石 油 技 術 協 会 誌 第61巻 第6号 (平成8年11月)

JOURNAL OF THE JAPANESE ASSOCIATION FOR PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY

VOL. 61, NO. 6 (Nov., 1996)

論 文

Stochastic methods for petroleum reservoir characterization

and production forecasting

Roussos Dimitrakopoulos*

(Received May 2,1996; accepted July 26, 1996)

Abstract: Stochastic models of petroleum reservoir geological attributes are used in reservoir
studies to: (i) generate effective reservoir properties at the reservoir gridblock scale; and (ii)
assess uncertainty in reservoir performance forecasting. The present paper formalizes the
methodology in terms of transfer functions and introduces an alternative implementation of the
sequential indicator simulation algorithm based on relative indicator variables. In addition, the
determination of effective block permeabilities from stochastic images of point support-scale
permeability fields is presented in the context of generalized power averages. Applications of the
above are demonstrated in the simulation of reservoir lithofacies and gridblock permeabilities. The
effects of stochastic imaging and reservoir characterization in assessing reservoir forecasting are
illustrated.

Key words: geostatistics, stochastic imaging, petroleum, reservoir characterization, forecasting

of the reservoir and the assignment of effective

1. Introduction
Reservoir flow simulation studies
basis for the understanding, prediction, and
history matching of reservoir performance
during production and optimization of hydro
carbonrecovery. In these studies, the reservoir
is represented in the form of a rectangular grid
of blocks. For each block, effective reservoir
properties such as permeability, porosity and
fluid saturations are assigned. Fig. 1 shows the
general scheme describing reservoir flow simu
lationstudies. Two main issues relevant to this
scheme may be raised. First, history matching
is not unique. The less coarse the adjustments
made to past production data, the more mean
ingfulthe predictions become and, generally,
the better the initial reservoir model (s) the
better the forecast(s). Second, the description
* WH Bryan Mining Geology Research Center, The
University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia 4072
Copyright (C) 1996, JAPT
properties in the reservoir model is not unique.
are the Therefore, Monte Carlo approaches (eg. L,
Holton, 1970) provide better assessment of pro
ductionforecasting and related uncertainties.
Stochastic reservoir description (Haldorsen
and Damsleth, 1990; Omre et al., 1992; Dubrule,
1994; Dimitrakopoulos, 1989, 1991; Deutsch,
1994; Journel and Alabert, 1990; Hewett, 1986;
Matheron et al., 1988; and others) is the model
lingapproach used to: (1) generate effective
properties of reservoir simulation gridblocks;
and (ii) capture the uncertainty related to res
ervoirdescriptive attributes in a probabilistic
context. The importance of both points (i)
and (ii) may be demonstrated with an exam
pleof a simple five-spot waterflood in a thin,
nearly horizontal, sandstone layer of a clastic
reservoir. Three cases are distinguished, where
the sandstone layer is: (a) homogeneous with
constant permeability; (b) heterogeneous with
log-normal permeability, the same mean as in
 538 Stochastic methods for petroleum reservoir characterization and production forecasting

Fig. 1 Schematic representation of reservoir simulation process.

of reservoir heterogeneity. In addition, it points

out to the differences in forecasting when dif
ferentstochastic descriptions of the same res
ervoirare used. Different possible descriptions
result in several possible performance fore
castsand may assist the assessment of uncer
taintyassociated with forecasted parameters.
In generating stochastic reservoir descrip
tions,heterogeneity may be modelled in a three
stage process (Tyler et al, 1994; Dimitrakopo
ulos,1989; and others). First, the spatial archi-
tecture of reservoir sedimentary facies is sim
Fig. 2 Effects of reservoir description on
hydrocarbon recovery. ulated.Then, reservoir attributes are simulated
within the simulated geological units and at
(a), a log-variance of three and a correlation fine resolution. Finally, the resulting descrip
length less than the size of the simulation tionsare scaled up to reflect the effective pro
gridblocks; and (c) heterogeneous as in pertiesof reservoir gridblocks. The process is
(b), but with permeabilities correlated at dis repeated to generate several possible descrip
tancesup to 2/3 of the size of the reservoir. tionsof the reservoir which are the geologic
Parameters other than permeability are the input to a flow simulator. The final results are
same in all flow simulations. Fig. 2 shows the evaluated and decisions pertinent to reservoir
oil production forecast for the three cases. The management are given.
breakthrough time for the homogeneous reser The present paper, first, presents a general
voirdescription is forecasted at 2.2 years. The framework for dealing with geological uncer
heterogeneous descriptions in cases (b) and taintyin reservoir forecasting. Then, a new
(c) show break-through times at 1.9 years and alternative of a eliminate sequential simulation
1.6 years, respectively. Case (c) is the most (imaging) algorithm is developed based on
realistic one. This example shows a commonly relative indicator variables. The algorithm is
occurring over optimistic production forecast, developed for reservoir characterization pur
which results from the inadequate description posesand for both sedimentary f acies and reservoir

石油技術協会誌 61巻6号 (1996)

 Roussos Dimitrakopoulos 539

attributes. Subsequently, the upscaling reservoir description or the uncertainty about

process is described specifically for effective the State of the world. Fig. 3 graphically shows

permeabilities and in the context of spatial the idea. Two questions follow, first, how to

power averages. Finally, examples are given simulate equally probable images in eq.1, and,

including the effects on forecasting. secondly, how these images are related to reser

voirforecasting. The former question is ad

2. Stochastic imaging, transfer func
dressedin the general context of stochastic
tionsand uncertainty spaces
imaging or geostatistical simulations (Journel,

Core measurements, well logs, seismic data, 1994; Alabert, 1987; Dimitrakopoulos, 1990;

well test and production data represent infor Deutsch 1994; and others). The latter question

mationabout a petroleum reservoir and are is addressed in the general context of transfer

used in quantitative reservoir characterization functions and optimization.

and modelling. However, reservoir models are The reservoir flow simulation process is con

inferences from limited information, the actual ceptualizedhere as a transfer function. The

reservoir attributes are unknown. In more gen input to this includes the reservoir geological

eralterms, it may be said that the"state of the description and a variety of engineering pa

world" is unknown. In dealing with the un rameters,such as relative permeabilities, PVT

knownstate of the world, several possible properties, etc. The output or response are pa

models (images) of the state of the world, rameterssuch as production, water cut, recov

may be used. A series of stochastically simul eryefficiencies and others. A set of values for

atedimages of reservoir geologic attributes one or more response parameters Rsm is defined

constrained to reproducing all available data/ here as

information are used to represent the un

knownreservoir. In formal Rsm={T(Sm,q)}

terms, Sm (2)
denotes a where T(•E) denotes the transfer function, Sm is

sequence of m equally probable states, such a set of m simulated images of the deposit as

that defined in eq. 1, and q stands for engineering

specifications used in the flow simulations. In

where Si|(n) is the ith simulated state or image general, the transfer function can be defined
of the reservoir, conditional to all n data. Sm differently depending on the problem to be

represents the uncertainty about the actual studied. The related process does not need to

Fig. 3 Describing uncertainty about the state of the world.

J. JAPANESE ASSOC. PETROL. TECHNOL. Vol. 61, No. 6 (1996)

 540 Stochastic methods for petroleum reservoir characterization and production forecasting

Fig. 4 Schematic representation of proposed methodology,

see text for details.

be reservoir flow simulation. Fig. 4 schematic

3. Stochastic imaging of reservoir
allypresents the various parts of the methodo
attributes
logysuggested in this section.
For a set of reservoir images and a response In this section, the simulation of images of

parameter from the corresponding reservoir reservoir attributes, such as sedimentary litho

simulations, Rsm is a sequence of responses that faciesand permeabilities, is visited. First, as

can be seen as a map of the possible responses pectsof relative indicator variables (Dimitra-

or, more formally, as a map/description of the kopoulos and Dagbert, 1993) are examined.

space of uncertainty of the response. Mapping of Subsequently, sequential simulation is devel

the latter space provides the means for optimal opedbased on relative indicators. An example

decision making and reservoir management. It follows.

is important to note that the transfer function 3.1 Relative indicator variables and

' flow simulation' is non linear. Consequently, kriging in modelling conditional

(i) an average type map of the state of the distributions

world does not provide an average expected Following the standard geostatistical termi

map of the space of response uncertainty; and nology,a reservior geologic attribute is con

(ii) a criterion for generating reservoir de ceptualisedas a staionary and ergodic Random

scriptionsis defined: the approach selected Function (RF), {Z(x), x•¸D}, of spatial co

must be evaluated in terms of the map of the ordinatesin field D. Given Z(x), a stationary

uncertainty of the response, not the maps of indicator random function is defined, I(x;z)={1 if Z(x)•†z 0 otherwise (3)

the description of the world.

石油技術協会誌 61巻6号 (1996)

 Roussos Dimitrakopoulos 541

and D={x: I(x;z)=1}. Then, the cumulative within a sequence is of critical importance to

conditional distribution function (ccdf) the resulting model. Evidently, different se

F(x;z|(N)) can be estimated from quencingof the same variables will result in

different models. The proper sequencing can

only be decided upon the physical characteris

ticsof the phenomenon under study. For exam

where the weights ăa (xa;z) are derived using ple,the sequencing of rock types in a reservoir

the ordinary kriging equations. can be decided on the basis of a geological

Given a series of k threshold values zi with zl interpretation. Considering that different inter

<•c<zk, field D may be partitioned into rela pretationsmay exist, it seems reasonable that a

tivesubfields, such that Dk•¼•c•¼Dl and Di={x: modelling approach should produce different

x•¸Di-1, Ii(x;zi)=1} with i=2,•c•c,k. In this case results for different interpretations.

and for i>1, the ith indicator RF is defined 3.2 The concept of sequential simulation

relative to the previous one and is, apparently, Consider a stationary and ergodic RE Z(x)

different from the indicator RF corresponding with a multivariate probability density func

to the same threshold value in the convention tionf(x1,•c, xM; z1,•c,ZM). Sequential simulation

alindicator kriging (Journel,1984). As a result, is based on the decomposition of the multi

eq. 4 can not be used as in indicator kriging. variateprobability density function (pdf) of

However, if one recalls Bayes relation, then eq. the RE Z(x) into a product of univariate condi

4 is rewritten to express relative indicator krig tionaldistributions (Johnson, 1987), f(x1,•c,xM;z1,•c,zM)=f(x1;z1)•Ef(x2;z

ing,such that

[1-F(x;zi|(Ni))]*
=„Pj=1i[Ij(x;zj)|(Nj)]* (5)

with

•Ef(xM;zM|Z(xa)=Za,M-1) (8)
[Ii(x;zi)|(Ni)]* where M is the number of locations in the
=Prob*[Z(x)•†zi|x•¸Dj-1,(Ni)] reservoir and za is a value at location xa{a=1,•c,

=‡”a=1NiƒÉai(xa;zi)Ii(xa;zi) (6) M-1}. The decomposition in eq. 8 shows that

where the weights ăai(xa;z) are derived using when generating a realisation of Z(x), the first

the simple or ordinary kriging equations and drawing comes from the marginal distribution

the corresponding set of Ni data, subset of the f(x1;z1). The second drawing comes from the
full data set N. The advantage of relative indi distribution f(x2;z2|Z(x1)=z1), which is condi

catorkriging is the reduction of order relation tionalto the value z1 drawn from f(x1;z1), and

problems that may arise in the estimation of a so on.

ccdf when conventional indicator kriging is If all the univariate conditional distributions

used. functions (cdf) in eq. 8 are known, images of

To perform kriging as required in eqs. 4 and Z(x) can be simulated by sequentially drawing

6, the corresponding relative indicator vario from each of the M conditional distributions. In

gramis required. The variogram of the ith rela practice, an initial data set, {z(xa),

tiveindicator is defined as a=1,•c,N< M}, is available. The sequential drawing begins

at the N+1 step and the first value comes from

(7)
ƒÁ(h)=1/2Var{Ii(x+h)-Ii(x)]|x,x+h•¸Di} the univariate conditional distribution

and it is estimated using the standard experi

mentalvariogram f(xN+1;zN+1|Z(xa)=za,a=1,•c,N)
calculation formula and Subsequently, the remaining pdf's are esti
number of pairs within the corresponding sub matedone by one, each time conditional to
fieldDi. the previously drawn values. The simulation
The ordering of the qualitative variables and drawings stop when the last conditional

J. JAPANESE ASSOC. PETROL. TECHNOL. Vol. 61, No. 6 (1996)

 542 Stochastic methods for petroleum reservoir characterization and production forecasting

distribution is estimated and a value is picked ccdf at location xM.

from it. SRIS generates images of continuous varia
3.3 Sequential relative indicator simula bleswhen combined with within class in
tion(SKIS) terpolation(Deutsch and Journel, 1992). For
SRIS is the sequential simulation im categorical variables, the technique may be for
plementationbased on the estimation of uni mulatedas follows: (a) order the lithologies
variateconditional distributions using a rela with some criteria, and (b) generate images of
tiveindicator kriging approach, instead of the the categories. The main drawback of this ap
regular indicator kriging (Journel and Ala proachis that in reality the ordering of geolo
bert,1990). Consider an RF Z(x) discretized in gicalunits such as lithologies may drastically
to k mutually exclusive classes, using a series differ from location to location, thus the result
of cut-offs similarly to indicator kriging. The ingmodels may not be geologically consistent.
SRIS objective is the simulation of the spatial To deal with the problem, relative indictor sim
distribution of the K class indicators. The re ulationis implemented pairwise, as shown in
latedalgorithm is as follows: the next section.
• Define a random path to be followed in visit 3.4 Imaging of reservoir lithofacies archi
ingeach location x (or grid node) to be simu tecture
lated.There are M grid nodes to be visited. In this section, the pairwise implementation
• Estimate at the first location , say x1, the of SRIS for categorical variables is used to
whole cumulative cdf (ccdf) of Z(x), using generate images of the sedimentary lithofacies
relative indicator kriging from eq. 4 and for k in part of a petroleum reservoir. The available
classes zk, k=1,•c,K data come from 14 wells where sedimentary
F(x1;zk|(N))* facies have been identified and correlated from
=Prob*{Z(x1)•…z|(N)} (9a) well to well, given the geological interpretation
• Draw a value (class) from the ccdf at the of the deposit. Five facies have been identified
first location x1 and add the corresponding re in a sequence according to the geology of the
sultsin the data set. The new data set is now deposit and coded as A, B, C, D, and E. Note that
{z(xa),a=1,•c,N+1} facies A are non-reservoir facies. Five relative
• Move to the second location in the path , say indicator variables were defined, with the first,
x2, and estimate the local ccdf for the k classes I1, involving facies A and the remaining, the
F(x2;zk|(N+1))* second I2 including facies B and the remaining,
=Prob*{Z(x2)•…z|(N+1)} (9b) exuding A, and so on. Fig. 5 shows a section
• Draw a value from the estimated ccdf , add which includes five of the 14 wells and the
the value in the data set, move to x3, and repeat lithofacies identified in each of the wells
the process until a value is drawn from the last Following eq. 7, experimental average horizontal

Fig. 5 Section with five wells and the lithofacies identified in

each well.

石油技術協会誌 61巻6号 (1996)

 Roussos Dimitrakopoulos 543

Fig. 6 Experimental and model variograms of the four reservoir

lithofacies relative indicators I1 (top) to I4 (bottom): horizontal and
vertical variograms are left and right, respectively. The model
parameters are listed in Table 1.

and vertical variograms for each of the previous sections and using blocks of 200m by
relative indicators were calculated and models 200m by 2m. To provide an insight to the
fitted. The experimental variograms and fitted sequential process of generating the final
models are shown in Fig. 6, while the parame image of the reservoir lithofacies, Fig. 7 shows
tersof the models are given in Table 1. the"sequential filling"of the reservoir grid
The conditional simulation of the five rela blocks with corresponding lithofacies for facies
tiveindicators was performed as described in A, B and remaining, as well as the corresponding

J. JAPANESE ASSOC. PETROL. TECHNOL. Vol. 61, No. 6 (1996)

 544 Stochastic methods for petroleum reservoir characterization and production forecasting

Fig. 7 Images of the sequentially generated two first lithofacies and

the corresponding final image. Note that this is the same
section shown in Fig. 5.

Table 1 Variogram models of lithofacies in a eralizedpower averaging (Dimitrakopoulos

petroleum reservoir (all models are and Desbarats, 1993). An example illustrates
spherical). the related intricacies.
4.1 A methodology for upscaling
Upscaling refers to the passing from one
scale of description to a larger one, usually
from core support-scale to the reservoir grid
- block support-scale, as needed for reservoir
flow simulation studies. Permeability being by
final simulated image. The section in Fig. 7 far the most challenging reservoir property in
is the same shown in Fig. 5. terms of upscaling and reservoir forecasting, is
the focus of this section. After generated
4. Imaging and effective block
images of reservoir lithofacies, SRIS may also
permeabilities be used to simulate fields of reservoir core
In this section, the simulation of images of support-scale permeabilities within each litho
reservoir attributes previously developed is faciesand the final images can be scaled up to
linked to the effective properties of reservoir the required gridblock scale.
grid blocks and, specifically, to horizontal and A general spatial averaging method is de
vertical permeabilities. First, definitions and finedhere for the combination of core support
methodology are presented. Subsequently, a -scale permeabilities into block support-scale
formulation for deriving effective block per values, based on two steps: (i) imaging of core
meabilities is presented in the context of a gen scale data using a high resolution grid and a

石 油技 術 協 会 誌 61巻6号 (1996)
 Roussos Dimitrakopoulos 545

Fig. 8 True effective permeabilities versus effective permeabilities

derived from generalized power average : horizontal permeabi
litieson the left and vertical on the right.

technique like SRIS; and (ii) upscaling to the effective permeability within a reservoir litho

reservoir blocks based on generalized power typerequires the following steps: (i) infe

averaging. In implementing this scheme, block renceof the basic statistical properties of the

support-scale permeability, kV, is defined as a available core data; (ii) stochastic imaging of

spatial"power average"of core support-scale core support-scale permeabilities; (iii) deter

permeabilities over the reservoir grid block of minationof the power averaging constant ƒÖ;

volume V and (iv) upscaling using spatial power averag

ing.Points (iii) and (iv) are further discussed

kV=[1/V•çvk(x)ƒÖdx]1/ƒÖ for ƒÖ•‚0
in the following section.

4.2 Power averaging and imaging of

kv=exp[1/V•çv lnk(x)dx]=kg
effective block permeabilities in a
for ƒÖ=0 (10)
reservoir unit

where u is the power averaging constant in One of the sedimentary lithofacies of the

ferredfrom the data, as shown in a subsequent reservoir simulated in a previous section is

section, and kg is the geometric mean. Equation used in this section to illustrate the upscaling

10 is a generalization of averaging. When ƒÖ is of reservoir horizontal and vertical permeabil

set to -1,0 and 1 the spatial harmonic, geomet ities.Fig. 9 shows the variograms of core per

ricand arithmetic averages are obtained re meabilitiesand fitted models. The power aver

spectively. agingconstant co is determined for given con

Major justification for defining effective ditions,using the following graphical method.

block permeabilities with eq.10 is the excellent It can be shown that inky is a linear function

results it generates. Fig. 8 shows a comparison of ƒÖ

of effective horizontal and vertical permeabili lnkv_??_ƒÖ[ƒÁ(V,V)/2]+lnkg (11)

tiesfrom eq.10, plotted against the correspon where kg is the spatial geometric average iden

dingtrue effective permeabilities, ke, derived ticalto eq. 10,ƒÁ(V, V) is derived from charts

numerically by first solving the single-phase, (David, 1977). Accordingly, ƒÖ is inferred from

steady-state unidirectional flow equations and, the following steps: (i) simulation of a series

subsequently, determining the total flux of point support-scale permeabilities within a

through the system. Note that kG in Fig. 8 is the reservoir block; note that point support-scale

ensemble geometric mean defined as kG=eƒ¿, permeabilities reproduce the characteristics of

where ƒ¿ is the mean of point support-scale the data; (ii) calculation of the actual effec

log-permeability. The variance of the log- tivehorizontal and vertical permeabilities by

permeabilities in the example is 4.06. solving the corresponding flow equations ; and

In summary, the full field modelling of block (iii) application of eq. 11.

J. JAPANESE ASSOC. PETROL. TECHNOL. Vol. 61, No. 6 (1996)

 546 Stochastic methods for petroleum reservoir characterization and production forecasting

Fig. 9 Experimental and model (exponential) variograms of core support

scale permeabilities.

Fig. 10 Derivation of power averaging from eq. 11.

Fig. 10 shows the plots corresponding to the tratethe effect of stochastic imaging and reser
application of eq. 11. The intercepts from the voircharacterization on production forecasts.
plots show the term ƒÖ[ƒÁ(V,V)/2] to be 0.5 and The example is derived from a waterflood in a
-0 .3 for horizontal and vertical flow respec Latin American reservoir with 62 producers
tively.The term ƒÁ(V, V) is found to be 1.42 and 29 injector wells in a 9-spot pattern on 80
and, finally, ƒÖ is 0.7 and -0.4 for horizontal acre spacing. The initial forecast based on a
and vertical flow respectively. Using the ƒÖ's conventional, non stochastic reservoir descrip
derived from eq.11, point support-scale perme tionpredicted a 24% recovery efficiency by
abilitiessimulated within the sedimentary 1990, out of a 32% expected total. The actual
unit considered are upscaled, thus generating recovery efficiency by 1990 was 18% or about
images of horizontal and vertical effective per $80 milion less revenues than expected in
meabilitiesat the reservoir grid block scale. three years of operation. The new study that
Permeabilities of any reservoir unit can be followed in 1990, based on a stochastic reser
modeled similarly. voirdescription, predicted a recovery efficien
cyat 26% by 1995. In the last quarter of 1994
5. Effects on production forecasting
the actual recovery efficiency reached 27%,
A short example may be used here to illus well within the expected range and stochastically

石油技術協会誌 61巻6号 (1996)

,
 Roussos Dimitrakopoulos 547

Fig. 11 Normalized recovery efficiency for 10 stochastic

reservoir descriptions.

generated bounds. the upscaling and determination of horizontal

Fig. 11 shows the normalized recovery effi and vertical effective reservoir gridblock per
ciencyfor 10 stochastically generated descri meabilities.The effects of stochastic reservoir
ptionsof the reservoir plotted against the in description are evident in both more accurate
jectedpore volume. Normalized recovery effi forecasts and in mapping the uncertainty ass
ciencyis defined as the recovery for a given ociatedwith relevant parameters.
stochastic reservoir description divided by the
Acknowledgements
recovery corresponding to the non stochastic
"average" description of the reservoir
. Fig. 11 Funding was provided from the National Sci
makes two important points. First, it explains enceand Engineering Research Council of
the over optimistic forecasts which result from Canada research grant no. P 0105803 to RD.
the inadequate description of reservoir hetero
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