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IFAC PapersOnLine 51-24 (2018) 208–213
Degradation-level Assessment and Online Prognostics for Sliding Chair Failure
Degradation-level Assessment
Degradation-level Assessment on and Online
andPoint
Online Prognostics
Prognostics for for Sliding
Sliding Chair
Chair Failure
Failure
Degradation-level Assessment on and Online Machines
Prognostics for Sliding Chair Failure
Degradation-level Assessment on Point
andPoint
Online Machines
Machines
Prognostics for Sliding Chair Failure
on Point
Vepa Atamuradov*, Kamal Medjaher*, Machines
Fatih Camci**, Pierre Dersin***, Noureddine Zerhouni****
Vepa on
Medjaher*, Point
Fatih Machines
Vepa Atamuradov*, Kamal Medjaher*, Fatih Camci**, Pierre
Atamuradov*, Kamal Camci**, Pierre Dersin***,
Dersin***, Noureddine
Noureddine Zerhouni****
Zerhouni****
Vepa Atamuradov*,
Vepa Atamuradov*, Kamal Kamal Medjaher*,
Medjaher*, Fatih Fatih Camci**,

Camci**, Pierre
Pierre Dersin***,
Dersin***, NoureddineNoureddine Zerhouni****
Zerhouni****
Vepa Atamuradov*, Kamal Medjaher*, Fatih 
Camci**, Pierre47Dersin***, Noureddine Zerhouni****
*Production Engineering Laboratory 
(LGP), INP-ENIT Av. d’Azereix, Tarbes, 65000,
France*Production
(Tel: +33Engineering
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Laboratory  INP-ENIT
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vepa.atamuradov@enit.fr
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***ALSTOM Transport, 93400(e-mail
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**Advanced
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(e-mail:
****FEMTO-ST ***ALSTOM(e-mail: Transport, 9340015B
pierre.dersin@alstomgroup.com) Saint-Ouen, France
****FEMTO-ST Institute, Institute, UMR UMR CNRS CNRS 6174
(e-mail:
6174 –– UFC/ENSMM
pierre.dersin@alstomgroup.com)
(e-mail: zerhouni@ens2m.fr
UFC/ENSMM 15B av.av. des ) Montboucons,
des Montboucons, 25000 25000 Besançon,
Besançon, France France
****FEMTO-ST Institute, UMR CNRS (e-mail:
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****FEMTO-ST Institute, UMR CNRS 6174 (e-mail:
(e-mail: zerhouni@ens2m.fr
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zerhouni@ens2m.fr 15B av. des ) Montboucons, 25000 Besançon,
) Montboucons, 25000 Besançon, France France
****FEMTO-ST Institute, UMR CNRS 6174 (e-mail:
(e-mail:– UFC/ENSMM
zerhouni@ens2m.fr
zerhouni@ens2m.fr 15B av. des )) Montboucons, 25000 Besançon, France
Abstract: This paper presents a degradation-level (e-mail: zerhouni@ens2m.frassessment and) failure prognostics methodology for
Abstract:
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degrading systems.
This paper
paper The presents
proposed
presents aa degradation-level
methodology consists
degradation-level assessment
of offline
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andand failure
onlineprognostics
failure phases. In the
prognostics methodology
offline phase,
methodology for
for
Abstract:
degrading
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different This
systems.
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degradingtime-domain paper
paper The
systems. Thehealth presents
proposed
presents
proposed a
a degradation-level
methodology
degradation-level
indicators (HIs) areconsists
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consists of
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extracted of and and
offline
and and
the best
offline failure
online
failure
indicator
and online prognostics
phases.
prognostics In methodology
the offline
methodology
of degradation
phases. In the offline is selected for
phase,
for
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Abstract:
degrading
different
degrading
by This
systems.
time-domain
systems.
filter-based paper
methods.The
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health
proposed
Then, a degradation-level
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© 2018, IFAC
Keywords:
monitoring
degradation-level
degradation-level (International
(CM) data. TheFederation
degradation-level
assessment
assessment
assessment,
results
and
and in
in of Automatic
show
online
online theControl)
clustering,
that predictions.
RUL
RUL methodology
predictions. Hosting can
change-point by Elsevier
detection, Ltd.
be effectively All prognostics,
failure rights
used in reserved. RUL
machine
Keywords:
prediction,
Keywords: railway degradation-level
point machines,
degradation-level assessment,
assessment,sliding-chair clustering, change-point
degradation,
clustering, predictive
change-point detection, failure
failure prognostics,
maintenance.
detection, prognostics, RUL RUL
degradation-level
Keywords: assessment
degradation-level and in
assessment, online RUL predictions.
clustering, change-point detection, failure prognostics,
prognostics, RUL RUL
prediction,
prediction, railway
Keywords: railway point
point machines,
degradation-level machines,assessment,sliding-chair
sliding-chair degradation,
clustering, predictive
change-point
degradation, predictive maintenance.
detection, failure
maintenance.
Keywords:
prediction, railway
prediction, degradation-level
railway point machines,
point machines,assessment,sliding-chair
sliding-chair clustering, change-point
degradation,
degradation, predictive
predictive detection, failure prognostics, RUL
maintenance.
maintenance.

prediction, railway point machines, sliding-chair degradation,  conducted in (Yoon
predictive et al. 2016) using in-field DC current
maintenance.
1. INTRODUCTION  conducted in (Yoon et
1. signals
conducted based in on
(Yoon et al.
Dynamic 2016)
al. Time using
2016)Warping (DTW)DC
using in-field
in-field DC current
technique
current
1. INTRODUCTION
INTRODUCTION  conducted
signals
conducted
for point based in
in
machine (Yoon
on
(Yoon et
Dynamic
et
fault al.
al. 2016)
Time
2016)
detection. using
Warping
using
In (Jinin-field
(DTW)
in-field
et al. DC
DC current
technique
current
2015), the
1. INTRODUCTION
1. INTRODUCTION signals based on Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) technique
Machine degradation-level assessment (MDA) is one of the conducted signals
for based in (Yoon
on aDynamic et al. Time
Dynamic 2016)
Time using
Warping in-field
(DTW) DC current
technique
Machine degradation-level1. INTRODUCTION
assessment (MDA) is one of the for point
signals
authors
point machine
based
proposed
machine on fault
fault detection.
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Warping (Jin
assessment
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et al.
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authors
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machine
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In (Jin
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the
Machine
important
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Prognostics
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management of the authors proposed a systematicdiagnostics
health using
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issues inThePrognosticsMDA and (MDA)
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results
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methodology mode
based decomposition
on (EMD)
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decomposition (SVD) the artificially using an exponential propagation
the authors
methodology
and empirical
methodology proposed
based
mode
based on an
singular
decomposition
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decomposition
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and the prognostics.
artificially
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(EMD) decomposition
detection
techniques (SVD)
of electro-
and the The whenproposed
compared to
methodology prognostics
gave better RUL tools. A data-driven
prediction results
methodology
and empirical
Mahalanobis
and empirical based
mode
distance
mode on singular
decomposition
metric
decomposition for value
(EMD)
fault
(EMD) decomposition
techniques
detection
techniques of (SVD)
and
andfromthe
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when
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compared
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methodology
to
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different gave
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better
prognostics
better propagation
RUL
RUL tools.prediction
A
prediction function.
results
data-driven
al.results
mechanical
Mahalanobis point machines
distance metricusing forpower
fault signals
detection acquired
of electro- to model
different wasprognostics
proposed in (Letot
tools. A et 2015)
data-driven
and empirical
Mahalanobis
mechanical
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distance
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machines
distance metric
metricusing for
for (EMD)
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was better
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proposed
prognostics RUL tools.
in
tools.prediction
(Letot A
A results
data-driven
et al. 2015)
data-driven
the point machine
mechanical point machines test bench.using powerA similar signals work
acquired was fromalso failure prognostics model assessment
was proposed using the power
in (Letot et al.signals
2015)
Mahalanobis
mechanical
the point
mechanical distance
point
machine
point machines
test
machines metricusing
bench.
using forpower
fault
power
A detection
signals
similar
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acquired
work
acquired electro-
from
also
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proposed
assessment
proposed using tools.
in
in (Letot
the
(Letot A data-driven
et
power
et al.
al. 2015)
signals
2015)
the point machine test bench. A similar work was also for point machine health assessment using the power signals
mechanical
the
the point
point point
machine
machine machines
test
test using
bench.
bench. power
A
A signals
similar
similar acquired
work
work was
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also
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for
for point
point prognostics
machine
machine model assessment
health
health was proposed
assessment using
usingin (Letot
the
the et al.signals
power
power 2015)
signals
Copyright © 2018 IFAC 208
2405-8963
the point © 2018,
machine
Copyright © 2018 IFAC IFAC (International
test bench. AFederation
similar of Automatic
work was Control)
also 208 Hosting
for point by Elsevier
machine Ltd. All
health rights reserved.
assessment using the power signals
Copyright
Peer review©under
2018 responsibility
IFAC 208Control.
of International Federation of Automatic
Copyright
Copyright ©
© 2018
2018 IFAC
IFAC
10.1016/j.ifacol.2018.09.579 208
208
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IFAC SAFEPROCESS 2018
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acquired from the test bench. The point machine degradation
model, which is the combination of linear and exponential
functions, was built using an extracted time-domain based HI
to predict the RUL of the system. A generic fault detection
methodology was presented in (Atamuradov et al. 2017) based
on a segment evaluation and inferential statistics approach.
The authors extracted different statistical HIs from the DC
current signal of point machine and employed data fusion to
construct a unique system HI. The fused HI was further used
in fault detection by segment evaluation. In (Ashasi-Sorkhabi
et al. 2017), the authors proposed fault detection and
prognostics approach for automated people mover train
gearbox. The fault detection was carried out online using an
extracted HIs from vibration signals and the data-driven
prognostics model parameters were updated based on a
Bayesian approach and was validated on the periodically
logged field data. Air leakage detection and failure prediction
approach for the train braking system was proposed in (Lee
2017). A regression classifiers were used in failure modes
modeling and a density-based clustering was utilized to detect
the leakage anomalies using compressor data. The
methodology was efficiently demonstrated in anomaly
detection and severity prediction based on logistic function.
Several interesting types of research on point machine fault
diagnostics can also be found in (García Márquez et al. 2010;
García Márquez et al. 2007) papers. Moreover, failure
prognostics approaches which were proposed for discrete
systems can be found in (Ammour et al. 2017; Yin 2017).
As been summarized in the previous paragraph, the point
machine health assessment is an important task to increase
reliability and safety in railway transportation and very
challenging. This could be due to the insufficient data,
unavailable failure modes which develop in long-period of
time (Eker et al. 2011) and nonlinear system degradation
behavior that makes constructing trendable system HIs hard, if
not impossible. The sliding chair plates of the point machine
can experience different degradation states (i.e. healthy,
moderate and severe states) throughout their lifespan before
the complete failure. To forecast the future degradation
behavior of the sliding chair plates, it is important to detect a
change-point(s) that the machine falls into a faulty state from
healthy state. In practice, it is important to note that there can
be more than one changing point (see Fig. 1) due to some
physical phenomena. In this case, each degradation level
(D1,2,3,4 in Fig. 1) should be evaluated (i.e. testing the failure
severity criteria) differently, and the prognostics should be
triggered when the machine switches to a severe health state.
D4
D3
Degradation
D2
D1
Cycle
Fig. 1. Machine health state changes.
209
209
Therefore, a machine degradation-levels should be properly
assessed to detect an incipient fault before triggering a
prognostics algorithm. This paper presents a MDA and failure
prognostics methodology for point machine sliding chair
degradation. In the offline phase of the proposed methodology,
different statistical HIs are extracted from in-field condition
monitoring (CM) data and selected by filter based HI selection,
utilizing monotonicity and similarity statistics. Then, a double
exponential degradation model is built and the parameters are
estimated using the selected HI. In the online phase, an
unsupervised technique, which is k-means, is used to detect the
changing point(s) by grouping newly received HI data, before
the prognostics. Finally, the prognostics model is triggered to
predict the RUL. As new data points are available, the model
parameters are re-estimated and the component RUL is
predicted iteratively. The main contributions of this work,
compared to the reviewed papers are 1) HI selection by two
step intraclass and interclass feature analysis using filter
methods, 2) unsupervised change-point detection and 3) RUL
prediction based on online prognostics model update by
windowing approach.
The paper is organized as follows: Section 2 explains the
proposed methodology steps. Section 3 presents the sliding
chair degradation modeling and the experimental rig setup.
The results are presented in Section 4. Section 5 concludes the
paper.
2. METHODOLOGY
The proposed methodology consists of offline and online
phases. In the offline phase, the health indicator construction
and the degradation model definition is presented. The online
phase includes the clustering based change-point detection and
the RUL prediction steps. The general scheme of the proposed
methodology is depicted in Fig. 2.
2.1 Health Indicator Extraction and Selection
A HI extraction can be defined as an extraction of useful and
important hidden information from raw data that indicates
health state transitions in a system degradation. In this paper,
time-domain based HIs such as root-mean-square (rms),
kurtosis, skewness, crest factor (crfactor), standard deviation
(stdev) and peak-to-peak (p2p) are extracted. The HI selection
is carried out in two steps. The HIs which have a higher
monotonicity value than the calculated sample mean are
selected first in step 1 (intraclass analysis). In step 2 (interclass
analysis), a similarity matrix is constructed from the selected
HIs using the Euclidean distance. The best HI is then selected
from the similarity matrix mean which has a minimum
distance value. In the intraclass selection, the most trendable
HIs are selected and in the interclass selection, the most
representative HI is selected among the trendable HIs. The
monotonicity is calculated using equation (1) and the
Euclidean distance is calculated using equation (2). The
similarity matrix (𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠) is constructed as indicated in
equation (3). The most representative HI is selected by using
equation (4).
𝑑𝑑 𝑑𝑑
# >0 # <0
𝑀𝑀𝑖𝑖 = (| − |)
𝑑𝑑𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝑖𝑖 𝑑𝑑𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝑖𝑖
(1)
𝑛𝑛−1 𝑛𝑛−1
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Physical System HI Construction Degradation Model Definition

𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻1
Offline Phase

𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻(𝑡𝑡) =
Measurements
[ ⋮ ] = 𝑆𝑆(𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻) = 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝑚𝑚 𝛼𝛼 × 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒(𝛽𝛽 × 𝑡𝑡) + 𝛿𝛿 × 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒(𝛾𝛾 × 𝑡𝑡)
𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝑛𝑛 where m ≤ n

Sensors
Degradation-level Assessment by K-means Clustering
Failure Prognostics
In-situ Health Indicator Yes Prediction
Monitoring
Change [trigger]
Point?
Update Model as New
Online Phase

Data Available
No

Fault Diagnostics EOL ≤

Fault Isolation, Identification, Classification

RUL

Fig. 2. Two-step degradation-level assessment and failure prognostics methodology scheme.

where 𝑀𝑀𝑖𝑖 is the monotonicity value for the 𝑖𝑖 𝑡𝑡ℎ HI (𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝑖𝑖 ). The
absolute value of the difference between number of positive
(# > 0) and negative derivatives (#
𝑑𝑑 𝑑𝑑
< 0) gives the
𝑑𝑑𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝑖𝑖
monotonicity value. A HI with the higher monotonicity
indicates the better degradation with an increasing/decreasing
trend.
𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑(𝑝𝑝, 𝑞𝑞) = √∑𝑁𝑁
𝑖𝑖=1(𝑝𝑝𝑖𝑖 − 𝑞𝑞𝑖𝑖 )
2
2 (2)
where 𝑁𝑁 is the length of the given HIs 𝑝𝑝 and 𝑞𝑞.
𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑(ℎ1 ℎ1 ) ⋯ 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑(ℎ1 ℎ𝑀𝑀 )
𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 = [ ⋮ ⋱ ⋮ ]
𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑(ℎ𝑀𝑀 ℎ1 ) ⋯ 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑(ℎ𝑀𝑀 ℎ𝑀𝑀 ) 𝑀𝑀×𝑀𝑀
𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏𝑏 = min(𝜇𝜇(𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠))
where 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑(ℎ1 ℎ𝑀𝑀 ) is the distance value between the health
indicators ℎ1 and ℎ𝑀𝑀 from the data pool with size 𝑀𝑀 and 𝜇𝜇 is
the similarity mean value.
2.2 Clustering based Degradation-level Assessment
A k-means (Lloyd 1982) unsupervised machine learning
technique is adopted in this paper in MDA for change-point(s)
detection.
The k-means groups a given X dataset (𝑋𝑋 = 𝑥𝑥1 , 𝑥𝑥2 … 𝑥𝑥𝑛𝑛 ) into
C (𝐶𝐶 = 𝐶𝐶1 , 𝐶𝐶 … 𝐶𝐶𝑘𝑘 ) clusters. The similarity degree between
the cluster center 𝜇𝜇𝑖𝑖 and the data points is based on an
Euclidean distance, where 𝑖𝑖 = 1, 2, … 𝐶𝐶. The goal is to
minimize the objective function expressed by:
𝑛𝑛 𝐶𝐶
2
𝐽𝐽(𝜇𝜇, 𝑢𝑢) = ∑ ∑ 𝑢𝑢𝑘𝑘,𝑗𝑗 ‖𝑥𝑥𝑗𝑗 − 𝜇𝜇𝑘𝑘 ‖
𝑗𝑗=1 𝑘𝑘=1
where 𝑢𝑢𝑘𝑘,𝑗𝑗 ∈ {0,1} is the membership value of the data point
𝑥𝑥𝑗𝑗 to the cluster 𝐶𝐶𝑘𝑘 . The best partition number can be identified
by using cluster validity techniques (Maulik &
Bandyopadhyay 2002). In this paper, well-known within
cluster consistency evaluation technique, which is Silhouette
(Rousseeuw 1987) evaluation, is adopted for cluster
validation.
𝑑𝑑𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻𝑖𝑖 2.3 Degradation Model for Failure Prognostics
First, the degradation trend of the selected HI is extracted by
using a moving average noise filtration technique before the
curve fitting step. In this research, a double exponential
function, which was proposed in (Skima et al. 2016), is
adopted in the sliding chair degradation modeling due to its
good degradation representability as given in (6).
𝑓𝑓(𝑡𝑡)𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻 = 𝛼𝛼 × 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒(𝛽𝛽 × 𝑡𝑡) + 𝛿𝛿 × 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒(𝛾𝛾 × 𝑡𝑡) (6)
where 𝑓𝑓(𝑡𝑡)𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻 is the model output at time 𝑡𝑡 and 𝛼𝛼, 𝛽𝛽, 𝛿𝛿, 𝛾𝛾 are the
(3)
model parameters. The degradation model parameters are
(4)
estimated in the offline phase. In the online phase, after the
detection of changing point, failure prognostics is triggered to
predict the RUL of the sliding chairs. As new data values are
available, the model parameters are re-estimated and the
system RUL is predicted iteratively until the end-of-life (EOL)
threshold is reached. To update the exponential model
parameters in the online phase, it is obligatory to have
sufficient amount of data points. In this study, the model
update is performed after each 5 and 10 time stamps. The RUL
prediction accuracy (𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃) is calculated by using equation (7)
(Tobon-Mejia et al. 2012).
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 =
1
∑𝐵𝐵𝑏𝑏=1 −exp |𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑟𝑟 (𝑏𝑏) − 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑒𝑒 (𝑏𝑏)|⁄𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑝𝑝 (𝑏𝑏)
(7)
𝐵𝐵
where 𝐵𝐵 is the number of data point used in RUL prediction.
For the best prediction performance, the 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 produces 1 and
(5) 0 for the worst.
3. EXPERIMENTAL SETUP AND DATA COLLECTION
Since the point machines are highly reliable systems, the
degradation of their components can take a long period of time
(Gebraeel, Elwany, & Pan 2009), which makes failure
prognostics very hard. To overcome this problem, the sliding

210
IFAC SAFEPROCESS 2018
Warsaw, Poland, August 29-31, 2018 Vepa Atamuradov et al. / IFAC PapersOnLine 51-24 (2018) 208–213 211

chair degradation is simulated by an accelerated aging were normalized between [0,1]. The calculated interclass
procedure on the real system. The sliding chair plates support similarity values for the given HIs are presented in Table 1.
the point machines to move the rail blades from normal-to- Based on the proposed filter health indicator selection method,
reverse and reverse-to-normal positions. There were totally 12
Railway Turnout System
lubricated (i.e. healthy) sliding chair plates on the turnout
system. The first sliding chair failure state was generated by
contaminating the farthest 10th, 11th and 12th plates. The second
faulty state was acquired by contaminating the 9th farthest Sliding chair plates
plate. By adding a new contaminated plate to the faulty group,
we generated a complete point machine sliding chair failure.
There are totally 10 different health states (10 samples/health Point Machine
state) which were generated by the accelerated aging. The
resistive force sensory data has been investigated in this
research due to good degradation representation property
(Camci et al. 2016; Ardakani et al. 2012). An electro-
Contaminated Lubricated
mechanical point machine, an installed force sensor and the
sliding chair plates which were investigated in this current Fig. 4. Turnout system and sliding-chair degradation
research, are depicted in Fig. 3. The real turnout system and simulation.
the sliding chair degradation modeling are shown in Fig. 4.

c) Force (J)
The resistive force time series and one sample from each

b) Force (J)
healthy and faulty states of the sliding chair degradation are
depicted in Fig. 5.
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
Time (ms) Time (ms)
The point machine resistive force measurements went through
HI extraction step to reveal the sliding chair plate degradation
patterns. Before calculating the monotonicity values, the
a) Force (J)

extracted HIs should be smoothed. The extracted and

smoothed HIs by using Moving Average are shown in Fig. 6.
As depicted in Fig. 6, the extracted descriptive statistics gave
different degradation patterns, where some of them are not
correlated with the sliding chair degradation. The extracted
HIs went through two- steps: intraclass and interclass HI Time (ms) Sample
selection to select the best HI representing the sliding chair
failure propagation, as it was explained in section 2. The Fig. 5. a) Force time series and b) healthy, c) faulty data
calculated monotonicity values of the given HIs are shown in samples for sliding chair degradation.
Fig. 7. The rms, stdev and p2p have been selected as the most
trendable indicators from the intraclass selection, and fed into
the interclass selection for the best HI selection. Before
skewness

rms

building the similarity matrix (equation (3)), the selected HIs

c) Sliding chair plates

Cycle Cycle
kurtosis

stdev

b) Force sensor

Cycle Cycle
crfactor

p2p

a) Point Machine
Cycle Cycle
Fig. 3. a) Point machine b) installed force sensor and c)
sliding chair plates. Fig. 6. Extracted HIs from force measurements.

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and 0.81 using the equation (7). Hence, using a shorter window
Monotonicity values size in model updating could be more efficient for RUL
prediction of critical systems to be used in post-prognostics
decision making.
Table 2. Estimated degradation model parameters.
Parameters a b c d R2
Values 0.097 -0.038 0.018 0.038 0.99

Level-1(healthy)
Health indicators
Fig. 7. Calculated monotonicity values for a given HIs.

stdev
Table 1. Similarity matrix for selected HIs.
rms stdev p2p
rms 0 0.34 0.75 Level-2
stdev 0.34 0 0.50 (faulty)
p2p 0.75 0.50 0
Average 0.54 0.42 0.62 Cycle
stdev has been selected as the best representative and the most Fig. 8. Change-point detection results using k-means.
supported HI with minimum distance for the sliding chair
degradation. It is also important to note that the selected stdev
has the highest monotonicity value (see Fig. 7) compared to RULr
the others, which proves the efficiency of the proposed filter RULp
method for failure prognostics. The proposed exponential
Health indicator

degradation model was fitted to stdev to estimate the model

parameters in the offline phase. The estimated degradation
model parameters obtained by curve fitting and the goodness Learning
of fit (R2) are given in Table 2.
After the degradation model definition in the offline step, the Prediction
selected HI went through the k-means based change-point
detection to trigger failure prognostics for RUL prediction in CP71
the online phase. The cluster number was optimized by using
Silhouette validation. The maximum Silhouette value refers to Cycle
the best cluster number. The k-means has efficiently clustered Fig. 9. RUL prediction (RULr – real and RULp – predicted)
the given HI into two degradation-levels. The change-point after the change-point detection (CP71).
detection result is depicted in Fig. 8. The first level
corresponds to the healthy state and the second level to the
failure state. The last index (cycle # 71) of the 1st degradation-
level is the changing point in the sliding chair degradation,
which indicates the incipient failure. The change-point is used
to launch the RUL prediction. The RUL prediction results are
RUL

shown in Fig. 9. After the first trigger, the model parameters

are not updated until the new data values are available. In this
study, the waiting time was performed using two different
window sizes. The purpose was to check the accuracy of the
prognostics model with a given amount of data and to optimize
the RUL prediction interval for better maintenance planning in
machine condition monitoring. The RUL prediction results Prediction horizon
using window length 5 (W-5) and 10 (W-10) for the model
update is given in Fig. 10. As seen from Fig. 10, the W-10 Fig. 10. RUL prediction results using window sizes a) five
converged to the real RUL faster than the W-5 in its first (W-5) and b) ten (W-10).
update process. But using a longer window size can be a 5. CONCLUSIONS
disadvantage and can affect maintenance planning negatively,
especially for critical components such as sliding chairs. In this paper, a degradation-level assessment and an online
Despite its computational complexity, the W-5 based model prognostics approach were proposed for a point machine
updating is more precise than the W-10. The RUL prediction sliding chair monitoring. The two-step filter method was
performances for W-5 and for W-10 were calculated as 0.90 proposed for HI extraction and selection. A degradation-level

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assessment based on the k-means was performed to detect
change(s) in the component health state transitions. The k-
means could only detect the bigger change in the health state
but was less sensitive to smaller changes in failure
propagation, which might mislead to late RUL predictions.
The data-driven based prognostics model was developed and
the RUL of the system was predicted using two different time
stamps and the results were compared.
As a future work, we plan to utilize different change-point
detection algorithms which are more sensitive to smaller
changes and to develop prognostics approach based on failure
severity criteria for systems experiencing different health state
transitions (i.e. healthy, moderate, severe, etc.).
6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research was supported by a grant from ENIT, Production
Engineering Laboratory (LGP), funded by ALSTOM. Point
machine degradation datasets were taken from the project #
108M275, which was supported by The Scientific and
Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK).
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