HYPOTHESES

AND HYPOTHESIS TESTING

WHAT IS A HYPOTHESIS
• a tentative statement about a population
parameter that might be true or wrong
• a preliminary or tentative explanation or postulate
by the researcher of what the researcher
considers the outcome of an investigation will be.
It is an informed/educated guess.
• the expectations of the researcher regarding
certain variables.

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WHEN IS A HYPOTHESIS FORMULATED

• A hypothesis is formulated after the problem has

been stated and the literature study has been
concluded.
• It is formulated when the researcher is totally
aware of the theoretical and empirical
background to the problem.

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NULL HYPOTHESIS (H0)
• An implied hypothesis. “Null” meaning “nothing.”
• The null hypothesis is a presumption of status quo
or no change.
• It is equal to some claimed value (e.g. H0 = 0.5; H0
= 0)

ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS (Ha)

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EXAMPLES:

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EXAMPLES:

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EXAMPLES:
a) The proportion of drivers who admit to running red
lights is greater than 0.5.
H0: p = 0.5; Ha: p > 0.5

b) The mean height of professional basketball players is at

most 7 ft.

c) The standard deviation of IQ scores of actors is equal

to 15.

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HYPOTHESIS TESTING
USE A TEST STATISTIC TO FIND
THE P-VALUE
P-VALUE: probability that the data would have
occurred by random chance. It is the probability
that the null hypothesis is true

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STEPS FOR HYPOTHESIS TESTING
Formulate H0 and Ha

Select Appropriate Test

Choose Level of Significance

Calculate Test Statistic

Determine Prob Determine Critical

Assoc with Test Stat Value of Test Stat

Determine if Test Stat

Compare with Level falls into (Non)
of Significance, α Rejection Region

Reject/Do not Reject H0

Draw Research Conclusion

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REJECTION REGIONS

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Confidence interval [CI]: a range of values that one is (99%,
95%, 90%) confident that the true population mean lies within
a range of values

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Z-test: a statistical test to determine whether two
population means are different when the variances are
known, and the sample size is large (n > 30).
One sample Z-test: tests
whether the sample mean is significantly
different (greater than, less than or equal) to some specific
value when the population's standard deviation is known.

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One sample Z-test formula:

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EXAMPLES:
1. Suppose the IQ in a population is normally distributed with a mean of μ =
100 and standard deviation of σ = 15. A scientist wants to know if a new
medication affects IQ levels, so she recruits 20 patients to use it for one month
nd found that the mean IQ level of these patients is 103.05

Step 1: Gather the given information.

Step 2: Define the hypotheses.

Step 3: Calculate z-test statistic.

• z = (x – μ) / (σ√n)
• z = (103.05 – 100) / (15/√20)
• z = 0.90933

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Step 4: Determine the p-value associated with the calculated z-test

The two-tailed p-value associated with z = 0.90933 is approximately

0.36318 (using z-score to p-value calculator:
https://www.statology.org/z-score-to-p-value-calculator/)

Step 4: Draw a conclusion

Since the p-value (0.36318) is not less than the significance level
(.05), the scientist will fail to reject the null hypothesis.
There is not sufficient evidence to say that the new medication
significantly affects IQ level.

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 Aside from the p-value method, you also
compare the computed z with critical z:
Step 4: Compare computed z with critical z
α Left-tail Right-tail Two-tail
0.10 -1.282 1.282 1.282
0.05 -1.645 1.645 1.645
0.025 -1.960 1.960 1.960
0.010 -2.236 2.236 2.576
0.005 -2.576 2.576
0.001 -3.090 3.090 3.291
0.0001 -3.719 3.719 3.819

Step 4: Draw a conclusion

Result
Since z = 0.9093 < 1.645 (at α =
0.05, two-tailed test), we fail to
reject the null hypothesis
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• z = (x – μ) / (σ√n)
• z = (9.57 – 9.5) / (0.4/√180)
• z = 2.33 (p-value = 0.0198)

• Reject the null hypothesis (p-value < 0.05). There is enough

evidence that the mean calcium level in this population is
different from 9.5

Using zcrit
Since z = 2.33 > 1.645 (at α = 0.05,
two-tailed test), we reject the null
hypothesis
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 • z = (x – μ) / (σ√n)
• z = (461 – 450) / (100/√500)
• z = 2.46 (p-value = 0.00695)

• Reject the null hypothesis (p-value < 0.05). There is enough

evidence that the mean score for all seniors is > 450

Using zcrit
Since z = 2.46 > 1.645 (at α = 0.05,
right-tailed test), we reject the null
hypothesis
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T-test: a statistical test that is used to
compare the means of two groups
One sample t-test: used to test whether or
not the mean of a population is equal to
some value. Sample size n < 30

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One sample t-test formula:

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EXAMPLES:
1. Suppose we want to know whether or not the mean weight of a certain
species of turtle is equal to 310 pounds. Sd is 18.5 for a sample of 40 and a
sample mean of 300

Step 1: Gather the given information.

Step 2: Define the hypotheses.

Step 3: Calculate t-test statistic.

• t = (x – μ) / (s/√n) = (300-310) / (18.5/√40) = -3.4187

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Step 4: Determine the p-value associate with the calculated t-score

The two-tailed p-value associated with t = -3.4817 and degrees of freedom

= n-1 = 40-1 = 39 is approximately 0.00124 (using t-score to p-value
calculator: https://www.statology.org/t-score-p-value-calculator/)

Step 4: Draw a conclusion

Since the p-value (0.00124) is less than the significance level (.05),
reject the null hypothesis.
There is sufficient evidence to say that the mean weight of this
species of turtle is not equal to 310 pounds.

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EXAMPLES:
2 . imagine a company wants to test the claim that their batteries last more
than 40 hours. Using a simple random sample of 15 batteries yielded a mean of
44.9 hours, with a standard deviation of 8.9 hours. Test this claim using a
significance level of 0.05.

• t = (x – μ) / (s/√n) = (44.9-40) / (8.9/√15) = 2.13

The one-tailed p-value associated with t = 2.13 and degrees of freedom of

14 is approximately 0.025 (using t-score to p-value calculator:
https://www.statology.org/t-score-p-value-calculator/)

Since the p-value (0.025) is less than the significance level (.05),
reject the null hypothesis.
There is sufficient evidence to conclude the company’s claim that
their batteries last for more than 40 hours.
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One sample Z-test One sample t-test
formula: formula:

(using z-score to p-value calculator: (using t-score to p-value calculator:

https://www.statology.org/z-score-to-p- https://www.statology.org/t-score-p-value-calculator/)
value-calculator/) 24
MORE EXAMPLES:
1. A researcher reports that the average salary of college deans is more than
63,000. A sample of 35 college deans has a mean salary of 65,700. At α = 0.01,
test the claim that the college deans earn more than 63,000 a month. The sd of
the population is 5,250. USE Z-TEST (1-tailed)

• z = (x – μ) / (σ√n)
• z = (65,700 – 63,000) / (5,250/√35)
• z = 2700/889
• z = 3.04 (p-value = 0.00118)
• p-value < 0.01, then we reject the null hypothesis. We accept the
claim that college deans earn more than 63,000 a month
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MORE EXAMPLES:
2. A researcher claims that the monthly consumption of coffee per person is
more than 19 cups. In a sample of 60 randomly selected people, the mean
monthly consumption was 20. The sd of the sample was 4 cups. Find the
p-value of the test. On the basis of the p-value, is the researchers claim valid at
α = 0.01? T-TEST (1-tailed test)

• t = (20 – 19) / (4/√60) = 1 / 0.516 = 1.94

• p-value of 1.94 = 0.02858 > 0.01, we fail to reject the null
hypothesis. There is no sufficient basis that the consumption of
coffee is more than 19 cups

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MORE EXAMPLES:
3. Powder milk is packed in 1-kg bags. An inspector from DTI suspects that the
bags may not contain exactly 1 kg. A sample of 40 bags produces a mean of
0.96 kg and a sd of 0.12 kg. Is there enough evidence to conclude that the bags
are less than 1 kg as stated at 95% confidence? (One-tailed, T-test)

• t = (0.96 – 1) / (0.12/√40) = -0.04 / 0.019 = -2.01

• p-value of -2.01 = 0.026 < 0.05, we reject the null hypothesis.
There is enough evidence to conclude that the bags are less than
1kg.

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MORE EXAMPLES:
4. The average baptismal cost include 50 guests. A random sample of 32
baptismal during the past year in NCR had a mean of 53 guests and a sd of 10.
Is there sufficient evidence at the 0.05 level of significance that the average
number of guests differ from national average? T-TEST (2-tailed test)

• t = (32 – 50) / (10/√32) = -18 / 1.77 = -10.1

• p-value of -10.1 = 0.000 < 0.05, we reject the null hypothesis.
There is enough evidence to conclude that the the average
number of guests differ from national average

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MORE EXAMPLES:
5. Suppose you start up a company that has developed a drug that is meant to
increase IQ. You know that the standard deviation of IQ in the general
population is 15. You test your drug on 36 patients and obtained a mean IQ of
97.65. At α = 0.05, is this IQ significantly different that the population mean of
100? Z-TEST (2-tailed test)

• z = (97.65 – 100) / (15/√36) = -2.35 / 2.5 = -0.94

• p-value of -0.94 = 0.3472 > 0.05, we fail to reject the null
hypothesis. There is not enough evidence to conclude that the the
average number the IQ of those who used the drug is different
from 100.
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TYPE I AND TYPE II ERROR
Type I Error
• Occurs if the null hypothesis is rejected when it is in fact true.
• The probability of type I error ( α ) is also called the level of
significance.

Type II Error
• Occurs if the null hypothesis is not rejected when it is in fact
false.
• The probability of type II error is denoted by β .
• Unlike α, which is specified by the researcher, the magnitude
of β depends on the actual value of the population
parameter (proportion).

It is necessary to balance the two types of

errors.
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TYPE I AND TYPE II ERROR
• A Type I error may be compared to a “false positive”
• The rate of type I error is called the size of the test
and denoted by Greek letter α
• It is usually equals the significance level of a test.
• For example, if type I error is fixed at 5%, it means
that there are about 5 chances in 100 we will reject
the null hypothesis when it is true
• The chances of making a type I error are reduced by
increasing the level of confidence (e.g. 99%). This
method is called prescriptive testing

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TYPE I AND TYPE II ERROR
• A Type II error may be compared to a “false
negative”
• The rate of type II error is denoted by a Greek letter
β and related to the power of a test (1- β)
• The power of a test is the probability (1 - β) of
rejecting the null hypothesis when it is false and
should be rejected.
• Descriptive testing is used to better describe the test
condition and acceptance criteria which can reduce
type II errors.
• However, reducing one type of error may increase
the other type of error.
• Increasing the sample size may help reduce the
possibility of type II error
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