7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

7
ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT
ANALYSIS

7.1 INTRODUCTION

One undesirable reality that comes with development is the increase in traffic accidents
concomitant with increased motorization and infrastructure. Every year, worldwide, at least one
million people are killed on the road, 70 percent of whom are from countries classified by the
World Bank as low- or middle-income. This apparently worse scenario among developing
countries, like the Philippines, may be explained in that priorities are geared toward infrastructure
development, improving mobility, and addressing the need for a better public transportation
system. Conscious efforts to ensure road safety then take a back seat.

7.2 ASSESSMENT OF ROAD SAFETY

The state of road safety of a country or a region is normally gauged by the frequency of
accident occurrence. Key indicators are the number of accidents (fatal, injured, or property
damage) and the rates of accidents. For comparison studies, the rates are normally used instead of
the actual numbers.

7.2.1 Accident per Population

One measure of accident rate is per 100,000 population. For instance, if a town, city, or
region has N accident occurrences in one year and has a population P, then
𝑵𝑵
𝑨𝑨𝒑𝒑 = 𝑷𝑷 𝒙𝒙 𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏, 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎 (7.1)

Example 7.1
A town has a population of 350,000 in 2005. In the same year, the number of accidents was
620. Determine the accident rate.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

Solution:
Using equation 7.1,
620
𝐴𝐴𝑝𝑝 = 𝑥𝑥 100,000 = 177 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 100,000 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝
350,000

7.2.2 Accident per Registered Vehicles

Another measure of accident rate is per 10,000 registered vehicles. Again, if there are N
accidents in one year and the number of registered vehicles for the same year is V, then
𝑵𝑵
𝑨𝑨𝑽𝑽 = 𝑽𝑽 𝒙𝒙 𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏, 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎 (7.2)

Example 7.2
The town in example 7.1 has 122,400 registered vehicles in 2005. Determine the accident
rate per registered vehicles.

Solution:
From equation 7.2,
𝑁𝑁 620
𝐴𝐴𝑉𝑉 = 𝑥𝑥 10,000 = 𝑥𝑥10,000 = 51 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 10,000 𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣ℎ𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖
𝑉𝑉 122,400

Example 7.3
Given the number of accidents, population, and number of registered number of vehicles
for each region in the Philippines, the accident rates are computed and shown in table 7.1. Most
number accidents (72.44 percent) occurred in the National Capital Region (NCR) or Metro Manila.
In terms of rate per population, Metro Manila still has the highest rate, followed on distant second
by Region 10 (Northern Mindanao). However, in terms of rate per registered vehicle, Region 10
has the highest, followed by Metro Manila. It is recognized that the level or accuracy of reporting
traffic accident varies from region to region.
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Table 7.1
Distribution of accidents by region

7.2.3 Accident Definition

The UN Organization (Geneva) defines traffic death as that which occurs within thirty days
of the event, i.e., a road accident victim who died within thirty days of the incident is still
considered a casually of the accident. The Philippines defines fatality as “death at the scene”.
Serious injury and slight injury are defined based on the extent of injury sustained and the length
of time required by the injured to recover. However, there is no exact definition of the seriousness
of the injury. Property damage-only accidents involve vehicles colliding with publicity or privately
owned structures, equipment, and facilities located by the road. It also includes collision of
vehicles with other vehicles without causing physical injury to the driver, passenger, or any
pedestrian.

7.2.4 Road Accident Reporting

There are no specific steps in accident reporting in the country. In many cases, the accidents
reported to hospitals are referred to medico-legal department of the hospital, with the local
policeman from the accident site in attendance. In the absence of local police, the reporting of an
accident from the hospital to the police headquarters and to the PNP is seldom done.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

In Metro Manila, the Traffic Enforcement Unit is composed of three to five investigators
working round the clock by shifts. Each accident case has a corresponding investigator from each
reporting police station. It is a common practice for each investigator to be responsible for keeping
the records of cases he or she has investigated, regardless of the type of accident.
The TMG used to handle all cases of traffic accidents within Metro Manila, but when the
Traffic Enforcement Group (TEG) was formed, both groups became involved in reporting and
record keeping of traffic accidents. Although the TEG is supposed to be responsible for reporting
traffic accidents while TMG takes care of anticarnapping and antihijacking campaigns, the
functions of the two are still unclear as far as traffic accident reporting is concerned.
The hospitals are usually the first ones to get involved within traffic accident victims. The
police are then informed by a call from the hospital. At present, the practice of record keeping in
hospitals varies considerably. Most of the hospitals do this manually. The Department of Health
intends to promote an integrated hospital information system designed to computerized medical
records.
Several government projects on road safety are funded by international organizations. One
relevant project is the DPWH Sixth Road Project (CO8 Road Infrastructure Safety Project). One
of the outputs of this Asian Development Bank (ADB) funded project is the development of a
handbook on accident cost estimation and updating. Another ADV-funded project implemented
through the Metro Manila Development Authority and the Department of Environment and
Natural Resources (DENR), the “Metro Manila Air Quality Improvement Project”, has a major
component on road safety. It is interesting to note that both projects have developed traffic accident
database and analysis system. The Traffic Accident Reporting and Analysis System or TARAS is
housed at the DPWH. The TARAS is composed of computer software and associated procedures
for recording and analyzing road accidents in the Philippines. On the other hand, the Metro Manila
Accident Reporting and Analysis System or MMARAS is the computer software being used by
the MMDA. The MMARAS is used for recording and analyzing road accidents in Metro Manila.
Although the proponents of the two projects may assert that is is best to have two separate systems
as they have different objectives to meet, in the end, what matters most is whether the two systems
can give the overall picture of traffic safety in the Philippines. In the case of the MMARAS, only
fatal and serious injury accidents are considered for reporting and analysis. This leaves the traffic
investigation reports on minor injury accidents and property-damage-only accidents on the shelves
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

of the different police districts in Metro Manila. If integration of the two systems is not possible,
at the very least coordination of tasks between the two agencies concerned is absolutely necessary.

7.2.5 Present Situation

Most developed countries have been successful in reducing accident rates, but the rates
remain unchecked in many developing countries. Relative to other countries, the Philippine
accident rate of about 6.0 fatalities per 10,000 vehicles appears to show a better image of road
safety condition. However, this figure may be misleading, considering the high incidence of severe
accidents that have been reported in the newspapers. Are all these accidents accounted for? Do we
have a good system of recording accidents? For what purposes are we compiling accident records?
How are data kept? Are these data readily available to traffic engineers and planners responsible
for analysis and for improving our transportation infrastructure? The lack of definite answers to
these questions reflects how little priority is given to road safety.
When the Philippine situation is compared with that of other ASEAN countries, again
statistics may be deceiving and tend to make us complacent about our situation. In reality, there is
much discrepancy between statistics and the actual situation.

7.2.6 Key Socioeconomic Indicators

Three key socioeconomic indicators are used to assess a country’s road safety condition:
A. Population
B. Gross domestic product (GDP)
C. Vehicle registration
Population and number of registered vehicles have been discussed in section 7.2.1 and
7.2.2. Figure 7.1 shows the trends of these socioeconomic indicators of the country. As of 2003,
Philippine population stood at about 80 million with a 2.2 percent annual growth rate. The GDP
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

Figure 7.1
Growth of population, GDP, and vehicle registration

was also increasing at about 5.5 percent annually while the total number of vehicles was fast
increasing at the rate of 4.4 percent.
Given the growth rates in all the factors, which increase the potential for road accidents,
and based on the experience of most developing countries with similar trends, it is highly likely
that casualties on the road should also increase over the years. However, this increase is not
reflected in the reported road traffic accident statistics as collected and collated by the PNP. On
the country, the trend in road accident deaths appears to be decreasing as shown in figure 7.2.

Figure 7.2
Number of fatalities on the road as reported by the PNP and the health sector
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

Everyone (including the PNP) recognizes the fact that because of the different agencies
involved and the different jurisdictions, there is a serious problem in underreporting of traffic
accidents by the police. An efficient road accident data system is simply not yet available in the
Philippines. Moreover, hospital records are not reconciled with those of the police. Figure 7.2
shows that within the same period, the estimates of deaths due to vehicular accidents based on
health statistics increased while police data indicated a decreasing trend. Up to 1998, the health
sector used to compile statistics on deaths attributed to road traffic accidents (data are available
for 1970, 1980, 1990, and 1998). In 2003, a UNICEF-funded study, entitled Philippine National
Injury Survey, was conducted. This study revealed the seriousness of underreporting of traffic
accidents in the country. Based on the study, about 9,000 fatalities could be attributed to road
traffic accidents in 2003. As a cause of injury morbidity, road traffic accidents ranked first among
other causes (fall, injured, struck by objects, burn, animal bites, etc.). In terms of mortality, the
leading cause was infectious diseases (49 percent), followed by noncommunicable diseases (17
percent) and injuries (11 percent). However, as far as mortalities due to injuries are concerned,
road traffic accident was the leading cause (20 percent), followed by gunshot (17 percent), stabbing
(14 percent), etc.
For the same year (2003), the police only reported about 900 fatalities. This problem of
underreporting is expected to be more serious for the other types of accidents, namely, injuries and
property-damage-only accidents.
Based on the study of traffic accident victims using 2001 hospital data for very young
people (below fifteen years old) were the most vulnerable age group (figure 7.3), representing 36
percent of the country’s total population. The number of fatalities for young people (fifteen to
thirty-nine years old) was also high, with more than 70 percent of them being male.
Figure 7.4 clearly shows that the most vulnerable road user group is the pedestrians. About
25 percent of the fatalities and 40 percent of the seriously injured pedestrians are less than fifteen
years old.
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Figure 7.3
Casualties by age group

Figure 7.4
Vulnerable user groups

Next to the pedestrian group, a growing concern is the motorcyclists. Over the last three
years, the number of motorcycles grew by 40 percent per annum.
Among the causes of traffic accidents, the police cited driver’s error, overspeeding, and
overtaking as the major causes (table 7.2).
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Table 7.2
Causes/nature of traffic accident (2003)

7.2.7 Accidents at Intersection

As observed in other countries, intersections or junctions are also normally the points of
conflict in the Philippine transportation system. Available data show that about one-third of
accidents occurred at intersection (figure 7.5). However, local studies on the occurrence of
accidents at intersections are very scarce, with hardly any reference on the subject.

Figure 7.5
Distribution of accidents by location (2000)
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

Table 7.3 shows the number of accidents involving fatalities in year 2000. Again the
intersections accounted for the biggest share at 36 percent.

Table 7.3
Fatal accidents by location (2000)

7.2.8 Accident Rate for Intersections

When analyzing traffic accidents at intersections, the total entering traffic volume usually
in AADT is considered. Equation 7.3 is used to compute the accident rate per million entering
vehicles (mev). The factor of 1,000,000 is applied for convenience to obtain values of Ai within
two to three digits.

(7.3)
where N – total number of accidents in time T
T – time frame of analysis, year
V – AADT or annual average daily traffic

Example 7.4
The T-intersection has 1,746 collision incidents over the last three years. The annual daily
traffic is shown in the figure below.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

Determine the accident rate of the intersection.

Solution:

7.2.9 Accidents Rates for Road Sections

For segments oh highways 1-2 km in length, accident rates are computed based on total
vehicle-kilometers of travel. Equation 7.4 is used to compute the accident rate per 100 million
vehicle-kilometers (mvk). Again the factor of 100 million is applied for convenience.

100,000,000𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥
𝐴𝐴𝑠𝑠 = (7.4)
365𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥
where N – total number of accidents in time T
T – time frame of analysis, year
V – AADT or annual average daily traffic
L – length of section in km
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

Example 7.5
A stretch of four-lane, two-way highway 5.0 km long has a traffic volume of 35,000
vehicles per day. If for the last three years, the total number of accidents recorded was 1,900,
determine the accident rate per 100 mvk.

Solution:
From equation 7.4
100,000,000𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥 100,000,000𝑥𝑥1,900
𝐴𝐴𝑠𝑠 = =
365𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥𝑥 365𝑥𝑥3𝑥𝑥35,000𝑥𝑥5
= 991.5 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝 100 𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚𝑚

7.2.10 Accidents by Time of Day

It is very alarming that most traffic accidents occurred during night time (see figure 7.6).
There may be other contributing factors, but the major ones could be (a) inadequacy of street
lightning, (b) lack of warning devices, and (c)0 complete disregard of traffic signals during late
night or early morning. Driver factor again plays a big part, e.g., falling asleep, practice of using
blinding head lights, drunkenness occurring more at night due to parties, reduced visibility due to
smoke-belchers, and even occurrence of night blindness among malnourished drivers.

Figure 7.6
Distribution of accidents by time of day (year 2000)
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

7.3 IDENTIFYING HAZARDOUS LOCATIONS OR BLACKSPOTS

There are a number of methods in identifying blackspots or hazardous locations. Three

methods will be discussed, two of which are based on statistics and the other based on a certain
benchmark which is set considering budgetary constraints.

7.3.1 Classic Statistical Method

The method assumes that the number of accidents at locations of interest follows a standard
normal probability distribution. The method flags a location as hazardous if it satisfies the
following inequality:

Table 7.4 provides a guide on the appropriate values of K for a given level of confidence.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

Example 7.6
A highway section has an accident rate of 150 accidents per 100 mvk. If the mean accident
rate for all sections is 55 per 100 mvk, and the standard deviation is 26 per 100 mvk, should the
section under study be flagged as hazardous with 95 percent confidence?

Solution:

Applying equation 7.5,

The section under study has to be flagged as hazardous at 95 percent level of confidence.

7.3.2 Rate Quality Control Method

This is a variation of the classic statistical method. Instead of a normal distribution, the
method assumes that the number of accidents at a set of locations follows a Poisson distribution.
Also, the method applies only to rates and not to frequencies. It compares the rate of a particular
location to the mean rate at similar locations rather than at all locations.
The method flags a location as hazardous if it satisfies the following inequality:
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

Example 7.7
A section of road has 55 accidents recorded in three years. For the same period, the
estimated vehicle travel on the section was 23 mvk. Considering only those sections having the
same characteristics as the section under study, the mean rate is 80 accidents per 100 mvk. Is the
section hazardous with 95 percent level of confidence?

Solution:
80
The mean accident rate 𝑌𝑌� is 100 = .80 accidents per mvk.

For the road section under study,

55
𝑌𝑌𝑖𝑖 = 23 = 2.39 accidents per mvk

Using equation 7.6:

0.80 0.5 1
2.39 ? 0.80 + 1.645 𝑥𝑥 � 23 � + 2(23)

2.39 > 1.13

Therefore, with 95 percent level of confidence, the section is flagged as hazardous.

7.3.3 Setting Benchmark Method

The third method requires arranging all accidents involving casualties from highest to
lowest as shown in figure 7.7. When a certain benchmark is set, say five times of the average
number of accidents, then the places of locations with more accidents than this benchmark will be
considered as blackspots. Perhaps using this method is more suitable for the country, especially
when budget allocation for improving hazardous locations is very limited.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

7.4 RESPONDES TO SAFETY

7.4.1 The Inter-agency Road Safety Committee and the National road Safety Committee
In response to the increasing concerns regarding road accidents nationwide and cognizant
of the need to coordinate efforts of concerned government agencies and the private sector, the
president of the Philippines issued Administrative Order 222 in May 1992, creating the Inter-
agency Road Safety Committee (IRSC). The committee was chaired by the secretary of Public
Works and Highways and composed of top officials of the Department of Transportation and
Communication (DOTC), Department of Education, Culture and Sports (DECS), Department of
National Defense (DND), Department of Health (DOH), Department of the Interior and Local
Government (DILG), and the Safety Organization of the Philippines Inc. (SOPI) as members.
Technical support and advice were provided to the IRSC by a technical working group (TWG),
composed of representatives of key planning and operation units of members’ agencies. Since
1996, the DOTC has been given the responsibility to coordinate all road safety activities in the
country and was assigned the chairmanship of the National Road Safety Committee (NRSC),
which in effect replaced the IRSC.

7.4.2 Agencies and Institutions Involved in Road Safety

The Department of Public Works and Highways is primarily concerned with the planning,
design, and operation of roads and roadside facilities. In pursuing those functions, the DPWH
requires data on road-related factors of an accident like location of occurrences, road condition of
locations, and presence of road safety facilities. The on-going 6th ADB Road Project (Road Safety
Component) being carried out by the DPWH covers major activities that are expected to boost
road safety programs in the country. These are:
• interagency institutional arrangements including all aspects of the current IRSC to ensure
improved interagency cooperation, taking into account the road safety provision of RA
8794.
• organizational review, including the identification of deficiencies, existing legislations, and
DPWH limitations;
• road safety promotion in the overall planning process;
• publication of road safety manual;
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

• development of a traffic accident recording and analysis system;

• adoption of safety audits;
• improvement of hazardous locations; and
• development of key performance indicators and monitoring systems.

The Department of Transportation and Communications is the primary government agency

dealing with road transport industry, particularly the planning and policy aspects. The DOTC heads
the National Road Safety Committee. NRSC is supposed to ensure the timely and responsive
implementation of policies and programs on transportation safety. As far as road safety is
concerned, a plan covering six aspects (6Es) has been developed; education, engineering,
enforcement, enactment of laws, economics, and emergency services.
The Philippine National Police-Traffic Management Group and the local police force have
emerged as the main traffic law enforcement units of the government. The TMG, besides being
involved in safety education programs, is responsible for the safekeeping of accident data.
The Land Transportation Office is in charge of driver licensing, registration of motor
vehicles, and the enforcement of transportation and traffic laws. Recently, when the drug test for
drivers became mandatory, the LTO was tasked to accredit drug testing laboratories all over the
country, in line with the agency’s target that no driver’s license shall be issued to drug addicts or
drug dependents. The LTO carries out a driver education program with the assistance of Technical
Skills Development Authority (TESDA) and in coordination with the Civil Service Commission
to educate drivers on traffic rules and regulations, as well as to develop proper skills and behavior
while driving. In the form of an outreach program, the LTO visits schools, bus companies, private
and public organizations to conduct lectures to enhance road safety awareness. The on-going
countrywide Motor Vehicle Inspection System/Smoke Emission Testing Project tests motor
vehicles for emission and safety standards. Target results of the program are improved air quality,
reduced accidents, reduced fuel consumption, and reduced air-quality-related health problems.
The Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board is a quasijudicial agency
mandated to rationalize, regulate and supervise motorized land-based public transport service.
The Metro Manila Development Authority has jurisdiction over the delivery of basic urban
services in Metro Manila, including land use planning and zoning, traffic management, public
safety, urban development and renewal, and sanitation and waste management. It performs
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

planning, monitoring and coordinating functions for services that have metrowide impact and
transcend political boundaries of the sixteen cities and one municipality of the National Capital
Region or Metro Manila. Specifically it is responsible for coordinating and regulating the
implementation of all programs and projects concerning traffic management. It is tasked to
administer a single ticketing system and fix, impose, and collect fines, and penalties for all kinds
of violations of traffic rules and regulations through its Traffic Operation Center.
The Department of Health, the principal health agency in the Philippines, is responsible for
ensuring every Filipino’s access to basic public health services through the provision of quality
health care and regulation of providers of health goods and services. Given the mandate, the DOH
is both a stakeholder in the health sector and a policy and regulatory body for health. As a major
player, the DOH is a technical resource, a catalyser for health policy, and a political sponsor and
advocate for health issues on behalf of the health sector.
The Department of Education (DepEd) is the primary government agency tasked to provide
the school—age population with basic education. It has been long proposed that traffic education
be included in the high school curriculum, but so far, a bill has yet to be discussed in the legislature.
The University of the Philippines National Center for Transportation Studies (UP NCTS)
plays a major role in human resource development in the field of transportation. The center
conducts training and research in the fields of transportation planning, traffic engineering, and
traffic management. A number of subjects related to road safety – road safety programs, accident
investigation, reporting, and analysis – are offered as part of the curriculum of the regular training
programs for the participants of traffic engineering course and traffic management for traffic law
enforcers course.
The Safety Organization of the Philippines Inc. (SOPI) is a private organization operated
by donations from private companies as well as from government agencies. The activities of SOPI
cover not only road safety but also the prevention of nay types of accidents. The month of May is
set by SOPI as the “Road Safety Month” during which it conducts road safety campaigns in
cooperation with private companies and government agencies. Aside from annual national meeting
on road safety, SOPI issues booklets and other materials for road safety education.
The Automobile Association Philippines (AAP), formerly the Philippine Motor
Association, is a private organization that has dedicated itself to the promotion of motoring and to
the service of the Philippine motorists for more than half a century. This organization also serves
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

the needs of Philippine motorists worldwide through its affiliation with the two most distinguished
motoring federations in the world: the Alliance Internationale de Tourisme and the Federation
Internationale de l’Automobile. Members of the association can avail themselves of a number of
privileges, such as twenty-four-hour roadside free-towing services within Metro Manila,
discounted driving lessons, free motor vehicle registration service, twenty-four-hour ambulance
service at minimal cost, international driving permit, and accident investigation assistance.
In the smallest administrative unit, which is called the barangay, volunteers serve as traffic
aides. They assist the traffic police in controlling traffic at bottlenecks and in case of accident
occurrence.

7.5 INITIATIVES ON ROAD SFETY

Among the most recent initiatives that the government has introduced are the following:

7.5.1 Imposing a Motor Vehicle User’s Fee on Owners of All Types of Motor Vehicles (RA 8794,
2000)
Section 7 of RA 8794 provides, among others, that 7.5 percent of all monies collected under
this Act shall be allotted to and placed in the special road safety fund under the DPWH. Also under
the Act, a portion of the special funs shall be appointed to provincial and city governments in
accordance with the vehicle population and side of the road network under their respective
jurisdictions, and shall be used exclusively for maintenance of local roads, traffic management,
and road safety devices.

7.5.2 Motor Vehicle Inspection System by the LTO

Inspection of motor vehicle is a prerequisite to vehicle registration, with the objective of
ensuring that the vehicle is in good condition. Structural and safety components of the vehicle ae
officially examined.

7.5.3 Seat Belt Law (RA 8750)

The seat Belt Law, passed in year 2000, requires installation of and buckling up of seatbelts
on front seats only of private vehicles. No special requirements are stipulated for children. For
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

public utility jeepneys, only the driver and the passengers seated in seats facing forward are
required to wear seatbelts. In the case of public utility buses, only the driver and the passenger
seated immediately behind the driver, and the passengers seated immediately behind the door of
the bus are required to wear seatbelts.

7.5.4 Banning the Use of Cellular Phones and Handset Radios while Operating or Driving a Motor
Vehicle (RA 7924)
The se of cellular phones while driving has been banned within Metro Manila since March
1997 because of its potential hazards to motorists. Though still small in number, accidents that
were primarily attributed to using cellular phone while driving have occurred.

7.5.5 Other Initiatives

As mentioned earlier, the UNICEF Philippines conducted a study on the reduction of
incidence of childhood death and disability resulting from preventable injuries on 2003. This study
was similar to the first project on Child Injury Prevention supported by the UNICEF in Vietnam.
The results of the study have confirmed the seriousness of the country’s problem regarding road
safety and unreliability of data as provided by the police.

7.6 ROAD SAFETY ISSUES

There is a need to stress the urgency of improving safety on our roads. The following
should be given priority in addressing the issue of safety:

7.6.1 Legislative
There seems to be a general consensus that majority of road accidents are attributed to
driver’s error. The government must not delay implementing stronger driver licensing control and
driver improvement programs, the first step in weeding out undesirables on the road. The licensing
system in the Philippine is to lax that one does not have to learn how to drive before getting a
driver’s license. Driver licensing requirements should be tied in with driver education.
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There is an urgent need to reconvene the National Road Safety Committee, which has not
met for a long time. A more powerful national safety committee is necessary to formulate action
plans or develop agenda toward reduction of traffic accidents in the country.
Campaigns prohibiting street children, vendors and the like on the carriageway and
sidewalk cleaning of vendors must be continued.
Banning of dilapidated (road unworthy) vehicles on the road must be strictly enforced.
Overloading of passengers must be strictly prohibited.
The road right of way must be assigned for carriageway of the road users, paths for
pedestrians, for installation of appropriate traffic control devices, etc. No commercial
advertisements should be mounted or installed within the road’s right of way as they compete for
driver’s attention.

7.6.2 Institutional
Availability of reliable data on accidents is key to understanding how the transportation
system works. However, without a systematic method of accident data collection, processing, and
analysis, the overall picture of road safety in the Philippines remains obscure. The seemingly rosy
picture depicted by statistics must not make us complacent as these cannot simply cover up for the
failure of our transportation system comprising the road, the driver, and the vehicle. There must
be a wholehearted commitment to improve traffic accident investigation, reporting, and analysis.
While computer databases, on traffic accidents have been developed at the DPWH and the MMDA,
integration of the two is necessary to establish an integrated accident database incorporating police
and hospital reports. Figure 7.8 shows the structure of the proposed integrated traffic accident data
management system. This is possible only if there is a very strong linkage between the police and
the hospitals. This may be achieved by undertaking a memorandum of agreement between the DIG
and the DOH.
Sustainability of the on-going efforts in maintaining the accident databases has to be
strongly considered.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

7.6.3 Technical
As to the road environment, whatever changes in control or geometric improvements
applied to intersections or roadways bring about significant change in accident occurrence and
accident rates. Caution is therefore advised when conducting test runs or experiments without prior
careful analysis. A trial-and-error method of solving traffic problem must be avoided.
Since many accidents occur during night time, efforts must be exerted to improve visibility
at night. Placement of appropriate traffic control devices (warning devices, delineators, reflectors,
etc.) at hazardous locations can help minimized accidents. Figure 7.9 shows a section of the NLEX
installed with traffic control devices.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

Improved uniform warning traffic signs and marking devices on all roads must be applied;
rules must be written in a concise, readable way and placed in prominent spots.
Along highways, guardrails and median barriers keep vehicle from straying (in most cases
unintentionally) into dangerous or off-limit areas. Figure 7.10 shows an example of W-beam
guardrail and the New Jersey median barrier. Guardrails must be used to prevent vehicles from
veering off a road into oncoming traffic, crashing against solid objects (like a bridge pillar), or
falling into a ravine. Guardrails and medians also keep the vehicle upright while it is deflected
along the barrier.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

Some of the traffic calming measures may be adopted to improve safety for pedestrians
and bicyclists as well as improve the environment for residents. Calming measures are now very
common in Europe and in North America. According to the Institute of Transportation Engineers’
definition, traffic calming is a set of street designs and traffic rules that slow and reduce traffic
while encouraging walkers and cyclists to share the street. Behind traffic calming is the belief that
streets are valuable public spaces that should be shared equally by all users. Traffic calming
devices are simple, inexpensive, self-enforcing, and easily modified to accommodate emergency
vehicles, garbage trucks, and buses. Traffic calming has been widely used to reduce traffic
accidents, increase the safety and convenience for pedestrians and other non-motorists, give more
space for children to play, eliminate noise and pollution, improve scenery, provide neighbourhood
revitalization and stability, and reduce crime.
There have been a number of calming measures implemented successfully, some of which
are as follows:
a. Raising the surface of the street in certain spots – for example by installing speed humps
(figure 7.11)
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

b. Adding fixtures around which motorists must drive – such as landscaped islands or
small roundabout in the middle of intersections (figure 7.12)

c. Narrowing the street, to give drivers the feeling that they’re in a crowded place, which
helps make them slow down
d. Totally or partially closing a street – for example, by blocking half the entrance to a
size street to so drivers cannot turn in, but can still come out

Research on the area of traffic safety has not been given a full attention here in the country.
But several questions need to be answered in order to develop a better traffic safety program:
Where are the high accident locations? How many were killed and injured last year? Where?
When? How?
Some of the more urgent topics for research are as follows:
a. Real causes of motor vehicle accidents, as differentiated from circumstantial factors
b. Driver behavior and accidents (speeding, inattention, ignoring traffic control devices,
drunk driving, driving on drugs, failure to “buckle up”, etc.)
c. Relation of specific road and vehicle design elements to highway safety
d. Monotony and fatigue problems in expressway driving or in a long-distance driving.
e. Developing improved means of communication from the highway to the individual
user and between drivers.
f. Estimation of cost of traffic accidents.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

7.6.4 Education and Campaigns

There must be a continuing program to increase the level of awareness on road safety. The
program must include expanded and proper use of all media. Safer pedestrian habits both through
education and control measures must be given importance. Figure 7.13 shows the teaching
modules intended for Grade 6 and fourth year high school levels.

7.6.5 Sociocultural
It is a familiar saying that anyone who can drive in the Philippines can drive anywhere in
the world. It means experiencing driving on Philippine roads is like going through the most
challenging driving situations. The prevalent mentality of “pwede na ‘yan” a mindset of mediocrity
and getting one’s way out of trouble, makes rules and regulations practically useless. It is a s if
chaos is a better or more acceptable stable to be than having some order to things. Commuters
wish to get off at any point at their whim and fancy, and drivers of public utility vehicles give in.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

Drivers themselves pick up passengers at any point even if it means blocking a whole trail of
vehicles behind them. They do not observe the right of way but have their own habit of “ngusuan”
– that of sticking out their vehicle first so as to get ahead first. The culture of corruption penetrates
all sectors of society, not to exclude traffic matters. Due to bribes or under-the-table transactions,
there are licensed drivers who are underage, illiterate, drug addicts, don’t understand road rules or
traffic signs, drive even when drunk, have bad tempers, and use their guns at the slightest road
quarrel or irritation.

7.7 COST OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS

The present world scenario depicts that traffic accidents claim approximately two human
lives every minute. Besides causing prime loss in terms of human lives, these occurrences also
bring about tremendous amount of wastage in terms of finances, property, time, resources, and
services. Medical efforts alone geared toward the treatment and needed rehabilitation of accident
victims are obviously huge and tedious. Investigation and litigation processes involved can also
be very taxing not only financially but also emotionally for the bereaved and grieving family. A
great amount of labor resources is likewise lost as manpower is reduced due to absence form work
for treatment or for processing insurance claims, absence due to injuries with disabilities, and
actual loss of human assets due to deaths. In the Philippine setting, just a single traffic accident
can be peculiarly costly as it has a potential to cause heavy traffic jams due to too much delay in
the investigation and rescue processes. This in turn causes additional losses for all the other people
affected.
While the problem of road safety is improving in developed countries, the situation seems
to be getting worse in developing ones where priority is more focused on providing transportation
infrastructure geared toward improving mobility of people (Sigua 2000). The very high growth
rate of vehicles in developing countries has compounded the problem of road safety. In the past
ten years, the volume of vehicles in the Philippines has more than doubles (1.88 million in 1992
and 4.19 million in 2002). Once merely a status symbol, owning a car has become a necessity due
to inadequacy of public transportation services and has contributed to the deterioration of the
environment through pollution. The lack of driver education and weak enforcement exacerbate the
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

situation. Overspeeding and complete disregard for and lax implementation of traffic rules and
regulations have contributed to the rise of casualties on the road.
Life is considered most sacred, and there seems to be a strong disagreement whether to put
a monetary value on it or not. Some people are uncomfortable or emotionally very reluctant to
assess traffic accidents involving human lives in terms of money. For while properties and financed
may be restored, human lives lost cannot. Putting a monetary value to human life or to a fatal
accident may be a topic for heated debate but the same lack of cost estimates leaves many,
including the decision makers, still groping in the dark.
But if it would create awareness of the worsening road safety situation in our country alone,
an estimation of the losses attributed to traffic accidents is very well justified. Like the growing
concern for the environment, it is high time that the government takes action in promoting safety
on the road. If realistic estimates of the cost of losses can be made, there is no reason why the
government cannot take action in reducing it. The estimate must truly reflect the actual worsening
condition of our roads as far as safety is concerned. While it is recognized that data gaps exist,
reasonable assumptions must be made as an initial attempt. Improvement of the estimate can be
done in the future as data become readily available and collection efforts improve.

7.7.1 Uses of Accident Cost Estimates

The reason for estimating accident costs may seem obvious but it is seldom expressed
explicitly. Costs are sometimes used for general statements such as “Accidents in (country) are
worth more than (so many) (million dollars) per year,” or accidents are (so many percent of a
country’s GDP). For such purposes, ballpark figures are sufficient as long as they are of the right
magnitude. (Andreassen 1988). Costs are also required for assessing the value of improving a
highway, installing traffic signals, enforcing specific traffic laws, putting reflective plates n trucks,
various safety countermeasures, etc. When these are to be considered, a very specific cost is
required to determine the benefit.
The promotion of traffic safety contributes to improvements of the welfare of society in
two ways (OECD Report, 1981):
a. BY voiding accidents and accident consequences the losses of resources caused by
accidents are avoided as well.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

b. By avoiding accidents and their social costs, resources can be saved, which otherwise
would be devoted to the relief of accident consequences.

The first point includes the avoidance of production losses due to the incapacity of accident
victims, damage to capital goods, and traffic congestion resulting from accidents.
The second point includes the avoidance of the following costs: medical treatment of
persons involved in accidents, repair of property damage, police investigation, legal and court
procedures, and insurance administration. The resources saved can be used elsewhere to increase
welfare.

7.7.2 Approaches to Estimating Cost of Accidents

A number of methodologies to estimate the cost of accidents have been introduced in the
past, including the following:
a. Gross output/ human capital method
b. Life insurance method
c. Court award method
d. Implicit public sector valuation method
e. Net Output Method
f. Value of risk change or willingness-to-pay method

These methods are documented by Alfaro, Chapuis, and Fabre (1994); Jacobs (1995); and
Babtie Ross Silcokc and TRL (2003).
The life insurance method measures the valuation of risk associated with road usage and is
determined by the premiums that he driver population is willing to pay. On the other hand, the curt
award method is based on the actual compensation settlements awarded, which may be influenced
by the degree of negligence found. In the implicit public sector valuation method, a set of implicit
values is used to value human lives.
However, most of these estimation methods have been generally discredited (Babtie Ross
Silcock and TRL 2003). To date, the two commonly accepted methods to estimate the economic
cost of accidents are as follows:
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

a. Gross output or human capital method. This approach focuses on the economic
consequences of a road accident, and usually also includes a notional sum that reflects
the pain, grief, and suffering incurred by the persons involved and their family. It is
based on the idea that the value to society of avoiding a death or injury is related to the
potentially lost economic output and resources.
b. Willingness-to-pay method. This is based on the amount that a person is willing to pay
to avid an accident. This is a very subjective measure that reflects individual
preferences, values, and perceptions of risk. It is extremely difficult to reliably estimate
and will vary significantly from person to person and from place to place.

The willingness-to-pay method has become the preferred costing method in many
developed countries as it has been recognized as the best way to measure the costing of accidents
for the purpose of benefit-cost analysis. Recognizing the difficulty of implementing this method
in developing countries due to its data requirements (the method relies on the completion of a
complex questionnaire), the ADB publication Road Safety Guidelines for the Asian and Pacific
Region recommends the gross output method. The guideline considers is as the appropriate method
to be used in developing countries because it relates more closely to direct economic impacts and
the practical measurable consequences of road accidents. That is the approach used in this cost
estimation, and the detailed methodology for dealing with data gaps, underreporting, etc. is in line
with the guidance document provided to the author by the ADB

7.7.3 Determination of Cost Components

Consistent with the gross output method and the ADB guidelines, the accident cost
components can be grouped into five major cost categories shown in table 7.5:
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

Lost output
Lost output is generally considered as the largest resource cost incurred due to a traffic
accident. It is an expression of the loss to society of the productive manpower, be it permanent or
temporary. Its value varies widely, ranging from a one day lost time for minor injury incident, to
long years of foregone work for those killed or permanently disabled.

Pain, grief and suffering

Strictly speaking, mental suffering, pain and other emotional factors cannot be assessed.
They defy evaluation in terms of money, and must therefore be taken as a true intangibles.
However, in practice some countries add an assumed lump sum or proportional amount to
measured accident costs to allow for emotional losses.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

Medical treatment and hospital costs

The treatment and rehabilitation of traffic accident victims require the use of medical
resources, i.e., work input of the personnel (ambulance men, doctors, nurses, etc.) and provision
of rescue equipment, hospital beds, instruments, and other medical aids, such as drugs. If injuries
caused by traffic accidents could be avoided, these resources could be made available for other
purposes, such as treatment of the sick, or their basic components could be transferred to other
uses. The following components can be distinguished:
a. On-the-spot medical treatment
b. Transport and treatment on the way
c. Treatment at the hospital
d. Rehab at the hospital
e. Outpatient follow-up treatment
f. General treatment

Although considerable parts of the medical expenses are paid only to those who provide
such medical services, they may still be regarded as losses to the economy because such services
would have been otherwise provided elsewhere if the traffic accidents had not occurred. The same
applies to the repair charges of damaged vehicles and legal fees.

Property damage
Property damage necessitates or replacement costs of vehicles, goods, and road
accessories. In addition, property damage can result in further welfare losses when capital goods
(e.g., trucks, cars for commercial use, equipment, etc.) are damaged or destroyed and their
productive services are lost. When private passenger cars are damaged, additional welfare losses
may result from the loss of use.
For the determination of property-damage-only involvement costs, insurance records can
be used and the compensation taken as indicator of social losses. Account has to be taken of the
fact that insurance companies generally pay compensation for liability cases only, and are liable
for accidents brought on by one’s own fault only to the extent of a contracted limit. In addition, it
should be noted that there may be considerable difference between the cases recorded by the
insurance companies and the police records.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

With respect to property losses, evaluation is relatively easy because the market prices and
repair charges for the property lost or damaged can be regarded as a good expression of the
objective values.

Administrative costs
The police are called out to the sites of traffic accidents to control traffic and investigate
and record the accidents. Total work hours required for handling traffic accidents have to be
considered. A patrol car is dispatched to each traffic accident site to control traffic and deal with
the accident. Since the patrol car is also used for other purposes, half of its total expenses will be
taken up in connection with traffic accidents. In addition, the police headquarters uses cameras for
photographing accident sites. Some of the other components of administrative costs are judicial
costs and insurance administrative costs. The functions of the court dealing with traffic accidents
include (a) civil suits for damages, (b) civil mediation, (c) criminal suits for negligence, and (d)
summary criminal procedures. Most of the damage caused by traffic accidents is covered by
insurance, and the operating expenses required to support this system also constitute part of the
costs and expenses incidental to traffic accidents.
Figure 7.14 provides a summary of the different cost components that may be involved in
each accident, depending on the type of severity:
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

Based on the diagram, a fatal accident would incur loss of productive life of the victim:
pain, grief, and suffering of loved ones left; medical expense when the victim was brought to the
hospital before dying; a number of miscellaneous expenses that would constitute administrative
costs; and cost of a totally wrecked vehicle or cost of repair of a damaged vehicle. Similar cost
components may be incurred when a victim becomes permanently disabled due to a serious injury
accident. A minor injury accident would still incur some medical costs and require some paper
work, and, possibly, minor repair of a slightly damaged vehicle.

Other assumptions
A range of assumptions underlie the recommended methodology. The major additional
assumption is that all accident are costed out as though all steps were taken to restore people,
vehicles, and property as closely as possible to their condition prior to the accident. It means that:
• injured persons receive full medical treatment, are treated in a hospital if seriously injured,
and recuperate for the recommended period;
• injured persons are considered to be employed (or potentially employable);
• vehicles are repaired according to manufacturer’s specifications; and
• an accident report is made, all the proper paperwork is completed, and insurance claims
are filed and recorded accurately.

Some indirect costs of accidents

Aside from the major cost components previously discussed, there are other costs that may
be attributed to traffic accidents. One is the cost of transportation services for the injured from the
accident spot to the hospital. In a number of cases, the law-abiding “offender” is the one that brings
the victim to the hospital. In some cases, a concerned citizen may offer his or her vehicle to bring
the victim to the hospital. It is seldom that a hospital ambulance would be called to the rescue of
the victim, although at present, ambulance services provided by some rescue teams may be
summoned to the accident site when notified by a phone call.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

Losses caused by traffic congestion

Traffic accidents often caused bottlenecks. A few minutes of congestion can easily create
gridlocks at intersections and several kilometres of vehicle queues in urban areas. The people
affected by such bottlenecks incur loss of time and fuel, and suffer both mental and physical stress.

7.7.4 Estimation of Cost Components

Following the ADB guidelines, the gross output method requires a procedure that is
relatively easy to follow. What remains is the problem of collecting pertinent data that will be used
as inputs in the step-by-step procedure. While collection of such data does not pose a major
problem in developed countries, it becomes a major task in developing countries like the
Philippines. It must be stressed once again that traffic accident data are very valuable: data
collection, therefore, requires conscientious effort on the part of the agencies concerned.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

Underlying assumptions
The gross output method requires input to a number of variables incorporated in each cost
component. Some of these variables require estimation from available secondary data. However,
some variables cannot estimation unless comprehensive primary data collection is conducted. In
this case, assumptions based on the experience of other countries are made. Nevertheless,
estimation of the cost of accidents has to be updated on a regular basis. At this point, it is very
important to determine those on variables that have deficiency in data availability. Determination
of these variables can then be incorporated in the research agenda on mad safety. The National
Center for Transportation Studies of the University of the Philippines has actually initiated the
formulation of research agenda as far as traffic safety is concerned. One notable research on traffic
analysis focusing on hospital records (Vibal 2003) proved to be very valuable in determining the
extent of severity of human damage attributed to road crashes.

Average age of seriously injured

Based on Vibal’s study, “Traffic Accident Analysis through Hospital Records” (2003),
which examined 617 cases of serious injuries in road accidents (including forty-four fatalities), the
average age of seriously injured persons, was twenty-eight years. The most seriously injured
persons were in the age range of thirteen to thirty-nine years.
Average age of fatalities
This has been assumed to be the same as the average age of persons seriously injured.

Damage to property
Damage to property can be obtained from insurance companies based on property damage
claims for motor vehicle accidents. Property damage costs can vary considerably depending on the
degree of wreckage sustained. It may therefore be necessary to obtain estimates based on accidents
stratified according to severity.
As previously mentioned, the repair costs are calculated as if all vehicles are repaired
according to manufacturer's specifications, since represents the resource cost to the community of
vehicle damage. Information on average claims was supplied by the Insurance Sure the Philippines
(ISAR) on a confidential basis. The average claim was converted to 2003 figures, and allowance
was then added for total wrecks, owners cost input and towing. In general, vehicles involved in
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

fatal serious injury accidents will be damaged more severely than ears accidents in which nobody
is injured. No data are currently available the relative cost of damage by injury severity.
International experience indicates that the relative repair cost of accident types compared average
cost is as follows:
Fatal accident 1.55 times average cost
Serious injury 1.40 times average cost
Minor Injury 1.25 times average cost
Damage-only 0.85 times average cost
These translate to
P46,500 per vehicle for a fatal accident
P42,000 per vehicle for a serious injury accident
P37,500 per vehicle for minor injury accident
P25,500 per vehicle for a damage-only accident

Administrative costs
The cost is composed of several components as there are many agencies administering
services related to the accident—traffic police, emergency response services, insurance, and legal
services. It is therefore, very difficult to compute this cost. This is compounded by the problems
of underreporting and the lack or complexity of administrative linkages. The ADB guideline is
followed in estimating the administrative cost. The ADB recommends that the administrative cost
be taken as a percentage of total resource costs (sum of lost output, medical and property damage
cost).
Similar to property damage, the administrative costs associated with an accident are likely
to depend on its severity. In a more serious accident, vehicles may remain on the road longer, and
more policemen may be assigned to direct traffic. There is also the longer and more complicated
process of investigation, claims and follow-ups, and possibly legal proceeding.
The ADB recommends the following:
Fatal accident 0.2% of total fatal accident resource cost
Serious injury 4% of total serious injury resource cost
Minor injury 14% of total minor injury resource cost
Damage-only 10% of total damage-only resource cost
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

Medical costs
Medical costs vary widely depending on the severity of the injury. Serious injury could
mean long hospitalization and rehabilitation.
a. Serious injury
i. Stay in the hospital
In a recent study of traffic accidents using hospital records (Vibal 2003), victims' hospital
stay depending on the severity of injury is as follows: six to eight days and seventeen days for
typical and more severe pedestrian accidents, respectively; five to six days for typical motorcycle
accident and nineteen days for more severe motorcycle cases. For the purpose of this study, an
average of eight days of stay will be used for estimating cost.
During this eight-day period of stay in the hospital, it is necessary to take into consideration
the amount incurred due to hospital care. Based on the rates in a tertiary hospital with daily visits
by a general practitioner, two visits by a specialist, drugs and medicine, and one episode of minor
surgery plus an allowance for the cost of ambulance transfer to the hospital, total cost of hospital
care is estimated at P4,000 per day. This amount Paid in full by the patient without subsidy from
the government.

ii. Recuperation period

While recuperating at home, the injured may still be undergoing medication. During this
period, the person is also off work. As there are no data with regard to recuperation period,
information from experience of other countries may be used. In the case of Australia, a study has
shown that, on the average, a person recuperating from hospital treatment will have an additional
2 days off work for every day of stay in the hospital. This has been confirmed by medical
practitioners in Manila.

b. Minor injury
In the case of minor injuries, two visits to a doctor can be reasonably assumed; the first
visit is for initial assessment of the injury while the second is for follow-up.
Costs incurred during each visit may be as follows: P250 for consulting services and
another P250 fur medication, bandages, etc. Say, P500 per consultation.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

c. Permanent disability
When a seriously injured person becomes permanently disabled, the cost will include
medical expenses, special equipment (wheelchair or special bed), and employing a nurse. In case
a family member acts as caregiver, the cost also includes lost income due to his or her absence
from work. In the absence of data on long-term care, about P100 per day is assumed to cover the
costs of long-term care for the permanently disabled.
Based on limited records so far inputted to TARAS of the DPV/H, the following
information was obtained. (It is recognized that when more data are collected, better estimates can
be obtained.)
Average number of vehicles involved in each accident type:
1.4 vehicles per fatal accident
1.5 vehicles per serious injury accident
1.5 vehicles per minor injury accident
1.8 vehicles per property damage accident

Average number of injuries in a fatal accident:

1.1 fatalities
0.4 serious injuries

Average number of injuries in a serious injury accident:

1.5 serious injuries

Average number of injuries in a minor injury accident:

1.1 minor injuries

7.8 ESTIMATION OF AVERAGE COST OF ACCIDENTS

In this section, computation of average cost for each type of accidents will be shown. The
estimates are based on values of the different variables explained in the previous chapter (Cost
Components) and follow the calculation procedure given on table 7.6.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

7.8.1 Estimation of Cost of a Single Fatal Accident

The estimation of the cost of a fatal accident requires the calculation of the five cost
components: lost output; pain, grief, and suffering; medical cost administrative costs; and cost of
repair of the damaged vehicle (see table 7.7). The estimated average cost of a fatal accident is
approximately P23 million.

7.8.2 Estimation of Cost of a Single Serious Injury Accident

The same cost items are considered in estimating the average cost N3/4,000"us injury
accident (table 7.8). The estimated average cost is
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

7.8.3 Estimation of Cost of a Single Minor Injury Accident

The estimation of the average cost of a minor injury accident requires the calculation of
three cost items: medical cost, repair of vehicle cost, and administrative costs. A single minor
injury accident would amount to approximately P70,000 ( table 7.9).

7.8.4 Estimation of Cost of a Single Property-Damage-Only Accident

Aside from the cost of repair of a damaged vehicle, administrative cost is also incurred
when a damage-only accident occurs. A damage-only accident would cost about P55,000 (table
7.10). (This excludes cost only may be incurred due to repair or replacement of damaged road
signs and other street fixtures.)
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

7.8.5 Summary of Average Cost of Each Type of Accident

Table 7.11 shows the summary of average cost of accident by type. Using the property-
damage-only (PDO) cost as point of reference, the average cost for fatal injury is about 40x higher;
for serious injury, 6x; and for minor injury, 1.25x.

7.9 ESTIMATION OF NATIONAL COST

Once the average cost of each type of accident is obtained, the total cost of accidents may
be estimated by multiplying the total number of accidents of each type by the average cost. Again,
the types the analysis are as follows:
a. Fatal accident
b. Serious injury accident
c. Minor injury accident
d. Property-damage-only accident

7.9.1 Data Availability and Quality

In the Philippines, researchers rely mostly on accident data provided by the police. More
specifically, the Traffic Management Group which is responsible for accident data keeping for the
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

whole country. It is generally accepted that there is a serious problem in the reporting of accidents
because of the following reasons:
a. Although the Philippines recognizes the UN Organization's definition of traffic death—
one that occurs within thirty days of the event—our count is still based on "death at
scene." Even though most countries still use different definitions, their accident
statistics are adjusted by applying correction factors to conform to the standard
definition. Our current system of accident data keeping makes statistical adjustment
almost impossible to do.
b. A major cause of the underestimating of traffic accident statistics in the Philippines is
the lack of an effective means of updating fatality and injury data. At present, the
country has yet to develop a system of transferring records from hospitals to the TMG
c. Recording and updating are prone to errors as done manually. There are also cases of
records getting lost or of misplaced.

Even the PNP itself acknowledges that there is a serious problem of underreporting of
traffic accidents. Aside from the absence of an efficient road accident data system, there is a great
discrepancy between hospital and police records. Figure 7.15 shows the official statistics from the
health sector. Deaths attributed to traffic accidents in 1970, 1980, 1990, and 1998 are available
from the Philippine Health Statistics. In the 2003, Philippine National Injury Survey funded by the
UNICEF, approximately 9,000 fatalities were attributed to road traffic accidents, a tremendous
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

increase from the 1998 of 3,800. For the year 2002, the police, in contrast, reported only 801
fatalities, clearly show a very serious problem of underreporting.
The situation of underreporting for injury cases is far worse than that for fatal cases. A
number of previous studies have highlighted the relationship between the number of crash deaths
and injuries. Barrs et. al. (1998) quoted a generic ratio of 10:25 injuries to deaths (with half
requiring hospitalization), but the only developing country example Included was from an urban
hospital study in Ethiopia, which reported sixteen injuries for every death (Dessie and Lawson
1991). A three-month study conducted by Malaysia's Public Health Department (Rahman 2002)
reported 19,271 casualties receiving treatment at hospitals. Of these, 1.3 Percent were fatal and 79
percent received outpatient treatment. Thus for every road death, there were fifteen hospitalized
and another sixty-one slightly injured.
Underreporting was believed to be much greater for injuries than deaths (Jacobs,
Aeron-Thomas, and Astrop 2000). To estimate global road casualties, the study adopted a ratio of
100 injuries to a fatality for high-income countries, while a conservative road death to injury ratio
of 20:30 was used for low-income countries. In the first Safe Community Conference on Cost
Calculation and Cost-Effectiveness in Injury Prevention and Safety Promotion, a ratio of 70 slight
injuries and 15 serious injuries to every death was suggested to apply to most countries (Barrs et
al. 1998).
In the case of the Philippines, three major hospitals having the highest number of in-
patients with traffic accident-related cases were studied (Vibal 2003). The study primarily focused
on fatal and serious injury cases only. Out of the 1,242 cases (with 94 unspecified cases), 67 (5.4
percent) were fatal cases and 1,081 (87 percent) were serious injury. cases. This gives a serious
injury to death ratio of 16:1, which is consistent with the results of the previous studies mentioned
above. In the absence of data on slight injury cases, a ratio of 70:1 will be adopted.
It is far more complicated to estimate the number of property damage-only accidents
because such cases are even more underreported. In the absence of data on this, the estimation of
the number of this type of accident will be based on the ADB guideline of five damage-only
accidents for each injury accident. Again, as data collection efforts improve, a local value for the
Philippines may be estimated more accurately.
In preparation for the estimation of national cost of accidents, it is necessary to determine
the numbers of accidents by type since the individual costs are estimated using that same unit.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

Based on the TMG’s statistics of recorded traffic accidents for the year 2002, the breakdown for
each type is shown in table 7.12.

Applying the corrections attributed to underreporting and the other assumptions adopted in
the previous section, the number of accidents is adjusted (table 7.13).

7.9.2. Calculation of National Costs

Applying the average cost of each type of accidents, the national cost of accidents is
calculated as shown in table 7.14
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS

Without any corrections to the accident statistics collected by the responsible agency, the
cost of traffic accidents is about P2.5 billion or US$ 45 million each year. However, this is a gross
underestimation as it has been shown that there is too much underreporting of accidents. The
estimate cost based on the health sector data amounting to P105 billion (or US$ 1.9 billion) may
still be on the low end because many cost components were not accounted for during the
application of the gross output method. But this cost is already about 2.6 percent of the Philippines’
GDP. A better estimate of the cost is expected when more accurate statistics are made available
due to improved data collection system.