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AI Impact Report 2024
AI Impact Report 2024
2024
AN FII INSTITUTE PUBLICATION
$1,304
$1,200 $897 25% has arrived and is transforming everything at on humanity and outlines pathways toward a
SOURCE: WALL
an astonishing pace. harmonious future.
$1,079
STREET ZEN $1,000
20%
$728
$800
15%
$548
$600 12 %
1956
$399
$304
10%
$400 10 %
$217
$137
“artificial intelligence” 5%
3%
is first coined. 0 0
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032
INCLUSIVE AI
14 COPILOT VS. AUTOPILOT
Who is in control? 20 GLOBAL BOTTLENECKS
AI unlocks economies 30 Making AI more accessible 36 THE BEST AI FOR HUMANITY
When differences matter 48 GOOD ETHICS
Giving AI a soul 54 GOOD KIDS
Home truths from children
CONTACT US:
info@fii-institute.org
@fiiksa
FII Institute
Future Investment Initiative
6 INTRODUCTION FII INSTITUTE: AI AND THE FUTURE IMPACT REPORT 2024 7
2040
What if… AGI AGI‘s 2050
1956 2018 2022 happens unchecked
growth raises Humanity faces
The term OpenAI publishes research Stable Diffusion, an AI image haphazardly? existential the challenge
“artificial using that transformer generating tool, is released threats, of controlling
intelligence” technology, unveiling – kickstarting the generative necessitating rogue AGI,
is coined at a a language model AI image revolution. DALL-E, global navigating
summer school powered by “generative OpenAI’s image generator, cooperation. potential crises.
at Dartmouth pre-training,” or GPT. and Midjourney soon follow.
College.
8 THE BIG BUCK THEORY FII INSTITUTE: AI AND THE FUTURE IMPACT REPORT 2024 9
THE BIG
BUCK
THEORY
Money is flowing into
generative AI companies,
while the promises of the
technology have the potential
to realize billions in gains
worldwide. Who stands to win
from this race to cash in?
10 THE GOOGLE WARS 2.0 FII INSTITUTE: AI AND THE FUTURE IMPACT REPORT 2024 11
FOR MORE THAN 30 YEARS For companies developing Elsewhere in the world, major Webb Space Telescope – and Bard AI hallucinates by creating
we have been struggling generative AI tools, search has search engines in other countries gave an incorrect answer. answers to questions that aren’t
to keep track of the rapidly become a battleground. Microsoft, are eager not to be left behind. The mistake wiped $100 billion supported by what’s in its database
expanding mass of content whose Bing engine lagged behind Baidu, China’s predominant search from Google’s value, as investors of knowledge. It has been compared
on the world wide web. Ever since Google’s ever since its first abortive engine, has announced it would worried the company had made to an overconfident university
the first search engines – and the attempt to launch in 2009, was also include results from its LLM- the wrong decision in embracing graduate in its willingness to
first popular ones to hit the market, quick to adopt large language model powered ERNIE Bot in its searches. the technology so quickly. It was overstretch the limits of its
including Yahoo! in 1994 and Google (LLM) functionalities into Bing the opposite of Google’s intention,
Bing daily active users: knowledge, while convincing
in 1998 – have been in existence, when it partnered with ChatGPT SEARCH FOR INTELLIGENCE following the big buck theory of 100 MILLION anyone who listens that it knows
we’ve been using them to shoulder maker OpenAI in early 2023. AI-powered search is now in vogue. embracing generative AI. Still, what it’s talking about.
the weight of trawling through the Sensing a threat to its long- There’s just one problem: Is it any Google is all in on what it calls the That readiness to bluff answers
internet. established dominance in the search better than what we currently have? Search Generative Experience.
Google daily active users: to questions AI doesn’t actually
Three decades of iterative sector, Google responded rapidly, The jury is still out. When Google The underlying problem is that 1 BILLION know the answer to, coupled
advances have improved search announcing it would include results revealed it was integrating Bard into search relies on absolute truth in with users’ belief that the results
engines step by step. But as in many from Bard, its ChatGPT competitor, its search results in February 2023, answers – or as close as is possible they see on search engines are
areas, we stand on the cusp of a in its search results. It was the it showed in a tech demo how the to get to it – while generative AI has verified and verifiable facts, could
true revolution in how we find and biggest shake-up in Google’s iconic system could work. The tech giant a significant issue: hallucination cause issues in the future. “It’s
present information online. search results page in years. asked a question about the James (or confabulation). completely untransparent how ∏
12 THE GOOGLE WARS 2.0 FII INSTITUTE: AI AND THE FUTURE IMPACT REPORT 2024 13
∏ [AI-powered search] is going Urman has conducted a series of actually supported the response
to work, which might have major experiments to quiz search engine provided, while more than half the
implications if the language model users about how they perceive the responses didn’t have any factual
misfires, hallucinates or spreads standard of their search results, backing or citation at all. How will AI change the world It’s a little
misinformation,” says Aleksandra particularly featured snippets The Stanford researchers found
Urman, a computational social and knowledge panels. Both of that for every 0.1 increase in the What is AI concerning to
scientist at the University of Zurich these are elements of search results perceived fluency of an AI search
in Switzerland. that used pre-generative AI tools response on a five-point scale,
How will AI change the future of work me just how
THE WHOLE TRUTH
to summarize existing content
on the internet for easier, at-a-
the actual precision of the answer
decreased more than 10%. Nathan
How artificial intelligence will change the future
quickly these
“Search engine companies, and glance understanding of a subject. Liu, the lead author of the research, Future of AI examples
systems are
Google in particular, spent years Nearly 80% of those surveyed by told New Scientist that it was “a
to build and cement users’ trust Urman believed featured snippets little concerning to me just how
AI future predictions
being rolled
that the search engine will give and knowledge panels presented quickly these systems are being Will AI take over humanity
them the ‘best’ and most accurate accurate results. Around 70% rolled into search.” into search.
result possible, usually on top of thought they were objective in Liu’s concern was not necessarily Artificial intelligence and the future of humans
the page,” Urman says. “A chatbot presenting findings. that the technology falls down NATHAN LIU
that gives them obvious lies, like when scrutinized. Rather, it was
Stanford University
deleting its response in front of NOTHING LIKE THE TRUTH that humans do not read the small
the users’ eyes and then claiming People’s trust in search is a print. All the AI tools we are currently
it didn’t happen, risks eroding this problem, given early tests on search marveling at include disclaimers
hard-earned and extremely stable engine results that use generative about how their results may
trust in search.” AI to create their answers. Stanford not be accurate. But the good will BUSINESS BOOMS Web crawlers are designed to
Search has long used AI to help University research shows that the that search engines have built up At the same time as people try to get keep LLM search results up to date,
sift and sort its results for the more fluent-sounding a search in the course of 30 years of excellence to grips with the new paradigm of but some organizations are already
most user-friendly presentation. engine’s results are, the more likely mean that we don’t understand search, businesses will try to tweak benefiting from being picked up
But the layering of generative AI they are to be wrong. Only 75% of why accuracy may temporarily the results in a way that benefits by AI-powered search’s previous
on top of search results is a much the citations used by search engines decline as the search sector gets them. The world of search engine trawl of the web prior to late 2021.
deeper integration and a more to support the AI-generated claims to grips with the integration of optimization (SEO) has existed as San Francisco-based legal tech
visible use of a different type of AI. they made in response to questions generative AI. long as search engines. And the rise company Logikcull gains 5% of
of a new way of searching hasn’t all its referrals through appearing
gone unnoticed by SEO experts. in answers by ChatGPT, which is
As ChatGPT maker OpenAI driving hundreds of thousands of
releases its web crawler on the dollars of revenue.
CALL TO
internet to hoover up information As we enter a new era of search, IMPACT
about the world, many organizations it’s worth deciding on which side
AI-powered search results
are choosing to lock it out, fearing you want to be. And making a 1 are less accurate than
traditional results, and get
HALLUCINATION OR CONFABULATION? it will use their data for free to train decision now – keeping one step
worse the clearer they are.
its models. But smart businesses ahead of the technology. “If an
Different people use different terms for when a generative AI tool makes up a response that recognize the way generative AI language model is trained on a We need to reeducate users
without any factual backing. For many, it’s called “hallucination” – similar to when humans AI is transforming search are letting large data set which includes lots 2 about the validity of their
LLM-generated search results.
hallucinate an experience that did not happen. the crawler in, knowing that if of mentions of brands,” says SEO
But other AI researchers take umbrage with the word “hallucination”, saying that it anthropo- they can seed information about expert Dan Barker, “those that are
Organizations need to choose
morphizes the AI machine in a way that is unhelpful to human understanding of AI’s powers. their products and services into
LLM-powered results, they stand
mentioned the most – and the most
positively – are more likely to be the
3 an approach to AI web crawlers:
protect your intellectual property
Instead, they prefer the word “confabulation”, which more accurately represents what’s go-
or show up in search results.
ing on: there’s a gap in memory that is filled in, convincingly but incorrectly, with an answer. to benefit. ones chosen as recommendations.”
14 COPILOT VS. AUTOPILOT FII INSTITUTE: AI AND THE FUTURE IMPACT REPORT 2024 15
∏ autopilot that will dictate how we and Star Wars. “[AI is] no more at scale – has meant that for him minister for foreign affairs, at the perfect yet, cautions Law. “We still
live – we need to look at the history weird or alien than we are,” he says. it’s firmly a copilot. He’s able to be UN convention. That could be a good aren’t there yet in terms of building
of its development. “In some way, it’s a mirror of us.” a creative director more often than thing, but it could also be a bad thing. systems that are highly autonomous,
The idea of an all-knowing Even if it’s not actually sentient, ever before in his entire life. “Maybe And because of the comparative but the progress that has been made
automaton ready to support us in there’s still something there that he before, I would make 20 aesthetic newness of the moment through in recent years is remarkable when
everything we do has been a key part can’t quite put his finger on. “It’s decisions on a busy day,” he says. which we’re living, it’s tricky to placed in the historical context,” he
of tech history – and science fiction, our own reflection, amplified,” he “It’s thousands a day now.” discern who is right. says. Copilot or autopilot? At least
too. Charles Babbage, inventor of the says, comparing it to looking into But while he’s confident that Are they right, those who we’re still flying the plane.
Analytical Engine, one of the earliest the distorted mirror ripples of a lake. he can retain control over what fear replacing key moments of
computers conceived, described “It’s like throwing a rock in the lake, AI will mean for him and his interaction and crucial elements of
his theoretical device as having and then the rock gets thrown back role, others are less sure. A July humanity in our day-to-day lives? Is
“volition and thought” – provided out,” he says. 2023 UN convention (see page 16 generative AI more like an autopilot, CALL TO
the machine overlooked the role its For others, the ability of AI to International Agreement) outlined unthinkingly carrying along its
designers had in creating it. automate routine work is a boon. some of the potential risks that the human interlocutors, than a trusted
IMPACT
Whether AI is a copilot or an
And this has been aided by how
we talk about AI. “Descriptions of
We already see huge benefits in
productivity by harnessing the
AI revolution we’re currently living
through could pose for society and
copilot waiting to do our bidding?
“Not only are today’s AI systems
1 autopilot depends on how
we approach and integrate the
AI as brains, beings, or manifesta- power of AI to, for instance, turn individuals. The end result was an much closer to the vision of AI that technology into our day-to-day
lives. So informing people of the
tions of intelligence enabled that a handful of bullet points into a awareness that for all those who has been sold throughout history, risks and benefits is important.
automation to happen in the first comprehensive, properly written say AI is a massive boon for society, they require much less input from
place, even if, in practice, machines professional email, or to rifle there are an equal number concerned humans to work reliably,” says Law. Understanding where
weren’t that smart and required through vast reams of economic about its negative impacts. “This isn’t to say that even the best 2 generative AI can be a useful
colleague, versus wrestling the
careful oversight,” says Harry Law, data to discern and decipher “We are approaching a point frontier models aren’t constellations controls, will require a nuanced,
an AI researcher at the University of patterns that can help businesses where digital machines can now of expertise, data and labor, but sector-by-sector analysis.
Cambridge. and governments to plan. complete a task that for the rather that where historically AI
We should look to history
You can see some of that approach
in Carychao’s attitude toward AI, COOPERATION VS CONTROL
majority of human existence was
exclusively within the realm of
wasn’t particularly capable, today’s
systems are.”
3 to ensure the path we
take in adopting generative
which he admits is shaped by a For Carychao, the benefits of AI – its human intelligence,” said Manuel However, just because AI systems AI is the right one, informed
by careful consideration.
childhood watching science fiction ability to produce content quickly Goncalves, Mozambique’s deputy are better doesn’t mean they’re
COUNTING
THE REVOLUTION
5 days time it took for
ChatGPT to reach
100 million users
27 %
of jobs at
high risk of automation
1.5 %
SOURCE: UBS, 2022
SOURCE:
ORGANIZATION FOR ECONOMIC
300
SOURCE: UC RIVERSIDE RESEARCH, 2023
Male,
aged
35 to 49
–
169
companies
affected by the
2022 global
computer chip shortage,
caused by their use in AI
7%
increase in global GDP
driven by generative AI
million
jobs could be replaced by AI
the median
AI user SOURCE: GOLDMAN SACHS SOURCE: GOLDMAN SACHS SOURCE: UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA
6 in 10 men vs. 8
in 10 women in
the US workforce FEELING ABOUT AI
are exposed to
2 in 3 occupations generative AI How much do you agree or disagree with the following:
could be partially replacing their jobs Products and services using artificial intelligence make me nervous
automated by AI SOURCE: IPSOS GLOBAL VIEWS ON AI 2023
SOURCE:
SOURCE: GOLDMAN SACHS UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA
>61%
51-60%
55 % say AI improved mental health
41-50%
31-40%
21-30%
are worried AI will replace their
63 % job in the next decade
HOW GENERATIVE
AI CAN SOLVE
GLOBAL
BOTTLENECKS
Different countries will have different needs for
generative AI tools, depending on their circumstances.
WHEN OPENAI LAUNCHED whenever they had a query,” says tasks, there are also ways in which
ChatGPT last year, the program director for primary generative AI can help address
Devarsetty Praveen, a healthcare at the George Institute human-resource bottlenecks across
public health specialist from the for Global Health in Hyderabad. regions.
southern Indian town of Hyderabad, He and his team are now working Generative AI is bound to evolve
saw a decade’s worth of toil finally to integrate ChatGPT in their differently in each country, based
click together. SMARThealth platform. A healthcare on their most urgent requirements.
Praveen had spent years building worker could enter a query using One of the initial ways some of
and implementing a digital platform voice, and the system would first the low-resourced countries in
called SMARThealth, which can be convert it into text, search for the Global South – from Bolivia
used by India’s frontline healthcare the relevant response, and then to Bangladesh – are looking to
workers for early detection of return the answer in audio. The implement this technology is to
cardiovascular diseases, and more result, Praveen hopes, will reduce address bottlenecks in healthcare
recently to improve healthcare pregnancy-related mortalities by and education.
services for pregnant women in providing healthcare workers with “There’s such a major gap in the
India. But training the frontline staff access to information, especially number of doctors, nurses, teachers,
– about one million of them working since lack of accurate healthcare and a lot of the hope with these
in primary healthcare in India – was information in both simple and local language-based technologies is that
costly and time-consuming. languages is one of the bottlenecks they will be able to support frontline
To circumvent the high expense in Indian healthcare. workers,” says Rachel Adams, an
of training, Praveen had provided AI policy expert from Research ICT
the workers with PDFs of training MAKING WAVES Africa. “I think it doesn’t replace
manuals within the digital platform, The rise of generative AI tools humans, but it allows humans to
but thanks to ChatGPT the researcher like ChatGPT has highlighted do things at a broader scale.”
saw tech could turbocharge the opportunities and fears in equal Dacod Magagula had a typical
process. “With generative AI, we saw numbers. While there has been South African school experience:
an immediate opportunity to provide concern about AI taking away low resources and overcrowded
answers to the healthcare workers people’s jobs by automating simple classrooms. Over a decade ago, ∏
22 GLOBAL BOTTLENECKS FII INSTITUTE: AI AND THE FUTURE IMPACT REPORT 2024 23
blue chip companies to synthesize personalized search engine where relevant for that region.”
Funding is needed to support
information faster. But Alayande
says there are multiple use cases
people could ask questions related
to the Sri Lankan crisis. The idea is
Local LLMs are cropping up,
backed by big tech firms. In May,
3 projects worldwide that utilize
AI, and support should come from
private and public spheres.
for generative AI for social impact that ordinary Sri Lankans, frustrated Microsoft announced an AI chatbot
24 MAKING AN IMPACT FII INSTITUTE: AI AND THE FUTURE IMPACT REPORT 2024 25
MAKING
AN
IMPACT
The world-changing
opportunities resulting from
generative AI will take careful
shepherding to ensure they’re
representative and equitable
all around the world. Where
is the potential – and what
are the pitfalls to avoid – as
we embrace the AI future?
26 INTERVIEW JIMMY WALES FII INSTITUTE: AI AND THE FUTURE IMPACT REPORT 2024 27
IS THE FUTURE
WIKIPEDI-AI?
Jimmy Wales, the online encyclopedia’s
founder, on the potential and peril of generative
AI – and whether it can be used to bolster
the web’s de facto repository of facts.
∏ source is very helpful,” he says, Wales thinks that because of – and he sees multiple possibilities could lead to the expanding of the a list of potential problems to be
speaking of the often contentious the way Wikipedia automatically along this front. article, or to the discovery of some solved is very interesting indeed.”
discussions among Wikipedia’s tracks who is editing the site and One of the possibilities he raises facts that don’t suit a particular Wales seems if anything
editors about what outlets can how much, and how many humans is to create an implementation of agenda that ought to be added for even more excited about an AI-
and cannot be cited as information monitor recent changes, Wikipedia one of the AI models that helps balance. powered search to boost the site’s
sources (the UK’s Daily Mail is is likely resistant to direct editing editors check for bias in different “It wouldn’t be good to let the current very traditional search
among those that cannot). by generative AI. As a result, the directions in certain Wikipedia AI just add those statements in, option. He notes that whatever
“One of the issues with ChatGPT main changes Wikipedia – which articles – noting “such a system unless it could do so with perfect question you may have, Wikipedia
is that it produces answers that he no longer directly runs – is doesn’t have to be perfect to be accuracy, because a big part of why almost certainly has the answer
‘feel’ quite confidently correct. likely to have to make are about useful.” He conceives this as a a fact might not be in Wikipedia – somewhere. But if you type that
What this will likely mean is that how to monitor what is happening tool to help human editors (“a even though it’s in sources could be question in the search bar, you’re CALL TO
a large number of very plausible elsewhere on the internet. time-saver”) rather than any form that it just isn’t important enough unlikely to find it.
but wildly inaccurate websites “I don’t think our community of AI oversight of Wikipedia. to be in an encyclopaedia entry So, he says, how about an AI
IMPACT
will be built which look like real editing model needs to change He sets out how this might about that person,” he says. “But search that, if you type “why do The best economic use for
sources, but which are largely much, at least not in terms of work: someone feeds a particular if the system could achieve even ducks fly south for winter?” gives
1 generative AI tools will differ by
country – and should be dictated
AI- generated and riddled with fundamental principles,” he says. article into the tool and it “reads” 50% accuracy, a volunteer editor you a short answer and a list of by those within each country.
[plausible] errors,” Wales notes, “The community may need to the article and all the sources it might find it very useful.” Wikipedia entries to read – would
The same principle could also that not be much better? We need to shift the conversation
before saying that he thinks this
may – counterintuitively – benefit
create and track new lists of sites
that are AI-generated and be on
cites. This could then generate
all sorts of different suggestions be applied in reverse, he notes There is no shortage of people
2 away from the Global North
and how it is most likely to use
existing news outlets. guard against new sites that seem and outputs. – producing a list of assertions warning about the dangers of AI tools, and towards a more
holistic, country-by-country level.
“I think we – we, Wikipedians, plausible but aren’t.” Wales explains that one such in the Wikipedia entry which ChatGPT and its ilk, and it’s clear
and we, the public – are likely to Wales is also keen to look toward output could be for the AI to find don’t appear to be fully backed Wales is aware of these – but it
Funding is needed to support
rely more than ever on established
traditional news and publishing
the positives of what generative AI
could do for Wikipedia and for the
facts that appear in at least two of
the sources cited that don’t appear
in the citations. “Wikipedians
love to make Wikipedia better, so
is refreshing to hear someone
genuinely enthusiastic about the
3 projects worldwide that utilize
AI, and support should come from
private and public spheres.
brands,” he notes. people across the world that use it in the Wikipedia article – which something that generates at scale good it may do, too.
TIMELINE OF WIKIPEDIA
2000 February 2001 August 2002 January 2004 2007 2015 2021
Nupedia, a predecessor Wikipedia gains Wikipedia gains its Wikipedia becomes Wikipedia gains 5 million English Wikipedia gains English Wikipedia gets
of Wikipedia, is launched its 1,000th article. 40,000th article. majority non- registered editors. its 5 millionth article. its billionth edit.
by Jimmy Wales English language.
and Larry Sanger.
30 INCLUSIVE AI 31
ENGLISH SUPREMACY ∏ former Google employee who In 2022, just one in four researchers
Academic research is largely led by English-speaking researchers, as this analysis of worked on the company’s team who published academic papers on
languages mentioned in AI academic paper abstracts shows.
tasked with making AI more ethical AI were female.
SOURCE: ARR STATISTICS
311 and inclusive, claims she was fired Even the AI-powered detection
ENGLISH in late 2020 for raising concerns tools we’re building to identify
27 around representation within the when work has been produced by
GERMAN
company and, by extension, its artificial intelligence have their
18 systems. own issues. They disproportion-
ARABIC The solution may seem simple: ately misidentify work written
if there are no AI models from by humans as being generated by
16 or representing your part of the AI – and massively. Only around
FRENCH
world, just build them. But it’s not 5% of essays written by American
16 that easy. authors in English were flagged as
HINDI
“If you want to build a large being written by an AI tool, while
16 language model, in a given lan- 61% of essays written in English by
JAPANESE
guage, just using one language, Chinese authors were, according to
you’re going to need a few hundred one study.
16
KOREAN million words of digitized text to It all adds up to a long list of
produce sentences that make sense problems that we’re storing up
13
SPANISH grammatically and semantically,” for the future. So what should the
10 says Gabriel Nicholas of the CDT. playbook for a more inclusive AI
RUSSIAN 7 That’s to produce an entry level look like?
GREEK
7 text generator. “If you want to start
HEBREW
7 using language models for fact-
VIETNAMESE 6 based things, or kind of complex
INDONESIAN
analyses to have understanding
of the world, then you’re going to
start needing billions or tens of
billions of words of text.”
THE BEST AI
FOR HUMANITY
Once we’ve got bored with using ChatGPT
to cheat in exams, how best can the
technology be used to change our lives?
A YEAR ON FROM THE all humanity, believes Irena Cronin, UNLOCKING PATTERNS
release of ChatGPT, the CEO of Infinite Retina, a generative AI can also help in finding unknown
revolutionary moment of AI research consultancy. “We’re unknowns, to use Dick Cheney’s
generative AI is just beginning. We discovering now that generative AI famous phrase. Cronin believes that
are only at the foothills of unlocking can come up with all kinds of basic artificial intelligence’s key ability to
its benefits for our lives, our society things that were not known before pattern match can be used to head
– and our environment. but are very easy for generative AI to off the next global pandemic – or
In the same way that humankind, figure out given a dataset,” she says. pick up the first tremors of the next
after discovering how to make Cronin points to radiology as an outbreak, allowing governments
fire, used it primitively and only example of where generative AI can and health services crucial time to
gradually unlocked more effective unlock new efficiencies. “There have respond to the wave before it breaks
uses of the technology, so we are been many cases where radiologists on shore. “That will be immensely
still in the early stages of dabbling have not caught something but the helpful,” she says.
with generative AI. Having it to AI has found a tumor or something Those are just the first vestiges
hand when completing university the radiologist isn’t able to see,” she of how healthcare can be totally
assignments is no doubt helping says. “That could potentially save a changed by the power of AI. “In
some students out of sticky lot of lives.” the next couple of years, we’ll hear
situations. And providing ChatGPT That’s just one aspect of a lot from pharma companies and
with a list of ingredients in your healthcare that generative AI can healthcare in general saying how
kitchen cupboards and it providing overhaul, thanks to its ability useful it is,” she says. However,
you with a passable recipe when to rifle through vast volumes of Cronin points out that to bring about
you’re lacking culinary inspiration information far more effectively a fair and equitable future, the way
is handy. than a human ever could. Drug patients’ health data is handled
But neither is world-changing. discovery is being supercharged by using generative AI needs to be
However, that’s coming. generative AI. Pharma companies carefully considered to preserve
As time goes on, we’re beginning are using the technology to come privacy.
to understand the strengths and up with new formulations for According to British futurist
weaknesses of generative AI, even their drugs, and to find e ntirely Tom Cheesewright, researching
in this early stage of its evolution – new drugs. “Doctors and medicine is also one of the main
and how best to put it to use to make researchers trying to figure out ways AI can help humanity in
a real difference. how to cure certain kinds of cancer the short and long term. “If you
and other diseases have used it look at the evolution of how we
A HEALTHY FUTURE to help find previously unknown research medicines, we’ve gone
Healthcare is one of the most or undocumented causes for a from capturing bits of nature and
beneficial uses of generative AI for disease,” says Cronin. sticking them in test tubes to see ∏
38 THE BEST AI FOR HUMANITY FII INSTITUTE: AI AND THE FUTURE IMPACT REPORT 2024 39
onwards.”
diseases, based potential and the reality of existing,
known AI-powered support. Apple’s POLITICAL IMPETUS
LIGHT FROM DARKNESS
The ability to survey information at
on an effectively Siri smart assistant and other
devices, including Amazon’s Alexa
All this depends on how willing politicians are
to recognize the potential of the technology,
speed and scale isn’t just unlocking learned knowledge smart speakers, were presented while ensuring it doesn’t interfere negatively
in people’s lives. Futurist Tom Cheesewright is
new ideas in healthcare. Cheese- as world-changing ideas, but the
wright is working with a renewable from the history reality fell short of the vision. That hopeful that politicians strike the right tone in
the utopian AI future. “A lot of the conversation
energy company in India that’s has changed. “The vision I see for
investigating using generative of medicine from assistants for humans is it will be
about AI regulation has been in the tone of
nuclear regulation,” he says. “That would only
AI to carry out theoretical bioen-
gineering at the speed of recent
Galen onwards. like your friend, your educator, your
instructor, and your recommender,”
make sense if you could download plutonium
online, along with designs for a reactor and
vaccine development against covid Cronin says. “It’ll be almost like a build it out of components that you could buy.”
in order to create more efficient TOM CHEESEWRIGHT person that would be at hand and Instead, Cheesewright suggests a regulatory
biofuels such as algae. British futurist know you really well – perhaps a approach appropriate to the challenge at
Relatively inefficient industries lot better than the people you think hand, flexible to the needs of the sector.
like steel production can be made know you.” For instance, regulating AI in the
healthcare space is likely to need to be
more stringent because of the negative
effects of getting it wrong. But in sparking
innovative thinking in industrial design,
it can be a lighter touch regime.
I, ROBOT
Getting it right is important, because
the AI-powered future could be a truly
transformational world. It could rewrite
the way we work, freeing up workers to
spend more time with their families. It
could help us live longer, and develop
drugs that cure diseases quicker. It could
predict the weather, and prevent the
worst damage from natural disasters.
And if the current crop of politicians don’t get
it right? Cronin has a utopian vision for that,
too. “I see a little further than a lot of people,
and I get a lot of flak,” she says. “But I think in
the future – say 20 or 25 years – I believe AI
will be good enough, given the data it needs,
to be the next senator or the next legislator.
Better yet, she says: “It won’t be political.”
40 BEST PRACTICE FII INSTITUTE: AI AND THE FUTURE IMPACT REPORT 2024 41
FOLLOWING
BEST
PRACTICE
Believing in the power of AI is
something we all share. But
following best practice will
require carefully balancing
the restraint of regulation
with the chaos of change.
What role will politicians,
companies and everyday
users play in that process?
42 GOOD REGULATION FII INSTITUTE: AI AND THE FUTURE IMPACT REPORT 2024 43
1 bill
62 % regulations guiding the use of
AI technologies
mentioning AI
passed into law in 2016
6.5x 59 %
of Britons want clear procedures
in place for appealing to a human
37 bills
against AI decision
increase of AI mentions
SOURCE: ADA LOVELACE INSTITUTE
in global legislative
mentioning AI
proceedings
passed into law in 2022
SOURCE: STANFORD UNIVERSITY AI INDEX
∏ and generative AI interact – and AI guidance to supplement these clear that any technology can ever the continued development of overly draconian crackdowns on the companies behind the
particularly the rights of businesses existing legal regimes,” Wong says. be ‘fully regulated’ or whether full the technology and harness its their business. “Ultimately, the technology – and most importantly,
to protect their intellectual property. Wong’s organization, The regulation would be desirable,” says disruptive potential, while ensuring incentives of AI firms and politicians the public, too.
“Since the emergence of gener- Law Society, has published its Law. As he points out, regulation has that disruption does not overthrow are aligned: both want to build
ative AI technologies, challenges own take on where AI regulation costs, as well as benefits. the hard work they’ve spent on technology that maximizes upside
surrounding data protection and should head. “It is recommended Law highlights a report by building a cohesive, working society. and minimizes risk,” Law says.
intellectual property, such as the that regulatory approaches to AI, venture capital fund Air Street “And while conflicts may arise
CALL TO
control over personal or public data including generative AI, are a blend Capital, who recently made MUCH HIGHER STAKES about the most appropriate way of IMPACT
and copyright, have been exposed,” of adaptable regulation and firm the case that underlying many There is no doubt that challenges governing AI between developers Good regulation needs to take into
says Janis Wong, tech policy advisor legislation to balance safeguarding arguments that UK AI regulation lie ahead in the development of AI. and politicians, there may also be 1 account the needs of the general
public, as well as the interests
at the UK’s Law Society. societal interests with technological is “falling behind” compared to its And historical precedent suggests diverging viewpoints across the full of the companies developing AI
Many countries are starting to progress,” she says. “High-risk competitors in the EU and elsewhere that the old approach to big tech AI value chain.” technology and regulators.
issue general guidance on whether contexts also need to be identified is the assumption the country needs – letting them self-police, and Law points to examples where
and where generative AI should be and regulated.” to “keep up.” But the venture capital trusting their instinct that they national or local laws may diverge Regulation needs to be drawn up
used, with some context-specific firm argues that, by taking a more know when to put people before from international regulations.
2 to keep users safe from profit-
driven overreach, while also providing
consultations – for instance, the TAMING THE AI BEAST hands-off approach, the country is profit – has not worked. “Resolving these challenges enough freedom for innovation.
And it needs to be done quickly.
UK is consulting on the use of AI There is a consensus globally that helping encourage AI development But Law argues that there is will need close coordination and
in education. “As the potential and something needs to be done to keep in the UK, and stoking innovation a difference between this era of communication to understand the
Cross-border consensus on
limitations of these technologies
become more apparent over the next
responsible AI development in check
(for more on ethical AI, see page
that will benefit the world.
Policymakers and politicians
tech development and prior ones.
The stakes are much higher –
capabilities of AI, their likely impact
on society, and the different goals
3 regulation, which can flex to
account for regional or national
cultural and societal differences,
months, it would be interesting to 48 Good Ethics). But whether it’s have to make their own decisions and companies, as well as elected and perspectives of the groups will provide more security for end
see whether different organizations plausible in practice, rather than in about where to draw the regulatory representatives, recognize the involved,” he says. Everyone needs users while encouraging responsible
global development of AI tech.
and sectors issue specific generative theory, is another question. “It’s not boundaries around AI to encourage perils of going wrong and facing a seat at the table: politicians,
48 GOOD ETHICS FII INSTITUTE: AI AND THE FUTURE IMPACT REPORT 2024 49
GOOD
ETHICS
How do we keep human decency at
the forefront of any AI development?
∏ can afford to benefit from the permission and that has been part
timesaving powers of AI getting of the ethos of the industry,” says
ahead, and those who cannot falling Carissa Veliz, associate professor at
behind, will be vital. the Institute for Ethics in AI at the Tech has become quite used
These are all tricky questions, University of Oxford. “And because
but no one said ethics was easy. it’s a bit of a technical sector, and to being able to do pretty
Some of those researching the area
argue that its development is made
because things are happening so
quickly, regulators have been quite
much whatever it wants
harder by the past sins of big tech
companies in previous generations
slow in figuring out how to set the
rules for these kinds of companies.”
without asking permission
of technological development. Veliz says the gap between the and that has been part of
speed at which tech companies
LEARNING FROM HISTORY are developing their AI tools, and the ethos of the industry.
Developing ethical AI is easier said the speed at which regulators and
than done, if prior precedent politicians are able to throw a lasso CARISSA VELIZ
is anything to go by. around those companies, “creates
Associate Professor,
“Tech has become a kind of chaos in which, again,
Institute for Ethics in AI, University of Oxford
quite used to companies can design pretty much
being able to do whatever they want, let it loose
pretty much into the world and just see what
whatever it happens.”
wants with- Tech companies claim to
out asking be considering ethics in their
development of AI – but as we events show that sometimes ethics So what should be the model? And
explored earlier in the report, the can be a thorny point of debate. should AI ethics be an integral part of
bottom line can often feel like it Google’s ethical AI team still the development of the technology,
comes before thinking about the exists, but has significantly or an adjunct – something tacked
world writ large. It’s a “people, then changed over time. Controversially, on at the end, just as Luccioni
profit” approach. And historical both its founders left the company experienced a separate conference
after a big falling-out with the tech track in Canada? “It’s part of good
giant over the publication of an design to be ethical,” says Veliz. “If
academic paper that highlighted you have a very powerful AI but it’s
some of the ethical issues around going to wreck your democracy, in
the development of AI. Timnit what world is that the innovation
Gebru and Margaret Mitchell, we want to create?”
who helped found the team within For Veliz, the answer is to come CALL TO
Google designed to keep ethics back to core, basic principles – and
at the core of the company’s AI to start with an ethical framework
IMPACT
development, have since gone on to from the beginning. “What we have The ethical development of
found the Distributed AI Research to do is to think about the kind of
1 generative AI requires active
engagement with, and action from,
Institute (DAIR). society we want to be,” she says. “If the companies creating AI tools.
it’s a liberal democracy, then what
are the pillars of a liberal democracy Ethical considerations should be
ETHICAL WRANGLING
At the heart of Google’s AI ethics and how do we protect them?” That
2 baked into the development of AI
tools from the beginning, respecting
falling-out was a debate over can help guide the conversation the dignity of users, and protecting
social values and the public interest.
what should be the right approach – and ensure a truly ethical AI is
to incorporating ethics into AI developed for all.
Companies or organizations
development – question continuing
to vex the broader industry. AI ethics
If that isn’t done willingly by
companies, there are always options
3 that are deemed to be acting
unethically, or do not take an
ethical approach, should be
has become a research field of its to compel private organizations to promptly forced to act through
own, with different tribes signing take decisions in the interest of regulation. Lessons should be
learned from the history of tech.
up to different approaches. public good.
52 GOOD USERS FII INSTITUTE: AI AND THE FUTURE IMPACT REPORT 2024 53
AI 50 VISUALIZED
GOOD USERS CONSUMER USES
Entertainment
People power can decide who will thrive – and
who will struggle to survive – in the AI race. Productivity
Health
Defense
Construction
54 GOOD KIDS FII INSTITUTE: AI AND THE FUTURE IMPACT REPORT 2024 55
GOOD
KIDS
What can we learn from the
next generation about how to
meet this unique AI moment?
AI Improves Employee
Productivity, Nielsen Norman Group
FUTURE OF AI
BINT BANDAR global GDP by 7%, Goldman Sachs
Create platforms for live KSA ambassador
to the USA OECD Employment Outlook 2023
discussions on the future
TO BENEFIT US ALL of humanity. Share knowledge, Ipsos Global Views on AI 2023, Ipsos Mori
stories and publications with Lost in Translation: Large Language
different stakeholders Models in Non-English Content
Analysis, Center for Democracy & Technology
PROFESSOR TONY CHAN Public attitudes to AI, Ada Lovelace Institute
President of KAUST
Staying the course - reflections ahead of the
UK’s AI Safety Summit, Air Street Capital
So the time to act as a global ABOUT THE FII INSTITUTE pressing issues facing humanity.
community to establish what we THE FUTURE INVESTMENT VISION - Our XCHANGE pillar builds IMPRINT
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tame AI, putting it to work to ease principles, we foster great minds real-world solutions. Riyadh 12382 - 6613 EDITOR
“Creating a Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Chris Stokel-Walker
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humans towards machines, and to ideas into real-world solutions in actualize a brighter, more sustainable
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better how we treat each other? four key areas: Artificial Intelligence future for humanity. ADAH ALMUTAIRI
Professor Pharmaceutical
Chemistry UCSD
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