Suma de sales Etiquetas de columna

2015 Total general

Etiquetas de fila
1 6025 6025
2 8530 8530
3 7603 7603
4 6973 6973
5 5092 5092
6 5101 5101
7 4704 4704
8 8122 8122
9 7063 7063
10 7510 7510
Total general 66723 66723

m=12

mes demanda (unidad)

1 3794
2 3863
3 5190
4 5783
5 6298
6 6739
7 7107
8 6492 demanda (uni
9 5693
12000
10 5497
11 5958
12 4309
10000
13 4323
14 4517 8330
15 5860 7888 79
8000 7758
7370 7401
16 6552 7107 7060
6739 6552 6599 6742
17 7370 6298 6492 6411
6121
5783 5958 5860
6000 5693
5497
5190
4910
4517 4633
4626
4323
4309
3863
40003794
 8330
7888 79
8000 7758
7370 7401
7107 7060
6739 6552 6599 6742
6298 6492 6411
6121
5783 5958 5860
18 7888 6000 5693
5497
5190
19 8330 4910
4633
4626
4517
4323
20 7401 4309
3863
40003794
21 6599
22 6411
23 6742
2000
24 4910
25 4626
26 4633 0
27 6121 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293

28 7060
28 7758
30 7992
31 8838
32 7770
33 7011
34 6644
35 7102
36 4952
37 5008
38 5034
39 6624
40 7697
41 8240
42 8851
43 9758
44 8176
45 7467
46 7231
47 7334
48 5678
49 5236
50 5299
51 6744
52 7927
53 8561
54 8930
55 9960
56 8548
 Esta forma representa una
segmentación de datos. La
segmentación de datos se
admite en Excel 2010 y
versiones posteriores.
Esta forma representa una
segmentación de datos. La
segmentación de datos se
admite en Excel 2010 y
versiones posteriores.

Si la forma se modificó en Si la forma se modificó en

una versión anterior de Excel
o si el libro se guardó en
Excel 2003 o una versión
anterior, no se puede usar la
segmentación de datos.
una versión anterior de Excel
o si el libro se guardó en
Excel 2003 o una versión
anterior, no se puede usar la
segmentación de datos.

Esta forma representa una

segmentación de datos. La
segmentación de datos se
admite en Excel 2010 y
2015
versiones posteriores. 80000
70000 66723
Si la forma se modificó en
60000
una versión anterior de Excel
o si el libro se guardó en 50000
Excel 2003 o una versión 40000 Etiquetas de c
anterior, no se puede usar la
30000
segmentación de datos.
20000
853076036973 812270637510
10000 6025 509251014704
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 l
10 era
n
ge
al
T ot

demanda (unidad)
triple

9758 9960 componente estacional se repiten

8838 8851 8930

8561 8548
8330 8240 8176
7888 7992 7927
7758 7770 7697
7370 7401 7467 7334
7231
7060 7011 7102
6552 6599 6742 6644 6624 6744
6411
6121
5860 5678
5299
5236
4910 4952 5034
5008
4517 4633
4626
4323
9
 8561 8548
8330 8240 8176
7888 7992 7927
7758 7770 7697
7370 7401 7467 7334
7231
7060 7011 7102
6552 6599 6742 6644 6624 6744
6411
6121
5860 5678
5299
5236
4910 4952 5034
5008
4517 4633
4626
4323
9

1314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950515253545556

372436
 agregado agregado
33871
55000 47750
47750 42442 45625
45000 38837 39583 41959
42442 33871
35000 28294 28369 25706
38837 25000
28294 15000
28369 5000
25706 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
45625 agre- 33871 47750 42442 38837 28294 28369 25706 45625 39583 41959
gado
39583
41959

66723

Etiquetas de columna 2015

l
ra
ne

e estacional se repiten ciclos

id estacion Periodo Demanda Yt Dt/Yt St Gt
1
2 -11
3 -10
4 -9
5 -8
6 -7
7 -6
8 -5
9 -4
10 -3
11 -2
12 -1
1 0 5291.2922 47.726418
2 1 3794 5339.01862 0.71061749 5340.20349 47.7275744
3 2 3863 5386.74504 0.71713066 5389.03935 47.728656
4 3 5190 5434.47146 0.95501468 5490.64551 47.7812384
5 4 5783 5482.19787 1.05486889 5508.46266 47.7519946
6 5 6298 5529.92429 1.13889443 5524.24699 47.7207954
7 6 6739 5577.65071 1.20821478 5579.39139 47.7280405
8 7 7107 5625.37713 1.26338196 5561.91498 47.6644035
9 8 6492 5673.10355 1.14434717 5665.5517 47.7190303
10 9 5693 5720.82996 0.99513533 5665.9011 47.6727994
11 10 5497 5768.55638 0.95292472 5688.21691 47.648052
12 11 5958 5816.2828 1.0243656 5782.81451 47.6938729
1 12 4309 5864.00922 0.73482149 5833.08873 47.6963912
2 13 4323 5911.73564 0.73125733 5964.78977 47.7783765
3 14 4517 5959.46205 0.75795432 6131.13536 47.8940935
4 15 5860 6007.18847 0.97549794 6223.3828 47.9373806
5 16 6552 6054.91489 1.08209613 6238.83343 47.9056748
6 17 7370 6102.64131 1.2076738 6337.10645 47.9548314
7 18 7888 6150.36773 1.28252494 6449.59722 48.017816
8 19 8330 6198.09414 1.34396152 6461.09488 47.9821737
9 20 7401 6245.82056 1.18495239 6526.36944 47.9990504
10 21 6599 6293.54698 1.04853432 6539.08966 47.9646196
11 22 6411 6341.2734 1.01099568 6588.69428 47.9662202
12 23 6742 6388.99982 1.05525124 6630.23059 47.9599449
1 24 4910 6436.72623 0.76281013 6667.07241 47.949094
2 25 4626 6484.45265 0.71339869 6632.77826 47.8688278
3 26 4633 6532.17907 0.70925796 6592.75537 47.7830489
4 27 6121 6579.90549 0.93025652 6610.88388 47.7541072
5 28 7060 6627.63191 1.06523719 6663.97753 47.7593184
6 28 7758 6627.63191 1.17055384 6726.40641 47.7736353
 7 30 7992 6723.08474 1.18874004 6715.19768 47.7160708
8 31 8838 6770.81116 1.30530889 6777.57692 47.7303815
9 32 7770 6818.53758 1.13954054 6846.84711 47.7514035
10 33 7011 6866.264 1.0210793 6893.91878 47.7507401
11 34 6644 6913.99041 0.96095013 6896.37732 47.7065367
12 35 7102 6961.71683 1.02015066 6956.4602 47.7186156
1 36 4952 7009.44325 0.70647551 6883.30822 47.6006506
2 37 5008 7057.16967 0.70963293 6979.98116 47.6485432
3 38 5034 7104.89609 0.70852549 7026.44622 47.6473882
4 39 6624 7152.6225 0.92609389 7087.73848 47.660705
5 40 7697 7200.34892 1.06897597 7191.80489 47.7157548
6 41 8240 7248.07534 1.13685353 7209.91631 47.6868621
7 42 8851 7295.80176 1.21316345 7292.07638 47.7205066
8 43 9758 7343.52818 1.32878907 7407.82846 47.7869028
9 44 8176 7391.25459 1.10617215 7366.66268 47.7000884
10 45 7467 7438.98101 1.00376651 7384.54442 47.6709869
11 46 7231 7486.70743 0.96584514 7432.98725 47.6717402
12 47 7334 7534.43385 0.97339762 7367.11299 47.5609237
1 48 5678 7582.16027 0.74886309 7527.47255 47.6710108
2 49 5236 7629.88668 0.68624872 7492.39188 47.5902484
3 50 5299 7677.6131 0.69018846 7480.6562 47.5323486
4 51 6744 7725.33952 0.87297134 7409.14372 47.4161655
5 52 7927 7773.06594 1.01980352 7470.62621 47.4298936
6 53 8561 7820.79236 1.09464612 7488.72173 47.4012644
7 54 8930 7868.51877 1.13490229 7483.72813 47.3501291
8 55 9960 7916.24519 1.25817225 7584.47291 47.4022402
9 56 8548 7963.97161 1.07333381 7605.34074 47.3763436
10 57 8011.69803
11 58 8059.42445
12 59 8107.15086
1 60 8154.87728
2 61 8202.6037
3 62 8250.33012
4
5
6
7
 Ct Ft et IetI (et)^2 %
Alpha
0.71023103 Beta
0.71661138 Gamma
0.93196687
1.05819634
1.14972434 ME
1.2055091 MAD
1.29992274 MASE
1.12966921 MAPE
1.01712886 σ
0.97267892
1.01829128
0.73824256
0.71023103 3792 -2 2 4 0.00052715
0.71661138 3861 -2 2 4 0.00051773
12000
0.93196687 5067 -123 123 15129 0.02369942
1.05819634 5861 78 78 6084 0.01348781
1.14972434 6388 90 90 8100 0.01429025
1.2055091 6717 -22 22 484 0.00326458
1.29992274 7315 208 208 43264 0.02926692 10000

1.12966921 6337 -155 155 24025 0.02387554

1.01712886 5811 118 118 13924 0.02072721
0.97267892 5557 60 60 3600 0.01091504
1.01829128 5841 -117 117 13689 0.01963746 8000
0.73824256 4304 -5 5 25 0.00116036
0.71023103 4177 -146 146 21316 0.03377284
0.71661138 4309 -208 208 43264 0.04604826
0.93196687 5759 -101 101 10201 0.01723549 6000
1.05819634 6636 84 84 7056 0.01282051
1.14972434 7228 -142 142 20164 0.0192673
1.2055091 7697 -191 191 36481 0.024214
1.29992274 8446 116 116 13456 0.01392557 4000
1.12966921 7353 -48 48 2304 0.00648561
1.01712886 6687 88 88 7744 0.01333535
0.97267892 6407 -4 4 16 0.00062393
1.01829128 6758 16 16 256 0.00237318 2000
0.73824256 4930 20 20 400 0.00407332
0.71023103 4769 143 143 20449 0.03091224
0.71661138 4787 154 154 23716 0.0332398
0.93196687 6189 68 68 4624 0.0111093
0
1.05819634 7046 -14 14 196 0.001983 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1.14972434 7717 -41 41 1681 0.00528487
 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1.2055091 8166 174 174 30276 0.02177177

1.29992274 8791 -47 47 2209 0.00531795
1.12966921 7710 -60 60 3600 0.00772201
1.01712886 7013 2 2 4 0.00028527
0.97267892 6752 108 108 11664 0.01625527
1.01829128 7071 -31 31 961 0.00436497
0.73824256 5171 219 219 47961 0.04422456
0.71023103 4923 -85 85 7225 0.01697284
0.71661138 5036 2 2 4 0.0003973
0.93196687 6593 -31 31 961 0.00467995
1.05819634 7551 -146 146 21316 0.01896843
1.14972434 8323 83 83 6889 0.01007282
1.2055091 8749 -102 102 10404 0.01152412
1.29992274 9541 -217 217 47089 0.02223816
1.12966921 8422 246 246 60516 0.03008806
1.01712886 7541 74 74 5476 0.00991027
0.97267892 7229 -2 2 4 0.00027659
1.01829128 7617 283 283 80089 0.0385874
0.73824256 5474 -204 204 41616 0.03592814
0.71023103 5380 144 144 20736 0.02750191
0.71661138 5403 104 104 10816 0.01962634
0.93196687 7016 272 272 73984 0.04033215
1.05819634 7891 -36 36 1296 0.00454144
1.14972434 8644 83 83 6889 0.00969513
1.2055091 9085 155 155 24025 0.01735722
1.29992274 9790 -170 170 28900 0.01706827
1.12966921 8621 73 73 5329 0.00854001
8217
7904
8323
5650
5469
5552
7265
8299
9071
9568
 0.407855573
0.000975961 m=12
0 N=4

14.5178571
102.089286
15926.6964
1.6%
127.611607

Chart Title
12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53

Demanda Ft
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53

Demanda Ft
Title

38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75

a Ft
38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75

a Ft
T Wreal wt CONDICION DELTA DELTA Ht Ft
0 10 10 0
1 22.00 22.00 0.00 11.51 12.00 0.00
2 20.00 20.00 1.00 -1.44 0.00 2.00
3 19.00 19.00 1.00 -0.60 0.00 1.00
4 14.00 14.00 1.00 -4.44 0.00 5.00
5 12.00 12.00 1.00 -1.62 0.00 2.00
6 18.00 18.00 0.00 5.79 6.00 0.00

FO MAX
$ 135,690,800

ingresos de venta - costo de venta

Knt Preal Pt Pac Dreal Dt Dac It Ipropio Iextra faltantes
1500 1500 0 0
460 6808 6808 6808 8217 8217 8217 91 91 0 0
380 7600 7600 14408 7904 7904 16121 -213 0 0 213
440 8360 8360 22768 8323 8323 24444 -176 0 0 176
400 5600 5600 28368 5650 5650 30094 -226 0 0 226
460 5520 5520 33888 5469 5469 35563 -175 0 0 175
400 5760 5760 39648 5552 5552 41115 33 33 0 0

dias w0 10
23
k 20 19
22
20
23
20

CH 1200000
CF 1500000
Cwp 1500000
CWn 900000
PH 40%
Cf 6000
Cibodega propia 1800
Cibodega extra 1000
Cfbodega extra 2000000
i0 1500
CAP1 propia 1500
CAP2 extra 7000
Wmin 5
wmax 25
Cp 2000
PV 10000
ingreso por venta Ingreso real costo faltante Ci bodega propia Ci bodega extra

$ 83,080,000 $ 82,170,000 $ - $ 163,800 $ -

$ 79,040,000 $ 76,910,000 $ 1,278,000 $ - $ -
$ 83,230,000 $ 81,470,000 $ 1,056,000 $ - $ -
$ 56,500,000 $ 54,240,000 $ 1,356,000 $ - $ -
$ 54,690,000 $ 52,940,000 $ 1,050,000 $ - $ -
$ 55,850,000 $ 55,520,000 $ - $ 59,400 $ -
$ 412,390,000 $ 403,250,000
Cf bodega extra costos produccion costo de salario costos de contrata costo de despedir

$ - $ 13,616,000 $ 25,800,000 $ 14,400,000 $ -

$ - $ 15,200,000 $ 30,000,000 $ - $ 3,000,000
$ - $ 16,720,000 $ 28,500,000 $ - $ 1,500,000
$ - $ 11,200,000 $ 21,000,000 $ - $ 7,500,000
$ - $ 11,040,000 $ 18,000,000 $ - $ 3,000,000
$ - $ 11,520,000 $ 23,400,000 $ 7,200,000 $ -
utilidad

$ 28,190,200
$ 27,432,000
$ 33,694,000
$ 13,184,000
$ 19,850,000
$ 13,340,600

$ 135,690,800
Periodo Demanda Ft et IetI (et)^2 %
1 3794 6651 2857 2856.64286 8160408.41 0.75293697
2 3863 3794 -69 69 4761 0.01786177
3 5190 3863 -1327 1327 1760929 0.25568401
4 5783 5190 -593 593 351649 0.10254193
5 6298 5783 -515 515 265225 0.08177199
6 6739 6298 -441 441 194481 0.06543998
7 7107 6739 -368 368 135424 0.05177994
8 6492 7107 615 615 378225 0.09473198
9 5693 6492 799 799 638401 0.1403478
10 5497 5693 196 196 38416 0.03565581
11 5958 5497 -461 461 212521 0.07737496
12 4309 5958 1649 1649 2719201 0.3826874
13 4323 4309 -14 14 196 0.00323849
14 4517 4323 -194 194 37636 0.04294886
15 5860 4517 -1343 1343 1803649 0.22918089
16 6552 5860 -692 692 478864 0.10561661
17 7370 6552 -818 818 669124 0.1109905
18 7888 7370 -518 518 268324 0.06566937
19 8330 7888 -442 442 195364 0.05306122
20 7401 8330 929 929 863041 0.12552358
21 6599 7401 802 802 643204 0.12153357
22 6411 6599 188 188 35344 0.0293246
23 6742 6411 -331 331 109561 0.04909522
24 4910 6742 1832 1832 3356224 0.37311609
25 4626 4910 284 284 80656 0.06139213
26 4633 4626 -7 7 49 0.0015109
27 6121 4633 -1488 1488 2214144 0.24309753
28 7060 6121 -939 939 881721 0.13300283
28 7758 7060 -698 698 487204 0.08997164
30 7992 7758 -234 234 54756 0.02927928
31 8838 7992 -846 846 715716 0.09572301
32 7770 8838 1068 1068 1140624 0.13745174
33 7011 7770 759 759 576081 0.10825845
34 6644 7011 367 367 134689 0.05523781
35 7102 6644 -458 458 209764 0.06448888
36 4952 7102 2150 2150 4622500 0.43416801
37 5008 4952 -56 56 3136 0.01118211
38 5034 5008 -26 26 676 0.00516488
39 6624 5034 -1590 1590 2528100 0.24003623
40 7697 6624 -1073 1073 1151329 0.13940496
41 8240 7697 -543 543 294849 0.06589806
42 8851 8240 -611 611 373321 0.06903175
43 9758 8851 -907 907 822649 0.09294937
44 8176 9758 1582 1582 2502724 0.19349315
45 7467 8176 709 709 502681 0.09495112
46 7231 7467 236 236 55696 0.03263726
47 7334 7231 -103 103 10609 0.01404418
48 5678 7334 1656 1656 2742336 0.29165199
49 5236 5678 442 442 195364 0.08441558
50 5299 5236 -63 63 3969 0.01188904
51 6744 5299 -1445 1445 2088025 0.21426453
52 7927 6744 -1183 1183 1399489 0.14923679
53 8561 7927 -634 634 401956 0.07405677
54 8930 8561 -369 369 136161 0.04132139
55 9960 8930 -1030 1030 1060900 0.10341365
56 8548 9960 1412 1412 1993744 0.16518484
9960
9960
9960
9960
9960
9960

t wt ht ft knt pt
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Alpha 1 no es estacionario la demanada portal razon alfa 1
ME -34
MAD 767.154337
MASE 941174.829
MAPE 12.3%
σ 958.942921

Chart Title
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55

Demanda Ft

por que la demanda no es estasiona

dt in
pton 1500
pron
pron
da portal razon alfa 1

Mes Días hábiles ft

Sep-19 23
Oct-19 19
Nov-19 22
Dec-19 20
Jan-20 23
Feb-20 20

costos de produccion

gente despedida
contratada

r que la demanda no es estasionaria por esa razon el alfa me da 1 sin embargo como es objetivo del departamento de operacio
tivo del departamento de operaciones reducir los costos relacionados a contratacion y despidos se obta por un modelo de pron
os se obta por un modelo de pronostico estacionario con el fin de mantener una fuerza laboral constante
T Wreal wt Ht Ft Knt Preal
0 10 10
1 18 18.00 8.00 0 460 8280
2 18.00 18.00 0.00 0 380 6840
3 18.00 18.00 0.00 0 440 7920
4 18.00 18.00 0.00 0 400 7200
5 18.00 18.00 0.00 0 460 8280
6 18 18.00 0.00 0 400 7200

Fo $ 285,882,000

w1 14.6021739
w2 17.4059524
w3 17.925 18
w4 17.0202381
w5 15.9172897
w6 15.5964567
Pt Pac Dreal Dt Dac It Ipropio
1500 1500
8280 8217 8217 1563 1500
6840 7904 7904 499 499
7920 8323 8323 96 96
7200 5650 5650 1646 1500
8280 5469 5469 4457 1500
7200 5552 5552 6105 1500

dias
23 CH
19 CF
22 Cwp
20 CWn
23 PH
20 Cf
Cibodega pro
Cibodega ext
Cfbodega ext
i0
CAP1 propia
CAP2 extra
Wmin
wmax
Cp
PV
Iextra faltantes Ingresos por ventas ingresos reales Ci bodega propia Ci bodega extra
0
63 0 97800000 $ 82,170,000 2700000 63000
0 0 84030000 $ 79,040,000 898200 0
0 0 84190000 $ 83,230,000 172800 0
146 0 72960000 $ 56,500,000 2700000 146000
2957 0 99260000 $ 54,690,000 2700000 2957000
4605 0 $ 116,570,000 $ 55,520,000 2700000 4605000

$ 554,810,000 $ 411,150,000 11871000 7771000

1200000
1500000
1500000
900000
0.4
6000
1800
1000
2000000
1500
1500
7000
5
25
2000
$ 10,000
costo faltante Cf bodega extra costos produccion costo de salario costos de contrata

0 2000000 16560000 22200000 9600000

0 0 13680000 27000000 0
0 0 15840000 27000000 0
0 2000000 14400000 27000000 0
0 2000000 16560000 27000000 0
0 2000000 14400000 27000000 0

0 8000000 91440000 157200000 9600000

costo de despedir utilidad

0 $ 29,047,000
0 $ 37,461,800
0 $ 40,217,200
0 $ 10,254,000
0 $ 3,473,000
0 $ 4,815,000

0 $ 125,268,000
IdEstacion Periodo Demanda Yt Dt/Yt St Gt
1 -11
2 -10
3 -9
4 -8
5 -7
6 -6
7 -5
8 -4
9 -3
10 -2
11 -1
12 0 5291.2922 47.726418
1 1 3794 5339.01862 0.71061749 5340.47118 48.4526955
2 2 3863 5386.74504 0.71713066 5389.78615 48.8838349
3 3 5190 5434.47146 0.95501468 5503.76872 81.433203
4 4 5783 5482.19787 1.05486889 5525.08064 51.3725605
5 5 6298 5529.92429 1.13889443 5527.14399 26.7179561
6 6 6739 5577.65071 1.20821478 5572.01564 35.7948046
7 7 7107 5625.37713 1.26338196 5537.52923 0.65419472
8 8 6492 5673.10355 1.14434717 5642.49922 52.8120935
9 9 5693 5720.82996 0.99513533 5646.21944 28.2661575
10 10 5497 5768.55638 0.95292472 5662.94401 22.4953633
11 11 5958 5816.2828 1.0243656 5768.20875 63.8800498
12 12 4309 5864.00922 0.73482149 5834.4619 65.0666008
1 13 4323 5911.73564 0.73125733 5992.72632 111.665509
2 14 4517 5959.46205 0.75795432 6203.58231 161.260753
3 15 5860 6007.18847 0.97549794 6307.82641 132.752424
4 16 6552 6054.91489 1.08209613 6333.05905 78.9925313
5 17 7370 6102.64131 1.2076738 6425.50282 85.7181499
6 18 7888 6150.36773 1.28252494 6521.93643 91.0758826
7 19 8330 6198.09414 1.34396152 6531.00508 50.0722677
8 20 7401 6245.82056 1.18495239 6536.27356 27.6703721
9 21 6599 6293.54698 1.04853432 6540.07105 15.7339331
10 22 6411 6341.2734 1.01099568 6576.80187 26.2323749
11 23 6742 6388.99982 1.05525124 6588.3828 18.90665
12 24 4910 6436.72623 0.76281013 6628.43385 29.4788525
1 25 4626 6484.45265 0.71339869 6560.07539 -19.4398047
2 26 4633 6532.17907 0.70925796 6476.99803 -51.2585836
3 27 6121 6579.90549 0.93025652 6492.29922 -17.978695
4 28 7060 6627.63191 1.06523719 6619.99013 54.8561072
5 28 7758 6627.63191 1.17055384 6722.84874 78.8573579
6 30 7992 6723.08474 1.18874004 6707.52773 31.7681757
7 31 8838 6770.81116 1.30530889 6812.40566 68.3230528
8 32 7770 6818.53758 1.13954054 6859.64447 57.7809301
9 33 7011 6866.264 1.0210793 6926.55622 62.3463401
10 34 6644 6913.99041 0.96095013 6907.79648 21.7932986
11 35 7102 6961.71683 1.02015066 6931.02222 22.5095232
12 36 4952 7009.44325 0.70647551 6824.65534 -41.928678
1 37 5008 7057.16967 0.70963293 6915.57781 24.4968933
2 38 5034 7104.89609 0.70852549 6971.4664 40.1927423
3 39 6624 7152.6225 0.92609389 7036.65066 52.6885006
4 40 7697 7200.34892 1.06897597 7192.58549 104.311666
5 41 8240 7248.07534 1.13685353 7231.41715 71.5716626
6 42 8851 7295.80176 1.21316345 7339.46956 89.8120386
7 43 9758 7343.52818 1.32878907 7495.48789 122.915181
8 44 8176 7391.25459 1.10617215 7412.68468 20.0559877
9 45 7467 7438.98101 1.00376651 7407.33188 7.35159135
10 46 7231 7486.70743 0.96584514 7444.19496 22.1073352
11 47 7334 7534.43385 0.97339762 7312.23938 -54.9241221
12 48 5678 7582.16027 0.74886309 7503.9631 68.3997994
1 49 5236 7629.88668 0.68624872 7435.78815 0.11242718
2 50 5299 7677.6131 0.69018846 7395.42207 -20.1268258
3 51 6744 7725.33952 0.87297134 7276.06052 -69.7441895
4 52 7927 7773.06594 1.01980352 7333.30796 -6.24837692
5 53 8561 7820.79236 1.09464612 7403.00796 31.7258146
6 54 8930 7868.51877 1.13490229 7429.03483 28.8763426
7 55 9960 7916.24519 1.25817225 7571.10136 85.4714363
8 56 8548 7963.97161 1.07333381 7648.73749 81.5537797
9 58 8059.42445
10 59 8107.15086
11 60 8154.87728
12 61 8202.6037
1 62 8250.33012
2 63 8298.05654
 Ct Ft et IetI (et)^2 %
0.71023103
0.71661138
0.93196687
1.05819634
1.14972434
1.2055091
1.29992274
1.12966921
1.01712886
0.97267892
1.01829128
0.73824256
0.71032762 3792 -2 2 4 0.00052715
0.7166687 3862 -1 1 1 0.00025887
0.93747854 5069 -121 121 14641 0.02331407
1.05243895 5910 127 127 16129 0.02196092
1.14459584 6411 113 113 12769 0.0179422
12000
1.20747288 6695 -44 44 1936 0.00652916
1.29167356 7290 183 183 33489 0.02574926
1.1401116 6256 -236 236 55696 0.03635243
1.01270708 5793 100 100 10000 0.01756543
0.97168772 5519 22 22 484 0.00400218 10000
1.02559713 5789 -169 169 28561 0.02836522
0.73839269 4305 -4 4 16 0.00092829
0.71585106 4191 -132 132 17424 0.03053435
0.72239819 4375 -142 142 20164 0.03143679
0.93324159 5967 107 107 11449 0.01825939 8000

1.04350504 6778 226 226 51076 0.03449328

1.14579389 7339 -31 31 961 0.00420624
1.20846481 7862 -26 26 676 0.00329615
1.28356404 8542 212 212 44944 0.02545018
6000
1.13620408 7503 102 102 10404 0.01378192
1.01085876 6647 48 48 2304 0.00727383
0.9732388 6370 -41 41 1681 0.00639526
1.02445675 6772 30 30 900 0.00444972
0.73957041 4879 -31 31 961 0.00631365 4000
0.71051294 4766 140 140 19600 0.03026373
0.71884935 4725 92 92 8464 0.01985754
0.93802544 5997 -124 124 15376 0.02025813
1.05498594 6756 -304 304 92416 0.04305949
2000
1.14988449 7648 -110 110 12100 0.01417891
1.19998097 8220 228 228 51984 0.02852853

0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
1
 2000

1.29045155 8650 -188 188 35344 0.02127178

1.13445792 7818 48 48 2304 0.00617761
1.01152503 6993 -18 18 324 0.00256739 0
0.96752529 6802 158 158 24964 0.02378085

1
3
5
7
9
11
13
1
1.02456262 7099 -3 3 9 0.00042242
0.73258741 5143 191 191 36481 0.03857027
0.71733757 4819 -189 189 35721 0.03773962
0.7204678 4989 -45 45 2025 0.00893921
0.93969119 6577 -47 47 2209 0.00709541
1.06255787 7479 -218 218 47524 0.02832272
1.14467843 8391 151 151 22801 0.01832524
1.20296321 8763 -88 88 7744 0.00994238
1.29615072 9587 -171 171 29241 0.01752408
1.11871606 8643 467 467 218089 0.0571184
1.00979016 7518 51 51 2601 0.00683005
0.9694431 7174 -57 57 3249 0.00788273
1.01376927 7650 316 316 99856 0.04308699
0.74462712 5317 -361 361 130321 0.06357872
0.71074982 5432 196 196 38416 0.03743316
0.71849607 5357 58 58 3364 0.01094546
0.93328319 6930 186 186 34596 0.02758007
1.07175808 7657 -270 270 72900 0.0340608
1.15055013 8387 -174 174 30276 0.02032473
1.20250181 8944 14 14 196 0.00156775
1.30583963 9667 -293 293 85849 0.02941767
1.11814306 8566 18 18 324 0.00210576
8465
8206
8663
6424
5494
5613
 ME -1
MAD 129
MASE 26845.3214
MAPE 1.9%
σ 161.25

Alpha 0.5
Beta 0.5
Gamma 0.5

Chart Title
12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
61
 0
2000

1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
Demanda

31
33
35
Ft

37
39
41
43
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
61
55
57
59
61
55
57
59
61
T Wreal wt CONDICION DDELTA Ht Ft
0 10 10
1 23 23 0 12.85 13 0
2 21 21 1 -1.48 0 2
3 20 20 1 -0.86 0 1
4 16 16 1 -3.79 0 4
5 12 12 1 -3.87 0 4
6 18 18 0 5.46 6 0

FO min $ 2,647,200
dias
23
k 20 19
22
20
23
20

CH 1200000
CF 1500000
Cwp 1500000
CWn 900000
PH 0.4
Cf 6000
Cibodega prop 1800
Cibodega extr 1000
Cfbodega extr 2000000
i0 1500
CAP1 propia 1500
CAP2 extra 7000
Wmin 5
wmax 25
Cp 2000
PV 1000
Knt Preal Pt Pac Dreal Dt Dac

460 6992 6992 8465 8465

380 7980 7980 8206 8206
440 8800 8800 8663 8663
400 6400 6400 6424 6424
460 5520 5520 5494 5494
400 5760 5760 5613 5613

w0 10
It Ipropio Iextra faltantes Ci bodega propia Ci bodega extra
1500 1500 0 0
27 27 0 0 48600 0
-199 0 0 199 0 0
-62 0 0 62 0 0
-86 0 0 86 0 0
-60 0 0 60 0 0
87 87 0 0 156600 0

$ 205,200 0
costo faltante Cf bodega extra
0
0 0
1194000 0
372000 0
516000 0
360000 0
0 0

$ 2,442,000 0