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Bangladesh Pharmaceutical Industry Market The worldwide pandemic of coronavirus has emerged as
Size Projection USD bn a new opportunity for pharma industry. The escalated
trade war between US and China is making the US to
reconsider its overdependence on China that made a
5.92
new opportunity for developing countries including
5.29
4.72
Bangladesh. Bangladesh pharma industry has the
4.21
3.76
15 0
drugs.
136
10 0
50
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 total size of $3.4 billion as of 2017. (LIGHTCASTLE ,
Source: Export Promotion Bureau website 2020)
Bangladesh’s consumer class is projected to double by
Bangladesh usually produces branded-generic drugs the end of this decade: In 2020, the size of the
(75% manufacturers produce generic drugs. (Cision PR consumer class was 35 million. By 2030, the size will be
Newswire, 2020). This trend is helping established 85 million. (Brookings Institution, 2021) This growth
brands in the market to charge premium for their potential of the consumer class will make Bangladesh
products. Market is concentrated among few companies an attractive place for the FMCG industry.
(Only five companies hold 46.66 per cent of the market However, global pandemic of COVID-19 and any future
share) and entry barrier is higher due to large capital variant spread will impact the FMCG industry the most.
investment and legislative bindings. (The Financial In the short run, the industry need to meet the
Express, 2019) increasing demand for personal hygiene products such
as sanitizers and soaps and grapple supply chain issues
The domestic pharmaceuticals market is dominated by if lockdowns are imposed. In the long run, the economic
six major players. Top 6 companies hold approximately downturn and the persisting inflation will reduce
53% of the total market share. Square Pharmaceutical consumers’ purchasing power while increasing raw
is the market leader having 18.8% market share material prices for manufacturers.
followed by Incepta, Beximco, Opsonin, Renata and Autos Sector overview: The Bangladesh automobiles
Eskayef. Below pie chart shows the current market market is worth USD 1 billion (LightCastle Partners,
share held by leading pharmaceutical companies (The 2020). Prior to the pandemic, the automobile market
Daily Star, 2020). has been growing at a rate of 15-20% every year while
the auto parts market grew at 12%. Of the more than
Domestic Pharmaceutical Market Share in 46 lakh registered motor vehicles in the country, 80%
percentage of them are two-wheelers. (The Business Standard,
2021)
Fueled by the economic development of the country
18.8 Square
Incepta
that leads to improved lifestyle and higher purchasing
Beximco power among middle income class people, Bangladesh
38.81 two wheelers market has experienced a faster growth.
Opsonin
10.2 Reneta Since 2016-17, market began to expand fast mainly
Eskayef due to Govt. favorable policy i.e. reduction in
ACI supplementary duty on motorcycle parts import to 20%
8.5 Aristopharma from 25% for local manufacturers, reduction of two-
Acme wheels registrations cost by 75%.
3.52 5.6 Others
4.11 While 70% of the parts have to be imported, this policy
4.38 4.5 5.1
represented a huge financial blessing for the local
producers. Before, local manufacturers produced less
Source: The Daily Star than 250,000 units every year. After the policies were
implemented, volume doubled to 487,000 units in 2018 profit-before-tax of BDT 58.09 million- a 113%
and over 549,000 units in 2019. At present, around 80 growth from negative BDT 460.37 million in FY
percent of motorcycles running in the country have 2020-21.
either been locally manufactured or assembled. ACI Food division has been able to generate a
However, the long run of the motorcycles industry had profit-before-tax growth of 166% from BDT 16.88
been braked by the first wave of COVID-19 back in million in Q1 FY 2020-21 to BDT 44.95 million in Q1
2020. That year, the market declined, for the first time, FY 2021-22. Revenue grew 23% from 1.51 million
by 9.3% (MotorCycles Data, 2021). However, the to 1.86 million during the same time period.
industry rebounded and by 2021, average sales of ACI Salt’s revenue grew 89% and PBT grew 166%
motorcycles stood at 33,329 units per month compared in Q1 of FY 2021-22 on a Y-o-Y basis.
to 25,918 units per month in 2020. (The Daily Star, Investment Concern
2021) As mentioned before, out of 11 business segments
under different subsidiaries of the conglomerate,
Investment Insight only 6 has reported sound growth in net profit
(before tax) during the 1st quarter of 2020-21.
Company Positive
Compared to the 1st quarter of the previous fiscal
After two consecutive years of losses, ACI Limited year, the number of subsidiaries reporting loss has
has finally returned to profitability. In FY 2020-21, increased from 4 in Q1 FY 2020-21 to 5 in Q1 FY
net profit amounted to BDT 347 million against a 2021-22.
loss of BDT 1,322 million in FY 2019-20. It can be Although the Premiaflex Plastics has shown 10%
expected that the conglomerate will maintain its growth in revenue, it has again faced a reversal in
profitability in the coming days. It already recorded its profit before tax figures. In Q1 of FY 2020-21,
a net profit of BDT 301.29 million in Q1 of FY 2021- its PBT was BDT 25,627 million that turned to
22: that is covering 86 percent of the profit it made negative BDT 47,666 million in Q1 of FY 2021-22.
overall in the last fiscal year. The consumer brand division has been recording
The conglomerate is reducing its levered position. loss since 2019 and during the 1st quarter of
Interest expense has been reduced by 22 percent FY2020-21, profit before tax and revenue de-
from BDT 4.57 million in FY 2019-20 to BDT 3.55 growth stood at 1629% and 19.9% respectively.
million in FY 2020-21. Debt-to-equity ratio reduced This degrowth is despite the sudden surge in
from 666.1% to 336.4% while debt-to-asset ratio demand of the health and hygiene products such as
reduced from 78.9% to 51.8% during the same Antibacterial Soap, Sanitizer, disinfectant etc.
time interval. Operating expenses, as a percentage during the lockdown where ACI has several
of revenue, has declined from 23.3% to 21.6%. established brands in this category.
These reductions in financial and operating ACI Healthcare has been showing revenue de-
expenses, along with a sales growth of 15% has growth of 6.8% in the 1st quarter of FY2020-21.
helped improve profit margins for the Though the concern has shown a slight
conglomerate. Margin ratios from annualized Q1 FY improvement in its profit-before-tax figures
2021-22 figures show the numbers further compared to the first quarter of last fiscal year, the
improved. balance is still in the negative. The subsidiary is still
At the onset of COVID-19, Shwapno introduced waiting for approval of its US factory from the FDA
telesales service that has brought in 11,000 that has been halted due to the pandemic. The rise
monthly customers. Its presence in e-commerce of the new Omicron variant can further hamper the
platforms has brought in 30,000 monthly orders approval.
while physical stores bring in 14,000 visitors daily. Continued loss in ACI Logistics Ltd. (Shwapno) is
In FY 2020-21, Shwapno added 52 outlets. The eating up a significant portion of the
increase in visitors, both online and retail have conglomerate’s net profit after tax over the year.
helped revenue to increase by 18.7% in Q1 FY During FY 2020-21, accumulated loss recorded as
2021-22 on a year-on-year basis. The retail chain BDT 13,743.88 million. However, profit after tax,
reported operating profit in the months of May and though still negative, and have improved from
June 2021. Profit-before-tax (PBT), though, still negative BDT 1,569.39 million in FY 2019-20 to
negative, has improved: PBT in Q1 FY 2021-22 was negative BDT 1,420.15 million in FY 2020-21.
negative BDT 1,318 million compared to BDT 1,482 Despite improvements, the conglomerate is
million in FY 2020-21. still a highly levered company. As on
In FY 20-21, ACI Motors Farm mechanization unit September 2021, debt-equity ratio of the
ensured 27% growth over last year. ACI Motors’ company stood at 115.59% which made the
Tractor brand Sonalika has continued market company exposed to high financial and
leadership with 36% market share. The subsidiary’s business risk. The conglomerate has increased its
power tiller also maintained leading position in its short term borrowing in FY 2020-21: Short term
category. bank loans increased by 45% from the last fiscal
ACI Motors has started manufacturing of 150 CC year. The increase in short term borrowing has led
Yamaha motorcycle (FZS V3) from May 2021. to an increase in current liabilities that has reduced
Yamaha motorcycle had experienced growth of the quick and cash ratios of the company. This
15% and maintained 6% market share. significant finance cost has been consistently acting
Premiaflex Plastics Limited has been able to as one of the major causes of lower performance.
generate a positive profit-before-tax in FY 2021-22. As the company imports most of its raw materials
In the reported period, the producer of premium for production, it is exposed to exchange rate risk
plastic and flexible packaging products posted and according annual report 2018-19, continued
30.61%
30.38%
29.46%
repercussion of global pandemic, raw materials
28.46%
sourcing and hence, timely production has become
6.88%
6.15%
5.90%
5.81%
2.72%
2.87%
difficult for the company. ACI Motor’s Yamaha
-0.15%
0.99%
-1.60%
0.45%
-1.29%
0.28%
inventory, for example, was unavailable from
August 2020 to January 2021 as a result of the
disruption. The subsidiary estimated it would have 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
gained an additional 2% market share if the
disruptions did not take place.
Dividend per share (DPS) has been consistently Gross Profit Operating Profit Pre Tax Profit Net Profit
decreasing over the years as earnings took a dip.
DPS was BDT 11.5 per share in FY 2018-19, which Source: Annual reports
declined to BDT 9.00 and BDT 8.00 per share in FY
2019-20 and FY 2020-21 respectively. However,
Pricing Based on Relative Valuation:
with the increase in the company’s potential
earnings, it can be expected that DPS will also EPS* Multip Value
increase. Sector P/E* 6.90 112.6 le (BDT)
778
The earnings growth of the company is highly 12-m trailing ACI P/E 5.50 48.22 0 265.20
volatile. But EPS growth has been positive since Q4 Sensitivity Analysis
of FY 2019-20. Yearly EPS has also been in a Price @46x PE 6.90 46x 317.4
positive trend. Price @48x PE 6.90 48x 331.2
Price @50x PE 6.90 50x 345.0
Yearly EPS and EPS Growth *Sector P/E calculated as an average of the P/Es (based
EPS Growth on last audited statements) of selected 12 listed
20.00 300%
15.72 companies in DSE
15.00
10.36 200%
Concluding Remarks:
GROWTH RATE (%)
10.00
5.50 100%
5.00 Despite the increase in number of subsidiaries reporting
negative profit before tax numbers in Q1 FY 2021-22,
EPS
0.00 0%
-5.00
ACI Limited has a better consolidated profit before tax
-100% figure than the same quarter of the previous fiscal year.
-10.00
The conglomerate has been able to return back to
-200%
-15.00
(13.51) profitability as well as reduce its highly leveraged
-20.00 (16.78) -300% position.
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Future concerns remain about the possibility of future
*Financial data of 2021-22 has been annualized COVID variant outbreaks that will impact production,
based on Q1 data. inflation that will impact sales, and currency
depreciation that will impact raw material prices.
Quarterly EPS (BDT) However, ACI Limited and its subsidiaries have been
able to adapt to the changing situation quickly. For
3.93 example: ACI Healthcare, while waiting for approval
1.54 1.65 1.96 from the US FDA, switched to manufacture products for
0.41 0.35 the local market last year. Premiaflex, on the other
hand, switched to toy category products to subsidize
the loss of revenue from non-necessary goods.
As long as the conglomerate maneuvers its subsidiaries
-5.21 -4.81 to the current changing conditions, it can increase
-6.35 performance and improve results.
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Sources: Annual Reports, DSE Website, Company
2019-20 2020-21 2021- website, the Financial Express, the Daily Star and EBLSL
22 Research
Source: Annual and quarterly reports
RATIO ANALYSIS
Year 2016-17 Year 2017-18 Year 2018-19 Year 2019-20 Year 2020-21 Year 2021-22
An*
Liquidity Ratios:
Current Ratio 0.87 0.84 0.77 0.70 0.74 0.74
Quick Ratio 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.41 0.40 0.38
Cash Ratio 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.11 0.06 0.10
Operating Efficiency Ratios
Inventory Turnover Ratio 3.54 3.60 3.54 3.83 3.95 0.85
Receivable Turnover Ratio 6.24 5.36 4.83 5.08 6.30 1.79
Average Collection Period (Days) 57.73 67.20 74.56 70.88 57.15 201.07
Inventory Conversion 101.64 99.90 101.80 94.00 91.16 422.29
Period(Days)
Operating Cycle (Days) 159.37 167.10 176.37 164.88 148.31 623.35
A/C Payable Turnover Ratio 16.54 12.84 12.90 9.75 12.51 3.39
Payables Payment Period (Days) 21.76 28.04 27.92 36.92 28.78 106.27
Cash Conversion Cycle (Days) 137.61 139.06 148.45 127.96 119.53 517.08
Total Asset Turnover 1.08 1.03 1.03 1.08 1.14 0.30
Fixed Asset Turnover 2.65 2.46 2.46 2.53 2.70 0.72
Operating Profitability Ratios
Gross Profit Margin (GPM) 31.35% 30.38% 30.61% 29.46% 28.46% 0.29
Operating Profit Margin (OPM) 7.12% 5.90% 5.81% 6.15% 6.88% 0.08
EBITDA 9.03% 7.91% 7.83% 8.50% 8.94% 0.14
Pre Tax Profit Margin 4.87% 2.72% 0.28% -0.15% 2.87% 0.04
Net Profit Margin (NPM) 2.37% 0.99% -1.29% -1.60% 0.45% 0.01
Return on Total Assets (ROA) 2.57% 1.02% -1.34% -1.72% 0.52% 0.00
Return on Equity (ROE) 10.40% 4.83% -7.75% -12.82% 3.78% 0.02
Leverage Ratios
Total Debt to Equity 2.49 3.37 4.80 6.66 3.36 4.21
Debt to Total Assets 0.56 0.67 0.65 0.79 0.52 0.65
Coverage Ratios
Times Interest Earned (TIE) 2.20 1.38 1.04 0.89 1.48 1.93
Cash Coverage Ratio 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.08
Valuation Ratios
Book Value Per Share 220.72 215.99 160.82 115.51 175.93 180.29
EPS 22.10 10.36 -13.51 -16.78 5.50 3.93
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 29% 16% 15% 10% 15% -0.72
Gross Profit Growth Rate 4% 5% 26% 7% 7% -0.64
Net Income Growth Rate 24% -51% -250% 37% -133% -0.29
Net Profit AT/Sales 2.37% 0.99% -1.29% -1.60% 0.45% 0.01
Sales/Total Assets 108.37% 103.05% 103.43% 107.60% 114.18% 0.30
ROA 2.57% 1.02% -1.34% -1.72% 0.52% 0.00
Net Profit AT/Total Assets 2.57% 1.02% -1.34% -1.72% 0.52% 0.00
Total Assets/Stockholders Equity 405.37% 473.24% 578.52% 744.15% 726.70% 6.48
ROE 10.40% 4.83% -7.75% -12.82% 3.78% 0.02
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