CARPIO UGARTE CLAUDIA ALEJANDRA LAB 2 PEP_104049

METODO ARIMA
ARROZ CON CASCARA

ANUAL
N° AÑO Fecha Tendencia Diferencia Cociente Sin Tendencia MM5

Arroz con cásc
1 1983-1984 1,949 2,118 6 1.00 0.92036318
2 1984-1985 1,955 2,105 263 1.13 0.92876439
3 1985-1986 2,218 2,095 118 1.05 1.05895652 0.9984
4 1986-1987 2,336 2,086 - 330 0.86 1.11966152 1.0148
5 1987-1988 2,006 2,080 76 1.04 0.96422027 1.0513
6 1988-1989 2,082 2,077 224 1.11 1.00250733 1.0607
7 1989-1990 2,306 2,075 - 10 1.00 1.11110538 1.0253
8 1990-1991 2,296 2,076 - 335 0.85 1.10581791 1.0106
9 1991-1992 1,961 2,079 - 104 0.95 0.94304494 0.9895
10 1992-1993 1,857 2,085 20 1.01 0.89071583 0.9752
11 1993-1994 1,877 2,093 308 1.16 0.89700958 1.0248
12 1994-1995 2,185 2,102 678 1.31 1.03926905 1.0348
13 1995-1996 2,863 2,115 - 749 0.74 1.35389943 1.0579
14 1996-1997 2,114 2,129 46 1.02 0.99291302 1.0079
15 1997-1998 2,160 2,146 - 760 0.65 1.00661406 0.9775
16 1998-1999 1,400 2,165 540 1.39 0.64671436 0.9195
17 1999-2000 1,940 2,186 410 1.21 0.88745242 0.8572
18 2000-2001 2,350 2,210 - 826 0.65 1.06357018 0.8860
19 2001-2002 1,524 2,235 1,080 1.71 0.68178515 0.9365
20 2002-2003 2,604 2,263 - 542 0.79 1.15051208 0.9901
21 2003-2004 2,062 2,294 626 1.30 0.89900992 1.0140
22 2004-2005 2,688 2,326 105 1.04 1.155537 1.0734
23 2005-2006 2,793 2,361 - 445 0.84 1.18296796 1.0506
24 2006-2007 2,348 2,398 178 1.08 0.9791114 1.0697
25 2007-2008 2,526 2,437 - 60 0.98 1.03633426 1.0327
26 2008-2009 2,466 2,479 - 18 0.99 0.99473797 0.9984
27 2009-2010 2,448 2,523 150 1.06 0.97030629 1.0021
28 2010-2011 2,598 2,569 14 1.01 1.01126986 0.9908
29 2011-2012 2,612 2,617 2 1.00 0.99792076 0.9952
30 2012-2013 2,614 2,668 153 1.06 0.9797234 1.0295
31 2013-2014 2,767 2,721 403 1.15 1.01689796 1.0025
32 2014-2015 3,170 2,776 - 687 0.78 1.14184725 0.9943
33 2015-2016 2,483 2,834 286 1.12 0.87625541 1.0141
34 2016-2017(p) 2,769 2,893 418 1.15 0.95701989 1.0229
35 2017-2018(p) 3,187 2,955 17 1.01 1.07839148 0.9735
36 2018-2019(p) 1.06107292 0.9978
3,204 3,020 - 443 0.86
37 2019-2020(p) 2,761 3,086 - 2,761 - 0.89479132 1.0114
38 2021 3,155 34.47 1.04 MEDIA
39 2022 3,226 478.63 0.25 DESV. EST.
40 2023 3,299 13.88 0.24 CV
41 2024 3,375
42 2025 3,452
43 2026 3,533
44 2027 3,615
45 2028 3,699
46 2029 3,786
47 2030 3,875
48 2031 3,967
49 2032 4,060
50 2033 4,156
51 2034 4,255
52 2035 4,355
53 2036 4,458
54 2037 4,563
55 2038 4,670
56 2039 4,779
57 2040 4,891
58 2041 5,005
TENDENCIA
Indice de Indice Est. 3,500
Centro Indice Estacionali Normalizad Proyección
dad o 3,000 f(x) = 1.13128091432142 x² − 16.0891150023812 x
1,807.21 R² = 0.53480083986475
2,160.99 2,500
1.0066 105.20 109.0032 109.00 2,283.06
2,000
1.0331 108.38 94.6811 94.68 1,975.35
1.0560 91.31 101.3165 101.32 2,107.80 1,500
1.0430 96.12 85.3418 85.34 1,772.35
1,000
1.0180 109.15 102.6634 102.66 2,130.66
1.0001 110.57 493.0059 493.00 2,263.20 500
0.9824 96.00 1,968.81
1.0000 89.07 2,112.26 -
0 5 10 15 20 25
1.0298 87.11 1,785.76
1.0464 99.32 2,158.41
1.0329 131.08 2,304.99
0.9927 100.02 2,015.82 PROYECCION ANUAL DEL A
0.9485 106.13 2,174.03 6,000
0.8883 72.80 1,847.45
0.8716 101.82 2,244.23 5,000
0.9112 116.72 2,408.44
0.9633 70.78 2,116.39 4,000
1.0020 114.82 2,293.11

3,000
1.0437 86.14 1,957.40
1.0620 108.81 2,388.12
2,000
1.0602 111.58 2,573.55
1.0512 93.14 2,270.51 1,000
1.0155 102.05 2,469.50
1.0002 99.45 2,115.64 -
0 10 20 30 40
0.9965 97.38 2,590.08
0.9930 101.84 2,800.31
1.0124 98.57 2,478.19
1.0160 96.43 2,703.19
0.9984 101.85 2,322.14
1.0042 113.71 2,850.11
1.0185 86.03 3,088.73
0.9982 95.87 2,739.43
0.9857 109.41 2,994.20
1.0046 105.62 2,576.92
1.0114 88.47 3,168.21
3,438.81
3,054.22
3,342.51
2,879.97
3,544.39
3,850.54
3,422.57
3,748.14
3,231.29
3,978.63
4,323.93
3,844.47
4,211.07
3,630.88
4,470.95
4,858.98
4,319.93
4,731.31
4,078.75
5,021.33
5,455.69
TENDENCIA METODO DE ANALISIS D
DESCRIPCIÓ
N
T Arroz con cásc
8091432142 x² − 16.0891150023812 x + 2132.64153330984
083986475 1 1984 1,949
2 1985 1,955
3 1986 2,218
4 1987 2,336
5 1988 2,006
6 1989 2,082
7 1990 2,306
8 1991 2,296
9 1992 1,961
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 10 1993 1,857
11 1994 1,877
12 1995 2,185
13 1996 2,863
OYECCION ANUAL DEL ARROZ 14 1997 2,114
15 1998 2,160
16 1999 1,400
17 2000 1,940
18 2001 2,350
19 2002 1,524
20 2003 2,604
21 2004 2,062
22 2005 2,688
23 2006 2,793
24 2007 2,348
25 2008 2,526
26 2009 2,466
20 30 40 50 60 70
27 2010 2,448
28 2011 2,598
29 2012 2,612
30 2013 2,614
31 2014 2,767
32 2015 3,170
33 2016 2,483
34 2017 2,769
35 2018 3,187
2019
36 3,204
37 2020 2,761
38 2021
39 2022
40 2023
41 2024
42 2025
43 2026
44 2027
45 2028
46 2029
47 2030
48 2031
49 2032
50 2033
51 2034
52 2035
53 2036
54 2037
55 2038
56 2039
57 2040
58 2041
DO DE ANALISIS DE DATOS
PROYECCION ANUAL DEL ARROZ
3500
a b TENDENCIA COCIENTE
f(x) = 24.3319158637773 x + 1906.37445950314
24.33 1,906 1,931 18.2936246 3000 R² = 1
24.33 1,906 1,955 0.03829123
2500
24.33 1,906 1,979 238.629793
24.33 1,906 2,004 332.297877 2000
24.33 1,906 2,028 22.0340388
1500
24.33 1,906 2,052 29.6340453
24.33 1,906 2,077 229.302129 1000
24.33 1,906 2,101 194.970214
500
24.33 1,906 2,125 164.361702
24.33 1,906 2,150 292.693618 0
0 10 20 30 40 50
24.33 1,906 2,174 297.025534
24.33 1,906 2,198 13.3574499
24.33 1,906 2,223 640.310634
24.33 1,906 2,247 133.021282
24.33 1,906 2,271 111.353197
24.33 1,906 2,296 895.685113
24.33 1,906 2,320 380.017029
24.33 1,906 2,344 5.65105495
24.33 1,906 2,369 844.680861
24.33 1,906 2,393 210.987223
24.33 1,906 2,417 355.344693
24.33 1,906 2,442 246.323391
24.33 1,906 2,466 326.991476
24.33 1,906 2,490 142.34044
24.33 1,906 2,515 11.3276439
24.33 1,906 2,539 73.004272
24.33 1,906 2,563 115.336188
24.33 1,906 2,588 10.3318963
24.33 1,906 2,612 1.95527E-05
24.33 1,906 2,636 22.3319354
24.33 1,906 2,661 106.336149
24.33 1,906 2,685 485.004233
24.33 1,906 2,709 226.327683
24.33 1,906 2,734 35.3404011
24.33 1,906 2,758 429.008485
24.33 1,906 2,782 421.650768

24.33 1,906 2,807 45.2785902
24.33 1,906 2,831 8106.62298 SUMA
24.33 1,906 2,855
24.33 1,906 2,880
24.33 1,906 2,904
24.33 1,906 2,928
24.33 1,906 2,953
24.33 1,906 2,977
24.33 1,906 3,001
24.33 1,906 3,026
24.33 1,906 3,050
24.33 1,906 3,074
24.33 1,906 3,099
24.33 1,906 3,123
24.33 1,906 3,147
24.33 1,906 3,172
24.33 1,906 3,196
24.33 1,906 3,220
24.33 1,906 3,245
24.33 1,906 3,269
24.33 1,906 3,293
24.33 1,906 3,318
Resumen
ON ANUAL DEL ARROZ

Estadísticas de la regresión
1906.37445950314
Coeficiente d 0.67871776
R^2 ajustado 0.44524802
Error típico 319.5269
Observacione 37
ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados
Regresión 1 3052087.07 3052087.07
Residuos 35 3573410.38 102097.44
30 40 50 60 70
Total 36 6625497.46
Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t

Intercepción 1853.21515 107.226207 17.2832296
Variable X 1 26.8995597 4.91987578 5.46752823
Análisis de los residuales
Observación
Pronóstico para YResiduos
Residuos estándares
1 1880.11471 68.8852928 0.21864337
2 1907.01427 47.985733 0.15230773
3 1933.91383 284.086173 0.90169549
4 1960.81339 375.186614 1.19085021
5 1987.71295 18.2870538 0.05804349
6 2014.61251 67.3874941 0.21388932
7 2041.51207 264.487934 0.83949027
8 2068.41163 227.588375 0.72237029
9 2095.31119 -134.311185 -0.42630653
10 2122.21074 -265.210745 -0.84178449
11 2149.1103 -272.110305 -0.86368384
12 2176.00986 8.99013563 0.02853488
13 2202.90942 660.090576 2.09514138
14 2229.80898 -115.808984 -0.36758015
15 2256.70854 -96.7085436 -0.30695495

16 2283.6081 -883.608103 -2.80459072
17 2310.50766 -370.507663 -1.17599912
18 2337.40722 12.5927772 0.03996974
19 2364.30678 -840.306783 -2.66715142
20 2391.20634 212.793658 0.67541155
21 2418.1059 -356.105902 -1.13028763
22 2445.00546 242.994538 0.77126978
23 2471.90502 321.094978 1.01916222
24 2498.80458 -150.804581 -0.47865692
25 2525.70414 0.29585898 0.00093906
26 2552.6037 -86.6037008 -0.27488197
27 2579.50326 -131.503261 -0.41739412
28 2606.40282 -8.40282024 -0.02667073
29 2633.30238 -21.30238 -0.0676142
30 2660.20194 -46.2019397 -0.14664593
31 2687.1015 79.8985005 0.25359952
32 2714.00106 455.998941 1.44735024
33 2740.90062 -257.900619 -0.81858199
34 2767.80018 1.19982131 0.00380826
35 2794.69974 392.300262 1.24516929
36 2821.5993 382.374901 1.21366598
37 2848.49886 -87.1221017 -0.27652738
Gráfico de los re
600
200
Residuos
-200 0 5 10 15 2
-600
-1000
N° AÑO
F Valor crítico de F
29.893865 3.88956E-06
Curva de regresión
Y Pronósti
4000
3000
Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%
Superior 95,0%
2000
1.02737E-18 1635.53438 2070.89592 1635.53438 2070.89592
Y
1000
3.88956E-06 16.9116809 36.8874386 16.9116809 36.8874386 0
0 5 10 15 20
N° AÑO
Resultados de datos de probabilidad
uos estándares Percentil Y Gráfico de probabili

1.35135135 1400 3500
4.05405405 1524 3000
2500
6.75675676 1857 2000
9.45945946 1877 1500
Y
1000
12.1621622 1940 500
14.8648649 1949 0
0 20 40 60
17.5675676 1955 Muestra per
20.2702703 1961
22.972973 2006
25.6756757 2062
28.3783784 2082
31.0810811 2114
33.7837838 2160
36.4864865 2185
39.1891892 2218
41.8918919 2296
44.5945946 2306
47.2972973 2336
50 2348
52.7027027 2350
55.4054054 2448
58.1081081 2466
60.8108108 2483
63.5135135 2526
66.2162162 2598
68.9189189 2604
71.6216216 2612
74.3243243 2614
77.027027 2688
79.7297297 2761.37676
82.4324324 2767
85.1351351 2769
87.8378378 2793
90.5405405 2863
93.2432432 3170
95.9459459 3187
98.6486486 3203.9742
Gráfico de los residuales
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
N° AÑOS
Curva de regresión ajustada

Y Pronóstico para Y
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
N° AÑOS
Gráfico de probabilidad normal
20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
METODO ARIMA
AVENA
ANUAL

Avena
1 1983-1984 1,048 1,066 - 8 0.99 0.98280117
2 1984-1985 1,040 1,059 22 1.02 0.98220008
3 1985-1986 1,062 1,053 46 1.04 1.00871676 1.0287
4 1986-1987 1,108 1,048 55 1.05 1.05698363 1.0491
5 1987-1988 1,163 1,045 - 31 0.97 1.11273019 1.0811
6 1988-1989 1,132 1,044 60 1.05 1.08475273 1.0701
7 1989-1990 1,192 1,043 - 196 0.84 1.14241639 1.0282
8 1990-1991 996 1,045 - 108 0.89 0.95336842 0.9971
9 1991-1992 888 1,047 119 1.13 0.84773351 0.9691
10 1992-1993 1,007 1,052 - 8 0.99 0.95745278 0.9311
11 1993-1994 999 1,057 15 1.02 0.94471051 0.9326
12 1994-1995 1,014 1,065 17 1.02 0.95242353 0.9620
13 1995-1996 1,031 1,073 47 1.05 0.96058365 0.9718
14 1996-1997 1,078 1,083 24 1.02 0.99499089 0.9789
15 1997-1998 1,102 1,095 - 16 0.99 1.00637799 0.9801
16 1998-1999 1,086 1,108 - 10 0.99 0.98008001 0.9810
17 1999-2000 1,076 1,123 23 1.02 0.95849144 0.9744
18 2000-2001 1,099 1,139 13 1.01 0.96522909 0.9648
19 2001-2002 1,112 1,156 14 1.01 0.96189611 0.9594
20 2002-2003 1,126 1,175 13 1.01 0.95831582 0.9564
21 2003-2004 1,139 1,195 10 1.01 0.95284002 0.9528
22 2004-2005 1,149 1,217 26 1.02 0.94394076 0.9457
23 2005-2006 1,175 1,241 - 3 1.00 0.94714618 0.9392
24 2006-2007 1,172 1,265 24 1.02 0.92621277 0.9671
25 2007-2008 1,196 1,292 245 1.20 0.92595818 1.0012
26 2008-2009 1,441 1,319 62 1.04 1.0921881 1.0328
27 2009-2010 1,503 1,349 21 1.01 1.11451191 1.0645
28 2010-2011 1,524 1,379 7 1.00 1.10495411 1.0922
29 2011-2012 1,531 1,411 7 1.00 1.08475316 1.1288
30 2012-2013 1,538 1,445 350 1.23 1.06436944 1.1165
31 2013-2014 1,888 1,480 - 291 0.85 1.27562327 1.0946
32 2014-2015 1,597 1,517 - 50 0.97 1.05301165 1.0614
33 2015-2016 1,547 1,555 - 82 0.95 0.99510373 1.0362
34 2016-2017(p) 1,465 1,594 69 1.05 0.91902021 0.9678
35 2017-2018(p) 1,534 1,635 32 1.02 0.93820679 0.9367
36 2018-2019(p) 0.93354315 0.9222
1,566 1,677 - 20 0.99
37 2019-2020(p) 1,546 1,721 - 1,546 - 0.89785504 0.9232
38 2021 1,767 4.11 1.01 MEDIA
39 2022 1,813 64.39 0.06 DESV. EST.
40 2023 1,862 15.69 0.06 CV
41 2024 1,912
42 2025 1,963
43 2026 2,015
44 2027 2,070
45 2028 2,125
46 2029 2,182
47 2030 2,241
48 2031 2,301
49 2032 2,362
50 2033 2,425
51 2034 2,490
52 2035 2,556
53 2036 2,623
54 2037 2,692
55 2038 2,762
56 2039 2,834
57 2040 2,907
58 2041 2,982
Avena
2,000
Indice de Indice Est. 1,800

Centro Indice Estacionali Normalizad Proyección 1,600 f(x) = 0.733861924346934 x² − 9.69412216856497 x
dad o R² = 0.780757389063412
1,400
1,067.64
1,200
1,065.36
1.0389 97.10 98.7235 97.75 1,029.12 1,000
1.0651 99.24 96.8147 95.86 1,004.85 800
1.0756 103.45 99.6405 98.66 1,031.13 600

1.0491 103.40 101.1209 100.12 1,044.83 400
1.0127 112.81 101.6193 100.62 1,049.82 200
0.9831 96.97 497.9190 493.00 1,021.19 -
0.9501 89.22 1,004.11 0 5 10 15 20 25
0.9319 102.75 1,037.61

0.9473 99.73 1,058.76 3,500
0.9669 98.50 1,071.20 PROYECCION ANUAL PARA 2
3,000
0.9754 98.49 1,049.14
0.9795 101.58 1,038.55
2,500
0.9806 102.63 1,080.30
0.9777 100.24 1,109.42 2,000
0.9696 98.85 1,129.51
0.9621 100.33 1,112.95 1,500
0.9579 100.42 1,108.17
1,000
0.9546 100.39 1,159.19
0.9493 100.38 1,196.83 500
0.9425 100.16 1,224.73
0.9532 99.37 1,212.63 -
0 10 20 30 40
0.9841 94.11 1,212.96
1.0170 91.05 1,274.28
1.0486 104.15 1,320.98
1.0783 103.36 1,356.87
1.1105 99.50 1,348.19
1.1227 96.62 1,352.92
1.1056 96.27 1,425.57
1.0780 118.33 1,481.87
1.0488 100.40 1,525.94
1.0020 99.31 1,519.61
0.9523 96.51 1,528.07
0.9295 100.94 1,613.06
0.9227 101.18 1,679.49
0.9232 97.25 1,731.92
1,726.89
1,738.38
1,836.76
1,913.86
1,974.83
1,970.05
1,983.87
2,096.65
2,184.97
2,254.65
2,249.08
2,264.54
2,392.75
2,492.81
2,571.40
2,563.97
2,580.38
2,725.05
2,837.40
2,925.07
2,914.74
Avena METODO DE ANALISIS DE
DESCRIPCIÓ
T N Avena
4346934 x² − 9.69412216856497 x + 1075.31935210629 1984

063412 1 1,048
2 1985 1,040
3 1986 1,062
4 1987 1,108
5 1988 1,163
6 1989 1,132
7 1990 1,192
8 1991 996
9 1992 888
0 15 20 25 30 35 40
10 1993 1,007
11 1994 999
12 1995 1,014
CCION ANUAL PARA 20 AÑOS 13 1996 1,031
14 1997 1,078
15 1998 1,102
16 1999 1,086
17 2000 1,076
18 2001 1,099
19 2002 1,112
20 2003 1,126
21 2004 1,139
22 2005 1,149
23 2006 1,175
24 2007 1,172
20 30 40 50 60 70
25 2008 1,196
26 2009 1,441
27 2010 1,503
28 2011 1,524
29 2012 1,531
30 2013 1,538
31 2014 1,888
32 2015 1,597
33 2016 1,547
34 2017 1,465
35 2018 1,534
36 2019 1,566
2020
37 1,546
38 2021
39 2022
40 2023
41 2024
42 2025
43 2026
44 2027
45 2028
46 2029
47 2030
48 2031
49 2032
50 2033
51 2034
52 2035
53 2036
54 2037
55 2038
56 2039
57 2040
58 2041
Resumen
METODO DE ANALISIS DE DATOS
a b TENDENCIA COCIENTE Estadísticas de la regresión
18.19 894.06 1,048 0.02668067 Coeficiente d 0.82720352

18.19 894.06 1,040 0.09390275 Coeficiente d 0.68426567
18.19 894.06 1,062 0.00288372 R^2 ajustado 0.67497936
18.19 894.06 1,108 0.00946718 Error típico 136.793043
18.19 894.06 1,163 0.0072839 Observacione 36
18.19 894.06 1,132 0.03520705
18.19 894.06 1,192 0.02065875 ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
18.19 894.06 996 0.02071443 Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
18.19 894.06 888 0.01620524 Regresión 1 1378827.32
18.19 894.06 1,007 0.02289095 Residuos 34 636219.449
18.19 894.06 999 0.00194285 Total 35 2015046.77
18.19 894.06 1,014 0.00054158
18.19 894.06 1,031 0.0518364 Coeficientes Error típico
18.19 894.06 1,078 0.0153251 Intercepción 877.679036 48.4900421
18.19 894.06 1,102 0.00011608 1 18.8390686 2.19466633
18.19 894.06 1,086 0.00304711
18.19 894.06 1,076 0.00803059
18.19 894.06 1,099 0.01159631
18.19 894.06 1,112 0.0155906 Análisis de los residuales
18.19 894.06 1,126 0.00598558
18.19 894.06 1,139 0.00421885 ObservaciónPronóstico 1048 Residuos
18.19 894.06 1,149 0.04503409 1 915.357173 124.642827
18.19 894.06 1,175 0.02885915 2 934.196242 127.803758
18.19 894.06 1,172 0.05428484 3 953.03531 154.96469
18.19 894.06 1,196 0.01753366 4 971.874379 191.125621
18.19 894.06 1,441 0.10996568 5 990.713447 141.286553
18.19 894.06 1,503 0.02652121 6 1009.55252 182.447484
18.19 894.06 1,524 0.02290205 7 1028.39158 -32.3915847
18.19 894.06 1,531 0.01252992 8 1047.23065 -159.230653
18.19 894.06 1,538 0.01705074 9 1066.06972 -59.069722
18.19 894.06 1,888 0.0341448 10 1084.90879 -85.9087906
18.19 894.06 1,597 0.09291683 11 1103.74786 -89.7478592
18.19 894.06 1,547 0.0072481 12 1122.58693 -91.5869279
18.19 894.06 1,465 0.03729327 13 1141.426 -63.4259965
18.19 894.06 1,534 0.0103057 14 1160.26507 -58.2650651
18.19 894.06 1,566 0.04334671 15 1179.10413 -93.1041338
18.19 894.06 1,545 0.05651649 16 1197.9432 -121.943202

18.19 894.06 1,585 0.99057896 17 1216.78227 -117.782271
18.19 894.06 1,604 18 1235.62134 -123.62134
18.19 894.06 1,622 19 1254.46041 -128.460408
18.19 894.06 1,640 20 1273.29948 -134.299477
18.19 894.06 1,658 21 1292.13855 -143.138546
18.19 894.06 1,676 22 1310.97761 -135.977614
18.19 894.06 1,695 23 1329.81668 -157.816683
18.19 894.06 1,713 24 1348.65575 -152.655751
18.19 894.06 1,731 25 1367.49482 73.5051799
18.19 894.06 1,749 26 1386.33389 116.666111
18.19 894.06 1,767 27 1405.17296 118.827043
18.19 894.06 1,786 28 1424.01203 106.987974
18.19 894.06 1,804 29 1442.85109 95.1489053
18.19 894.06 1,822 30 1461.69016 426.309837
18.19 894.06 1,840 31 1480.52923 116.470768
18.19 894.06 1,858 32 1499.3683 47.6316994
18.19 894.06 1,876 33 1518.20737 -53.2073692
18.19 894.06 1,895 34 1537.04644 -3.04643782
18.19 894.06 1,913 35 1555.88551 10.0834674
18.19 894.06 1,931 36 1574.72458 -29.2220852
18.19 894.06 1,949
Gráfico de
2000
1500
1000
1048
500
0
0 20
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F Curva de

1378827.32 73.6854696 4.99411E-10
18712.3367 Colum
2000
1500
1000
1048
Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%
Superior 95,0% 500
18.1001913 4.9902E-19 779.135414 976.222657 779.135414 976.222657 0
0 5 10
8.58402409 4.99411E-10 14.37897 23.2991672 14.37897 23.2991672

Gráfico
500
Residuos estándares Percentil 1048
400
0.92448069 1.38888889 888 Residuos 300
0.94792544 4.16666667 996 200
1.14937912 6.94444444 999 100
0
1.41758615 9.72222222 1007 -100 0 5 10
1.04792784 12.5 1014 -200
1.35322007 15.2777778 1031
-0.24024964 18.0555556 1040
-1.18101994 20.8333333 1062
-0.43812242 23.6111111 1076
-0.63718883 26.3888889 1078
-0.66566336 29.1666667 1086
-0.6793038 31.9444444 1099
-0.47043308 34.7222222 1102
-0.43215425 37.5 1108
-0.69055697 40.2777778 1112
-0.90445747 43.0555556 1126

-0.87359568 45.8333333 1132
-0.91690427 48.6111111 1139
-0.95279583 51.3888889 1149
-0.99610443 54.1666667 1163
-1.06166415 56.9444444 1172
-1.00855124 59.7222222 1175
-1.17053246 62.5 1192
-1.13225363 65.2777778 1196
0.54519077 68.0555556 1441
0.86531708 70.8333333 1465
0.88134479 73.6111111 1503
0.79353396 76.3888889 1524
0.70572312 79.1666667 1531
3.16195661 81.9444444 1534
0.86386821 84.7222222 1538
0.35328616 87.5 1545.50249
-0.39464112 90.2777778 1547
-0.02259555 93.0555556 1565.96897
0.07478947 95.8333333 1597
-0.21674134 98.6111111 1888
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil

Column C Pronóstico 1048
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
1

500
400
300
200
100
0
-100 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
-200
1
METODO ARIMA
CAÑAHUA
ANUAL

Cañahua
1 1983-1984 457 429 26 1.06 1.06597996
2 1984-1985 483 441 - 8 0.98 1.09553123
3 1985-1986 475 453 5 1.01 1.047766 1.0394
4 1986-1987 480 466 - 21 0.96 1.02981309 1.0065
5 1987-1988 459 479 - 15 0.97 0.95793137 0.9632
6 1988-1989 444 493 1 1.00 0.90151186 0.9364
7 1989-1990 445 506 30 1.07 0.87918688 0.9187
8 1990-1991 475 520 28 1.06 0.91330698 0.9005
9 1991-1992 503 534 - 27 0.95 0.9413808 0.9062
10 1992-1993 476 549 48 1.10 0.86726792 0.9107
11 1993-1994 524 564 - 2 1.00 0.92961617 0.9027
12 1994-1995 522 579 - 3 0.99 0.9018784 0.8932
13 1995-1996 519 594 26 1.05 0.8734352 0.9044
14 1996-1997 545 610 33 1.06 0.8935686 0.8972
15 1997-1998 578 626 - 4 0.99 0.92344438 0.8917
16 1998-1999 574 642 2 1.00 0.89378029 0.8952
17 1999-2000 576 659 26 1.05 0.87430433 0.8917
18 2000-2001 602 676 5 1.01 0.89093056 0.8816
19 2001-2002 607 693 13 1.02 0.87605168 0.8706
20 2002-2003 620 710 - 9 0.99 0.87279689 0.8579
21 2003-2004 611 728 - 6 0.99 0.83913184 0.8401
22 2004-2005 605 746 8 1.01 0.81077242 0.8214
23 2005-2006 613 765 - 1.00 0.80176257 0.7992
24 2006-2007 613 783 - 2 1.00 0.78266243 0.7840
25 2007-2008 611 802 16 1.03 0.76167681 0.7729
26 2008-2009 627 821 8 1.01 0.76330674 0.7615
27 2009-2010 635 841 6 1.01 0.75508089 0.7511
28 2010-2011 641 861 3 1.00 0.74464921 0.7422
29 2011-2012 644 881 2 1.00 0.73103606 0.7320
30 2012-2013 646 901 11 1.02 0.71668682 0.7103
31 2013-2014 657 922 - 47 0.93 0.71250909 0.6894
32 2014-2015 610 943 7 1.01 0.64679487 0.6776
33 2015-2016 617 964 46 1.07 0.63975911 0.6615
34 2016-2017(p) 663 986 - 22 0.97 0.67239061 0.6433
35 2017-2018(p) 641 1,008 - 1 1.00 0.63595213 0.6347
36 2018-2019(p) 0.62169111 0.6335
640 1,030 - 5 0.99
37 2019-2020(p) 636 1,053 - 636 - 0.60386019 0.6205
38 2021 1,075 8.58 1.02 MEDIA
39 2022 1,099 19.76 0.04 DESV. EST.
40 2023 1,122 2.30 0.04 CV
41 2024 1,146
42 2025 1,170
43 2026 1,194
44 2027 1,218
45 2028 1,243
46 2029 1,268
47 2030 1,294
48 2031 1,320
49 2032 1,346
50 2033 1,372
51 2034 1,399
52 2035 1,425
53 2036 1,453
54 2037 1,480
55 2038 1,508
56 2039 1,536
57 2040 1,564
58 2041 1,593
Cañahua
700
Indice de Indice Est.
600 f(x) = − 0.147496500717009 x² + 11.7259641072393
Centro Indice Estacionali Normalizad Proyección R² = 0.910867565710547
dad o
421.82 500
426.96
400
1.0230 102.43 100.3648 98.50 446.55
0.9849 104.56 102.3687 100.47 468.29 300
0.9498 100.86 100.6635 98.79 473.38
0.9275 97.20 100.2540 98.39 484.59 200
0.9096 96.66 98.6737 96.84 490.17

100
0.9033 101.10 502.3248 493.00 512.30
0.9084 103.63 536.82 -
0 5 10 15 20 25
0.9067 95.65 542.24
0.8979 103.53 554.62
0.8988 100.35 560.51
0.9008 96.96 585.30
0.8945 99.90 612.77
0.8935 103.36 618.37
0.8935 100.04 631.90 PROYECCION ANUAL PARA
0.8866 98.61 638.00 1,800
0.8761 101.69 665.57 1,600
0.8643 101.36 696.13
1,400
0.8490 102.80 701.80
1,200
0.8308 101.01 716.43
0.8103 100.06 722.64 1,000
0.7916 101.28 753.11 800
0.7785 100.54 786.89 600
0.7672 99.28 792.51
400
0.7563 100.92 808.23
200
0.7467 101.13 814.41
0.7371 101.03 847.91 -
0 10 20 30 40
0.7212 101.37 885.07
0.6998 102.41 890.51
0.6835 104.25 907.28
0.6696 96.60 913.33
0.6524 98.06 949.98
0.6390 105.22 990.65
0.6341 100.29 995.79
0.6270 99.16 1,013.58
0.6205 97.32 1,019.39
1,059.31
1,103.65
1,108.36
1,127.14
1,132.59
1,175.90
1,224.05
1,228.21
1,247.96
1,252.93
1,299.76
1,351.86
1,355.36
1,376.04
1,380.42
1,430.88
1,487.09
1,489.78
1,511.37
1,515.04
1,569.27
Cañahua METODO DE ANALISIS DE DATO
DESCRIPCIÓ
T N Cañahua
00717009 x² + 11.7259641072393 x + 416.83691000648

10547 1984
1 457
2 1985 483
3 1986 475
4 1987 480
5 1988 459
6 1989 444
7 1990 445
8 1991 475
9 1992 503
10 1993 476
15 20 25 30 35 40
11 1994 524
12 1995 522
13 1996 519
14 1997 545
15 1998 578
16 1999 574
ECCION ANUAL PARA 20 AÑOS 17 2000 576
18 2001 602
19 2002 607
20 2003 620
21 2004 611
22 2005 605
23 2006 613
24 2007 613
25 2008 611
26 2009 627
27 2010 635
28 2011 641
20 30 40 50 60 70 29 2012 644
30 2013 646
31 2014 657
32 2015 610
33 2016 617
34 2017 663
35 2018 641
36 2019 640
2020
37 636
38 2021
39 2022
40 2023
41 2024
42 2025
43 2026
44 2027
45 2028
46 2029
47 2030
48 2031
49 2032
50 2033
51 2034
52 2035
53 2036
54 2037
55 2038
56 2039
57 2040
58 2041
ANALISIS DE DATOS
a b TENDENCIA COCIENTE
PROYECCIONES ANUAL DE LA CA
900
6.58881606 452.746289 459.335105 2.33510543 800 f(x) = 6.58881606407267 x + 452.746289361326
6.58881606 452.746289 465.923921 17.0760785 R² = 1
700
6.58881606 452.746289 472.512738 2.48726245
600
6.58881606 452.746289 479.101554 0.89844638
6.58881606 452.746289 485.69037 26.6903697 500
6.58881606 452.746289 492.279186 48.2791857 400

6.58881606 452.746289 498.868002 53.8680018 300
6.58881606 452.746289 505.456818 30.4568179 200
6.58881606 452.746289 512.045634 9.04563394
100
6.58881606 452.746289 518.63445 42.63445
0
6.58881606 452.746289 525.223266 1.22326607 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
6.58881606 452.746289 531.812082 9.81208213
6.58881606 452.746289 538.400898 19.4008982
6.58881606 452.746289 544.989714 0.01028574
6.58881606 452.746289 551.57853 26.4214697
6.58881606 452.746289 558.167346 15.8326536
6.58881606 452.746289 564.756162 11.2438375
6.58881606 452.746289 571.344979 30.6550215
6.58881606 452.746289 577.933795 29.0662054
6.58881606 452.746289 584.522611 35.4773894
6.58881606 452.746289 591.111427 19.8885733
6.58881606 452.746289 597.700243 7.29975723
6.58881606 452.746289 604.289059 8.71094117
6.58881606 452.746289 610.877875 2.1221251
6.58881606 452.746289 617.466691 6.46669096
6.58881606 452.746289 624.055507 2.94449297
6.58881606 452.746289 630.644323 4.35567691
6.58881606 452.746289 637.233139 3.76686084
6.58881606 452.746289 643.821955 0.17804478
6.58881606 452.746289 650.410771 4.41077128
6.58881606 452.746289 656.999587 0.00041265
6.58881606 452.746289 663.588403 53.5884034
6.58881606 452.746289 670.177219 53.1772195
6.58881606 452.746289 676.766036 13.7660355
6.58881606 452.746289 683.354852 42.3548516
6.58881606 452.746289 689.943668 49.5172756
6.58881606 452.746289 696.532484 60.8914383

6.58881606 452.746289 703.1213 746.354032
6.58881606 452.746289 709.710116
6.58881606 452.746289 716.298932
6.58881606 452.746289 722.887748
6.58881606 452.746289 729.476564
6.58881606 452.746289 736.06538
6.58881606 452.746289 742.654196
6.58881606 452.746289 749.243012
6.58881606 452.746289 755.831828
6.58881606 452.746289 762.420644
6.58881606 452.746289 769.00946
6.58881606 452.746289 775.598277
6.58881606 452.746289 782.187093
6.58881606 452.746289 788.775909
6.58881606 452.746289 795.364725
6.58881606 452.746289 801.953541
6.58881606 452.746289 808.542357
6.58881606 452.746289 815.131173
6.58881606 452.746289 821.719989
6.58881606 452.746289 828.308805
6.58881606 452.746289 834.897621
Resumen
IONES ANUAL DE LA CAÑAGUA
26
R^2 ajustado 0.85057061
Observacione 36
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 145021.813 145021.813 200.224332 8.24967E-16
40 50 60 70 Residuos 34 24626.0861 724.29665
Total 35 169647.899
Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

Intercepción 453.55682 9.53996513 47.5428174 1.09672E-32 434.169278
1 6.10971783 0.4317802 14.1500647 8.24967E-16 5.23223488
Análisis de los residuales Resultados de datos de proba
ObservaciónPronóstico 457 Residuos

Residuos estándares Percentil
1 465.776256 17.2237443 0.64932765 1.38888889
2 471.885974 3.11402647 0.11739744 4.16666667
3 477.995691 2.00430864 0.07556156 6.94444444
4 484.105409 -25.1054092 -0.94646298 9.72222222
5 490.215127 -46.215127 -1.74229013 12.5
6 496.324845 -51.3248448 -1.93492426 15.2777778
7 502.434563 -27.4345627 -1.03427105 18.0555556
8 508.544281 -5.54428051 -0.20901696 20.8333333
9 514.653998 -38.6539983 -1.45723888 23.6111111
10 520.763716 3.23628384 0.12200649 26.3888889
11 526.873434 -4.87343399 -0.18372634 29.1666667
12 532.983152 -13.9831518 -0.52715872 31.9444444
13 539.09287 5.90713035 0.22269624 34.7222222
14 545.202587 32.7974125 1.23644815 37.5
15 551.312305 22.6876947 0.85531619 40.2777778

16 557.422023 18.5779769 0.70038162 43.0555556
17 563.531741 38.468259 1.45023659 45.8333333
18 569.641459 37.3585412 1.40840071 48.6111111
19 575.751177 44.2488234 1.66816134 51.3888889
20 581.860894 29.1391055 1.09853157 54.1666667
21 587.970612 17.0293877 0.64200049 56.9444444
22 594.08033 18.9196699 0.7132633 59.7222222
23 600.190048 12.8099521 0.48292961 62.5
24 606.299766 4.70023423 0.17719678 65.2777778
25 612.409484 14.5905164 0.5500561 68.0555556
26 618.519201 16.4807986 0.62131892 70.8333333
27 624.628919 16.3710807 0.6171826 73.6111111
28 630.738637 13.2613629 0.4999476 76.3888889
29 636.848355 9.15164509 0.34501303 79.1666667
30 642.958073 14.0419273 0.52937453 81.9444444
31 649.067791 -39.0677906 -1.47283866 84.7222222
32 655.177508 -38.1775084 -1.43927541 87.5
33 661.287226 1.71277377 0.06457082 90.2777778
34 667.396944 -26.3969441 -0.99515328 93.0555556
35 673.506662 -33.0802698 -1.24711174 95.8333333
36 679.61638 -43.9753343 -1.65785092 98.6111111
60
40
20
Residuos
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
-20
-40
-60
1

or crítico de F Column C Pronóstico 457
800
600
400
457
200
0
Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%
Superior 95,0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 3
472.944362 434.169278 472.944362 1
6.98720078 5.23223488 6.98720078

700
esultados de datos de probabilidad 600
500
400
457
457 300
200
444 100
445 0
0 20 40 60 80 100
459 Muestra percentil
475
475
476
480
483
503
519
522
524
545
574
576
578
602
605
607
610
611
611
613
613
617
620
627
635
635.641045
640.426392
641
641
644
646
657
663
os residuales
20 25 30 35 40
esión ajustada
Pronóstico 457
20 25 30 35 40
1
abilidad normal
60 80 100 120
ra percentil
METODO ARIMA
CEBADA DE GRANO
ANUAL
N° AÑO Fecha Tendencia Diferencia Cociente Sin Tendencia

Cebada en grano
1 1983-1984 757 831 86 1.11 0.91062236
2 1984-1985 843 818 - 2 1.00 1.03080883
3 1985-1986 841 805 37 1.04 1.04444232
4 1986-1987 878 794 - 34 0.96 1.10644896
5 1987-1988 844 783 83 1.10 1.07824976
6 1988-1989 927 773 - 230 0.75 1.19941683
7 1989-1990 697 764 53 1.08 0.91241545
8 1990-1991 750 756 - 123 0.84 0.99227035
9 1991-1992 627 749 49 1.08 0.83746993
10 1992-1993 676 742 31 1.05 0.91052355
11 1993-1994 707 737 - 17 0.98 0.95918824
12 1994-1995 690 733 - 49 0.93 0.94180158
13 1995-1996 641 729 54 1.08 0.87916561
14 1996-1997 695 726 - 15 0.98 0.9566841
15 1997-1998 680 725 12 1.02 0.93826752
16 1998-1999 692 724 53 1.08 0.9559099
17 1999-2000 745 724 15 1.02 1.02900496
18 2000-2001 760 725 - 1.00 1.04829263
19 2001-2002 760 727 6 1.01 1.0455623
20 2002-2003 766 730 6 1.01 1.04977524
21 2003-2004 772 733 19 1.02 1.05265512
22 2004-2005 791 738 8 1.01 1.07182676
23 2005-2006 799 744 - 7 0.99 1.07463769
24 2006-2007 792 750 7 1.01 1.05610477
25 2007-2008 799 757 - 55 0.93 1.05513371
26 2008-2009 744 765 14 1.02 0.97193968
27 2009-2010 758 775 12 1.02 0.97855139
28 2010-2011 770 785 - 3 1.00 0.98132375
29 2011-2012 767 796 8 1.01 0.96405277
30 2012-2013 775 807 21 1.03 0.95981175
31 2013-2014 796 820 134 1.17 0.97048838
32 2014-2015 930 834 - 99 0.89 1.11528657
33 2015-2016 831 848 26 1.03 0.9794534
34 2016-2017(p) 857 864 16 1.02 0.99200883
35 2017-2018(p) 873 880 21 1.02 0.9917299
36 2018-2019(p) 0.99642145
894 898 - 15 0.98
37 2019-2020(p) 880 916 - 880 - 0.96079636
38 2021 935 0.47 1.00 MEDIA
39 2022 955 72.57 0.09 DESV. EST.
40 2023 976 153.20 0.09 CV
41 2024 998
42 2025 1,020
43 2026 1,044
44 2027 1,068
45 2028 1,094
46 2029 1,120
47 2030 1,147
48 2031 1,176
49 2032 1,205
50 2033 1,235
51 2034 1,265
52 2035 1,297
53 2036 1,330
54 2037 1,363
55 2038 1,398
56 2039 1,433
57 2040 1,470
58 2041 1,507
UAL
Cebada e
MM5 Centro Indice Estacionali Normalizad Proyección 1,000
dad o 900
f(x) = 0.452626394751906 x² − 14.8
858.12 800 R² = 0.48164523368316
803.66 700
1.0341 1.0630 98.25 99.7396 97.43 784.56
600
1.0919 1.0800 102.45 99.0121 96.72 767.53
500
1.0682 1.0630 101.44 99.6463 97.34 761.96
400
1.0578 1.0309 116.35 105.6688 103.23 797.82
300
1.0040 0.9872 92.43 100.5954 98.27 750.70
200
0.9704 0.9464 104.85 504.6622 493.00 736.45
100
0.9224 0.9253 90.51 724.16
0.9283 0.9169 99.30 722.71 -
0 5 10 15
0.9056 0.9176 104.54 760.87
0.9295 0.9322 101.02 719.97
0.9350 0.9347 94.06 710.40
0.9344 0.9431 101.44 702.67
0.9518 0.9687 96.86 705.49 PROYECCIONES ANU
0.9856 0.9945 96.12 747.28 1,600
1.0034 1.0146 101.42 711.48
1,400
1.0257 1.0354 101.25 706.39
1.0451 1.0493 99.64 703.07 1,200
1.0536 1.0563 99.39 710.30 1,000

1.0589 1.0599 99.31 757.05
800
1.0610 1.0615 100.97 725.23
1.0621 1.0540 101.96 724.43 600
1.0459 1.0366 101.88 725.36 400

1.0273 1.0179 103.65 737.13
200
1.0086 0.9994 97.25 790.18
0.9902 0.9807 99.78 761.22 -
0 10 20 30
0.9711 0.9710 101.06 764.53
0.9708 0.9845 97.92 769.54
0.9982 0.9980 96.17 786.00
0.9978 1.0006 96.99 846.67
1.0034 1.0066 110.80 819.45
1.0098 1.0124 96.75 826.67
1.0150 0.9995 99.25 835.60
0.9841 0.9847 100.72 856.90
0.9852 0.9841 101.25 926.53
0.9830 0.9830 97.74 899.91
910.86
923.56
949.82
1,029.74
1,002.62
1,017.10
1,033.40
1,064.77
1,156.31
1,127.56
1,145.39
1,165.13
1,201.76
1,306.24
1,274.74
1,295.73
1,318.75
1,360.77
1,479.54
1,444.16
1,468.12
Cebada en grano METODO DE ANALISIS
Cebada en
grano a
f(x) = 0.452626394751906 x² − 14.8529080284938 x + 845.699535794792
R² = 0.48164523368316 757 0.50799624
843 0.50799624
841 0.50799624
878 0.50799624
844 0.50799624
927 0.50799624
697 0.50799624
750 0.50799624
627 0.50799624
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 676 0.50799624
707 0.50799624
690 0.50799624
641 0.50799624
695 0.50799624
PROYECCIONES ANUALES PARA 20 AÑOS 680 0.50799624
692 0.50799624
745 0.50799624
760 0.50799624
760 0.50799624
766 0.50799624
772 0.50799624
791 0.50799624
799 0.50799624
792 0.50799624
799 0.50799624
744 0.50799624
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 758 0.50799624
770 0.50799624
767 0.50799624
775 0.50799624
796 0.50799624
930 0.50799624
831 0.50799624
857 0.50799624
873 0.50799624
894 0.50799624
880 0.50799624
0.50799624
0.50799624
0.50799624
0.50799624
0.50799624
0.50799624
0.50799624
0.50799624
0.50799624
0.50799624
0.50799624
0.50799624
0.50799624
0.50799624
0.50799624
0.50799624
0.50799624
0.50799624
0.50799624
0.50799624
0.50799624
METODO DE ANALISIS DE DATOS
b c TENDENCIA COCIENTE
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 98.8232656
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 12.8232656
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 14.8232656 PROYECCION ANUAL DE LA CEBADA
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 22.1767344
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 11.8232656 1800
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 71.1767344 1600
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 158.823266 f(x) = 0.50799624467598 x² − 17.289026595132 x + 855.823265621344
1400 R² = 1
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 105.823266
1200
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 228.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 179.823266 1000
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 148.823266 800
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 165.823266 600
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 214.823266 400
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 160.823266
200
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 175.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 163.823266 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 110.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 95.8232656
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 95.8232656
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 89.8232656
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 83.8232656
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 64.8232656
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 56.8232656
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 63.8232656
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 56.8232656
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 111.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 97.8232656
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 85.8232656
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 88.8232656
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 80.8232656
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 59.8232656
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 74.1767344
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 24.8232656
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 1.17673438
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 17.1767344
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 38.5263687

17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 24.0244682
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 3358.13248
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266
17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266
Resumen
NUAL DE LA CEBADA Coeficiente d 0.10984413
R^2 ajustado 0.0844111
Observacione 37
289026595132 x + 855.823265621344
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Regresión 1 23232.3897 23232.3897 4.31895646
Residuos 35 188270.859 5379.16739
Total 36 211503.248
Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad

Intercepción 733.900816 24.6122346 29.8185365 1.8008E-26
0 40 50 60 70 Variable X 1 2.34689497 1.12928677 2.07820992 0.04508759
Observación
1 736.247711 20.7522887 0.28696287
2 738.594606 104.405394 1.44371887
3 740.941501 100.058499 1.38360997
4 743.288396 134.711604 1.86279346
5 745.635291 98.3647088 1.36018822
6 747.982186 179.017814 2.4754602
7 750.329081 -53.3290811 -0.73743509
8 752.675976 -2.67597607 -0.03700342
9 755.022871 -128.022871 -1.7703016
10 757.369766 -81.369766 -1.12518197
11 759.716661 -52.716661 -0.72896654
12 762.063556 -72.063556 -0.9964956
13 764.410451 -123.410451 -1.706521
14 766.757346 -71.7573459 -0.99226133

15 769.104241 -89.1042409 -1.23213437
16 771.451136 -79.4511358 -1.09865114
17 773.798031 -28.7980308 -0.39821947
18 776.144926 -16.1449258 -0.2232522
19 778.491821 -18.4918208 -0.25570509
20 780.838716 -14.8387157 -0.20518992
21 783.185611 -11.1856107 -0.15467474
22 785.532506 5.46749432 0.07560457
23 787.879401 11.1205994 0.15377576
24 790.226296 1.77370438 0.0245268
25 792.573191 6.42680941 0.08886999
26 794.920086 -50.9200856 -0.70412347
27 797.266981 -39.2669805 -0.54298422
28 799.613876 -29.6138755 -0.40950098
29 801.96077 -34.9607705 -0.4834379
30 804.307665 -29.3076655 -0.4052667
31 806.65456 -10.6545604 -0.14733137
32 809.001455 120.998545 1.67316914
33 811.34835 19.6516496 0.27174322
34 813.695245 43.3047547 0.5988186
35 816.04214 56.9578597 0.78761388
36 818.389035 75.960599 1.05038396
37 820.73593 59.1118036 0.81739864
200
150
100
Residuos
50
0
-50 0 5 10 15 20 25 3
-100
-150
Variable X 1
Valor crítico de F
0.04508759

Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%
Superior 95,0% Y Pronóstico para Y
683.935324 783.866309 683.935324 783.866309 1000
0.05432094 4.63946901 0.05432094 4.63946901 800
600
400
Y
200
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Resultados de datos de probabilidad Variable X 1
Percentil Y
1.35135135 627
4.05405405 641
6.75675676 676 Gráfico de probabilidad norma
9.45945946 680
1000
12.1621622 690
800
14.8648649 692
600
17.5675676 695
400
Y
20.2702703 697
200
22.972973 707
0
25.6756757 744 0 20 40 60 80
28.3783784 745 Muestra percentil
31.0810811 750
33.7837838 757
36.4864865 758
39.1891892 760
41.8918919 760
44.5945946 766
47.2972973 767
50 770
52.7027027 772
55.4054054 775
58.1081081 791
60.8108108 792
63.5135135 796
66.2162162 799
68.9189189 799
71.6216216 831
74.3243243 841
77.027027 843
79.7297297 844
82.4324324 857
85.1351351 873
87.8378378 878
90.5405405 879.847734
93.2432432 894.349634
95.9459459 927
98.6486486 930
fico de los residuales
15 20 25 30 35 40
Variable X 1
a de regresión ajustada
0 15 20 25 30 35 40
Variable X 1
o de probabilidad normal
40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
METODO ARIMA
CENTENO
ANUAL

Centeno
1 1983-1984 498 498 - 1 1.00 1.00044116
2 1984-1985 497 512 54 1.11 0.97055603
3 1985-1986 551 527 28 1.05 1.0460537 0.9851
4 1986-1987 579 542 - 111 0.81 1.06871446 0.9376
5 1987-1988 468 557 - 31 0.93 0.83995908 0.8875
6 1988-1989 437 573 - 13 0.97 0.76274003 0.8919
7 1989-1990 424 589 223 1.53 0.71978401 0.8703
8 1990-1991 647 606 - 49 0.92 1.06842617 0.9171
9 1991-1992 598 622 89 1.15 0.96075308 0.9642
10 1992-1993 687 640 - 31 0.95 1.07400807 1.0137
11 1993-1994 656 657 - 3 1.00 0.99808538 1.0690
12 1994-1995 653 675 280 1.43 0.96708705 1.0670
13 1995-1996 933 694 - 256 0.73 1.34524182 0.9886
14 1996-1997 677 712 - 178 0.74 0.95050308 0.9598
15 1997-1998 499 731 142 1.28 0.68232785 0.9343
16 1998-1999 641 751 6 1.01 0.85381012 0.8327
17 1999-2000 647 771 15 1.02 0.83965824 0.8014
18 2000-2001 662 791 - 18 0.97 0.8372142 0.8122
19 2001-2002 644 811 - 31 0.95 0.79383628 0.8006
20 2002-2003 613 832 66 1.11 0.73664604 0.8087
21 2003-2004 679 853 91 1.13 0.79562568 0.8209
22 2004-2005 770 875 36 1.05 0.87995012 0.8553
23 2005-2006 806 897 82 1.10 0.89850104 0.9035
24 2006-2007 888 919 33 1.04 0.96583006 0.8604
25 2007-2008 921 942 - 361 0.61 0.97755135 0.7987
26 2008-2009 560 965 5 1.01 0.58016034 0.7314
27 2009-2010 565 989 4 1.01 0.5714473 0.6495
28 2010-2011 569 1,013 8 1.01 0.56194667 0.5641
29 2011-2012 577 1,037 7 1.01 0.55654561 0.5795
30 2012-2013 584 1,061 130 1.22 0.55025817 0.6021
31 2013-2014 714 1,086 47 1.07 0.65730459 0.6253
32 2014-2015 761 1,112 10 1.01 0.68462612 0.6473
33 2015-2016 771 1,137 4 1.01 0.67796694 0.6695
34 2016-2017(p) 775 1,163 12 1.02 0.66623203 0.6725
35 2017-2018(p) 787 1,190 31 1.04 0.66153355 0.6623
36 2018-2019(p) 0.67212008 0.6584
818 1,216 - 29 0.96
37 2019-2020(p) 788 1,244 - 788 - 0.63386448 0.6558
38 2021 1,271 6.05 1.03 MEDIA
39 2022 1,299 120.26 0.20 DESV. EST.
40 2023 1,327 19.87 0.19 CV
41 2024 1,356
42 2025 1,385
43 2026 1,414
44 2027 1,444
45 2028 1,474
46 2029 1,504
47 2030 1,535
48 2031 1,566
49 2032 1,598
50 2033 1,630
51 2034 1,662
52 2035 1,695
53 2036 1,728
54 2037 1,761
55 2038 1,795
56 2039 1,829
57 2040 1,863
58 2041 1,898
Centeno
1,000
900
Centro Indice Estacionali Normalizad Proyección 800
dad o 700 f(x) = − 0.183373691877484 x² + 13.7471181498933 x + 4
464.23 R² = 0.337887953121857
600
484.53
500
0.9614 108.81 109.3549 107.53 566.42
400
0.9125 117.12 103.3912 101.67 550.81
0.8897 94.41 97.5419 95.92 534.42 300
0.8811 86.56 94.8392 93.26 534.32 200
0.8937 80.54 96.2240 94.62 557.38 100
0.9407 113.58 501.3513 493.00 651.18 -
0.9889 97.15 632.82 0 5 10 15 20 25
1.0414 103.14 613.54

1.0680 93.45 612.96
1.0278 94.09 638.90
0.9742 138.08 745.80
0.9471 100.36 724.14
0.8835 77.23 701.46
0.8170 104.50 700.15
0.8068 104.07 729.11 PROYECCION ANUAL PARA 20 AÑ
0.8064 103.82 850.28 2,500
0.8046 98.66 824.79
0.8148 90.41 798.17 2,000
0.8381 94.93 795.89
0.8794 100.06 827.98
1,500
0.8819 101.88 964.63
0.8295 116.43 934.76
0.7650 127.78 903.68 1,000
0.6905 84.03 900.19

0.6068 94.17 935.54 500
0.5718 98.28 1,088.83
0.5908 94.20 1,054.06 -
0.6137 89.66 1,017.99 0 10 20 30 40 50
0.6363 103.30 1,013.03

0.6584 103.98 1,051.77
0.6710 101.04 1,222.89
0.6674 99.82 1,182.67
0.6604 100.17 1,141.09
0.6571 102.28 1,134.43
0.6558 96.65 1,176.67
1,366.82
1,320.61
1,272.98
1,264.39
1,310.26
1,520.60
1,467.88
1,413.67
1,402.89
1,452.52
1,684.25
1,624.46
1,563.16
1,549.94
1,603.46
1,857.76
1,790.37
1,721.44
1,705.55
1,763.07
2,041.13
Centeno METODO DE ANALISIS DE DATOS
DESCRIPCIÓ
T N Centeno a
1984
91877484 x² + 13.7471181498933 x + 483.848792551904 1 498 447.213772
121857 2 1985 497 447.213772
3 1986 551 447.213772
4 1987 579 447.213772
5 1988 468 447.213772
6 1989 437 447.213772
7 1990 424 447.213772
8 1991 647 447.213772
9 1992 598 447.213772
15 20 25 30 35 40 10 1993 447.213772
687
11 1994 656 447.213772
12 1995 653 447.213772
13 1996 933 447.213772
14 1997 677 447.213772
15 1998 499 447.213772
16 1999 641 447.213772
17 2000 647 447.213772
ION ANUAL PARA 20 AÑOS 18 2001 662 447.213772
19 2002 644 447.213772
20 2003 613 447.213772
21 2004 679 447.213772
22 2005 770 447.213772
23 2006 806 447.213772
24 2007 888 447.213772
25 2008 921 447.213772
26 2009 560 447.213772
27 2010 565 447.213772
28 2011 569 447.213772
29 2012 577 447.213772
30 2013 584 447.213772
0 30 40 50 60 70 31 2014 447.213772
714
32 2015 761 447.213772
33 2016 771 447.213772
34 2017 775 447.213772
35 2018 787 447.213772
36 2019 818 447.213772
2020
37 788 447.213772
38 2021 447.213772
39 2022 447.213772
40 2023 447.213772
41 2024 447.213772
42 2025 447.213772
43 2026 447.213772
44 2027 447.213772
45 2028 447.213772
46 2029 447.213772
47 2030 447.213772
48 2031 447.213772
49 2032 447.213772
50 2033 447.213772
51 2034 447.213772
52 2035 447.213772
53 2036 447.213772
54 2037 447.213772
55 2038 447.213772
56 2039 447.213772
57 2040 447.213772
58 2041 447.213772
ANALISIS DE DATOS PROYECCION DEL CENTENO
b tend cociente 1000
900
0.15233588 447.213772 50.7862276 800 f(x) = 447.213772370904 x^0.152335875278621

R² = 0.999999999999999
0.15233588 497.018824 0.01882404 700
0.15233588 528.686053 22.3139471 600
0.15233588 552.370537 26.6294633 500
0.15233588 571.469922 103.469922 400
0.15233588 587.564464 150.564464 300
0.15233588 601.525329 177.525329 200
0.15233588 613.886628 33.1133723
100
0.15233588 625.000749 27.0007486
0
0.15233588 635.113062 51.8869378 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
0.15233588 644.401638 11.5983618
0.15233588 653.000012 1.20577E-05
0.15233588 661.011028 271.988972
0.15233588 668.515663 8.4843369
0.15233588 675.578875 176.578875
0.15233588 682.253608 41.2536081
0.15233588 688.583613 41.5836129
0.15233588 694.60548 32.6054801
0.15233588 700.350138 56.3501382
0.15233588 705.843976 92.8439762
0.15233588 711.109701 32.1097007
0.15233588 716.166997 53.8330029
0.15233588 721.033049 84.9669509
0.15233588 725.72295 162.27705
0.15233588 730.250032 190.749968
0.15233588 734.626132 174.626132
0.15233588 738.861813 173.861813
0.15233588 742.966539 173.966539
0.15233588 746.948825 169.948825
0.15233588 750.816363 166.816363
0.15233588 754.576123 40.5761227
0.15233588 758.234444 2.76555615
0.15233588 761.797108 9.20289178
0.15233588 765.269405 9.73059493
0.15233588 768.656186 18.3438141
0.15233588 771.961912 45.6240433
0.15233588 775.190696 13.0600971

0.15233588 778.346338 2899.05607
0.15233588 781.432355
0.15233588 784.452011
0.15233588 787.408339
0.15233588 790.304166
0.15233588 793.142125
0.15233588 795.92468
0.15233588 798.654136
0.15233588 801.332652
0.15233588 803.962256
0.15233588 806.544855
0.15233588 809.082241
0.15233588 811.576106
0.15233588 814.028044
0.15233588 816.439562
0.15233588 818.812084
0.15233588 821.14696
0.15233588 823.445467
0.15233588 825.708818
0.15233588 827.938165
0.15233588 830.134602
Resumen
EL CENTENO
5278621 Estadísticas de la regresión

R^2 ajustado 0.29727319
Observacione 37
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
40 50 60 70 Regresión 1 193832.822 193832.822 16.2290116
Residuos 35 418025.998 11943.5999
Total 36 611858.82

Intercepción 529.142094 36.6742416 14.4281673 2.6687E-16
Variable X 1 6.77891786 1.68272961 4.02852474 0.00028745
Observación
1 535.921012 -37.9210123 -0.35190831
2 542.69993 -45.6999302 -0.42409694
3 549.478848 1.52115198 0.01411634
4 556.257766 22.7422341 0.21104872
5 563.036684 -95.0366837 -0.88194373
6 569.815602 -132.815602 -1.2325334
7 576.594519 -152.594519 -1.41608245
8 583.373437 63.6265627 0.59045672
9 590.152355 7.84764483 0.07282642
10 596.931273 90.068727 0.83584092
11 603.710191 52.2898091 0.48525125
12 610.489109 42.5108913 0.39450255
13 617.268027 315.731973 2.9300037
14 624.046944 52.9530555 0.4914062
15 630.825862 -131.825862 -1.22334859

16 637.60478 3.39521982 0.03150776
17 644.383698 2.61630196 0.02427937
18 651.162616 10.8373841 0.1005713
19 657.941534 -13.9415338 -0.12937792
20 664.720452 -51.7204516 -0.47996759
21 671.499369 7.50063052 0.06960611
22 678.278287 91.7217127 0.85118068
23 685.057205 120.942795 1.12235334
24 691.836123 196.163877 1.8204076
25 698.615041 222.384959 2.06374016
26 705.393959 -145.393959 -1.349261
27 712.172877 -147.172877 -1.36576941
28 718.951794 -149.951794 -1.39155787
29 725.730712 -148.730712 -1.38022618
30 732.50963 -148.50963 -1.37817453
31 739.288548 -25.2885481 -0.23467861
32 746.067466 14.9325341 0.13857444
33 752.846384 18.1536162 0.16846619
34 759.625302 15.3746984 0.14267774
35 766.404219 20.5957805 0.19112956
36 773.183137 44.4028182 0.4120597
37 779.962055 8.28873832 0.07691978
400
300
200
Residuos
100
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
-100
-200
Variable X 1
Valor crítico de F
0.00028745
1000
800
Superior 95,0% 600
454.689426 603.594763 454.689426 603.594763 Y 400
200
3.36279514 10.1950406 3.36279514 10.1950406
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Variable X 1
Percentil Y Gráfico de probabilidad norma

1.35135135 424
1000
4.05405405 437
800
6.75675676 468
600
9.45945946 497
400
Y
12.1621622 498
200
14.8648649 499
0
17.5675676 551 0 20 40 60 80
20.2702703 560 Muestra percentil
22.972973 565
25.6756757 569
28.3783784 577
31.0810811 579
33.7837838 584
36.4864865 598
39.1891892 613
41.8918919 641
44.5945946 644
47.2972973 647
50 647
52.7027027 653
55.4054054 656
58.1081081 662
60.8108108 677
63.5135135 679
66.2162162 687
68.9189189 714
71.6216216 761
74.3243243 770
77.027027 771
79.7297297 775
82.4324324 787
85.1351351 788.250794
87.8378378 806
90.5405405 817.585956
93.2432432 888
95.9459459 921
98.6486486 933
fico de los residuales
0 15 20 25 30 35 40
Variable X 1
10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Variable X 1
40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
METODO ARIMA
MAIZ EN GRANO
ANUAL

Maíz en grano
1 1983-1984 1,493 1,282 149 1.10 1.16438223
2 1984-1985 1,642 1,367 - 71 0.96 1.20150444
3 1985-1986 1,571 1,448 - 21 0.99 1.08503092 1.0832
4 1986-1987 1,550 1,526 - 30 0.98 1.01571408 1.0335
5 1987-1988 1,520 1,601 12 1.01 0.9493918 0.9491
6 1988-1989 1,532 1,673 - 174 0.89 0.915775 0.9465
7 1989-1990 1,358 1,742 579 1.43 0.77972262 0.9208
8 1990-1991 1,937 1,807 - 278 0.86 1.07178823 0.9311
9 1991-1992 1,659 1,870 272 1.16 0.88728677 0.9508
10 1992-1993 1,931 1,929 83 1.04 1.00098492 0.9935
11 1993-1994 2,014 1,985 10 1.00 1.01444348 0.9804
12 1994-1995 2,024 2,038 78 1.04 0.99292589 0.9995
13 1995-1996 2,102 2,088 - 4 1.00 1.00651939 0.9618
14 1996-1997 2,098 2,135 - 327 0.84 0.98256854 0.9475
15 1997-1998 1,771 2,179 321 1.18 0.81278612 0.9221
16 1998-1999 2,092 2,220 - 137 0.93 0.94255463 0.9082
17 1999-2000 1,955 2,257 192 1.10 0.86621517 0.9088
18 2000-2001 2,147 2,291 142 1.07 0.93703901 0.9678
19 2001-2002 2,289 2,322 314 1.14 0.98559923 0.9497
20 2002-2003 2,603 2,351 - 579 0.78 1.10742395 0.9985
21 2003-2004 2,024 2,375 638 1.32 0.85205805 1.0538
22 2004-2005 2,662 2,397 270 1.10 1.11045294 1.0814
23 2005-2006 2,932 2,416 - 200 0.93 1.21363393 1.0780
24 2006-2007 2,732 2,431 - 68 0.98 1.12362323 1.1538
25 2007-2008 2,664 2,444 356 1.13 1.09009442 1.1378
26 2008-2009 3,020 2,453 - 486 0.84 1.23109535 1.0982
27 2009-2010 2,534 2,459 - 33 0.99 1.03039754 1.0742
28 2010-2011 2,501 2,462 - 30 0.99 1.01573351 1.0261
29 2011-2012 2,471 2,462 - 382 0.85 1.00359646 0.9570
30 2012-2013 2,089 2,459 83 1.04 0.84956688 0.9468
31 2013-2014 2,172 2,453 221 1.10 0.88561788 0.9491
32 2014-2015 2,393 2,443 104 1.04 0.97952534 0.9345
33 2015-2016 2,497 2,430 - 250 0.90 1.02740924 0.9924
34 2016-2017(p) 2,247 2,415 481 1.21 0.93058121 0.9930
35 2017-2018(p) 2,728 2,396 - 618 0.77 1.13869497 0.9894
36 2018-2019(p) 0.88877602 0.9799
2,110 2,374 148 1.07
37 2019-2020(p) 2,258 2,349 - 2,258 - 0.96146364 0.9963
38 2021 2,320 58.42 1.04 MEDIA
39 2022 2,289 214.98 0.13 DESV. EST.
40 2023 2,254 3.68 0.13 CV
41 2024 2,217
42 2025 2,176
43 2026 2,132
44 2027 2,085
45 2028 2,035
46 2029 1,981
47 2030 1,925
48 2031 1,865
49 2032 1,803
50 2033 1,737
51 2034 1,668
52 2035 1,596
53 2036 1,520
54 2037 1,442
55 2038 1,361
56 2039 1,276
57 2040 1,188
58 2041 1,097
Maíz en grano (1)
3,500
Centro Indice Estacionali Normalizad Proyección 3,000
dad o
2,500
1,275.22 f(x) = − 1.56541075044203 x² + 89.090023198474
1,295.74 R² = 0.688389807209956
2,000
1.0583 102.52 104.8992 102.85 1,489.15
0.9913 102.46 99.6294 97.68 1,490.67 1,500
0.9478 100.17 100.1557 98.20 1,572.20

1,000
0.9336 98.09 101.4348 99.45 1,663.76
0.9260 84.21 96.7020 94.81 1,651.31 500
0.9410 113.90 502.8211 493.00 1,858.77
-
0.9722 91.27 1,826.43 0 5 10 15 20 25
0.9870 101.42 1,894.37
0.9900 102.47 1,974.48
0.9807 101.25 1,932.69
0.9547 105.43 2,147.91
0.9348 105.11 2,085.76
PROYECCION ANUAL PARA
0.9152 88.81 2,139.69
0.9085 103.74 2,207.37 3,500
0.9383 92.32 2,139.88 3,000

0.9587 97.74 2,356.57
0.9741 101.18 2,268.65 2,500
1.0262 107.92 2,308.18
2,000
1.0676 79.81 2,362.45
1.0797 102.85 2,272.88 1,500
1.1159 108.76 2,484.74
1,000
1.1458 98.07 2,375.10
1.1180 97.51 2,399.82 500
1.0862 113.34 2,439.70
-
1.0501 98.12 2,331.69 0 10 20 30 40
0.9915 102.44 2,532.44
0.9519 105.43 2,405.11
0.9480 89.62 2,414.63
0.9418 94.03 2,439.12
0.9635 101.67 2,316.31
0.9927 103.50 2,499.66
0.9912 93.89 2,358.68
0.9846 115.65 2,352.59
0.9881 89.95 2,360.73
0.9963 96.50 2,226.73
2,386.39
2,235.82
2,213.71
2,204.51
2,062.96
2,192.65
2,036.52
1,997.99
1,970.47
1,825.01
1,918.43
1,760.79
1,705.43
1,658.61
1,512.86
1,563.72
1,408.62
1,336.03
1,268.93
1,126.52
1,128.53
Maíz en grano (1)
METODO DE ANALISIS
DESCRIPCIÓ
N Maíz en
T grano (1) a
075044203 x² + 89.0900231984744 x + 1194.69015932371 1 1984 1,493 -1.56504013
07209956 2 1985 1,642 -1.56504013
3 1986 1,571 -1.56504013
4 1987 1,550 -1.56504013
5 1988 1,520 -1.56504013
6 1989 1,532 -1.56504013
7 1990 1,358 -1.56504013
8 1991 1,937 -1.56504013
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 9 1992 1,659 -1.56504013
10 1993 1,931 -1.56504013
11 1994 2,014 -1.56504013
12 1995 2,024 -1.56504013
13 1996 2,102 -1.56504013
14 1997 2,098 -1.56504013
ECCION ANUAL PARA 20 AÑOS
15 1998 1,771 -1.56504013
16 1999 2,092 -1.56504013
17 2000 1,955 -1.56504013
18 2001 2,147 -1.56504013
19 2002 2,289 -1.56504013
20 2003 2,603 -1.56504013
21 2004 2,024 -1.56504013
22 2005 2,662 -1.56504013
23 2006 2,932 -1.56504013
24 2007 2,732 -1.56504013
25 2008 2,664 -1.56504013
26 2009 3,020 -1.56504013
20 30 40 50 60 70 27 2010 2,534 -1.56504013
28 2011 2,501 -1.56504013
29 2012 2,471 -1.56504013
30 2013 2,089 -1.56504013
31 2014 2,172 -1.56504013
32 2015 2,393 -1.56504013
33 2016 2,497 -1.56504013
34 2017 2,247 -1.56504013
35 2018 2,728 -1.56504013
2019
36 2,110 -1.56504013
37 2020 2,258 -1.56504013
38 2021 -1.56504013
39 2022 -1.56504013
40 2023 -1.56504013
41 2024 -1.56504013
42 2025 -1.56504013
43 2026 -1.56504013
44 2027 -1.56504013
45 2028 -1.56504013
46 2029 -1.56504013
47 2030 -1.56504013
48 2031 -1.56504013
49 2032 -1.56504013
50 2033 -1.56504013
51 2034 -1.56504013
52 2035 -1.56504013
53 2036 -1.56504013
54 2037 -1.56504013
55 2038 -1.56504013
56 2039 -1.56504013
57 2040 -1.56504013
58 2041 -1.56504013
DO DE ANALISIS DE DATOS
PROYECCION DE MAIZ EN GRANO
3500
b c tend cociente
90.2555975 1404.30827 1492.99883 0.00117042 3000
90.2555975 1404.30827 1578.55931 63.4406933 f(x) = − 1.56504013364015 x² + 90.2555975215841 x + 1404.308
2500
90.2555975 1404.30827 1660.9897 89.9897036 R² = 1
90.2555975 1404.30827 1740.29002 190.29002 2000
90.2555975 1404.30827 1816.46026 296.460256
1500
90.2555975 1404.30827 1889.50041 357.500413
90.2555975 1404.30827 1959.41049 601.410488 1000
90.2555975 1404.30827 2026.19048 89.1904838
500
90.2555975 1404.30827 2089.8404 430.840399
90.2555975 1404.30827 2150.36023 219.360234 0
0 10 20 30 40 50
90.2555975 1404.30827 2207.74999 193.749989
90.2555975 1404.30827 2262.00966 238.009663
90.2555975 1404.30827 2313.13926 211.139257
90.2555975 1404.30827 2361.13877 263.138771
90.2555975 1404.30827 2406.0082 635.008205
90.2555975 1404.30827 2447.74756 355.747558
90.2555975 1404.30827 2486.35683 531.356831
90.2555975 1404.30827 2521.83602 374.836024
90.2555975 1404.30827 2554.18514 265.185137
90.2555975 1404.30827 2583.40417 19.5958308
90.2555975 1404.30827 2609.49312 585.493121
90.2555975 1404.30827 2632.45199 29.548007
90.2555975 1404.30827 2652.28078 279.719216
90.2555975 1404.30827 2668.9795 63.0205043
90.2555975 1404.30827 2682.54813 18.5481267
90.2555975 1404.30827 2692.98668 327.013323
90.2555975 1404.30827 2700.29515 166.295148
90.2555975 1404.30827 2704.47354 203.473538
90.2555975 1404.30827 2705.52185 234.521848
90.2555975 1404.30827 2703.44008 614.440078
90.2555975 1404.30827 2698.22823 526.228227
90.2555975 1404.30827 2689.8863 296.886296
90.2555975 1404.30827 2678.41428 181.414285
90.2555975 1404.30827 2663.81219 416.812193
90.2555975 1404.30827 2646.08002 81.9199783
90.2555975 1404.30827 2625.21777 515.530136

90.2555975 1404.30827 2601.22544 343.184806
90.2555975 1404.30827 2574.10303 10310.3
90.2555975 1404.30827 2543.85053
90.2555975 1404.30827 2510.46796
90.2555975 1404.30827 2473.95531
90.2555975 1404.30827 2434.31257
90.2555975 1404.30827 2391.53976
90.2555975 1404.30827 2345.63686
90.2555975 1404.30827 2296.60389
90.2555975 1404.30827 2244.44084
90.2555975 1404.30827 2189.1477
90.2555975 1404.30827 2130.72449
90.2555975 1404.30827 2069.17119
90.2555975 1404.30827 2004.48781
90.2555975 1404.30827 1936.67436
90.2555975 1404.30827 1865.73082
90.2555975 1404.30827 1791.65721
90.2555975 1404.30827 1714.45351
90.2555975 1404.30827 1634.11973
90.2555975 1404.30827 1550.65587
90.2555975 1404.30827 1464.06194
90.2555975 1404.30827 1374.33792
N DE MAIZ EN GRANO
Resumen
+ 90.2555975215841 x + 1404.30827218829
R^2 ajustado 0.53587023
Observacione 37
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
30 40 50 60 70
Regresión 1 3696745.33 3696745.33
Residuos 35 3039764.21 86850.4059
Total 36 6736509.54

Intercepción 1581.34661 98.8961633 15.9899693
Variable X 1 29.6044147 4.53766718 6.52414854
Observación
1 1610.95103 -117.951029 -0.40591307
2 1640.55544 1.44455595 0.00497125
3 1670.15986 -99.1598587 -0.34124571
4 1699.76427 -149.764273 -0.5153942
5 1729.36869 -209.368688 -0.72051501
6 1758.9731 -226.973103 -0.78109831
7 1788.57752 -430.577517 -1.48177632
8 1818.18193 118.818068 0.40889687
9 1847.78635 -188.786347 -0.64968357
10 1877.39076 53.6092385 0.1844892
11 1906.99518 107.004824 0.36824313
12 1936.59959 87.4004091 0.3007771
13 1966.20401 135.795994 0.46732419

14 1995.80842 102.19158 0.35167898
15 2025.41283 -254.412835 -0.87552856
16 2055.01725 36.9827504 0.12727131
17 2084.62166 -129.621664 -0.44607604
18 2114.22608 32.773921 0.11278717
19 2143.83049 145.169506 0.49958191
20 2173.43491 429.565092 1.47829219
21 2203.03932 -179.039323 -0.61614046
22 2232.64374 429.356262 1.47757353
23 2262.24815 669.751848 2.30486356
24 2291.85257 440.147433 1.51470994
25 2321.45698 342.543018 1.17881709
26 2351.0614 668.938604 2.30206489
27 2380.66581 153.334189 0.5276796
28 2410.27023 90.7297742 0.31223468
29 2439.87464 31.1253595 0.10711386
30 2469.47906 -380.479055 -1.30936901
31 2499.08347 -327.08347 -1.12561507
32 2528.68788 -135.687884 -0.46695214
33 2558.2923 -61.2922992 -0.21092945
34 2587.89671 -340.896714 -1.17315154
35 2617.50113 110.498871 0.38026744
36 2647.10554 -537.41791 -1.84945359
37 2676.70996 -418.669327 -1.44079584
Gráfico de los
800
600
400
Residuos
200
0
-200 0 5 10 15
-400
-600
Variab
42.5645142 1.58492E-07
Curva de regres
Y Pronóstic
4000
Superior 95,0% 3000
2000
1.16016E-17 1380.57673 1782.1165 1380.57673 1782.1165
Y
1000
1.58492E-07 20.3924606 38.8163688 20.3924606 38.8163688 0
0 5 10 15
Variab
uos estándares Percentil Y

1.35135135 1358
4.05405405 1493
6.75675676 1520 Gráfico de probab
9.45945946 1532 3500
3000
12.1621622 1550 2500
14.8648649 1571 2000
17.5675676 1642 1500
Y
1000
20.2702703 1659 500
22.972973 1771 0
0 20 40
25.6756757 1931 Muestra
28.3783784 1937
31.0810811 1955
33.7837838 2014
36.4864865 2024
39.1891892 2024
41.8918919 2089
44.5945946 2092
47.2972973 2098
50 2102
52.7027027 2109.68763
55.4054054 2147
58.1081081 2172
60.8108108 2247
63.5135135 2258.04063
66.2162162 2289
68.9189189 2393
71.6216216 2471
74.3243243 2497
77.027027 2501
79.7297297 2534
82.4324324 2603
85.1351351 2662
87.8378378 2664
90.5405405 2728
93.2432432 2732
95.9459459 2932
98.6486486 3020
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Variable X 1

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Variable X 1
20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
METODO ARIMA
QUINUA
ANUAL

Quínua
1 1983-1984 487 402 - 72 0.85 1.21293119
2 1984-1985 415 407 9 1.02 1.01917423
3 1985-1986 424 413 - 48 0.89 1.02689023 1.0134
4 1986-1987 376 419 10 1.03 0.89818757 0.9354
5 1987-1988 386 424 - 32 0.92 0.90959755 0.9238
6 1988-1989 354 430 65 1.18 0.82301618 0.9376
7 1989-1990 419 436 65 1.16 0.96121663 0.9139
8 1990-1991 484 442 - 135 0.72 1.09575246 0.9265
9 1991-1992 349 448 92 1.26 0.77984592 0.9514
10 1992-1993 441 453 - 6 0.99 0.97273261 0.9445
11 1993-1994 435 459 - 4 0.99 0.94726108 0.9648
12 1994-1995 431 465 133 1.31 0.92669359 1.0579
13 1995-1996 564 471 30 1.05 1.19747994 1.0444
14 1996-1997 594 477 - 157 0.74 1.24553683 1.0792
15 1997-1998 437 483 111 1.25 0.90507015 1.1202
16 1998-1999 548 489 12 1.02 1.12114229 1.0908
17 1999-2000 560 495 - 34 0.94 1.13186672 1.0509
18 2000-2001 526 501 4 1.01 1.0504294 1.0699
19 2001-2002 530 507 - 17 0.97 1.04586761 1.0466
20 2002-2003 513 513 8 1.02 1.00042123 1.0137
21 2003-2004 521 519 - 13 0.98 1.00418113 0.9845
22 2004-2005 508 525 - 28 0.94 0.96781003 0.9414
23 2005-2006 480 531 - 34 0.93 0.90398698 0.9132
24 2006-2007 446 537 21 1.05 0.8304089 0.9246
25 2007-2008 467 543 116 1.25 0.85970831 0.9287
26 2008-2009 583 549 - 34 0.94 1.06125575 0.9484
27 2009-2010 549 556 14 1.03 0.98828122 0.9841
28 2010-2011 563 562 10 1.02 1.00233296 1.0247
29 2011-2012 573 568 37 1.06 1.00900124 1.0182
30 2012-2013 610 574 - 13 0.98 1.06252156 1.0329
31 2013-2014 597 580 26 1.04 1.02870252 1.0183
32 2014-2015 623 587 - 72 0.88 1.0620554 1.0181
33 2015-2016 551 593 53 1.10 0.92937258 1.0151
34 2016-2017(p) 604 599 30 1.05 1.00806654 1.0066
35 2017-2018(p) 634 605 - 31 0.95 1.04710399 0.9899
36 2018-2019(p) 0.98619207 1.0050
603 612 2 1.00
37 2019-2020(p) 605 618 - 605 - 0.97879214 1.0040
38 2021 625 1.37 1.02 MEDIA
39 2022 631 72.91 0.16 DESV. EST.
40 2023 637 53.28 0.16 CV
41 2024 644
42 2025 650
43 2026 657
44 2027 663
45 2028 670
46 2029 676
47 2030 683
48 2031 689
49 2032 696
50 2033 702
51 2034 709
52 2035 716
53 2036 722
54 2037 729
55 2038 736
56 2039 742
57 2040 749
58 2041 756
Centro Indice Estacionali Normalizad Proyección Quínua
dad o
700
383.31
408.33 600 f(x) = 0.00952617705896456 x² + 5.65723551519564
0.9744 105.39 103.2258 102.92 424.93 R² = 0.635735371633658
500
0.9296 96.62 97.5234 97.23 407.03
0.9307 97.74 97.4007 97.11 412.09 400
0.9257 88.91 95.7546 95.47 410.63
300
0.9202 104.46 100.5824 100.28 437.13
0.9389 116.70 494.4868 493.00 454.58 200
0.9479 82.27 435.13
100
0.9546 101.90 440.25
1.0114 93.66 438.40 -
0 5 10 15 20 25
1.0512 88.16 466.40
1.0618 112.78 484.72
1.0997 113.26 463.69
1.1055 81.87 468.87
1.0708 104.70 466.63
1.0604 106.74 496.14
1.0582 99.26 515.35
1.0301 101.53 492.72
0.9991 100.13 497.95 PROYECCION PARA 20 AÑ
0.9629 104.29 495.31
900
0.9273 104.37 526.37
800
0.9189 98.37 546.46
0.9267 89.61 522.21 700
0.9386 91.60 527.50 600

0.9663 109.83 524.45 500
1.0044 98.40 557.06
400
1.0214 98.13 578.07
300
1.0255 98.39 552.16
1.0256 103.60 557.50 200
1.0182 101.03 554.03 100

1.0166 104.47 588.24 -
0 10 20 30 40
1.0108 91.94 610.16
0.9982 100.99 582.57
0.9975 104.98 587.97
1.0045 98.17 584.08
1.0040 97.49 619.89
642.74
613.44
618.90
614.57
652.02
675.81
644.78
650.28
645.52
684.63
709.37
676.58
682.13
676.92
717.71
743.42
708.84
714.45
708.78
751.26
777.95
METODO DE ANALISIS DE DA
Quínua DESCRIPCIÓ
N
T Quínua
1 1984 487
617705896456 x² + 5.65723551519564 x + 395.836654949236 2 1985 415
371633658 3 1986 424
4 1987 376
5 1988 386
6 1989 354
7 1990 419
8 1991 484
9 1992 349
10 1993 441
11 1994 435
10 15 20 25 30 35 40
12 1995 431
13 1996 564
14 1997 594
15 1998 437
16 1999 548
17 2000 560
18 2001 526
19 2002 530
ROYECCION PARA 20 AÑOS 20 2003 513
21 2004 521
22 2005 508
23 2006 480
24 2007 446
25 2008 467
26 2009 583
27 2010 549
28 2011 563
29 2012 573
30 2013 610
31 2014 597
32 2015 623
20 30 40 50 60 70
33 2016 551
34 2017 604
35 2018 634
2019
36 603.36
37 2020 605.05
38 2021 606.74
39 2022 608.43
40 2023 610.12
41 2024 611.81
42 2025 613.50
43 2026 615.18
44 2027 616.87
45 2028 618.56
46 2029 620.25
47 2030 621.94
48 2031 623.63
49 2032 625.32
50 2033 627.00
51 2034 628.69
52 2035 630.38
53 2036 632.07
54 2037 633.76
55 2038 635.45
56 2039 637.14
57 2040 638.83
58 2041 640.51
METODO DE ANALISIS DE DATO
PROYECCION ANUAL DE LA QUIN

a b tend cocien
900
6.7777592 373.222408 380.000167 106.999833
800
6.7777592 373.222408 386.777926 28.2220736
f(x) = 6.77775920128738 x + 373.222408000775
6.7777592 373.222408 393.555686 30.4443144 700
R² = 1
6.7777592 373.222408 400.333445 24.3334448 600
6.7777592 373.222408 407.111204 21.111204 500
6.7777592 373.222408 413.888963 59.8889632
400
6.7777592 373.222408 420.666722 1.66672241
300
6.7777592 373.222408 427.444482 56.5555184
6.7777592 373.222408 434.222241 85.2222408 200
6.7777592 373.222408 441 1.36486E-08 100

6.7777592 373.222408 447.777759 12.7777592 0
0 10 20 30 40 50
6.7777592 373.222408 454.555518 23.5555184
6.7777592 373.222408 461.333278 102.666722
6.7777592 373.222408 468.111037 125.888963
6.7777592 373.222408 474.888796 37.888796
6.7777592 373.222408 481.666555 66.3334448
6.7777592 373.222408 488.444314 71.5556856
6.7777592 373.222408 495.222074 30.7779264
6.7777592 373.222408 501.999833 28.0001672
6.7777592 373.222408 508.777592 4.22240797
6.7777592 373.222408 515.555351 5.44464877
6.7777592 373.222408 522.33311 14.3331104
6.7777592 373.222408 529.11087 49.1108696
6.7777592 373.222408 535.888629 89.8886288
6.7777592 373.222408 542.666388 75.666388
6.7777592 373.222408 549.444147 33.5558528
6.7777592 373.222408 556.221906 7.22190644
6.7777592 373.222408 562.999666 0.00033436
6.7777592 373.222408 569.777425 3.22257516
6.7777592 373.222408 576.555184 33.444816
6.7777592 373.222408 583.332943 13.6670568
6.7777592 373.222408 590.110702 32.8892976
6.7777592 373.222408 596.888462 45.8884616
6.7777592 373.222408 603.666221 0.33377916
6.7777592 373.222408 610.44398 23.55602
6.7777592 373.222408 617.221739 13.858388

6.7777592 373.222408 623.999498 18.9474876
6.7777592 373.222408 630.777258 1379.14133
6.7777592 373.222408 637.555017
6.7777592 373.222408 644.332776
6.7777592 373.222408 651.110535
6.7777592 373.222408 657.888294
6.7777592 373.222408 664.666054
6.7777592 373.222408 671.443813
6.7777592 373.222408 678.221572
6.7777592 373.222408 684.999331
6.7777592 373.222408 691.77709
6.7777592 373.222408 698.55485
6.7777592 373.222408 705.332609
6.7777592 373.222408 712.110368
6.7777592 373.222408 718.888127
6.7777592 373.222408 725.665886
6.7777592 373.222408 732.443646
6.7777592 373.222408 739.221405
6.7777592 373.222408 745.999164
6.7777592 373.222408 752.776923
6.7777592 373.222408 759.554682
6.7777592 373.222408 766.332442
ION ANUAL DE LA QUINUA
Resumen
x + 373.222408000775
R^2 ajustado 0.6251788
Observacione 37
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Regresión 1 152822.918 152822.918
30 40 50 60 70
Residuos 35 87619.5008 2503.41431
Total 36 240442.419

Intercepción -11542.6499 1542.35138 -7.4838004
Variable X 1 6.01923024 0.77039433 7.81318088
Observación
1 399.502919 87.4970805 1.77355404
2 405.52215 9.4778503 0.19211475
3 411.54138 12.4586201 0.25253455
4 417.56061 -41.5606102 -0.84242797
5 423.57984 -37.5798404 -0.7617383
6 429.599071 -75.5990707 -1.53238298
7 435.618301 -16.6183009 -0.33685072
8 441.637531 42.3624688 0.85868154
9 447.656761 -98.6567614 -1.99975927
10 453.675992 -12.6759917 -0.25694064
11 459.695222 -24.6952219 -0.50056882
12 465.714452 -34.7144521 -0.70365727
13 471.733682 92.2663176 1.87022583

14 477.752913 116.247087 2.3563128
15 483.772143 -46.7721429 -0.94806504
16 489.791373 58.2086269 1.17988103
17 495.810603 64.1893966 1.30111042
18 501.829834 24.1701664 0.48992602
19 507.849064 22.1509362 0.44899649
20 513.868294 -0.86829408 -0.0176002
21 519.887524 1.11247567 0.02254973
22 525.906755 -17.9067546 -0.3629675
23 531.925985 -51.9259848 -1.05253272
24 537.945215 -91.9452151 -1.86371713
25 543.964445 -76.9644453 -1.56005894
26 549.983676 33.0163245 0.66923645
27 556.002906 -7.00290579 -0.14194796
28 562.022136 0.97786397 0.01982117
29 568.041366 4.95863372 0.10051084
30 574.060597 35.9394035 0.72848687
31 580.079827 16.9201732 0.34296963
32 586.099057 36.900943 0.74797714
33 592.118287 -41.1182872 -0.83346214
34 598.137517 5.86248251 0.11883173
35 604.156748 29.8432523 0.6049187
36 610.175978 -6.81262671 -0.13809103
37 616.195208 -11.1431974 -0.22587111
Gráfico de los res
150
100
50
Residuos
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2
-50
-100
-150
Variable X
61.0457954 3.51994E-09

Superior 95,0%
9.17309E-09 -14673.7897 -8411.51012 -14673.7897 -8411.51012
3.51994E-09 4.45524661 7.58321388 4.45524661 7.58321388
uos estándares
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Variable X 1
METODO ARIMA
SORGO EN GRANO
ANUAL

Sorgo en grano
1 1983-1984 2,008 2,663 1,378 1.69 0.75401984
2 1984-1985 3,386 2,674 329 1.10 1.26638635
3 1985-1986 3,715 2,684 - 970 0.74 1.38429883 1.1089
4 1986-1987 2,745 2,693 281 1.10 1.01937806 1.1378
5 1987-1988 3,026 2,701 - 592 0.80 1.12024389 1.0003
6 1988-1989 2,434 2,709 - 861 0.65 0.89855074 0.9263
7 1989-1990 1,573 2,716 1,187 1.75 0.57923622 0.9457
8 1990-1991 2,760 2,722 284 1.10 1.01406702 0.9249
9 1991-1992 3,044 2,727 - 268 0.91 1.11624009 0.8943
10 1992-1993 2,776 2,732 - 737 0.73 1.01627653 0.9996
11 1993-1994 2,039 2,735 990 1.49 0.74543983 1.0042
12 1994-1995 3,029 2,738 - 187 0.94 1.10616657 0.9895
13 1995-1996 2,842 2,741 17 1.01 1.03703586 0.9806
14 1996-1997 2,859 2,742 - 194 0.93 1.04268845 0.9847
15 1997-1998 2,665 2,743 - 564 0.79 0.97169594 0.9219
16 1998-1999 2,101 2,743 70 1.03 0.76607973 0.8892
17 1999-2000 2,171 2,742 223 1.10 0.79185282 0.8813
18 2000-2001 2,394 2,740 352 1.15 0.87371064 0.8501
19 2001-2002 2,746 2,738 - 515 0.81 1.00305596 0.8581
20 2002-2003 2,231 2,734 - 30 0.99 0.81588321 0.9203
21 2003-2004 2,201 2,731 805 1.37 0.80607478 0.9812
22 2004-2005 3,006 2,726 199 1.07 1.10279486 1.0204
23 2005-2006 3,205 2,720 50 1.02 1.17817147 1.0934
24 2006-2007 3,255 2,714 - 59 0.98 1.1993092 1.1884
25 2007-2008 3,196 2,707 262 1.08 1.18062642 1.2452
26 2008-2009 3,458 2,699 273 1.08 1.28110021 1.2277
27 2009-2010 3,731 2,691 - 806 0.78 1.38663982 1.1684
28 2010-2011 2,925 2,681 - 513 0.82 1.09087182 1.1007
29 2011-2012 2,412 2,671 - 172 0.93 0.90295282 1.0241
30 2012-2013 2,240 2,660 139 1.06 0.84199131 0.9730
31 2013-2014 2,379 2,649 603 1.25 0.89817175 0.9730
32 2014-2015 2,982 2,636 - 121 0.96 1.13113178 0.9432
33 2015-2016 2,861 2,623 - 894 0.69 1.0906896 0.9782
34 2016-2017(p) 1,967 2,609 672 1.34 0.75388409 0.9848
35 2017-2018(p) 2,639 2,594 - 238 0.91 1.01718009 0.9355
36 2018-2019(p) 0.93108439 0.8967
2,401 2,579 - 134 0.94
37 2019-2020(p) 2,267 2,563 - 2,267 - 0.88477271 0.9443
38 2021 2,546 11.74 1.04 MEDIA
39 2022 2,528 650.33 0.30 DESV. EST.
40 2023 2,509 55.41 0.29 CV
41 2024 2,490
42 2025 2,470
43 2026 2,449
44 2027 2,427
45 2028 2,405
46 2029 2,382
47 2030 2,358
48 2031 2,333
49 2032 2,307
50 2033 2,281
51 2034 2,254
52 2035 2,226
53 2036 2,198
54 2037 2,168
55 2038 2,138
56 2039 2,107
57 2040 2,076
58 2041 2,043
Sorgo en grano (1)
4,000
3,500
Centro Indice Estacionali Normalizad Proyección
3,000
dad o
2,271.32 2,500 f(x) = − 0.385066252620652 x² + 11.8452179117856 x
R² = 0.00968332360041158
2,672.71
2,000
1.1233 123.23 108.5170 107.91 2,895.86
1.0691 95.35 100.4165 99.85 2,688.82 1,500
0.9633 116.29 100.5562 99.99 2,700.94
1,000
0.9360 96.00 85.7725 85.29 2,310.34
0.9353 61.93 100.5266 99.96 2,714.59 500
0.9096 111.49 495.7888 493.00 2,936.91
-
0.9469 117.88 2,722.97 0 5 10 15 20 25
1.0019 101.43 2,731.28
0.9969 74.78 2,332.94
0.9851 112.29 2,737.22 PROYECCION PARA 20 AÑO
0.9827 105.53 2,957.18
0.9533 109.38 2,737.88
4,000
0.9055 107.31 2,742.37
3,500
0.8852 86.54 2,339.11
0.8657 91.47 2,740.61 3,000
0.8541 102.29 2,956.68 2,500
0.8892 112.80 2,733.57 2,000
0.9507 85.81 2,734.20
1,500
1.0008 80.54 2,328.86
1.0569 104.34 2,724.74 1,000
1.1409 103.27 2,935.40 500

1.2168 98.56 2,710.04 -
0 10 20 30 40
1.2364 95.49 2,706.78
1.1981 106.93 2,302.18
1.1346 122.22 2,689.63
1.0624 102.68 2,893.34
0.9986 90.42 2,667.27
0.9730 86.54 2,660.11
0.9581 93.75 2,259.09
0.9607 117.74 2,635.27
0.9815 111.12 2,830.51
0.9602 78.52 2,605.28
0.9161 111.03 2,594.18
0.9205 101.15 2,199.57
0.9443 93.69 2,561.67
2,746.90
2,524.07
2,509.00
2,123.63
2,468.81
2,642.51
2,423.63
2,404.57
2,031.27
2,356.71
2,517.34
2,303.96
2,280.89
1,922.48
2,225.36
2,371.40
2,165.06
2,137.95
1,797.27
2,074.77
2,204.68
Sorgo en grano (1) METODO DE ANALISIS DE DATOS
DESCRIPCIÓ
T N a
Sorgo en grano
1984
1 2,008 -0.28376411
6252620652 x² + 11.8452179117856 x + 2651.61965961706 2 1985 3,386 -0.28376411
2360041158
3 1986 3,715 -0.28376411
4 1987 2,745 -0.28376411
5 1988 3,026 -0.28376411
6 1989 2,434 -0.28376411
7 1990 1,573 -0.28376411
8 1991 2,760 -0.28376411
9 1992 3,044 -0.28376411
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 10 1993 2,776 -0.28376411
11 1994 2,039 -0.28376411
12 1995 3,029 -0.28376411
OYECCION PARA 20 AÑOS 13 1996 2,842 -0.28376411
14 1997 2,859 -0.28376411
15 1998 2,665 -0.28376411
16 1999 2,101 -0.28376411
17 2000 2,171 -0.28376411
18 2001 2,394 -0.28376411
19 2002 2,746 -0.28376411
20 2003 2,231 -0.28376411
21 2004 2,201 -0.28376411
22 2005 3,006 -0.28376411
23 2006 3,205 -0.28376411
24 2007 3,255 -0.28376411
25 2008 3,196 -0.28376411
20 30 40 50 60 70
26 2009 3,458 -0.28376411
27 2010 3,731 -0.28376411
28 2011 2,925 -0.28376411
29 2012 2,412 -0.28376411
30 2013 2,240 -0.28376411
31 2014 2,379 -0.28376411
32 2015 2,982 -0.28376411
33 2016 2,861 -0.28376411
34 2017 1,967 -0.28376411
35 2018 2,639 -0.28376411
36 2019 2,401 -0.28376411
2020
37 2,267 -0.28376411
38 2021 -0.28376411
39 2022 -0.28376411
40 2023 -0.28376411
41 2024 -0.28376411
42 2025 -0.28376411
43 2026 -0.28376411
44 2027 -0.28376411
45 2028 -0.28376411
46 2029 -0.28376411
47 2030 -0.28376411
48 2031 -0.28376411
49 2032 -0.28376411
50 2033 -0.28376411
51 2034 -0.28376411
52 2035 -0.28376411
53 2036 -0.28376411
54 2037 -0.28376411
55 2038 -0.28376411
56 2039 -0.28376411
57 2040 -0.28376411
58 2041 -0.28376411
ODO DE ANALISIS DE DATOS
PROYECCION ANUAL SORGO EN GRANO 20
b c TENDENCIA COCIENTE AÑOS
7000
82.2017679 2722.17464 2804.09265 796.092646
82.2017679 2722.17464 2885.44312 500.556878 6000 f(x) = − 0.283764106353323 x² + 82.2017679127237 x + 2722.17464258
R² = 1
82.2017679 2722.17464 2966.22607 748.773931 5000
82.2017679 2722.17464 3046.44149 301.441489
4000
82.2017679 2722.17464 3126.08938 100.089379
82.2017679 2722.17464 3205.16974 771.169742 3000
82.2017679 2722.17464 3283.68258 1710.68258 2000
82.2017679 2722.17464 3361.62788 601.627883
1000
82.2017679 2722.17464 3439.00566 395.005661
82.2017679 2722.17464 3515.81591 739.815911 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
82.2017679 2722.17464 3592.05863 1553.05863
82.2017679 2722.17464 3667.73383 638.733826
82.2017679 2722.17464 3742.84149 900.841491
82.2017679 2722.17464 3817.38163 958.381629
82.2017679 2722.17464 3891.35424 1226.35424
82.2017679 2722.17464 3964.75932 1863.75932
82.2017679 2722.17464 4037.59687 1866.59687
82.2017679 2722.17464 4109.86689 1715.86689
82.2017679 2722.17464 4181.56939 1435.56939
82.2017679 2722.17464 4252.70436 2021.70436
82.2017679 2722.17464 4323.2718 2122.2718
82.2017679 2722.17464 4393.27171 1387.27171
82.2017679 2722.17464 4462.70409 1257.70409
82.2017679 2722.17464 4531.56895 1276.56895
82.2017679 2722.17464 4599.86627 1403.86627
82.2017679 2722.17464 4667.59607 1209.59607
82.2017679 2722.17464 4734.75834 1003.75834
82.2017679 2722.17464 4801.35308 1876.35308
82.2017679 2722.17464 4867.3803 2455.3803
82.2017679 2722.17464 4932.83998 2692.83998
82.2017679 2722.17464 4997.73214 2618.73214
82.2017679 2722.17464 5062.05677 2080.05677
82.2017679 2722.17464 5125.81387 2264.81387
82.2017679 2722.17464 5189.00344 3222.00344
82.2017679 2722.17464 5251.62549 2612.62549
82.2017679 2722.17464 5313.68001 2912.47818
82.2017679 2722.17464 5375.16699 3107.79261

82.2017679 2722.17464 5436.08645 56350.2359
82.2017679 2722.17464 5496.43839
82.2017679 2722.17464 5556.22279
82.2017679 2722.17464 5615.43966
82.2017679 2722.17464 5674.08901
82.2017679 2722.17464 5732.17083
82.2017679 2722.17464 5789.68512
82.2017679 2722.17464 5846.63188
82.2017679 2722.17464 5903.01112
82.2017679 2722.17464 5958.82282
82.2017679 2722.17464 6014.067
82.2017679 2722.17464 6068.74365
82.2017679 2722.17464 6122.85277
82.2017679 2722.17464 6176.39437
82.2017679 2722.17464 6229.36843
82.2017679 2722.17464 6281.77497
82.2017679 2722.17464 6333.61398
82.2017679 2722.17464 6384.88546
82.2017679 2722.17464 6435.58941
82.2017679 2722.17464 6485.72583
82.2017679 2722.17464 6535.29473
Resumen
AL SORGO EN GRANO 20
AÑOS
82.2017679127237 x + 2722.17464258848 Coeficiente d 0.05948291
R^2 ajustado-0.02493212
Observacione 37
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Regresión 1 32769.8088 32769.8088 0.12427731
30 40 50 60 70
Residuos 35 9228903.46 263682.956
Total 36 9261673.27

Intercepción 2746.73102 172.319548 15.939753 1.27854E-17
Variable X 1 -2.78729969 7.90656311 -0.35252987 0.72655504
Observación
1 2743.94372 -735.943724 -1.45351931
2 2741.15642 644.843575 1.27359274
3 2738.36912 976.630875 1.92888639
4 2735.58183 9.41817474 0.01860128
5 2732.79453 293.205474 0.57909294
6 2730.00723 -296.007226 -0.58462652
7 2727.21993 -1154.21993 -2.27963211
8 2724.43263 35.5673735 0.07024703
9 2721.64533 322.354673 0.63666382
10 2718.85803 57.1419729 0.11285776
11 2716.07073 -677.070727 -1.3372427
12 2713.28343 315.716572 0.62355329
13 2710.49613 131.503872 0.25972559
14 2707.70883 151.291172 0.29880632
15 2704.92153 -39.9215287 -0.07884667

16 2702.13423 -601.134229 -1.18726498
17 2699.34693 -528.346929 -1.04350705
18 2696.55963 -302.55963 -0.59756779
19 2693.77233 52.2276701 0.10315181
20 2690.98503 -459.98503 -0.90848947
21 2688.19773 -487.197731 -0.96223568
22 2685.41043 320.589569 0.63317766
23 2682.62313 522.376869 1.03171593
24 2679.83583 575.164168 1.13597303
25 2677.04853 518.951468 1.02495062
26 2674.26123 783.738768 1.5479165
27 2671.47393 1059.52607 2.09260782
28 2668.68663 256.313367 0.50622951
29 2665.89933 -253.899333 -0.50146169
30 2663.11203 -423.112033 -0.83566377
31 2660.32473 -281.324734 -0.55562799
32 2657.53743 324.462566 0.64082699
33 2654.75013 206.249866 0.40735202
34 2651.96283 -684.962835 -1.35282994
35 2649.17553 -10.1755349 -0.0200971
36 2646.38824 -245.186408 -0.4842533
37 2643.60094 -376.226555 -0.74306301
1500
1000
500
Residuos
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
-500
-1000
-1500
Variable X 1
Valor crítico de F
0.72655504

Superior 95,0% 4000
2396.90374 3096.5583 2396.90374 3096.5583 3000
-18.8384761 13.2638768 -18.8384761 13.2638768 2000
Y
1000
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Variable X 1
Percentil Y
1.35135135 1573
4.05405405 1967 Gráfico de probabilidad norma
6.75675676 2008
4000
9.45945946 2039
3000
12.1621622 2101
14.8648649 2171 2000
Y
17.5675676 2201 1000

20.2702703 2231 0
22.972973 2240 0 20 40 60 80
25.6756757 2267.37438 Muestra percentil
28.3783784 2379
31.0810811 2394
33.7837838 2401.20183
36.4864865 2412
39.1891892 2434
41.8918919 2639
44.5945946 2665
47.2972973 2745
50 2746
52.7027027 2760
55.4054054 2776
58.1081081 2842
60.8108108 2859
63.5135135 2861
66.2162162 2925
68.9189189 2982
71.6216216 3006
74.3243243 3026
77.027027 3029
79.7297297 3044
82.4324324 3196
85.1351351 3205
87.8378378 3255
90.5405405 3386
93.2432432 3458
95.9459459 3715
98.6486486 3731
áfico de los residuales
10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Variable X 1
10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Variable X 1
40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
METODO ARIMA
TRIGO
ANUAL

Trigo (1)
1 1983-1984 702 653 32 1.05 1.07542531
2 1984-1985 734 679 - 124 0.83 1.08097918
3 1985-1986 610 705 95 1.16 0.86527646 0.9878
4 1986-1987 705 731 15 1.02 0.96488899 0.9721
5 1987-1988 720 756 59 1.08 0.95232427 0.9354
6 1988-1989 779 781 - 56 0.93 0.99724765 1.0063
7 1989-1990 723 806 290 1.40 0.89705683 1.0253
8 1990-1991 1,013 831 - 107 0.89 1.2197442 1.0881
9 1991-1992 906 855 207 1.23 1.05996029 1.0647
10 1992-1993 1,113 879 - 319 0.71 1.26662949 1.1140
11 1993-1994 794 902 265 1.33 0.87989051 1.0185
12 1994-1995 1,059 926 - 355 0.66 1.14390769 1.0319
13 1995-1996 704 949 391 1.56 0.74192967 0.9696
14 1996-1997 1,095 972 - 145 0.87 1.12689797 0.9617
15 1997-1998 950 994 - 96 0.90 0.95551812 0.8980
16 1998-1999 854 1,016 3 1.00 0.84016252 0.9528
17 1999-2000 857 1,038 220 1.26 0.82528512 0.8957
18 2000-2001 1,077 1,060 - 167 0.84 1.01593998 0.8958
19 2001-2002 910 1,081 144 1.16 0.84143251 0.8944
20 2002-2003 1,054 1,103 - 118 0.89 0.95593104 0.9356
21 2003-2004 936 1,123 244 1.26 0.83318127 0.9369
22 2004-2005 1,180 1,144 10 1.01 1.03152804 0.9765
23 2005-2006 1,190 1,164 41 1.03 1.02218133 1.0044
24 2006-2007 1,231 1,184 88 1.07 1.03957829 1.0804
25 2007-2008 1,319 1,204 165 1.13 1.09569241 1.1303
26 2008-2009 1,484 1,223 107 1.07 1.21322117 1.1447
27 2009-2010 1,591 1,242 - 211 0.87 1.28070038 1.0887
28 2010-2011 1,380 1,261 - 408 0.70 1.09428103 1.0901
29 2011-2012 972 1,280 459 1.47 0.75959516 1.0093
30 2012-2013 1,431 1,298 - 366 0.74 1.10257576 1.0113
31 2013-2014 1,065 1,316 656 1.62 0.80937815 1.0046
32 2014-2015 1,721 1,333 - 288 0.83 1.29059448 0.9822
33 2015-2016 1,433 1,351 - 547 0.62 1.06079236 0.9801
34 2016-2017(p) 886 1,368 626 1.71 0.64767313 0.9894
35 2017-2018(p) 1,512 1,385 - 313 0.79 1.09186625 0.9460
36 2018-2019(p) 0.85587429 0.9173
1,199 1,401 323 1.27
37 2019-2020(p) 1,522 1,418 - 1,522 - 1.07365329 1.0071
38 2021 1,434 18.53 1.05 MEDIA
39 2022 1,449 197.66 0.23 DESV. EST.
40 2023 1,465 10.67 0.22 CV
41 2024 1,480
42 2025 1,494
43 2026 1,509
44 2027 1,523
45 2028 1,537
46 2029 1,551
47 2030 1,564
48 2031 1,577
49 2032 1,590
50 2033 1,603
51 2034 1,615
52 2035 1,627
53 2036 1,638
54 2037 1,650
55 2038 1,661
56 2039 1,672
57 2040 1,682
58 2041 1,693
Centro Indice Estacionali Normalizad Proyección Trigo (1)
dad o
2,000
591.90
721.02 1,800
0.9800 88.30 100.2834 99.23 699.56 1,600

0.9538 101.17 92.5420 91.57 669.07 1,400
f(x) = − 0.143007730373254 x² + 26.6775556931831 x + 6
0.9708 98.10 106.4528 105.34 796.38 1,200 R² = 0.614157145906671
1.0158 98.18 91.6376 90.68 708.31 1,000
1.0567 84.89 107.3130 106.19 855.83 800
1.0764 113.32 498.2289 493.00 824.12 600
1.0893 97.30 782.70 400
1.0662 118.79 925.59 200
1.0252 85.83 818.25
-
1.0007 114.31 983.05 0 5 10 15 20 25
0.9657 76.83 941.58
0.9298 121.20 889.79
0.9254 103.26 1,047.27
0.9242 90.91 921.69 PROYECCION PARA 20 AÑOS
0.8957 92.14 1,102.67
2,000
0.8951 113.51 1,051.95
1,800
0.9150 91.96 990.33
1,600
0.9362 102.10 1,161.42
1,400
0.9567 87.09 1,018.66
1,200
0.9905 104.15 1,214.71
1.0424 98.06 1,155.22 1,000
1.1054 94.05 1,084.32 800

1.1375 96.33 1,268.04 600
1.1167 108.64 1,109.14 400
1.0894 117.56 1,319.15 200
1.0497 104.25 1,251.40 -
0 10 20 30 40 50
1.0103 75.19 1,171.77
1.0079 109.39 1,367.12
0.9934 81.48 1,193.14
0.9811 131.54 1,415.99
0.9847 107.73 1,340.49
0.9677 66.93 1,252.66
0.9316 117.20 1,458.67
0.9622 88.95 1,270.65
1.0071 106.61 1,505.25
1,422.48
1,327.01
1,542.69
1,341.68
1,586.91
1,497.37
1,394.82
1,619.18
1,406.23
1,660.98
1,565.17
1,456.07
1,688.14
1,464.29
1,727.46
1,625.88
1,510.78
1,749.57
1,515.87
1,786.35
1,679.49
METODO DE ANALISIS DE DAT
DESCRIPCIÓ
T N Trigo (1) a
Trigo (1) 1984

1 702 -0.04415445
2 1985 734 -0.04415445
3 1986 610 -0.04415445
4 1987 705 -0.04415445
30373254 x² + 26.6775556931831 x + 626.225420144558
5 1988 720 -0.04415445
06671 6 1989 779 -0.04415445
7 1990 723 -0.04415445
8 1991 1,013 -0.04415445
9 1992 906 -0.04415445
10 1993 1,113 -0.04415445
11 1994 794 -0.04415445
12 1995 1,059 -0.04415445
15 20 25 30 35 40 13 1996 704 -0.04415445
14 1997 1,095 -0.04415445
15 1998 950 -0.04415445
16 1999 854 -0.04415445
YECCION PARA 20 AÑOS 17 2000 857 -0.04415445
18 2001 1,077 -0.04415445
19 2002 910 -0.04415445
20 2003 1,054 -0.04415445
21 2004 936 -0.04415445
22 2005 1,180 -0.04415445
23 2006 1,190 -0.04415445
24 2007 1,231 -0.04415445
25 2008 1,319 -0.04415445
26 2009 1,484 -0.04415445
27 2010 1,591 -0.04415445
28 2011 1,380 -0.04415445
29 2012 972 -0.04415445
20 30 40 50 60 70
30 2013 1,431 -0.04415445
31 2014 1,065 -0.04415445
32 2015 1,721 -0.04415445
33 2016 1,433 -0.04415445
34 2017 886 -0.04415445
35 2018 1,512 -0.04415445
36 2019 1,199 -0.04415445
2020
37 1,522 -0.04415445
38 2021 -0.04415445
39 2022 -0.04415445
40 2023 -0.04415445
41 2024 -0.04415445
42 2025 -0.04415445
43 2026 -0.04415445
44 2027 -0.04415445
45 2028 -0.04415445
46 2029 -0.04415445
47 2030 -0.04415445
48 2031 -0.04415445
49 2032 -0.04415445
50 2033 -0.04415445
51 2034 -0.04415445
52 2035 -0.04415445
53 2036 -0.04415445
54 2037 -0.04415445
55 2038 -0.04415445
56 2039 -0.04415445
57 2040 -0.04415445
58 2041 -0.04415445
O DE ANALISIS DE DATOS
b c TENDENCIA COCIENTE
PROYECCION ANUAL DEL

25.9299804 624.566373 650.452199 51.5478012 AÑOS
25.9299804 624.566373 676.249716 57.7502842
2500
25.9299804 624.566373 701.958924 91.9589239
25.9299804 624.566373 727.579823 22.5798231
2000
25.9299804 624.566373 753.112413 33.1124134 f(x) = − 0.0441544503438504 x² + 25.9299803
R² = 1
25.9299804 624.566373 778.556695 0.44330513 1500
25.9299804 624.566373 803.912667 80.9126674
25.9299804 624.566373 829.180331 183.819669 1000
25.9299804 624.566373 854.359686 51.6403143
25.9299804 624.566373 879.450732 233.549268 500
25.9299804 624.566373 904.453468 110.453468
25.9299804 624.566373 929.367896 129.632104 0
0 10 20 30 4
25.9299804 624.566373 954.194016 250.194016
25.9299804 624.566373 978.931826 116.068174
25.9299804 624.566373 1003.58133 53.5813271
25.9299804 624.566373 1028.14252 174.14252
25.9299804 624.566373 1052.6154 195.615403
25.9299804 624.566373 1076.99998 2.23469E-05
25.9299804 624.566373 1101.29624 191.296243
25.9299804 624.566373 1125.5042 71.5042002
25.9299804 624.566373 1149.62385 213.623848
25.9299804 624.566373 1173.65519 6.34481291
25.9299804 624.566373 1197.59822 7.5982172
25.9299804 624.566373 1221.45294 9.54706159
25.9299804 624.566373 1245.21935 73.7806493
25.9299804 624.566373 1268.89745 215.102546
25.9299804 624.566373 1292.48725 298.512751
25.9299804 624.566373 1315.98873 64.0112658
25.9299804 624.566373 1339.40191 367.401911
25.9299804 624.566373 1362.72678 68.2732213
25.9299804 624.566373 1385.96334 320.963338
25.9299804 624.566373 1409.11159 311.888412
25.9299804 624.566373 1432.17153 0.82847125
25.9299804 624.566373 1455.14316 569.143161
25.9299804 624.566373 1478.02648 33.9735158
25.9299804 624.566373 1500.8215 301.476303
25.9299804 624.566373 1523.5282 1.57206333

25.9299804 624.566373 1546.1466 4963.8435
25.9299804 624.566373 1568.67669
25.9299804 624.566373 1591.11847
25.9299804 624.566373 1613.47194
25.9299804 624.566373 1635.7371
25.9299804 624.566373 1657.91395
25.9299804 624.566373 1680.00249
25.9299804 624.566373 1702.00273
25.9299804 624.566373 1723.91465
25.9299804 624.566373 1745.73827
25.9299804 624.566373 1767.47358
25.9299804 624.566373 1789.12058
25.9299804 624.566373 1810.67927
25.9299804 624.566373 1832.14965
25.9299804 624.566373 1853.53172
25.9299804 624.566373 1874.82548
25.9299804 624.566373 1896.03094
25.9299804 624.566373 1917.14808
25.9299804 624.566373 1938.17692
25.9299804 624.566373 1959.11744
25.9299804 624.566373 1979.96966
ROYECCION ANUAL DEL TRIGO PARA 20
AÑOS Resumen
0.0441544503438504 x² + 25.9299803736902 x + 624.566372838041 Coeficiente d 0.61163477
R^2 ajustado 0.60053862
Observacione 37
Grados de libertad
Regresión 1
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Residuos 35
Total 36
Coeficientes
Intercepción 661.54833
Variable X 1 21.2432619
Observación
Pronóstico para Y
1 682.791591
2 704.034853
3 725.278115
4 746.521377
5 767.764639
6 789.007901
7 810.251163
8 831.494425
9 852.737687
10 873.980949
11 895.224211
12 916.467473
13 937.710735
14 958.953997
15 980.197259
16 1001.44052
17 1022.68378
18 1043.92704
19 1065.17031
20 1086.41357
21 1107.65683
22 1128.90009
23 1150.14335
24 1171.38662
25 1192.62988
26 1213.87314
27 1235.1164
28 1256.35966
29 1277.60293
30 1298.84619
31 1320.08945
32 1341.33271
33 1362.57597
34 1383.81924
35 1405.0625
36 1426.30576
37 1447.54902
600
400
200
Residuos
0
0
-200
-400
-600
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
1903482.92 1903482.92 55.1213525 1.09167E-08
1208640.56 34532.5873
3112123.47
Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
62.3602828 10.6084883 1.76723E-12 534.950225 788.146434 534.950225 788.146434
2.86128601 7.42437557 1.09167E-08 15.4345425 27.0519814 15.4345425 27.0519814 2000
1500
1000
Y
500
0
Resultados de datos de probabilidad 0 5
Residuos
Residuos estándares Percentil Y
19.2084085 0.10483204 1.35135135 610
29.9651466 0.16353815 4.05405405 702
-115.278115 -0.62914324 6.75675676 704
-41.5213773 -0.22660757 9.45945946 705
-47.7646392 -0.26068088 12.1621622 720
G
-10.0079012 -0.05461924 14.8648649 723
2000
-87.2511631 -0.47618301 17.5675676 734
181.505575 0.99058703 20.2702703 779 1500
53.262313 0.29068505 22.972973 794 1000
Y
239.019051 1.30447328 25.6756757 854 500

-101.224211 -0.55244248 28.3783784 857
0
142.532527 0.77788725 31.0810811 886 0
-233.710735 -1.27550255 33.7837838 906

136.046003 0.74248632 36.4864865 910
-30.1972586 -0.16480493 39.1891892 936
-147.440521 -0.80467318 41.8918919 950
-165.683783 -0.90423782 44.5945946 972
33.0729556 0.18049936 47.2972973 1013
-155.170306 -0.84685935 50 1054
-32.4135683 -0.17690068 52.7027027 1059
-171.65683 -0.9368364 55.4054054 1065
51.0999078 0.27888348 58.1081081 1077
39.8566459 0.21752211 60.8108108 1095
59.6133839 0.32534673 63.5135135 1113
126.370122 0.68967911 66.2162162 1180
270.12686 1.47424763 68.9189189 1190
355.883598 1.94227465 71.6216216 1199.3452
123.640336 0.674781 74.3243243 1231
-305.602926 -1.66786224 77.027027 1319
132.153812 0.72124425 79.7297297 1380
-255.08945 -1.39217928 82.4324324 1431
379.667288 2.07207681 85.1351351 1433
70.4240265 0.38434702 87.8378378 1484
-497.819235 -2.71690431 90.5405405 1512
106.937503 0.58362341 93.2432432 1521.95614
-226.960564 -1.23866273 95.9459459 1591
74.4071195 0.4060852 98.6486486 1721
600
400
200
Residuos
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
-200
-400
-600
Variable X 1

2000
1500
1000
Y
500
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Variable X 1

2000
1500
1000
Y
500
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil

CARPIO UGARTE CLAUDIA ALEJANDRA LAB 2 PEP_104049

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CARPIO UGARTE CLAUDIA ALEJANDRA LAB 2 PEP_104049

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METODO ARIMA

ARROZ CON CASCARA

N° AÑO Fecha Tendencia Diferencia Cociente Sin Tendencia MM5

1.0020 114.82 2,293.11

24.33 1,906 2,782 421.650768

ON ANUAL DEL ARROZ

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t

Análisis de los residuales

15 2256.70854 -96.7085436 -0.30695495

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

uos estándares Percentil Y Gráfico de probabili

Curva de regresión ajustada

Gráfico de probabilidad normal

N° AÑO Fecha Tendencia Diferencia Cociente Sin Tendencia MM5

Indice de Indice Est. 1,800

1.0651 99.24 96.8147 95.86 1,004.85 800

1.0756 103.45 99.6405 98.66 1,031.13 600

0.9319 102.75 1,037.61

4346934 x² − 9.69412216856497 x + 1075.31935210629 1984

a b TENDENCIA COCIENTE Estadísticas de la regresión

18.19 894.06 1,048 0.02668067 Coeficiente d 0.82720352

18.19 894.06 1,545 0.05651649 16 1197.9432 -121.943202

Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F Curva de

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

-0.90445747 43.0555556 1126

Curva de regresión ajustada

Gráfico de los residuales

N° AÑO Fecha Tendencia Diferencia Cociente Sin Tendencia MM5

0.9096 96.66 98.6737 96.84 490.17

00717009 x² + 11.7259641072393 x + 416.83691000648

6.58881606 452.746289 492.279186 48.2791857 400

6.58881606 452.746289 696.532484 60.8914383

IONES ANUAL DE LA CAÑAGUA

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

Análisis de los residuales Resultados de datos de proba

ObservaciónPronóstico 457 Residuos

15 551.312305 22.6876947 0.85531619 40.2777778

Curva de regresión ajustada

Gráfico de probabilidad normal

N° AÑO Fecha Tendencia Diferencia Cociente Sin Tendencia

1.0536 1.0563 99.39 710.30 1,000

1.0459 1.0366 101.88 725.36 400

17.2890266 855.823266 855.823266 38.5263687

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad

Análisis de los residuales

14 766.757346 -71.7573459 -0.99226133

Curva de regresión ajustada

N° AÑO Fecha Tendencia Diferencia Cociente Sin Tendencia MM5

1.0414 103.14 613.54

0.6905 84.03 900.19

0.6363 103.30 1,013.03

0.15233588 447.213772 50.7862276 800 f(x) = 447.213772370904 x^0.152335875278621

0.15233588 775.190696 13.0600971

5278621 Estadísticas de la regresión

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad

Análisis de los residuales

15 630.825862 -131.825862 -1.22334859

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

Percentil Y Gráfico de probabilidad norma

N° AÑO Fecha Tendencia Diferencia Cociente Sin Tendencia MM5

0.9478 100.17 100.1557 98.20 1,572.20

0.9383 92.32 2,139.88 3,000

90.2555975 1404.30827 2625.21777 515.530136

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t