Pakistan Social Sciences Review P-ISSN 2664-0422

April-June 2022, Vol. 6, No. 2 [146-156] O-ISSN 2664-0430

RESEARCH PAPER
Electoral Trends and Political Dynamics of Punjab Province
Abstract:The Yawar Hayat Shah* 1 Gulshan Majeed2
electoral process in
Pakistan, particularly 1. PhD Scholar Political Science, Department of Political Science, University of the
in Punjab, is crucial
for democratic Punjab, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan
governance. 2. Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab,
Transparency and Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan
consistency are http://doi.org/10.35484/pssr.2022(6-II)14
essential for political DOI
development. PAPER INFO ABSTRACT
Factors like party Received:
affiliation, local
The electoral process is an integral part of a democratic system.
groupings, caste, February 12, 2022 It is the legitimate and constitutional way of coming into power
biradari, ideology, Accepted: and governing the state. Consistency in the process of elections
and religious April 05, 2022
identities significantly Online:
and a transparent electoral process strengthens the overall
influence voting political development in the state. The electoral system of
behavior in Punjab. April 14, 2022 Pakistan encompasses multiple factors including identity, party
Keywords:
Biradari,
affiliation, local grouping, and provincial-based issues. Punjab
Electoral Trends, has a vital role in the overall political dynamics of Pakistan. In
Local Politics, this context, this paper entails a quantitative and qualitative
Punjab, study of the main electoral trends of Punjab. It is being observed
Voting Behavior
that political party-based association, local groupings, factors of
*Corresponding
caste, biradari, ideology, and religious identities are the main
Author
yawarhayatshah@ya
contributing factors in defining the voting behavior and
hoo.com constituency trend in Punjab.
1:Punjab is a Introduction 2:How people
really important vote in Punjab
province in is influenced by
Pakistan because Punjab being the largest province in terms of population has a predominant a bunch of
it has a lot of position on the political chessboard of Pakistan. In terms of parliamentary numbers, things like how
people. It has a they feel, who
big say in the
Punjab has 148 seats in the national assembly of Pakistan. In addition, under the they know, how
national women quota, Punjab has 35 seats (www.na.gov.pk, n.d.).For decades the electoral much money
government, with demography of Punjab is symbolic that the one who rules Punjab dominates in the they have, and
148 seats in the what's going on
national assembly, center as well. Elections trends across Pakistan vary in terms of voting behavior and politically.
plus 35 more the culture of participation in politics. Voting behavior and electoral choices are a When
seats reserved for combination of psychological, sociological, socio-economic, and political realities of politicians try to
women. In politics, get people to
if you can win the area. Political mobilization and electoral campaigns predetermine the vote for them, it
Punjab, you often participatory culture of the society. Therefore, electoral trends have a profound affects how
end up winning impact on the overall democratic culture of the state. Electoral contestations in Punjab many people
control of the actually go out
whole country. are mainly derived from multifaceted factors including party affiliations, local and vote. All of
3:In Punjab, groupings, caste, sectarian division, family ties, and personality-specific support. this impacts
how democratic
elections are about
Literature Review the country
a lot of different
feels.
things: which party
people support, In this context, Hassan Javid has given a comprehensive historical description
who they know
locally, what their of the political elite in Punjab and their role in electoral politics. The ruling land-
family background owned elite in rural Punjab remained dominant on the political structure of Punjab in
is, their religion, the pre-Partition as well as in the post-partition phase. Though the colonial
and if they like a
specific leader.
These factors all
mix together to
decide who wins.
 Pakistan Social Sciences Review (PSSR) April-June, 2022 Volume 6, Issue 2

dependence on local land-owning elites were different as compared to Mughal and

Sikh era due to their modern bureaucratic and governance transformation in the sub-
continent but eventually they relied on land-holders and appointed them as revenue
collectors which reflect the relationship between local influencers and the British in
the sub-continent. The economic and social status of the landed elite in Punjab always
has a powerful position in the local, provincial, and the general elections. Most of the
candidates who have a proportionate level of land holdings and local influence
dominate the electoral politics. This trend of influencer land-holders and their
dominant role in politics continued in Punjab even after the independence of
Pakistan. For instance, when Ayub Khan enacted the system of Basic democracies and
banned the political parties, it was the landed class that contributed to providing
legitimacy to the authoritarian regime. This trend remained vital in the electoral
politics of Punjab later on as well. Furthermore, the writer has endorsed the fact that
Birdarism is one of the main mobilization forces in the politics of rural Punjab (Javid,
2012, pp. 2-32).

Moreover, Dr. Mughees Ahmed has explained the voting trends of rural and
urban Punjab in which local political culture dominates the voting behavior. In this
context, biradaries and caste clusters are vital sources for the candidates to get
support. The writer has provided a detailed description that how the notion of
cultivators vs non-cultivators and later rural and urban division have colonial roots.
Under the Punjab Alienation Land Act of 1901, the non-cultivators (Kammi) were
proscribed from buying any cultivated land. In addition, under British Raj, the
agriculturist and landowners based on Biradari and clans were more empowered in
terms of government jobs and socio-political status. For this reason, this trend
remained dominant in the politics of Punjab even after independence. The writer has
further explained the political dynamics of constituencies in Faisalabad which
provides an insight into the politics of central Punjab. The Biradari factor dominated
the voting in the general elections from 1977-2002 in the rural areas as compared to
urban areas signifying that the landowner Biradari remained popular within their
constituencies as 74 percent of the people voted on the basis of Biradari factor. Main
stream political parties also gave tickets to the candidates based on Biradari and clan
elements.

Besides this, Andrew R. Wilder has analyzed the main electoral trends in
Punjab by comparing the political patterns in the 1993 and 1998 general elections.
Wilder took the data of polling stations to identify the main trends that include
difference of male and female population voting behavior, class difference, the voting
behavior of government employees, regional difference, and urban-rural divide. It
was being observed that the women vote bank of PPP was higher as compared to
PML-N mainly due to the leadership factor of Benazir Bhutto. In addition, women
were not independent in deciding to choose among candidates rather it was a family
decision and mainly the instructions of the male members that influence the casting
of the female vote. Furthermore, it is being explained that the popular perception that
PPP had more support within the poor and rural strata of society and PML-N have
been more popular in the middle and upper class persisted in the analysis of Wilder
on general elections as results from the constituencies of Lahore, Faisalabad, and
Gujranwala endorse that PPP got more support from poor strata in the urban areas
as well and PML-N from the middle and upper class(Wilder, 1995, pp. 337-393).
Another very interesting observation was the voting pattern of civilian and military
government employees who cast the vote through postal ballot. The result shows that

147
 Electoral Trends and Political Dynamics of Punjab Province

most of the government employees and bureaucratic sector cast their vote to PML-N
in Punjab. In addition, Andrew R. Wilder’s observation on the regional electoral
patterns of Punjab in the general elections of 1993 and 1998 gives an insight into the
vary voting patterns and electoral trends in the province. Pakistan Muslim League –
Nawaz (PML-N) gradually dominated the political landscape of the northern Punjab
region whereas Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) gained from rural areas of Jhelum and
Chakwal in the 1993 elections. Central Punjab, one of the most economically potential
areas of Punjab influences the provincial assembly and its legislative politics. PML-N
and PPP had a close contestation in the 1993 general elections. But in 1998, the
percentage of votes of PML-N significantly increased. On the other hand, the southern
Punjab region is dominated by the electable belonging to agriculturists while the
political patterns of the western Punjab region predominately revolve around
feudalism and tribalism.

Besides this, Rasul Bakhsh Rais has highlighted three major trends about
politics in Punjab. Firstly, Punjab is the center of politics for leaders and political
parties. Secondly, the writer has endorsed that the swing factor in elections of Punjab
is not a dominant factor. Rather traditionally election contest was between two major
parties, i.e., Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) but
since the 2013 general elections, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is a new factor in
Punjab constituencies. Thirdly, the influence and role of feudal families are significant
in Punjab politics. Therefore, electable plays a vital role in constituency-based politics
(Rais, 2017).

Therefore, the above discussion entails that most of the scholars have derived
the following factors that have a vital role in the electoral politics of Punjab that
incorporates multifaceted features in electoral dynamics.

Material and Methods

For this research, the questionnaire technique was used as the method of
primary data collection to get the opinion of registered voters of Punjab. Total 87
samples responded through an online survey system. Purposive sampling was used
to draw out the sample size to ensure that the sample covers the north, southern,
central, and western constituencies of Punjab. Both male and female gender was part
of the study. In addition, the minimum qualification of the respondents was
undergraduate.

Major Electoral Trends in the Punjab Province of Pakistan

Electoral trends in Punjab reflect the political culture, sociological traits, and
cognitive patterns in the society towards politics. Along with the traditional political
traits, increased youth participation, non-traditional mechanisms of participation
including social media, and consistency in the process of elections are all contributing
factors in understanding the electoral politics and voting behavior of the people of
Pakistan and Punjab in particular. In this context, the following factors were
identified to understand the voting patterns of the people of Punjab.
The way people vote in Punjab shows what they think about
politics and how they act. Young people getting more involved
and social media are now part of it too. To understand why
The Rural-Urban Factor people vote the way they do in Punjab, we look at things like how
they feel about politics, how they live, and how they get involved,
including using social media.

148
 1:Urban Areas: 4 Biradari and
Caste Voting: Clan Affiliation:
People in urban Family ties and
areas tend to Pakistan Social Sciences Review (PSSR) April-June, 2022 Volume 6, Issue 2 clan affiliations
vote based on play a significant
their caste role in
It is being observed that voting behavior in Punjab varies in different geographic determining
affiliations,
meaning they regions. The main variance exists between the urban and the rural areas. The rural voting
support population of Punjab is 68.7 percent and the urban population accounts for 31.3 preferences.
candidates from
their own caste.
percent(Pakistan Bureau of Statistics).Political party affiliation, party manifesto, the
5 Popular Political
general performance of the political party in governance, and family relationships are Party: The
2: Rural Areas: some main features that people living in the urban and city centers of Punjab adhere popularity of a
Local Groupings:
to caste vote for the candidate whereas the rural centers mainly adhere to the local political party
Communities in
during election
rural areas often grouping, the influence of land-owned elites, Biradari and clan affiliation, and mostly campaigns can
have strong local the popular political party at the time of election campaign. In this context, the
heavily influence
ties and vote based
voting behavior in
on these groupings following questions were asked by the respondents related to the pattern of urban-
rural areas.
rather than strictly rural voting behavior.
along party lines.
Table 1
3 Influence of
Land-Owned Do you think that voting patterns in rural and urban areas are different in
Elites: Wealthy Punjab?
landowners often Cumulative
hold sway over Frequency Percent Valid Percent
voting patterns in Percent
rural areas, Agree 68 78.2 78.2 78.2
influencing the
choices of the Disagree 12 13.8 13.8 92.0
Valid
local population. Don't Know 7 8.0 8.0 100.0
Total 87 100.0 100.0

In this perspective, 78.2 percent of the respondents agreed that urban-rural

voting patterns are different in Punjab. The above results complement the existing
literature on urban-rural voting patterns in Punjab. It is being observed that kinship,
1 Political caste, and local political culture are the predominant factors that define the voting
Groupings 2 Personality Profile
(Dharra) and patterns in villages(Bakht, 2019, pp. 192-202). Besides this, another contemporary of Candidates:
Personality: factor that influences urban-rural voting behavior is the element of electronic and Candidate's
Constituency-base
social media. It has increased the level of awareness and participation both in urban personality traits,
d political and rural areas. beliefs, ideology,
dynamics often social standing, and
revolve around leadership abilities
Political Groupings and Personality influence voter
local groupings
and personalities. preferences.
Local group
Political grouping (Dharra) and personality is another predominant feature in Alan S. Gerber's
dynamics are constituency politics. Though local grouping and constituency-based political research highlights
influenced by the Five-Factor
dynamics have not been much space within the academic discussions, it has been one Model (FFM) of
traditional family
ties, rivalries, of the most important aspect of electoral politics. Every constituency has its personality and its
caste, biradari, indigenous distinct features, level of political participation, election and political impact on political
and local power participation.
rivalries. In this context, the majority of the people accounting for 78.2 percent of the Personality traits
dynamics.
Local allegiance is population as per the survey agreed with the role and impact of local groupings in such as
extraversion,
often a decisive constituency politics. Local group dynamics revolve around traditional family ties, agreeableness,
factor in Punjab's rivalries, caste, biradari and powerful influence in the area. Therefore, local allegiance
constituencies. conscientiousness,
tends to be a decisive factor in most of the constituencies of Punjab. emotional stability,
and openness to
3 Influence of experience
Traditional Strong In addition, the personality profile of the candidate itself is an important factor influence voter
Families: in the electoral dynamics of Punjab. Several personality approaches to political perceptions and
Candidates from support for
traditional influential
behavior explain that personality traits and values of the candidates, their belief
candidates.
families often play system, political ideology, social and moral standing along with leadership ability,
significant roles competence and experience all shape up the political preferences of the
within their
communities and
voters(Vecchione, 2013). In this perspective, Alan S. Gerber has explained a
clans. comprehensive relationship between political participation and personality traits. He

149
 Electoral Trends and Political Dynamics of Punjab Province

has implied the Five-Factor Model (FFM) of personality to analyze the various forms
of personality stimuli on three categories of participation including voting behavior
in general elections, participating in national political campaigns, and thirdly
participating in local and community politics. The writer suggests that people with
Extraversion trait are more sociable and assertive, people with Agreeableness
tendency will be more modest, altruist and sympathetic, whereas people with
conscientious tends to be more dutiful and complying with the rules. On the other
hand, personality traits like emotional stability and openness to experience are more
likely to be having a problem-solving approach (Alan S. Gerber, 2011, pp. 692-706).
Consequently, people develop a particular perception about the candidates based on
their personality characters which also affects the voting turnout and support system.

The perception of the voters about the candidates sets the pattern of electoral
trends. Moreover, candidates from traditional strong families mostly have strong and
influential roles within their area and clan.

Table 2
Do you think that people caste vote on the basis of local grouping and personality
in the constituency?
Cumulative
Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Percent
Agree 68 78.2 78.2 78.2
Disagree 18 20.7 20.7 98.9
Valid
Don't Know 1 1.1 1.1 100.0
Total 87 100.0 100.0

2 Political In this context, ample examples can have observed in Punjab where specific 1 Role of Political
Landscape in personalities emerged as popular leaders at the local as well as the national level. In Parties:
Punjab:
addition, they served in important political positions at the provincial and national
Main drivers of
Dominated by three levels. For instance, Chaudhary brothers from Gujrat, Sharif brothers from Lahore, demands in a
main political Ghulam Mustafa Khar from Muzaffargarh, Syeda Abida Hussain, Makhdoom Faisal democratic
parties: PML-N, system.
PPP, and PTI. Saleh Hayat from Jhang, Makhdoom Javed Hashmi, Yousaf Raza Gillani and Shah
Contest elections
PPP initially popular Mehmood Quershi from Multan, Farooq Leghari from Dera Ghazi Khan etc. to gain power
in Punjab in 1970 through a
General Elections,
but gradually lost
Party Affiliations constitutional
process.
strength from 1988
onwards. Political parties are the main carriers of demand in a democratic system. In
PML-N emerged as addition, political parties contest elections through a constitutional process to come 3 Voter Behavior
dominant in Punjab and Party
after sweeping the
in power. Consequently, political parties have a vital role in the overall electoral Affiliation:
1997 General dynamics of the state. They field their candidates in the elections by rigorously opting
Elections. for a cost-benefit calculus. Currently, in Punjab, there are three main political parties, 67.8% of
PTI gained respondents cast
momentum in i.e. PML-N, PPP, and PTI. Pakistan People’s Party remained popular in Punjab in the their vote based
Punjab from 2011 1970 General Elections and secured a two-third majority of seats in Punjab. Then on political party
onwards, gradually from 1988, PPP started losing strength in Punjab(Ayoob, 1972, pp. 215-219). affiliation.
Party affiliation
particularly after the
2013 General It was in the General Elections of 1997 that PML-N swept and then remained a influenced by
Elections. popular political party in Punjab. Eventually, it was in 2011 that PTI emerged as a factors like local
Religious political grouping, general
new factor in Punjab. PTI staged a big procession in Minar-e-Pakistan Lahore and political wave
parties also have
some support in consequently, their politics gained momentum. Though in the 2013 general elections, before elections,
specific PTI won 30 seats, but most of them were from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Even in the 2018 and the
constituencies, with candidate's
Tehreek Labiak
general elections, most of the seats in Punjab were scored by PML-N, but PTI was able relationship and
Pakistan (TLP) to a form provincial government with the coalition. In addition, religious political status within the
emerging as a parties also have support in some particular constituencies of Punjab but they have party cadre.
notable
phenomenon.
150
 Pakistan Social Sciences Review (PSSR) April-June, 2022 Volume 6, Issue 2

been unable to gain any major victory in terms of the seat. Recently, Tehreek Labiak
Pakistan (TLP) is a new phenomenon in Punjab politics. It is being observed that
though they have not won in elections, but they have been able to squeeze the margin
of victory for the other political parties by securing few thousand votes. In this
context, 67.8 percent of the respondents agreed that they cast their vote keeping in
view their political party affiliation, while 32 percent of the respondents did not agree
(Liaqat, 2019). Even the existing literature on Punjab reveals that political party
affiliation is conditioned with the other factors that include local grouping, general
political wave before elections and the relationship and status of the candidate within
the party cadre.

Table 3
Do you think that people only cast vote on the basis of their political party
1 Significance of affiliation? 3 Sectarian
Caste, Biradari, and Division:
Sect: Cumulative Sunni-Shia
Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Integral factors Percent binary division.
shaping political Emerging
Agree 59 67.8 67.8 67.8 implications of
behavior and voting
choices. Valid Disagree 28 32.2 32.2 100.0 sectarian
Inherited from Total 87 100.0 100.0 divisions within
pre-independence Sunni sect, such
subcontinent culture. as Deobandi,
Decisive in rural The Caste, Biradari and Sect Factor Barelvi, and Ahl e
politics of Punjab. Hadith.
Within the electoral culture of the sub-continent, caste and biradari have been
2 Diverse Caste and one of major factors in shaping political behavior and choice of vote. Therefore, even 4 Impact of
Biradari Groups in after independence Pakistan inherited the culture of conceiving caste as an integral Tehreek Labaik
Punjab: part of political campaigns, voting behavior, and support system (Karim, 2014). Most Pakistan (TLP):
Illustrates the
Makhdoms/Quershi,
Jutt, Kharl, Watoos, of the existing literature comprehends the significance of caste, biradari and religious influence of
Mughal, Arain, sect as decisive factors in the rural politics of Punjab. Caste and biradaris including sectarian divisions
Kashmiri, Gujjar, in electoral trends.
Awan, Khokar,
Makhdoms/ Quershi, Jutt, Kharl, Watoos, Mughal, Arain, Kashmiri, Gujjar, Awan, Despite not majorly
Janjua, Malik, Khokar, Janjua, Malik, Dogar, Paracha, Bodla, Khanzada, Kasuri, Chaudary, Leghari, succeeding in 2018
Dogar, Paracha, Bosan, Marath reside in Punjab. On the other hand, traditionally, the binary sectarian General Elections,
Bodla, Khanzada, TLP gained
Kasuri, Chaudary,
division between Sunni and Shia sects is also one of the sources of attaining political significant support
Leghari, Bosan, support based on religious ideology. In the recent past, the sect-based division within in Punjab.
Marath. the Sunni sect particularly between Deoband, Barelvi, and Ahl e Hadith has also
implications on the electoral trends in Punjab. The emergence of Tehrek Labaik
Pakistan (TLP), a Barelvi group transformed into a political party illustrates this
5 Mixed Response on trend. Punjab became the major vote bank of TLP. Though they did not get any major
Importance of Factors: success in the General elections of 2018, their candidates were placed at third number
56.3% of
respondents in 62 constituencies in Punjab(Chaudhry, 2018).In this context, there was a mixed
acknowledge the response by the sample population, unlike the traditional patterns. Though, 56.3
significance of caste,
biradari, and religious
percent of the people endorsed that caste, biradari and religious sect are an important
sect in voting source of voting behavior in Punjab, but on the same hand, a propionate of 35.6
behavior. percent people negated with the importance of caste, biradari, and the feature of the
35.6% negate the
importance of these religious sect, whereas 8 percent of the respondents were indecisive. There are several
factors, indicating factors that explicates this new trend which includes the rise of youth bulge which
changing trends. accounts for sixty-four percent of Pakistan’s population, the renewed role and
8% of respondents
are indecisive. participatory trends within the political parties, the socio-cultural and economic
change in the villages including education level, economic standing and diverse
agricultural activities(Usman, 2016, pp. 605-616) along with the increased use of social
media platforms and increased urbanization all contributes in slightly reducing the
6: Factors Contributing to Changing Trends:
Rise of youth population (64% of Pakistan's population).
Renewed role and participatory trends within political parties.
Socio-cultural and economic changes in villages, including education levels, economic status, and agricultural
diversification. 151
Increased use of social media platforms and urbanization contributing to reduced significance of caste, biradari, and
religious sect in electoral trends.
 Electoral Trends and Political Dynamics of Punjab Province

significance of caste, biradari, and religious sect factor as the only factors in electoral
trends in Pakistan and Punjab in particular.

Table 4
Do you think that caste, biradari and religious sect is an important source of
voting behavior in Punjab?
Cumulative
Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Percent
2: Importance of
Agree 49 56.3 56.3 56.3 Local Issues:
1: Local Politics
Dynamics: Disagree 31 35.6 35.6 92.0 Decisive factor in
Different from Valid voting behavior, as
Don't Know 7 8.0 8.0 100.0 candidates are seen
national politics,
focusing on Total 87 100.0 100.0 as potential problem
socio-political and solvers.
economic issues at Local issues in
the constituency Issue Based Local Politics Punjab include
level. infrastructural and
Constituency-based The dynamics of local politics are different from national politics in terms of development-related
issues range from issues,
personal to
the nature of socio-political and economic issues. Constituency based local issues non-availability of
town-level matters, incorporates minor as well as major issues within the societal cadre ranging from basic services
influencing voter (healthcare,
personal to town level matters. People seek support and help from the candidate for education, social
behavior.
the resolution of their problems. Consequently, this aspect of local dynamics becomes services), and
3: Role of a decisive factor in the voting behavior of people. Local issues in Punjab and government
office-related
Politicians in Local elsewhere mostly include infrastructural and development-related issues, non- matters.
Matters:
Involved in availability of basic services including health, education, social services, and other
informal conflict matters related to government offices. In addition, politicians are also part of informal
resolution, 5: Local Relationship
management, and mechanisms of conflict resolution, management, and settlement in local matters. In with Candidates:
settlement of local this perspective, the majority of the 73% percent population endorsed this narrative Crucial and decisive
issues.
that people give more importance to constituency-based issues as compared to factor in Punjab
politics.
4: Voter Perception: national issues in casting their vote mainly due to the dominant role of candidates in Candidates' strong
73% of the population their domestic matters. This trend further provides dominance and stronghold to the local ties and ability
agrees that to address local
constituency-based candidates on the voters in their areas. This local relationship with the voter and the issues enhance their
issues are more candidate is one of the most important and decisive factors in Punjab politics. influence over voters.
important than national
issues when casting
their vote. Table 5
Candidates' Do you think that people give more importance to their local constituency issues
dominance in in comparison national issues while casting the vote?
addressing domestic
matters strengthens Cumulative
their hold over voters Frequency Percent Valid Percent Percent
in their areas.
Valid Agree 64 73.6 73.6 73.6
Disagree 20 23.0 23.0 96.6
Don't Know 3 3.4 3.4 100.0
Total 87 100.0 100.0
1: Importance of 2: Factors
Performance Considered by
Evaluation:
Performance of Previous Government Voters:
Crucial scale for Economic and
measuring voter The parameter of performance of candidates in their area and the overall security situations
tendency towards are primary
performance of the government is an important scale of measuring the tendency of considerations.
candidates and political
parties. voters towards the candidate and the political party. Generically, the performance of Concerns focus on
Government the government shapes up an environment for the next elections in terms of people’s inflation,
employment, and
performance shapes
voter support and support and the level of satisfaction that they have with the government. Evaluations security rather than
satisfaction levels, on the overall economic and security situation are the most common factors that are macroeconomic and
impacting the strategic planning.
observed by the voters. Unlike, any macroeconomic and strategic planning, people
environment for
upcoming elections. are more concerned about issues related to inflation, employment, and

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3: Candidate Selection
and Electoral Trends: Pakistan Social Sciences Review (PSSR) April-June, 2022 Volume 6, Issue 2
Candidates often seek 4: Voter Opinion on
party tickets based on security(Voting Behavior in the 2008 Elections). Consequently, most of the candidates Previous
Government
general electoral
trends towards specific also seek part tickets keeping in view the general electoral trend towards a particular Performance:
parties or groups. party or group. Therefore, this survey also postulates the performance of the previous 69% of respondents
Performance of the agree that the
previous government government is one of the determining factors in shaping up the opinion of the voters. performance of the
is a determining factor Sixty-nine percent of the people agreed that the performance card of the previous previous
in shaping voter government and the association of candidate with that government is substantial government
candidate
and
opinions.
whereas approximately 26% of the respondents negated this proposition. association with it is
substantial.
Table 6 Approximately 26%
of respondents
Do you think that people support a candidate on the basis of the performance of disagree with this
previous government? proposition.
Cumulative
1: Role of Bureaucracy Frequency Percent Valid Percent
and Establishment: Percent
Central to the functioning
of the state and deeply
embedded in Punjab's Agree 60 69.0 69.0 72.4
governance structure Valid Disagree 23 26.4 26.4 98.9
since colonial times.
Bureaucracy includes Don't Know 1 1.1 1.1 100.0
civil servants, while the Total 87 100.0 100.0
establishment refers to
armed forces and
influential elites. External Factors- Establishment and Bureaucratic Maneuvering
Proportionate
recruitment of civil Apolitical and impersonal bureaucracy and the establishment are central to
servants and military
personnel from Punjab the functioning of the state.The bureaucratic hierarchy at the central and provincial 3: Public Perception:
due to population and has been deeply embedded in the governance structure of Punjab since the colonial 75.9% of
education ratio. respondents believe
Increased role of era(Shahzad, 2017, pp. 17-20).Bureaucracy includes the civil servants and that bureaucracy
establishment and establishment in Pakistan is a notion that is mostly used for armed forcesand other and establishment
bureaucracy in Pakistani
politics due to
influential elites in Pakistan. Even after the independence of Pakistan, a proportionate play a significant role
in Punjab politics.
dictatorship, poor ratio of civil servants and military personnel from Punjab were recruited from Punjab They are perceived
governance, lack of mainly due to the population and education ratio of the province. Due to long years as managing
decentralization, and political regimes and
weak political leadership. of dictatorship, poor governance of democratic regimes, lack of decentralization engineering
mechanisms and weak political leadership, the role of establishment and elections, influencing
2: Military's Role in the entire electoral
bureaucracyhave been significantly increased in Pakistan politics.On the other hand, process.
Politics:
Traditionally involved in the role of the military in the politics of Pakistan has been twofold. Traditionally
directly overthrowing military established a direct role in politics by overthrowing the democratic regimes.
democratic regimes
and influencing Besides this, they had been an influential factor and source of a power center in
policy-making during policy-making during democratic regimes as well.Due to their strong position and
democratic periods. role in governance, bureaucracy and pockets within the establishment have been
Politicized bureaucracy
and segments within politicized. In this context, 75.9 percent of the respondents agreed that bureaucracy
the establishment due and establishment has a profound role in Punjab politics. Managing political regimes,
to their strong position
and governance role. electable and election day engineering are mostly maneuvered by them. This
perception of respondents also gives an insight that to what extent people believe in
the role of external factors that can influence the whole electoral process.

Table 7
Do you think that during elections bureaucratic and establishment maneuvering
is a significant factor in Punjab politics?
Cumulative
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Percent
Valid
Agree 66 75.9 75.9 77.0
Disagree 11 12.6 12.6 89.7

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 Electoral Trends and Political Dynamics of Punjab Province 3: Bargaining Power
1: Significance of and Demands:
Independent Independent
Candidates: Don't Know 9 10.3 10.3 100.0 candidates in a good
Central to
understanding electoral
Total 87 100.0 100.0 bargaining position,
often demanding
dynamics and portfolios in the
post-election The Role of Independent Candidates government.
government formations
in Punjab.
Particularly popular in The role of independent candidates in Punjab is central in understanding the
Southern Punjab, whereelectoral dynamics and post-election settlements to form the government at the 4: Public
candidates contest Perception:
based on family, caste, provincial and national levels. The culture of contesting as an independent candidate 64% of
and group support, later is popular particularly in the Southern Punjab region where candidates on the basis respondents agree
joining ruling parties. that independent
Independent candidates
of family, cast and group support contest elections and later on join the ruling party. candidates have a
and small political Consequently, independent candidates and small political parties take a central decisive role in
parties play a crucial Punjab's political
position in post-election settlements in the formation of the government. For instance, dynamics after
role in post-election
settlements and in the 2013 general elections, 12 national assembly independent candidates from elections.
government formation. Punjab joined PML-N as they were in the position to form the government Approximately
26% of
2: Examples of (www.tribune.com.pk, 2013). Then, in the 2018 general elections, both PML-N and respondents do not
Influence: PTI were somehow dependent on 29 independent candidates from Punjab to form agree with the
In 2013 general decisive role of
the provincial and national government (www.tribune.com.pk, 2018). Usually in such independent
elections, 12
independent situations, the candidates are in a good bargaining position and they mostly demand candidates after
candidates from elections.
a portfolio in the government. In this context, the survey data also endorse this
Punjab joined PML-N,
facilitating narrative as approximately 64 percent of the respondents agreed that independent
government formation. candidates have a decisive role in the political dynamics of Punjab after elections. On
In 2018 general
elections, both PML-N
the other hand, around 26 percent of the respondents did not agree with the decisive
and PTI relied on 29 role of independent candidates after elections.
independent
candidates from Table 8
Punjab for
government formation. Do you think that independent candidates become decisive factor in Punjab
politics after elections?
Cumulative
Frequency Percent Valid Percent
Percent
Agree 56 64.4 64.4 67.8
Disagree 23 26.4 26.4 94.3
Valid
Don't Know 5 5.7 5.7 100.0
Total 87 100.0 100.0

Conclusion

The electoral dynamics of Punjab are dominated by a combination of

traditional and new factors including local dynamics, party politics, cast, and biradari
factors along with the cognitive features of local personalities. In addition, being the
most important and largest province in terms of a number of candidates, the overall
wave of election environment of Punjab has implications in the center as well. Besides
this, political maneuvering by the establishment has been increased in Punjab. The
survey indicates that people believe that they play an acute role in the whole process
of pre and post-election phase that have a negative impact on the democratic norms.
Moreover, it is being observed that along with the role of political parties,
independent candidates are also a significant factor in the politics of Punjab.
The electoral dynamics in Punjab blend traditional factors like local dynamics, party politics, caste, and biradari with the
influence of local personalities. Additionally, the role of political maneuvering, particularly by the establishment, has
increased, impacting democratic norms, while independent candidates also hold significant sway in Punjab's political
landscape.

154
 Pakistan Social Sciences Review (PSSR) April-June, 2022 Volume 6, Issue 2

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