India maintained its position as the fastest-growing major economy in 2018-19, despite a

slight moderation in GDP growth from 7.2% to 6.8%. India’s average growth rate outpaced
China’s during 2014-15 to 2017-18 and exceeded other major economies. Adjusted for
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), India ranks third globally in GDP. Over the last five years,
real GDP growth averaged 7.5%. In 2018, India faced challenges due to high oil prices, trade
tensions, and banking sector issues. However, sectors like IT, pharmaceuticals, and consumer
goods showed steady growth. By 2019, signs of recovery emerged, driven by government
initiatives, consumer spending, and infrastructure projects, marking a mixed period of
challenges and opportunities in India’s business cycle.

India’s GDP growth in the first half (H1) of 2019-20 was 4.8%, lower than the 6.2% recorded in the
second half (H2) of 2018-19. The business cycle length appears to be around 13 quarters, with
fluctuations in growth rates. A study on India’s business cycle since 1996 indicates that during
acceleration, the cycle averages 12 quarters, while during deceleration, it reduces to 9 quarters. The
contribution of agriculture and allied sectors has declined, while services have surged ahead.
Industrial activities, including manufacturing, have also seen a decline. A resurgence in growth is
expected in H2 of 2019-20. Overall, India transitioned from an expansion phase to a recessionary
phase during this period.

India’s economy faced subdued growth in 2019 but began to regain momentum in early
2020. However, the COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp contraction in Q1 and Q2 of FY
2020-21 due to stringent lockdowns. Since then, high-frequency indicators have shown a V-
shaped recovery. The economy’s fundamentals remain strong, supported by gradual easing of
lockdowns and the Atmanirbhar Bharat Mission. The First Advance Estimates project a real
GDP growth of 9.2% in 2021-22, rebounding from a 7.3% contraction in 2020-21. Despite
the severe health impact of the second wave, economic activity has recovered beyond pre-
pandemic levels. Robust capital inflows and prudent interventions by the RBI bolstered
India’s foreign exchange reserves to a record high, covering over 18 months of imports.

India’s business cycle during 2021 to 2022 transitioned from recovery to expansion. As the country
emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic, economic activity rebounded. Sectors like IT,
pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy showed resilience. Challenges such as inflation and supply
chain disruptions persisted. Agriculture and allied sectors grew, while industry rebounded after a
contraction. The services sector, especially those involving human contact, faced significant
challenges. Monetary policy supported growth while maintaining liquidity. Overall, India’s economy
moved from recession to recovery, with some volatility and uneven sectoral performance

India’s industrial sector witnessed robust growth in FY 2022-23. The Gross Value Added
(GVA) rose by 3.7%, surpassing the past decade’s average. Key highlights include:

 India became the second-largest global mobile phone manufacturer, producing 29

crore units.
 Electronics exports tripled from $4.4 billion (FY19) to $11.6 billion (FY22).
 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the Pharma Industry quadrupled, reaching $699
million (FY22).
  Over 39,000 compliances were reduced, and more than 3500 provisions were
decriminalized as of January 2023, signaling positive trends for India’s industrial
growth.
 The RBI initiated a monetary tightening cycle in April 2022, raising the repo rate by
225 bps to moderate surplus liquidity conditions.
 Non-food credit offtake by scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) has been growing
in double digits.
 Credit disbursed by Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) has also
increased. Overall, India’s industrial sector showed resilience and positive momentum
during this period.

India’s economy rebounded strongly in the first quarter of FY23, surpassing the UK to
become the fifth-largest economy. Key highlights include:

 GDP growth at current prices in Q2 2023-24 estimated at Rs. 71.66 trillion (US$
861.2 billion), growing by 9.1%.
 Food processing industry attracted US$ 12.35 billion in cumulative FDI equity
inflow.
 Processed vegetables, fruits, and nuts contributed significantly to exports.
 India is an export hub for software services, with expected growth in IT outsourcing
and business services.
 GST exemptions for education and health services promote necessary sectors.
 Digital initiatives like the National Agriculture Market (e-NAM) Scheme and PM
Matsya Sampada Yojana enhance efficiency and expand markets.
 Robust growth in agriculture, services, and software exports signals India’s
economic resilience.

India maintained its position as the fastest-growing major economy in 2018-19, despite a
slight moderation in GDP growth from 7.2% to 6.8%. India’s average growth rate outpaced
China’s during 2014-15 to 2017-18 and exceeded other major economies. Adjusted for
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), India ranks third globally in GDP. Over the last five years, real
GDP growth averaged 7.5%. In 2018, India faced challenges due to high oil prices, trade
tensions, and banking sector issues. However, sectors like IT, pharmaceuticals, and consumer
goods showed steady growth. By 2019, signs of recovery emerged, driven by government
initiatives, consumer spending, and infrastructure projects, marking a mixed period of
challenges and opportunities in India’s business cycle. India maintained its position as the
fastest-growing major economy in 2018-19, despite a slight moderation in GDP growth from
7.2% to 6.8%. Over the last five years, real GDP growth averaged 7.5%. However, the COVID-
19 pandemic significantly impacted India’s business cycle in 2020-21, causing a sharp
contraction due to nationwide lockdowns and supply chain disruptions. By 2021-22, India
witnessed a rebound, with robust growth in agriculture, industry, and services. Despite
pandemic challenges, India remains resilient and adaptable in its economic recovery.
India’s economy faced subdued growth in 2019 but began to regain momentum in early
2020. However, the COVID-19 pandemic caused a sharp contraction in Q1 and Q2 of FY
2020-21 due to stringent lockdowns. Since then, high-frequency indicators have shown a V-
shaped recovery. The economy’s fundamentals remain strong, supported by gradual easing of
lockdowns and the Atmanirbhar Bharat Mission. The First Advance Estimates project a real
GDP growth of 9.2% in 2021-22, rebounding from a 7.3% contraction in 2020-21. Despite
the severe health impact of the second wave, economic activity has recovered beyond pre-
pandemic levels. Robust capital inflows and prudent interventions by the RBI bolstered
India’s foreign exchange reserves to a record high, covering over 18 months of imports.
India’s business cycle during 2021 to 2022 transitioned from recovery to expansion. As the
country emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic, economic activity rebounded. Sectors like
IT, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy showed resilience. Challenges such as inflation
and supply chain disruptions persisted. Agriculture and allied sectors grew, while industry
rebounded after a contraction. The services sector, especially those involving human contact,
faced significant challenges. Monetary policy supported growth while maintaining
liquidity. Overall, India’s economy moved from recession to recovery, with some volatility
and uneven sectoral performance

India’s industrial sector witnessed robust growth in FY 2022-23. The Gross Value Added
(GVA) rose by 3.7%, surpassing the past decade’s average. Key highlights include India
becoming the second-largest global mobile phone manufacturer, electronics exports tripling,
and quadrupled Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the Pharma Industry. Over 39,000
compliances were reduced, and more than 3500 provisions were decriminalized, signaling
positive trends. The RBI initiated a monetary tightening cycle, and credit disbursed by Non-
Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) increased. India’s economy rebounded strongly in
Q2 2023-24, estimated at Rs. 71.66 trillion (US$ 861.2 billion), growing by 9.1%. Food
processing, software services, and digital initiatives contributed to this resilience. Overall,
India’s economic recovery remains adaptable and promising .