ASCE 4-16 PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS

Section 5.5

5.5.1 Simulation Method

• Latin hypercube (LHS) recommended

• Random parameters:

– . Ground motion time histories

– Structure stiffness

– Structure damping

– Include statistical dependences between stiffness and damping

5.5.2 Variability of Structural Stiffness and Damping.

• Stiffness and damping properties shall be considered lognormal.

• The best-estimate stiffness and damping shall be compatible with the expected
stress levels in the structure when subjected to the input motion.

• Because of the stress-level dependency, the stiffness and damping are correlated
5.5.4 Input Motion

The input shall consist of an ensemble of input N motion sets (N ground acceleration
time series sets). Each set shall consist of 2 horizontal and 1 vertical components.

5.5.4.1 Method 1: Input Motion Defined as Time Series shall be developed using:

1) N acceleration time series sets compatible with the control motion (FIRS, free
surface).

2) Time series that match simulated response spectra shapes with the control motion.

• The N time series sets shall be conditioned to match the control motion as an
ensemble.
• The horizontal components shall include component-to-component directional
variability.

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 • If the scarcity of recorded seed motions prevents the generation of N time series
sets, generate a subset of n sets and randomly recycling this subset to fill the
ensemble of N.

5.5.5 Response Analysis Simulations

Responses may be considered lognormal.

5.5.5.2 Latin Hypercube Simulation. Minimum N = 30.

Probabilistic Response Analyses DETAILS (Kennedy, 2016)

Use Latin Hypercube Method, number of response analyses to be performed: N = 32

Establish probabilistic distribution function (PDF) for parameter to be randomized

Select N equally likely values for each parameter considered

Randomly combine equally likely parameters making sure each value is only used once
(LHC).

N=30 or 32 provide reasonably stable results between 20% and 80% NEP range
(Kennedy, 2016)

I. Ground Motion for Probabilistic Input

1. Target 5% damped horizontal response spectrum (SSE or GMRS)

2. Establish target 5% damped vertical response spectrum.

• Develop N time-histories each of three orthogonal directions that satisfy that, over m
frequencies in range from 2 Hz to 50 Hz, for each time history:

m ln(SAf /TSAf) = 0

Scale each time history to achieve this goal.

• At each frequency between 2 Hz and 50 Hz, for N time histories, determine median
ratio of (SAf/TSAf) and natural log standard deviation ( f).

• Condition time histories until for all frequencies between 2 Hz and 50

Hz:
Medianf = 0.9 to 1.1 (3)

f < 0.1 (4)

1. To account for directionality effects, scale each horizontal time-history

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 by FHi for horizontal component 1, and (1/FHi) for horizontal component
2 where each FHi is selected by Latin hypercube procedure from a
lognormal distribution

2. Median FH = 1.0 (5)

H = 0.16 to 0.21 (6)

Similarly scale each of the vertical time-histories by randomly selected FVi

based on the following properties:

Median FV = 1.0 (7)

 V = 0.18 to 0.34 (8)

FHi and FVi are uncorrelated and each should be independently random sampled

II. Stiffness Variability

Scale member stiffnesses by equal probability factors FKi selected from lognormal PDF
with median = 1.0,  K = 0.30 to 0.35

Do not select too large  K (the larger  K, the lower the peak resonance response at any
NEP)

IV Damping Variability

Example
Median Damping: 7%

1Damping: 5%
Damp = n(7/5) = 0.34

Select N equally likely damping values from lognormal distribution

V. RESULTS

Estimating Median Response and Variability from N Trials. Fit to lognormal

Order trials from high to low. At each result value the EP = Exceedance Probability

EP = (1f 1 )/(N + f 2 ). We will take f 1 = 3/8 and f 2 = 1/4

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6.2.1.3 Probabilistically Defined In-Structure Response Spectra.

Individual ISRS of each simulation shall be input to the seismic analysis and/or
qualification of subsystems.

Fragility curves are developed with the lognormal model. The result for each
element is the median capacity and the logarithmic standard deviations for
randomness and uncertainty.

The procedure for calculating the three fragility parameters for an element involves
analysis of response and capacity parameters. The significant parameters typically
included in fragility analysis, including capacity and response variables.

References:

• Overview of Probabilistic Seismic Response Evaluation, by Bob Kennedy, Early

SPRA Workshop, April 7-9, 2015

• EPRI TR-103959, Methodology for Developing Seismic Fragilities, June 1994

• Design Earthquakes Based on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis, 2012, Shun-

Hao Ni, Ph. D thesis, University of Waterloo
• Seismic Fragility Applications Guide Update, EPRI 1019200 Final Report,
December 2009

• Probabilistic SSI Analysis Per ASCE 4-16 Standard; A Significant Improvement

for Seismic Design- Basis Analysis and Fragility Calculations, Dan M. Ghiocel,
2016 US DOE Natural Phenomena Hazards Meeting, Germantown, MD, October
18-19, 2016

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 ASCE 4-16 and EPRI TR-1019200 and Kennedy: Basic Response Variables for
Fixed-Base Structures
▪ Ground Motion
– Horizontal component response spectrum shape
– Horizontal direction peak response
– Vertical component response
▪ Damping
▪ Modeling
– Frequency
– Mode Shape
– Torsional coupling
▪ Mode Combination
▪ Earthquake component combination
▪ Capacity
▪ Strength
❖ Material properties
❖ Strength equation
▪ Inelastic Energy Absorption

Ground Motion Variables

Single horizontal ground motion parameter selected for fragility analysis; PGA.
All three ground motion response spectra are considered
– Two horizontal
– One vertical
Single ground motion parameter is average of two horizontal direction parameters
– Vertical input is related to horizontal

Horizontal Component Response Spectrum Shape Variability

Incorporated into aleatory variability included in probabilistic seismic hazard estimates

Double counted if also included in fragility variability

Horizontal Direction Peak Response

Ground motion variable is average of two horizontal directions responses

– One horizontal direction response is higher
– Other horizontal direction response is lower

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Median factor is 1.0

Variability is all randomness, recent studies show:

 r 0.16 to 0.21 (Higher than recommended in TR-103959)

Vertical Component Response Spectrum Variability

Fragilities are in terms of Geomean Horizontal Response Spectrum

Must estimate conditional Vertical/Horizontal Response Spectra variability. Typically

 V/H 0.18 to 0.34

Split between random variability and uncertainty

V/H,R 0.707  V/H
V/H,U 0.707  V/H

Damping

• Damping is generally assumed to be strain dependent

• Recommend values should be based on ASCE 4-16 and ASCE 43-05
• Damping for ISRS should c orrespond to dominant contributors to seismic risk

Modeling (Frequency)
– Decrease of vibration frequency due to softening near failure is reflected in the
inelastic energy absorption factor
– Modal frequencies depend on masses and stiffnesses and complexity of model
– Variability for frequency effects is all uncertainty
– Values for frequency are only 1/2 values for mass and stiffness because

– Structure mass variability is relatively small compared to stiffness term (m=0.05)

– Stiffness for concrete depends on whether specified or actual data is used
– E and G from specified 28 day strength are realistic for frequency calculation
– Use 70 percent of E and G values from estimated aged fc’
– stiffness = 0.27

Frequency Variability

f 0.5 √m2stiff

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To account for modeling errors might increase  f some  f 0.15 to 0.20

Modeling (Mode Shape) Based on experience:

– Median mode shape factor is 1.0
– The βu depends on complexity (βu = 0.05 to 0.15)
– The βu values are for structure response

– Mode shape variability between earthquake directions may be dependent

– Dependent if similar dynamic properties
– Independent if dissimilar dynamic properties

Mode Combination
▪ Response combination is random due to random phasing of modal responses
▪ Applicable for both response spectrum as well as modal and direct integration
When modal contributions are known:
– Determine FS directly

Earthquake Component Combination

• Combination of 2 horizontal and vertical component responses
• SRSS procedure is considered to be median centered
• 100-40-40 can be used, which is slightly conservative compared to SRSS
• Variability on response is due entirely to random phasing of input motions

▪ For following assumptions

– Less than 0.001 chance that the three largest responses occur at same time
– Less than 0.01 chance that the two largest responses occur at same time

Always conservative to use x = 2.3

If lowest two responses are at least 20 percent of largest x = 3.0
Upper-bound  r = 0.18 for response can always be used

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