% EVs under this assumed CRediT authorship contribution statement
case, emits more than 1680 tons of CO2 into the atmosphere
compared to the baseline. The outputs indicate that with constant Bijan Bibak: Methodology, Software, Validation, Formal anal-
power supply, introducing the EVs and V2G system decreases the ysis, Data curation, Writing - original draft, Visualization. Hat-
total costs of system. For example, in Istanbul as our case study, ice Tekiner-Mogulkoc: Conceptualization, Validation, Investiga-
the current power grid can support 17% EVs penetration and save tion, Resources, Writing - review & editing, Supervision, Project
more than $1.1 million daily compared to the baseline. Anything administration.
over this level requires a large budget to increase the capacity of
the power grid by constructing new power plants.
Declaration of competing interest
With stochastic power supply, the unpredictable and stochas-
tic nature of RESs for generating power can intensify the com-
The authors declare that they have no known competing finan-
plexity of the system. In order to cover all the possibilities, we
cial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared
must focus on supply power patterns in addition to demand
to influence the work reported in this paper.
profiles. First, we focus on the reliability of the system and we
introduce an innovative index for measuring the reliability of
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