GCE A Level Maths 9709

SMIYL
April 2023

6.5 Hypothesis Tests

In this topic we will learn how to:

• understand the nature of a hypothesis test, the difference between one-

tailed and two-tailed tests, and the terms null hypothesis, alternative hy-
pothesis, significance level, rejection region (or critical region), acceptance
region and test statistic.
• formulate hypotheses and carry out a hypothesis test concerning the pop-
ulation mean in cases where the population is normally distributed with
known variance or where a large sample is used
• interpret outcomes of hypothesis terms in context with the question
z-tests (Normal Distribution Tests)
Hypothesis Test Terminology

Let’s start by going over some key terminology for hypothesis tests.
These terms will be used in both normal and discrete tests.

A null hypothesis is a neutral statement, that assumes that our data

(population mean) is unchanged. It is denoted by,

H0

Which is pronounced H nought.

An alternative hypothesis is a statement that assumes that our data

(population mean) has changed. It is denoted by,

H1

Which is pronounced H one.

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A one-tailed test is one that tests for a definite increase or a definite
decrease in the population mean. If it tests for a definite increase,
it is an upper-tailed test. If it tests for a definite decrease, it is a
lower-tailed test.

A two-tailed test is one that tests whether the population mean has
changed. It does not specify whether we’re testing for a definite
decrease or a definite increase.

The significance level represents the probability of the changes to the

population mean happening by chance.

The rejection region (or critical region) is the region in which we re-
ject the null hypothesis in favour of the alternative hypothesis because
the changes to the population mean are significant.

The acceptance region is the region in which we accept the null hy-
pothesis, and assume that any changes to the population mean are
not significant and are due to chance.

The test statistic is the population mean derived from a sample that
helps us assess how consistent the sample data is with the null hy-
pothesis. It is usually denoted by,
x

z-tests

A z-test is a hypothesis test for a population that follows a normal

distribution. The steps we will outline below can also be used for a
large sample that does not follow a normal distribution, in which we
can use the Central Limit Theorem to assume that it’s sample mean
follows a normal normal distribution. The steps are outlined below:
Step 1
Define the random variable

Step 2
State the distribution of the random variable

Step 3
State null and alternative hypotheses
Step 4
Define the distribution of the sample mean

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Note: If you have a large sample which is not normally distributed,
use CLT to define the distribution of the sample mean.

Step 5

State the rejection rule

Step 6
Use the test statistic to calculate the z-value

Step 7
Use the rejection rule to determine whether to reject or accept H0

Step 8
Conclude in context

Let’s look at some z-tests from past paper questions.

1. The time, in minutes, that John takes to travel to work has a normal
distribution. Last year the mean and standard deviation were 26.5 and
4.8 respectively. This year John uses a different route and he finds that the
mean time for his first 150 journeys is 27.5 minutes. Stating a necessary
assumption, test at the 1% significance level whether the mean time for
his journey to work has increased. (9709/71/M/J/19 number 2)

Define the random variable,

X-r.v, time, in minutes, that John takes to travel to work

State the distribution,

X ∼ N (µ, 4.82 )

State null and alternative hypotheses,

H0 : µ = 26.5

H1 : µ > 26.5

Note: We’re testing for a definite increase, so this is an upper

tail test, hence the > sign.

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Define the distribution of the sample mean,

4.82
 
X ∼ N 26.5,
150

State the rejection rule

Since the significance level is 1%, find the z − value at 99%,

z = ϕ−1 (0.99)

z = 2.522

1%

z
0 2.522

The rejection rule is,

Reject H0 if z > 2.326

Use the test statistic to calculate the z − value,

x−µ
z=
σ
27.5 − 26.5
z= q
4.82
150

z = 2.552

Compare the z − value to the rejection rule,

Reject H0 if z > 2.326

2.552 > 2.326

Reject H0 in favour of H1

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 Conclude in context,

There is evidence, at the 1% significance level, that the mean time for
John’s journey to work has increased.

2. Harry has a five-sided spinner with sectors coloured blue, green, red, yellow
and black. Harry thinks the spinner may be biased. He plans to carry out
a hypothesis test with the following hypotheses.
1
H0 : P (the spinner lands on blue) =
5
1
H1 : P (the spinner lands on blue) ̸=
5
Harry spins the spinner 300 times. It lands on blue on 45 spins. Use a
suitable approximation to carry out Harry’s test at the 5% significance
level. (9709/62/F/M/22 number 2)

Define the random variable,

X-r.v, number of times the spinner lands on blue

State the distribution,

X ∼ B(300, p)

State null and alternative hypotheses,

1
H0 : P (the spinner lands on blue) =
5
1
H1 : P (the spinner lands on blue) ̸=
5

Note: We’re not testing for a definite increase or definite de-

crease, we’re testing for a change, therefore, it is a two-tailed
test. It is denoted by the ̸= sign in the alternative hypothesis.

Define the distribution of the sample mean,

Since n = 300 > 30, using CLT,
X ∼ N (np, npq)
Assuming H0 is true,
 
1 1 4
X ∼ N 300 × , 300 × ×
5 5 5
X ∼ N (60, 48)

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State the rejection rule

Since the significance level is 5%, and it is a two-tailed test, find

the z − value at 97.5%,

z = ϕ−1 (0.975)

z = 1.96

2.5% 2.5%

z
−1.96 0 1.96

Note: Since it is a two-tailed test, divide the value of the signif-

icance level by 2. Put half of the significance level on the lower
tail and put the other half on the upper tail.

The rejection rule is,

Reject H0 if |z| > 1.96

Note: |z| > 1.96 is the same as z > 1.96 and z > −1.96.

Since we have approximated from a discrete distribution (bi-

nomial) to a continuous distribution (normal), we have to do
continuity correction on the test statistic. In the binomial dis-
tribution the test statistic is 45. However, in a continuous dis-
tribution 45 represents 44.5 < x < 45.5. If the test statistic is less
than the population mean (in our case 45 is smaller than 60) then
treat like a lower tail test and take the upper bound, however, if
the test statistic is larger than the mean, take the lower bound
and treat it like an upper tail test. So in this case, we will take
the upper bound, 45.5.

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Use the test statistic to calculate the z − value,
x−µ
z=
σ
45.5 − 60
z= √
48
z = −2.093

Compare the z − value to the rejection rule,

Reject H0 if |z| > 1.96

−2.093 < −1.96

Reject H0 in favour of H1

Conclude in context,

There is evidence, at the 5% significance level, that the spinner is biased.