Weekly report for the week of the 20th-24th march 2023

From the previous weekly commentary, we were faced with a difficult weekly projection of
where the candle was likely to trade, one thing we accounted for was an FOMC week as well
as expecting PWL to be taken and then work way higher from discount. The turquoise box
illustrates a bullish rejection block for the weekly chart of the DXY.

The economic calendar:

The economic calendar for the week had all the signatures for a mid-end of week reversal.
And how could we have known that? If you refer to the weekly commentary 56, we evaluate
the economic calendar and I tell you guys to focus your energy on the first half of the week.
Are there economic drivers on Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday? The day of the driver OR
the one before it is likely to be the opposing end of the range. Now why is it one of these
two specific days? Imagine the 3-bar swing formation for a high or low. The 3-bar formation
is a power of three itself. The first candle being the accumulation, the central candle making
the high/low is the manipulation (as it sweeps the previous candles liquidity) and the next
candle that moves away and confirms the 3 bar is the distribution of the power of three.
This is a big gem, note it. You can make entire trading systems around 3 bar formations
inside of time of day at PD arrays (using OHLC/OLHC). Now the day of the news of the one
before it is likely to be the high or low as the news driver is never accumulative (well we
don’t expect it) so it then falls into either manipulative or distribution. Given the day before
created a distinct swing point (usually a suspect rejection block) you can expect the news to
drive away and Friday of this report is an absolute picture-perfect case study for this.
Monday the 20th of March:

From the weekly commentary I recommended for you guys to be careful trading the start of
the week due to FOMC. One thing we understood was the protraction move was most likely
to favour the PWL and why could we sieve that out? Notice the previous week’s candle and
its close, it closed in a close proximity to its low. This sets up the next candle to open up
close to the previous candles low, considering we have FOMC and other drivers for the week
it makes sense for the PWL to be a likely draw on price as it is easier to sweep the PWL
rather than travel the distance to the PWH. Blend in the idea of premium and discount, we
were at the fair value of the range (50%) so we can assume a run into the discount of the
range whilst sweeping the PWL. The next daily candle is Tuesday, the day before FOMC.
Already knowing that it is a day before FOMC we can already anticipate low probability
conditions. The market will chop and whipsaw in the build-up to large events like FPMX,
NFP, CPI. Now nothing in price will tell you this, only time will tell you this. Read that again.
Time is an invisible factor to most, we associate candles with price only as they move up and
down in real time and not side by side. Noob traders do not even know that economic
calendar exists, they are completely ignorant of the idea of accumulation prior to large news
events and they get caught. What specific market profile can we expect prior to these big
events? A seek and destroy profile where the market will take out the consolidation high,
then low and then come back into the consolidation trapping both buyers and sellers in
their position. Can price tell you that it will enter seek and destroy? No. it is time. Time tells
you where expansions reside to. Forget the economic calendar for a second that’s way too
easy to know red folders hold expansionary moves, do you expect expansion of the daily
range at 10pm New York time? No. time is what sets you up to understand the likely
expansion, you just need to find your model in price inside of the likely expansion times.
That’s it, that’s all it boils down to. Ive taught you extensively in chapter three and six where
expansions are likely to reside and the specific times, you just need to find a price action
model that you personally gravitate towards to enter inside the given time windows.
Tuesday the 21st of March:

As seen here we can see Tuesday is a smaller range day. And to be more specific which
session do we expect to consolidate on Tuesday? The NYOKZ session. London perhaps you
can find a setup, we don’t expect the candle to expand much as FOMC follow the next day.
In saying that we expect a smaller ADR for Tuesday, it is only favourable to trade London if
that even offers anything. But as the job as a trader especially If you decide to operate the
LOKZ you turn up nonetheless and hunt your model in line with price action.

This was the LOKZ for EURUSD on Tuesday. We can see clear market structure shift inside
the LOKZ… specifically 2:30 if I am not wrong. For those who have researched CLS times and
have studied their time line you will see many things line up with those times with the LOKZ.
Now the DXY we favour lower prices until the middle-end of week as the expansion of the
range is likely to be there due to the economic calendar. The next daily candle for the DXY
we could have favoured lower to the PDL as it opened close to the PDL and it would take us
towards discount/OTE of the range. Just this small thing can set up a draw on liquidity or
direction for you to trade in. once the direction is decided then you just hunt a price action
model in line with it. We see a run on stops and displacement away creating MSS and a FVG
left. The key is its inside time element. What has been the model ive nudged you towards as
new traders from the previous weekly report? Run on stops, displacement, a FVG and get in
on the start of the FVG and here is that exact model again. The next day is FOMC, a
complete no trade day (for day trading) I was placed inside of a swing trade, my stop was hit
70pips wide… and then it ran my way! Trading for you. That happens and I know it will
happen more times, these are things we sign up for it’s the tax of the business.

Wednesday the 22nd of March:

FOMC day. Let us see FOMC on a lower timeframe to understand why we just leave te day
to pass to build a bias.
You see the entire day chop and consolidate before FOMC? As traders we need
manipulation/retracements to get in line with price. It is difficult and low probability trades
to enter inside a consolidation and hope for our direction to be traded to this is why FOMC
is better left alone. The outcome of the FOMC we will leave for the weekly commentary
following this report.

Notice the difference in what is a favourable daily expansion to trade? We like to see clear
manipulation to entertain daily direction/4H direction. You see how Tuesday’s London made
clear manipulation allowing for us to hunt short positions, now look at Wednesday side by
side just a consolidation and large move one way. It is hard to entertain those moves, we
need levels of manipulation to align ourselves with distribution.

Now after seeing FOMC trade lower our eye as the trader needs to evaluate something. Has
it traded into a PD array or sellside liquidity? If not, what is the PD array or liquidity it is
seeking. And this is the simplest way to re-align yourself with price after a day with a wrong
bias. If hit into a Pd array hunt them move away from it backed by a run on stops lower
timeframe followed by displacement away from the PD array. If price is still reaching for a
PD array then hunt in line to it. In the telegram group chat if you search the reference 109.1
in the search bar you will see how I said focus the weekly bullish rejection block for the DXY.

Thursday the 23rd of March:

For Thursday we can see we smacked that level near perfectly (101.915 was the low). Now
on an intraday level in chapter three when did I say that we can reversal? When higher
timeframe PD arrays are met. Let’s look at this on a 5m chart.
You see London judas swing to the weekly rejection block. THESE ARE THE MARKET
STRUCTURE SHIFTS AND TRUE BREAKERS TO CONSIDER. The run on stops and
displacement needs to come from a higher timeframe reference point, a sweep on liquidity
or PD arrays. Again, followed by a FVG, IOFED and expansion, the gap in price could have
been a profit taking level. This is all you need. That FVG after a market structure shift with
displacement. This is all you need.

Now shift your focus back to the first image of the daily of Thursday. Let us tie in what we
discussed in the economic calendar section of this report. Notice how Thursday traded
down into the weekly rejection block and wicked away? That is likely to be the middle
candle of a 3-bar swing low as it is off of a higher timeframe PD array. There is news on
Friday, where can we expect the candle to trade to? Higher. many of you got this correct,
this is progress. Well done.
Friday the 24th of March:

On the night of Thursday, I took your attention to mark Tuesday’s daily FVG for EURUSD and
to work towards Mondays daily FVG for the DXY. And why? Because the DXY traded lower
into a bullish PDA and rejected with good hourly displacement, Thursday has probably
capped the range and Friday’s candle shows way more willingness to expand higher than
lower. See how easy it is when price trades away from a PDA? And the next target is always
frame is the NEXT target not an insanely far target. Remember always focus on where the
next daily candle is likely to trade, it can only trade so much right? Consider this. Always the
next weekly/daily candle and then we hunt in our direction.
This concludes this weekly report. See how the days after FOMC were easy? Cherry-pick
your daily candles to trade. When you have a gauge of the next likely candles expansion
then entertain the next day otherwise do not. You are never forced; you conquer fear and
greed.