‘bul 1S piscxe}e fs halls} ity Jrohihulian —pcontiousus probobilthy dishihutio 1a dake on onal _o_limitec| puimber of Valles ie th. athe paohabil ity thok syou_wene low in a aiven mcalhs ince theee mre oy ly Jo possible Value fia months t of the year these axe \wo types of dliscrel-e probability List. ay Binamia) nishibudi on. e+ b> Poission Dishihution conovats probability clishibuli Jn_this vari i le _uncley cansidercciqn | olicwned! to fake on ony vale -toith yo given . FANGS | d In_cankHnusu probability distthubion hy | one type of dishthuetian + | a Namal Nishibution ! 7 ; a = SS on ebee] AeCol ee fualis fo babi 7 boilomed!! 2 etl ee tee ao seal nyt shee ee AS ae qelp Hh joven tls —tiin|_class nels the — Te fiom drial to tial afin any_di thution noe pon ih dacs nob femain Can Jan a Knorsia\ cticibition — [fore © xemoth the dmne_yn eSch 4 probaliliiy of drassin oe tc oe vices and tailur Cpondg s Liemain: =. ot dishdbution santiol a, th pxobol SViby of geting heod oo 7 i, Sitmiliarly the _4 balls tien bos choleliniad THE adh te okie Walt js_ dass po} changein———— —_Alcessive «chains with veplacement as hinamia) dishstbubio.n Bulan canbroany to this, yt =e oie_ook replaced atlerenchtia $Yoen Ht bea horsalbahibulise] ———————-—— Remark The hicks ales rN above four condijion oxe_also known as “Bevnoulli haals!44:2+1. Probability Function of Binomial Distribution. If X denotes the num trials satisfying the above conditions, then X is a random variable which can take the since in n trials we may get no success (all failures), one success, two successes, We are interested in finding the corresponding probabilities of 0, 1, 2, ...,m stcesses, The expression for the probability of r successes is given by : The gee p= P(X =r) ="C, pl.g’-"sr=0,1,2,...50 ber of sue, Values 0, fe ty +» all them gee Proof. Let $, denote the success and F} denote the failure atthe ith trial ; /= 1,2, ..,n. Then Ee P(S)=p and P(F)=q 3 i= 1,240 a The probability of r successes and consequently (n ~ r) failures in a sequence of n-tialsin ay fel specified order, say, S, Fy Sy Sq Fs Fe... .-- Sq—1 Fy where S occurs r times and F occurs (n-) taa given by : PLS) A Fp AS3 VSO Fs VF 60 Sp Fl = P(S1). P(F2). P(S3). P(Ss). PFs). PUF¢) +. ++ PCS 1)- POF) [By compound probability theorem, since the trials are independent]. ye ee [From (+) =[pxpxpx......rtimes] x [gx qx qX... ...(n—P) times] =pt.gr- alt) But in n trials, the total number of possible ways of obtaining r successes and (n — 7) failures is nt : Tinta or ase all of which are mutually disjoint, The probability for each of these "C, mutually exclusive WaYS 5 gg poe : : ing of 8 given in (**), viz., p'q"~". Hence by the addition theorem of probability, the required probe successes and consequently (n — r) failures in n trials, in any order what-so-ever is given PY PR =r) =plq-raprgt-re + pr gh=" C, terms) onan, ="C, Pg" 57=0, 1,2, ct TABLE 141 ; BINOMIAL PR! Pik=t : Remark 1 Putting r= 0, 1, 2, ....m in (14-1), we get r vO probabilities of 0, 1,2... n successes respectively in rept ae and these are tabulated in Table 14-1. ° ont, ince these probabilit ; i the bane ese Probabilities are the successive terms in 4 "OP ‘pansion "it i i i distributions z (@ + p)", it is called the Binomialgone" x 14:3" DP =P) +p0)+... ¢ptm Ha"#"C, gi pang 4 qt2p? son “arena Pits 44, The expression for POX = r) in (14-1) is known _ Gaptge) ration with parameters n and p. The random vatiable the probability (mass) function of the Binomial tl Variat with parameters and p fom variable X following the probability law (14-1) is called a ‘he Binomial distribution is complete aeunown. Obviously, gs known when wht y determined, ie, all the probabilt oe is given aes ” potas can be obtained, if m and “4, Since the random variable X takes only i it “iy dsttion. only integral values, Binomial distribution is a discrete . For n trials, the binomial probability distributi ; L ane ee Probability distribution consists of (n + 1) terms, the successive binomial Coy "Cry "Cry soy "Cyety "Cy since "Co = "Cy = 1, the first and last coefficient will always be 1. Further, since "C= "Cary the binomial coefficients will be symmetric, Moreover, we have for all values of x: (Lt a)MaMCy HPCE MC, P+ HC, a Putting x = 1 we get: (LIPS RCy Cy PCat a Cy = ACo# AC +"Cy + ity the sum of binomial coefficients is 2. “The values of the Binomial coefficients for different values of n can be obtained conveniently from the Pascal's triangle, named after the French mathematician Blaise Pascal (1623-62) and is given below : PASCAL'S TRIANGLE [SHOWING COEFFICIENTS OF TERMS IN (a+)'] +0, =2" Value of n Binomial coefficients Sum (2") 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 4 3 1 3 3 1 8 4 1 4 6 4 1 16 5 1 5 10 10 5 1 32 6 1 6 15 20 15 6 1 64 1 1 1 1 35 35 a o 1 128 8 1 8 28 56 10 56 2B 8 1 256 9 1 9 36 84 126 126 84 6. OD 1 512 1 1 4 10 20 a2 tts me sas 1, each term in the above table can be taking the first and last term ther side of it in the precedin he bionomial coefficients a It can be easily seen that, taking obtained by adding the two terms on eit out earlier, it can be easily verified that 1 coefficients is 2”. 142-2 Constants of Bionomial Dist 5 Pore =n) rp) ptr) 0 0 129c,q°-!p 21Cyqt-2p? Dog? p? eding line (Le, the Hine above it). As pointed re symmetric and the sum of the ibution wen-ols aps nprMean GErp()="Cigt1p+28Cz "2 Po# OAT Pi het ips =1) 1-2) qt'p+2 OAD gia p23 CS aD ibe ot p ODD gee 3pre, tpt] he Teq@-1)q" erp [gt=!40-1G gtp th iCa gt 3p on tp] | =np(q+p)*? (By Binomial expansion for positive in integer jy index) =np Le p+qell 2 Variance = Er? ple) - Lip] = Er? pO ~ (mean) Zr? pr) = 12x, g" Ip +2 "Cy g"-?p 2432 9C3 gh pr+..+ nr pn AnQ0=1) 9-22 4 A= WN=D) 9 n-3 93 i =ng*'p+ on grt prs 31 Prt any np [g2-1 + 2¢n~ 1) g"-2p 4F8~ Dn - 2.4" 9p? + pet] -1)@-2 any [farts ngt pO TBED grapes + pei} +{o-Dartp+O-DO-D4" 9p? +e | =np [{(q + py} += Dp {92-24 (0-2) G3 pt tpt 3) =anp [@+py'+@-1)pq+p)"-?] =np (1+(@1-lp] GC. p=q=l) Substituting in (*) we get Variance = np[ +np—p] - (np)? = np[ + np ~ p- np] = np{l - p]=npq Hence for the binomial distribution, Mean = np +(14-2) and Variance = py = 6? = npq . Similarly we can obtain the other constants given below : Hs ="pq(q-p) — ...(14-4) and by = npg [1 + 3pq(n-2)] Hence, the moment coefficient of skewness is : By ahs? _lnpq(q-pyP_@~pP He (npg) npq and y =+VB) =, = EP a res Coefficient of kurtosis is given by : By = Bs. MPall + 3pgin—2)]_ 1 +3pq (n-2) ees apeee i hy (npqy’ pq fa B, =3+ ma ‘14-7) and fe = B1-3= pq Remarks. 1. Since q is the probability (of failure), we always have 0 — al-2)20 : parenting 7") Fp, we ge: 6" (p) =(-2)=-2n < 0. => 1-220 = p= Jing (**), we concluds = is maxi sence, using (**, we conclude that Var(X) = @(p), is maximum when p=4 = ge l-p= 1-322" imum Variance= (1 eaxdxdet ‘Maxim (PA), gain = "*IXR=G Hence, if X~ Bon, p), Var Qs F wa(14-Te) ze, forthe binomial distribution with parameters n and p, variance cannot exceed n/4. 4. As no», from equations (14-6) and (14-7), we get £130, 170 B33, and 420 4, From (14-6) we see that Bionomial division is symmetrical if B, =0 > q=p = G- g+p=0) From (14-6) we observe that, it is positively skewed if 4 >0 > q-p>0 > 1-2p>0 2 1 >2p = Lop = pst Similarly, it is negatively skewed if n <0 > q-p<0 = pry Hence, we arrive at the following conclusion : “Binomial distribution is symmetrical if p = skewed if p > 0-5.” __ Obviously, from (14-6) and (14-64), distibution becomes less pronounced, irespective ofthe values ofp and. 1423, Mode of Binomial Distribution. Mode is the value of X which maximises the probability function, Thus if X = r gives mode then we should have pr)> p(r-) and p(r)> p(r+ 1) +148) et X be a Binomial variate with parameters = 05, Inis positively skewed if p < 0-5 and negatively we observe that as n increases, the skewness of the binomial Working Rule to Find Mode of Binomial Distribution. Le "and p, Case (1), When (n + 1) p is an integer Let(n + 1) p= (an integer). In this case the distribution is bi-modal, the wo modal v Thus if n=9 and p = 04, then (n + Dp = 10% 04 Aisttibution is biemodal, the tao modal values being 4 and 4~ 1 = 3. Case (II), Whi })p is not an integer Let (n ea P af: ' ee a js the integral part and fis the fractional part of (1 + 1)p. In this case the ak th ‘vibution has a uni oy, the integral part of (1+ 1p. nique mode at X = kis s amy = 8x06 = 4:8. Hence Mode = 4, the int 48, Forex ple, if n= 7 and p = 06, then (1 + » p=8x06 (egral part of alues being X= kand X=k— 1. which is an integer. Hence, in this case the dig Remark, Th . Let np be a whole number. Then ; > (n+ Ip = np + p= (whole number) + fraction (n+ 1) is not an integer.is case, the binomial distribution is unimodal, the unique mode begin Hence, in this ae (jen integer), then the distribution is unimodal ang the Mean. If np is a whole number (ie. : : sae: i ly. Find the probabil equal, each being np. | ins are tossed simultaneous! ili biased coins Example 14-1, Ten unl aly OF oh ids (ii) Atleast 8 heads (ii) No head @ ae ie * (v) Not more than three —_ (i) At eagle iv) At least on of sae If p denotes the probability of ahead, the p= a= 2. Here n 0 =101f the jer of heads, then by the Binomial probability law, the probability of, denotes the numt a pr) =P(X= Derr =, (YG) "=e, (8) = abate, 1 = 210 _ 105 () Required probability = p(6)= 7934 '"°Cs =fona= 512 [From (*)) (ii) Required probability = P(X 28) = p(8) + p(9) + p(10) Tando heads =! fio, + 19¢, + 19¢ =u Cg + °Cy 10) 4541041 56 7 (From (+)} (iii) Required probability 1 PO) = 7908 °Co =H (From (+) (iv) Required probability = P[At least one head] =P [No head] = 1 - p(0) : =| Tuas tose [From Pag.ig} (») Required probability = P(XS 3) = p(O) + p(1) + p(2) + p(3) 1+10+45+120 176 =a [0+ Cy + 90,4 '¢,] = Leto s+ 120 (i) Required probability = (X > 4) = p(4) + p(5) +... +p(10) =e [PCy + C54 + 10C9] Last part can be conveniently done as follows : Required probability = P(X24)=1-pP (Xs3) u 53 cat =1=[0) + 09+ 90) + 9)]= 1-H = 8 ye: Example 14-2, Define Binomial Distribution, What is the probability of guessing correct a Of the ten answers in a TRUE-FALSE objective test 2 ai Solution. Definition of Binomial Distribution—See Text. In a True-False Obje Probability of guessing an answer correctly is given by : PQ) = PC, px gl0-x= 190, (3) es 1\0 =e, ()" 5 x20,1, *. ia i Hence the required probabityP of guessing correctly at least 6 of the 10 answers! =P) +p (7) +p) + PO) + p(10) 110 =(3)" Dc, 106, 4 ME, + 9¢, 4 10,91 10 m4 [Cy +190, 8C, 4100, st [lox9 =o [eset al "C=", Wx9xg -tal wT a2 1041] Tort (210+ 1204454 194.1] = 286 _ 193 % i 1024 = 512° Example 14:3. A student is to match 1 oS - so war wit tee years 1947, 191 ee historical evens (G : years 194 869, 1 hoe cvents (Gandhi's birt, India's freedom and first an te probability distribution of the numberof me is Sa vit no knowledge of the correct answers, correctly, : (Delhi Univ. B.A. (Econ, Hons.), 2006] TS to the three questions with no knowledge of correct, Solution. Since the student guesses the ansyy answers, We HAVE = Probability of answer : 'Y OF answering any question correctly =#, (which is constant for each question). Let the rv. X denote the number of correct answers obtained by the student. Then, X~B(a, p) withn =3 and p=4 2 => qzl-p p(x) = Probability of guessing x correct answers | = ="C,prqr-*=3¢, (5)* (3) (By Binomial probability law) BAC B-*, x=0,1,2,3. P0) 7 pil) =973C,.2? etisc,at = 228 1 a¢,o0 = A pQ) =373C22' = apy PGB)= a 7C329 = a7 PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF CORRECT ANSWERS ‘The probability distribution of the number of correct { = 0 1 2 3 answers (X) is given in the adjoining Table. pay | 827 | 12e7 | 627 | v27 Example 14:4, Suppose that a Central University has to form a.committee of 5 members front a list of 20 candidates out of whom 12 are teachers and 8 are students. Ife members of the committee are selected at random, what is the probability that the majority ofthe committee mentbers are students ? (Delhi Univ. B.A. (Econ, Hons.), 2009) 255 p= Probability of selecting a student member Solution. In the usual notations we have iad = Probability of selecting teacher member = 79 = § Let X denote the number of students selected inthe committe. Then X ~ Blu ='5, p = 2/5). Hence, by binomial probability distribution, pore n=ptr= (8) GY GY "5 7082345 of) ‘The required probability is given by , ae Pas 3) =p3)+ pe) +P) (3) ey. @)+@) G)-6)+6) (3) 204240432 _ 992 0.3174, 2b [108x945 1643 412? choice examination, there are 20 questions. Each question has four E |! ultiple 4 r mark i ahernatine ny a Sr itand the student must select the one correct answer. Four marks are given e answers fol Or the correct answer and one " te tite forever) wrong ansver. A stident must Secure at eas mark oenumber of tosses of a coin Example 14.6, The one head being 0.875 is @2, @ 3, ii) 4, Solution. Let the required number of tosses of the ainigind 1 that are needed so that the probability of geting 5. [LC.WA . (Intermediate), P ‘in be n, Then 5 i ofa P[At least one head in n tosses of a coin] = 1 - P [ No head in n tosses We want n so that this probability is 0.875, 1 (3) = o.87s => Gi) is the correct answer,ge THCAL DISTRIBUTIONS gxample 147. (a) Find the probability i i : Of getting the sum 7 on ey How many tosses are needed in order th oe ler that the probability i 500% ty in (a) is greater than 0.95. solution. (@ Let p be the probability of getting the sum of 7 i isa ad atardee mete aan n toss of a pair of fair dice. Then 36-6 > a=t-p=G ipaaustve costs = = 36; Favourable cases { (1, 6), 6, 1 a ne ; s (6, 1) (2, 5) (5, 2), 3, et the rv. X denote the number of times 7is obtained in 3 tosses es ona inet ‘ a ‘Then X+B(n=3, p=G):sothat 3 _ (3) (Ly (syor por=n=(F).(s)-() s r=0.1,2.3 i ‘The probability of getting the sum 7 on atleast one of the 3 tosses is given By PX2 Wel - P= y= ! [From (i)] (b) We want to find n so that, 1-pa=0 > 095 = 1-(s) > 095 = (3)! < 005=35 . 6\" ies (§) > 20 = (2 > 20 = nlog (1-2) > log 20 Jog 20 13010 n> iggia = 00m = 1642 3 27 Example 14-8, How many dice must be thrown 50 that there is a better than even chance of obtaining atleast one six? Solution, Let us suppose that the dice is thrown» once in n throws of a dice is given by : p =Probability of at least one six in » tosse8 of adice 1 times. The probability P of obtaining a six at Teast = 1 — Probability of ‘no’ six in n tosses of adice= We want P to be greater than 1/2. ie, i. (J >t 2 4 ie, 05> 083)" ot) 3 4 5 6 paris 04TH __ 03989 030) So 0:83)" 0:83 0.6889 n 24, Henee the dice must be thrownat least 4 By tial, we find thatthe inequality (@) is satisfied when” times, i i te 14.7. : ‘ = biased es — oie population i vegeari $9 that the chance of an individual being om ample 14:9. Assume ti vi rake sample of 10 individuals 10 $6 whether they etarian is b+ Assuming 2 100 investigators €@ i vould you expect 19 TEPOTE that three people or less were are vegetarians, how many Vegetarian 9 Solution, In the usual notations p= Probability that al wehave:7= 10. Bee span indivigual saveselman=2 | ge1-P=2probal . Bene 0c, pan 2 MC, 6) ar ne Gy" shusu? probability Het jn.a sample e 10, three or less people are vegelari “gaye + PO)t PO) Pa eae Mae wc] an | | sg [1+ 10+ 45+ 120] =tbe= or ‘ ent io e 100 investigators. the number of investigators who will ne 4 soo xd = ga 172217 4 w+ ha in fraction.| al eoreTica DISTRIBUTIONS 1441 sxample 1412, (a) Comment onthe folowing: For a binomial distributic nomial distribution, mean = 7 and varie I. fiance = 11, (A binomial variable on 100 tral has 6 as its andar davai Ts vi B.Com, (Hons), 2008) This statement is: (valid, (ii) invalid i ic (iii) cannot say. — Choose the correct alternative. tution. (a) Fora binomial distribution wit (LCWA. (Intermediate), June 1999 So es ribution with parameters m and p. Dividing (ii) by (i), we get q which is impossible, since q being the pr ‘obability, must lic between 0 and 1, Hence, the given statement is wh i Variance = npg = 11 ai) ng. (gy Weare given : X-~ Bon, p), where n= 100 7 : sd.(0)=6 = Variance (6) = 36. Weknow that FX ~ B (np) then the maximum value of variance (X) ism. he 100 Van(X) $ G5 °@ =25- But, we are given Var(X) = 36. Hence, the giv’ s invalid ie., (i) isthe correct answer. Example L413, Four fair coins are tossed. X isthe number ‘of heads that occur. ( Find the probability function of X (i Find the probability distribution of X and (ii) Calculate the mean and standard deviation fk. [Dell Univ. BA. (Econ.Hons.) 1999] Solution. (i) In the usual notations, X ~ B (n, p) withn = 4and 1 : oi 1 pp = Probability of head in tos of fir coin =2 = q=l-p=3 By binomial probability Jaw, the probability function of X, (the number of heads obtained) is given by: pix) = P(X= ="C,prqn* 1c, bY (G46 (3) wal) BiG, i teh Gp Using (, the probabil dsibuion of Xis ven = 0 7 az 1 a Tae, i 7) ex 'Co ex's 16x10 i6**Cs se ees “1% oo past 1 Gif) Mean and s.d. of X- Since X ~B (n=4.0=2) a2 | Variance (0) = 009= 4327 | 3 sd. (0=1. (@?)as follows. ot= Lx p@)- (Mean? 1 Mean =up=4%2 Alter. We can also compute mean and variance Mean = 1x P@) 7 is i der. ae This is left as an exercise to the reat fective bolt ss 110, find (i) the mean 5 (ii) variance 5 fa I Example 14:14. If the probability of 4 06 ee : Ht onal of 400, i . (i vr the distribution of defective bolts ing (ii) moment coefficient of skewness (iv) kurtosis, fo ta Un om ‘Hon 2008 1; Sage Se 09 n= 400, P Solution. Inthe usual notations: 8° have: According to Binomial probability law : x01 =A 09236 (i) Mean = np =4 ao (ii) Variance = npq = 400 x01frequency distribution, we first find the mean of the given frequency distribution by the formula sans FUNDAMENTALS o¢ a A (iii) The moment coefficient of skewness Nish (a=?) _ 08% _ 94 _9.91777=0018 => y=+Vp,=422 : = = 36 = ee 1 : Bi ="hpg = 36 a Voor, ay (iv) Coefficient of kurtosis is given by = 1=6P9_, , 1-6x01x09_ , 046 5 3 ORO 23 4 GE = 3 + 0.013 = 3.013 = Ba =34 Ta 36 ; > Ba 3e0g, Remark. Since f #0, the distribution is not symmetrical. But since itis neatly zero, iti symmetrical. B > 3 implies that the distribution is platykurtic. Mode 142-4, Fitting of Binomial Distribution. Suppose a random experiment consists of n tials «. the conditions of Binomial distribution and suppose this experiment is repeated Netimes’ st hiy frequency of r successes is given by the formula. 5 They NX pOV=NX"C,plrgn-r : r=0,1, 2.0m i TABLE 4. 4) Putting r= 0, 1, 2, .... n we get the expected or theoretical [No.of | Expected or emay frequencies of the Binomial distribution, which are given in the | Successes (r)| Frequaities it yt Table 14-2. 7 wg If p, the probability of success which is constant for each N.C. g*lp trial is known, then the expected frequencies can be obtained NerCygrtp? easily as given in the Table 14:2, However, if p is not known and : if we want to graduate or fit a binomial distribution to a given N.pt ¥= 2 fe/ ¥ and equate it to np, which is the mean of the binomial probability distribution. Hence, pea be estimated by the relation np=¥ = Then q = | ~ p. With these values of p and q, the expected or obtained by using the formulae given in the Table 14-2. x i onl pay (410) theoretical Binomial frequencies can be Example 14-15. (a) 8 coins are tossed at a time, 256 times. Find the expected frequencies of success (getting a head) and tabulate the results obtained. () Also obtain the values of the mean and standard deviation of the theoretical (fitted) distribution Solution. In the usual notations, we are given : P = Probability of success (head) in a single throw Hence, by the Binomial probability law, the probability of r successes in a toss of 8 coins is given by : for pi) ="C,ptgrr=8c, (3)' (3) 2) (3 =8c, (3)’ =a tc, ao) Hence, in N = 256 throws of 8 coins, the frequency of r Successes is : JOVEN. pir) = 256 x7g °C, =8C, 5 r= 0, 1 aes 8. the expected (theoretical) frequencies are as obtained in ‘Thus, Table 14.3, (© For the theoretical distribution (Binomial distribution), Mean=np=8xt=4 9; ee 1.4142 sd = Vapg= [ord = V2 =8, N=256. ofacoin=z => 971-1 rED TABLE 143 : EXPECT! BINOMIAL FREQUENCIES e No, of heads | Expected Frew{HEORETICAL DISTRIBUTIONS pxample 14°16. Fit a binomial distributi "10 the followi : x i ng data : : 28 0 z 3 a Solution. In the usual notations we have: y= 4 2 oe i Itpisthe parameter of the binomial distribution th ee then np = i ip a Of the distribution = = w(*) Fatt Lor esnsa0416 150 Tp ges ng Substituting in (*) we get a and g=1-p=2 The expected binomial probabilities are given by : a upgtrsac, (4) (3) wal) ting x = 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 in vel a ine A + oe ting and 4 in (**), we get the expected binomial probabilities as given in the 4-4: FITTING OF BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION Expected Binomial Frequency = J0)=N. plx) = 150 p62) | : | 29-63 = 30 | 1 | | 59-26 = 59 | 2 | | 4444 = 44 ; | | 3 | 1481 = 15 . | | | 4 | \ 185=2 Hence the fitted binomial distribution is 7 0 1 2 3 4 Total a. 30 59 44 15 2 150 Example 14-17, Six dice are thrown 729 times. How many times do you expect at least three dice to show @ five or six? Solution. Here we are given n=6 and N=729. i it single die be called a success. Then Let the event of getting 5 or 6 in the throw ofa single die be ¢: : gts + 9et-P=3 1p = Probability of success = Ina signte throw of 6 ic, the probaly of geting rsuceses Le geting Sor 6 on r die is given le thro , by the binomial law : ; ayer eae = () &) Bye 8 =Tg Ce pir) ="C,prant=SCr dice show a 5 or 6 is p3) + P4) + PS) + P(6). Hence, in 729 Thus, the probability that a east INTE Tg at leas 3 successes throws of 6 dice each, the required frequent Wx p(3) + pd) +P) + PO : 2729x715 [903% a [a x24 1sx44 6x2 +1 4 6C, XP+ CS X28 1] }] = 160 +60 + 12 + 1= 233,1s the Binomial probability fu given below =P(X=r) +r=0,1, r sses (occurrences of the event), m= € =2-71828 [The base of theorETICAL DISTRIBUTIONS ee 14-21 1. TESrr-1) 2). x 3x25], and ji perivation of (14-10), We shall obtain the limit arte conditions 5 in the limiting form of the binomial probability function (14-1) nye and np=m m =m = palit -)_m ne ee pay and q= 1-2 probability function of Binomial distribution is p'q Tenia " (2) (1-8) mtn n= m=(r=1), { ,_myrrr Tn on “ (1-2) om (4) (1-3 e(a-By (1-8) Taking the limit as n—> eo, the limiting form of Binomial probability function becomes a ln (1-4) x Tim (1-2) ux tim (1-5*) x tim ( 1-2) x tim (1-2) a (10) 0) x00) Tim (=) tim (1 AC) ! =e rae But we know that : i a)" oe0 d li (1+4)'=1 (411) sim (1+2) =| an sim (148) = wl if A is constant independent of n. Substituting these values in (*), we get the limiting form of Binomial probability function as me r! my xemxl= r! £ the Poisson distribution is emt rT! Hence the probability function of em 20,123, pi) = P(X= = 4 stated in (14-10). Remarks. 1. Poisson distrib ation isa discrete probability distribution, since the variable X_can take only integral values 0, 1, 2, -++ © ‘TABLE 145: POISSON PROBABILITIES 2 Putti 01,23 in (14:10), we obtain the| No. of Sucts Preibiay . Putting r = 0, 1, 2, & hich are. (r) PO Probabilities of 0, 1, 2, 3, +. successes respectively, wht ae Riven in the Table 14:5. are given 0 ca __ The values of e® for some selected valte® of a in Table V in the Appendix at the end of the DOO" 1 3. Total probability is 1. ; a 5 on EE em Foe ZL piyzememen +31 Bait 5 2a | i =em [iemegitai*FUNDAME 14:22 [By law of indices] semxemae NEE [= e 4, If we know m, all the probabilities of the isson distribution. the parameter of the Poisson dis! ; _ cr 5, We obtained above the Poisson distribution a8 & limiting case of the Binomial dstipy we give the general model underlying Poisson distribution. - “Let us consider the random experiment with the following conditions : iit ie, 00 of an event) in the small time interval (, The probability of success (i.e., ovcurrence 0 as One Pet directly proportional to the magnitude of the interval, a) ii) The probability of getting more than one successes in this time interval is very small, (ii) The probability of any particular success inthe time interval (& ¢+ dis independe of ey time 1 and also of all previous successes. it has been established that the probability of r successes in time ¢ Poisson distribution can be obtained, m ish Under the above conditions, of magnitude ris given by emt (mt)" = which is the probability function of the Poisson distribution with parameter mr, 0,1, 2,3, ... P= ‘lity or Importance of Poisson Distribution. The conditions under which Pois distribution is obtained as a limiting case of the Binomial distribution and also the conditions fori general model underlying Poisson distribution [c,f. remark 5] suggest that Poisson distribution canbe wel to explain the behaviour of the discrete random variables where the probability of occurrence of the events ery small and the total number of possible cases is sufficiently large. As such Poisson distribution hs ‘ion in a variety of fields such as Queuing Theory (waiting time problems), Insuarc | ‘conomics and Industry. Most of the Temporal Distributions (dealing wid equal intervals of time) and the Spatial Distributions (dealing i intervals of equal length along a straight line) follow the Posst Probability Law. We give below some practical situations where Poisson distribution can be used: per minut) (® The number of telephone calls arriving at a telephone switch board in unit time (say, (ii) The number of customers arriving at the super market ; say per hour. : (ii) The number of defects per unit of manufactured product [This is done for the construction of control chart for number of defects (c) in Industrial Quality Control]. ) To count the number of radio-active disintegrations of a radio-active element per uni (Physics). (») To count the number of bacteria per unit (Biology), fi (vi) The number of defective materi ji i b te man material say, pins, blades etc. in a packing manufactured i eae i ides reported in a particular day or the number of causalities (PERO fe to a rare disease such as heart attack or cancer or snake bite in a year. i) The number of accidents taking place per day on a busy road. (&) The number of typographii : h phical err ii i Be Seana are ‘ors per page in a typed material or the numDCl (, i), Gv), (Vid) and (vii ini ae eel (viii) are examples of temporal distributions and the remaining #1 64 onericAL DISTRIBUTIONS 1 14:23 492 Constants of Poisson Distribution meng mtenm Po 7m) FPO, 37 4 ee, 0 = a + ! 1 me™ temen | mie" mem meen men : 2! are | Rea eme™ xe" : sen 3 =me ‘ ° (Using (14.12)] 3 ae 3 he 32 me 2 ame -™*M= me 3 r o - mien men ae om =m G: OSL ve (14-13) 4 71 a ae Variance = & 1? p(r)—[Zrp(r Pe =P? ptr) - (mean)? =LP pir)-m? o : TP ply) sme ee En, = -m 3 ai =me [ 142m “chev ] nm 2 =me [[remegiegie f+ fe 2a Au }] : mm amen [{1+m+ +5 1 nem a tmp lem tgp t en ‘ete met] =me™.e™(L+m)=am(l +m)e° sme" [ [Using (14-12)] =m(1 +m) Substituting in (*) we get Variance = m(1 +1) — i? = m+n? =m? (14-14) Hence for the Poisson distribution with parameter m, we have Mean = Variance = m 21415) ie, mean and variance are equal, each being equal 10 the paramere". Other Constants : The moments (about ‘mean) of the Poisson distribution are : Hy =0 pt = Variance = : yy =m § By s m+ 3m? Hence, B= and n ++(14-16) 1 = = e =B.-3= + (14:17) a 8,9 47% fr>3 and 90. : limiting cas .e of Binomial distribution, we may obtain the constants of the ne cata distribution by taking np = mt and p —> 0: gusta Remarks 1. As 1 2. Since Poisson distribution is the Poisson distribution from those © ‘quations (14-2) to (14:7). For example, by = lim npq=lim ap ae ; ug = Tim npg { 1+3090"-? oi 6x1x0]= pean segarcten CE OBS lim npq(q~p)=m-1 (1-0) =m ln ne } = im, npg (1+ 3mpq- 6pq] =m. 1 [1+3m1—FUNDAMENTALS og a 14:24 126pq geo gO Ll, pe tim [3+ OP] 34 bth | B, = lim “hog mk noe Pq mx oos Aa 0. This means that Poisson disp: 14-16) we observe that Y) > 0. mn distrib os the a of the parameter m increases, 7; decreases and thy ‘a hy particular as m —> 2 (large values of m), Yj > 0 and cone Wie 3, Since py = m > 0, fror positively skewed distribution. reduced for increasing values of m. In distribution tends to be symmetrical for large ™. ) 14:3. Mode of Poisson Distribution : The Poisson distribution has mode at X =r, “ itp@>per-1) and PO> PHD: Case (i). When m is an integer. If m is an integer, equal to k, (say), then the Poisson distribution sb modal, the two modes being atthe points X = kand X= k= 1- oo Case (i), When m is not an integer. If m is not an integer, then the distribution is unimoda unique modal value being the integral part of m. For example, if m= 5:6, then mode is 5, the integra pate 56. Example 14:18. Comment on the follow Fora Poisson distribution, Mean = 8 and Variance Solution. The given statement is wrong, since for a Poisson distribution mean and variance are equ, Example 14:19. If the standard deviation of a Poisson variable X is 12, then the probability thar Xs @e (ii)e? (ili) 1-€ (iv) none of these. [LC.W.A. (Intermediate) June 200) Solution, Let X ~ P(X). We know that for Poisson distribution with parameter 2, 2 Variance =2=(V2)° = [. sd.=V2 Given] cS ee oo ) ‘The Probability that X is strictly positive is given by : P(X>0) =1-P(X=0)= 1-7 [From (*)] b Hence, (iv) is the correct answer. i Example 14:20, Berween the hours 2 P.M. and 4 P.M, the average number of phone calls per mine coming into the switch board of a company is 2-35. Find the probability that during one particular mitts there will be at most 2 phone calls. [Given e235 = 0.095374) Solution. If the random variable X denotes the number of telephone calls per minute, then X wil follow Poisson distribution with parameter m = 2-35 and probability function : ep attamt_ €238x235)1 0) Pose = xG35y" b re012. g ‘The probability that during one particular minute there will be at most 2 phone calls is given bY * Fi I} P(X S2) POX = 0)+ P= 1) + P= 2)= 0-285 (14205+235) ren a = 0095374 x (1 + 2:35 + 2-76125) = 0.095374 x 611125 = 058285 ample 14:21. It is known from past experie ir i the or __ Example | that are On i Inari azides per month Find ih probabty tat ine gies year there wl bss \ssume Poisson distribution. (e~* = 0-0183) ee a Solution. In the usual notations we are gi the nut 5 rs given m= 4, i denotes. accidents in the plant per month, then by Poisson Tosbabiien| pe random ae xe«one DISTRIBUTIONS iL 14-25 fa AO se required probability that there will boyy nd Si P(X <4) = P(X=0) + XS D+PoC=2) snc, meee 4 [i +4488) | tr | =e-4 (+4484 1067] Fen) =e-4x 23.67 = 0.0183 % 23-67 = 0.4332, Ne 14:22. If 5% of th x Esai nd the probakiins gucci bulbs manafactared by acdc defect a REL distribution 10. Pp ility that ina sample of 100 bulbs pany are defective, (i) none is defective, ‘. (i) 5 bulbs will be defective. (Given Solution. Here we are given : 100, p= Probability of a defective bulb = 5% =0-05 Since p is small and 1 is large, we may appre ven distributi isson distributi see, th parameter mothe Poisson dsributign i Be stbution by Poison distribution. (n=ws 100x005 =5 Let the random variable X denote thes probability law), er of defective bulbs in a sample of 100. Then (by Poisson PX =n re) () The probability that none of the bulbs is defective is given by P(X =0) =e-5=0.007 {From (*)) (ii) The probability of 5 defective bulbs is given by : 5x55 P(X =5) ox Example 14-23. A manufacturer of blades knows that 5% of his product is defective. If he sells blades inboxes of 100, and guarantees that not more than 10 blades will be defective, what is the probability (approximately) that a box will fail to meet the guaranteed quality ? Solution. p = Probability of a defective blade = 5% = 0.05. notations we are given n = 100. Since the probability of a defective blade is small, we may use Poisson distribution. In the: usual Hence m =np = 100x005 =5 If the random variable X denotes the number of defective blades in a box of 100, then (by Poisson probability law), Pen = rt A box. will fail to meet the guaranteed quality if the number of defectives in it is more than 10, Hence the required probability is : P(X> 10) = ; ing out optical lenses, there is @ small chance 1/500 for any one azole pros ce ta ans of 10, Use Poison dstrbuton to calculate i 0 be defective.FUNDAMEN init defective, one defective, two defective, three 4. niin eon are given hate #8? = 09802," ‘approximate number of pace. co ‘we are given: N=20000 3 = 10 and respectively ina consignment of 20 Solution. In the usual notations 1 pe Probability of a defective optical lense = 505 1 1 m =np=10 X 500 002 f a e . ive optical lenses in a packet of 1p et denote the number of defective optical ‘en: Packet of j Poiston th a potal) of rdefective lenses in a packet is given by : 0. oer (9.92)" _ 09802 x (002) " Pika) ope Hence in a consignment of 20,000 packets the frequency (number) of packets containing Ae Tenses is - e000 x 09802 x (002) ¢ Ce cammmes ) Putting r=0,1,2 and 3in(*), we get respectively No. of packets containing no defective Jens = 20000 x 0-9802 = 19604 No, of packets containing 1 defective lens is = 20000 09802 (00%) = 19604 x 0.02 = 392-08 = 392 No. of packets containing 2 defective lenses is = 2000009802 (002)? 92-08 002 3.9208 = 4 No. of packets containing 3 defective lenses is 3 34 = 2amoox 09802 002)? _ 3920800 _ 9.996138 =0, since the number of packets cannot be in fraction. Hence, the number of packets containing 0, 1, 2, and 3 defective lenses is respectively 19604, 392,40. Example 1425. A car hire firm has two cars which it hires out day by day. The number of demandsj_ a car on each day is distributed as a Poisson variate with mean 1-5, Calculate the proportion of days ot which (@ Neither car is used (ii) Some demand is refused. Solution. Let the random variable X denote the number of demands for a car on any day. Then follows Poisson distribution with parameter m = 1-5. P(X =1) = Probability of r demands for a car on any day. 15 (15)° tt) ri _ (Neither car will be used, if there is no demand for any car. Hence the required proportion of dys which no car is used is given by [From (**)]) P(X=0) =e7!5= Antilog [-1-5 logige] = Antilog [-1-5 logo 2-718] = Antilog [-1-5 x 04343] = Antilog [0.65145] = Antilog [1 - 34855 ] = 0-2231 (ii) Since the firm has only two cars, some demand wi i wT : A sf demands pet greater than 2, Hence, the required proportion is given by: z Pereincd ie PK >2) =1-PXS2)=1-[ PX =0) + PX = 1) +P =D] 225 g [ els4 V5eH5 Let] eo -e's| sae =1-02231 (1415 +1.125) =1-080874 = 0.19126,CAL DISTRIBUTIONS, pxample 14-26. Air Corporaui et ion having had j ike the next decade "incr pt’ had just 2 air i wants 10 mal cade “aircrash-free” -aircrashes during its first fifty years of existence wobbly afte Corporation meeting tele qiswming thatthe same ved wil ona, ha oo Solution. Let the rv. X denote the n 3 {LCW.A. (Intermediate), Dee. 1 pieCorporation. Then, We are given x Pan ‘crashes during the first 50 years of existence of the d=np=2 . * ape be0 ao Let ¥ denote the number of air crash pate 3= 004 i) ; ishes oF the Corporation during the next ny = 10 years. Then : ~ PO), where W= ny. p=10%004=04 PO =) M4 aye a ! 12012300 ‘The corporation will meet the tarpet if there is probability is given by 5 ‘io aircrach during, the next 10 years. Hence, the required PO = 0) 9 4 Example 14:27. The management of dfects on records appears to follow a Pi (i) Whas is 0.0703 {From (i) covered that the number of O4 if 0 photograph recard compa ‘oisson distribution with a mea ¢ probability that a record selected at random 4) se three defects? ent sets a policy that all photograph recor yrers must not have any POV CoML Of its records production wi f le for sales because of oo fe OTS, 0° 4 = 6703, [Deth: Unis, B.Com. (Hon: Solution. Let the rv. X denote the numbe model with mean m = 0-4, we have (External), 2007| po) = PN = nse * (O4yirt (i Required probability = p( (ii) The photo; ords will not be made avails! least one defect and the required probability is given by PIX 21) =1- PX -p)=l-e Hence 32-97% = 33% of its photographic record produ because of defects. Example 14-28. A manager accepts the work submitted by his typist the work. The typist has to type on an average 20 letters per day of abo: of her making a mistake (i ifless than 1% of the letters submitted by her are rejected + (i) fon 90% days, all the work submited by her is accepted, | [As the probability of making a mistake is small, you may use Poisson distribution. Take ¢ = 2-72), kes per letter (X) follows Poisson distribution with even if it contains at a will not be made available for sales ly when there is no mistake in 00 words each. Find the chance Solution. We are given that the number of mistat Parameter m = np where n= Number of words per lette p_=Probability of making mi stake 200, intyping a word; m=np=200p cone aed 2 ply = pete n= Ptr mistakes ina Teed =") BAe eee) _ From (#* (0) = Probability of making nO 1 ok ea ( If less than 1% of the letters submitted by the typist are rejected, then more than 99% of the letters less than e accepted, This implies that the probability of ‘making no mistake in a leter is at least 99%, . This> 1428 FUNDAMENTA| - gm3099 = et2099 = © ~ 200p log (2-72) 2 log 0.99 wpe: Jog 0:99. T.9956__ _ = 1 +0.9951 2.0044 6 00005 = P Scaitiog 373 = “Bx04046~ 8692 = ~8692: 06 (ii) Since the typist types accepted if there is not a sing! distribution, 200 words each, a n an average 20 letters per day of ach, the days ae mistake in any one of the m = 20 x 200 = 4000 wor meh (0) = P[No mistake in a day's work] = e-* where p in the probability of making a mistake in a word, We yan ie where 2 = my.p = 4000 p, a ist i i J) = 0:90 PLAll the work submitted by the typist in a day is accepted] = [No mistake in a day's work] = 0-90 e*=090 > 20007 =0.90 = — 4000p log 2-77 = log 090 P=TA000 log 27 > => (@) The mean and variance of the distribution. (b) P(X=0), (Delhi Univ. B.Com (Hons.), 1993 3 CA, (Foundation, Ny, iF Solution, Let X be a random variable following Poisson distribution with parameter p, Tha probability function is given by : : PK = fF 20,12... Putting r= 1 and 2 in (i) we get respectively : nem P= D =men and P= 2) = We are given that : PX =1) = P(X =2) => mem ee 2=m [Cancelling m e-" on both (@) Since the mean and variance of a Poisson distribution with Parameter are equal, each being equllt m, we get : ‘Mean = Variance =m =2, (6) Putting r=0 in @) we get, P(x =0) =e em? 0! Sema? = Antilog [-2 logig e] = Antilog [-2 logy 2-718] = Antilog [2 x 0-4343] = Antilog [~ 0:8686] = Antilog [ia3i4] 3 = 01353 Example 1430. IX is a Poisson variable such that PUC= 2) =9P(X = 4)+90 POK=6), find the mean and variance of X. [Deli Univ. B.Com. (Hons.), 2008; C.A. PEE! Solution, LetX be a Poisson variable with parameter, Then eee e™m" . Bear na reno 0 Weare given: PX =2) =9 PX = 4) +90PX=6)HeoReTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS 14-29 ema ge. mt eo", | ae i Fy +90 ee Bare | | he 8! [From (*)) = 2 Ea j 3 XIKT + OXSRaNIRIRT [Dividing both sides by ™ 7] es 1 =3n24at ' 4 > 4=3mtem’ => mb +3m@-4=0 0) (##) is aquadratic equation in m?, me 232A) _ 325 Txt P40) ut m? cannot be negative, Therefore, n? = m= m>0) For the Poisson distribution, mean and variance are equal Mean = E(X)=m=1 and Var (X)= m= 1. Example 14°31. Assuming that one in 80 births is a casi i ili 4 7 is .¢ of twins, calculate the probabili of 2or more sets of twins on a day when 30 births occur. Compare the scouts obtained by using a ( the Binomial distribution and __(ii) Poisson approximation. Solution. (i) Using Binomial distribution ; n= 30 p= probability of twin births = y= 0-0125 > p= 09875 IfX denotes the number of twin births on a day, then P(X = 1) = 30C, (0-0125). (0-9875) 7-7 Probability of two or more sets of twins on a day is given by : P(X 22) = 1- P(X <2)= 1 - (PR =)) + PK = VI wa) P(X=0) = (0-9875)? P(X = 1) =3C, x (0.9875) x (0-0125) = Antilog (30 logo 0-9875) = Antilog [log 30 + 29 log 0:9875 + log 0.0125 ] = Antilog [30 x 1-9945} = Antilog [ 1-4771 +29 x 1.9945 + 2,0969 ] = Antilog [-30 + 29-8350] = Antilog (1.4771 + 1-8405 + 2.0969] = Antilog {- 0-1650] [. 29x 1.9945 = 29(-1 + 0.9945) 29 x (-0.0055) = 1.8350] = 0-6839 0s Antilog (1/8350) = — 0.1595 = 1-8405 ] = Antilog (1-4145] = 02597 Substituting in (*), we get Required Probability (ii) Using Poisson approximation: —" By Poission probability law, = 0.9436 = 0.0564 np = 03750 = 1-0-6839 - 02597 p=00125, P(X [PK = 0) + P= D] 0.315 [1 +0375] = want to fit 14:34, Fitting of Poisson Disteibuli™ eee ution, we compute the mean X OF 6 7 2X. Onee m @oisson) distribution, Le.» We RF rmqula being distribution can be obtained, the gen exmxm! 5 p20,1,2)3 poe PRE A= r! then the expecte' = [2-0 +0375 ¢ -775] 9450 = 0-055. o Required probability =l- =l-e€ Poisson distribution to a given frequency eibution and rake it equal to the mean ofthe fitted ve known, the various probabilities of the Poisson +e(14:18) 44 or theoretical frequencies of the Poisson __ If W is the total observed frequency» distribution are given by NXP (r)-14-30 FUNDAMENTAL : Sagan ae OF Expected frequencies can be very conveniently computed as explained in the Table 146 AM TABLE 14-6 ; EXPECTED POISSON FREQUENCIES o Value of Variable Probability Expected 7, a pP Frequencies Poa o 40) = Noy Sng 1 p(1) = me-" = mp0) LQ) =m Np(oy eS me" am, m 0) 2 pQ)= ‘me (I) fQ2) =F Noy om 52 Al) m n aoe 3 re 5 72) S28) = Noa, e m n 4 = 4 03) S14) =" npg “65 Example 14:32. Fit a Poisson distribution to the following data and caleulaye the they > frequencies. ore x 0 J 2 3 7 fe 123 59 i“ a 1 Solution, - 0 1 2 3 4 s Dy ihe 123 59 14 3 1 Zs =200 Bos fx 0 59 28 9 4 |Esx=100 ‘Thus, the mean (m1 ) of the theoretical (Poisson) distribution is m= ¥ = 0-5, By Poisson probily law, the theoretical frequencies are given by : fo = Np(e) = 200 #7=0,1,2,3,.. SO) =N pO) = 200 x e-" = 200 x e5 = 200 x 0-6065 = 1213. TABLE 14-7: COMPUTATION OF EXPECTED FREQUENCIES iz Expected Poisson Frequencies N.p(x) 0 Np(0) = 121-3 =121 1 NpQ)=N pO) xm = 1213K05 = 6065 = 61 2 NpQ)=Npl) xF = PSXOS _ 15.5195 =1S 3 Np)=NpQ) x5 = 1S325KOS _ 9.559 8 4 Np) =Np(a)x7 = 252X085 _9.39 = 08 Total 200. Example 14-33. A systematic sample of 100 pages was taken from the Concise Oxford Dictionan) the observed frequency distribution of foreign words per page was found to be as follows + No. of foreign words per page (X): 0. 1 2 3 4 Frequency a : 48 27 12 7 4 Calculate the expected frequencies using Poisson distribution. Also compute she mean and °° fitted distribution. digolution. re 14:31 FuEL TABLE 148 FITTING ye “iB ss POISSON DISTRIBUTION If the above distribution 2 f a gistribution, then the rane Parma by : ; a in) of Poisson ey 8 Poisson] 4 o ven by ™ =X = 0:99 and by poi ‘sbution is e 5 frequency (number) of pages contaiy nin iy law, the] 3 2 a given by = ner reign words is - j %6 4 4 16 5 1 5 6 1 6 FO) = NPO) = NPs 1) = 100 x=? G99)- tee ae? Putting r= 0, 1,2, ...,6, we Bet the expected f 0) =N.P(0)= 100% e-099. 7 = 100 x Antilog [-0.9 ‘quencies of Poisson distribution, i. 100 Antilog [-0.99 logis e] X logig 2-718] = 100 x Antilog [- 0.99 x 0.4343} = 100 x Antilog (0.429957 '] = 100 x Antilog [1- = 10003716 = 3716 ntilog [1-570043} 1) = f0)=37:16x099 = FD=T AO=3716 099 = 36-7884 5 f2)=" 1) = 36-7884 x 0.495 = 1821 IB) =F. fl2)= 1821x033 =60093 fd . a (3) = 6.0093 x 02475 = 1.4873 m JS) =F M4) = 148730198 =02985 5 fO)=Ff5)=02945x0165 = 0.0486 Hence the theoretical (expected) frequencies of the Poisson distribution are : x I 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Expected frequencies 37-16 36-79 18:21 601 1-49 029 0.05 (Rounded) : 31 37 18 6 2 0 0 Since, for Poisson distribution, mean and variance are equal, the mean and variance of theoretical (fitted) distribution are given by : =¥=099. Mean = Variance =14-4, NORMAL DISTRIBUTION The distributions discussed so far, viz., Binomial distribution and Poi on distribution, ay iserete rt re dig probability distributions, since the variables under study were diserete random variables, Now we cea the discussion to continuous probability distributions which arise when the underlying Variable ie continuous one, a Normal probability distribution or commonly © X important continuous theoretical distributions in Sta . Most of the data relating to econ business statistics or even in social and physical sciences conform to this distribution, ‘The normal distribution wa n De-Moivre ; 1733 who obtained the mathemat distribution while dealing with hee) ia the game of chance. Normal Gaussian distribution (Gaussian Lay of Ene after Karl Friedrich Gauss (1777-1855) who used this distribution to describe the theory of accidental oe of measurements involved in th oday, normal probability moda is one of the most important probability models in s 7 Probability model 14-41. Equation of Normal Prol it t riable folloy quatio a ly Curve. If X is a continuous random varia ing normal probability distribution with mean jt and standard deviation , then its probabilit pee y eo (p.d.f) is given by / : a : led the normal distribution is one of the mos ‘omic ang eo(1419) or (14:19) where m and ¢ are the constants given by : hay + Vor =25066, "and €= 271828 [The base of the system of Natural logarithms]egoneTt AL DISTRIBUTIONS remark The mean 1 and standard devia 4442. Standard Normal Distrity iation oa agaanpand standard deviation 6, then re ution, If X is : the random gy andom variable following normal distribution with z =X=BQ)_xX-n iable Z defined as follows : aaa kG 4 icaled the standard normal variate (SNV.). We hav --e(1420) V.). Xu B@ = (X=H) 1 ( ° Ca E(cX) = cE(X)] 7 =G [20-200] =4 [un] =0 Vert) =v (4) L @ =Var |*> gu Var (Xp) [+ Var (eX) = c? Var (X)] 1. =—5" Var (X) {-.» Variance is independent of change of origin] Var ( sheds ‘Therefore, the standard normal variate (S.N.V.) Z has mean 0 and standard deviation 1. Hence the probability density function (p.d,f) of S.N.V. Zis given by : «=F OT -wczce + (14-21) [Takingx=z, #=0 and o=1in(14-19)] This gives the height (ordinate) of standard normal curve at the point z. Remarks 1. In practice we should not bother about the complex form of the function 9(z). Standard tables are available for the values of the ordinates (2) for different values of z at interval of 0-01. [Table VE(q), in the Appendix.] 2. A standard normal variable Z is denoted by Z~ N(O, 1). 3. From (14-21), we observe that the values of ‘9(2) are the same for positive as well as negative values of zie, O(-2 = O(2). Hence, the standard normal probability curve is symmetric about the line z=0. 4. Why do we need Standard Normal distribution ? A normal distribution is characterized by (Wo ee eae ane it anyw : era a oe te spread of its bell shape curve along the x-axis. (ii) the standard ae . ae the areas, say, P(a SX.$ 6) under any normal probability enna ‘, eeneed 10 sentrct ‘an infinite number of Ce ior Se ec ts valies Ot arte We nee cally impossible In practi oT tae aormal probability Give Hse 22 QC give and then construct the table for the under jon can be converted into standard normal by rescaling the onal distribution axis, 2BY normal dis , ed only one table of areas under standard normal distibation ‘with mean 0 and SD |. Consequenty wad SD 6, this table can be used for obtaining the urve. Thus, for any normal distribution ag the z-axis Table VI atthe end of the book eas under standard normal curve for @ most any interval tives the areas under standard normal Curve: ib inom ori N 1443. Relation between Binomial 202 joing conions ofthe binomial probability distribution WME i, nom (8 n, the mumber of tials is a ly (i Neither p nor gis very Sl ves We know that for a binomial variale 1 Distributions. Normal distibuton is a imiting ease E(X)=np and) Var (X)=npq14:38 ae De-Moi ed that under the above two conditions, the distribution of standard Bing, oivre prov‘ : _X- EO) X=mb, ce ie pq andard Normal variate as given in (420 ten ae 1/2), then the normal approximation is sur iy equal (ke, p is nearly x . Te ad ge reset n, However, when p and q are nol equal, i, when p orgs small ea even for small valu ds in this case the convergence is slow. By ne Binomial distribution ends icc income that if p and g ae nt eta din the case when pand g are neatly eqae ee approximation tthe pte for ieeasing values of ands ag normal limiting case as n> «. a itd, Relation between Poisson and Normal Distributions. 1X i @ random varie ay, Poisson distribution with parameter m, then F(X)=Mean=m and Var (X)=0?=m X-B) jisson variate becomes + ‘Thus standard Poi e Te tends to the distribution of st to normal distribution but then for Binomial distribu .d to the value of n require Binomial distribution is to be a Standard Normal Variate if m — », ‘Thus, Normal Ithas been proved that this variate t indard Normal z case of Poisson distribution as the parameter m ~ ce distribution may also be regarded as a limiting c 14-4:5, Properties of Normal Distribution. The normal probability curve with mean Hand standag deviation G is given by 1 (e-pyiao po)= .€ yee ces “0 V2n.o ‘The standard normal probability curve is given by the equation : ; “22 g@=k o, -wczce in It has the following properties : 1. The graph of p(2) is the famous bell shaped curve as shown NORMAL PROBABILITY CURVE in the Fig. 14-1. The top of the bell is directly above the mean (1). rc) 2. The curve is symmetrical about the line X = pt, (Z = 0), ie.., it has the same shape on either side of the line X = yt (or Z= 0). This is because the equation of the curve @ (z) remains unchanged if we change z to ~ z. 3. Since the distribution is symmetrical, mean, median and aot mode coincide. Thus, Fig. 141 Mean = Median = Mode = pt 4, Since Mean = Median = 11, the ordinate at X = jt, (Z= 0) divides the whole area it al pi 1 ; =H Z= nto two equi Further, since total area under normal probability curve is 1, the avea to the right of the ordinate a WEL 1 eee seth ate under norma probability curves 1, the area to the right ofthe orn 5. Also, by virtue of symmetry, the quartiles are equidistant from median (1), ke ) Qs-Md =Md-0, = 0,402 2Md= 24 ae 6. Since the distribution is symmetrical, the moment coefficient of skewness is given by : B, =0 => n=0 7. The coefficient of kurtosis is given by : B, =3 > h=0 " 8.No portion ofthe curve lies below the x-axis, since p(x) boing the probability can never be 9. Theoretically, the range of the distribution is from oo to eo, But practically, Range = 69:cricAL. DISTRIBUTIONS as * increases numerically (i.e, on either gi ei probability occurring at x= 4, indie eet x at [p02 Jae =! Vix 2.6 14:39 =U], the value of i en (x) decreases rapidly, the Figures 14-1(@), 14:1(6) and 14-1(¢) gi a values of 6 respectively. give normal probability curves with moderate, large and small Moderate o . ‘Smaller o ager AWN . . ce Fig. 14-1(a) Fig. 1416) Fig. 14-1(0) 11. Distribution is unimodal, the only mode occurring at X = 1. 12. Since the distribution is symmetrical, all moments of odd order about the mean are zero, Thus ee =0;((n=0,1,2,...) w+ (14-26) ie, Br = Bs = Bs= «++ (14:26a) 13, The moments (about mean) of even order are given by + Hon = 1.3.5... (2n-1) 0", (n= 1,2,3...) ++ (14:27) Putting n = Land 2, we get by =e? and fly=1304=30% woe (14:28) by? y ='X-0 and s+ (14-280) B= a5 (axis is i.e, for numerically large value of X (on either side of the Tine 14, X-axis is an asymptote to the curve, j a a a (X=), the curve becomes parallel to the X-axis and is sup i mal variates is also a normal variate. If X, vs diq and standard deviations 01, G2, Xo, oy Xq are 15. A linear combination of independent no! usa, independent normal variates with means Hh, Ha then their linear combination wo (14-29) a _ \ here a, ay, yay are constants sal a normal ari with Neen ea raat Be a 2 oper oe rat ho. a,= 1 in (14:29) then oie yne tweens +02 ite wil and Variance = 41 In particular, if we take a1 = 42> “Ky 4.Xy4 ... +X, isa normal varia $0,232" 14-296) sus eso a normal variate: Tia sown a he Re. ite i] vari eZ Thus, the sum of independent normal Os ipuion us, : mal distri eae Productive or Additive Property’ of te NO then we ave fom 425) an (14 29a) It apa land a= 44 z jance 0\2 + 82» 2114-296 We take ay = a) = 1 ant fs ariate with mean ply + 2! cand variance OV ) X+Xpisa norma