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3.2. Case 3
3.2. Case 3
Buyback details
The company plans to buyback shares, for which Rs. 1000 has been allocated
For Forecast of the same, P/E multiple of the latest year will be used
The company's current market price is Rs. 83.45 per share
Valuation inputs
The fcfe growth rate of the company will transition to 2% p.a which represents the historic minimum growth rate o
The risk free rate applicable can be taken on the basis of historical T-Bill yield which stands at 6%
The risk premium applicable to the industry is 4% which will transition to 2% owing to expected saturation in the i
The company beta is expected to 1.5 which is expected to transition to 1
The transition period of the company is expected to be 4 years which is based on the life cycle of the peers
₹ 138,431
₹ 193,406
₹ 4,047
₹ 37,772 ₹ 37,925 ₹ 40,203 ₹ 42,617 ₹ 45,177 ₹ 47,891
11.27%
₹ 18,154 ₹ 20,000 ₹ 21,201 ₹ 22,475 ₹ 23,825 ₹ 25,256
5.42%
₹ 1,975
₹ 326
₹ 26 ₹0 ₹0 ₹0 ₹0 ₹0
₹ 62,300
₹ 44,070
₹ 3,009
₹ 7,862
₹ 54,941
₹ 4,034
₹ 67,281
₹ 4,850
₹ 76,165
₹ 193,406
Dec-18
₹ 13,510
₹ 5,048
Dec-21
₹ 3,633.08
₹ 5,000.00
₹ 326
1.22%
11.50%
0.77%
0.03%
Not to be ammortised
To be assumed as constant of latest year
to be used as plug
10.68%
5.63%
0.0300622694
Income Statement Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
Net Sales 6%
Other Operating Income 0.0686918 -0.018964 0.06869175
Depreciation 0.07384129
PPE
Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23
OP ₹ 112,324 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
Capex 14243.32 15098.784 16005.635 16966.9604 17986.0332
(-) Dep Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
Cls Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
Debt
Equity
No. of shares Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23
Op ₹ 2,017 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
(-) Buyback Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
Cls Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522
% of Cost of sales
% of Cost of sales
% of Cost of sales
% of Cost of sales
Ve Err:522
3. Perform Sensitivity analysis using data table with inputs sales growth rate and risk premium on output FCFE value
4. Perform scenario analysis with scenario Manager with inputs tax rate (40%) on output FCFE value
5. Perform Montecarlo simulation on the sales growth rate and assess its impact on the FCFE value
No S grate Firm value
6% Err:522
1 0.045418 Err:522 =NORM.INV(RAND(),$J$44,$J$45)
2 0.045809 Err:522 Mean
3 0.043381 Err:522 Std Dev
4 0.035862 Err:522
5 0.018872 Err:522
6 0.048617 Err:522
7 0.03754 Err:522 Avg Value Err:522
8 0.033846 Err:522
9 0.03083 Err:522
10 0.041519 Err:522
11 0.07215 Err:522
12 0.053618 Err:522
13 0.075247 Err:522
14 0.048715 Err:522
15 0.050926 Err:522
16 0.042686 Err:522
17 0.055479 Err:522
18 0.051622 Err:522
19 0.057947 Err:522
20 0.030228 Err:522
21 0.058005 Err:522
22 0.048597 Err:522
23 0.057541 Err:522
24 0.04258 Err:522
25 0.085241 Err:522
26 0.051501 Err:522
27 0.033039 Err:522
28 0.059596 Err:522
29 0.066318 Err:522
30 0.05082 Err:522
31 0.047083 Err:522
32 -0.006408 Err:522
33 0.042314 Err:522
34 0.036257 Err:522
35 0.024363 Err:522
36 0.043773 Err:522
37 0.075898 Err:522
38 0.029545 Err:522
39 0.039088 Err:522
40 0.050386 Err:522
41 0.030085 Err:522
42 0.059556 Err:522
43 0.023534 Err:522
44 0.046381 Err:522
45 0.045153 Err:522
46 0.014462 Err:522
47 0.042339 Err:522
48 0.05589 Err:522
49 0.054057 Err:522
50 0.034226 Err:522
Input
Dec-25 Dec-26 Dec-27 TY Sales g rate 6%
0.00 0.00 0.00 SGP g rate 2%
Rf 6%
Rp 4%
RP -SGP 2%
Beta 1.50
Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Beta - SGP 1.00
Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Err:522 Trans. Years 4.00
Tax rate 33%
1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00
3.20% 2.80% 2.40% 2.00%
10.16% 9.36% 8.64% 8.00%
Average Err:522
Income St Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18
Net Sales ₹ 405,132.00 ₹ 418,952.00 ₹ 443,854.00
0.034112339 0.05943879
0.0467756
0.0179085
Existing FCFE g rate Err:522
Factor FCFE Err:522 Reduction in g every year