Professional Documents
Culture Documents
situation. Overspeeding and complete disregard for and lax implementation of traffic rules and
regulations have contributed to the rise of casualties on the road.
Life is considered most sacred, and there seems to be a strong disagreement whether to put
a monetary value on it or not. Some people are uncomfortable or emotionally very reluctant to
assess traffic accidents involving human lives in terms of money. For while properties and financed
may be restored, human lives lost cannot. Putting a monetary value to human life or to a fatal
accident may be a topic for heated debate but the same lack of cost estimates leaves many,
including the decision makers, still groping in the dark.
But if it would create awareness of the worsening road safety situation in our country alone,
an estimation of the losses attributed to traffic accidents is very well justified. Like the growing
concern for the environment, it is high time that the government takes action in promoting safety
on the road. If realistic estimates of the cost of losses can be made, there is no reason why the
government cannot take action in reducing it. The estimate must truly reflect the actual worsening
condition of our roads as far as safety is concerned. While it is recognized that data gaps exist,
reasonable assumptions must be made as an initial attempt. Improvement of the estimate can be
done in the future as data become readily available and collection efforts improve.
b. By avoiding accidents and their social costs, resources can be saved, which otherwise
would be devoted to the relief of accident consequences.
The first point includes the avoidance of production losses due to the incapacity of accident
victims, damage to capital goods, and traffic congestion resulting from accidents.
The second point includes the avoidance of the following costs: medical treatment of
persons involved in accidents, repair of property damage, police investigation, legal and court
procedures, and insurance administration. The resources saved can be used elsewhere to increase
welfare.
These methods are documented by Alfaro, Chapuis, and Fabre (1994); Jacobs (1995); and
Babtie Ross Silcokc and TRL (2003).
The life insurance method measures the valuation of risk associated with road usage and is
determined by the premiums that he driver population is willing to pay. On the other hand, the curt
award method is based on the actual compensation settlements awarded, which may be influenced
by the degree of negligence found. In the implicit public sector valuation method, a set of implicit
values is used to value human lives.
However, most of these estimation methods have been generally discredited (Babtie Ross
Silcock and TRL 2003). To date, the two commonly accepted methods to estimate the economic
cost of accidents are as follows:
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
a. Gross output or human capital method. This approach focuses on the economic
consequences of a road accident, and usually also includes a notional sum that reflects
the pain, grief, and suffering incurred by the persons involved and their family. It is
based on the idea that the value to society of avoiding a death or injury is related to the
potentially lost economic output and resources.
b. Willingness-to-pay method. This is based on the amount that a person is willing to pay
to avid an accident. This is a very subjective measure that reflects individual
preferences, values, and perceptions of risk. It is extremely difficult to reliably estimate
and will vary significantly from person to person and from place to place.
The willingness-to-pay method has become the preferred costing method in many
developed countries as it has been recognized as the best way to measure the costing of accidents
for the purpose of benefit-cost analysis. Recognizing the difficulty of implementing this method
in developing countries due to its data requirements (the method relies on the completion of a
complex questionnaire), the ADB publication Road Safety Guidelines for the Asian and Pacific
Region recommends the gross output method. The guideline considers is as the appropriate method
to be used in developing countries because it relates more closely to direct economic impacts and
the practical measurable consequences of road accidents. That is the approach used in this cost
estimation, and the detailed methodology for dealing with data gaps, underreporting, etc. is in line
with the guidance document provided to the author by the ADB
Lost output
Lost output is generally considered as the largest resource cost incurred due to a traffic
accident. It is an expression of the loss to society of the productive manpower, be it permanent or
temporary. Its value varies widely, ranging from a one day lost time for minor injury incident, to
long years of foregone work for those killed or permanently disabled.
Although considerable parts of the medical expenses are paid only to those who provide
such medical services, they may still be regarded as losses to the economy because such services
would have been otherwise provided elsewhere if the traffic accidents had not occurred. The same
applies to the repair charges of damaged vehicles and legal fees.
Property damage
Property damage necessitates or replacement costs of vehicles, goods, and road
accessories. In addition, property damage can result in further welfare losses when capital goods
(e.g., trucks, cars for commercial use, equipment, etc.) are damaged or destroyed and their
productive services are lost. When private passenger cars are damaged, additional welfare losses
may result from the loss of use.
For the determination of property-damage-only involvement costs, insurance records can
be used and the compensation taken as indicator of social losses. Account has to be taken of the
fact that insurance companies generally pay compensation for liability cases only, and are liable
for accidents brought on by one’s own fault only to the extent of a contracted limit. In addition, it
should be noted that there may be considerable difference between the cases recorded by the
insurance companies and the police records.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
With respect to property losses, evaluation is relatively easy because the market prices and
repair charges for the property lost or damaged can be regarded as a good expression of the
objective values.
Administrative costs
The police are called out to the sites of traffic accidents to control traffic and investigate
and record the accidents. Total work hours required for handling traffic accidents have to be
considered. A patrol car is dispatched to each traffic accident site to control traffic and deal with
the accident. Since the patrol car is also used for other purposes, half of its total expenses will be
taken up in connection with traffic accidents. In addition, the police headquarters uses cameras for
photographing accident sites. Some of the other components of administrative costs are judicial
costs and insurance administrative costs. The functions of the court dealing with traffic accidents
include (a) civil suits for damages, (b) civil mediation, (c) criminal suits for negligence, and (d)
summary criminal procedures. Most of the damage caused by traffic accidents is covered by
insurance, and the operating expenses required to support this system also constitute part of the
costs and expenses incidental to traffic accidents.
Figure 7.14 provides a summary of the different cost components that may be involved in
each accident, depending on the type of severity:
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Based on the diagram, a fatal accident would incur loss of productive life of the victim:
pain, grief, and suffering of loved ones left; medical expense when the victim was brought to the
hospital before dying; a number of miscellaneous expenses that would constitute administrative
costs; and cost of a totally wrecked vehicle or cost of repair of a damaged vehicle. Similar cost
components may be incurred when a victim becomes permanently disabled due to a serious injury
accident. A minor injury accident would still incur some medical costs and require some paper
work, and, possibly, minor repair of a slightly damaged vehicle.
Other assumptions
A range of assumptions underlie the recommended methodology. The major additional
assumption is that all accident are costed out as though all steps were taken to restore people,
vehicles, and property as closely as possible to their condition prior to the accident. It means that:
• injured persons receive full medical treatment, are treated in a hospital if seriously injured,
and recuperate for the recommended period;
• injured persons are considered to be employed (or potentially employable);
• vehicles are repaired according to manufacturer’s specifications; and
• an accident report is made, all the proper paperwork is completed, and insurance claims
are filed and recorded accurately.
Underlying assumptions
The gross output method requires input to a number of variables incorporated in each cost
component. Some of these variables require estimation from available secondary data. However,
some variables cannot estimation unless comprehensive primary data collection is conducted. In
this case, assumptions based on the experience of other countries are made. Nevertheless,
estimation of the cost of accidents has to be updated on a regular basis. At this point, it is very
important to determine those on variables that have deficiency in data availability. Determination
of these variables can then be incorporated in the research agenda on mad safety. The National
Center for Transportation Studies of the University of the Philippines has actually initiated the
formulation of research agenda as far as traffic safety is concerned. One notable research on traffic
analysis focusing on hospital records (Vibal 2003) proved to be very valuable in determining the
extent of severity of human damage attributed to road crashes.
Damage to property
Damage to property can be obtained from insurance companies based on property damage
claims for motor vehicle accidents. Property damage costs can vary considerably depending on the
degree of wreckage sustained. It may therefore be necessary to obtain estimates based on accidents
stratified according to severity.
As previously mentioned, the repair costs are calculated as if all vehicles are repaired
according to manufacturer's specifications, since represents the resource cost to the community of
vehicle damage. Information on average claims was supplied by the Insurance Sure the Philippines
(ISAR) on a confidential basis. The average claim was converted to 2003 figures, and allowance
was then added for total wrecks, owners cost input and towing. In general, vehicles involved in
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
fatal serious injury accidents will be damaged more severely than ears accidents in which nobody
is injured. No data are currently available the relative cost of damage by injury severity.
International experience indicates that the relative repair cost of accident types compared average
cost is as follows:
Fatal accident 1.55 times average cost
Serious injury 1.40 times average cost
Minor Injury 1.25 times average cost
Damage-only 0.85 times average cost
These translate to
P46,500 per vehicle for a fatal accident
P42,000 per vehicle for a serious injury accident
P37,500 per vehicle for minor injury accident
P25,500 per vehicle for a damage-only accident
Administrative costs
The cost is composed of several components as there are many agencies administering
services related to the accident—traffic police, emergency response services, insurance, and legal
services. It is therefore, very difficult to compute this cost. This is compounded by the problems
of underreporting and the lack or complexity of administrative linkages. The ADB guideline is
followed in estimating the administrative cost. The ADB recommends that the administrative cost
be taken as a percentage of total resource costs (sum of lost output, medical and property damage
cost).
Similar to property damage, the administrative costs associated with an accident are likely
to depend on its severity. In a more serious accident, vehicles may remain on the road longer, and
more policemen may be assigned to direct traffic. There is also the longer and more complicated
process of investigation, claims and follow-ups, and possibly legal proceeding.
The ADB recommends the following:
Fatal accident 0.2% of total fatal accident resource cost
Serious injury 4% of total serious injury resource cost
Minor injury 14% of total minor injury resource cost
Damage-only 10% of total damage-only resource cost
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Medical costs
Medical costs vary widely depending on the severity of the injury. Serious injury could
mean long hospitalization and rehabilitation.
a. Serious injury
i. Stay in the hospital
In a recent study of traffic accidents using hospital records (Vibal 2003), victims' hospital
stay depending on the severity of injury is as follows: six to eight days and seventeen days for
typical and more severe pedestrian accidents, respectively; five to six days for typical motorcycle
accident and nineteen days for more severe motorcycle cases. For the purpose of this study, an
average of eight days of stay will be used for estimating cost.
During this eight-day period of stay in the hospital, it is necessary to take into consideration
the amount incurred due to hospital care. Based on the rates in a tertiary hospital with daily visits
by a general practitioner, two visits by a specialist, drugs and medicine, and one episode of minor
surgery plus an allowance for the cost of ambulance transfer to the hospital, total cost of hospital
care is estimated at P4,000 per day. This amount Paid in full by the patient without subsidy from
the government.
b. Minor injury
In the case of minor injuries, two visits to a doctor can be reasonably assumed; the first
visit is for initial assessment of the injury while the second is for follow-up.
Costs incurred during each visit may be as follows: P250 for consulting services and
another P250 fur medication, bandages, etc. Say, P500 per consultation.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
c. Permanent disability
When a seriously injured person becomes permanently disabled, the cost will include
medical expenses, special equipment (wheelchair or special bed), and employing a nurse. In case
a family member acts as caregiver, the cost also includes lost income due to his or her absence
from work. In the absence of data on long-term care, about P100 per day is assumed to cover the
costs of long-term care for the permanently disabled.
Based on limited records so far inputted to TARAS of the DPV/H, the following
information was obtained. (It is recognized that when more data are collected, better estimates can
be obtained.)
Average number of vehicles involved in each accident type:
1.4 vehicles per fatal accident
1.5 vehicles per serious injury accident
1.5 vehicles per minor injury accident
1.8 vehicles per property damage accident
In this section, computation of average cost for each type of accidents will be shown. The
estimates are based on values of the different variables explained in the previous chapter (Cost
Components) and follow the calculation procedure given on table 7.6.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Once the average cost of each type of accident is obtained, the total cost of accidents may
be estimated by multiplying the total number of accidents of each type by the average cost. Again,
the types the analysis are as follows:
a. Fatal accident
b. Serious injury accident
c. Minor injury accident
d. Property-damage-only accident
whole country. It is generally accepted that there is a serious problem in the reporting of accidents
because of the following reasons:
a. Although the Philippines recognizes the UN Organization's definition of traffic death—
one that occurs within thirty days of the event—our count is still based on "death at
scene." Even though most countries still use different definitions, their accident
statistics are adjusted by applying correction factors to conform to the standard
definition. Our current system of accident data keeping makes statistical adjustment
almost impossible to do.
b. A major cause of the underestimating of traffic accident statistics in the Philippines is
the lack of an effective means of updating fatality and injury data. At present, the
country has yet to develop a system of transferring records from hospitals to the TMG
c. Recording and updating are prone to errors as done manually. There are also cases of
records getting lost or of misplaced.
Even the PNP itself acknowledges that there is a serious problem of underreporting of
traffic accidents. Aside from the absence of an efficient road accident data system, there is a great
discrepancy between hospital and police records. Figure 7.15 shows the official statistics from the
health sector. Deaths attributed to traffic accidents in 1970, 1980, 1990, and 1998 are available
from the Philippine Health Statistics. In the 2003, Philippine National Injury Survey funded by the
UNICEF, approximately 9,000 fatalities were attributed to road traffic accidents, a tremendous
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
increase from the 1998 of 3,800. For the year 2002, the police, in contrast, reported only 801
fatalities, clearly show a very serious problem of underreporting.
The situation of underreporting for injury cases is far worse than that for fatal cases. A
number of previous studies have highlighted the relationship between the number of crash deaths
and injuries. Barrs et. al. (1998) quoted a generic ratio of 10:25 injuries to deaths (with half
requiring hospitalization), but the only developing country example Included was from an urban
hospital study in Ethiopia, which reported sixteen injuries for every death (Dessie and Lawson
1991). A three-month study conducted by Malaysia's Public Health Department (Rahman 2002)
reported 19,271 casualties receiving treatment at hospitals. Of these, 1.3 Percent were fatal and 79
percent received outpatient treatment. Thus for every road death, there were fifteen hospitalized
and another sixty-one slightly injured.
Underreporting was believed to be much greater for injuries than deaths (Jacobs,
Aeron-Thomas, and Astrop 2000). To estimate global road casualties, the study adopted a ratio of
100 injuries to a fatality for high-income countries, while a conservative road death to injury ratio
of 20:30 was used for low-income countries. In the first Safe Community Conference on Cost
Calculation and Cost-Effectiveness in Injury Prevention and Safety Promotion, a ratio of 70 slight
injuries and 15 serious injuries to every death was suggested to apply to most countries (Barrs et
al. 1998).
In the case of the Philippines, three major hospitals having the highest number of in-
patients with traffic accident-related cases were studied (Vibal 2003). The study primarily focused
on fatal and serious injury cases only. Out of the 1,242 cases (with 94 unspecified cases), 67 (5.4
percent) were fatal cases and 1,081 (87 percent) were serious injury. cases. This gives a serious
injury to death ratio of 16:1, which is consistent with the results of the previous studies mentioned
above. In the absence of data on slight injury cases, a ratio of 70:1 will be adopted.
It is far more complicated to estimate the number of property damage-only accidents
because such cases are even more underreported. In the absence of data on this, the estimation of
the number of this type of accident will be based on the ADB guideline of five damage-only
accidents for each injury accident. Again, as data collection efforts improve, a local value for the
Philippines may be estimated more accurately.
In preparation for the estimation of national cost of accidents, it is necessary to determine
the numbers of accidents by type since the individual costs are estimated using that same unit.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Based on the TMG’s statistics of recorded traffic accidents for the year 2002, the breakdown for
each type is shown in table 7.12.
Applying the corrections attributed to underreporting and the other assumptions adopted in
the previous section, the number of accidents is adjusted (table 7.13).
Without any corrections to the accident statistics collected by the responsible agency, the
cost of traffic accidents is about P2.5 billion or US$ 45 million each year. However, this is a gross
underestimation as it has been shown that there is too much underreporting of accidents. The
estimate cost based on the health sector data amounting to P105 billion (or US$ 1.9 billion) may
still be on the low end because many cost components were not accounted for during the
application of the gross output method. But this cost is already about 2.6 percent of the Philippines’
GDP. A better estimate of the cost is expected when more accurate statistics are made available
due to improved data collection system.
PROBLEMS
1. In planning for highway improvements in a particular region, the traffic accidents have to
be analyzed to give priority to those hazardous or accident-prone locations. The table below
shows the twenty sections considered for analysis. Sections marked with an asterisk (*)
have almost similar characteristics in terms of physical and traffic conditions. Among these
marked sections, which would you consider hazardous at 95 percent level of confidence?
Use
a. classic statistic method
b. rate quality control method
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
2. The five-leg roundabout shown below was the scene of 850 accidents in 2004. The annual
average daily traffic is shown in the corresponding route OD table. Determine the accident
rate of the roundabout.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
3. The figure below shows the road network inside a town proper. According to accident
statistics over the last three years, the ten intersections having the highest number of
accidents are shown in the corresponding table. The total entering traffic for each
intersection is also shown. Identify the intersections that may be considered hazardous,
using 95 percent level of confidence.
4. The table below shows the average cost of traffic accident by type:
For a particular year, if the number of fatal victims (based on hospital data) is 5,000,
estimate the total accident cost.
REFERENCES
Alfaro, J. M. Chapuis, and F. Fabre, eds. 1994. COST 313. Socioeconomic cost of road
accidents. Report EUR 15464 EN, Brussels, Commission of the European Communities.
Andreassen, D.C. 1988. The application of cost data in traffic safety- Traffic safety theory
and research methods. Netherlands, April.
Asian Development Bank (ADB). 1997. Road safety guidelines for Asian and Pacific
Region. Regional Initiatives in Road Safety, Asian Development Bank.
Babtie Ross Silcock and TRL Limited. 2003. Guidelines for estimating the cost road
crashes in developing countries. Final Report, Department for International Development
Project R7780, Transport Research Laboratory, May.
Barrs, P., G. Smith, S. Baker, and D. Mohan. 1998. Injury prevention: An international
perspective. Oxford University Press.
Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH). 2003. Cost estimation and update
handbook. Sixth Road Project. Capacity Building component. C08 Road Infrastructure
Safety Project, DPWH.
Dessie, T.C. Lawson. 1991. The occurrence and driver characteristics associated with
motor vehicle injuries in Addis, Ababa, Ethiopia. Journal of Tropical Medicine Hygiene
94:395-400.
7: ROAD SAFETY AND TRAFFIC ACCIDENT ANALYSIS
Garber, Nicholas J., and Lester A. Hoel. 1999. Traffic and highway engineering. Second
ed. brooks/Cole Publishing Co,
International Road Traffic and Accident Database (IRTAD). 1998. Special report,
definitions and data availability. OECD-RTR Road Transport research Programme.
Jacobs, G. 1995. Costing road accidents in developing countries. Overseas Road Note 10.
Crowthorne, Berkshire: Transport Research Laboratory.
Jacobs G., A. Aeron-Thomas, A. Astrop. 2000. Estimating global road fatalities. TRL
Report 445, Transport Research Laboratory, Crowthorne, Berkshire.
Lamm, Ruediger, Basil Psarianos, and Theodor Mailaender. 1999. Highway design and
traffic safety engineering handbook. McGraw-Hill.
Melhuish, C. 2001. The first GRSP ASEAN Seminar, March, Tokyo.
National Epidemiology Center (NEC). 1998. Philippine health statistics. NEC, Department
of Health Philippines.
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. 1981. Methods for evaluating
road safely measures. OECD Road Research Group Report, June.
Pline, J. L., ed, 1992. Traffic engineering handbook. Fourth Ed. Washignton, D.C.: Insitiute
of Transportation Engineers and Prentice Hall Inc.
Robertson, H. Douglas, ed. 2000. Manual for transportation engineering studies.
Washington, D.C.: Institute of Transportation Engineers and Prentice-Hall Inc.
Sigua, R. 2000. The state of road safety in the Philippines. Journal on Public Policy.
Quezon City: UP Center for Integrative and Development Studies and the University of
the Philippines Press.
Tanner, J.C. 1956. Accidents before and after the provision or removal of automatic traffic
signals. RRL Note. No. 2887.
Traffic Management Group (TMG). 2002. Report of traffic accident statistics.
Trinca, G. W., Johnston, I., B. J. Campbell, F.A. Haight, P. Knight, M. Mackay, A. J.
McLean, and E. Petrucelli. 1988. Reducing traffic injury: A global challenge. Melbourne:
Royal Australasian College og Surgeons.
Vibal, T. 2003. Traffic accident analysis through hospital records. Master’s thesis, College
of Engineering, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
8
INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND
FORECASTING
8.1 INTRODUCTION
This chapter introduces the classic four-step forecasting model which was developed more
than sixty years ago in the United States. The method has deficiencies, and other new ones have
been developed over the past ten years. However, the method is still widely used as a tool over
analyzing travel demand and estimating future traffic flow. Most commercially available software
for forecasting travel demand are still largely based on this four-step model. It provides a tool for
traffic engineers and planners to analyze travel demand and traffic situation in a given study area.
Prior to the application of the four-step model, it is always necessary to obtain as much
information as possible on the socioeconomic indicators of the area under study, such as
population, income distribution, car ownership, etc. Using statistical tools, these socioeconomic
variables may be forecasted within the planning horizon, which may vary from twenty to fifty
years.
Once the study are is defined, it is divided into a number of zones normally defined by
political or administrative boundaries. These are called internal zones. Depending on the coverage
of the study, a zone may correspond to one barangay, town, or city. The study may also consider
some zones outside the study area, which may greatly affect the trip patterns, These are called
external zones. For example, If Metro Manila is taken as a study area, there is a need to consider
the outlying areas of Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, and Bulacan, among others.
For a more systematic analysis and easier presentation, an origin-destination (OD) table is
generally prepared. The origin-destination table simply shows the trips from one zone to another
within a given study area. The terms are defined in reference to figure 8.2.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
This is also referred to as trip generation. It is obtained by summing up all the entries in a
given row i.
The number of trips D j attracted to zone j is given by
𝑛𝑛
𝑛𝑛 𝑛𝑛
Sometimes the present trip production is estimated first before the trip generation and trip
attraction are analyzed. Trip production is estimated as follows:
𝑇𝑇 = 𝑓𝑓(𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑒 ′ 𝑠𝑠_𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎, 𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡𝑡_𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝, … ) (8.4)
The independent variables inside the parenthesis must be selected to satisfy the following
requirements:
a. Predictability
Trips per day at cities in the world are fairly stable, which is about 2.5. Manila is about
2.3 trips per day while Davao City is about 2.4 trips per day.
A number of methods are available for estimating trip generation and attraction. The more
commonly used ones may fall under any of the following:
a. Growth rate method
b. Category analysis
c. Regression model
Number of cars/households
Family Size 1 2
No. of households No. of trips No. of households No. of trips
1 100 200 50 150
2 200 500 100 350
3 150 450 50 200
More than 3 50 200 10 70
From these data, the average trip generation rate per category can be estimated by dividing
the number of trips by the number of households in each category.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
Number of cars/households
Family size
1 2
1 2.0 3.0
2 2.5 3.5
3 3.0 4.0
More than 3 5.0 7.0
These trip generation rates are then applied to the forecasted number of households per
category to obtain the future trip generation.
Example 8.1
The city of Vigan had the following land use activity statistics during morning peak hour
in 2000. Estimate the total trip generation during that period.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
Solution:
Estimated person trips can be computed by multiplying column a with column b.
The table summarized the total trip generation. Residential units produce about 20,000
person trips in the morning. Trip attraction to various establishments is also obtained by
considering all person trips coming in during the morning peak hour. It must be noted that total
trip attraction does not equal total trip production because there are trips coming from outside the
city of Vigan.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
In the Metro Manila Urban Transportation Integration Study (ALMEC Corp 1999), the
following trip generation and attraction models are utilized:
𝑛𝑛
Again, the objective of this model is to determine from which zones these trip generations
(O i ) are generated and to which zones these trip attarctions (D j ) are bound.
A number of models have been developed in the past to distribute trips and these are
classified as follows:
a. Present pattern method
b. Model method
c. Detroit method
The principle behind this method is that trip distribution is proportional to growth rate of
trip generation
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
and that trip distribution is proportional to the relative growth rate of trip attraction to trip
production
d. Fratar method
This is the most commonly used present pattern method.
Some of the disadvantages of the present pattern method are the following:
A. Complete OD matrix is required.
B. Change of land use is not considered; where the present trip distribution is zero, future
is also zero.
C. If there is error in current OD matrix, the error is expanded with the same rate.
Some of the merits cited for the gravity models are as follows:
a. Trip resistance is considered
b. Structure of model is easy to understand.
c. Complete OD matrix is not necessarily required.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
Considering several competing modes, the mode that will have the least generalized cost
will be chosen.
Supposing that there are two modes, with corresponding generalized costs:
The shares of trip makers likely to use modes 1 and 2 are shown by the areas of the time
value distribution in figure 8.4
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
One disadvantage of the generalized cost method is the difficulty in determining the
distribution of time value. It is also difficult to treat more than two modes.
Example 8.2
A calibrated utility function for travel in a medium-sized city by car, bus, and light rail is
U = a -0.02X 1 – 0.05X 2
Where X 1 is the cost of travel in pesos and X 2 is the travel time (min). Calculate the modal
split for the given values:
Mode A X1 X2
Car -0.3 30 25
Bus -0.38 8 38
Light rail -0.32 15 30
If a parking fee of P30 per trip is imposed, what would be the split to the other two modes?
Solution:
Similarly, P bus and P light rail can be obtained using the same formula. The
calculations are summarized in the table below. The current modal share shows that car and light
rail have almost the same share.
Mode U eu P %
Car -2.15 0.1164 0.3598 36
Bus -2.44 0.0871 0.2692 27
Light rail -2.12 0.1200 0.3708 37
Total 0.3236 1.00 100
Now, when a parking fee of P30 is imposed to each traveller, the utility of car will be
reduced as follows:
U c = -0.3 – 0.2(6) – 0.05(25) = -2.75
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
The share of car is greatly reduced from 36 percent to 24 percent, an overall reduction of
33 percent. This results in car users shifting to bus and rail, which now have an increased share of
32 percent and 44 percent, respectively.
Given a road network, car drivers will normally use the route or routes through which they
will reach their destination in the least time or distance. The same assumption is used to assign
trips or vehicles in the four-step model. The road network is usually drawn using nodes and links
as shown in figure 8.5. The zone centroids are represented by nodes, and the roads connecting the
zones are presented by links.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
a. First, label the staring node with a value equal to 0. This label is permanent as this will
not be changed.
b. Consider each node adjacent to this node and give them temporary labels. (Only those
without permanent labels are considered.)
i. If a node is unlabelled, it is given a label equal to the weight of the link plus the
value of the previously labelled node.
ii. If a node is labelled, calculate the value of the label and, if this is less than the
current value, then exchange its value with the smaller one; otherwise, leave the
label unchanged.
c. Choose the node with the smallest temporary label and make the label permanent.
d. Repeat steps b and c until the final node has been given a permanent label. The shortest
path has a length given by its permanent value.
Example 8.3
Consider the road network shown in figure 8.6(A). The nodes are labelled a to k. The links
have values in travel time in minutes. Determine the shortest path (least travel time) from a to k
using Dijsktra’s algoritm.
Solution:
Node a is given a permanent label with value equal to 0. From a, adjacent nodes are
temporarily labelled as shown in (B). With 2 as the smallest, node b is permanently labelled as
shown in (C). From node b, adjacent nodes are temporarily labelled. Again the node with the
smallest value is chose. Note that either node c or e may be chosen because they both have values
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
equal to 3. Node c is chosen in this case, and unlabelled nodes adjacent to it are labelled temporarily
as shown in (D). The steps are repeated. It will be noted in (E) that the value 13 is replaced by a
smaller value, which is 11.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
It takes steps (A) to (L) to label all the nodes completely. Finally node k is labelled
permanently. The shortest path from node a to k follows the route a-e-g-j-k with a total travel time
of 23 minutes.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
All-or-nothing assignment
Considering one OD pair, all trips are assigned to the shortest path from point of origin to
point of destination. After these trips are loaded into the network, the level of service of the roads
in the network may change. The basic steps in conducting an all-or-nothing assignment are as
follows:
a. Find the minimum path between zones i and j.
b. Assign all trips T iy the minimum path.
c. Repeat steps 1 and 2 for all OD pairs.
Example 8.4
Suppose that 100 trips are to be distributed among 4 routes with the following travel times.
Assign these trips using constant assignment ratio.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
Route T, hrs
1 1.0
2 1.25
3 1.5
4 2.0
The inverse of time for each route is computed. This serves as the level of service of the
route. The assigned trips to each route are obtained in proportion to this LOS. Higher values would
have larger share of assigned trips. The result of assignment is shown in the table below.
Route I/T Assigned trips
1 1.00 33.71
2 0.8 26.97
3 0.67 22.47
4 0.50 16.85
Total 2.97 100.00
Incremental assignment
This method considers the influence of previously assigned trips. It is based on the
Wardrop’s Princicple, which states that out of several routes available between zones i and j, the
routes that are used have equal level of service. The routes that are not used have lower LOS.
Consider the trips originating from one zone to be assigned. The incremental assignment
method takes the following steps:
a. Assign 1/n of the trips to route (by using all-or-nothing assignment or constant
assignment ratio).
b. Calculate the new level of service for the state that 1/n trips are already assigned.
c. Assign next 1/n trips.
d. Repeat until all trips are assigned.
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
PROBLEMS
1. Use gravity model (Voohees type) to distribute the person trips given below. Refine the
method using Fratar iteration scheme. (Stop iteration when row and column are 1 ±0.05.)
2. A multinomial logit mode choice model is calibrated for 10,000 persons. The resulting
utility function is given below:
For a particular OD pair, three modes are available, with characteristics as follows:
Mode Out-of-pocket cost, Travel time,min Ave. occupancy
pesos persons/veh
Car 50 30 2
Aircon bus 10 45 40
Jeepney 5 50 14
3. Assign the vehicle trips in the given network below using all-or-nothing assignment. Use
Dijkstra’s algorithm to find minimum paths.
5. Assign the given vehicle trips (veh.hr) using incremental method (n = 3).
6. Assign the peak hour vehicular trips shown on the given road network. Use all-or-nothing
assignment for the first 1/n trips, then use incremental method with capacity-restraint for
the succeeding assignments (n = 2).
b. Growth Factors:
d. Cost of travel (pesos) and travel time in minutes. Use for modal choice only.
(Assume data for 1 to 2 are the same for 2 to 1, etc.)
8: INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
Perform:
i. trip distribution using Fratar method (make 1 iteration only, i.e., get one set of
row and column factors)
ii. modal split using logit model
iii. trip assignment of cars only using all-or-nothing assignment
(Average veh, occupancy: car – 1.5 persons; Jeepney = 14.0 persons)
REFERENCES
9
INTRODUCTION TO INTELLIGENT
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
9.1 INTRODUCTION
Based on the experience of several countries that have earlier deployed ITS, some of the
estimated benefits are the following (US DOT 1998):
a. Advanced traffic surveillance and signal control systems have resulted in travel time
reduction ranging from 8 percent to 25 percent.
b. Electronic fare payment technologies for transit systems have resulted in increased
revenues 3-30 percent due to fewer evasions.
c. Incident management programs can reduce delay associated with congestion caused by
incidents by 10-45 percent.
9: INTRODUCTION TO INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
Initial assessment
9: INTRODUCTION TO INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
There is a tendency to assume that once a new traffic control system replaces an older one,
traffic flow will automatically improve – speeds will increase quieting will be less, traffic will be
orderly, etc. However, there are a number of factors external to the system that may severely affect
the traffic flow. In a “before-and-after” study conducted to evaluate the system, it was observed
that most of the unwanted practices noted during the before case were still prevalent during the
after case (UP NCTSFI 2001). These include
• uncontrolled loading and unloading of passengers by PUVs;
• illegal parking;
• vendors occupying sidewalks (even carriageway), leaving pedestrians no option but to use
the road;
• commuters on the road waiting for rides; and
• laxity in traffic enforcement.
These practices severely hinder the flow of traffic along some thoroughfares considered in
the study – Taft Ave., Mabini St., and Del Pilar St. There is no way that SCATS alone can solve
the traffic problems along these roads. A concerned effort by concerned authorities is therefore
necessary to eliminate these practices. Otherwise, the government’s effort to alleviate congestion
through the use of advanced technologies will be worthless.
9: INTRODUCTION TO INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
Nevertheless, the SCATS has been found to manage traffic better by preventing extreme
peaing (or concentration) of the traffic volumes, thus allowing the available capacities to be used
more optimally. With regard to queuing, twenty-five intersections along four corridors (i.e., Taft
Avenue, Roxas Boulevard, Mabini St., and Del Pilar St.) were evaluated before and after the
installation and operation of the SCATS traffic signal system. An overall reduction of 30.39
percent was estimated four queue lengths during the morning peak. Similarly, an overall reduction
of 35.98 percent was estimated for afternoon peek queues. These reduction clearly indicates an
improvement due to the installation and operation of SCATS.
b. Cash collection
• Uses magnetic striped card which is encoded by the toll teller and handed to the
patron at entry booth,
• Card is electronically “read” at the exit booth.
• Toll teller classifies the vehicle/AVC system makes its own classification
independently.
• Toll is computed by the computer and displayed to the toll teller and the patron.
• A motorist receipt is generated.
Initial assessment
The existing system lacks some of the features of a full-blown ETC system found in other
countries. There is no monitoring system using cameras or automatic vehicle violation processing
system. To cut cost, a simplified system was devised so that full control is done within the
jurisdiction of the expressway. The existing ETC system requires motorists to slow down or to
come to a full stop for checking. A horizontal barrier lifts when a green light is given. At times,
when traffic becomes heavy, a bumper-to-bumper situation can cause the barrier to rise and fall
too often. This can confuse drivers who follow light and barrier. This technical flaw needs to be
addressed since in 2001, at least 200 barriers were destroyed every month, not to mention damages
to vehicles. Minimum spacing or headway between vehicles should be enforced. A simple method
is to paint two lines before the toll gates for checking the spacing.
Based on an initial study of the operation of the tollway, the dedicated E-PASS lane has an
average tollbooth transaction time of 1.15 seconds per vehicle compared to 15.0 seconds per
vehicles for the manual scheme (cash coupons), and 5.9 seconds per vehicles for mixed-mode
lanes (Padayhag and Sigua 2001). Table 9.1 shows the lane usage and service rates at Nichols A
tollgate.
9: INTRODUCTION TO INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
Table 9.2 shows he number of vehicles using the dedicated E-PASS lanes at Nichols and
Bicutan during peak hours. At Nichols A, 13.6 percent of the vehicles using the tollgate are E-
PASS users.
a. Morning peak (7:30 – 10:30 AM)
The SLEX ETC system is a distance-based system. Overall, the trip demand on the use of
the expressway is basically the same. It is worth looking at the system as time-based, with higher
fees collected or charged during peak hours. The concept of time-based fee charging is discussed
in the next section.
After major rehabilitation of the North Luzon Expressway (NLEX), the Manila North
Luzon Tollways Corporation began full operation of ETC in early 2005. (See figure 9.6) Dubbed
EC-Tag, the ETC and NLEX operates at the same frequency (DSRC 5.8 Ghz) similar to SLEX.
Among the features of the new NEX are computerized toll collection system; dedicated lane for
transponder and swipe card system for faster transactions; reliable emergency and roadside
services; including smart emergency phone boxes; and twenty-four-hour emergency assistance
consisting of telephone operators, traffic patrol teams, first air emergency trucks and tow trucks.
9: INTRODUCTION TO INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
Table 9.3 shows a comparison of the SLEX and the NLEX ETC systems. The estimated
percentage of ETC users was for the year 2006.
Koshi’s assessment of the traffic congestion in Manila, Bangkok, and Jakarta made him
conclude that the only effective method available in Asian cities is “road pricing” (Koshi 1996).
Fees have to be set unrealistically high to achieve a meaningful reduction in overall demand. Its
primary objective should be to encourage drivers to reconsider their time of departure and time of
return. As a secondary benefit, the revenue generated from it can be used for building public transit
networks such as bus and rail transit systems. However, he also stressed that unless adequate
transportation infrastructure is built, the problem will not be solved no matter what amount of time
or money is present on information processing and communication. The first priority, therefore, is
to build rail transit system.
might be found. Nevertheless, increases in traffic or alternative routes might become an almost
permanent condition in the near future. Heavy traffic might therefore be diverted into residential
neighbourhoods or onto other socially undesirable routes.
An important question is: How high should the new road charges be? These should be high
enough to divert the minimum number of vehicles needed to achieve desired average speeds, but
not so high that surrounding roadways become clogged because so many vehicles have had to be
diverted. Choosing the right tools will therefore be a matter of trial-and-error experimenting on
each road. Coping with the traffic that shifts to alternative routes that do not charge tolls poses a
challenge.
i. The effect of reducing traffic congestion is significant in and around Makati (5-
10 percent).
ii. Potential revenue estimated at US$ 61 million per year.
d. Parking pricing
Parking pricing within the CBD of Makati City was assumed. A parking pricing
charge of about US$ 1 per parking event was applied.
i. Effect on alleviation minimal.
ii. Potential revenue about US$ 15 million per year.
a. Institution
Success ITS deployment requires a very high level of cooperation between national
and local agencies on the one hand, and law enforcement and emergency response agencies
on the other. Since these agencies do not normally work closely together, significant turf
and organizational culture problems may arise. Traditional transportation agency leaders
also suffer from inadequate knowledge of ITS technologies and their potential benefits.
b. Infrastructure
Successful ITS deployment and operations require basic infrastructure elements
like a well-developed communications backbone and uninterrupted power supply.
9: INTRODUCTION TO INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
c. Technology
Understanding the role of ITS technologies is critical to its success. ITS planning
and design should be based on “needs-based assessments”, not just on technology push.
d. Finance/budget
Although IS deployments cost significantly less than new road construction, they
involve allocation of funds to be spent on systems unfamiliar to transport authorities, or
which have not been deployed widely elsewhere. This creates a situation of inadequate
support for ITS projects, especially, since several transport authorities cannot even afford
basic highway maintenance and rehabilitation.
A truly working ITS scheme, such as Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) or ETC, is one that
has the right objectives, delivers its predicted benefits, and is acceptable to the ones paying for it.
This means that when an ITS scheme is successful, the ones paying for it have to enjoy some of
its benefits.
Something that works in Singapore may not work in Manila. Cultures differ greatly.
Charging for something that used to be free may not be a good approach. A number of ITS schemes
such as ERP will never succeed as long as the victims of the current problems feel they have to
pay for becoming a victim in the solution.
There is already a growing criticism that ITS favors the rich. Expected beneficiaries of ITS
should not be only car users. Metro Manila is a good example when it comes to public transport
patronage. About 70 percent of trip makers rely on public transport. It should be the policy of the
government that revenues from ITS schemes (ETC or ERP) be earmarked for transportation
infrastructure development, such as mass transit systems, instead of simply going to general funds.
Unless ITS is geared toward mass transportation system, it is likely to fail in developing countries
where majority of trip makers rely on public transport for mobility.
9: INTRODUCTION TO INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
9.6 CONCLUSION
ITS should complement the government’s plans and programs to build more urban
expressways and urban rail networks. Preparations for planning and deployment of ITS – such as
full-blown ETC along expressways or major arterials. ERP for CBDs and, automation at
LRT/MRT stations – should begin now. Urgent tasks to be done are the following:
• Creation of an official organization to look at ITS priorities.
• Development of ITS master plan for Metro Manila. Priority should be given to mass
transport-related ITS application. There is also the growing concern on safety and
environment issues.
• Comprehensive analysis of the first examples/initiatives of ITS deployment in Metro
Manila – SCATS signal System and Skyway’s ETC – their effectiveness, and what went
wrong. Is SCATS a failure due to lack of complementing traffic management measures?
Do ETC’s partial implementation and cost-cutting measures make the system ineffective?
Is full implementation an absolute condition?
• Making it known that ITS is not only for developed countries. ITS seems to be so
sophisticated/high-tech that it becomes incomprehensible to traditional politicians. In a
developing country, there is a strong tendency to rely heavily on manual methods due to
cheap labor. This is also true on the Philippines where manual method is thought to be
more effective than automatic means.
• As government is desperately looking for effective solutions, a lot of convincing is needed
for the decision makers to believe that ITS is not simply a “technology push” but a viable
solution to Metro Manila’s congestion problem.
REFERENCES
ALMEC Corporation. 1999. Metro Manila urban transportation integration studies
(MMUTIS). Project final report, December.
Highway Industry Development Organization (HIDO). 2000. Intelligent transport systems.
ITS handbook 2000-2001. Japan.
Koshi. M. 1996. Traffic congestion in Asian cities: The wheel extended. A Toyota
Quarterly Review, no. 95.
9: INTRODUCTION TO INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM
Padayhag. G. U. and R.G. Sigua 2001. Evaluation of electronic toll collection (ETC)
system along South Luzon Expressway and Manila Skyway. 9th Annual conference,
Transportation Science Society of the Philippines, Manila. July.
University of the Philippines National center for Transportation Studies Foundation Inc.
(UP NCTSFI). 2001. Metro Manila SMART Traffic Signaling Project (SCATS) before and
after study final report, June.
US Department of Transportation, 1998. ITS Joint Program, ITS for Metropolitan Areas.
GLOSSARY OF TERMS
Dr. Ricardo G. Sigua is a professor at the College of Engineering of the University of the
graduate programs of the Civil Engineering Department. He obtained his Bachelor of Science in
Civil Engineering degree from the same university in 1978. He finished his master’s and doctor’s
degrees from the University of Tokyo in 1984 and 1991, respectively. Professor Sigua served as
director of the UP National Center for Transportation Studies for two terms (1996-1999 and
Philippine Institute of Civil Engineers (PICE). He has been the Philippines’ lone Country