Daily Bulletin

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS |

ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | O I L |

Research Department
5/21/2014

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Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES

GLOBAL MARKETS
Asian shares mostly ended higher on Tuesday, with Japan's Nikkei share average rose on Tuesday, snapping a four-day losing streak supported
by a slightly weakening yen, while Yahoo Japan Corp soared after dropping its plan to buy mobile network operator eAccess Ltd from SoftBank
Corp.
European shares inched lower on Tuesday, held back by Vodafone after the world's second-largest mobile network operator reported 6.6 billion
pounds ($11 billion) in impairment costs.
Global stock indexes fell on Tuesday after disappointing earnings and forecasts, while the dollar fell for a fifth straight session against the yen.
U.S. Treasuries yields dipped after New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said the central bank will likely be slow in raising interest
rates.
A persistent fall in U.S. Treasury yields, reflecting uncertainty about global economic growth, has undermined the dollar.
The greenback could fall further against the yen if the Bank of Japan does not expand its asset purchase program.
GLOBAL ECONOMIES
China could miss its target for trade growth for a third consecutive year in 2014 as higher labor costs and weaker global demand hurt what has
been one of the economy's main engines, a senior commerce ministry official said on Tuesday.
Australia's central bank said the current low interest rate environment was having a desired effect on the economy and would be appropriate
for some time yet.
British inflation rose in April for the first time in 10 months, but as the increase was partly due to a late Easter holiday, which pushed up
transport costs, it was unlikely to alter interest rate expectations.
The Federal Reserve's super-easy policies, if pursued for too long, could have adverse consequences in the long run, two top Fed officials said on
Monday, although the biggest risk is not runaway inflation.

GLOBAL MARKETS
Asia – Asian shares mostly ended higher on Tuesday, with Japan's
Nikkei share average rose on Tuesday, snapping a four-day losing streak
supported by a slightly weakening yen, while Yahoo Japan Corp soared
after dropping its plan to buy mobile network operator eAccess Ltd
from SoftBank Corp.
Hong Kong's benchmark index rose to a five-week closing high on
Tuesday, helped by China Mobile after a broker upgrade pushed shares
of the telecom giant to their highest since January. The Hang Seng Index
ended up 0.6 percent at 22,834.68 points, its highest close since April
14.
China shares lingered at three-week lows on Tuesday, as continued
losses in the beverage sector offset most gains from financial and
energy counters.
While, Seoul's main stock exchange, the Korea Composite Stock Price
Index (KOSPI) closed down 0.2 percent at 2,011.26 points on selling by
local institutions, but foreign investors were net buyers for a sixth
consecutive session (Source Reuters, Research – @analispasar)
Europe – European shares inched lower on Tuesday, held back by
Vodafone after the world's second-largest mobile network operator
reported 6.6 billion pounds ($11 billion) in impairment costs.
Vodafone shed 5.5 percent, making it the biggest faller on the
FTSEurofirst 300, after writing down the value of some of its European
businesses citing fierce competition and regulatory changes in Europe.
The FTSEurofirst 300 index, which last week hit a six-year high of
1,372.81, closed down 0.1 percent at 1,357.00 points.
Equity markets have been buoyed in recent weeks by a burst of
dealmaking and bids, particularly in the healthcare sector, although
lofty valuations are deterring some investors from putting more money
to work in equities.
The STOXX Europe 600 is trading on a 12-month forward price/earning
ratio of 14.3 times, against its 10-year average of 11.8 times, Thomson
Reuters Datastream shows.
US & Global Markets – Global stock indexes fell on Tuesday after
disappointing earnings and forecasts, while the dollar fell for a fifth
straight session against the yen.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 137.55 points or
0.83 percent, to 16,374.31, the S&P 500 lost 12.25 points or 0.65
percent, to 1,872.83 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 28.92 points
or 0.7 percent, to 4,096.89.
U.S. Treasuries yields dipped after New York Federal Reserve President
William Dudley said the central bank will likely be slow in raising
interest rates.
A persistent fall in U.S. Treasury yields, reflecting uncertainty about
global economic growth, has undermined the dollar.
Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note prices were up 6/32 to yield
2.512 percent, from 2.536 percent late Monday The greenback could
fall further against the yen if the Bank of Japan does not expand its
asset purchase program.
The dollar fell 0.2 percent to 101.29 yen. The pair also traded below its
200-day moving average - a key technical gauge - for a second straight
day.
Brent crude rose 32 cents to settle at $109.69 a barrel, supported by
instability in Libya, while U.S. crude futures slipped 17 cents to settle at
$102.44.
Source Reuters, Research – @nikolasprasetia)

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 2
Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014
GLOBAL ECONOMIES
China – China could miss its target for trade growth for a third
consecutive year in 2014 as higher labor costs and weaker global
demand hurt what has been one of the economy's main engines, a
senior commerce ministry official said on Tuesday.
The government has a target of 7.5 percent growth in exports and
imports this year. After a soft start to 2014, the ministry says combined
exports and imports need to grow by an average annual rate of 11.3
percent each month from May to December.
"The foreign trade situation is complex and grim this year. It's a very
arduous task to achieve the annual target of 7.5 percent," Zhang Ji,
head of foreign trade department at the commerce ministry, told a
news conference.
"The economic recovery of developed countries remains slow while
growth of emerging economies is weakening,” Zhang said.
China missed its trade growth targets of 8 percent in 2013 and 10
percent in 2012.
Annual economic growth slowed to an 18-month low of 7.4 percent in
the first quarter, raising the risk that China could miss its economic
growth target -- set at 7.5 percent in 2014 -- for the first time in 15
years.
Last week, the government announced a raft of measures to support
the wobbly trade sector, including giving more tax breaks, credit
insurance and currency hedging options to its exporters.
Zhang said the ministry has set up a special task force to implement the
measures, with most to be done in May and June.
China's exports and imports returned to slight growth in April as orders
to the United States and European Union surged, offering some positive
signals for the world's second-largest economy.
Analysts said the trade picture was better in April than the data
suggested, as export figures last year had been inflated by fake invoices
before a mid-year crackdown by authorities.
China's foreign trade grew an annual average 15.9 percent between
1978 and 2013, accounting for a fifth of economic growth in recent
years and creating millions of jobs, Zhang said, adding the sector
directly employs more than 100 million people.
Zhang said a period of high growth for China's trade sector had ended
as higher costs reduce its competitiveness and as the United States and
Europe try to boost their manufacturing and export sectors.
The labour costs of Chinese exporters in coastal areas, the main export
hubs, are two to threes times those in India, Vietnam and Cambodia, he
said.
Zhang also said recent violence against Chinese firms in Vietnam could
hurt bilateral trade.
Australia – Australia's central bank said the current low interest rate
environment was having a desired effect on the economy and would be
appropriate for some time yet.
In minutes of its May 6 meeting, where the central bank kept its cash
rate at a record low 2.5 percent, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
also said the economy was evolving pretty much as expected.
Board members noted that overall growth in coming quarters was likely
to be below potential given expected slower growth in exports, a fall in
mining investment and planned fiscal consolidation.
"Given this outlook for the economy and the significant degree of
monetary stimulus already in place to support economic activity, the
Board considered that the current accommodative stance of policy was
likely to be appropriate for some time yet," the RBA said.
The central bank has been on the sidelines since August, content that
past cuts were percolating through to home building and consumption,
while boosting household wealth.
GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL
Markets have long given up on more interest rate cuts and have instead
priced in 8 basis points worth of hikes over the next 12 months.
"With growth in activity expected to pick up only gradually, and spare
capacity in the labor market consequently remaining for some time,
growth in domestic costs was forecast to remain contained," the
minutes said.
That should help offset the ongoing effect on prices from a fall in the
Australian dollar over the past year, the RBA said, adding that it saw
inflation consistent with its 2-3 percent target over the next couple of
years.
This was no mention of whether board members were unhappy with
the recent resilience of the local dollar or whether they discussed about
the May 13 government budget.
A week after the RBA’s meeting, Australia's conservative government
unveiled a tough budget packed with spending cuts and new levies that
it says will return its books to surplus within a decade.
U.K. – British inflation rose in April for the first time in 10 months, but
as the increase was partly due to a late Easter holiday, which pushed up
transport costs, it was unlikely to alter interest rate expectations.
Official data also showed that growth in house prices eased in March,
potentially tempering concerns about a bubble brewing in the property
market although some more up-to-date surveys have shown prices
picking up again.
The consumer price index rose more than expected to an annual rate of
1.8 percent in April, from 1.6 percent in March, which had been its
lowest level in more than four years, the Office for National Statistics
ONS said.
It was the first rise in the CPI since June 2013 and above a Reuters poll
forecast for inflation of 1.7 percent in April.
Sterling hit a 16-month high against the euro and rose against the dollar
before giving up much of its gains as market expectations that the Bank
of England will raise interest rates in about a year's time remained
largely intact.
The opposition Labor party jumped on Tuesday's figures, saying they
showed the government's complacency about the "cost of living" crisis
facing many Britons as wage growth has lagged inflation.
Economists however saw little change in price pressures.
"Easter effects aside, the latest release provides little evidence of
significant or broad-based price pressures," said Victoria Clarke, an
economist with bank Investec.
Factory gate inflation in April was weaker than economists' predictions.
Higher airfares linked to Easter and other transport costs helped push
up consumer prices, the ONS said. Easter fell in April this year but in late
March last year.
Offsetting those rises, food price growth was the lowest in eight years
as a mild spring kept vegetable prices down.
Core CPI, which excludes food costs and other items but does include
transport costs, rose 2.0 percent, its strongest rate since September last
year.
House prices - which are an increasing source of concern for the Bank of
England - were up 8.0 percent on the year in March, slowing from a 9.2
percent rise in February, the ONS also said.
Prices in London, however, were up 17 percent on the year, although
that was less than a 17.8 percent increase in February, the biggest
increase since 2007.
BoE Governor Mark Carney said on Sunday that the housing market
posed the biggest risk to Britain's economic recovery.
The finance ministry noted the slower growth in house prices in March
but a spokesman said the Bank of England "should not hesitate" to use
its powers to rein in the market if needed.
Page | 3
Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014
Relatively low consumer inflation in Britain is helping the BoE to keep
interest rates at a record low level of 0.5 percent, even though
economic growth is likely to accelerate to about 3 percent this year.
Before December last year, annual inflation exceeded the central bank's
2 percent target every month since December 2009.
Last week, the BoE said inflation - which has been pushed down in part
by an appreciation of the pound - was likely to remain below its target
in two years' time.
Weaker price growth has been helping wages to recover some of their
value lost since the financial crisis.
Average weekly earnings rose 1.7 percent in the three months to
March, according to the most recent data available, slightly below the
rate of inflation in April.
Most economists expect things to get better albeit slowly.
"It still looks highly probable that earnings growth will increasingly
move above inflation over the coming months thereby lifting
consumers’ purchasing power," said Howard Archer, an economist at
IHS Global, a consultancy.
For today UK are waiting for BOE minutes that will be release this
afternoon.
U.S. – The Federal Reserve's super-easy policies, if pursued for too long,
could have adverse consequences in the long run, two top Fed officials
said on Monday, although the biggest risk is not runaway inflation.
Instead, San Francisco Fed President John Williams told reporters after
participating in a monetary policy conference at the George W. Bush
Institute in Dallas, one major risk is that low rates for too long could
push asset prices too high, or encourage investors to take on too much
risk.
GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL
The Fed is unwinding its massive bond-buying stimulus this year and is
expected to start raising interest rates next year from the near-zero
levels the central bank has maintained since December 2008. As the Fed
normalizes monetary policy, Williams said, it needs to be wary of any
distortions it may have already sown.
"We are not seeing it (excessive risk-taking) now, but it could be that it
could start manifesting itself or materializing later down the road,"
Williams said. "We don’t want the after-effect of this recovery to be an
economy that’s fragile."
Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, speaking at the same conference,
agreed.
"It's very hard to see something coming down the pike," Fisher said,
predicting that there will be future crises. "Markets always overshoot."
He said he worries there is too little volatility in markets, suggesting
investors are too complacent about possible changes in policy and in
the economy.
Williams, a policy centrist, agreed with his hawkish colleague, saying
that while the bond market is struggling to determine if there is a "new
normal" in historically low long-term rates, he wants to see more
volatility as the economy picks up.
"I firmly believe we want to operate in the future, the new normal, or
whatever, in a world where the markets are trying to figure out what
we are going to do based on what happens in the economy," Williams
said. "I do not want us to be locked into a certain path of interest rates
or using forward guidance in the future that's telling people more
about, giving people commitments about what we will do around the
interest rates."
Williams said he believes the Fed should not start raising rates until the
second half of 2015, and predicted rate rises after that will be gradual.
(Source: Reuters - VAF Research-@analispasar, @nikolasprasetia)
Page | 4
Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014

WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR

DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV.
SUN/18-May 08.30 CN China House Price Apr 6.7 N/A % 7.7
MON/19-May 05.45 NZ PPI – Inputs Q1 1.0 0.4 % -0.7
05.45 NZ PPI – Outputs Q1 0.9 0.7 % -0.4
06.30 JP Reuters Tankan DI May 19 N/A IND 25
06.30 JP Machinery Order M/M Mar 19.1 6.0 % -8.8
06.30 JP Machinery Order Y/Y Mar 16.1 4.2 % 10.8
15.30 HK Unemployment Rate Apr 3.1 N/A % 3.1
TUE/20-May 04.00 KR PPI Growth Y/Y Apr -0.3 N/A % -0.5
04.00 KR PPI Growth M/M Apr -0.2 N/A % 0.0
08.30 AU RBA Meeting’s Minutes
13.00 DE Producer Prices M/M Apr -0.1 0.0 % -0.3
13.00 DE Producer Prices Y/Y Apr -0.9 -0.8 % -0.9
15.00 IT Industrial Order M/M SA Mar 1.3 N/A % -3.10 3.2
15.00 IT Industrial Order Y/Y NSA Mar 2.8 N/A % 2.80
15.00 IT Industrial Sales M/M SA Mar 0.3 N/A % -1.50 -1.4
15.00 IT Industrial Sales Y/Y NSA Mar 2.7 N/A % 1.20 1.3
15.30 GB CPI M/M Apr 0.4 0.3 % 0.2
15.30 GB CPI Y/Y Apr 1.8 1.7 % 1.6
15.30 GB RPI M/M Apr 0.4 0.5 % 0.2
15.30 GB RPI Y/Y Apr 2.5 2.6 % 2.5
15.30 GB RPI-X (Retail Prices) M/M Apr 0.4 0.4 % 0.3
15.30 GB RPI-X Y/Y Apr 2.6 2.7 % 2.5
15.30 GB PPI Input Price M/M NSA Apr -1.1 -0.2 % -0.6 -0.4
15.30 GB PPI Input Price Y/Y NSA Apr -5.5 -4.9 % -6.50 -6.3
15.30 GB PPI Output Price M/M NSA Apr 0.0 0.2 % 0.2
15.30 GB PPI Output Price Y/Y NSA Apr 0.6 0.7 % 0.5
15.30 GB PPI Core Output M/M NSA Apr 0.0 0.1 % 0.1 0.2
15.30 GB PPI Core Output Y/Y NSA Apr 1.0 1.0 % 1.0 1.1
19.30 CA Wholesale Trade M/M Mar -0.4 0.4 % 1.1
WED/21-May 06.50 JP Exports Y/Y Apr 4.8 % 1.8
06.50 JP Import Y/Y Apr 0.8 % 18.1
06.50 JP Trade Balance Total Yen Apr -646.0 B -1446.0
05.45 NZ Ext Migration &Visitors Apr N/A % -6.30
05.45 NZ Perm/Long Term Migration Apr N/A IND 3840
07.30 AU Consumer Sentiment May N/A % 0.3
08.30 AU Wage Price Index Q/Q Q1 0.7 % 0.7
08.30 AU Wage Price Index Y/Y Q1 2.6 % 2.6
10.00 JP BoJ Interest Rate Decision May N/A % 0.1
10.00 JP BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
N/A JP BoJ Press Conference
15.00 EZ Current Account NSA EUR Mar 20 B 13.9
15.00 EZ Current Account SA. EUR Mar 23 B 21.9
15.00 EZ Net Investment Flow EUR Mar N/A B 56.2
15.30 GB BOE minutes
15.30 GB Retail Sales Ex-Fuel M/M Apr 0.5 % -0.4
15.30 GB Retail Sales Ex-Fuel Y/Y Apr 5.3 % 4.2
15.30 GB Retail Sales M/M Apr 0.5 % 0.1
15.30 GB Retail Sales Y/Y Apr 5.2 % 4.2
21.00 EZ Consumer Confident Flash May -8.20 IND -8.70
21.30 US DOE/EIA Crude Oil Inventories w/e N/A K 947
21.30 US DOE/EIA Distillate Inventory w/e N/A K -1124
21.30 US DOE/EIA Gasoline Inventories w/e N/A K -722
01.00 US FOMC Minutes
THU/22-May 06.50 JP Foreign Bond Investment w/e N/A B 345.7
06.50 JP Foreign Invest JP Stock w/e N/A B -153.7
08.45 CN HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash May N/A IND 48.1
13.45 FR Business Climate May 100 IND 100
14.00 FR Markit Manufacturing Flash PMI May 51.0 IND 51.2
14.00 FR Markit Services Flash PMI May 50.2 IND 50.4
14.00 FR Markit Composite Flash PMI May N/A IND 50.6
14.30 DE Markit Manufacturing Flash PMI May 54.0 IND 54.1
14.30 DE Markit Services Flash PMI May 54.5 IND 54.7
14.30 DE Markit Composite Flash PMI May N/A IND 56.1
15.00 EZ Markit Manufacturing Flash PMI May 53.2 IND 53.4
15.00 EZ Markit Services Flash PMI May 53.0 IND 53.1
15.00 EZ Markit Composite Flash PMI May 53.0 IND 54.0
15.30 GB GDP 2nd Release Q/Q Q1 0.8 % 0.8
15.30 GB GDP 2nd Release Y/Y Q1 3.1 % 3.1
15.30 GB PSNB-Ex Fin Int Apr 4.500 B 6.693
15.30 GB PSNB. M/M GBP Apr 3.50 B 4.86
15.30 GB PSNCR. M/M GBP Apr N/A B 15.72

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 5
Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014

15.30 HK Consumer Price Index Apr N/A % 3.9

17.00 GB CBI Trends Orders May 4 IND -1
19.30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e N/A K 297
19.30 US Jobless Claims w/e N/A K 323.25
19.30 US Continued Jobless Claims w/e N/A M 2.667
19.30 US National Activity Index Apr N/A IND 0.20
19.30 CA Retail Sales M/M Mar 0.3 % 0.5
19.30 CA Retail Sales Ex-Autos M/M Mar 0.4 % 0.6
20.45 US Markit Manufacturing Flash May 55.5 IND 55.4
21.00 US Existing Home Sales Apr 4.68 M 4.59
21.00 US Existing Home Sales % Change Apr 2.0 % -0.2
21.00 US Leading Index Change M/M Apr 0.3 % 0.8
22.00 US KC Fed Manufacturing May N/A IND 12.0
22.00 US KC Fed Composite Index May N/A IND 7.0
FRI/23-May 13.00 DE GDP Detailed QQ Q1 0.8 % 0.8
13.00 DE GDP Detailed YY Q1 2.3 % 2.5
13.00 DE Ifo Business Climate May 111.9 IND 111.2
13.00 DE Ifo Current Condition May 115.5 IND 115.3
13.00 DE Ifo Expectation May 106.6 IND 107.3
13.00 IT Retail Sales SA M/M Mar N/A % -0.20
13.00 IT Retail Sales NSA Y/Y Mar N/A % -1.00
14.00 IT Wage Inflation M/M Apr N/A % 0.00
14.00 IT Wage Inflation Y/Y Apr N/A % 1.4
17.00 IT Flash Trade Balance non-EU Apr N/A B 2.70
19.30 CA CPI Inflation M/M Apr 0.4 % 0.6
19.30 CA CPI Inflation Y/Y Apr 2.0 % 1.5
19.30 CA CPI BoC Core Y/Y Apr 1.4 % 1.3
19.30 CA CPI BoC Core M/M Apr 0.2 % 0.3
22.00 US New Home Sales - Units Apr 0.420 M 0.384
22.00 US New Home Sales Change M/M Apr N/A % -14.5
(Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Research:@analispasar-@nikolasprasetia)

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 6
Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014

ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS – Daily Outlook

Japan's Nikkei share average rose on Tuesday, snapping a four-day
losing streak supported by a slightly weakening yen, while Yahoo Japan
Corp soared after dropping its plan to buy mobile network operator
eAccess Ltd from SoftBank Corp.
The Nikkei rose 0.5 percent to 14,075.25 points.
The broader Topix gained 0.3 percent to 1,153.38, while the new JPX-
Nikkei Index 400 gained 0.3 percent to 10,522.16.
However, gains were limited by expectations that the Bank Of Japan
may not ease policy further any time soon.
The BOJ is widely expected to keep policy unchanged at a two-day
policy meeting starting on Tuesday, with traders now looking to central
bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's news conference after the meeting
for clues on direction.
"Investors are staying on the sidelines before they hear comments by
Kuroda," said Takuya Takahashi, a strategist at Daiwa Securities. "Unless
he says something that surprises the market, investors will shrug off the
event itself."
Investors continued to monitor developments in Thailand, following
news the army had declared martial law after six months of anti-
government protests, but traders said Japanese companies which have
large exposure to Thailand may be pressured for the time being.
Exporters were mixed after the dollar traded at 101.48 yen, a day after
falling to 101.10 yen, its lowest level since early February. Honda Motor
Co added 0.71 percent, Panasonic Corp dropped 0.38 percent and
Canon Inc gaining 0.66 percent.
Seoul's main stock exchange, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index
(KOSPI) closed down 0.2 percent at 2,011.26 points on selling by local
institutions, but foreign investors were net buyers for a sixth
consecutive session.
Hyundai Motor Co dropped 1.5 percent and Samsung Fire & Marine
Insurance Co Ltd fell 2.6 percent. Meanwhile, steelmaker POSCO slipped
0.7 percent after it indicated it might sell a stake in its trading arm
Daewoo International Corp as part of restructuring plans aimed at
shoring up its finances. Daewoo International ended up 1.17 percent.
"The market is taking a breather following a run, but the upward
momentum remains constructive with continuing foreign inflows. Should
the global economic indicators due later this week come out strong, it
may add more volume to the foreign flows in the near term. The market
still needs consistent signals from the U.S. and China to test higher
levels" said Hanyang Securities analyst Lim Dong-rak.
Investors are awaiting minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's last policy
meeting and factory activity surveys for China, the European Union and
the United States due to be released on Wednesday and Thursday,
respectively.
Hong Kong's benchmark index rose to a five-week closing high on
Tuesday, helped by China Mobile after a broker upgrade pushed shares
of the telecom giant to their highest since January.
The Hang Seng Index ended up 0.6 percent at 22,834.68 points, its
highest close since April 14.
The China Enterprises Index of the leading offshore Chinese listings in
Hong Kong was down 0.3 percent, pulled down mainly by weaker
Chinese banks in the afternoon.
China Construction Bank Corp, Tuesday's biggest drag on indexes, shed
0.7 percent.China Mobile Ltd rose 1.8 percent to its highest close since
Jan. 8 after Goldman Sachs put the world's largest telecom carrier by
subscriber base on its conviction buy list. Competitor China Unicom
Hong Kong Ltd, on which Goldman has a neutral rating, was down 3.1
percent. Lenovo Group Ltd gained 2 percent ahead of its results on
Wednesday.
China shares lingered at three-week lows on Tuesday, as continued
losses in the beverage sector offset most gains from financial and
energy counters.
The Shanghai Composite Index ended a choppy session up 0.2 percent
at 2,008.12 points. The CSI300 of the leading Shanghai and Shenzhen A-
share listings finished flat.
The ChiNext index of mostly high-tech start-ups listed in Shenzhen
gained 1.4 percent, after the country's top securities regulator said it
anticipates 100 initial public offerings between June and the end of the
year, a smaller amount than some investors had feared.
The beverage sector extended losses from Monday, led by Kweichow
Moutai Co Ltd which lost 2 percent and hit the lowest since Feb. 27.
China's top seller of the fiery liquor baijiu was the biggest drag for both
indexes on Tuesday.
(Source: Reuters-Research: @analispasar)

ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2014

HIGH / LOW .N225 .KS200 .HSI .DJI /.SPX /.SSEC
16164.01 264.51 23469.33 16735.51 1902.17 2177.97770
YEAR HIGH (06/Jan/2014) (02/Jan/2014) (02/Jan/2014) (13/May/2014) (13/May/2014) (20/Feb/2014)
13885.11 245.10 21182.16 15340.69 1737.92 1984.82430
YEAR LOW (11/Apr/2014) (04/Feb/2014) (20/Mar/2014) (05/Feb/2014) (05/Feb/2014) (20/Jan/2014)
PREV. YEAR HIGH 16320.22 271.25 24014.81 16588.25 1849.44 2444.80400
PREV. YEAR LOW 10398.61 230.18 19426.36 13104.30 1426.19 1849.65330
38915.87 295.51 31958.41 16735.51 1902.17 6124.04400
RECORD HIGH (29/Dec/89) (03/May/11) (30/Oct/07) (13/May/2014) (13/May/2014) (16/Oct./07)
85.25 31.96 58.61 388.20 132.93 325.92200
RECORD LOW (06/Jul/50) (16/Jun/98) (31/Aug/67) (17/Jan/55) (23/Nov./82) (29/Jul/94)

Closing Prices – 20 May 2014

CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE
.DJI 16374.31  137.55 / 0.83% .N225 14075.25  68.81/0.49%
/.SPX 1872.83  12.25 / 0.65% .KS200 263.04  0.38/0.14%
/.IXIC 4096.891  28.924 /0.70% .HSI 22834.68  130.18/0.57%
JPY= 101.31  0.18/ 0.18% /.SSEC 2008.11880  2.93580/0.15%
KRW= 1025.00  3.50 / 0.34% /CLc1 (Oil) 102.44  0.17 / 0.16%

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 7
Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014

SSIamM4 (Nikkei June Futures)

Exp. Date: 16 Jun. 2014
INTRADAY CHART DAILY CHART

Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS

RSI-14 : 32.54  Mom-14 :  EMA 20 : 14245  WMA 55 : 14352  Daily Trend : 

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME
20 May SSIpmM4 14075 14085 13960 125 13965 ---  100 0.71 18084
20 May SSIamM4 14125 14150 14040 110 14065 14065  30 0.21 35798
19 May SSIpmM4 14060 14095 13900 195 14075 ---  40 0.29 26319
19 May SSIamM4 14185 14200 13990 210 14035 14035  85 0.60 48149
16 May SSIpmM4 14115 14160 14080 80 14120 --- 0 0 19035
16 May SSIamM4 14100 14140 14010 130 14120 14120  190 1.33 55291
15 May SSIpmM4 14320 14370 14025 345 14060 ---  250 1.75 28680
15 May SSIamM4 14255 14315 14190 125 14310 14310  85 0.59 54746
14 May SSIpmM4 14405 14410 14290 120 14315 ---  80 0.56 15860
14 May SSIamM4 14415 14430 14355 75 14395 14395  30 0.21 35322

WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2014

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
14200 13900 14570 13900 15190 13840 16400 13840
(19/May) (19/May) (02/May) (19/May) (03/Apr) (14/Apr) (02/Jan) (14/Apr)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

14660 Reaction high on 1-D chart

RESISTANCE 14570 Reaction high on 4-H chart

14475 Reaction high on 4-H chart

Horizontal support area at 13900 is being tested after correction 14370 Reaction high on 4-H chart
continues to breakout psychological level at 14000. Descending 13840 Bottom area on 1-D chart
triangle formation on 1-D chart and a bearish trend channel on 4-
H chart support downtrend indications. 13750 Bottom area on 1-D chart
Correction potentially continues if manages to breakout 13900 to SUPPORT
13690 Low pivot line
then test the support level at 13840. 13750 and 13690.
Beware of RSI is approaching oversold condition. Rebound 13275 Reaction low on 1-D chart
potentially develops if the support level at 13840 remains intact. BUY ----
(Research – @ErwinRiset)
SELL 14025
RECOMMENDATION
STOP LOSS 14125
13875
TARGET
13700

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 8
Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014

KSM4 (Kospi June Futures)

Exp. Date: 12 Jun. 2014

INTRADAY CHART DAILY CHART

Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS

RSI-14 : 68.52  Mom-14 :  EMA 20 : 259.59  WMA 55 : 258.86  Daily Trend : 

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME

20 May 262.80 263.65 262.40 1.25 262.55 262.55  0.25 0.10 89990
19 May 263.30 263.35 261.40 1.95 262.80 262.80  0.05 0.02 129784
16 May 261.65 263.00 261.50 1.50 262.85 262.85  0.10 0.04 124095
15 May 262.95 264.30 262.55 1.75 262.75 262.75  0.10 0.04 131262
14 May 259.35 263.15 259.35 3.80 262.85 262.85  3.50 1.35 156789

WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2014

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
263.65 261.40 264.30 251.55 264.05 255.15 266.65 245.25
(20/May) (19/May) (15/May) (08/May) (10/Apr) (30/Apr) (02/Jan) (04/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

273.15 Reaction high on 1-D chart

271.60 Peak level on 1-D chart

RESISTANCE
266.65 Peak level on 1-D chart

264.30 High 15/May/2014

Rebound developed though still limited, with the index
managed to hold above the resistance trendline area on 1-D 258.95 Reaction low on 1-H chart
chart.
256.15 Low 13/May/2014
Rebound is also testing the horizontal resistance area at 263.50 SUPPORT
on 1-H chart. If the index is able to hold above the area then the 253.15 Reaction low on 1-H chart
potential rally continues.
251.55 Low 08/May/2014
While a fairly effective support area currently stands at around
261.29, which is 23.6% retracement of wave (251.55 - 264.30). BUY 262.00
(Research – @ErwinRiset)
SELL ---

RECOMMENDATION STOP LOSS 261.00

263.80
TARGET
265.50

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 9
Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014

HSIK4 (Hang Seng March Futures)

Exp. Date: 29 May 2014

INTRADAY CHART DAILY CHART

Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS

RSI-14 : 71.66  Mom-14 :  EMA 20 : 22307  WMA 55 : 22278  Daily Trend : 

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME

20 May 22670 22809 22596 213 22723 22723  149 0.66 51031
19 May 22675 22685 22390 295 22574 22574  1 0.00 48184
16 May 22448 22588 22398 190 22575 22575  25 0.11 42492
15 May 22270 22680 22203 477 22550 22550  164 0.73 53533
14 May 22191 22550 22170 380 22386 22386  187 0.84 50117

WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2014

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
22809 22390 22809 21488 23285 21816 23512 21143
(20/May) (19/May) (20/May) (07/May) (10/Apr) (30/Apr) (02/Jan) (05/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

23512 Peak level on 1-D chart

23416 Peak level on 1-D chart

RESISTANCE
23137 Reaction high on 4-H chart
Rally managed to breakout pivot line area around 22570 at the 22880 Pivot line on 4-H chart
same time tested the next pivot line at 22880 on 4-H chart.
Bullish trend tends to be dominant on 4-H chart, but be aware 22300 Pivot line

that RSI condition is almost overbought. During the area of 22570 22104 Reaction low on 4-H chart
remains intact, then the potential rally continues. SUPPORT
21610 Reaction low on 4-H chart
Rally also managed to breakout the upperline area of a rectangle
formation on 1-D chart around 22680. During the area is 21488 Bottom area on 4-H chart
effective, the potential rally continues.
BUY 22580
Beware of index opened lower around 22600.
(Research – @ErwinRiset) SELL ----

RECOMMENDATION STOP LOSS 22480

22750
TARGET
22900

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 10
Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014

CURRENCIES – Daily Outlook

Dollar drops vs yen as U.S. Treasury yields slide; Aussie slumps
The dollar fell against the yen on Tuesday for a
fifth straight session, undermined by a persistent
drop in U.S. Treasury yields, which analysts say
reflects uncertainty about global growth
prospects.
The greenback could decline further against the
yen if the Bank of Japan does not expand its asset
purchase program. On Wednesday, the Japanese
central bank is widely expected to keep its policy
unchanged at a two-day meeting, but the market
will be focused on BoJ Governor Haruhiko
Kuroda's news conference.
"Kuroda may continue to highlight an improved
outlook for the Japanese economy, and it seems
as though the BoJ will carry its current
(monetary) policy into the second half of the
year," said David Song, current analyst at DailyFX,
a unit of FX broker FXCM in New York.
"That said, dollar/yen no longer looks like a one-way trade as the BoJ softens its dovish tone for monetary policy, and a
greater deviation in the policy outlook may trigger a further decline in the exchange rate," he said.
The Australian dollar, meanwhile, fell to a two-week low against the greenback, hurt by a slide in prices of iron ore, the
country's biggest export earner.
But gains in the U.S. dollar against the Australian currency failed to give the greenback a lift against the yen, which has been
on a five-day winning streak as U.S. Treasury yields have softened in four of the last six sessions.
In late trading, the dollar fell 0.2 percent to 101.29 yen. The pair also traded below its 200-day moving average - a key
technical gauge - for a second straight day.
"The strong correlation between dollar/yen and Treasury yields continue to be the main driver," said Joe Manimbo, senior
market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions in Washington. "Part of that is due to renewed concerns about the health
of the global economy."
Investors have voiced concern about the U.S. housing sector, which could dampen growth in the world's largest economy.
They are also worried about China's economic outlook, a major driver of the Aussie dollar.
Late on Tuesday, the Australian currency slid 0.8 percent to US$0.9254, after earlier dropping to US$0.9251, its lowest since
May 5.
The Aussie has recovered solidly from lows reached in late January, but worries over the pace of growth in China continue to
weigh broadly on its outlook and Reserve Bank deputy governor Guy Debelle said potentially slower capital inflows to
Australia pointed to more weakness.
The euro, meanwhile, slipped 0.1 percent against the dollar to $1.3698.
The euro zone currency could face more of a headwind ahead of potentially destabilizing European Parliament elections this
week, where votes for anti-austerity, euroskeptic parties look set to increase. Expectations of imminent easing from the
European Central Bank have also weighed on the euro's outlook. (Source Reuters, Research – @nikolasprasetia)

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 11
Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014

EUR/USD
INTRADAY CHART DAILY CHART

Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS

RSI-14 : 30.15  Mom-14 :  EMA 20 : 1.3774  WMA 55 : 1.3800  Daily Trend : 

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

May 20 1.3710 1.3713 1.3679 34 1.3700  10 1.3710
May 19 1.3700 1.3734 1.3692 42 1.3710  10 1.3700
May 16 1.3715 1.3727 1.3686 41 1.3700  10 1.3710
May 15 1.3715 1.3732 1.3649 83 1.3710  5 1.3715
May 14 1.3705 1.3731 1.3699 32 1.3715  10 1.3705

WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2014

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
1.3734 1.3679 1.3992 1.3649 1.3905 1.3673 1.3992 1.3478
(19/May) (20/May) (08/May) (15/May) (11/Apr) (04/Apr) (08/May) (03/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

1.3992 High May 08

1.3844 High May 09

RESISTANCE
1.3771 High May 13

1.3734 Reaction high on 4-H

1.3647 Low May 15

1.3641 Reaction low on 1-D chart

SUPPORT
1.3584 Low Feb 13

1.3561 Reaction low on 1-D chart

BUY -----

SELL 1.3725

RECOMMENDATION STOP LOSS 1.3785

1.3680
TARGET
1.3655

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 12
Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014

USD/JPY
INTRADAY CHART DAILY CHART

Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS

RSI-14 : 29.92  Mom-14 :  EMA 20 : 101.90  WMA 55 : 102.12  Daily Trend : 

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

May 20 101.50 101.60 101.20 40 101.30  15 101.45
May 19 101.55 101.59 101.11 48 101.45  10 101.55
May 16 101.50 101.67 101.37 30 101.55 Unch. 101.55
May 15 101.80 102.11 101.32 79 101.55  30 101.85
May 14 102.25 102.28 101.73 55 101.85  40 102.25

WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2014

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
101.60 101.11 103.02 101.11 104.12 101.34 105.44 100.77
(20/May) (19/May) (02/May) (19/May) (04/Apr) (10/Apr) (02/Jan) (04/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

102.70 Pivot Level on 4-H Chart

102.35 Reaction high on 4-H Chart

RESISTANCE
102.11 Reaction High on 4-H Chart

101.67 Reaction High on 4-H Chart

101.07 Reaction Low on 4-H Chart

100.75 Lowest level on February

SUPPORT
99.56 Reaction Low on 1-D Chart

99.10 Reaction Low on 1-D Chart

BUY 101.20

SELL ----

RECOMMENDATION STOP LOSS 100.50

101.55
TARGET
101.90

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 13
Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014

GBP/USD
INTRADAY CHART DAILY CHART

Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS

RSI-14 : 51.47  Mom-14 :  EMA 20 : 1.6822  WMA 55 : 1.6782  Daily Trend : 

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

May 20 1.6815 1.6863 1.6803 60 1.6840  25 1.6815
May 19 1.6825 1.6844 1.6806 38 1.6815  5 1.6820
May 16 1.6790 1.6838 1.6785 53 1.6820  30 1.6790
May 15 1.6770 1.6805 1.6734 71 1.6790  20 1.6770
May 14 1.6830 1.6874 1.6755 119 1.6770  55 1.6825

WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2014

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
1.6863 1.6803 1.6996 1.6734 1.6900 1.6555 1.6996 1.6253
(20/May) (20/May) (06/May) (15/May) (30/Apr) (04/Apr) (06/May) (05/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

1.7042 Peak level on 1-D chart

1.6996 Peak level in this year

RESISTANCE
1.6937 Reaction high on 4-H chart

1.6874 Reaction high on 4-H chart

1.6717 Low 16/Apr/2014

1.6680 Reaction low on 1-D chart

SUPPORT
1.6550 Horizontal support on 4-H chart

1.6507 Reaction low on 4-H chart

BUY 1.6820

SELL ----

RECOMMENDATION STOP LOSS 1.6740

1.6935
TARGET
1.6995

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 14
Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014

USD/CHF
INTRADAY CHART DAILY CHART

Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS
RSI-14 : 76.53  Mom-14 :  EMA 20 : 0.8851  WMA 55 : 0.8836  Daily Trend : 

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

May 20 0.8920 0.8939 0.8914 25 0.8920 UNCH. 0.892
May 19 0.8920 0.8924 0.8905 19 0.8920 UNCH. 0.8920
May 16 0.8910 0.8923 0.8899 24 0.8920  10 0.8910
May 15 0.8895 0.8960 0.8884 76 0.8910  15 0.8895
May 14 0.8900 0.8904 0.8884 20 0.8895  5 0.8900

WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2014

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
0.8939 0.8905 0.8960 0.8705 0.8952 0.8744 0.9156 0.8699
(20/May) (19/May) (15/May) (08/May) (04/Apr) (11/Apr) (21/Jan) (13/Mar)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

0.9081 Reaction high on 1-D chart

0.9038 Reaction high on 1-D chart

RESISTANCE
0.9009 High 13/Feb/2014

0.8960 High 15/Feb/2014

0.8855 Reaction low on 4-H chart

0.8798 Reaction low on 4-H chart

SUPPORT
0.8696 Bottom area on 4-H chart

0.8607 Low 31/Oct/2011

BUY 0.8905

SELL ----

RECOMMENDATION STOP LOSS 0.8835

0.8965
TARGET
0.9030

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 15
Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014

AUD/USD
INTRADAY CHART DAILY CHART

Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS

RSI-14 : 27.01  Mom-14 :  EMA 20 : 0.9319  WMA 55 : 0.9300  Daily Trend : 

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

May 20 0.9330 0.9335 0.9242 93 0.9245  85 0.9330
May 19 0.9365 0.9376 0.9326 50 0.9330  35 0.9365
May 16 0.9355 0.9371 0.9336 35 0.9365  10 0.9355
May 15 0.9370 0.9393 0.9328 65 0.9355  20 0.9375
May 14 0.9365 0.9408 0.9355 53 0.9375  20 0.9355

WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2014

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
0.9376 0.9242 0.9408 0.9204 0.9461 0.9207 0.9461 0.8661
(19/May) (20/May) (14/May) (02/May) (10/ Apr) (03/Apr) (10/ Apr) (24/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

0.9426 Reaction high on 4-H chart

0.9408 High May 14

RESISTANCE
0.9393 High May 15

0.9335 High May 20

0.9236 Low May 20

0.9200 Low May 02

SUPPORT
0.9151 Low Mar 26

0.9117 Low Mar 25

BUY ----

SELL 0.9265

RECOMMENDATION STOP LOSS 0.9345

0.9210
TARGET
0.9180

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 16
Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014

EUR/JPY
INTRADAY CHART DAILY CHART

Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS

RSI-14 : 20.41  Mom-14 :  EMA 20 : 140.34  WMA 55 : 140.89  Daily Trend : 

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

May 20 139.15 139.30 138.55 75 138.80  25 139.05
May 19 139.10 139.26 138.62 64 139.05  5 139.10
May 16 139.20 139.44 138.77 67 139.10  15 139.25
May 15 139.65 139.86 138.99 87 139.25  45 139.70
May 14 140.15 140.27 139.47 80 139.70  45 140.15

WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2014

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

139.30 138.55 142.37 138.55 143.47 140.09 145.09 136.25
(20/May) (20/May) (02/May) (20/May) (02/Apr) (08/Apr) (02/Jan) (04/Feb)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

142.38 Pivot Line

140.90 Reaction High on 4-H Chart

RESISTANCE
140.12 Reaction low on 4-H Chart

139.21 Reaction high on 4-H Chart

138.48 Reaction Low on 4-H Chart

138.12 Low 07/02/2014

SUPPORT
136.21 Lowest Level 2014

134.11 Reaction Low on 1-D Chart

BUY 138.60

SELL ----

RECOMMENDATION STOP LOSS 137.90

139.08
TARGET
139.57

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 17
Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014

PRECIOUS METAL – Daily Outlook

Platinum firms on strike action, gold holds near $1,290/oz

Platinum group metals rose on
Tuesday as South Africa's longest
and costliest miners' strike ground
on, while gold edged up as gains in
the dollar held it near key chart
support.
Platinum gained in intraday trade
after refiner Johnson Matthey said it
believed the deficit in the platinum
market will expand to 1.218 million
ounces this year, its largest shortfall
in a data series going back to 1975.
Spot platinum was up 0.1 percent at
$1,464.75 an ounce by 3:51 p.m. EDT
(1951 GMT). Earlier, it hit a high of
$1,476.30, not far from last week's
peak of $1,483.50, its strongest since
early March.
U.S. NYMEX platinum contract for
July delivery settled down $1.30 at
$1,468.90 an ounce,
underperforming spot.
Despite recent strength, platinum is struggling to break higher on the back of the miners' strike in top platinum producer
South Africa, source of around three-quarters of world supply, as the availability of above-ground stocks curbs gains.
"While palladium is in an uptrend, platinum is still stuck in a sideways trading pattern. $1,490 seems to be too much of a
challenge at this stage," Saxo Bank's head of commodities research Ole Hansen said.
The four-month action against Anglo American Platinum, Impala Platinum and Lonmin, has disrupted 40 percent of platinum
output and could cost 1 million ounces of production this year.
The strikes turned violent this month, with four miners killed as more employees tried to report for work, ignoring calls by the
union to continue protesting.
Palladium rose 1.2 percent to $821.90 an ounce.
Palladium holdings of exchange-traded funds hit record highs after an 8,000-ounce inflow into Standard Bank's
AfricaPalladium fund on Monday.
Gold, meanwhile, remained near $1,290 an ounce as the dollar index rose 0.1 percent and an industry report showed demand
in major consumers China and India fell in the first quarter.
Spot gold edged up 0.2 percent to $1,294.29 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures for June delivery settled up 80 cents at
$1,294.60 per ounce.
The World Gold Council said on Tuesday consumer gold demand in the world's biggest buyer China fell 18 percent to 263.2
tonnes, with Chinese demand for gold coins and bars down 55 percent in the first quarter, offset only partially by a 10 percent
rise in jewellery offtake.
Indian consumer demand was down by just over a quarter to 190.3 tonnes, although a drop in sales from bullion-backed
investment funds kept overall demand steady.
Among other precious metals, spot silver edged up 0.2 percent at $19.36 an ounce.
(Source Reuters, Research – @nikolasprasetia)

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 18
Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014

GOLD (XAU/USD)
INTRADAY CHART DAILY CHART

Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS

XAU= RSI-14 : 48.16  Mom-14 :  EMA 20 : 1.296.01  WMA 55 : 1.299.76  Daily Trend : 
=USD RSI-14 : 64.35  Mom-14 :  EMA 20 : 79.83  WMA 55 : 79.81  Daily Trend : 

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS AM FIX PM FIX
May 20 1293.40 1296.60 1286.30 10.30 1294.00  1.00 1293.00 1291.50 1295.50
May 19 1292.00 1304.90 1290.08 14.82 1293.00  1.00 1292.00 1301.00 1302.00
May 16 1297.20 1298.15 1288.00 10.15 1292.00  4.50 1296.50 1293.75 1291.50
May 15 1305.50 1307.00 1291.30 15.70 1296.50  9.00 1305.50 1303.75 1299.00
May 14 1295.50 1308.80 1291.90 16.90 1305.50 12.50 1293.00 1300.25 1305.25

WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2014

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
1304.90 1286.30 1315.60 1277.10 1330.90 1268.80 1391.76 1204.13
(19/May) (20/May) (05/May) (02/May) (14/Apr) (24/Apr) (17/Mar) (02/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

1308.80 High May 14

1307.00 High May 15

RESISTANCE
1304.90 High May 19

1296.60 High May 20

1285.70 Low May 20

1279.60 Low May 12

SUPPORT
1276.60 Low May 02

1268.24 Reaction low on daily chart

BUY -----

SELL 1298.00
RECOMMENDATION STOP LOSS 1311.00

1289.00
TARGET
1284.00

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 19
Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014

SILVER (XAG/USD)
INTRADAY CHART DAILY CHART

Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS

XAG= RSI-14 : 47.79  Mom-14 :  EMA 20 : 19.44  WMA 55 : 19.59  Daily Trend : 
=USD RSI-14 : 64.35  Mom-14 :  EMA 20 : 79.83  WMA 55 : 79.81  Daily Trend : 

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

May 20 19.31 19.44 19.22 0.22 19.39  0.05 19.34
May 19 19.34 19.67 19.32 0.35 19.34 Unch. 19.34
May 16 19.48 19.52 19.25 0.27 19.34  0.13 19.48
May 15 19.75 19.81 19.41 0.40 19.48  0.29 19.76
May 14 19.52 19.98 19.49 0.49 19.76  0.25 19.52

WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2014

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
19.67 19.22 19.98 18.77 20.38 18.93 22.16 18.77
(19/May) (20/May) (14/May) (01/May) (10/Apr) (24/Apr) (24/Feb) (01/May)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

20.02 High May 15

19.97 High May 14

RESISTANCE
19.81 High May 15

19.67 High May 19

19.17 Low May 20

18.97 Low May 12

SUPPORT
18.86 Low May 02

18.82 Reaction low on daily chart

BUY -----

SELL 19.50
RECOMMENDATION STOP LOSS 19.95

19.25
TARGET
19.00

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Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014

OIL – Daily Outlook

Brent rises on Libya, pulls U.S. oil up despite stocks

Brent rose modestly on Tuesday
supported by instability in Libya,
pulling U.S. oil for July delivery
higher in spite of expectations for an
increase in domestic stockpiles.
The El Feel and El Shahara oilfields in
western Libya were still shut more
than a week after the government
said protests there were over, an
official said, and output was flat at
210,000 barrels a day.
Violence among rival militias and an
attack on parliament on Sunday by
armed men claiming loyalty to
retired Major General Khalifa Haftar
led French oil major Total SA to cut
its presence in Tripoli and Algerian
state energy company Sonatrach
began evacuating workers.
The movement by Haftar may signal
an attempt to draw up a broader anti-Islamist front that risks a wider battle in the North African state, which is
trying to boost oil exports crucial to the economy.
U.S. commercial crude stockpiles likely surged to their highest in more than 20 years, a Reuters poll found.
Brent crude settled 32 cents higher at $109.69 a barrel. U.S. crude for June delivery, which expired Tuesday,
settled 17 cents lower at $102.44, after hitting its highest price in nearly one month on Monday. U.S. crude for July
delivery settled 22 cents up at $102.33 a barrel.
"I think we are worried about Libya, but it seems that the market wasn't ever convinced it would be a reliable
supplier and that's why you're not seeing any major follow through moves higher after the initial spike up on
Monday," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.
RECORD-HIGH U.S. STOCKS
A Reuters poll found U.S. commercial crude stocks were expected be up by 800,000 barrels in the week to May 16,
while gasoline stocks likely rose 100,000 barrels and refinery runs were up 0.6 percent.
U.S. crude stocks rose in the week to May 9, with inventories rising 947,000 barrels as production hit a 28-year
high of 8.43 million barrels per day, according to data from the EIA.
A report released after the settlement by the industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed an
unexpected drop in crude stocks of 10.3 million barrels. The report lent support to U.S. crude futures for July,
which extended gains in post-settlement trading.
The more closely watched EIA data will come out Wednesday at 14.30 GMT (21.30 WIB).
This weekend marks the start of the U.S. summer driving season with Monday's Memorial Day holiday.
Ukraine is set to hold presidential elections Sunday. A senior Russian official said the vote risks deepening divisions
absent any "road map" to end the crisis. (Source Reuters, Research – @nikolasprasetia)

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Research Dept.
Daily Bulletin
Wednesday 21 May 2014

CLN4/USD
(Exp.: 20 June 2014)

INTRADAY CHART DAILY CHART

Reuters Graphic Reuters Graphic

DAILY CHART INDICATORS

/CLc1 RSI-14 : 62.34  Mom-14 :  EMA 20 : 101.30  WMA 55 : 101.32  Daily Trend : 
=USD RSI-14 : 64.35  Mom-14 :  EMA 20 : 79.83  WMA 55 : 79.81  Daily Trend : 

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

May 20 (CLN4) 102.15 102.92 101.55 1.37 102.98  0.82 102.16

May 19 102.13 103.06 102.00 1.06 102.58  0.40 102.18
May 16 101.55 102.20 101.43 0.77 102.18  0.60 101.58
May 15 102.07 102.23 101.35 0.88 101.58  0.50 102.08
May 14 101.99 102.63 101.87 0.76 102.08  0.13 101.95

WEEKLY MAY APRIL 2014

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
103.06 101.55 103.06 98.77 104.96 98.89 105.19 91.27
(19/May) (20/May) (19/May) (01/May) (16/Apr) (02/Apr) (03/Mar) (09/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

104.99 Reaction High on 1-D Chart

104.11 High Apr 22

RESISTANCE
103.81 High Apr 10

103.58 High Mar 06

101.27 Reaction Low 4-H

100.36 Low May 13

SUPPORT
99.93 Low May 12

99.71 Low May 09

BUY 102.60
SELL ----

RECOMMENDATION STOP LOSS 101.90

102.95
TARGET
102.61

GLOBAL MARKETS & ECONOMIES | WEEKLY ECONOMIC CALENDAR | ASIAN STOCK INDICATORS | CURRENCIES | PRECIOUS METAL | OIL Page | 22