Decision Science-1

NMIMS Global Access
School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)

Course: Decision Science
Internal Assignment Applicable for April 2024 Examination
Assignment Marks: 30
Instructions:
 All Questions carry equal marks.
 All Questions are compulsory
 All answers to be explained in not more than 1000 words for question 1 and 2 and for
question 3 in not more than 500 words for each subsection. Use relevant examples,
illustrations as far as possible.
 All answers to be written individually. Discussion and group work is not advisable.
 Students are free to refer to any books/reference material/website/internet for
attempting their assignments, but are not allowed to copy the matter as it is from the
source of reference.
 Students should write the assignment in their own words. Copying of assignments
from other students is not allowed.
 Students should follow the following parameter for answering the assignment
questions.
For Theoretical Answer For Numerical Answer

Assessment Parameter Weightage Assessment Parameter Weightage
Introduction 20% Understanding and usage of 20%
Concepts and Application 60% the formula
related to the question Procedure / Steps 60%
Conclusion 20%
Correct Answer & 20%
Interpretation
Q1. Calculate the probability for the following statements. Draw the Probability tree diagram
also.
In a medical college of Pune (a class of 100 people), 30 % people Like to have Misal-pav on
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the farewell party as per the google form survey. Remaining people have chosen vadapav.
Out of those who have chosen Misal-p.av 50 % said that they would eat only Jain Misal pav.
Well,
30 % of those have chosen Vadapav, also said they would have Jain Vadapav only.
 What is the stack (percent & number) of people Who will have Jain Food (including
MISal pav and Vadapav)
 What is the probability of selecting a person who would eat Misal pav given that
person’s diet type is Jain. (10 Marks)
Note: Handmade drawing of Diagram is prohibited; prepare it with the help of software like
MS-Word.
Answer:
Total number of people: 100
Percentage of people who like Misal-pav: 30%
Percentage of people who like Vadapav: 100% - 30% = 70%
Among those who like Misal-pav:
50% prefer Jain Misal-pav
50% prefer Non-Jain Misal-pav
Among those who like Vadapav:
30% prefer Jain Vadapav
70% prefer Non-Jain Vadapav
Let's calculate the probabilities and draw the probability tree diagram.
Total People (100)
/ \
Misal-pav (30) Vadapav (70)
/\ /\
Jain (15) Non-Jain (15) Jain (21) Non-Jain (49)
Now, let's calculate the probabilities and answer the questions:
Stack of people who will have Jain Food:
Jain Misal-pav: 15
Jain Vadapav: 21
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Total: 15 + 21 = 36 people
Percentage: (36/100) * 100 = 36%
Probability of selecting a person who would eat Misal pav given that person’s diet type is
Jain:
Probability of selecting a person who eats Jain Misal-pav: 15/100

Total probability of selecting a person who eats Jain food: 36/100
Probability = (Probability of Jain Misal-pav) / (Probability of Jain Food)
= (15/100) / (36/100)
= 15/36
≈ 0.4167 or 41.67%
In the diverse tapestry of culinary preferences that color our social gatherings, selecting food
becomes critical, showing social dispositions and specific preferences. In this context, a
captivating circumstance unfolds within the districts of a medical university in Pune, where a
friend of 100 individuals is preparing for a farewell celebration. The menu selection for this
special event has been shaped by a precise survey through Google Forms. This survey not
only determines the choice for two iconic road foods– Misal-pav and Vadapav– but delves
deeper into the nuanced choices within these culinary realms. The appealing dynamics
include considerations for both nutritional and cultural proclivities, with participants sharing
Q 2. Write the interpretation for the following regression model. You are advised to run
the analysis using MS EXCEL.
Here Hiranmayee Dhar, an entrepreneur who is running “Pashminaa” a store of Pashmina
shawls. She is targeting customers via social media applications; she has chosen Instagram as
a platform and had also chosen REELs to advertise her products. She is looking for a
forecasting model to understand the impact of no of likes of the REELs demonstrating
product and its sales (in number of units). (10 Marks)
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Reel Number Number
Number of units of likes
sold
Reel 1 24 1503
Reel 2 24 1564
Reel 3 24 1649
Reel 4 24 1882
Reel 5 26 1924
Reel 6 28 1937
Reel 7 28 1944
Reel 8 29 2086
Reel 9 30 2150
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Reel 10 31 2215
Reel 11 32 2366
Reel 12 32 2472
Reel 13 35 2622
Reel 14 35 2792
Reel 15 36 2871
Reel 16 36 2973
Reel 17 38 3000
Reel 18 38 3024
Reel 19 39 3319
Reel 20 40 3336
Reel 21 41 3337
Reel 22 41 3413
Reel 23 41 3479
Reel 24 42 3577
Reel 25 46 3617
Reel 26 46 3922
Reel 27 46 4332
Reel 28 48 4562
Reel 29 48 4577
Reel 30 48 4763
Reel 31 49 4964
 Write the regression model.
 Discuss the R-square, Multiple R
 Discuss the ANOVA
 Discuss the Significance of Independent variable and B1 value.
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Answer:
Regression Model:
The regression model can be represented as:
Number of units sold = 0 + 1
×
Number of likes
Number of units sold=β 0 +β 1×Number of likes

Here, β 0 is the intercept, and β1 is the slope coefficient.
R-square (R²) and Multiple R:
R-square (R²) measures the proportion of the variance in the dependent variable (Number of
units sold) that is explained by the independent variable (Number of likes). A higher R-square
indicates a better fit of the model to the data.
Multiple R is the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted values of the
dependent variable. It ranges from -1 to 1, where 1 indicates a perfect positive linear
relationship, -1 indicates a perfect negative linear relationship, and 0 indicates no linear
relationship.
ANOVA (Analysis of Variance):
ANOVA tests the overall significance of the regression model by comparing the variability
explained by the model to the variability not explained by the model. The ANOVA table
includes:
Sum of Squares (SS)

Degrees of Freedom (DF)
Mean Square (MS)
F-statistic and its associated p-value.
Significance of Independent Variable and B1 Value:
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The significance of the independent variable (Number of likes) is determined by its associated p-
value in the regression output. A low p-value (typically < 0.05) indicates that the independent
variable is significantly associated with the dependent variable.
B1 (the coefficient of the independent variable) represents the change in the dependent variable
(Number of units sold) for a one-unit change in the independent variable (Number of likes). If
B1 is statistically significant, it implies that there is a significant relationship between the
number of likes on REELs and the sales of Pashmina shawls.
Regressi
on
Statistics
Multiple 0.97
R 95
R 0.95
Square 94
Adjusted
0.95
R
8
Square
Standard 1.66
Error 9
Observat
31
ions
Q3.a) Draw an appropriate chart for the following. Also write your clarification for choosing
that graph. For each variable identify a time-series component present if you consider the
long- term pattern. (5 Marks)
Table: Production of Commercial crops. (Source: RBI)
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Groundnut Rapeseed & Soyabean
(Lakh Mustard (Lakh
Year Tonnes) (Lakh Tonnes)
Tonnes)
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2000-01 64 42 53
2001-02 70 51 60
2002-03 41 39 47
2003-04 81 63 78
2004-05 68 76 69
2005-06 80 81 83
2006-07 49 74 89
2007-08 92 58 110
2008-09 72 72 99
2009-10 54 66 100
2010-11 83 82 127
2011-12 70 66 122
2012-13 47 80 147
2013-14 97 79 119
2014-15 74 63 104
2015-16 67 68 86
2016-17 75 79 132
2017-18 93 84 109
2018-19 67 93 133
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2019-20 100 91 112

2020-21 102 102 126
2021-22 101 118 130
Note: Here you are advised to use Software like EXCEL for making Graphs, copy them and
paste in your assignment file. Snapshots are not allowed.
Answer:
Line Chart:
A line chart is suitable for showing trends over time, which is essential when analyzing time-
series data like the production of commercial crops.
It allows for easy comparison of multiple variables (crops) over the years.
Trends and patterns in each crop's production can be easily observed and analyzed.
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Production of Commercial Crops Over Time
-------------------------------------------------------------
| | | | |
160 | | | | |
| | | | |
| | | | |
140 | | | | |
| | | | |
| | | | |
120 | ___ | | |
| / \ | | |
| / \ | | |
100 | / \ | | |
| / \ | | |
| / \ | | |
80 | / \ | ___ |
| / \ | / \ |
| / \ | / \ |
60 | / \ | / \ |
| / \ | / \ |
|_/_______________________\_|_______/___________\_______|
2000-01 2005-06 2010-11 2015-16 2020-21 2025-26
Year
For each variable, let's identify the time-series component present in the long-term pattern:
Groundnut:
Groundnut production shows a fluctuating trend over the years, with some periods of increase
followed by periods of decrease. There is no clear upward or downward trend over the entire
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period.
Rapeseed & Mustard:
The production of Rapeseed & Mustard appears to have an overall increasing trend over the
years, although there are fluctuations in between.
Soyabean:
Soyabean production also exhibits a fluctuating trend, with some years showing increases and
others showing decreases. However, there is a general increasing trend evident in the long term.
Q3.b) Write the sampling plan for the following study. Also write, what is recommended
according to you, census survey or sample Survey?
Imagine yourself doing PhD in NMIMS, for one of your research papers you do require a
primary survey to understand the social media consumption of LinkedIn users. Your goal is
to understand why they are using LinkedIn, for how many hours a day, and their activities
they do on the same platform. You do have research questionnaire in your hand as per your
proper literature study. Now, the question is about survey and data collection. (5 Marks)
Answer:
Sampling Plan:
Target Population: LinkedIn users.

Sampling Frame: A list of LinkedIn users from various industries and job roles.
Sampling Method: Probability sampling method, specifically stratified random sampling.
Stratification Criteria: Stratify the population based on industry, job role, and level of LinkedIn
activity (e.g., frequent users, occasional users).
Sample Size: Determine the appropriate sample size using a formula or based on the available
resources and time constraints.
Sampling Units: Individual LinkedIn users.
Data Collection Method: Online survey using the research questionnaire.
Data Collection Period: Decide on the duration for data collection, considering the need to
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collect a sufficient number of responses.
Sampling Procedure: Randomly select LinkedIn users from each stratum to ensure
representation across different segments of the population.
Data Analysis: Analyze the survey responses to draw conclusions about the social media
consumption of LinkedIn users.
Recommendation:
For the study on understanding the social media consumption of LinkedIn users, a sample
survey is recommended over a census survey. Here's why:
Cost and Time Efficiency: Conducting a census survey would require surveying the entire
population of LinkedIn users, which can be time-consuming and costly. A sample survey allows
for collecting data from a representative subset of the population, reducing costs and time spent
on data collection.
Feasibility: It may not be feasible to survey every LinkedIn user due to the large size of the
population. A sample survey allows researchers to obtain meaningful insights from a
manageable sample size.
Statistical Rigor: Probability sampling methods ensure that each LinkedIn user has an equal
chance of being selected for the survey, leading to statistically valid results. A well-designed
sample survey can provide reliable estimates of the social media consumption patterns of
LinkedIn users.
Resource Allocation: By focusing resources on surveying a representative sample, researchers

can allocate resources effectively to ensure data quality and analysis, leading to more robust
research findings.
**********

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NMIMS Global Access

School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)

For Theoretical Answer For Numerical Answer

Stack of people who will have Jain Food:

Probability of selecting a person who eats Jain Misal-pav: 15/100

Number of units sold=β 0 +β 1×Number of likes

R-square (R²) and Multiple R:

Sum of Squares (SS)

2019-20 100 91 112

Target Population: LinkedIn users.

Resource Allocation: By focusing resources on surveying a representative sample, researchers

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