International Journal of Environmental Studies

ISSN: (Print) (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/genv20

Modelling land use/land cover changes prediction

using multi-layer perceptron neural network
(MLPNN): a case study in Makassar City, Indonesia

Andi Muhammad Yasser Hakim , Sumbangan Baja , Dorothea Agnes

Rampisela & Samsu Arif

To cite this article: Andi Muhammad Yasser Hakim , Sumbangan Baja , Dorothea Agnes
Rampisela & Samsu Arif (2020): Modelling land use/land cover changes prediction using multi-
layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN): a case study in Makassar City, Indonesia, International
Journal of Environmental Studies

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/00207233.2020.1804730

Published online: 14 Aug 2020.

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 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
https://doi.org/10.1080/00207233.2020.1804730

ARTICLE

Modelling land use/land cover changes prediction using

multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN): a case study
in Makassar City, Indonesia
Andi Muhammad Yasser Hakim a, Sumbangan Baja b
,
Dorothea Agnes Rampisela b and Samsu Arif c,d
a
Graduate School of Agricultural Science, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, Indonesia; bDepartment of Soil
Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, Indonesia; cDepartment of Physics, Faculty
of Mathematics and Natural Science, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, Indonesia; dCentre for Regional
Development and Spatial Information WITaRIS, Hasanuddin University, Makassar, Indonesia

ABSTRACT KEYWORDS
This study used Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Remote sensing; land cover
System (GIS) tools to produce a predictive model of land use/land change; MLPNN
cover changes in Makassar City by 2031. The model was based on
the classification of SPOT satellite images from 2006, 2011, and
2016 with an assessment of 10 driving factors. The Multi-Layer
Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN) method was run with the
Markov Chain model using the Business as Usual scenario. The
results predict that built-up areas will cover about 80% of the
total area of Makassar City by 2031. This research can inform
stakeholder decision-making in Makassar City.

Introduction
Urban landscapes are like an organism that constantly experiences dynamic changes.
They are influenced by the characteristics and behaviour of people living in the area. All
forms of human intervention altering the land in order to meet the needs of human life,
both materially and spiritually, can be considered as examples of land use/land cover
(LU/LC) change [1].
LU/LC changes are an inevitable consequence of development. Generally, these
changes occur because of population growth and the desire for a better quality of life.
These changes are also influenced by a combination of environmental, geographical, and
socio-economic factors [2,3], as well as institutional and policy factors [4]. There is often
a reciprocal relationship with feedback between the impacts of LU/LC changes and the
driving factors. These interactions can affect both micro- and macro-economic systems,
cause shifts in the social life system of the community and have significant impacts on the
environment of the region (e.g. in terms of climate change and carrying capacity).
Some researchers studying LU/LC change have concentrated on the analysis of driving
factors, such as population density, distance from road, distance from river, distance
from nearest city, distance from town centre (downtown area), distance from existing

CONTACT Andi Muhammad Yasser Hakim andiyasserpwk@gmail.com

© 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group

Published online 14 Aug 2020

2 A. M. Y. HAKIM ET AL.

built-up area, distance from existing agricultural area, distance from tourist sites (socio-
economic factors), and biophysical factors (elevation, slope, rock, type of soil) [3,5]. In
addition, factors found capable of driving LU/LC changes on certain levels include
environmental factors (e.g. temperature and rainfall), socio-economic factors (e.g.
Gross Domestic Product) [2], the presence of protected areas and disaster-prone areas
[5], organisational aspects and policies [6,7].
Researchers and decision-makers face challenges in assessing complex real-world phenom-
ena such as LU/LC change. One commonly adopted methodological approach is to simplify
the problem without losing the core substance, for example, through building models to
represent the key components driving a phenomenon. The phenomenon of LU/LC change
can be modelled through various methods, adapted to the type of output (result) required [8].
Remote sensing and GIS technology have been used in research on phenomena such
as urban sprawl [9], soil erosion [10–12], LU/LC [9,13], landslide [14], health risk [15],
land suitability [16], agricultural land system [17], water use efficiency [18], NDVI
[19,20], and many more. In particular, remote sensing and GIS technology have been
widely used in combination with the Neural Network method. This method is inspired by
mathematical modelling of the nerves in the human brain [21].
Among the many types of neural networks, the Feedforward Neural Network (FNN) is
a simple and frequently used method [22]. There are two FNN method types: Single-
Layer Perceptron (SLP) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). MLP has more than one
perceptron layer and allows better resolution of complex and non-linear problems than
does SLP [22]. Applications of the MLP method to date include predicting the perfor-
mance of waste stabilisation ponds [23], predicting water production [24], species
distribution modelling [25], detecting surface cracks [26], soil consolidation [27], pre-
dicting LU/LC changes [28–32], mapping land suitability [33], predicting agricultural
land fragmentation [34], predicting future plantation forest development [35].
There are indications of a disparity between population needs and the availability of
natural resources in Makassar. Economic growth in the Mamminasata National Strategic
Area (Makassar, Maros, Sungguminasa, and Takalar) has triggered an increase in the
population of Makassar which is the core urban area. This is reflected in the average
population growth rate of Makassar (1.39%) [36]. This condition could trigger the spread
of population and human activities, leading to uncontrolled suburban development in
the surrounding areas of Maros, Sungguminasa, and Takalar. This was the motive for
conducting research on LU/LC change in Makassar. The objective of this study was to
predict LU/LC changes in Makassar City by 2031 through modelling using remote
sensing and GIS coupled with the Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network method.
This combined methodology was applied to solve complex spatial issues in urban LU/
LC change; the aim being to produce predictions helpful for development planning. The
paper is organised as follows. In section 2 data and methodology are presented, section 3
is devoted to the discussion and results and section 4 concludes.

Data and methods

This study used satellite images from three time periods (2006, 2011, and 2016), analysed
as shown in the flow chart (Figure 1). The satellite images were first preprocessed and
classified using a supervised classification method before the MLPNN and Markov Chain
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES 3

Figure 1. Flow chart of the research method.

methods were run. The LU/LC changes between these three dates were assessed with 10
driving factors and then modelled to provide predictive LU/LC maps.

Research area
Makassar City is the capital of South Sulawesi Province (Figure 2), with an area of
175.77 km2 and a population of 1,469,601 [36]. The topography can be categorised as
lowland plain with elevations between 1 and 25 m above sea level [36]. Makassar is
a waterfront city; 8 of the 14 sub-districts are on the coast. The two main rivers flowing
through the city are the Tallo River and Jeneberang River.

Satellite data pre-processing

Pre-processing satellite imagery before the detection of the changing phenomenon is very
important to establish a direct relationship between the data obtained and biophysical
4 A. M. Y. HAKIM ET AL.

(a) (b)

Figure 2. Research area (a) South Sulawesi Province; (b) Makassar City.

Table 1. Satellite imageries data specifications.

Data Year of acquisition Resolution (m) Description Source
SPOT 4 2006 20 Multispectral (4-band, level A1) WITaRIS
SPOT 4 2011 20 Multispectral (4-band, level A1) LAPAN
SPOT 6/7 2016 6 Multispectral (4-bands, level Ortho) LAPAN

phenomena [37]. The type of satellite imagery used in this study was SPOT 4 imagery for
2006 (obtained from the Centre for Regional Development and Spatial Information/
WITaRIS of Hasanuddin University), SPOT 4 imagery for 2011 and SPOT 6/7 imagery
for 2016 (obtained from National Institute of Aeronautics and Space/LAPAN) (Table 1).
All three satellite images were processed for radiometric calibration, atmospheric correc-
tion, and geometric correction. Because the spatial resolution of the SPOT 4 multispectral
images for 2006 and 2011 (20 m) differed from that of the SPOT 6/7 image from 2016
(6 m), a pan-sharpening process was applied to the SPOT 4 images (2006 and 2011) in
order to adjust the resolution of the two multispectral images to that of their respective
panchromatic band (10 m).

LU/LC classification
The LU/LC classification stage was conducted in ArcGIS 10.5 software with a supervised
classification method based on visual digitisation (on-screen digitation) along with
auxiliary data, Makassar LU/LC shapefile in 2012. The shapefile was sourced from the
Indonesian Government Geospatial Information Agency (BIG) and obtained from
WITaRIS. The LU/LC classification was delineated into five classes [2,38,39] (Table 2).
Subsequently, the classification results were interpreted by ground-truthing using
high-resolution satellite imagery (Google Earth). The Random Sampling technique
used 50 samples for each LU/LC type (class), based on the multinomial distribution
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES 5

Table 2. LU/LC classification.

Sample Sample
Class name point image* Description
Agriculture 50 points Paddy field, farm field
area
Built-up area 50 points Residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, roads, mixed urban

Waterbody 50 points River, sea, open water, lakes, ponds, and reservoirs

Barren area 50 points Land areas of exposed soil and barren area influenced by the human
impact
Vegetation 50 points Mixed forest land, grassland

*Sample images were obtained from SPOT 6/7 of Makassar

[40]. The LU/LC classification results were tested using a confusion matrix that produced
Kappa values. The use of Kappa is more reliable than a simple percentage agreement
calculation because it considers chance agreement [41]. The Kappa formula used was:
PðAÞ PðEÞ
K¼ (1)
1 PðEÞ
where P (A) represents the agreement of noticeable relativity of two maps and P (E)
represents the probability of a hypothetical agreement caused by chance [41]. There
are four Kappa value levels: weak match (less than 0.4); moderate match (0.4–0.6);
strong match (between 0.6 and 0.8); and very strong match (more than 0.8) [29,41].

Modelling LU/LC prediction

The final stage of this research was the prediction of LU/LC changes of Makassar in 2031
using the Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN) method. This method was
applied in the Land Change Modeller (LCM) module in TerrSet 18.31 software. In the
LCM module, there are three important stages when running the MLPNN method:
Change Analysis, Transition Potential, and Change Prediction.

Change analysis
In this section, the LU/LC maps (2006, 2011 and 2016) were included in the Change
Analysis tab to determine the extent and trends of LU/LC changes over the two time
periods (2006–2011 and 2011–2016). Large LU/LC changes were obtained using the
CROSSTAB method.

Transition potential
This study used 10 driving factors (obtained from WITaRIS). These were: distance from
Central Business District (CBD); distance from downtown; distance from education
facility; distance from health facility; distance from river; distance from road; distance
from sea; elevation; population density per pixel; and slope (Table 3).
At this stage, analysis of the transition structure of the sub-model was conducted
simultaneously with the driving factors of LU/LC changes (Figure 3). The distance map
6 A. M. Y. HAKIM ET AL.

Table 3. Driving factors description.

Data Classifying Method Role Description
Distance from CBD (m) Euclidean Distance Static 10 malls and 19 markets
Distance from downtown Euclidean Distance Static Karebosi field
(m)
Distance from education Euclidean Distance Static 62 campuses
facility (m)
Distance from health Euclidean Distance Static 44 hospitals
facility (m)
Distance from river (m) Euclidean Distance Static Start from the edge of Tallo River and Jeneberang
River
Distance from road (m) Euclidean Distance Dynamic Primary, secondary, and tertiary road type
Distance from sea (m) Euclidean Distance Static Start from beach line in the west of Makassar
Elevation (m) Ranked Static DEMNAS (downloaded from www.tides.big.go.id)
Population density per Euclidean Distance and Dynamic Proportion of population pattern → population
pixel then Ranked density per pixel pattern
Slope (%) Ranked Static Converted from DEM data to slope

of the seven driving factors was analysed by running the DISTANCE module. The
distance was calculated using the actual Euclidean distance from one object to the closest
object [42]. The elevation map was obtained from Digital Elevation Model data of
Indonesia (DEMNAS). The slope map was made by running the SLOPE module,
comparing the height of the actual location with the height of the neighbouring location
on the elevation map [42].
The population density map was produced by running the IMAGE CALCULATE
module, with the assumption that the population spreads circularly with a radius of 2 km
and the population will increase around the centre of spread [43]. The population density
(per pixel) was calculated using the proportion formula as follows:
P ¼ 0:2402 � expð 0:9464�ðdistance to settlement mapÞ=1000Þ (2)
where distance to settlement is in metres. The map of population density per pixel was
made using the formula:
Kp ¼ ρ � A � P � C (3)
where Kp: population density per pixel map
p: population density non-spatial (population/km2)
A: area of population distribution (km2) = 3.14 * (2 km)2 = 12.56 km2
P: population proportion map
C: conversion factor, from 1 km2 to 1 pixel
The driving factors were tested for correlation using the Cramer’s Coefficient or
Cramer’s V method. Cramer’s V is a statistic that converts chi-square to a range of
0–1, where the unit value shows the complete agreement between two nominal variables
[44]. The formula is:
sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
x2
V¼ (4)
N ðm 1Þ

where x2: chi-square

N: population
m: number of columns or rows in the table
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES 7

(a) (b)

(c) (d)

(e) (f)

Figure 3. Driving factor maps: (a) distance from CBD, (b) distance from downtown, (c) distance from
education facility, (d) distance from health facility, (e) distance from river, (f) distance from road, (g)
distance from sea, (h) population density per pixel, (i) elevation, (j) slope.
8 A. M. Y. HAKIM ET AL.

(g) (h)

(i) (j)

Figure 3. (Continued).

A higher Cramer’s V value (more than 0.15) shows that the explanatory value of the
factor is potentially good or useful. Conversely, a V value of less than 0.15 indicates that
the explanatory value of the factor is poor and can be rejected [28,42,44]. At this stage, the
static and dynamic driving factors were determined. Driving factors with static char-
acteristics do not change over time whereas dynamic driving factors can change over
time because of anthropogenic effects [42]. In this study, distance from road and
population density per pixel were categorised as dynamic, and the remaining factors
were categorised as static.
This study applied the MLPNN method. The method produces two classification
categories, namely hard and soft. The discrete layer could be created by hard classifica-
tion where the layer has a definitive category [33]. To run this method, five training
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES 9

parameters were set: start learning rate; end learning rate; momentum factor; sigmoid
constant a; and stopping criteria (Root Mean Square/RMS error, iterations, and accuracy
rate).

Change prediction
The LU/LC changes in 2016 were predicted by running the Markov Chain model. This
model can be used to predict LU/LC changes between two periods using a stochastic
process [45]. This Markovian process shows that the system state in the second year (t2)
can be predicted by the system state in the first year (t1), producing a transition prob-
ability matrix between classes [42]. This model is automatically included in the Change
Prediction tab. The 2016 LU/LC prediction map produced was then validated with the
actual 2016 LU/LC map by looking at the Kappa value. If the Kappa value was with the
range specified in the standard, then future LU/LC changes could be predicted, specifi-
cally for the year 2031.
There are several scenarios that could be used to predict LU/LC changes, including
Business as Usual (BAU) [44], Forest Conservation and Water Protection (FCWP) and
Sustainable Intensification (SI) scenarios [46]. This research used the ‘BAU’ scenario with
changes that have occurred based on historical trends and ‘no conversion from built-up
area to other LU/LC’ scenario assumption. This assumption was based on the position of
Makassar as the capital city of the South Sulawesi Province where the need for built-up
areas will increase with population growth through the subsequent years.

Results and discussion

This section is divided into four parts: (i) classification and accuracy assessment of the
LU/LC (Table 4); (ii) change analysis of LU/LC; (iii) LU/LC 2016 prediction; and (iv) LU/
LC 2031 prediction.

Classification and accuracy assessment

The LU/LC map (Figure 4) was classified into five classes using a supervised classification
method. Kappa values of three LU/LC maps (2006, 2011, 2016) obtained from the
confusion matrix were 0.82, 0.83, and 0.89, respectively, as shown in Table 4. All kappa
values were above 0.80, indicating that the match values were very strong, and therefore
all LU/LC maps could be used in modelling LU/LC change to produce an LU/LC
prediction for the year 2031.

Table 4. Accuracy assessment of LU/LC classification maps.

2006 2011 2016
LU/LC Class Producer User Producer User Producer User
Agriculture Area 80.00% 78.43% 84.00% 82.35% 86.00% 87.76%
Built-Up Area 82.00% 89.13% 92.00% 90.20% 92.00% 95.83%
Waterbody 78.00% 82.98% 82.00% 83.67% 88.00% 86.27%
Barren Area 86.00% 84.31% 78.00% 79.59% 90.00% 90.00%
Vegetation 90.00% 81.82% 82.00% 85.42% 92.00% 88.46%
Overall accuracy 83.20% 84.27% 89.60%
Kappa 0.82 0.83 0.89
10 A. M. Y. HAKIM ET AL.

Figure 4. LU/LC maps (2006, 2011, 2016).

LU/LC change analysis

The areas for each LU/LC class (Table 5) show that the extent of built-up areas increased
over time, from 7,849 ha in 2006 to 9,604 ha in 2011 (9.99% increase) and 10,294 ha in
2016 (3.93% increase). Meanwhile, from 2006 to 2016 there were also changes in the
other four LU/LC classes: agricultural land (10.32%); waterbody (2.09%); barren land
(0.89%); and vegetation (0.61%).
The CROSSTAB results (Table 5) show that agriculture area experienced the highest
proportion of land conversion to built-up area with 1,326 ha in 2006–2011 and 496 ha in
2011–2016. There was no land converted to the waterbody or vegetation categories.
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES 11

Table 5. Comparison of LU/LC for 2006–2011 and 2011–2016 (ha and %).
LU/LC 2011 ha (%)
LU/LC 2006 Agriculture
ha (%) Area Built-Up Area Waterbody Barren Area Vegetation Total
Agriculture 4,648 (26.44%) 1,326 (7.54%) 0 (0%) 127 (0.72%) 0 (0%) 6,101 (34.71%)
Area
Built-Up Area 0 (0%) 7,849 (44.65%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 7,849 (44.65%)
Waterbody 39 (0.22%) 86 (0.49%) 2,079 (11.83%) 161 (0.92%) 0 (0%) 2,365 (13.46%)
Barren Area 27 (0.15%) 301 (1.71%) 0 (0%) 543 (3.09%) 0 (0%) 871 (4.96%)
Vegetation 12 (0.07%) 42 (0.24%) 0 (0%) 23 (0.13%) 314 (1.79%) 391 (2.22%)
Total 4,726 (26.89%) 9,604 (54.64%) 2,079 854 314 17,577 (100%)
(11.83%) (4.86%) (1.79%)
LU/LC 2016 ha (%)
LU/LC 2011 Agriculture
ha (%) Area Built-Up Area Waterbody Barren Area Vegetation Total
Agriculture 4,217 (23.99%) 496 (2.82%) 0 (0%) 13 (0.07%) 0 (0%) 4,726 (26.89%)
Area
Built-Up Area 0 (0%) 9,604 (54.64%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 9,604 (54.64%)
Waterbody 24 (0.14%) 43 (0.24%) 1,998 (11.37%) 14 (0.08%) 0 (0%) 2,079 (11.83%)
Barren Area 46 (0.26%) 120 (0.68%) 0 (0%) 688 (3.91%) 0 (0%) 854 (4.86%)
Vegetation 0 (0%) 31 (0.18%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 283 (1.61%) 314 (1.79%)
Total 4,287 (24.39%) 10,294 1,998 715 283 17,577 (100%)
(58.57%) (11.37%) (4.07%) (1.61%)

LU/LC 2016 prediction

This section is divided into four stages to predict LU/LC in 2016: (i) evaluating the
correlation between driving factors; (ii) application of the MLPNN method; (iii) predic-
tion of LU/LC in 2016; and (iv) validation of the LU/LC prediction for 2016.

Evaluating driving factor correlation

Correlation of the 10 driving factors was evaluated (tested) using Cramer’s V method.
Cramer’s V values for these driving factors were above 0.15 (Table 6). This can be
interpreted as meaning that these factors influenced the changes in LU/LC and should
therefore be included in the modelling [28,42,44]. The table also shows the factors by
order of influence (magnitude), indicating that population density per pixel is the most
influential driving factor.

Table 6. Correlation of Driving Factors results.

Data Cramer’s V Influence Order
Population density per pixel 0.4373 1 (most influential)
Distance from road 0.2913 2
Distance from education facility 0.2742 3
Elevation 0.2366 4
Distance from health facility 0.2332 5
Distance from sea 0.2357 6
Distance from CBD 0.2192 7
Distance from downtown 0.2103 8
Slope 0.1812 9
Distance from river 0.1586 10 (least influential)
12 A. M. Y. HAKIM ET AL.

MLPNN method
The MLPNN method was run with the RMS error value set to 0.0001. Training para-
meters other than the RMS error were set automatically to the default values by pressing
‘reset parameters’. The resulting accuracy rate was 89.51%. When the accuracy rate
reaches 80% or more, LU/LC prediction maps are considered suitable for running further
analyses [28,42].

Predicting LU/LC in 2016

In predicting LU/LC changes in 2016, the LCM module used the Markov Chain model.
This model produced a transition probability that was adjusted for the Business as Usual
(BAU) scenario as shown in Table 7.
The values contained in the matrix are probabilities for change that each has a value in
the range 0–1. If a diagonal cell (outlined in red) has a value close to 1, it means that the
LU/LC has a high probability of not changing to another LU/LC. In Table 7, the built-up
area diagonal cell has a value of 1, indicating that there is no potential for conversion or
change. The other LU/LC classes have the potential to experience change and conversion.
The values in the non-diagonal cells (not outlined in red) indicate the probability of
one LU/LC changing to another. The closer these values are to the maximum value (1),
the higher the likelihood of change to another LU/LC. In Table 7, the waterbody and
vegetation columns (excepting the diagonal cells) have values of 0. This means that there
is no change or conversion to either of these two LU/LC types. The zeros in the built-up
area row mean that the built-up area has no opportunity to change to another LU/LC.
The 2016 LU/LC prediction map is shown in Figure 5.

Validating the LU/LC 2016 prediction

The resulting LU/LC 2016 prediction map was validated with the actual LU/LC 2016 map
on the CROSSTAB module. The overall kappa value produced from the Kappa Index
Agreement (KIA) was 0.9344 (Table 8). As the overall kappa value was in the very strong
range (more than 0.80) [29,41], it was considered feasible to proceed with the prediction
for LU/LC in 2031.

Prediction of LU/LC in 2031

The Markov Chain model was used to predict LU/LC in 2031. The transition matrix
values are shown in Table 9. Broadly, the matrix shows that built-up area will not change
or be converted to another LU/LC. But both agricultural and barren areas have a high
probability of conversion to built-up area (>0.5).

Table 7. Matrix transition probability of LU/LC 2016 prediction.

The probability of changing to: Agriculture Area Built-Up Area Waterbody Barren Area Vegetation
Agriculture Area 0.7636 0.2169 0.0000 0.0195 0.0000
Built-Up Area 0.0000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Waterbody 0.0134 0.0329 0.8885 0.0652 0.0000
Barren Area 0.0212 0.3461 0.0000 0.6328 0.0000
Vegetation 0.0125 0.0914 0.0000 0.0391 0.8570
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES 13

Figure 5. Actual LU/LC 2016 and predicted LU/LC 2016 maps.

Table 8. Kappa Index Agreement (KIA).

Category Actual LU/LC 2016 Predicted LU/LC 2016
Agriculture Area 0.7546 0.8916
Built-Up Area 0.9267 0.8821
Waterbody 0.9986 0.9620
Barren Area 0.9781 0.8226
Vegetation 1.0000 0.9127
Overall Kappa 0.9344

Table 9. Matrix transition probability of LU/LC 2031 prediction.

The probability of changing to: Agriculture Area Built-Up Area Waterbody Barren Area Vegetation
Agriculture Area 0.3417 0.6315 0.0000 0.0268 0.0000
Built-Up Area 0.0000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Waterbody 0.0354 0.2225 0.6232 0.1190 0.0000
Barren Area 0.0296 0.8090 0.0000 0.1614 0.0000
Vegetation 0.0296 0.3639 0.0000 0.0669 0.5395

The predicted areas of LU/LC change from 2016 to 2031 are shown in Table 10. The
predictions indicate considerable change in LU/LC: agriculture area decreased by
15.49%; built-up area increased by 21.80%; waterbody decreased by 4.28%; barren area
decreased by 1.30%; and vegetation decreased by 0.74%. The predicted LU/LC map for
2031 is shown in Figure 6.

Concluding remarks
Remote Sensing and GIS tools applied in this study were capable of high accuracy in
assessing the LU/LC classification and predictive modelling of LU/LC changes in
14 A. M. Y. HAKIM ET AL.

Table 10. Comparison of LU/LC for 2016–2031 (ha and %).

LU/LC 2031 ha (%)
LU/LC 2016 Agriculture
ha (%) Area Built-Up Area Waterbody Barren Area Vegetation Total
Agriculture 1,465 (8.33%) 2,707 (15.40%) 0 (0%) 115 (0.65%) 0 (0%) 4,287 (24.39%)
Area
Built-Up Area 0 (0%) 10,294 (58.57%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 10,294 (58.57%)
Waterbody 71 (0.40%) 445 (2.53%) 1,245 (7.09%) 238 (1.35%) 0 (0%) 1,998 (11.37%)
Barren Area 21 (0.12%) 578 (3.29%) 0 (0%) 115 (0.66%) 0 (0%) 715 (4.07%)
Vegetation 8 (0.05%) 103 (0.59%) 0 (0%) 19 (0.11%) 153 (0.87%) 283 (1.61%)
Total 1,565 (8.90%) 14,126 1,245 487 153 17,577 (100%)
(80.37%) (7.09%) (2.77%) (0.87%)

Figure 6. Actual LU/LC 2016 and Predicted LU/LC 2031 maps.

Makassar City from 2006 to 2016 (Kappa value and MLPNN accuracy over 0.80). The
built-up area has increased by 13.92% from 7849 ha in 2006 to 10,294 ha in 2016. The
modelling results predict a built-up area of 14,126 ha in 2031 (increase of 21.80%
compared to 2016), resulting in a substantial reduction in the extent of agricultural
land, waterbodies, barren areas, and vegetation. Furthermore, the results predict that
built-up areas will cover 80.37% of the total area of Makassar by 2031. The population
density, distance from road and education facilities are the main factors influencing the
conversion from other land use types to built-up areas. Spatial planning could leverage
the accessibility and education factors to direct development towards appropriate areas
and discourage land conversion in other areas.
Based on the results, it is highly recommended to accommodate population growth
and restrain population spread through the implementation of programs which could
reduce the impact in terms of loss of agricultural land and other vegetated areas.
Although our study did not include climate change predictions in the analysis, control-
ling land use change is especially important in the context of global climate change [47].
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES 15

The ‘Green City’ [48] and ‘Resilient Cities’ [49] concepts argue that well-designed cities
could sustainably accommodate large populations with a relatively low land area,
enabling greater resource use efficiency, larger intact natural areas, and rich urban
biodiversity as well as improved quality of life for city dwellers.
The importance of ‘green areas’ is increasingly recognised, including for pollution
mitigation [50] and reduction of the ‘heat island’ effect created by urban development
[51,52] as well as for social activities [53] and psychological well-being [54]. In addition
to restrictions on building permits (e.g. related to the conversion of agricultural land),
policies could promote the maintenance and re-introduction of appropriate vegetation
into built-up areas. Vertical building could be increased, combined with energy efficient
designs and technology and the incorporation of vegetation (e.g. vertical gardens),
alongside various forms of mixed-use development (mixed-use buildings, mixed land
use) [51,55,56]. These results can be used to help the government and other stakeholders
in planning a sustainable future for Makassar City.

Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the Ministry of Research, Technology and Higher Education
(KEMENRISTEKDIKTI) of Indonesia for providing funding for this research under Grant (SP
DIPA-042.06.1.401516/2018); and in addition the National Institute Aeronautics and Space
(LAPAN) and the Centre for Regional Development and Spatial Information WITaRIS of
Hasanuddin University for providing data and facilities.

Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

ORCID
Andi Muhammad Yasser Hakim http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2070-3857
Sumbangan Baja http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5157-9767
Dorothea Agnes Rampisela http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7750-4165
Samsu Arif http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8784-6911

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