Professional Documents
Culture Documents
ECO – 2201
Instructor – Piyali Banerjee
Monsoon, 2023
Chapter 1: The Demand Side
1
This chapter focuses on the demand side of macroeconomics. Typically, this
chapter discusses the spending decisions of the economy (aggregate demand)
and how they influence the level of economic activity. At the end of this
chapter, you will learn:
Question: In late 2000s, households and firms across the world cut back their
spending, and the global economy went into a recession. Why?
• Housing market boom during the early and mid-2000s in the U.S.
economy.
• More availability of housing loans from banks without proper mortgage
securities.
• Loan default by some house owners.
• Bankruptcy ⇒ less availability of money in the economy ⇒ less spending
on goods and services by households ⇒ more unsold goods ⇒ less
output is produced ⇒ recession.
2
Real GDP Growth Rate in India from 1980 to 2028
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
RGDP Growth Rate
4.00
2.00
0.00
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
-2.00
-4.00
-6.00
-8.00
Year
4
RGDP Growth Rate
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
-2
-4
Year
3
Real GDP Rate from 1980 to 2028
12
10
6
RGDP Growth Rate
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
-2
-4
-6
-8
Year
India United States Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies World
Example:
Asset Liability
Reserves (20%) – Rs. 20,000 Deposits – Rs. 60,000
Loans (70%) – Rs. 70,000 Debt – Rs. 30,000
Securities (10%) – Rs. 10,000 Bank owner’s capital/ Shareholder’s
equity – Rs. 10,000
Total – Rs. 100,000 Total – Rs. 100,000
Now bank gets return = Rs. 70,000 – (70,000 × 0.20) = Rs. 56,000
4
New Balance Sheet of a Simple Bank
Asset Liability
Reserve (20%) – Rs. 20,000 Deposit – Rs. 60,000
Loans (70%) – Rs. 56,000 Debt – Rs. 26,000
Securities (10%) – Rs. 10,000 Bank owner’s capital/ Shareholder’s
equity – Rs. 0
Total – Rs. 86,000 Total – Rs. 86,000
For loan default, the total availability of money in the economy goes down.
Moreover, shareholders of the bank get back nothing. Even the bank is unable
to pay back some of its debt holders and the bank defaults. Economy’s
investment falls, production falls and unemployment rises ⇒ recession.
5
More AD ⇒ more output produced in the economy ⇒
unemployment ↓ ⇒ aggregate income of the economy ↑ ⇒ more
spending on goods and services ⇒ aggregate price level of the
country ↑ (inflation).
6
Recall the concept of Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
7
a. Exports: the value of goods & services sold to other countries
b. Imports: the value of goods & services purchased from other
countries
Hence, (X – M) equals net spending from abroad on our goods & services.
• The miller turns the wheat into flour and sells it to a baker for $3.00.
• The baker uses the flour to make a loaf of bread and sells it to an
engineer for $6.00.
Answer: Each person’s value added (VA) equals the value of what he/she
produced minus the value of the intermediate inputs he/she started with.
Farmer’s VA = $1
Miller’s VA = $2
Baker’s VA = $3
GDP = $6
8
distributes to the wholesale sore at Rs. 500. The wholesale store sells the
orange juice to the retail store for Rs. 800. Compute the GDP.
3. Income Method –
𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺 = 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 + 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑡𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑒 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐
These two quantities are equal because all spending that is channeled to firms
to pay for purchases of domestically produced final goods and services is
revenue for firms. Those revenues must be paid out by firms to their factors
of production in the form of wages, profit, interest, and rent.
Question: Why does the income and expenditure method give the same GDP
when households save?
Rule 2: Used goods – The sale of used goods is not included as a part of GDP.
e.g. If I pay Rs.30,000 for a used computer for my business, then I’m
doing 30,000 of investment, but the person who sold it to me is doing
30,000 of disinvestment, so there is no net impact on aggregate
investment and GDP.
9
she is no longer paying rent, she is still consuming the same housing
services as before.
• In computing GDP, (the services category of) consumption includes the
imputed rental value of owner-occupied housing.
• When firms sell fewer units than planned, the unsold units go into
inventory and are counted as inventory investment.
• This explains why “output = expenditure”—the value of unsold output
is counted under inventory investment, just as if the firm “purchased”
its own output.
Note: Remember, the definition of investment is goods bought for future use.
With inventory investment that future use is to give the firm the ability in the
future to sell more than its output.
Note: Measurement error in computing GDP occurs due to tax evasion or existence
of black market. Hence, expenditure method and income method give different
numbers of GDP.
10
• 𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺: 𝑦𝑦 𝐷𝐷 = 𝐶𝐶 + 𝐼𝐼 + 𝐺𝐺
• The IS-curve is investment-savings curve that represents the aggregate
demand.
• Definition of IS-curve: The IS-curve shows combinations of the real
interest rate (r) and output (y) under goods market equilibrium.
6000.000
USD in Billion
6000.000
4000.000
4000.000
2000.000
2000.000
0.000 0.000
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
Year Year
Investment of U.S
3000.000
2500.000
USD in Billion
2000.000
1500.000
1000.000
500.000
0.000
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
Year
11
Question: Investment is more volatile than consumption, government
spending and GDP itself. Why?
Fact: Investment is negatively related with the real interest rate. Government
and the policy makers alter the real interest rate to modify the investment in
order to prevent the fluctuations in aggregate demand (AD) through the goods
market equilibrium and the IS-curve.
Assumptions:
1. Firms are willing to meet higher demand for their goods and services.
2. Workers are willing to take extra job or work for extra hours that are offered.
(1) + (2) ⇒ Supply of output adjusts to meet the demand for goods, services
and labors.
12
𝑦𝑦 = 𝑐𝑐0 + 𝑐𝑐1 (1 − 𝑡𝑡)𝑦𝑦 + 𝐼𝐼 + 𝐺𝐺 ← (2) ← 𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾𝐾 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒
𝒄𝒄𝟎𝟎 +𝑰𝑰+𝑮𝑮
𝑖𝑖. 𝑒𝑒. 𝒚𝒚 = ← (3) ← 𝑇𝑇ℎ𝑒𝑒 𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜.
𝟏𝟏− 𝒄𝒄𝟏𝟏 (𝟏𝟏−𝒕𝒕)
13
• The multiplier is greater than 1 since 0 ≤ 𝑐𝑐1 ≤ 1 and 0 ≤ 𝑡𝑡 ≤ 1.
14
Subtracting and adding tax (T) in the above equation
{𝑦𝑦 − 𝑐𝑐0 − 𝑐𝑐1 (1 − 𝑡𝑡)𝑦𝑦 − 𝑇𝑇} + {𝑇𝑇 − 𝐺𝐺} = 𝐼𝐼
𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 = 𝐼𝐼 ⇒ 𝑺𝑺 = 𝑰𝑰
1
𝑦𝑦 = [𝑐𝑐 + (𝑎𝑎0 − 𝑎𝑎1 𝑟𝑟) + 𝐺𝐺]
1 − 𝑐𝑐1 (1 − 𝑡𝑡) 0
15
In the r-y space, plot the Investment
function.
• IS curve slope
Changes with multiplier, k and hence c1 and 𝑡𝑡.
16
When autonomous consumption c0 , autonomous investment a0 ,
or government spending G change.
Exercise 3:
17