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Textbook Ebook Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing Models of Financial Economics and Their Applications in Investing Erol Hakanoglu All Chapter PDF
Textbook Ebook Portfolio Selection and Asset Pricing Models of Financial Economics and Their Applications in Investing Erol Hakanoglu All Chapter PDF
JAMIL BAZ
HELEN GUO
EROL HAKANOGLU
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To Zeina, Maurice, Elena, and Alexandra,
with love and admiration.
J.B.
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii
PART I
Mathematical Foundations
1 Functional Analysis in Real Vector Spaces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3
PART II
Portfolio Models
7 Single-Period and Continuous-Time Portfolio Choice . . . . . . . . . . . .97
vii
viii • Contents
PART III
Asset Pricing
10 Equilibrium Asset Pricing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .161
PART IV
Asset Allocation in Practice
15 Motivations for Robust Asset Allocation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .297
18 Shrinkage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .329
Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .367
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .393
Introduction
Portfolio selection and asset pricing are the centerpieces of finance. If there
is any hope to have fundamental theorems in financial economics, these two
topics arguably provide the best opportunity. Yet, because financial markets
constantly involve complex feedback between actors and models, the size of the
gap between the fundamental results of mathematics and physics and those of
finance is humbling.
How do we solve quantitative problems? In the realm of mathematics, we
formulate rigorous theorems and prove their validity with little left to approx-
imation. Chemistry and physics are built on fundamental laws and theorems
that are amenable to rigorous experimental verification, such as Newton’s laws of
motion and thermodynamics, Maxwell’s equations of electricity and magnetism,
and Einstein’s general relativity theory.
When we move away from pure mathematics, in order to formulate and
verify our understanding of nature, we rely on models of reality, built either
physically or as thought experiments. If mathematics lies at one end of the spec-
trum of sciences, economics and finance belong at the other end. In the latter,
the models need to account for quirky human behavior, which at times does not
even obey basic building blocks of logic such as transitivity.
Compared with mathematics or the physical sciences, the fundamental laws
of financial economics are just a valiant attempt to make sense of messy data and
behaviors. We try hard to do the best we can. After all, instead of universal con-
stants such as π, Avogadro’s number N, gravitational constant g, speed of light c,
and Planck’s constant h, we must deal with the short-term interest rate set by a
subordinate deity who runs the Federal Reserve.
ix
x • Introduction
Jorge Luis Borges, a brilliant and sometimes delirious writer of the twentieth
century, imagined a realm where the science of map making becomes so precise
that only a one-to-one scale is acceptable—acceptable but wholly impractical,
even if possible.1 In this book, we will settle for less than perfect models of port-
folios and assets and their interconnections.
Asset Pricing
Asset pricing is about connecting payoffs in future states of the world with
the right discount rate. Most interesting pricing problems involve uncertainty
around these states of the world and a stochastic discount rate.
In pricing assets, general equilibrium models and consumption-based models
help us determine prices for assets based on fundamental risk factors in the econ-
omy, such as the capital asset pricing model and the family of models derived
from it. Financial markets abound with observable prices for a plethora of assets.
Some assets are more easily valued relative to their observably priced reference
assets. The Black–Scholes–Merton option pricing model exemplifies these type
of valuation methodologies.
Portfolio Selection
From the management of pension funds to personal finances, from corporate
capital structure management to sovereign asset-liability management, from
insurance company asset portfolio management to endowment and sovereign
wealth fund management, literally billions of people around the globe directly
or indirectly depend on portfolio selection. We will attempt to present the fun-
damentals of portfolio selection that evolved into an impressive body of work
over the past seven decades.
Once the groundwork is laid, we will discuss portfolio selection theories
in depth, studying their interconnections and differences. The efficacy of any
model hinges on its theoretical construct and on the realism and accuracy of its
inputs. We focus on statistical approaches that help us attain that realism and
accuracy, such as robust estimation. In discussing implementation issues, we
1 J. L. Borges, “On Exactitude in Science,” in A Universal History of Infamy. New York: Penguin, 1975.
Introduction • xi
will describe the leading methodologies in the field and differentiate between
them critically.
...
The finance literature is home to a vast number of texts on asset pricing and
portfolio selection. The focus of these texts is mostly on only one of the two;
in only a few cases are both considered together. Our aim is to take the latter
approach while demonstrating pathways from one to the other and vice versa
and while treating theory and applications holistically.
You should be familiar with the language of mathematics to get the best
out of this book. We assume competence in the fundamentals of multivariate
calculus, differential equations, linear algebra, probability, and statistics. Having
said that, Part I of this text is dedicated to a review and extension of these fun-
damentals. If you are familiar with relevant topics, you can skim through Part I
and jump to Part II without missing the essence of this book.
The intended audience of this text includes advanced undergraduates in
mathematics, economics, finance, and engineering; MBA students with a
quantitative bent; students in financial engineering master’s programs; doctoral
students in mathematical economics, finance, and financial engineering; and
practitioners in the financial industry interested in quantitative finance and
economics.
This book is divided in four parts. Even though they could be appreciated
independently, we believe that going through each individually is most benefi-
cial. We have written the chapters so that they are as self-contained as practically
possible. In this spirit, each chapter has a summary of contents up front. We
outline the four parts as follows:
In Part I, we lay out the mathematical foundations of the theories and prac-
tical applications that make up the rest of the text. The idea is to provide a
compact introduction to many concepts of mathematical analysis that lurk in
the background, sometimes hardly visible yet fundamental to the development
of modern finance. We rely on well-known texts in summarizing definitions,
theorems, and their proofs, which we believe promote a thorough understand-
ing of what follows.
In Part II, we cover portfolio selection models. The fundamental concepts and
theories are laid out in detail in single-period and continuous-time settings. In
what we believe is an interestingly novel treatment, the last section of Chapter 7
xii • Introduction
2 I. Calvino, Six Memos for the New Millennium. Boston: Harvard University Press, 1988. Italo Calvino
passed away just before completing the final “memo” and could not actually deliver the much-anticipated
lectures in September 1985.
Acknowledgments
xiii
xiv • Acknowledgments
Mathematical
Foundations
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1
Functional Analysis in
Real Vector Spaces
Summary
The primary mathematical idea behind portfolio selection theory and
practice is optimization. Functional analysis, which is the study of vector
spaces in finite and infinite dimensions using concepts and insights from
linear algebra, analysis, and geometry, serves as the mathematical basis for
theories and optimization models of portfolio selection.1 Representation,
projection, duality, extension, and separating-hyperplane theorems form
the analytic basis for a significant portion of resource and asset allocation,
planning, optimal control, approximation, and estimation problems in
financial economics. Optimization theory could be developed in finite-
dimensional Euclidean space using elementary geometric concepts and
intuitions. As the complexity of the underlying problems increases, exten-
sion to infinite-dimensional spaces becomes indispensable.
1 The following are standard symbolic abbreviations used throughout this part: ∀ is “for all”; ∈ is “in”;
∋ is “such that”; ∃ is “there exists”; ≡ is “defined as”; ≠ is “not equal to”; ∄ is “there does not exist”; ∅ is
“empty set”; ∩ is “intersection”; ∪ is “union”; ⊂ is “subset”; is “implies”; ↔ is “if and only if ”; and ■
is “quod erat demonstrandum” or “QED,” which means “that which has been proven.”
3
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Thora laski poskensa hänen kutreillensa sulkien silmänsä.
Hiljainen onnen, autuaallisuuden hohde kirkasti koko hänen
olentonsa…
*****
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tulet omakseni — niin että minä tiedän sinun palanneen!
Samuel Stern kävi rauhattomaksi, sillä Thora oli niin kalpea. Hän
veti varovasti pienen vaipan hänen ympärilleen.
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