Professional Documents
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12314
REVIEW ARTICLE
James D. Beck1 | Kamaira Philips2 | Kevin Moss2 | Kimon Divaris3 | Thiago Morelli1 |
Steven Offenbacher1
1
Division of Comprehensive Oral Health, Adams School of Dentistry, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
2
Division of Oral and Craniofacial Health Sciences, Adams School of Dentistry, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
3
Division of Pediatric and Public Health, Adams School of Dentistry, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
Correspondence
James D. Beck, Division of Comprehensive Oral Health, Adams School of Dentistry, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA.
Email: james_beck@unc.edu
Funding information
NIH/NIDCR, Grant/Award Number: R01‐DE021418, R01‐DE021986, U01‐DE025046 and R01‐DE023836; NIH/NCRR, Grant/Award Number: UL1‐
TR001111; University of North Carolina; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Grant/Award Number: HHSN268201100005C, HHSN268201100006C,
HHSN268201100007C, HHSN268201100008C, HHSN268201100009C, HHSN268201100010C, HHSN268201100011C and HHSN268201100012C
268 | © 2019 John Wiley & Sons A/S. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/prd Periodontology 2000. 2020;82:268–285.
Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd
BECK et al. | 269
F I G U R E 1 Traditional disease classifications. A, The traditional method where experts draw one or more lines in the disease continuum to
create disease classifications. B, A computer model of overlapping clusters of individuals who could be in more than one disease classification
BECK et al. | 271
In addition, traditional definitions of disease chosen by experts they are similar to each other (homogeneous) with respect to
(ie, lines in the sand) can be successful at finding associations where these observed variables. Individuals with the highest posterior
we know enough to describe the risk exposure and disease outcome, membership probability of belonging within the set of responses
but can be limited where the exposure or outcome is not well‐de‐ for that case are classified into that class. 32 Posterior probability is
fined. Clinical data can be used to search for “patterns in the sand” the probability of something occurring given other factors in the
instead of experts predefining “lines in the sand”. model. 33
The methods used to create data‐informed diagnostic groups
are generally referred to as unsupervised learning (ie, patterns
3.2 | Why is latent class analysis important?
in the sand) in contrast to the more traditional supervised learn‐
ing, where experts in the field draw “lines in the sand” to create This approach is important because: (a) latent class analysis can
categories of health and disease (Figure 1A). Another type of su‐ take into account multiple characteristics of the phenotype, rather
pervised learning is creating clusters of individuals based on their than just one or two, as in other approaches; (b) latent class analy‐
disease and personal characteristics, eg, principal component anal‐ sis classification is based on individuals who are placed together
ysis (Figure 1B). This method creates different groups, but they are in mutually exclusive classes based on multiple, similar character‐
overlapping, which means that some individuals can be in more than istics, rather than in predefined groups; (c) the individuals in each
one group. In addition, the analyses are often carried out on a group class are more homogeneous than in most other approaches; (d)
basis and the level of risk is applied to everyone in that group. This latent class analysis modeling creates latent (hidden) classes that
is problematic if the groups are created based on a small number of may not be obvious from looking at the clinical signs themselves;
disease and personal characteristics related to disease progression. and (e) the probability of being placed in a specific class based on
If this occurs, some individuals will receive treatment that is not characteristics is extremely high, eg, misclassification is extremely
required and others may not respond to the treatment protocol. low. 2
The unsupervised approach is supported by recent results indi‐
cating that long‐recognized diseases, such as asthma and heart fail‐
3.2.1 | Examples of medical studies using latent
ure, are not really single entities, but are collections of many different
class analysis
phenotypes that may or may not coincide with historical disease
boundaries. 29-31 So, while supervised learning is good at finding pat‐ Latent class analysis has been used to identify phenotypes or sub‐
terns that explain phenotypes we know enough to label in advance, groups of similar patients in order to modify treatment in several
it is unsuited to the scenario in which we don’t know enough to label areas of medicine, including cancer, arthritis, psoriasis, psychol‐
the phenotypes, and we wish to discover them from the data. 28 ogy, and cardiovascular health. For example, Ferrat et al34 con‐
ducted a study of older adults in order to identify profiles that
would help physicians better select cancer treatments and other
3 | TH E I M P O RTA N C E O F L ATE NT C L A S S geriatric interventions. They found four distinct profiles in these
A N A LYS I S FO R FAC I LITATI N G PR EC I S I O N patients. 34 Another study conducted a latent class analysis of 227
O R A L H E A LTH A N D TR E ATM E NT older women with self‐reported arthritis. 35 Classes of women
were identified based on the multidimensional nature of their pain
There are several types of statistical models that would fit under experience (eg, sensory, affective, and cognitive dimensions). 35 De
the category of unsupervised learning. One such application is deep Luca et al35 found three distinct subgroups of pain profile. Women
learning, a class of machine learning algorithms based on neural net‐ had very different experiences of pain and class membership im‐
works. 27 Another method is K‐means clustering, based on vectors. pacted significantly on health‐related quality of life. 35 These pre‐
Latent class analysis is a type of model that finds latent (“hidden”) liminary findings provide a stronger understanding of the profiles
homogeneous classes of individuals based on input variables accord‐ of pain and may contribute to the development of tailored treat‐
ing to their maximum likelihood class membership. ment options in arthritis. 35
Latent class analysis has also been used to categorize patients
with psoriasis. Psoriasis is associated with substantial comorbidity.
3.1 | What is latent class analysis?
An understanding of these comorbidity patterns can help to pro‐
Latent class analysis is a statistical model of unsupervised learn‐ mote better care of patients with psoriasis. Latent class analysis was
ing that is rather new to dentistry, but has been used in medicine used to identify psoriasis comorbidity patterns empirically in a na‐
and other disciplines for some time. The fundamental assumption tionwide sample of 110 729 incident cases of psoriasis (2002‐2012)
underlying latent class models is that of local independence, which from the National Health Insurance database in Taiwan.36
states that objects (ie, individuals, cases) in the same latent class Additionally, latent class analysis has been used in patients
share a common joint probability distribution among the observed with psychological depression after myocardial infarction.37 This
variables. As individuals in the same latent class (cluster) cannot be investigation focused on whether different patterns of depressive
distinguished from each other based on their observed responses, symptoms after myocardial infarction can be identified and their
272 | BECK et al.
associations with cardiac events determined. Five distinct patterns patient?” the thought needs to be “What is this patient's risk for dis‐
were found: no depressive symptoms (56.4%), mild depressive symp‐ ease progression, tooth loss, or poor treatment response?”
toms (25.7%), moderate and increasing depressive symptoms (9.3%),
significant but decreasing depressive symptoms (4.6%), and signif‐
4.3 | Advantages of precision dentistry
icant and increasing depressive symptoms (4.0%).37 Latent class
analysis revealed a subgroup of depressed subjects postmyocardial There are many advantages of using precision dentistry as a custom
infarction who developed significant ongoing depressive symptoms dental management model. According to Bartold,38 it aligns the field
and exhibited an increasing risk of new cardiac events. 37
This anal‐ of dentistry with current medical practice, avoiding a tendency to
ysis led researchers to question the effects of antidepressant treat‐ administer an “average” treatment for all patients with a certain con‐
ment on cardiac prognosis. dition. Instead, it provides patient‐centered treatment that will prob‐
ably be cost‐effective as well as improving health outcomes. 26,38
According to Schwendicke,30 this “tailored dentistry” is not only ad‐
4 | PR EC I S I O N O R A L H E A LTH/D E NTI S TRY
vantageous, but it is necessary for the future of dentistry. 30
characteristics into groups that have known risks for disease and group of people and places each individual into mutually exclusive
disease progression, allowing clinicians to select a more specific classes based on their characteristics, as illustrated in Figure 2. To
treatment plan for that individual, and hopefully improve clinical accomplish this, latent class analysis takes a different approach to
outcomes. classification (eg, creating multidimensional disease patterns using a
Several tools are being developed and proposed to classify an in‐ data‐driven, probabilistic modeling approach) than traditional meth‐
dividual's risk for developing periodontal disease. In this section we ods of predefining disease classification (eg, drawing lines in the
will compare and contrast these tools and how they could help to sand). The characteristics of supervised and unsupervised learning
achieve a precision approach to oral health. One of these approaches models were discussed in Section 2.6.
is the World Workshop Model1; the other is the Periodontal Profile
Class model.2 The World Workshop Model and the Periodontal Profile
5.2.1 | Development of Periodontal Profile Class,
Class model have common objectives. The World Workshop Model
Tooth Profile Class, and the Index of Periodontal Risk
represents a supervised learning approach, whereas the Periodontal
Profile Class model is representative of an unsupervised model. Our in‐ An agnostic, data‐based approach to defining classes of periodon‐
terest in comparing the two models is because they use supervised and tal conditions has been developed, which includes the spectrum
unsupervised methods to arrive at stages and grades. This compari‐ of clinical presentations of health and disease, as well as missing
son does not focus on the models themselves but on the two different teeth. Seven classes of periodontal disease were identified using
methods that are used to derive stages and grades. latent class analysis. They included three new classes associated
with mild tooth loss and very high gingival index scores, moderate
tooth loss with reduced periodontium, and severe tooth loss. This
5.1 | World Workshop Model
group of seven periodontal disease conditions was designated
As part of the World Workshop on Periodontal Disease Classification, as the “Periodontal Profile Classes” and the individual diagno‐
1
a seminal article by Tonetti et al introduced a multidimensional ses were healthy, mild disease, high gingival inflammation, tooth
staging and grading system as a framework for reclassifying chronic loss, moderate (posterior) disease, severe tooth loss, and severe
periodontitis. This schema is similar to the method used in oncol‐ disease. 2
ogy or rheumatology, in which “staging” is based on the severity of A similar classification based on the teeth within each indi‐
disease and the complexity of case management, whereas “grading” vidual (Tooth Profile Class) was also derived using latent class
concerns biological features, such as the predicted rate of disease analysis. 2 Fundamentally, the model builds on seven types of peri‐
progression, which also relates to the risk of tooth loss and becom‐ odontal status seen around individual teeth, as determined ag‐
ing edentulous. Furthermore, grading should reflect the impact of nostically, plus missing teeth. These seven Tooth Profile Classes
person‐level risk factors and potential threats to general health. include teeth that are: healthy, have recession, have crowns, have
Specifically, the authors proposed a new nosologic structure (ie, a high gingival index, have interproximal attachment loss, have a
classification of diseases) that included distinct classes of disease reduced periodontium, and have severe disease (deep pockets and
that reflect a diagnosis. These classes are referred to as stages, but attachment loss). 2
there is also a designation of the grade of disease for each stage,
which reflects the risk of tooth loss as well as other risk factors, such
Healthy
as smoking and diabetes. Furthermore, the proposed staging and
grading was developed with the requirement that it should reflect
prognosis, as well as the complexity of treatment needs, including
recommendations for referral if needed to assist the clinician in case
Mild/Moderate
management.
This novel system, which represents an example of a supervised
learning model, has great potential for disease classification that
could support the concept of precision dentistry, as it uses multiple
variables to represent the phenotype and requires that the provider
considers prognosis as well as risk for disease progression and tooth
loss. The World Workshop Model is an important next step to help
enable precision dentistry.
Severe Disease
5.2 | Periodontal Profile Class model
F I G U R E 2 A newer method for disease classification. Latent
The Periodontal Profile Class model, introduced in 20172, is an ex‐
class analysis or deep learning models are used to place individuals
ample of an unsupervised learning model that uses a classification with similar characteristics related to the disease in mutually
approach called latent class analysis. Latent class analysis takes a exclusive classes on an agnostic basis
274 | BECK et al.
The Index of Periodontal Risk incorporates the individual pa‐ The transition to harmonize with the World Workshop Model
tient Periodontal Profile Class and the Tooth Profile Class, and a nomenclature of stages and grades is briefly described. The seven
longitudinal database of tooth loss and attachment loss, to create Periodontal Profile Class disease states became stages I‐VII and
a point estimate of future disease risk for each individual patient. 2 the grades of disease were defined using the following Index of
The 10‐year tooth loss data from the dental Atherosclerosis Risk In Periodontal Risk cut‐off‐values: grade A = Index of Periodontal
Communities study are used to compute the risk of tooth loss for Risk < 10; grade B = Index of Periodontal Risk 10 to < 30; grade
each Tooth Profile Class within each Periodontal Profile Class as‐ C = Index of Periodontal Risk ≥ 30. Stages were assigned first and
signment. A composite risk score for each individual is then calcu‐ then, using the Index of Periodontal Risk as a risk indicator, grades
lated based on tooth loss risks; this continuous score is the Index were assigned within each stage. For clarity, the adaptation of
of Periodontal Risk (range 4‐46). The analytical approach used to Periodontal Profile Class nomenclature1,2,33 to the World Workshop
calculate the Index of Periodontal Risk is based on a 7 × 7 table Model stages and grades is shown in Figure 3. Stages are grouped to
(Periodontal Profile Class × Tooth Profile Class) of predicted prob‐ show four stages of periodontal status among those with a largely
abilities for 10‐year tooth loss. First, each participant is assigned to intact dentition (healthy/incidental, mild disease, moderate disease,
one of the seven Periodontal Profile Classes and then each tooth and severe disease) and three stages that accommodate patterns of
is classified to one of the seven Tooth Profile Classes. The Index of tooth loss, severe inflammation, and a reduced periodontium (mild
Periodontal Risk is then calculated as the mean predicted probability tooth loss/high gingival inflammation, moderate tooth loss/reduced
for 10‐year tooth loss across all teeth present for each individual. periodontium, and severe tooth loss). The healthy/incidental label
The development of the Index of Periodontal Risk includes tradi‐ for stage I was created because the vast majority of individuals in
tional risk factors for periodontal disease, such as age, gender, race, this group have healthy teeth and gingiva, but some may also have
diabetes, and smoking status. a few pockets or sites with ≥3 mm clinical attachment loss a result
Here we present details of the original Periodontal Profile Class‐ of past inflammation or third molar extractions, or some other eti‐
related studies and, where appropriate, reference these articles. The ology.45 Lang and Bartold45 state that, “thus, probing pocket depth
probabilities of being assigned to a particular Periodontal Profile Class or probing attachment levels alone should not be used as evidence
or Tooth Profile Class are extremely high. The posterior probabilities of gingival health or disease.45 They must be considered in conjunc‐
(the conditional probability when all other variables are considered) tion with other important clinical parameters such as bleeding on
of being assigned to a particular Periodontal Profile Class range from probing, as well as modifying and predisposing factors.”45 The risk
0.967 for mild disease to 1.00 for severe tooth loss. The posterior for tooth loss or disease progression is the lowest of all the stages.
probabilities for assignment to a particular Tooth Profile Class range Importantly, classifications such as periodontitis associated with
from 0.823 for gingival inflammation to 0.953 for recession.2 systemic disease, eg, diabetes, were not used, but diabetes was con‐
sidered a subject‐level risk for a higher Index of Periodontal Risk and
a higher grade assignment on an individual basis, such as a propen‐
5.2.2 | Nomenclature for stages and grades
sity risk score, which assigns risk at an individual level rather than
The aim of an unsupervised learning system is to place individuals adjusting the overall population risk estimates. Furthermore, the
into mutually independent, homogeneous risk groups in relation agnostic latent class analysis assignments had no a priori assump‐
to a disease or a condition. Once the groups are established, it tions of health or gingivitis, but rather were applied to the entire
does not matter what the group is called. A specific nomenclature Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities test population to allow the
was used during the development of the Periodontal Profile Class algorithm to assign traits that best described stage and grade strata.
1,2,33,39,44
model. The seven groups were first labeled as groups A
to G. As periodontal disease has characteristics not usually found
5.2.3 | World Workshop Model grades
in a chronic disease (multiple teeth and sites that can have dif‐
ferent patterns of disease or disease progression within an indi‐ The World Workshop Model states that after the stage is estab‐
vidual), each group was labeled based on the patterns of different lished for a patient, the grade should be established based on an
clinical conditions (ranging from healthy to severe disease) in the estimate of periodontitis progression. They suggest that clinicians
teeth of individuals in each group. Those labels were healthy, mild, should start with the assumption that the patient is grade B and then
high gingival index, tooth loss, posterior disease, high tooth loss, look for evidence that would modify that assumption. The first step
and severe disease. Although some of these labels sound like tra‐ is to look at longitudinal evidence of worsening clinical attachment
ditional periodontal disease categories, they do not contain all loss or radiographic bone loss (percentage bone loss/age) over a 5‐
of the same individuals as a similar sounding traditional category year period. If there is no progression over 5 years, the individual is
because they were developed with a different objective, which classified as grade A; if there is progression < 2 mm over 5 years they
was to place individuals into groups with a similar risk for tooth are classified as grade B; if the progression is ≥2 mm over 5 years the
loss. Therefore, it was relatively simple to change the original individual is classified as grade C. If these direct measures are not
Periodontal Profile Class categories to be consistent with stages available, the clinician can use indirect measures, such as percent‐
and grades (Figure 3). age bone loss/age or the relationship between the level of biofilm
BECK et al. | 275
deposits and the level of destruction. Once the grade level is estab‐ they would not be seeing a periodontist. Periodontitis is defined as
lished the clinician should consider known risk factors, specifically “Interdental clinical attachment loss detectable at ≥2 non‐adjacent
whether the individual smokes, and if so, the number of cigarettes teeth, or buccal or oral clinical attachment loss ≥3 mm with pocket‐
per day. The other risk factor is having diabetes and, if they do, ing >3 mm is detectable at ≥2 teeth.”1
HbA1c levels. The clinician can also consider any systemic risk as a Dental Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities data were applied
result of periodontitis that can be inferred from high sensitivity C‐re‐ to the World Workshop Model in order to create the distribution of
active protein levels. Other biomarkers that are indicators of clinical participants for each stage according to the World Workshop Model
attachment loss/bone loss can also be useful. The patient data used specifications. In the study sample, everyone met the criteria for
to model World Workshop Model grades do not contain longitudinal periodontitis, except for four individuals who only had one tooth.
measures of clinical attachment loss or radiographic bone loss, nor The initial stage should be determined using the clinical attachment
HbA1c information. There was information on biofilm deposits and level; if this is not available, then radiographic bone loss should be
clinical attachment loss measures, as well as high sensitivity C‐reac‐ used.
tive protein, together with information on smoking and intensity of As indicated in Table 1, 6% of the participants were classified
smoking. However, as the primary direct evidence required to cre‐ as stage I, 47% were stage II, 47% were stage III, and 0% were
ate World Workshop Model grades was not available, grades are not classified as stage IV using clinical attachment loss as the clinical
presented. However, data are available for Periodontal Profile Class‐ measure. It is possible that a younger population would have more
derived stages and grades. Therefore, the reader can evaluate how individuals in stage I. No participants were classified as stage IV
well the World Workshop Model stages and grades system relates to because stages III and IV have the same criterion for clinical at‐
the risk of tooth loss as a result of periodontal disease. tachment loss of ≥5 mm. All participants were placed in stage III
until additional criteria were evaluated to determine who met the
stage IV criteria.
6 | CO M PA R I N G WO R LD WO R K S H O P
M O D E L A N D PE R I O D O NTA L PRO FI LE
C L A S S S TAG E S A N D G R A D E S 6.2 | What proportion of people move to a different
stage based on World Workshop Model measures of
6.1 | What proportion of people fall into each stage complexity?
when using the World Workshop Model?
The World Workshop Model measures of complexity include infor‐
The instructions for the World Workshop Model indicate that their mation on tooth loss that can be attributed primarily to periodonti‐
stages and grades assume that everyone has periodontitis, otherwise tis, which if available, may modify the stage definition, even in the
276 | BECK et al.
absence of complexity factors. Complexity factors may move the present. However, in general, it only takes one complexity factor to
stage to a higher level, for example furcation II or furcation III would move the diagnosis to a higher stage. It should be emphasized that
move to either stage III or stage IV irrespective of clinical attachment these case definitions are guidelines that should be applied using
loss. The distinction between stage III and stage IV is primarily based sound clinical judgment to arrive at the most appropriate clinical
on complexity factors. For example, a high level of tooth mobility diagnosis. For post‐treatment patients, clinical attachment loss and
and/or posterior bite collapse would indicate a stage IV diagnosis. radiographic bone loss are still the primary stage determinants. If
For any given case, only some, not all, complexity factors may be a stage‐moving complexity factor(s) is eliminated by treatment, the
TA B L E 1 Classification of dental Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities participants according to the World Workshop Model (N = 6793)a
World Workshop Model periodontitis stage Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV
stage should not retrogress to a lower stage, as the original stage concept of stages does represent differences between regular and
complexity factor should always be considered in maintenance episodic dental attenders.
phase management.
Table 1 shows that there is stage modification from tooth loss as
6.3 | Pattern of clinical measures for 10‐year
a result of periodontal disease. For those classified as stage I, <1%
tooth loss
moved to stage III and 39% moved to stage IV. For those in stage II,
1% moved to stage III and 24% moved to stage IV. For those initially
6.3.1 | World Workshop Model
classified as stage III, 38% moved to stage IV as a result of tooth loss.
Thus, 2136 individuals moved from stage III to stage IV based on hav‐ Figure 4A shows the risk for 10‐year tooth loss associated with each
ing both clinical attachment loss and tooth loss as a result of periodon‐ stage and the relative level of the clinical measures within stages.
tal disease. There was also stage modification as a result of probing There is a trend for all clinical measures to be higher going from
depth. For those classified as stage I, <1% moved to stage II and for stage I to stage IV. For example, attachment loss pocket depth (de‐
those originally classified as stage II, 1% moved to stage III. Thus, tooth fined as the extent of clinical attachment loss ≥ 3 mm and pocket
loss and probing depth, in addition to the initial classification based depth ≥ 4 mm) is low in stage I, increases in stage II, and is much
on interdental clinical attachment loss, modified the final classification higher in stage III. It is lower in stage IV, probably as a result of the
of individuals into stages. The consideration of tooth loss and probing greater number of missing teeth. The extent of plaque and the gingi‐
depth reduced the percentage of participants in stage I from 6% to 4% val index are greater as the stage increases, as might be expected. In
or a loss of 155 participants. The same considerations for stage II also stage III, the extent of attachment loss pocket depth and posterior
reduced the percentage of participants from 47% to 35% or a loss of disease are at their highest levels. In stage IV, the number of miss‐
996 participants. Stage III was reduced from 47% to 30% of partici‐ ing teeth, the extent of plaque, the gingival index, and the extent of
pants or a loss of 1185 participants. No participants were classified bleeding on probing are greater, but there is less posterior interproxi‐
as stage IV based on clinical attachment loss measures, but using the mal pocket depth, and attachment loss pocket depth than in stage III.
classification modified by probing depth and tooth loss, the number
of participants in stage IV increased by 2136 to include 31% of the
6.3.2 | Periodontal Profile Class system stages
participants.
Key findings: By following the instructions of Tonetti et al,1 stage Figure 4B presents the same clinical measures for the Periodontal
modification did occur as planned and the final distribution across Profile Class system stages. The patterns for stages I‐IV are some‐
stages for this population seemed reasonable. what similar. The main difference between the two classification
procedures is that missing teeth are a large component of the
World Workshop Model stage IV and the other clinical measures
6.2.1 | Does the assignment across stages differ for
are a smaller component in comparison with the Periodontal Profile
individuals who regularly visit the dentist?
Class system stage IV. Missing teeth are a small component of the
Information on individuals who visit the dentist on a regular basis Periodontal Profile Class system stage IV compared with the other
can provide a sense of disease progression and tooth loss in regular clinical measures. Periodontal Profile Class system stages V‐VII
dental attenders. The final two rows of Table 1 show the distribution have increasing levels of tooth loss. Notably, Periodontal Profile
across stages for individuals who were regular dental patients and Class system stage V includes individuals with mild tooth loss with
those who visited the dentist on an episodic basis. These data show a remarkably high amount of gingival inflammation associated with
that episodic users are less likely to be classified as stage I, II, or III and extensive gingival index scores. This is the dominant clinical trait
more likely to be classified as stage IV than regular users or for the of this stage, which notably has tooth loss that is greater than in
combined groups. Regular users are just as likely to be classified as severe periodontitis in Periodontal Profile Class system stage III.
stage I. This is probably as a result of regular users making up 73% of This group of individuals with a high gingival index has little peri‐
the total number of individuals classified as stage I. Regular users are odontal attachment loss and pocketing, but overall the gingival in‐
more likely to be classified as stage II than the group as a whole and flammation scores are very high. Interestingly, these individuals are
less likely to be classified as stage IV. Episodic users are more likely to distinct from Periodontal Profile Class stage IV (severe periodonti‐
be assigned to stages III and IV. This pattern could be due to a number tis) in that within Periodontal Profile Class stage IV, the extent of
of reasons, including that they are resistant to periodontal treatment. bleeding on probing scores are high, reflecting deeper ulceration
Key findings: As expected, there was a difference in stage dis‐ of the attachment apparatus that is more consistent with active
tribution between regular and episodic dental users, with episodic periodontitis. However, these high bleeding on probing scores are
dental users more likely to be classified as stages III and IV than much lower in the Periodontal Profile Class stage VI group, indi‐
regular users. When comparing regular dental users with the entire cating a more superficial and distinct gingival inflammation pat‐
group, the distributions among stages are quite similar, except that tern. Periodontal Profile Class stage VI is characterized as having
regular dental users are 8% more likely to be classified as stage II a moderate level of tooth loss (missing almost half their teeth) with
and 9% less likely to be classified as stage IV. This indicates that the multiple teeth exhibiting a reduced periodontium (moderate tooth
278 | BECK et al.
100 100
A B ALPD Posterior
ALPD Posterior
90 90
BOP GI BOP GI
80 80
PQ Missing
PQ Missing
70 70
60 60
50 50
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
Risk of Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV Risk of Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV Stage V Stage Vl Stage Vll
Initial Moderate Severe Advanced Healthy/Incidental Mild Moderate Severe Disease TL/Hi GI Moderate TL Severe TL
tooth loss 4% 7% 18% 25%
tooth loss 5% 11% 16% 32% 21% 27% 18%
F I G U R E 4 Mean percentage of clinical measures within each stage. A, Mean percentage of clinical measures within each World
Workshop Model stage. Stage I is initial disease, stage II is moderate disease, stage III is severe disease, and stage IV is advanced disease.
The risk of tooth loss for each stage is the probability of losing three or more teeth over a 10‐year period. B, Mean percentage of clinical
measures within each Periodontal Profile Class stage. Stage I is healthy/incidental disease, stage II is mild disease, stage III is moderate
disease, stage IV is severe disease, stage V is mild tooth loss/high gingival inflammation (TL/Hi GI), stage VI is moderate tooth loss/reduced
periodontium (Moderate TL), stage VII is severe tooth loss (Severe TL). The risk of tooth loss for each stage is the probability of losing three
or more teeth over a 10‐year period. ALPD, extent of clinical attachment loss ≥ 3 mm and pocket depth ≥ 4 mm; Posterior, percentage
of posterior teeth with ALPD; BOP, extent of bleeding on probing; GI, extent of gingival inflammation; Missing, number of missing teeth;
PQ, extent of plaque
loss/reduced periodontium). Individuals classified in stage VI are In the World Workshop Model, lower stages tended to in‐
missing an average of 24 teeth, but have lower plaque levels, bleed‐ clude fewer individuals with risk factors, whereas higher stages
ing, and gingival index scores than those in the moderate tooth loss included more individuals with risk factors (eg, older males aged
group. The severity of disease increases with increasing stage from 65+ years with diabetes and who smoke). However, the distri‐
stage V to stage VII. Individuals in stage VII typically have a pattern bution of individuals with risk factors was more complex in the
of an edentulous maxilla with only lower premolars, canines, and Periodontal Profile Class stage model. The proportion of males
incisors remaining. increased from stage I to stage IV, but the proportion of partici‐
Key findings: Patterns of clinical measures across stages I‐IV ap‐ pants older than 65 years only increased to stage III and was then
pear to be as expected for both models (see Figure 4). These trends lower in stage IV. The proportions of African‐Americans, smok‐
include: (a) a greater expression of the dominant clinical trait and ers, and those with diabetes were relatively low (generally less
(b) a higher prevalence of missing teeth with fewer healthy teeth. than 10%) in stages I and II, but the proportion of smokers was
higher in stage III. Individuals classified in stage IV, which has the
greatest risk for tooth loss, were predominately male and African‐
6.4 | Which risk factors are associated with 10‐year
American and, there were more participants with diabetes than
tooth loss within the different stages and are the
in the earlier stages. Stages V, VI, and VII, which exhibit succes‐
patterns of risk factors different between the World
sively higher levels of missing teeth, were characterized by hav‐
Workshop Model and the Periodontal Profile Class
ing higher proportions of individuals who were African‐American
stages?
(>70% in stage V). Comparing the patterns of risk factors associ‐
Although there are multiple individual characteristics that are ated with stages IV‐VII with the earlier stages, it seems that the
thought to be risk factors for tooth loss, there is some general con‐ later stages are more likely to be composed of individuals who are
sensus that smoking and diabetes are the major risk factors. There African‐American, smokers, and older.
are also demographic characteristics that are often positively asso‐ Key findings: When considering differences that occur moving
ciated with tooth loss. Three such characteristics are male gender, from stage I to stage IV (see Figure 5), there is a major trend shared
African‐American race, and increased age. As the study participants by both models – a higher prevalence of concomitant risk factors,
were a middle‐aged group, the threshold for age was set at 65 years such as smoking, age, race, gender, and diabetes. This finding would
and older. The patterns of these three demographic risk factors, be supported by the concept of stages, indicating levels of disease.
together with cigarette smoking and diabetes status, are shown in The Periodontal Profile Class stages that already have tooth loss (V,
Figure 5A,B for the World Workshop Model and the Periodontal VI, and VII) continue a pattern of increased risk of tooth loss, even though
Profile Class system stages, respectively. there are already a decreased number of teeth at risk. This bimodal
BECK et al. | 279
A 80 B 80
Male Male
AA AA
70 70
Diabetic Diabetic
Smoker Smoker
60 Age 65 60 Age 65
50 50
Percentage
Percentage
40 40
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
Risk of Stage I Stage II Stage III Stage IV Risk of Stage
Stage I I Stage II Stage III Stage IV Stage V Stage Vl Stage Vll
Initial Advanced Healthy/Incidental Mild Moderate Severe Disease TL/Hi GI Moderate TL SevereTL
tooth loss Moderate Severe tooth loss 5%
4% 7% 18% 25% 5% 11% 16% 32% 21% 27% 18%
F I G U R E 5 Percentage of participants who have risk factors for tooth loss as a result of periodontal disease. A, Percentage of participants
with risk factors for tooth loss as a result of periodontal disease by World Workshop Model stage. Risk factors are male gender, being
African‐American (AA), having diabetes, cigarette smoking, and age ≥65 years. Stage I is initial disease, stage II is moderate disease, stage III
is severe disease, and stage IV is advanced disease. The risk of tooth loss for each stage is the probability of losing three or more teeth over
a 10‐year period. B, Percentage of participants with risk factors for tooth loss as a result of periodontal disease by Periodontal Profile Class
stage. Stage I is healthy/incidental disease, stage II is mild disease, stage III is moderate disease, stage IV is severe disease, stage V is mild
tooth loss/high gingival inflammation (TL/Hi GI), stage VI is moderate tooth loss/reduced periodontium (Moderate TL), stage VII is severe
tooth loss (Severe TL). The risk of tooth loss for each stage is the probability of losing three or more teeth over a 10‐year period
Grade A 5% 6% 4% .. .. .. ..
F I G U R E 6 Risk of 10‐year tooth loss by Periodontal Profile Class stage and grade. Stage I is healthy/incidental disease, stage II is mild
disease, stage III is moderate disease, stage IV is severe disease, stage V is mild tooth loss/high gingival inflammation (TL/Hi GI), stage VI is
moderate tooth loss/reduced periodontium (Moderate TL), stage VII is severe tooth loss (Severe TL). The risk of tooth loss for each stage is
the probability of losing three or more teeth over a 10‐year period. Cells without numbers had fewer than 10 study participants. It is unlikely
that there would be participants in stages IV‐VII who would be classified as grade A or participants in stages I‐III who would be grade C
F I G U R E 7 Piedmont 65 + Dental Study: attachment loss over 3 years of ≥3 mm. A, Risk for 3‐year attachment loss by World Workshop
Model (WW17) and Periodontal Profile Class (PPC) stage (n = 363). An attachment loss increase is defined as 10% of sites increasing
by ≥3 mm. World Workshop Model stages: stage I is initial disease, stage II is moderate disease, stage III is severe disease, and stage IV
is advanced disease. Periodontal Profile Class stages: stage I is healthy/incidental disease, stage II is mild disease, stage III is moderate
disease, stage IV is severe disease, stage V is mild tooth loss/high gingival inflammation (TL/Hi GI), stage VI is moderate tooth loss/reduced
periodontium (Moderate TL), stage VII is severe tooth loss (Severe TL). B, Risk for 3‐year attachment loss by Periodontal Profile Class grade
(n = 363). The sample size was too small to present information on grade within stage. Therefore, figures for grade alone are presented. An
attachment loss increase is defined as 10% of sites increasing by ≥ 3 mm. Grade A is an Index of Periodontal Risk score < 10, grade B is an
Index of Periodontal Risk score between 10 and < 30, and grade C is an Index of Periodontal Risk score ≥ 30
patient classification, because the systemic conditions add to the IV‐VII all have increased odds of having diabetes, with individu‐
49
complexity of treatment. Previously, the Periodontal Profile Class als classified in stages IV and V having the highest odds of diabe‐
categories were shown to be associated with prevalent diabetes tes. Figure 9 is a modification of a figure in Sen et al44 and presents
and coronary heart disease, as well as high sensitivity C‐reactive the relationships between being classified into different stages
protein and interleukin‐6, which are systemic measures of inflam‐ using the World Workshop Model and the Periodontal Profile Class
39
mation often associated with systemic diseases. Figure 8 is modi‐ system and the risk of a stroke in the future. The results shown
fied from table 2 in Beck et al39 and presents the associations of the in Figure 9 are similar to those in Figure 8. Compared with stage
World Workshop Model and the Periodontal Profile Class stages I, none of the other stages convey excess risk for a stroke using
with prevalent diabetes. 39 As the Periodontal Profile Class stages the World Workshop Model approach to classification. Using the
are derived from the original Periodontal Profile Class designations, Periodontal Profile Class stage approach, compared with stage I,
it was expected that the Periodontal Profile Class stages would be all of the other stages seem to convey excess risk for a stroke. This
significantly associated with prevalent diabetes, but the relation‐ excess risk was present after adjusting for race/examination center,
ships between the World Workshop Model stages and diabetes are age, gender, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, low‐density
still unknown. Figure 8 shows that compared with individuals clas‐ lipoprotein level, smoking (three levels), pack‐years, and education
sified as World Workshop Model stage I, none of the other stages (three levels).
are significantly associated with increased odds of having diabetes. The relationships between the World Workshop Model and
A similar analysis using Periodontal Profile Class stages indicates the Periodontal Profile Class stages with a C‐reactive protein level
that although individuals classified in stages II and III do not have in the highest quartile are shown in Figure 10. Again, the World
increased odds of having diabetes, individuals classified in stages Workshop Model did not show any significant increase in odds for
BECK et al. | 281
Value
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Decreased odds Increased odds
F I G U R E 8 Odds of having prevalent diabetes according to World Workshop Model (WW17) and Periodontal Profile Class (PPC) stages.
Odds for prevalent diabetes in the dental Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities cohort are depicted as adjusted odds ratios (OR) using the
Periodontal Profile Class supervised approach (A) and the Periodontal Profile Class unsupervised approach (B). For A, stage I or initial
disease is the reference; stage II or moderate disease, stage III or severe disease, and stage IV or advanced disease are compared with stage
I. For B, Periodontal Profile Class stage I or healthy/incidental disease is the reference; stage II or mild disease, stage III or moderate disease,
stage IV or severe disease, stage V or mild tooth loss/high gingival inflammation (Mild TL/Hi GI), stage VI or moderate tooth loss/reduced
periodontium (Mod TL/Reduced), and stage VII or severe tooth loss (Severe TL) are compared with stage I. In B, odds ratios are adjusted for
race, examination center, age, gender, body mass index, smoking (three levels) and education (three levels). LCL, lower confidence limit; UCL,
upper confidence limit
having a high C‐reactive protein level according to stage and the indicate which individuals in that stage will have a stroke. The odds
pattern for the Periodontal Profile Class stages showed that stages ratios for associations between stages and prevalent diabetes and
II and III were not more likely to have high C‐reactive protein levels high C‐reactive protein levels are interesting, but they do not answer
than stage I. Stages IV‐VII had significantly greater odds for having the question as to whether individuals classified into a particular stage
high C‐reactive protein levels (see table 2 in Beck et al 39). are at greater risk of developing the systemic condition in the future.
Why does Periodontal Profile Class stage IV (periodontitis) have Longitudinal studies are needed.
a significant association with diabetes and a high C‐reactive protein Take‐home message: The unsupervised learning approach
level when the World Workshop Model stage IV does not? This is (Periodontal Profile Class stages) seems to result in stronger associa‐
probably as a result of the Periodontal Profile Class stages being tions between the periodontal phenotype and systemic diseases and
more homogeneous classifications. For example, Periodontal Profile conditions. This probably occurs because an unsupervised learning
Class stage IV contains a smaller number of missing teeth than the model produces more mutually exclusive, homogeneous groups than
World Workshop Model stage IV. Of note, individuals in Periodontal a supervised learning model.
Profile Class stage V have greater odds of having diabetes and a
high C‐reactive protein level; individuals in this stage also have an
6.8 | Supervised learning vs unsupervised learning
extensive number of sites with gingival inflammation. These excess
odds were present after adjusting for race/examination center, age, Until this point, the World Workshop Model has been compared
gender, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, low‐density li‐ with the Periodontal Profile Class model on a variety of features
poprotein level, smoking (three levels), pack‐years, and education and attributes related to enabling precision dentistry. The rea‐
(three levels). son these two models have been compared is because the World
Although the hazard ratios in Figure 9 indicate that individuals clas‐ Workshop Model represents a supervised learning model and
sified in a stage share a level of risk for incident stroke, they do not the Periodontal Profile Class model represents an unsupervised
282 | BECK et al.
Value
0 1 2 3 4
Decreased risk Increased risk
F I G U R E 9 Hazard ratios (HR) for incident stroke according to World Workshop Model (WW17) and Periodontal Profile Class (PPC)
stages. The risk for incident ischemic stroke in the dental Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities cohort is depicted as adjusted hazard ratios
using the Periodontal Profile Class supervised approach (A) and the Periodontal Profile Class unsupervised approach (B). For A, stage I or
initial disease is the reference; stage II or moderate disease, stage III or severe disease, and stage IV or advanced disease are compared with
stage I. For B, Periodontal Profile Class stage I or healthy/incidental disease is the reference; stage II or mild disease, stage III or moderate
disease, stage IV or severe disease, stage V or mild tooth loss/high gingival inflammation (Mild TL/Hi GI), stage VI or moderate tooth loss/
reduced periodontium (Mod TL/Reduced), and stage VII or severe tooth loss (Severe TL) are compared with stage I. In B, hazard ratios are
adjusted for race/center, age, gender, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, low‐density lipoprotein level, smoking (three levels),
pack‐years, education (three levels). LCL, lower confidence limit; UCL, upper confidence limit
learning model. The issues about stages and grades are common to also contains race/center, age, gender, body mass index, smoking,
both models. Below is a short description of the Bayesian informa‐ education, diabetes, and hypertension: the supervised learning ap‐
tion criterion and its application to test the superiority of the two proach has a Bayesian information criterion score of 2997.7 and the
learning approaches. unsupervised learning approach has a Bayesian information criterion
score of 2978.4. Subtracting the latter score from the former results
in a delta score of 19.3, meaning that the unsupervised model is a
6.8.1 | The Bayesian information criterion
better fit than the supervised model and the resulting delta score
We computed the Bayesian information criterion to test whether of 19.3 indicates that the level of improvement in the model is very
the supervised learning approach or the unsupervised learn‐ strong.
ing approach made a greater contribution to explaining an oral For 3‐year attachment loss progression, adjusting for race/cen‐
or systemic outcome. 39,47,48 A lower Bayesian information crite‐ ter, age, gender, body mass index, smoking, education, diabetes,
rion score indicates a better performance in terms of the fit of and hypertension, the unsupervised learning approach performed
the model and the contribution to the outcome of interest. The better, with a delta Bayesian information criterion score of 20.3
between‐model difference in Bayesian information criterion is (very strong).
(BIC1‐BIC 2), which is used to compare the performance of each For prevalent diabetes, adjusting for race/center, age, gender,
model. The delta Bayesian information criterion score (ie, when body mass index, smoking, education, and hypertension, the unsu‐
the lower Bayesian information criterion score is subtracted from pervised learning approach performed better, with a delta Bayesian
the higher Bayesian information criterion score) indicates the fol‐ information criterion score of 4.9 (positive).
lowing: 0‐2 = not worth more than a bare mention; 2‐6 = positive; For C‐reactive protein, adjusting for race/center, age, gender,
6‐10 = strong; 10+ = very strong. body mass index, smoking, education, diabetes, and hypertension,
For example, to determine whether to use the supervised or the the unsupervised learning approach performed better, with a delta
unsupervised approach to explain 10‐year tooth loss in a model that Bayesian information criterion score of 13.2 (very strong).
BECK et al. | 283
Value
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Decreased odds Increased odds
F I G U R E 1 0 Odds of having a high C‐reactive protein level according to World Workshop Model (WW17) and Periodontal Profile Class
(PPC) stages. Odds for having high C‐reactive protein in the dental Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities cohort are depicted as adjusted
odds ratios (OR) for the Periodontal Profile Class supervised approach (A) and the Periodontal Profile Class unsupervised approach (B). For
A, stage I or initial disease is the reference; stage II or moderate disease, stage III or severe disease, and stage IV or advanced disease are
compared with stage I. For B, Periodontal Profile Class stage I or healthy/incidental disease is the reference; stage II or mild disease, stage III
or moderate disease, stage IV or severe disease, stage V or mild tooth loss/high gingival inflammation (Mild TL/Hi GI), stage VI or moderate
tooth loss/reduced periodontium (Mod TL/Reduced), stage VII or severe tooth loss (Severe TL) are compared with stage I. In B, odds ratios
are adjusted for race, examination center, age, gender, body mass index, smoking (three levels), diabetes, hypertension, and education (three
levels). LCL, lower confidence limit; UCL, upper confidence limit
For incident stroke, adjusting for race/center, age, gender, body category. Instead, it includes placing similar individuals into mutually
mass index, smoking, education, diabetes, and hypertension, the exclusive, homogeneous categories of risk, specific to a particular
unsupervised learning approach performed better, with a delta disease or condition. This means that instead of using an “average
Bayesian information criterion score of 12.9 (very strong). treatment” for all individuals with a particular diagnosis, precision
dentistry requires that the individuals in each diagnostic subgroup are
homogeneous so that a specific treatment will be more effective for
7 | S U M M A RY A N D CO N C LU S I O N S the individuals in that subgroup. Additional studies are needed to de‐
termine whether this can be achieved by using a method or a model
Various groups have been exploring the application of precision that places each individual in a subgroup where each member is the
medicine concepts to dentistry. Research advances are being made same as every other member in relation to the disease of interest.
in areas of genomics and oral cancer, head and neck cancer, orofacial Currently, a variety of dental conditions are being considered
pain, temporomandibular joint disorder (TMD), caries, periodontal with precision dentistry in mind. Models are being developed to
disease, and other conditions. It has been suggested that a precision place individuals with a particular disease into similar groups. These
oral health approach would benefit the diagnosis and the treatment models use different approaches and have been characterized as
of periodontal disease, although genetic work in this area is in its in‐ being either supervised learning or unsupervised learning. Experts
fancy. Discoveries in all of these areas can provide information lead‐ in the field who have predefined diagnostic categories based on
ing to new treatments for various periodontal disease phenotypes studies that have indicated representative aspects of a phenotype
that can then be used by dentists to practice precision dentistry. build supervised models. Unsupervised models use analytic proce‐
The move to precision dentistry is a new way of approaching dures, such as latent class analysis or deep learning models, which
health care that should be thought of as a paradigm shift, because use data to place each individual together with similar individuals
precision dentistry is not just placing an individual into a diagnostic into multiple groups that represent the risk for disease development,
284 | BECK et al.
progression, or the response to treatment. The medical literature has Whereas the World Workshop Model focused on the ways sys‐
shown that the use of latent class analysis has been useful in creating temic conditions affected periodontitis, this review focused on ways
these mutually exclusive groups that respond well to treatment. periodontitis may affect systemic conditions. The purpose here was
The World Workshop on Periodontal Disease Classification has to present additional information about how the supervised and un‐
created a new model that uses stages and grades of disease. The supervised approaches result in different periodontitis phenotypes,
model itself seems to work well to create stages that exhibit an in‐ which, in turn, affect the relationships between periodontitis and
creasing risk for tooth loss and grades that also show an increasing systemic diseases.
risk for tooth loss within each stage. The data presented in this re‐
view indicate that the concept of stages and grades works as ex‐
AC K N OW L E D G M E N T S
pected, in that periodontal disease seems to be more serious in each
successive stage. In addition, except in illogical situations (eg, grade The authors thank the staff and participants of the Atherosclerosis
C within lower stages and grade A within higher stages), the serious‐ Risk in Communities Study for their important contributions.
ness and the complexity of the disease are greater as the grade is Additional thanks to Alexandra Gunn for help with designing the fig‐
higher within each stage. ures used in this manuscript. The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities
The concept of stages and grades is integral for precision den‐ Study is carried out as a collaborative study supported by National
tistry because it accounts for the risk of future disease and prognosis Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute contracts (HHSN268201100005C,
as well as enabling the practitioner to use more signs, symptoms, HHSN268201100006C, HHSN268201100007C, HHSN268201100
and other associated factors when placing a patient in a diagnostic 008C, HHSN268201100009C, HHSN268201100010C, HHSN26820
category. However, a major issue in creating stages and grades is 1100011C, and HHSN268201100012C). The Atherosclerosis Risk in
how the information that goes into them is constructed. Procedures Communities dental study was funded by NIH/NIDCR R01‐DE021418,
to construct stages and grades have been classified into two catego‐ and R01‐DE021986, and NIH/NCRR UL1‐TR001111. James Beck,
ries: (a) a supervised learning system (World Workshop Model) and Kamaira Philips, Kevin Moss, Thiago Morelli, and Kimon Divaris re‐
(b) an unsupervised learning system (Periodontal Profile Class). Here, port no conflicts of interest. Kimon Divaris is supported by NIH/
the same data set was used to compare the two learning styles. NIDCR grant U01‐DE025046. Steven Offenbacher was supported
However, a weakness of the approach used here is that not all of the by R01‐DE023836. The Periodontal Profile Class, Tooth Profile Class,
data to create the World Workshop Model stages and grades were and Index of Periodontal Risk (IPR) technology and computational al‐
available. Thus, additional studies need to be carried out to provide gorithms, as well as the application to stages and grades is protected
this information across a larger number of people. under Copyright 2017‐2018 with the University of North Carolina.
Using Bayesian information criterion scores, we tested whether
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