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Hybrid Deep Learning and Quantum Inspired Neural Networ - 2024 - Expert Systems
Hybrid Deep Learning and Quantum Inspired Neural Networ - 2024 - Expert Systems
A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T
Keywords: Wind is an essential, clean and sustainable renewable source of energy; however, wind speed is stochastic and
Deep learning intermittent. Accurate wind power generation forecasts are required to ensure that power generation can be
Quantum computing scheduled economically and securely. This work proposes a hybrid deep learning technique that incorporates a
Quantum-inspired network
quantum-inspired neural network to predict wind speeds 24 h in advance. An innovative neural network tech
Spatiotemporal data
Wind speed forecasting
nique is implemented by cascading parallel convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with a long short-term
memory (LSTM) and a quantum-inspired neural network (QINN). The proposed hybrid model is optimized
using two iterative loops: the outer loop is implemented by using quantum particle swarm optimization (QPSO)
to tune the structure of model and other hyperparameters/parameters. The inner loop uses an Adam optimizer to
tune the weights and biases of the proposed model. Spatiotemporal wind speeds at various locations provide the
2D input data. Simulation results reveal that the proposed method outperforms other methods for 24 h-ahead
wind speed forecasting.
1. Introduction energy trading; and long-term forecasts are used to optimize unit
commitment (Wang et al., 2021).
Reducing carbon dioxide emissions has become extremely important The three types of wind speed forecasting models that have been
as part of achieving the sustainable development goals (SDG) (particu proposed in the literature are physical approaches, statistical methods
larly goals 7 and 13) that were aggreed by members of the United Na and artificial intelligence (AI)-based models (Zhang et al., 2019). These
tions. To achieve these goals, a rapid transition from fossil fuel are detailed below.
consumption, which contributes to climate change, must be made. Wind
energy is an integral part of this effective environmental and energy (1) Physical approaches to wind forecasting include numerical
solution (IRENA, 2019). Wind is varying and intermittent, complicating weather prediction (NWP) (Xu et al., 2015; Buhan et al., 2016).
the operation of power systems, and particularly unit commitment and NWP solves dynamics and physics equations that express the
the scheduling of day-ahead generation. Developing highly accurate movements and variations of the atmosphere. Generally, super
forecasts of renewable energy output may significantly minimize the computers are required to solve the complicated NWP equations.
risk of power system failures (Wang et al., 2018; Yang et al., 2020; Wu NWP is suitable for long-term wind speed forecasting.
et al., 2022). (2) Statistical methods that are used to forecast wind energy gener
Wind speed forecast models can be categorized into very-short-term ation include probabilistic forecasting (Heng et al., 2022), poly
(a few seconds to 30 min in advance), short-term (30 min to 6 h in nomial autoregressive modeling (Karakuş et al., 2017), and
advance), medium-term (6 h to 1 day in advance), and long-term (1 day sparse Bayesian learning (Wang et al., 2019). However, these
to 1 week or more in advance). Very-short-term forecasts are used to techniques do not have adaptive or learning capabilities.
control turbines and track loads in real time; short-term forecasts are (3) The most popular methods for wind power/speed forecasting that
used to plan load dispatch; medium-term forecasts are used to schedule are based on AI are machine learning and deep learning. Ahmadi
traditional power generation to satisfy the load demand and enable et al. (2020) presented a tree-based XGBoost algorithm to train
* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: yyhong@ee.cycu.edu.tw (Y.-Y. Hong), g11002803@cycu.edu.tw (C.L.P.P. Rioflorido), mszhangwn@shiep.edu.cn (W. Zhang).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2023.122645
Received 9 June 2023; Received in revised form 15 November 2023; Accepted 15 November 2023
Available online 22 November 2023
0957-4174/© 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Y.-Y. Hong et al. Expert Systems With Applications 241 (2024) 122645
model using the mean and standard deviation of wind speeds problems (Li et al., 2019; Liu et al., 2019; Fallahi and Taghadosi, 2022;
measured at a height of 40 m. Zhang et al. (2015) used the Deep Kuranga and Pillay, 2022).
Boltzmann Machine (DBM), pretrained by the greedy algorithm This work presents a hybrid deep learning and quantum-inspired
and then fine-tuned by the back-propagation algorithm, to study neural network to improve the accuracy of the 24-hour ahead wind
several minutes- to days-ahead wind speed forecasting. Nair et al. speed forecasting. Two aspects of quantum-inspired computing are used.
(2017) firstly handled the linear features of raw wind speed These are (i) a Quantum-Inspired Neural Network (QINN) incorporating
datasets by the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average deep-learning networks and (ii) a variant of particle swarm optimization
(ARIMA) and then used Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to (PSO), called quantum PSO (QPSO), which is used to optimize the
perform nonlinear mapping. Sun et al. (2020) used variational hybrid deep learning (CNN in conjunction with LSTM) and QINN. The
mode decomposition (VMD) to excavate implicit information in contributions of this paper can be summarized as follows.
original wind speed datasets and then used the random forest to
select the suitable inputs; they subsequently used various AI 1) A novel hybrid deep-learning and QINN is presented to perform 24-
techniques, such as Generalized Regression Neural Networks hour-ahead wind speed forecasting. The deep-learning network
(GRNN), to generate forecasts. Araya et al. (2020) used dense consists of parallel CNNs cascading with LSTM. The parallel CNNs
layers of a neural network to build sub-sequences of wind speed extract the wind speed features from the spatiotemporal data, while
data with various timescales which were used as inputs to mul the LSTM interprets those features.
tiple Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM-M) to conduct 24 h-ahead 2) Historical geographic (spatial) and temporal data from three ancil
forecasting. Zhu et al. (2020) consolidated a unified framework lary locations and one target location are used to generate the 2D
integrated Convolutional Neural Network (CNN, which selects dataset used in the proposed method, which does not require addi
spatial feature) with LSTM (which processes temporal depen tional signal pre-processing.
dence) to conduct wind speed forecasting. Wang et al. (2020) 3) To determine the number of dimensions of the 2D data, a maximum
used CNN to carry out short-term wind speed forecasting, using cross-correlation analysis is performed to account for the maximum
information from neighboring wind farms. These methods do not time lag of ancillary locations to be used as inputs with respect to the
require a predetermined mathematical model and can handle target location.
multiple inputs and outputs, and can extract the relevant features 4) The QPSO is used to determine the structural parameters and
of data. hyperparameters of the CNN, LSTM, and QINN simultaneously. This
QPSO keeps the swarm particles from converging prematurely and
Artificial intelligence is the most popular basis for forecasting wind becoming trapped at local optima.
speed; however, related methods have some limitations as follows. 5) The proposed method introduces a novel approach by replacing the
traditional fully-connected layer in a CNN with a QINN, leveraging
(1) The accuracy of regression results that are obtained by tree-based complex-number weights to enhance accuracy and expand the search
machine learning algorithms depends on the split criterion dimensionality of the neural network. This innovative technique, to
(Ahmadi et al., 2020), which must be set by trial-and-error. the best of the authors’ knowledge, marks the first application of a
(2) Only a supervised learning algorithm is implemented without QINN in 24-hour-ahead forecasting, surpassing the performance of
extracting features from datasets, resulting in long training time the conventional fully-connected layer with real-number weights.
(Zhang et al., 2015) and probably low accuracy (Ahmadi et al.,
2020; Zhang et al., 2015). This paper is organized as follows. Section 2 provides the theoretical
(3) Only temporal dependence is considered and the spatial corre background of the CNN, LSTM, PSO, and quantum computing. Section 3
lation of wind characteristics is ignored (Ahmadi et al., 2020; elucidates the proposed method with the QPSO, QINN, and network
Zhang et al., 2015; Nair et al., 2017; Sun et al., 2020; Araya et al., architecture. Section 4 presents comparative results that are obtained
2020). using the proposed method and the methods in the literature. Section 5
(4) Data pre-processing (such as by using ARIMA or VMD) is required draws conclusions.
(Nair et al., 2017; Sun et al., 2020).
(5) The hyperparameters/parameters of machine/deep learning 2. Theoretical background
models are set to fix the structure of predictive model, based on
experiences (Zhang et al., 2015; Nair et al., 2017; Sun et al., 2020; 2.1. Multi-Step spatiotemporal forecasting
Araya et al., 2020; Zhu et al., 2020;Wang et al., 2020).
Multi-step spatiotemporal forecasting presents a complex computa
Whereas various techniques for doing computational learning are tional challenge that has garnered significant academic interest in recent
readily available, quantum computing represents a paradigm shift in times. This specialized forecasting approach is primarily focused on
computing technologies. Several quantum algorithms are believed to accurately predicting future states of variables over various spatial lo
solve problems more efficiently than classical approaches, motivating cations and time periods. It takes into careful consideration the intricate
the use of quantum computing herein. The developers of classical al spatial and temporal dependencies within the data. This forecasting
gorithms and quantum algorithms can exploit the strengths of both sets technique has found applications across a wide spectrum of fields,
of algorithms and thereby deepen our understanding of computational including but not limited to its use in forecasting sea temperatures (Kim
limitation (Nielsen and Chuang, 2011). The research landscape has seen et al., 2023), predicting traffic patterns (Ta et al., 2022), and estimating
the development of various quantum-inspired neural networks (QINNs) renewable energy generation (Chai et al., 2020; Zhu et al., 2020).
in response to a wide range of computational challenges. These QINNs This paper utilizes the multi-horizon spatiotemporal forecasting
have been explored and refined in multiple studies (Ganjefar and framework to improve the accuracy of wind speed predictions. The
Tofighi, 2018; Konar et al., 2020; Patel et al., 2021; Yan et al., 2021; Shi methodology presented in this paper delves into the complexities of this
et al., 2022). These endeavors highlight the significant potential and forecasting approach with the goal of enhancing the precision and
value that quantum-inspired design principles bring to the realm of dependability of wind speed forecasts. This contributes to the reliability
neural networks. On the other hand, Quantum Particle Swarm Optimi of forecasting models used in the wind energy sector and related fields.
zation has emerged as a robust strategy for optimization tasks, drawing In this study, historical data from specific locations in China, the
inspiration from quantum principles. It excels in navigating complex Philippines, and Taiwan are utilized to forecast wind speeds 24 h ahead
parameter spaces and finding optimal solutions for diverse optimization at a target wind farm in Taiwan.
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Y.-Y. Hong et al. Expert Systems With Applications 241 (2024) 122645
2.2. Convolutional neural network (CNN) Equations (3) and (4) involve determining what new information
will be stored in the cell state. First, it determines which values are to be
A typical convolutional neural network comprises of the input layer, updated by using a sigmoid function in Eq. (3). Then, the tanh function
the convolution layer, the pooling layer, and the fully connected (FC) generates a vector of new values, C ̃ t , in Eq. (4). To update the old cell
layer. The original input data are pre-processed into a one-dimensional state, Ct-1, into the new cell state, Eq. (5) is applied to yield a value that is
or multi-dimensional matrix in the forms of the input. The convolution stored in long-term memory, Ct.
operation is used to construct feature maps of input data (Wang et al., A sigmoid layer determines which parts of the cell state will be
2020). output as described by Eq. (6). Then the tanh function shifts the values of
The number of feature maps is determined by the number of cell state from − 1 to 1, and the output is again multiplied to yield a
convolution kernels, while the size of the feature maps is determined by sigmoid in Eq. (7). The symbol ot is the result that is applied to the
the size of the convolution kernels. The value at position (p,q) in the output gate. The forget gate, input gate, and output gate all follow the
feature map is calculated using Eq. (1): sigmoid function, which yields a value between zero and one, effectively
(
∑
Mr ∑ Mc
) providing the ability to control each gate. The special symbol “⊙” in
fmpq = σ w(p− r)(q− c) ζcr + bpq dicates element-wise multiplication.
r=1 c=1
3
Y.-Y. Hong et al. Expert Systems With Applications 241 (2024) 122645
when α and β are complex eigenstate coefficients and the squares of their where the δ enables the flipping of the phase information. The function
absolute values represent the probability of matching eigenstates under
f(x) can be expressed as eix , where the argument of f(x) is equal to − θ
measurements. They satisfy probability completeness:
when δ = 0 and 2π − θ when δ = 1.
‖α‖2 + ‖β‖2 = 1 (12)
3. Proposed method
Table 1
Target site and three other sites.
Names (label) Locations No. of Turbines Power (MW)
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Y.-Y. Hong et al. Expert Systems With Applications 241 (2024) 122645
Table 3
Characteristics of wind speed in Fuhai, Taiwan.
Season Mean (m/ Standard deviation Maximum (m/ Minimum (m/
s) (m/s) s) s)
Table 4
Time lag (h) obtained from maximum cross-correlations among locations.
Season L1 L2 L3 L4
Winter 25 25 25 71
Spring 25 25 25 70
Summer 25 95 25 47
Fall 25 45 97 47
r1 pid + r2 pgd
pd = (20)
r1 + r2
√̅̅̅
where g is a constant and g ≥ ln 2. If r3 > 0.5, then a “plus” sign is used
in Eq. (18); else, a “minus” sign is used (Wang et al., 2008; Sun et al.,
2004).
QPSO is as a powerful optimization method, notably employed for
the determination of structural parameters and hyperparameters of the
proposed neural network architectures, encompassing CNN, LSTM, and
QINN. QPSO holds several distinct advantages (Fallahi and Taghadosi,
2022):
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Y.-Y. Hong et al. Expert Systems With Applications 241 (2024) 122645
1) QPSO can search intricate, high-dimensional, and non-linear 3.4.2. Hidden neurons of QINN
parameter spaces, such as multiple layers, units, and hyper The hidden layer is a rotation layer implemented by CNOT gates. The
parameters in complex configurations of neural networks. CNOT gate R(θ) is defined as follows:
2) QPSO integrates quantum mechanics with swarm intelligence, (π ) {
cosθ − isinθ (δ = 0)
achieving a balance between the exploration of diverse configura R(θ) = f δ − θ = (24)
2 sinθ + icosθ (δ = 1)
tions and the exploitation of promising ones. This facilitates the
discovery of optimal settings for neural network designs. In Eq. (24), the parameter δ plays a pivotal role in the transformation
process. Specifically, when δ is set to 0, the input data undergo a
3.4. Quantum-Inspired neural network (QINN) transformation where their magnitudes remain unaltered, and the phase
information is effectively neutralized. In contrast, when δ equals 1, a
A QINN is based on the two concepts of quantum computing and significant alteration occurs: the real and imaginary components of the
artificial neural networks (Shi et al., 2022). Fig. 4 shows the proposed input data are interchanged, mirroring a bitwise operation akin to the
quantum-inspired network. flipping mechanism elucidated in Eq. (13). It is worth emphasizing that
the assignment of δ is not deterministic but rather stochastic, with its
3.4.1. Input neurons of QINN value for each hidden neuron being chosen randomly. This deliberate
The input to this network is a complex number that represents the randomness introduces a crucial element of exploration within the
eigenstate coefficients in Eq. (11). All neurons in the first layer include a model. By allowing δ to vary unpredictably, the model gains the capacity
function that multiplies 2π to the input. A 2π pulse sends |0〉→|0〉+i|1〉
√̅̅ to the to probe diverse transformations, enabling it to decipher intricate pat
2
terns within the data. This stochasticity serves as a strategic tool,
input layer. In this layer, the input scalar numbers xq1, xq2, …, xqM are
empowering the model to delve into multifaceted data nuances, ulti
rescaled into the range [0, 1], and multiplies by π/2 to yield the phase of
mately enhancing its ability to discern and learn intricate, non-linear
the complex input in the range [0, π/2].
patterns.
An arbitrary one-qubit state can be expressed as Eq. (11) based on the
Let the numbers of input and hidden neurons be M and N,
fundamental quantum principle of state superposition. The revised
respctively, m = 1, 2, …, M and n = 1, 2, …, N. Eq. (25) represents the
equation for a qubit state is defined in Eq. (14).
complex output of a hidden neuron:
Phase factors are ignored in Eq. (14) and the magnitude information
is incorporated as a complex number, yielding a qubit-inspired repre ∑
M
The block diagrams in Fig. 5 present the architecture for the pro
posed method. The input data are prepared as four columns (corre
sponding to four locations) of two-dimensional data, with a time lag (λ)
that is determined by maximum cross-correlation analysis.
Fig. 5 presents an example of the proposed model for the spring. The
three CNN layers in parallel, associated with average pooling layers, are
connected to an LSTM. The QINN, which consists of a rotation (hidden)
layer and a complex dense layer, is cascaded to the LSTM. Several
possible architectures are available for the CNN layer: (a) one CNN
layer, (b) two CNN layers, (c) two CNN layers connected in parallel, (d)
three CNN layers, and (e) three CNN layers connected in parallel. Any
one of these options is cascaded to the LSTM and the QINN, as deter
Fig. 4. Quantum-inspired neural network. mined by QPSO.
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Y.-Y. Hong et al. Expert Systems With Applications 241 (2024) 122645
The proposed method involves two iterative loops. QPSO optimizes used.
the architecture of the proposed hybrid deep learning with QINN, while
the ADAM optimizer tunes the weights and biases. ADAM, based on
4.1. Performance indices
adaptive estimates of lower-order moments, is an algorithm for first-
order gradient-based optimization to minimize an objective function.
Three performance indices are obtained using various seasonal data
QPSO is used to optimize the architecture, number of kernels, kernel size
and trials; they are the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute
and dropout value of CNN, the number of output units in LSTM, and the
Error (MAE), and R-Squared (R2). Let y, ̂ y and y be the forecasted values,
parameters of the QINN. An output of the QINN consists of 24 nodes that
the mean of the forecasted values and the actual values, respectively. Let
correspond to the forecasted wind speeds for the next 24 h.
K be the number of studied statistical data points, κ=1, 2, …, K. The
Table 5 presents a list of hyperparameters and parameters that can be
formulas for RMSE, MAE and R2 are given as follows.
used as elements in a particle, along with their respective limits. Filters 1
√̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
to 3 are allocated to three convolution layers, respectively, and they are √
√1 ∑ K
dependent on the structures mentioned earlier. The variables filter RMSE = √ (̂y κ − yκ )2 (28)
lengths 1 to 3 represent the kernel size, which specifies the height and K κ=1
width of the 2D convolution window. Dropout values are presented in
floating-point format, rounded to two decimal places. The LSTM unit 1 ∑K
MAE = y κ − yκ |
|̂ (29)
refers to the number of inner cells within the LSTM. The two QINN layers K κ=1
consist of the rotation layer and the complex dense layer, respectively.
The number of gates or units per layer in the QINN is optimized through SSE
R2 = 1 − (30)
the use of QPSO. The parameters for the neural architecture are deter SST
mined by QPSO.
∑ ∑
where SSE = y − y)2 and SST =
(̂ (y − y)2 .
4. Simulation results and discussions
4.2. PSO Comparison results
The proposed method was implemented in Python using the Keras
package with TensorFlow as the backend. A workstation that was used As mentioned in the preceding section, the proposed method in
to run the simulations had an Ubuntu 18 operating system with an Intel volves two iterative loops. The outer loop uses QPSO to optimize the
Core i7-11700 processor at 2.40 GHz and 47.0 GB of RAM. Two graphics architecture, number of kernels, kernel size and dropout value of the
cards (NVIDIA GeForce RTX 3080 Ti) with 10 GB of RAM each were CNN, number of output units in the LSTM, and parameters of the QINN.
This method finds the optimal solution using agents, known as particles,
Table 5 whose orbits are modified by using a stochastic and deterministic
Hyperparameters/parameters to be optimized and their limits. component. The second optimizer (inner loop) is the ADAM, which
Parameters Limits optimizes weights and biases.
Structure (a, b, c, d, e)
The performances of the basic PSO (BPSO) (Kennedy and Eberhart,
Filter 1 1, 2, …, 5 1995) and two PSO variants (Chaos PSO (CPSO) (Song et al., 2007) and
Filter 2 1, 2, …, 5 QPSO (Sun et al., 2004)) are compared by running the aforementioned
Filter 3 1, 2, …, 5 outer loop optimization. Each run has 50 iterations and MAE is used as a
Filter Length 1 1 × 1, 2 × 2, …, 5 × 5
fitness function. For all seasons, the number of particles is 35.
Filter Length 2 1 × 1, 2 × 2, …, 5 × 5
Filter Length 3 1 × 1, 2 × 2, …, 5 × 5 Tables 6 to 9 show the optimal hyperparameters/parameters that are
Dropout 0 ~ 0.50 obtained using three PSO algorithms for the four seasons. QPSO yields
LSTM Units 100, 101, …, 500 the lowest MAE, which is the fitness function of three PSO algorithms.
No. of gates in QINN Layer 1 100, 101, …, 500 Based on the results presented in these tables, QPSO dynamically adapts
No. of gates in QINN Layer 2 100, 101, …, 500
its hyperparameters and parameters for different seasons in order to
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Y.-Y. Hong et al. Expert Systems With Applications 241 (2024) 122645
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Y.-Y. Hong et al. Expert Systems With Applications 241 (2024) 122645
Table 11
Comparison of results for spring season.
Method MAE RMSE R2
Table 12
Comparison of results for summer season.
Method MAE RMSE R2
Table 13
Comparison of results for autumn season.
Method MAE RMSE R2
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Y.-Y. Hong et al. Expert Systems With Applications 241 (2024) 122645
season. This could be attributed to the presence of typhoons and the work reported in this paper.
generally low wind speeds in summer, which can be challenging to
predict accurately. Nevertheless, it’s noteworthy that the proposed Data availability
method continues to outperform other models even during this season,
which further underscores its effectiveness. Data will be made available on request.
The proposed method was compared with equivalent architectures
employing a fully connected layer (CNN-LSTM-FC) and a complex- Acknowledgements
valued neural network without quantum inspiration (CNN-LSTM-
CVNN) as a subsequent connection after the LSTM layer. As a result, the This work is sponsored by National Science and Technology Council,
proposed method continues to outperform these two models in terms of Taiwan, under the grant NSTC 112-2218-E-008-011 and NSTC 112-
MAE, RMSE, and R2. 2221-E-033-010-MY3.
In summary, the results presented in Tables 10-13 conclusively
demonstrate that the proposed method, bolstered by the QINN with References
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