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Intl Derivatives Market For Student
Intl Derivatives Market For Student
1
International derivative market
• Derivatives can be differentiated along three main dimensions
– Type of derivative and market place: Derivatives can be traded
bilaterally OTC (mostly individually customized contracts) or
multilaterally on exchanges (standardized contracts).
– Type of underlying: Underlyings can be financial instruments
themselves, physical assets, or any risk factors that can be measured.
Common examples are fixed-income, foreign exchange, credit risk,
equities and equity indices or commodities. Exotic underlyings are, for
example, weather, freight rates, or economic indicators.
– Type of product: The three main types are forwards (or futures), options
and swaps. They differ in terms of their dependence on the price of the
underlying.
• The most important area of risk management in international
investment is currency risk
• A currency derivative is a contract whose price is partially
derived from the value of the underlying currency that it
presents.
2
See BIS 2008 and
WFE statistics
(www.world-
exchanges.org); the
gross market value of
a derivatives contract
refers to the positive
market value one side
of a derivatives
contract has, not See BIS 2008; the
considering negative notional amount of
market values the a derivatives
other side to the contract refers to
derivatives contract the value or
might have. In nominal amount of
contrast to notional the underlying to
amount, gross market the derivatives
value reflects more contract;
the aggregated net outstanding refers
risk position of market to open derivatives
participants and is contracts that are
therefore significantly held by market
lower participants.
3
Natures of international derivative market
• Europe’s leading role within the derivatives market
– Today, Europe is the most important region in the global
derivatives market, with 44 percent of the global
outstanding volume – significantly higher than its share
in equities and bonds
– The global OTC derivatives segment is mainly based in
London.
– The unrestricted pan-European provision of investment
services, in place since the introduction of the European
Union’s Investment Services Directive (ISD) in January
1996 has strengthened the competitive position of
Europe in the global market environment.
– Many European banks are currently global leaders in
derivatives.
4
Natures of international derivative market
• Generally, there are two indications for competition
in a market: new market entries and customer
choice.
– New players regularly enter the market
– Customers can choose between many substitute products
across both its segments.
• The derivatives market can be characterized as
highly dynamic with plenty of market entries.
– There are no legal, regulatory or structural barriers to
entering the derivatives market.
– Almost all derivatives exchanges across the world have
been created during the last three decades only
5
Natures of international derivative market
• Away from the developed markets, related
activities in emerging markets are also intensive.
– Three derivatives operations have commenced
trading in the Middle East since 2005: Dubai Gold and
Commodities Exchange, Kuwait Stock Exchange, and
IMEX Qatar.
– India saw four new derivatives exchanges set up
between 2000 and 2003: National Stock Exchange of
India, Bombay Stock Exchange, MCX India, and
NCDEX India.
– China has seen the establishment of two derivatives
exchanges since 2005: Shanghai Futures Exchange
and China Financial Futures Exchange.
6
Natures of international derivative market
• Newly established derivatives exchanges are
competing for energy and emission rights trading.
– Three major exchanges are providing electricity
derivatives trading and clearing in Europe: Nord Pool,
Powernext, and EEX.
– Competitive trading and clearing of European carbon
emission allowances (EU allowances or EUAs) started
on EEX and ICE in January 2005 when the European
Union Gas Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) was
launched.
– Bluenext, a joint venture of NYSE Euronext and Caisse
des Dépôts, has been offering comparable EUA
derivatives since April 2008, directly competing with
established EUA marketplaces
Risk mitigation
• There are wanted and unwanted risks in the derivatives
market.
• The main reason for using derivatives is to gain exposure to a
“wanted” risk. This usually is a market risk that either could
compensate for an opposite risk (hedging) or that an investor
wants to benefit from for investment purposes
• However, as with other financial instruments, there are also
“unwanted” risks associated with derivatives trading that
investors seek to avoid. These unwanted risks are
counterparty, operational, legal and liquidity risks.
• The different risks that market participants face can ultimately
lead to systemic risk, that is, the failure of one counterparty
having adverse effects on other market participants, potentially
destabilizing the entire financial market. A primary concern of
all stakeholders, including regulators, is to limit systemic risk to
the greatest extent possible.
7
Innovation
• Across the board, the derivatives market has been
highly innovative. Indeed, product and technology
innovation have driven the impressive growth of the
market.
• European players have been central to this, leading
innovation in both fields.
• Product innovation and introduction is thus
significantly more costly on-exchange. Nevertheless,
derivatives exchanges are highly innovative.
– Globally, the top three derivatives exchanges (Eurex, CME
and Euronext.Liffe) have introduced more than 800 new
products since the beginning of 2005, increasing the
number of total products available to users by more than
80 percent.
Innovation
• Product innovation is a critical driver of overall market
growth as the following examples illustrate:
– CDSs were introduced as an OTC instrument in the mid-1990s as a
way of enabling market participants to manage their exposure to
credit risk. Driven by the CDS segment the credit derivatives
segment has grown at more than 70 percent per year from €135
billion in 1996 to €37 trillion in June 2007. Today, credit derivatives
account for about 8 percent of the total derivatives volume.
– Derivatives on carbon emission allowances (for example, EUAs)
are one of the newer product innovations introduced by derivatives
exchanges. Today’s market in EUAs is still relatively small with
about €24 billion traded in 2006, which is however three times as
much as the trading volume in 2005. But already new underlyings
are added in the emissions segment of the market: besides EEX
and Eurex, which have offered derivatives on CERs since March
2008, Barclays Capital in the OTC segment, and ICE and Bluenext
recently announced plans to enter this segment.
Innovation
• Technological innovations have contributed significantly to
greater efficiency in the derivatives market.
– Through innovations in trading technology, trades at Eurex are
today executed much faster than ten years ago despite the
strong increase in trading volume and the number of quotes
(Exhibit 10).
– Trading systems that can process transactions within fractions
of a second are the latest step in the automation of exchanges
that started with the introduction of electronic trading in the mid-
1980s. European derivatives exchanges have been at the
forefront of this “revolution”. They introduced fully electronic
trading well before their US counterparts (Exhibit 11).
– In recent years, the OTC segment has also become
increasingly automated with the emergence of new electronic
OTC trading platforms. Examples include ICAP, GFI, Tradition
and Tullett Prebon.
8
INTRODUCTION TO FORWARD
9
MTH17
Forward contract
• A forward contract is an agreement between two parties in
which one party, the buyer, agrees to buy from the other
party, the seller, an underlying asset at a future date at a
price established at the start of contract.
• The parties to the transaction specify the forward
contract‘s terms and conditions. In this sense, the contract
is said to be customized. Each party is subject to the
possibility that the other party will default.
• The holder of a long forward contract (the long) is
obligated to take delivery of the underlying asset and pay
the forward price at expiration. The holder of a short
forward contract is obligated to deliver the underlying asset
and accept payment of the forward price at expiration.
28
Forward contract
29
F
Buyer (the long) Seller (the short)
30
Underlying
10
Slide 28
Price of Price of
underlying underlying
at maturity ST at maturity ST
11
Measuring interest rate
m: compounding frequency
A: an amount invested for T years
V: an amount at expiration
r: interest rate per annum
T: years
• Discrete interest formula
Annually compounded: V = A(1+r)T
m times per annum compounded (annually m=1, semiannually m=2,
quarterly m=4, monthly m= 12, weekly m = 52, daily m = 360 if
LIBOR-style rate or m=365 if non-LIBOR-style rate): V = A(1+r/m)mT
• Continuous compounding interest formula:
m
m→∞
V = AerT because r
e r lim 1
m
m
MTH23
Conversion Formulas
• Yield calculation
y = (cash flow from investment/amount invested)1/n – 1
Where n: number of periods until the cash flow will be received
y: the yield on investment
• Annualizing yield:
Effective annual yield = (1 + periodic interest rate)m – 1
Where m is frequency of payment per year
Periodic interest rate = (1 + Effective annual yield)1/m – 1
36
12
Slide 35
37
Example
• An investor holds title an asset worth EUR125.72. To raise money for unrelated
purpose, the investor plans to sell the asset in nine months. The investor is
concerned about uncertainty in the price of the asset at that time and enters into
a forward contract to sell asset in nine months. The risk-free rate is 5.625%
(discrete compounding, months/12).
A. Determine the appropriate price the investor could receive in nine months by
means of the forward contract.
B. Suppose the counterparty to the forward contract is willing to engage in such a
contract at a forward price of EUR140. Explain what type of transaction the
investor could execute to take advantage of the situation. Calculate the rate of
return (annualized) and explain why the transaction is attractive.
C. Suppose the forward contract is entered into at the price you computed in Part
A. Two months later, the price of the asset is EUR118.875, the investor would
like to evaluate her position with respect to any gain or loss accrued on the
forward contract. Determine the market value of the forward contract at this
point in time from the perspective of the investor in Part A.
D. Determine the value of the forward contract at expiration assuming the contract
is entered onto at the price you computed in Part A and the price of the
underlying asset is EUR123.50 at expiration. Explain how the investor did on
the overall position of both asset and the forward contract in terms of the rate
of return.
13
Pricing and valuation of equity forward
contracts
• The present and future value of a stream of dividends over the life
of the forward contract:
PV0,T(D) = ∑i=1nDi/(1+r)ti
FV0,T(D) = ∑i=1nDi(1+r)ti
• The forward price including dividends:
F0,T = [S0 - PV0,T(D)](1+r)T or F0,T = S0(1+r)T - FV0,T(D)
or F0,T = (S0e-qT)erT
• The value of forward contract:
Vt,(0,T) = St – PVt,T(D) - F0,T/(1+r)T-t
or Vt,(0,T) = St e-q(T-t) - F0,Te-r(T-t) (continuous compounding)
• At expiration t = T and no dividends remains, VT,(0,T) = ST - F0,T
• At the contract initiation date, t = 0, V0,(0,T) = S0 – PV0,T(D) -
F0,T/(1+r)T = 0 because F0,T = [S0 - PV0,T(D)](1+r)T
40
Example
An asset manager anticipates the receipt of funds in 200 days,
which he will use to purchase a particular stock. The stock he has in
mind is currently selling for USD62.50 and will pay a USD0.75
dividend in 50 days and another USD0.75 dividend in 140 days. The
risk-free rate is 4.2% (discrete compounding, days/365). The
manager decides to commit a future purchase of the stock by going
long a forward contract on the stock.
A. At what price would the manager commit to purchase the stock in
200 days through a forward contract?
B. Suppose the manager enters into the contract at the price you
found in part A. Now, 75 days later, the stock price is USD55.75.
Determine the value of the forward contract at this point.
C. It is now the expiration day, and the stock price is USD58.50.
Determine the value of the forward contract at this time.
42
14
Pricing and valuation of fixed-income
forward contracts
• Converting the formula for a forward contract on a stock into that for a
forward contract on a bond and let CI be coupon interest over a specific
period of time, we have:
• The forward price including dividends:
F0,T = [Bc0,(T+Y) - PV0,T(CI)](1+r)T or F0,T = [Bc0,(T+Y)](1+r)T - FV0,T(CI)
where PV0,T(CI) and FV0,T(CI) is the present value and the future value of
the coupon interest over the life of the forward contract.
• The value of forward contract at time t would be:
Vt,(0,T) = Bct,(T+Y) – PVt,T(CI) - F0,T/(1+r)T-t
• At expiration, no coupons would remain, t = T and VT,(0,T) = BcT,(T+Y) - F0,T
• At time t = 0, V0,(0,T) = Bc0,(T+Y) – PV0,T(CI) - F0,T/(1+r)T = 0 because F0,T =
[Bc0,(T+Y) - PV0,T(CI)](1+r)T
43
Example
An investor purchased a bond when it was originally issued with a maturity
of five years. The bond pays semiannual coupon of USD50. It is now 150
days into the life of the bond. The investor wants to sell the bond the day
after its fourth coupon. The first coupon occurs 181 days after issue, the
second 365 days, the third 547 days, and the fourth 730 days. At this point
(150 days into the life of the bond), the price is USD1,010.25. The bond
prices quoted here include accrued interest (discrete compounding,
days/365).
A. At what price could the owner enter into a forward contract to sell the bond
on the day after its fourth coupon? Note that the owner would receive that
fourth coupon. The risk-free rate is currently 8%.
B. Now move forward 365 days. The new risk-free interest rate is 7% and the
new price of the bond is USD1,025.375. The counterparty to the forward
contract believes that it has received a gain on the position. Determine the
value of the forward contract and the gain or loss to the counterparty at this
time. Note that we have now introduced a new risk-free rate, because
interest rates can obviously change over the life of the bond and any
calculations of the forward contract value must reflect this fact. The new
risk-free rate is used instead of the old rate in the valuation formula.
INTRODUCTION TO FUTURES
15
Futures contract
• A futures contract is an alternative to a forward contract
that calls for future delivery of a standard amount of the
asset at a fixed time, place and price.
• Futures contracts exist for commodities such as cattle,
lumber, interestbearing deposits, gold, etc.
• In the US, the most important market for foreign currency
futures is the International Monetary Market (IMM), a
division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
• Futures contracts are traded either in the pit (pit trading)
or on a computer screen or electronic terminal
(electronic trading).
46
Price of
underlying Price of
at maturity ST underlying
at maturity ST
Long Position Short Position
Payoff = ST – F Payoff = F – ST = (0.0037)
= $1.9800 - $1.9763 = 0.0037
or $0.0037 * 62.500 = $231.25/contract
16
Offsetting (before expiration)
• A party that has opened a long or a short position collects profits or
incurs losses on a daily basis.
• At some point in the life of the futures contract prior to expiration, the
party to the contract may wish to reenter the market and close out the
position. This process is called offsetting.
– The holder of a long futures position goes back into the market and offers
the identical contract for sale
– The holder of a short futures position goes back into the market and offers
to buy the identical contract
• When a party offsets a position, it does not necessarily do so with the
same counterparty. The clearinghouse inserts itself in the middle of
each contract and becomes the counterparty to each party.
• Once the party finds a buyer (or a seller) to take the opposite position,
the party has a long and a short position in the same contract. The
clearinghouse considers that the party no longer has a position in that
contract and has no remaining exposure, nor any obligation to make or
delivery at expiration.
Prof.Dr1
17
Slide 50
Closeout:
Sell contract at 53
Mark to market P/L: 53 - 52 = 1
Physical delivery:
Pay 52, receive asset worth 53
Buy futures at 50 Mark to market P/L: Cash settlement:
Pay nothing 52 - 50 = 2 Receive 53 -52 = 1
Futures exchanges
• A futures exchange is a legal corporate entity whose
shareholders are its members.
• The members own memberships (seats). Exchange
members have privilege of executing transactions on the
exchange.
• The member of the exchange (clearinghouse) must post
funds with the clearinghouse
• Each member acts either a floor trader or a broker:
– Floor traders (locals) are market makers, standing ready to buy
and sell by quoting a bid and an ask price. They are the primary
providers of liquidity to the market. Locals are trading on their own
account.
– Brokers (futures commission merchants FCMs) execute
transactions for other parties off the exchange. FCMs are following
the instructions of their clients and charge a commission for doing
so.
Prof.Dr2
Futures exchanges
• Individuals taking position, whether locals on the exchange
floor or the clients of FCMs, can be categorized as hedgers,
speculators, or arbitrageurs. Speculators typically trade
according to one of several distinct styles:
– A scalper offers to buy or sell futures contracts, holding the position
for only a brief periods, perhaps just seconds. Scalpers attempt to
profit by buying at the bid price and selling at the higher ask price.
– A day trader holds a position open somewhat longer but closes all
position at the end of the day
– A position trader holds a position open overnight . Day traders and
position traders attempt to profit from the anticipated direction of the
market.
• There is also a spread trader, who simultaneously buys a
contract on an asset for one maturity month and sells a
contract on the same asset for another maturity month.
18
Slide 54
Futures exchanges
• Each trader is required to have an account at a clearing firm.
• Futures exchange have trading either on the floor or off the
exchange on electronic terminals, or both.
– Floor trading in the US takes place in octagonal, multi-tiered pit where
floor traders stand and conduct transactions. A trade is
consummated by two traders agreeing on a price and a number of
contracts (by using a combination of hand signals and/or eye
contact). When a transaction is agreed on, the traders fill out small
paper forms and turn them over to clerks, who then see that the
transactions are entered into system and reported.
– In electronic trading, the principles remain essentially the same but
the traders do not stand in the pits. They do not see each other at all.
They sit at computer terminals, which enable them to see the bids
and offers of other traders.
Futures exchanges
• Futures exchange:
http://dir.yahoo.com/Business_and_Economy/Finance_a
nd_Investment/Futures_and_Options/Exchanges/
– CME Group: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/
– NYSE Euronext: https://globalderivatives.nyx.com/en/fx/nyse-liffe
– NASDAG OMX│PHLX: NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX): option
http://www.nasdaqomxtrader.com/Micro.aspx?id=wco
– NASDAG OMX│NFX: The NASDAQ OMX Futures Exchange
(NFX)
– http://www.nasdaqomxtrader.com/Micro.aspx?id=PBOTProducts
– Tokyo International Financial Futures Exchange:
http://www.tfx.co.jp/en/index.shtml
– Montreal Exchange: http://www.m-
x.ca/produits_options_devises_en.php
57
19
Futures exchanges
58
Daily settlement
• The gains and losses on each party’s position are
credited and charged on a daily basis – this procedure is
called daily settlement or marking to market.
• This practice results in the conversion of gains and
losses on paper into actual gains and losses.
• It is equivalent to terminating a contract at the end of
each day and reopening it the next day at settlement
price.
• In some sense, a futures is like a strategy of opening up
a forward contract, closing it one day later, opening up a
forward contract, closing it one day later, and continuing
in that manner until expiration.
Margin
• Margin in the stock market is quite different from
margin in the futures market. In the stock market,
margin means that a loan is made.
• The loan enables the investor to reduce the
amount of his own money required to purchase
the securities, thereby generating leverage or
gearing: M = 100 x (V-L)/V, where M is the
margin, V is the market value of the stocks and L
is the broker's loan.
Rennes1
20
Margin
• In the futures market, a margin (now called performance
bond by CME) must be placed by every buyers and sellers
in a clearing house to ensure that both parties will honor
the futures trading contract.
• Margin is commonly used to describe the amount of
money that must put into an account by a party opening up
a futures position.
• This surety is used to guarantee the payment of the
ordered assets (by the buyer) and their delivery (by the
seller).
• The margin can be in the forms of money, treasury bonds,
bank guarantee, and fixed deposit receipts.
• Margin is set as % of the contract value, between 1% and
10%, which depends on the volatility of the contract value
(the risk). In fact, futures margins are usually less than
10% of futures price.
Rennes1
Initial margin
• Initial margin is the sum required to initiate a futures
position.
• Its amount is based on maximum estimated change in
contract value within a trading day.
• Buyers and sellers must maintain a minimum margin
(maintenance margin) in their account (approximately
75% of initial margin);
• Every day or several times a day, some margin calls can
be made in order to restore the amount of initial margin
in case of high loss.
• If the margin calls is not met during the day, the clearing
house has the right to close sufficient positions to meet
the amount called
• If the investor does not want to meet the margin call, it
can close out position on the next day as soon as
possible.
Marking to Market
Your balance
Initial
margin
Maint.
margin
21
Example of a Futures Trade
(page 27-29)
Marking to market
Example
• 5-Jun: Purchase 2 gold futures contracts at COMEX
– Delivery in Dec
– Futures price: $400
– Quantity: 100 ounces
– Initial deposit: $2000/contract
– MM: $1500/contract
– No withdrawal on the deposit
• Estimate the margin call with respect to change in gold
price
• Calculate the profit/loss from this operation
22
Futures Price Gain/loss Acc.Results Margin Margin call
400
397
396.1
398.2
397.1
396.7
395.4
393.3
393.6
391.8
392.7
387
387
388.1
388.7
391
392.4
68
23
Futures vs forward contracts
Futures contracts differ from forward contracts in a number of important
ways:
‒ Futures has low counterparty risk, whereas forward has high
counterparty risk
‒ Futures has good liquidity thanks to their standardization, while
forward has low liquidity.
‒ Futures have an initial margin that is marked to market on a daily
basis while only a bank relationship is needed for a forward
‒ Futures are rarely delivered upon (99% is cash-settled) while forwards
are normally delivered upon (settled)
‒ Futures cover only major currencies while forwards cover over 50
currencies.
‒ Futures have smaller contract sizes, usually around USD50,000-
100,000, while forwards‘s contract sizes are at least USD5 million.
70
24
Widely Traded Financial Futures Contracts
25
Stock Index Futures Contracts
• The most successful futures contract at CME is S&P’s
500 Stock index.
• The contract is quoted in terms of a price on the same
order of magnitude as the S&P 500 itself.
– Exp. If the S&P 500 Index at 1187, a two-month futures contract
might be quoted at price of 1187.
• The actual price is produced by multiplying the multiplier
for the S&P 500 futures by the quoted futures price
– Exp, if the multiplier is USD250, the futures price is 1187, the
actual futures price is 1187x250 = USD296,750.
• S&P 500 futures expirations are March, June, September,
and December and go out about two years. The contracts
expire on the Thursday preceding the third Friday of the
month.
26
Currency Futures Contracts
• In the US, the primary currencies on which trading occurs
are EUR, CAD, CHF, JPY, GBP, MXN, and AUD.
• Each contract has a designated size and quotation unit.
– Exp. The euro contract covers EUR125,000 and is quoted in dollar
per euro. A futures price such as USD0.855 is stated in dollars and
converts to a contract price of 125,000 x 0.8555 = USD106,937.50
• The JPY futures price is structured differently. Because of
the large number of yen per dollar, the contract covers
JPY12,500,000 and is quoted without two zeroes that
ordinarily precede the price.
– Exp. A price might be stated as 0.8025, but this actually represents a
price of 0.008205, which converts to a contract price of 12,500,000 x
0.008205 = USD102,562.50
• Currency futures contracts expire in the months of March,
June, September, and December. The specific expiration is
the second business day before the third Wednesday of the
month.
81
27
Basic principles to futures hedging
Basic principles
• Example: a company that knows it will gain USD10,000 for
each 1 cent increase in the price of commodity over the
next months and lose USD10,000 for each 1 cent decrease
in the price of a commodity during the same period.
• To hedge, the company’s treasurer should take a short
position that is designed to offset the risk. The futures
position should lead to a loss of USD10,000 for each 1 cent
increase in the price of commodity over the 3 months and a
gain of USD10,000 for each 1 cent decrease in the price
during this period.
• If the price of the commodity goes down (up), the gain
(loss) on the futures position offsets the loss(gain) on the
rest of the company’s business.
28
Hedging with futures and forward
for managing bond portfolio risk
29
Measuring the risk of a bond portfolio
• The sensitivity of a bond to a general change in interest rate
is usually captured by assuming that the bond price changes
in response to a change in its yield. More specifically, it is the
appropriate percentage change in prices for a 100 basis
point change in rates.
• The responsiveness of a bond price to a yield change is
captured in two ways: duration and basis point value.
• Duration is a measure of the size and timing of cash flows
paid by a bond.
– It quantifies these factors by summarizing them in the form of a single
number, which is interpreted as an average maturity of the bond.
– Or to speak in terms of an average maturity of a bond, a coupon bond
is a combination of zero-coupon bonds. Thus, the duration is the
average maturity of these component zero-coupon bonds.
– The average is not an ordinary average but a weighted average, with
the weights based on the present values of the respective cash
payments on the bonds. Hence the weights are not equal.
• So, duration is the weighted-average maturity of a bond,
where weights are the present values of the bond’s cash
flows, given as proportions of bond’s price
Example
Face value of a bond = USD1000
T= 3 years
Coupon rate = 7%
Yield = 9%
DUR?
30
Example
Face value of a bond = USD1000
T= 3 years
Coupon rate = 7%
Yield = 9%
DUR? $70 $70 x 2 $1,070 x3
1.09 (1.09) 2 (1.09)3
DUR 2.8 years
$70 $70 $1,070
2
3
1.09 (1.09) (1.09)
Example
Example
or
31
Measuring the risk of a bond portfolio
• The duration of a bond portfolio is a weighted average of
the durations of the bonds in the portfolio, where the
weights are defined as the proportions of investments in the
bonds.
• Consider another bond B with a maturity of 10 years and a
coupon rate of 10%. Using the same yield, the price of bond
B is $1,373.96 and its duration is 7.257 years. The duration
of bond B is longer since it has a longer maturity.
• Now consider a bond portfolio including one bond A and
two bonds B. The portfolio value is thus:
1210.23 + 2(1373.96) = $3,958.15.
The portfolio duration is computed as follows:
32
Measuring the risk of a bond portfolio
• Duration and PVBP are usually thought of with respect to
individual bonds, but in practice they are used at the portfolio
level.
• A given bond portfolio can be thought as a series of cash
flows that can be captured in terms of a representative bond:
– Exp. We might describe this bond as a bond portfolio with a market
value of USD922.5 million, a modified duration of 5.47 years and a
portfolio bond yield that is a complex weighted average of the yields
on the component bonds of the portfolio. The portfolio bond change is
a weighted average of yield changes on the component bonds. Given
such a yield change, the bond portfolio value will change in an
approximate manner according to the duration formula shown in the
previous slides.
33
Balancing the risk of a bond portfolio
against the risk of bond futures
• We have measured the responsiveness of a bond portfolio
the responsiveness of a futures contract to interest
changes, we should be able to find a way to balance the
two to offset the risk.
• Assume that a 1 basis point change in the interest rate will
cause a 1 basis point change in the yield on the bond
portfolio and a 1 basis point change in the implied yield on
the futures. Or say in other words, an interest rate change
occurs in the market (exp. the overnight Fed funds rate in
the US) and drives the yield on the bond and implied yield
on the futures one-for-one (Dyf = DyB).
• Assume that a money manager, who holds a bond portfolio
of a particular market value, will not make any transactions
in the actual bonds themselves, however can trade any
number of futures contracts to adjust the risk.
34
Balancing the risk of a bond portfolio
against the risk of bond futures
• The risk of the overall bond portfolio reflects the duration of
the bonds and the duration of the futures.
• Suppose we consider a target overall modified duration of
the portfolio, MDURT. Because the portfolio consists of
bonds worth B and futures, which have zero value, the
overall portfolio value is B.
• We introduce the notion of a dollar duration, which is the
duration times the market value:
exp. B(MDURB) or f(MDURf)
• The target dollar duration of our portfolio is set equal to the
dollar duration of the bonds we hold and the dollar duration
of the futures contracts.
B(MDURT) = B(MDURB) + f(MDURf)Nf
Example
(Using bond futures to manage the risk of a bond portfolio)
• A portion of the pension funds of United Energy Services (UES) is a
portfolio of US government bonds. On 7 July, UES obtained a forecast
from its economist that over the next months, interest rates are likely to
make a significant unexpected decline. Its portfolio manager would like
to take a portion of the bond portfolio and increase the duration to take
advantage of this forecasted market movement.
• Specifically, UES would like to raise the duration on USD75 million of
bonds from its current level of 6.22 to 7.5 (modified duration). UES has
identified an appropriate Treasury bond futures contract that is currently
priced at USD 82,500 and has an implied modified duration of 8.12.
UES has estimated that the yield on the bond portfolio is about 5%
more volatile than the implied yield on the futures. Thus the yield beta
is 1.05.
• On 6 August, the implied yield on the futures has increased by 35 basis
points, and the futures price has now moved to USD85,000. The yield
on the bond portfolio has decreased by 40 basis points, and the
portfolio has increased in value by USD1,933,500.
35
Example
(Using bond futures to manage the risk of a bond portfolio)
36
Measuring and managing the risk of
equities
• Futures provide the best way to manage the risk of
diversified equity portfolios. The most common risk
measure of this type is the beta.
• Beta measures the relationship between a stock portfolio
and the market portfolio.
• The market portfolio is the most broadly diversified
portfolio of all. It is impossible to identify the composition
of the true market portfolio and there are no futures
contracts on the true market portfolio. Thus, we tend to
use proxies, such as S&P 500 index, and futures
contracts on proxies.
• It is appropriate to measure the beta of a portfolio
relative to index on which the futures is based.
37
Managing the risk of an equity portfolio
Example
A. On Sep 2, BB Holdings (BBH) is a US conglomerate. Its pension
fund generates market forecasts internally and receives forecasts
from an independent consultant. As a result of these forecasts, BBH
expects the market for large-cap stock to be stronger than it believes
everyone else is expecting over the next two months.
BBH decides to adjust the beta on USD38,500,000 of large-cap
stock from its current level of 0.90 to 1.10 for the period of the next
two months. It has selected a futures contracts deemed to have
sufficient liquidity; the futures price is currently USD275,000 and the
contract has a beta of 0.95.
B. On Dec 3, the market as a whole increases by 4.4%.The stock
portfolio increases to USD40,103,000. The stock index futures
contract rises to USD286,687.50, an increase of 4.25%.
C. Suppose that instead of being optimistic, the fund manager was very
pessimistic and wanted to decrease the beta to zero.
Example
Equity analysts Inc. (EQA) is an equity portfolio
management firm. One of its clients has decided to be
more aggressive for a short period of time. It would like
EQA to move the beta on its USD65 million portfolio from
0.85 to 1.05. EQA can use a futures contract priced at
USD188,500 which has a beta of 0,92, to implement this
change in risk.
A. Determine the number of futures contracts EQA should
use and whether it should buy or sell futures.
B. At the horizon date, the equity market is down 2%. The
stock portfolio falls 1.65%, and the futures price falls to
USD185,000. Determine the overall value of the position
and the effective beta.
38
Example
Example
Example
A portfolio manager knows that a $100 million inflow of
cash will be received in a month. The portfolio under
management is 80% invested in stock with an average
beta of 0.9 and 20% invested in bonds with a duration of
4. The most appropriate stock index futures contract has
a price of $250,500 and a beta of 1.2. The most
appropriate bond index futures has a duration of 5 and a
price of $98,500. How can the manager pre-invest the
$100 million in the appropriate proportions?
39
Managing the risk of a foreign-market
asset portfolio
• The increasing globalization leads to hold or consider to hold foreign
stock and bonds.
• It is tempting to believe that the asset managers should accept the
foreign market risk, using it to further diversify the portfolio, and hedge
the foreign currency risk.
• Consider a US asset management firm that owns a portfolio currently
invested in euro-denominated stock. The firm is long both the stock and
the euro.
• At the future time t, the portfolio is worth St in euro and the exchange
rate is FXt dollars per euro. So the portfolio would then be worth StFXt
in dollars.
• A forward contract on the euro would require the firm to deliver a
certain number of euros and receive forward rate F. The number of
euros to be delivered would need to be specified in the contract and it
is St euros, which is unknown at the time the forward contract is
initiated.
40
Example
• On Dec 31, AZ Asset Manager is a US firm that recently began learning
about managing currency risk and would like to begin investing in foreign
market with a small position worth EUR10 million. The proposed portfolio
has a beta of 1.10. AZ is considering either hedging the European equity
market return and leaving the currency risk unhedged, or hedging the
currency risk as well as the European equity market return. If it purchases
the EUR10 million portfolio, it will put this hedge in place on 31 December
and plans to leave the position open until 31 December of the following
year.
A. For hedging the European equity market risk, it will use a stock index
futures contract on a euro-denominated stock index. This contract is
priced at EUR120,000 and has a beta of 0.95. If it hedges the currency
risk, it will use a dollar-denominated forward contract on the euro. That’s
contract has a price of USD0.815 and can have any notional principal that
the parties agree on the start. The current spot rate is USD0.80. The
foreign risk-free rate is 4% (annually compounded). The domestic interest
rate is 6%.
B. On Dec 31 of the following year, the European stock market went down
4.55%. The exchange rate fell to USD0.785, and the futures price fell to
EUR110,600.
Example
FCA Managers (FCAM) is a US asset management firm. Among its
asset classes is a portfolio of Swiss stock worth SF10 million, which has
a beta of 1.00. The spot exchange rate is USD0.75, the Swiss interest
rate is 5%, and the US interest rate is 6%. Both of these interest rate are
compounded in the LIBOR manner: Rate x (Days/360). These rates are
consistent with a six-month forward rate of USD0.7537. FCAM is
considering hedging the local market return on the portfolio and possibly
hedging the exchange rate risk for a six-month period. A futures
contract on the Swiss market is priced at SF300,000 and has a beta of
0.90.
A. What futures position should FCAM take to hedge the Swiss market
return? What return could it expect?
B. Assuming that it hedges the Swiss market return, how could it hedge
the exchange rate risk as well, and what return could it expect?
INTRODUCTION TO SWAP
41
MTH10
Swap
• A swap is an agreement between two parties to exchange
a series of future cash flows.
• For most types of swaps, one party makes payments that
are determined by a random outcome, such as an interest
rate, a currency rate, an equity return, or a commodity
price. These payments are commonly referred to as
variable or floating. The other party either makes variable
or floating payments determined by some other random
factor or makes fixed payments. At least one type of swap
involves both parties making fixed payments, but the
values of those payments vary due to random factors.
• Other definition: Swap is an over-the-counter transaction
consisting of a series of forward contracts.
124
MTH15
Natures of swap
• Although technically a swap can have a single payment, most
swaps involve multiple payments. Thus, we refer to a swap as a
series of payments.
• In fact, we have already covered a swap with one payment, which
is just a forward contract. Hence, a swap is basically a series of
forward contracts.
• With this idea in mind, we can see that a swap is like an
agreement to buy some thing over a period of time. We might be
paying a variable price or a price that has already been fixed; we
might be paying an uncertain price, or we might already know the
price we shall pay.
• When a swap is initiated, neither party pays any amount to the
other. Therefore, a swap has zero value at the start of the
contract.
• However, each party pays the notional principal to the other, but
the amounts exchanged are equivalent, though denominated in
two different currencies.
125
MTH17
Natures of swap
• Each date on which the parties make payments is called a
settlement date, some times called a payment date.
• The time between settlement dates is called the settlement period.
• On a given settlement date when payments are due, one party
makes a payment to the other, which in turn makes a payment to
the first party. With the exception of currency swaps and a few
variations associated with other types of swaps, both sets of
payments are made in the same currency. Consequently, the
parties typically agree to exchange only the net amount owed from
one party to the other, a practice called netting.
• Note the implication that swaps are generally settled in cash. It is
quite rare for swaps to call for actual physical delivery of an
underlying asset.
• A swap always has a termination date, the date of the final
payment. We can think of this date as its expiration date, as we do
with other derivatives.
• The original time to maturity is sometimes called the tenor of a
swap. 126
42
Slide 124
Slide 125
Slide 126
Natures of swap
• The swap market is almost exclusively an over-the-
counter market, so swaps contracts are customized to the
parties' specific needs.
• Several of the leading futures exchanges have created
futures contracts on swaps. These contracts allow
participants to hedge and speculate on the rates that will
prevail in the swap market at future dates. Of course,
these contracts are not swaps themselves but, as
derivatives of swaps, they can in some ways serve as
substitutes for swaps. These futures contracts have been
moderately successful, but their volume is insignificant
compared with the-over-the-counter market for swaps.
127
MTH20
Natures of swap
• Default is possible whenever a payment is due. When a
series of payments is made, there is default risk potential
throughout the life of the contract, depending on the financial
condition of the two parties. But default can be somewhat
complicated in swaps.
– Exp, on a settlement date, Party A owes Party B a payment of
$50,000 and Party B owes Party A a payment of $12,000. Agreeing to
net, Party A owes Party B S38,000 for that particular payment, Party
A may be illiquid, or perhaps even bankrupt, and unable to make the
payment. But it may be the case that the market value of the swap,
which reflects the present value of the remaining payments, could be
positive from the perspective of Party A and negative from the
perspective of Party B. In that case, Party B owes Party A more for
the remaining payments.
• The handling of default in swaps can be complicated,
depending on the contract specifications and the applicable
laws under which the contract was written. In most cases,
the above situation would be resolved by having A be in
default but possessing an asset, the swap, that can be used
128
to help settle its other liabilities.
Termination of a swap
• A swap has a market value that can be calculated during
its life.
– If a party holds a swap with a market value of $125,000, it can
settle the swap with the counterparty by having the counterparty
pay it $125,000 in cash. This payment terminates the transaction
for both parties.
• From the opposite perspective, a party holding a swap
with a negative market value can terminate the swap by
paying the market value to the counterparty.
• Terminating a swap in this manner is possible only if the
counterparties specify in advance that such a transaction
can be made, or if they reach an agreement to do so
without having specified in advance. In other words, this
feature is not automatically available and must be agreed
to by both parties.
43
Slide 127
Slide 128
Termination of a swap
• Another way to terminate a swap early is sell the swap to
another counterparty.
– Suppose a corporation holds a swap worth $75,000. If it can
obtain the counterparty's permission, it can find another party to
take over its payments. In effect, it sells the swap for $75,000 to
that party. This procedure, however, is not commonly used.
• A final way to terminate a swap early is by using a
swaption. This instrument is an option to enter into a
swap at terms that are established in advance. Thus, a
party could use a swaption to enter into an offsetting
swap, as described above.
MTH16
Types of swaps
• The underlying assets in a swap can be a currency, interest
rate, stock, or commodity:
– Currency swap: each party makes interest payments to the other in
different currencies. In a currency swap the principal is usually
exchanged at the beginning and the end of the swap’s life.
– Interest rate swap: it is a currency swap in which both currencies are
the same. Because we are paying in the same currency, there is no
need to exchange notional principal at the beginning and at the end
of an interest rate swap.
– A plain vanilla swap: it is simply an interest rate swap in which one
party pays a fixed rate and the other pays a floating rate, with both
sets of payments in the same currency.
– Commodity swaps are very commonly used. Exp, airlines enter into
swaps to hedge their future purchases of jet fuel. They agree to make
fixed payments to a swap dealer on regularly scheduled dates and
receive payments determined by the price of jet fuel. Gold mining
companies use swaps to hedge future deliveries of gold. Other
parties dealing in such commodities as natural gas and precious
metals often use swaps to lock in prices for future purchases and132
sales.
44
Slide 132
133
Interest swap
• An interest rate swap is a currency swap in which both
currencies are the same.
• Because we are paying in the same currency, there is no
need to exchange notional principal at the beginning and
at the end of an interest rate swap.
• The interest payments can be, and nearly always are,
netted. If one party owes $X and the other owes $Y, the
party owing the greater amount pays the net difference.
which greatly reduces the credit risk.
• There is no reason to have both sides pay a fixed rate.
The two streams of payments would be identical in that
case. So in an interest rate swap, either one side always
pays fixed and the other side pays floating, or both sides
pay floating (called a basis swap), but never do both sides
pay fixed.
45
Plain vanilla swap
• Consider a swap to pay Currency A fixed and Currency B
floating. Currency A could be dollars, and B could be
euros. The first case is a dollar-denominated plain vanilla
swap; the second is a euro-denominated plain vanilla
swap.
• A plain vanilla swap is simply an interest rate swap in
which one party pays a fixed rate and the other pays a
floating rate, with both sets of payments in the same
currency.
• Both sets of payments are on the same notional principal
and occur on regularly scheduled dates.
• In fact, the plain vanilla swap is probably the most
common derivative transaction in the global financial
system.
Example
• Let us now illustrate an interest rate swap. Suppose that on 15 Dec,
General Electric Company (NYSE: GE) borrows money for one year
from Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). The loan is for $25 million and
specifies that GE will make interest payments on a quarterly basis on
15 Mar, Jun, Sep, and Dec for one year at the rate of LlBOR plus 25
basis points. At the end of the year, it will pay back the principal. On
15 Dec, Mar, Jun, and Sep, LIBOR is observed and sets the rate for
that quarter. The interest is then paid at the end of the quarter.
• GE believes that it is getting a good rate, but fearing a rise in interest
rates, it would prefer a fixed-rate loan. It can easily convert the
floating-rare loan to a fixed-rate loan by engaging in a swap. Suppose
it approaches JP Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), a large dealer bank,
and requests a quote on a swap to pay a fixed rate and receive
LlBOR, with payments on the dates of its loan payments. The bank
prices the swap and quotes a fixed rate of 6.2% (Typically the rate is
quoted as a spread over the rate on a U.S. Treasury security with a
comparable maturity. Suppose the yield on a two-year Treasury note
is 6%. Then the swap would be quoted as 20 basis points over the
two-year Treasury rate. By quoting the rate in this manner, GE knows
what it is paying over the Treasury rate, a differential called the swap
spread). The fixed payments will be made based on a day count of
90/365, and the floating payments will be made based on 90/360.
Current LIBOR is 5.9%.
46
• Note in Exhibit 4 that we did not show the notional
principal, because it was not exchanged. We could
implicitly show that GE received $25 million from JPM
and paid $25 million to JPM at the start of the swap. We
could also show that the same thing happens at the end.
If we look at it that way, it appears as if GE has issued a
$25 million fixed-rate bond, which was purchased by
JPM, which in turn issued a $25 million floating-rate
bond, which was in turn purchased by GE.
• In fact, neither party actually issued a bond, but they
have generated the cash flows that would occur if GE
had issued such a fixed-rate bond, JPM had issued such
a floating-rate bond, and each purchased the bond of the
other. In other words, we could include the principals on
both sides to make each set of cash flows look like a
bond, yet the overall cash flows would be the same as
on the swap.
Exhibit 5 shows the net effect of the swap and the loan. GE pays LIBOR plus 25 basis
points to Bank of America on its loan, pays 6.2% JPM, and receives LIBOR from
JPM. The net effect is that GE pays 6.2 + 0.25 = 6.45% fixed.
47
Example
Determine the upcoming payments in a plain vanilla
interest rate swap in which the notional principal is €70
million. The end user makes a semiannual fixed payments
at the rate of 7%, and the dealer makes semiannual
floating payments at Euribor, which was 6.25% on the last
settlement period. The floating payments are made on the
basis of 180 days in the settlement period and 360 days in
a year. The fixed payments are made on the basis of 180
days in the settlement period and 365 days in a year.
Payments are netted, so determine which party pays which
and what amount.
Example
A U.S. company has entered into an interest rate swap
with a dealer in which the notional principal is $50 million.
The company will pay a floating rate of LIBOR and
receive a fixed rate of 5.75%. Interest is paid
semiannually, and the current LIBOR is 5.15%. Calculate
the first payment and indicate which party pays which.
Assume that floating-rate payment will be made on the
basis of 180/360 and fixed-rate payments will be made
on the basis of 180/365.
Example
48
An Example of a “Plain Vanilla”
Interest Rate Swap
• An agreement by Microsoft to receive 6-month
LIBOR & pay a fixed rate of 5% per annum every 6
months for 3 years on a notional principal of $100
million
• Next slide illustrates cash flows that could occur
(Day count conventions are not considered)
49
Intel and Microsoft (MS) Transform a Liability
(Figure 7.2, page 151)
Swap: 5%
Intel MS
LIBOR
5.2%
Intel MS
LIBOR+0.1%
LIBOR
Options, Futures, and Other
Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright 149
© John C. Hull 2012
• For Intel, the swap could transform a fixed-rate loan into a floating-rate
loan. Suppose that Intel borrows USD100 million at 5.2%. After
entering into the swap, Intel has 3 cash flows:
– Pays 5.2% to its outside lenders
– Pays LIBOR under the swap
– Receives 5% under the swap
• Three cash flows net out to an interest payment of LIBOR + 0.2%
The swap transformed borrowing at a fixed rate of 5.2% to borrowing
at a floating LIBOR+0.2%
5%
5.2%
Intel MS
LIBOR+0.1%
LIBOR
Options, Futures, and Other
Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright 150
© John C. Hull 2012
50
Financial Institution is Involved
(Figure 7.4, page 152)
• Financial Institution earns 3 basis point (0.03%) on two offsetting
transactions with Intel and MS.
• MS ends up borrowing at 5.1% + 0.015% = 5.115% :
– Pays LIBOR+0.1%
– Pays x%
– Receives LIBOR
We have -LIBOR - 0.1% - x% + LIBOR = -5.115% x = 5.015%
• Intel ends up borrowing at LIBOR+0.2% + 0.015% = LIBOR + 0.215%
– Pays 5.2%
– Pays LIBOR
– Receives y%
We have -5.2% - LIBOR + y% = -LIBOR – 0.215% y = 4.985%
y=4.985% x=5.015%
5.2%
Intel F.I. MS
LIBOR+0.1%
LIBOR LIBOR 151
4.7%
Intel MS
LIBOR-0.2%
LIBOR
Options, Futures, and Other
Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright 152
© John C. Hull 2012
LIBOR
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 153
8th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2012
51
Financial Institution is Involved
(See Figure 7.5, page 153)
• Financial Institution earns 3 basis point (0.03%) on two offsetting
transactions with Intel and MS.
• MS ends up earning at LIBOR – 0.3% - 0.015% = LIBOR – 0.315%:
– Receives LIBOR
– Pays x%
– Receives 4.7%
We have LIBOR - x% + 4.7% = LIBOR – 0.315% x = 5.015%
• Intel ends up earning at 4.8% - 0.015% = 4.785%
– Receives LIBOR – 0.2%
– Pays LIBOR
– Receives y%
We have LIBOR - 0.2% – LIBOR + y% = 4.785% y = 4.985%
y=4.985% x=5.015%
4.7%
Intel F.I MS
LIBOR-0.2%
154
LIBOR LIBOR
Market Makers
• Many large financial institutions act as market makers for swaps,
since unlikely that two companies have completely compatible
needs.
• Bid/Offer rates differ by 3 to 4 basis points. Average of bid and offer
rates is the swap rate.
• Bfix = Value of fixed-rate bond underlying the swap
• Bfl = Value of floating-rate bond underlying the swap
• Swaps have zero value, so Bfix = Bfl.
52
Day Count
Confirmations
• At initial:
‒ AAACorp borrows fixed-rate funds at 4%
‒ BBBCorp borrows floating-rate funds at LIBOR+0.6%
• After swap:
– AAACorp ends up with floating rate
– BBBCorp ends up with fixed rate
159
53
The Swap (Figure 7.6, page 157)
• Swap:
– AAACorp agrees to pay BBBCorp at LIBOR
– BBBCorp agrees to pay AAACorp at 4.35%
• AAACorp has three cash flows:
– Pays 4% to outside lender
– Receives 4.35% from BBB Corp
– Pays LIBOR to BBBCorp
The net effect of cash flows is that AAACorp pays LIBOR - 0.35% (0.25%
less than it would pay if it went directly to floating-rate market) or Libor-
0.1% - 0.25%
• BBBCorp has three cash flows:
– Pays LIBOR +0.6% to outside lender
– Receives LIBOR from AAACorp
– Pays 4.35% to AAACorp
The net effect of cash flows is that BBBCorp pays 4.95% (0.25% less than
it would pay if it went directly to fixed-rate market) or 5.2% - 0.25%
4.35%
4%
AAACorp BBBCorp
LIBOR+0.6% 160
LIBOR
LIBOR+0.6%
161
LIBOR LIBOR
54
Example
Fixed Floating
Firm A T% Libor
Firm B T% + 2% Libor + 1%
Example
(with FI)
Example
Fixed Floating
Arco 6% Libor + 0.1%
Cooper 6.7% Libor + 0.4%
55
Example
Fixed Floating
Arco 6% Libor + 0.1%
Cooper 6.7% Libor + 0.4%
56
Using Swap Rates to Bootstrap the
LIBOR/Swap Zero Curve
57
Example of determining
Swap/Zero Rates
The 1-year LIBOR rate is 10%. A bank trades swaps where a fixed
rate of interest is exchanged for 12-month LIBOR with payments
being exchanged annually. The 2-and 3-year swap rates (expressed
with annual compounding) are 11% and 12% per annum. Estimate
the 2- and 3-year LIBOR zero rates.
Example of determining
Swap/Zero Rates
The two-year swap rate implies that a two-year LIBOR bond with a
coupon of 11% sells for par. If R2 is the two-year zero rate:
11e−0.10×1.0 + 111e−R2×2.0 = 100
so that R2 = 0.1046. The three-year swap rate implies that a three-
year LIBOR bond with coupon of 12% sells for par. If R3 is the three-
year zero rate
12e−0.10×1.0 + 12e−0.1046×2.0 + 112e−R2×3.0 = 100
so that R3 = 0.1146. The 2- and 3-year rates are 10.46% and
11.46% with continuous compounding.
58
Overnight Indexed Swaps
continued
Credit Risk
• A swap is worth zero to a company initially
• At a future time its value is liable to be either positive or
negative
• The company has credit risk exposure only when its
value is positive
• Some swaps are more likely to lead to credit risk
exposure than others
• What is the situation if early forward rates have a
positive value?
• What is the situation when the early forward rates have
a negative value?
Options, Futures, and Other
Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright 177
© John C. Hull 2012
59
Interest rate swap valuation
60
Valuation in Terms of Bonds
• Principal is not exchange in swap agreements.
• In valuing swaps helpful to think of the principal as being
exchanged. Then from the perspective of the floating-rate payer, a
swap can be regarded as a long position in fixed rate bond and short
position in floating rate bond. Yields a swap value of
Vswap = Bfix − Bfl
where Bfl is the value of the floating-rate bond and Bfix is the value of
the fixed-rate bond.
• From the perspective of the fixed-rate payer, a swap can be
regarded as a short position in fixed rate bond and long position in
floating rate bond. Yields a swap value of
Vswap = Bfl − Bfix
• Note that a bond is worth the notional interest immediately after
interest payment, since LIBOR has just been rolled-over and fair
market value has been issued.
Value = PV
of L+k* at t*
Value = Value = L
L+k*
0 t*
Valuation First Pmt Second
Date Date Pmt Date Maturity
Floating Date
Pmt =k*
61
Example
• Suppose a financial institution has agreed to pay 6-month LIBOR
and receive 8% per annum with semiannual compounding on a
notional principal of $100 million. The swap has a remaining life of
1.25 years. The LIBOR rates with continuous compounding for 3-
month, 9-month, and 15-month maturities are 10%, 10.5%, and
11%, respectively. The 6-month LIBOR rate at the last payment date
was 10.2% with semiannual compounding.
62
Valuation in Terms of FRAs
• A swap can be characterized as a portfolio of FRA’s.
• In the 3-year Microsoft-Intel swap, the first exchange of payments is
known at the swap negotiations.
• The next 5 exchanges can be regarded as forward rate agreements,
i.e. the exchange on Sept. 5, 2005 is an FRA of 5% for interest at the
6-month rate observed March 5, 2005, etc.
• Since FRA’s can be valued by assuming that forward interest rates
are realized, then our plain vanilla swap can be valued via FRA
valuing:
1. Use the LIBOR/swap zero curve to calculate forward rates for each
of the LIBOR rates that will determine swap cash flows
2. Calculate swap cash flows on the assumption that the LIBOR rates
will equal the forward rates
3. Discount these swap cash flows using the LIBOR/swap zero curve to
obtain the swap value
Example
Consider our 1.25 year swap example. Recall:
• Our company pays 6-month LIBOR and receives 8% per annum on
semiannual compounding on a notional principal of $100 million.
• Swap has 1.25 years remaining. LIBOR rates with continuous
compounding are 3-month, 9-month,15-month maturities at 10%,
10.5%, and 11%, respectively. 6-month LIBOR rate at last payment
was 10.2%.
Total value of the swap is the sum of the values of the FRA’s: hence $-4.267 million.
Remarks:
1. Fixed rate in an interest rate swap is chosen so that the swap is worth zero at the
start. Therefore, the at the outset the sum of the values of the FRA’s underlying the
swap is zero.
2. Not all FRA’s have zero value, only the sum is zero.
63
Risk management application
of swap strategies for interest
rate risk
64
Using interest rate swaps to convert a
floating-rate loan to a fixed-rate loan
• Internet Book Publishers (IBP) is a corporation that typically
borrows at a floating rate from a lender called Prime
Lending Bank (PLB). In this case, it takes out a one-year
$25 million loan at 90-day LIBOR plus 300 basis points. The
payments will be made at specific dates about 91 days
apart. The rate is initially set today, the day the loan is taken
out, and is reset on each payment date: On the first
payment date, the rate is reset for the second interest
period. With four loan payments, the first rate is already set,
but IBP is exposed to risk on the other three reset dates.
Interest is calculated based on the actual day count since
the last payment date, divided by 360. The loan begins on 2
March and the interest payment dates are 2 June, 2
September, 1 December, and the following 1 March.
65
Using interest rate swaps to convert a
floating-rate loan to a fixed-rate loan
66
Using interest rate swaps to convert a
floating-rate loan to a fixed-rate loan
• Without showing the details, we shall simply state the result
that a floating-rate bond's duration is approximately the
amount of time remaining until the next coupon payment. For
a bond with quarterly payments, the maximum duration is
0.25 years and the minimum duration is zero. Consequently,
the average duration is about 0.125 years. From the
perspective of the issuer rather than the holder, the duration
of the position is -0.125.
• The duration of IBP's floating-rate loan position in this
example is an average of -0.125, which is fairly low
compared with most financial instruments. Therefore, the
market value of the loan is not very interest-rate sensitive. If
interest rates fall, the loan rate will fall in three months, and
IBP will not have much of a loss from the market value of the
loan. If interest rates rise, IBP will not have much of a gain
from the market value of the loan.
67
Using interest rate swaps to convert a
floating-rate loan to a fixed-rate loan
• Although the duration of the one-year fixed-rate loan is not
large, at least relative to that of bonds and longer-term
loans, it is nonetheless six times that of the floating-rate
loan. Consequently, the sensitivity of the market value of
the overall position is six times what it would have been
had the loan been left in place as a floating-rate loan.
From this angle, it is hard to see how such a transaction
could be called a hedge because declining rates and
increasing market values will hurt the fixed-rate borrower.
The actual risk increases sixfold with this transaction.
68
Example
Consider a bank that holds a $5 million loan at a fixed rate
of 6% for three years, with quarterly payments. The bank
had originally funded this loan at a fixed rate, but because
of changing interest rate expectations, it has now decided
to fund it at a floating rate. Although it cannot change the
terms of the loan to the borrower, it can effectively convert
the loan to a floating-rate loan by using swap. The fixed-
rate on three-year swaps with quarterly payments at LIBOR
is 7%. We assume the number of days in each quarter to
be 90 and the number of days in a year to be 360.
A. Explain how the bank could convert the fixed-rate loan to
floating-rate loan using swap.
B. Explain why the effective floating rate on the loan will be
less than LIBOR
Example
A company has issued floating-rate notes with a maturity
of one year, an interest rate of LIBOR plus 125 basis
points, and total face value of $50 million. The company
now believes that interest rates will rise and wishes to
protect itself by entering into an interest rate swap. A
dealer provides a quote on a swap in which the company
will pay a fixed rate 6.5% and receive LIBOR. Interest is
paid quarterly, and the current LIBOR is 5%. Indicate
how the company can use a swap to convert the debt to
a fixed rate. Calculate the overall net payment (including
the loan) by the company. Assume that all payments will
be made on the basis of 90/360.
An introduction to option
69
Options
• An option is a contract giving the option purchaser (the
buyer) the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a
given amount of the undelying asset at a fixed price per
unit for a specified time period (until the maturity date)
• There are two basic types of options, puts and calls.
A call is an option to buy the undelying asset
A put is an option to sell the undelying asset
• The buyer of an option is termed the holder, while the
seller of the option is referred to as the writer or grantor.
• An American option gives the buyer the right to exercise
the option at any time between the date of writing and the
expiration or maturity date.
• An European option can be exercised only on its
expiration date.
208
209
Options
210
70
The concept of moneyness of an option
Example
212
71
Profit and Loss for the Buyer of a Call
Option on Swiss francs
“At the money”
Profit
Strike price
(US cents/SF)
“Out of the money” “In the money”
+ 1.00
+ 0.50
Unlimited profit
0 Spot price
57.5 58.0 58.5 59.0 59.5 (US cents/SF)
Limited loss
- 0.50
Break-even price
- 1.00
Loss
The buyer of a call option on SF, with a strike price of 58.5 cents/SF, has a limited loss of 0.50 cents/SF at spot rates less
than 58.5 (“out of the money”), and an unlimited profit potential at spot rates above 58.5 cents/SF (“in the money”).
+ 1.00
0 Spot price
57.5 58.0 58.5 59.0 59.5 (US cents/SF)
- 0.50 Unlimited loss
- 1.00
Loss
The writer of a call option on SF, with a strike price of 58.5 cents/SF, has a limited profit of 0.50 cents/SF at spot
rates less than 58.5, and an unlimited loss potential at spot rates above (to the right of) 59.0 cents/SF.
Copyright © 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.
72
Profit and Loss for the Buyer of a
Put Option
• Buyer of a Put:
– The basic terms of this example are similar to those just
illustrated with the call
– The buyer of a put option, however, wants to be able to sell the
underlying currency at the exercise price when the market price
of that currency drops (not rises as in the case of the call option)
– If the spot price drops to $0.575/SF, the buyer of the put will
deliver francs to the writer and receive $0.585/SF
– At any exchange rate above the strike price of 58.5, the buyer of
the put would not exercise the option, and would lose only the
$0.05/SF premium
– The buyer of a put (like the buyer of the call) can never lose
more than the premium paid up front
+ 0.50 Profit up
to 58.0
0 Spot price
57.5 58.0 58.5 59.0 59.5 (US cents/SF)
Limited loss
- 0.50
Break-even
price
- 1.00
Loss
The buyer of a put option on SF, with a strike price of 58.5 cents/SF, has a limited loss of 0.50 cents/SF at spot rates
greater than 58.5 (“out of the money”), and an unlimited profit potential at spot rates less than 58.5 cents/SF (“in the
money”) up to 58.0 cents.
Copyright © 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.
73
Profit and Loss for the Writer of a Put Option
on Swiss francs
“At the money”
Profit
Strike price
(US cents/SF)
+ 1.00
Break-even
+ 0.50 price
Limited profit
0 Spot price
57.5 58.0 58.5 59.0 59.5 (US cents/SF)
Unlimited loss
- 0.50 up to 58.0
- 1.00
Loss
The writer of a put option on SF, with a strike price of 58.5 cents/SF, has a limited profit of 0.50 cents/SF at spot rates
greater than 58.5, and an unlimited loss potential at spot rates less than 58.5 cents/SF up to 58.0 cents.
Copyright © 2007 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.
MTH13
Call Option position
ST ≤ X ST > X
Option value at expiration (payoffs) cT
Long Call cT = max (0, ST – X)
0 *(OTM) ST – X (ITM)
Short Call -cT = -max (0, ST – X)
0 X - ST
Profit
Long Call cT – c0 = max (0, ST – X) – c0
-c0 ST - X– c0
Short Call -cT + c0
c0 X - S T + c0
Breakeven point Maximum profit Maximum loss
Long Call ST* = X + c0 ∞ c0
Short Call ST* = X + c0 c0 ∞
c0 : call option premium
*/: cT cannot sell for less than zero because that would mean that the option seller would have to pay the
option buyer. A buyer would not pay more than zero because the option will expire an instant later with no
value). Special case: ST = X option is treated as OTM because the option is 0 at expiration.
Example
Call option: exercise price: USD2000, premium c =
USD81.75.
• Determine the value at expiration and profit for a buyer
under two outcomes: the price of underlying at expiration
is USD1900 and 2100
• Determine the maximum profit and loss to the buyer
• Determine the breakeven price of the underlying at
expiration
• Graph the value at expiration and the profit
74
Slide 221
Example
Put option: Exercise price USD2000, premium p =
USD79.25.
• Determine the value at expiration and profit for a buyer under
two outcomes: the price of underlying at expiration is
USD1900 and 2100
• Determine the maximum profit and loss to the buyer
• Determine the breakeven price of the underlying at expiration
• Graph the value at expiration and the profit
75
Example
Put option is selling for USD4 in which the exercise price is
USD60 and the price of the underlying is USD62.
• Determine the value at expiration and profit for a buyer under
two outcomes: the price of underlying at expiration is USD62
and 55
• Determine the value at expiration and profit for a seller under
two outcomes: the price of underlying at expiration is USD51
and 68
• Determine the maximum profit and loss to the buyer
• Determine the breakeven price of the underlying at expiration
• Graph the value at expiration and the profit
76
Notation
c: European call option C: American call option
price price
MTH22
Components of Option
Premium = Intrinsic value + Time value
• Intrinsic value is what the option worth to exercise it based
on current conditions. Or intrinsic value is the financial gain
if the option is exercised immediately.
• At expiration, an option will have a value equal to its
intrinsic value because the time remaining is zero or time
value is zero. Therefore, the value max(0,ST - X) for calls or
max(0,X-ST) for puts is the option‘s intrinsic value at
expiration:
– For a call option: Intrinsic value = Spot price – Strike price
Intrinsic value = 0: if the strike price > the spot price
Intrinsic value > 0 (ST - X): if the spot price > the strike price
– For a put option: Intrinsic value = Strike price – Spot price
Intrinsic value = 0: if the strike price < the spot price
Intrinsic value > 0 (X - ST): if the spot price < the strike price
• Prior to expiration, an option will normally sell for more than
its intrinsic value. 231
77
Slide 231
232
X Underlying
233
X Underlying
234
78
Call Value before Expiration
E. Call
X Underlying
235
University of Rennes 1
X Underlying
237
79
Put Value before Expiration
E. Put
X Underlying
238
Intrinsic Value, Time Value & Total Value for a Call Option on British
Pounds with a Strike Price of $1.70/£
Option Premium
(US cents/£)
-- Valuation on first day of 90-day maturity --
6.0
5.67
Total value
5.0
4.0 4.00
3.30
3.0
2.0 1.67
Time value Intrinsic
1.0
value
0.0
1.66 1.67 1.68 1.69 1.70 1.71 1.72 1.73 1.74
80
Exhibit 8.8
Analysis of Call
Option on British
Pounds with a
Strike Price =
$1.70/£
241
242
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.
243
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.
81
Exhibit 8.12 Foreign Exchange Implied Volatility for Foreign
Currency Options, January 30, 2008
244
Copyright © 2010 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.
Example
82
Example
Payoff values
• An option’s value at expiration is called its payoffs
• At expiration, a call option is worth either zero or the
difference between the underlying price and the exercise
price, which is greater:
cT = max (0, ST – X)
CT = max (0, ST – X)
• At expiration, a put option is worth either zero or the
difference between the exercise price and the underlying
price, which is greater:
pT = max (0, X – ST)
PT = max (0, X – ST)
MTH24
83
Slide 249
84
Lower bound for a European put on
non-dividend-paying stock
p=1 S0 = 37
T = 0.5 r = 5% (continuous compounding)
X = 40 D =0
85
Lower bound for options on non-
dividend-paying stock
Option Lower bound
European call c0 ≥ Max[0,S0 – X/(1+r)T] or c0 ≥ Max[0,S0 – Xe-rT]
American call C0 ≥ Max[0,S0 – X/(1+r)T] or C0 ≥ Max[0,S0 – Xe-rT]
European put p0 ≥ Max[0, X/(1+r)T - S0] or p0 ≥ Max[0, Xe-rT- S0]
American put P0 ≥ Max(0,X - S0)
Example
86
Values of Portfolios
Value at expiration
Current value ST ≤ X ST > X
Portfolio A Buy call c0 0 ST − X
Buy bond X/(1+r)T or Xe-rT X X
Total c0 + X/(1+r)T X ST
Portfolio C Buy put p0 X− ST 0
Buy stock S0 ST ST
Total p0 + S0 X ST
Examples
• Suppose that
c = 6.64 S0 = 33.19
T = 219/365 = 0.6 r = 4%
X = 30 D=0
p = 2.75 Bond price = 30/(1 + 0.04)0.6 = 29.30
261
87
Synthetics
• c0 + X/(1+r)T= p0 + S0 c0 = p0 + S0 - X/(1+r)T
• The right-hand side is equivalent to a call, it is referred as to a
synthetic call.
• The call and the synthetic call produce the same thing at maturity but
in different ways
Value at expiration
Current value ST ≤ X ST > X
Call Buy call c0 0 ST − X
Synthetic Buy put p0 X− ST 0
call
Buy stock S0 ST ST
Issue bond -X/(1+r)T -X -X
Total p0 + S0 - X/(1+r)T 0 ST − X
262
Synthetics
• c0 + X/(1+r)T
= p0 + S0 p0 = c0 - S0 + X/(1+r)T
• The right-hand side is equivalent to a put, it is referred as to a
synthetic put.
Value at expiration
Current value ST ≤ X ST > X
Put Buy put P0 X− ST 0
Synthetic put Buy call c0 0 ST − X
Short stock -S0 -ST -ST
Buy bond X/(1+r)T X X
Total c0 - S0 + X/(1+r)T X− ST 0
263
88
Arbitrage Opportunities
• Suppose that portfolio A is a fiduciary call, and portfolio
C is a protective put
c = 7.5, p = 4.25 S0 = 99
T = 0.5 r = 10% (discrete compounding)
X = 100 D=0
265
Arbitrage Opportunities
• Suppose European call and put options. The underlying
makes no cash payments during the life of option.
c = 8, p = 3.75 S0 = 48
T = 115/365 r = 4.5% (discrete compounding)
X = 45 D=0
A. Identifying the mispricing by comparing the price of the
actual call with the price of the synthetic call
B. Based on your answer in Part A, demonstrate how an
arbitrage transaction is executed
266
Arbitrage Opportunities
• Suppose that a stock, a European call and a European
put
c=3 S0 = 31
T = 0.25 r = 10% (continuous compounding)
X = 30 D=0
89
Values of Portfolios
Now After 3 months
Today ST < 30 ST > 30
Borrowing for 3 months 29
Portfolio A Short call 3
Portfolio C Buy put 1
Buy stock 31
At maturity Exercise call: sell stock 30
Repay loan 29.73
Profit 0.27
Exercise put to sell stock 30
Repay loan 29.73
Profit 0.27
90
Lower bound for options and put-call parity on
dividend-paying stock
Lower bound for a European call on dividend-paying stock
• Portfolio A: One European call on a stock + an amount of cash equal to D +
X/(1+r)T or D + Xe-rT
• Portfolio B: one share of the stock
c0 ≥ max[0, S0 - D - X/(1+r)T]
Lower bound for a European call on dividend-paying stock
• Portfolio C: One European put on a stock + one share.
• Portfolio D: an amount of cash equal to D + X/(1+r)T or D + Xe-rT
p0 ≥ max[0, D + X/(1+r)T - S0 ]
Early exercise
• Sometimes it is optimal to exercise an American call prior to an ex-dividend
date
• It is never optimal to exercise a call at other times (see 14.12)
Put-call parity for European option
c0 + D + Xe -rT = p0 + S0 or c0 + D + X/(1+r)T = p0 + S0
Put-call parity does not hold for American option
S0 – D - X ≤ C0 – P0 ≤ S0 – Xe-rT or S0 – D- X ≤ C0 – P0 ≤ S0 – X/(1 + r)T
Variable c p C P
S0 + − + −
X − + − +
T ? ? + +
+ + + +
r + − + −
D − + − +
91
The effect of a difference in stock price
92
The effect of a difference in time to
expiration
• The owner of the longer-term option has all exercise
opportunities open to the owner of the shorter-term option
and more. The longer-term option must therefore always
be worth at least as much as the shorter-term option.
• A longer-term option has more time for the underlying to
make a favorable move. If the option is in-the-money by
the end of a given period of time, it has better chance of
moving even further in-the-money over a longer period of
time.
• If the additional time gives it a better chance of moving
out-of-the-money or further out-of-the-money, the
limitation of losses to the amount of the option premium
means that disadvantages of the longer time is no
greater.
93
The effect of a cash flows on the
underlying asset
• We specify cash flows in the form of dividends, using the
notation PV(CF, 0,T)
• The lower bounds for European option as
c0 ≥ max{0,[S0 - PV(CF, 0,T)] - X/(1+r)T}
p0 ≥ max{0,X/(1+r)T – [S0 - PV(CF, 0,T)]}
The value of the call option is negatively related to the
size of the dividend and the value of the put option is
positively related to the size of the dividend.
94
Option Pricing Models
95
The Binomial model
• Assumptions: It is assumed the underlying asset price movements
consist of a large number of small binomial movements. No arbitrage.
• Principles
– The time to maturity is divided into a large number of time intervals
(step)
– At each step, the stock price moves up or down (2 possible values)
– This produces a tree that represents all the possible paths that the
stock price could take during the life of the option
– At the expiration of the option (end of the tree), all the terminal option
prices on each branch are known. They simply equal their intrinsic
values.
– The option prices at each step of the tree are calculated working back
from expiration to the present
– The option prices at each step are used to derive the option prices at
the next step of the tree using risk neutral valuation;
– The risk neutral is evaluated from the probabilities of the stock prices
moving up or down, the risk free rate and the time interval of each
step.
A Call Option
(Figure 12.1, page 254)
96
Setting Up a Riskless Portfolio
22D – 1
18D
97
Generalization (Figure 12.2, page 255)
S0 u
ƒu = max(0, ST - X)
S0 at expiration
ƒ
S0 d
ƒd
Options, Futures, and Other 292
Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright
© John C. Hull 2012
Generalization
S0uD – ƒu
S0dD – ƒd
• The portfolio is riskless when S0uD – ƒu = S0dD – ƒd or
ƒu fd
D
S 0u S 0 d
Options, Futures, and Other
Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright 293
© John C. Hull 2012
Generalization
• Value of the portfolio at time T is S0uD – ƒu
• Value of the portfolio today is (S0uD – ƒu)e–rT
• Another expression for the portfolio value today is
S0D – f
• Hence
ƒ = S0D – (S0uD – ƒu )e–rT
98
Generalization
where
e rT d
p
ud
p as a Probability
• It is natural to interpret p and 1-p as probabilities of up
and down movements
• The value of a derivative is then its expected payoff in
a risk-neutral world discounted at the risk-free rate
S0u
ƒu
S0
ƒ
S0d
ƒd
Options, Futures, and Other
Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright 296
© John C. Hull 2012
Risk-Neutral Valuation
• When the probability of an up and down movements are
p and 1-p the expected stock price at time T is S0erT
• This shows that the stock price earns the risk-free rate
• Binomial trees illustrate the general result that to value a
derivative we can assume that the expected return on
the underlying asset is the risk-free rate and discount at
the risk-free rate
• This is known as using risk-neutral valuation
99
Original Example Revisited
S0u = 22
ƒu = 1
S0=20
ƒ
S0d = 18
ƒd = 0
p is the probability that gives a return on the stock equal to the
risk-free rate:
20e 0.12 ×0.25 = 22p + 18(1 – p ) so that p = 0.6523
Alternatively:
e rT d e 0.12 0.25 0 . 9
p 0 . 6523
ud 1 .1 0 . 9
Options, Futures, and Other
Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright 298
© John C. Hull 2012
S0u = 22
ƒu = 1
S0=20
ƒ
S0d = 18
ƒd = 0
100
Example
• 11.1, 11.4
A Two-Step: Example2
Figure 12.3, page 260
24.2
22
20 19.8
101
Valuing a Call Option
Figure 12.4, page 260
D 24.2
3.2(=24.1-21)
22
B
20 2.0257 E 19.8
1.2823 A 0.0
18
Start at D, then E, F, C, B, andCA
0.0 F 16.2
Value at node B
–0.12×0.25 0.0
=e (0.6523×3.2 + 0.3477×0) = 2.0257
Value at node A
= e–0.12×0.25(0.6523×2.0257 + 0.3477×0) = 1.2823
Generalization
page 261 S 0u 2
u, p fuu
S0u D
u, p B
S0 fu d, 1-p S0ud
A
f u, p E fud
S 0d
d, 1-p C
fd S 0d 2
d, 1-p
F fdd
72
0
60
50 1.4147 48
4.1923 4(=52-48)
40
9.4636 32
20
X = 52, time step Dt = 1yr
r = 5%, u =1.32, d = 0.8 p = e0.05x1 - 0.8 = 0.6282
1.2 – 0.8
f = e-2x0.05x1(0.62822 x 0 + 2 x 0.6282 x 0.3718 x 4 + 0.37182 x 20) = 4.1923
102
What Happens When the Put Option is American
(Figure 12.8, page 264)
72
0
60
50 1.4147 48
5.0894 4
40
C
12.0(=52-40) 32
20
The American feature increases the value at node C from 9.4636 to 12.0000
(12 is the payoff from early exercise) early exercise is optimal.
This increases the value of the option from 4.1923 to 5.0894 (at A), the payoff
from early exercise is 2 (=52-50) early exercise is not optimal.
Delta
• Delta (D) is the ratio of the change in the price of a
stock option to the change in the price of the underlying
stock
• The value of D varies from node to node
ƒu fd
D
S 0u S 0 d
• It evaluates the number of the underlying stock which
should be hold for each option shorted to create a risk-
neutral portfolio
• The delta of the call (put) is positive (negative)
Example
103
Example
u e Dt
d 1 u e Dt
Girsanov’s Theorem
104
Assets Other than Non-Dividend
Paying Stocks
ad
d 1 u e Dt
p
ud
( r r ) Dt
ae f for a currency w here r f is the foreign
risk - free rate
105
Proving Black-Scholes-Merton from Binomial Trees
j j
pu
where p*
pu (1 p) d
106
The Black-Scholes-Merton Model
– The volatility of the underlying asset, specified in the form of
standard deviation of the log return, is assumed to be known at
all times and does not change over the life of option.
– The risk-free rate is known and constant. This assumption
becomes a problem for pricing options on bonds and interest
rates.
– No tax or transaction costs
– Dividend payments are ignored
– The options are European
• Approach:
– Solving the differential equation, or
– Using risk-neutral valuation
DS mS Dt S Dz
ƒ ƒ 2ƒ 2 2 ƒ
Dƒ mS ½ S Dt S Dz
S t S2 S
107
The Derivation of the Black-Scholes
Differential Equation
108
The Black-Scholes-Merton Formulas
(See pages 313-315)
r: Continuously T: Time remaining until
compounded expiration
risk-free interest rate N(d2): standard normal
cumulative
c S 0 N (d1 ) X e rT N (d 2 ) distribution function
p X e rT N ( d 2 ) S 0 N (d1 )
ln(S 0 / X ) (r 2 / 2)T
where d1
T
: The annualized ln(S 0 / X ) (r 2 / 2)T
standard deviation of d2 d1 T
continuously T
compounded return
Options, Futures, and Other
on the stock Derivatives, 8th Edition, Copyright 325
© John C. Hull 2012
109
Risk-Neutral Valuation
• The variable m does not appear in the Black-
Scholes-Merton differential equation
• The equation is independent of all variables affected
by risk preference
• The solution to the differential equation is therefore
the same in a risk-free world as it is in the real world
• This leads to the principle of risk-neutral valuation
110
Proving Black-Scholes-Merton Using
Risk-Neutral Valuation
(Appendix to Chapter 14)
c e rT max( ST X , 0) g ( ST )dST
X
111