MATHEMATICS INTERNAL ASSESSMENT

PLOTTING THE LOG GRAPHS OF THE PLANETARY SYSTEMS AND PATTERNS

AVISHI KUMARI
I. Introduction

Ever since my uncle and aunt gifted me an encyclopedia for my birthday when I was around 7 or 8,
I would spend most of my time reading and researching the planets. I always found it so fascinating that
there are billions, if not quadrillions of planets and galaxies that existed in space, each having its own
properties such as climate, temperature, atmospheres, etc. Having an interest in and learning about the
celestial bodies that exist in our universe stayed with me as I grew up and I continued to research them. I
have recently taken an interest in Steven Hawking’s work about space and found his work very enticing. I
read paper after paper and article after article until one day I stumbled upon an article about the linear
patterns of the planets in relation to their orbital centers if the variables of the AU and the log values were
presented on a graph. This struck me as odd because how could the planets and their distances from each
other have a pattern when from what I knew, Mercury and Venus were 31.25 million miles away from each
other while Jupiter and Saturn were 402 million miles away from each other? As I read more about this
phenomenon, I learned that it was called the Titus-Bode Theory, discovered by scientists Johann Daniel
Titus and Johann Elert Bode, around the late 1760s to the early 1770s. The reason I found this theory so
interesting is because although it was discovered in the 1770s, no one has been able to explain its existence
and its accuracy to this day. There is a lot of information concerning the Solar System and our Sun with
variations but this theory states that it applies to all planetary systems and is absolute. The purpose of my
Internal Assessment will be to find whether there is the same pattern of positive linear relationships
between the AU (distance between the planetary entities) and the log of the value seen in the planets and
their moons.

The Titius - Bode Theory

The Titus-Bode Theory (also referred to as the Titus-Bode Law) is an empirical statement that
explains a positive linear correlation between the plants and their distances from each other by using the
log of each distance in astronomical units.

What’s interesting about this statement is that it is considered both a theory and a law despite those
definitions contradicting each other. The reason behind this is that after it was discovered, it has never been
proven wrong even though there is no real backing for it in any other field of science. Unless the
relationship can be proven in physics, it's hard to assign a meaning to it because the current science and
technology we have today are incapable of proving the “law”. For years scientists simply assumed that the
Titus-Bode Theory was the way that the solar system created and arranged the planets and regulated the
distances between them but to this day, there is still no way to verify this. The rule itself is very convincing
as it predicted the positions of Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn. Even other celestial bodies
such as Pluto and Ceres fit the rule to some extent which is why they were classified as ‘planets’ but
scientists later revoked that status because they were an exception to the rule due to the shape of their orbit.

The Titus Bode Theory has many limitations to it and has been put under doubt despite it not being
able to be disproven. Since it only works for planets with fixed distances (planets where the distance from
the sun has little change throughout its orbit), it does not have a definite relationship. The planetary science
community has ruled it a coincidence. An example of the Titius-Bode theory being used would be the
discovery of the entity, Ceres. With the theory, the entity was considered a planet but it is actually a large
entity in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. For many years, scientists have tried to correct the
theory to make it fit all of the main planets, but information regarding this field and how to do it is
currently inadequate or unavailable.

II. Background Information

In the late 1760s to early 1770s, German astronomers Johann Daniel Titius and Johann Elert Bode
both suspected a possibility of a pattern in the distances between the planets of our Solar System. Albeit the
lack of physical evidence they had to support their hypothesis when conducting their research, their
hypothesis ended up being true and mathematically correct.

The information provided below is the orbital distances of the planets that were known in the
1760s-1770s in AU (astronomical units) from the Sun.

Mercury: 0.39 AU
Venus: 0.72 AU
Earth: 1.00 AU
Mars: 1.52 AU
Jupiter: 5.20 AU
Saturn: 9.54 AU

The astronomical unit (AU) is the distance from the center of the Earth to the center of the Sun, which
is about 149.6 million kilometers, but for the purpose of this Internal Assessment, the value will be rounded
up to 150 million kilometers.

When one looks at the values presented, there is no seemingly apparent connection between them at
all, and certainly not appropriate values to create a definite linear relationship. However, one should look at
the values listed through the point of view of geometric sequence to see a relation. This can be obtained by
dividing the term above divided by the term below, this helps us achieve our r value.

For example:
By following this formula, we get the r values of:

1.8, 1.4, 1.5, 3.4, 1.8

After processing the values in this formula, one can start to see similarities between the numbers,
however, an outlier being 3.4. Seeing this gap, it was long assumed that there could be an unknown planet -
Planet X, between Jupiter and Mars, that planet was later on suggested and proven to be Ceres
 The eerily accurate fit that the planets have to the rule is a mystery case that has gone cold. Aside from
the geometrical patterns of the values, there is also another formula that follows the theoretical suggestions
but there are no specific justifications for this formula

One should apply the rules of the geometric sequence and AU values of Mars and Jupiter being 1.5
AU and 5.2 AU to get

When the equation is solved, one gets the x value of 2.8 AU, therefore that would be the distance of
the missing planet away from the Sun. By applying this number back into the geometric sequence formula,
we would be given a new set of r values being 1.8, 1.4, 1.5, 1.8, 1.9, and 1.8, and now there are no clear
visible outliers. In 1801, Ceres was discovered exactly 2.8 AU away from the Sun, which was the exact
value that was predicted using the Titius-Bode Theorem. Ceres is currently classified as a dwarf planet
between Mars and Jupiter.

III. Log graphs

The data shown below are the distances between the planetary entities and the sun in AU and their
log(d) values

Mercury: d = 0.39 AU; log(d) = -0.41 Saturn: d = 9.54 AU. log(d) = 0.98
Venus: d = 0.72 AU; log(d) = -0.14 Uranus: d = 19.2 AU. log(d) = 1.28
Earth: d = 1.00 AU; log(d) = 0
Mars: d = 1.52 AU; log(d) = 0.18
Ceres (dwarf): d = 2.8 AU; log(d) = 0.45
Jupiter: d = 5.20 AU; log(d) = 0.72
Assuming that in the equation that a and b are constants, we can create the equation with the
law of logs as:

log d = log a + n log b

Plotting these values is the best way to visualize the relationship that is about to be proven. log d is put on
the y-axis white n (distance in AU) is on the x-axis and by plotting this we will start to see a linear graph.

DESMOS regression tool was used to create this model

A line can be plotted across the graph to highlight the linear relationship

The graph shows a positive and very strong linear correlation with a y-intercept of -0.68 and a gradient
of 0.24. Given that log a is the y-intercept, this gives:

log(a) = -0.68

therefore, a = 0.21

Given that log b is the gradient this gives:

log(b) = 0.24

therefore, b = 1.74

So the final formula for the relationship for the spacing of the n-ordered planets is
IV. Raw Data

The data presented below will be used to plot the log graphs to test the positive linear
relationship between distances in AU between the planetary entities (moons) and the center of their
orbits, as stated by the Titius-Bode Theorem. Not all AU values are available online so they were
calculated assuming that 1 AU = 150 million km

Example (calculating the distance in AU between the Moon and Earth)

Mean distance

= 2.56 x AU
 IV. Processed Data

It is well known that Pluto is an exception to the rule, therefore the data collected for it will not
be plotted and tested. Pluto has a very elliptical orbit, so the data presented and used would most likely
be inaccurate.

When n = 10, the formula would predict the value of 53.4 AU, but the average AU for Pluto is
39.5, so the formula here does not work. This is most likely due to Pluto’s distance varying as it orbits
around the Sun from 29.7 AU to 49.3 AU. Perhaps this formula only works for planets that have a
circular shaped orbit around the sun with little to no change in their AU as it fulfills its orbit.

Graphs for all samples except Pluto

Desmos regression tool was used to plot all graphs representing the data values from the tables of the
raw data (part IV) section of the Internal Assessment, with the mean distance in AU from each planet to its
moon (d) lying on the y axis and the log(d) values being plotted on the x-axis.

1. Mars

Moons of Mars Mean distance in AU from Mars Log(d) - X

Phobos -3.81

Deimos -4.20

Mars shows a positive linear relationship, but because it only has 2 moons, it is hard to judge whether this
evidence is efficient due to the small amount of data for this planet.
2. Jupiter

Moons of Mean distance log(d) - X

Jupiter in
by the distance AU from
from Jupiter Jupiter

Himalia 0.077 -1.11

Elara 0.078 -1.11

Callisto 0.013 -1.89

Ganymede -2.15

Europa -2.35

Io -2.55

Amalthea -2.92

Jupiter has many moons, so only seven were plotted. There is an obvious large gap between the values,
as the distances vary, however one can see a positive and almost linear correlation, with a slightly curved
upward line shown on the graphs on the right, which can be evidence for the Titius-Bode rule, as the line
fits the rule’s pattern.

3. Saturn

Moons of Mean log(d) - X

Uranus by distance in
distance from AU from
Uranus Uranus

Mimas -2.91

Enceladus -2.80

Tethys -2.71

Dione -2.60

Titan -2.09

Rhea -2.45

Hyperion -2.01
 In contrast to the data obtained for Jupiter, the graph resulting from the data for Saturn shows
an upward straight line, proving the visibly strong positive linear relationship, as suggested by the
Titius-Bode rule. Saturn also has more than seven moons that could be used to plot the graph and
this data is better to be used as evidence to support the rule by showing that it works not only for the
relationship between the planets around the Sun and the Sun itself but also for other planetary
entities in regards to their moons. The explanation for this could be the fact that the moons of Saturn
are more evenly spaced out than that of Jupiter, resulting in an overall clearer linear relationship.

4. Uranus

Moons of Saturn by Mean distance log(d) - X

distance from in AU from
Saturn Saturn

Ariel -2.87

Umbriel -2.75

Titania -2.54

Oberon -2.41

Miranda -3.06

Cordelia -3.48

Ophelia -3.45

Uranus follows the pattern of Saturn, as the data for Uranus can overall be called a linear graph
showing a positive relationship between the two factors (mean distances in AU and its log values).
However, there is an anomaly that breaks the pattern – Miranda, which does not fit into the linear relation
formed by the other data values. One can suggest that Miranda has an ellipse-shaped orbit like Pluto and
therefore its position cannot be explained by the Titius-Bode rule.
5. Neptune

Moons of Mean distance in log(d) - X

Neptune AU from Neptune
by distance
from Neptune

Triton -2.63

Nereid -1.43

Naiad -3.49

Thalassa -3.48

Despina -3.45

Galatea -3.38

Larissa -3.31

Neptune clearly does not fit into the pattern of Titius and Bode due to the shape of the curve on
the graph. Perhaps, this can be explained by the same reason as in the case of Jupiter – there are many
other moons that are not taken into account, which could fill the gaps on the graph, but it is more
likely that the difference in the distances between certain moons such as Naiad and Nereid are too
large, creating large gaps. Also, unlike in other examples with other planets, Neptune has a number of
moons that are so close together, that the points on the graph clump and it is challenging to present all
values to be visible.

V. Evaluation

Because of working with smaller values, showing the positive linear relation of the processed
data on a graph was challenging. Also, as the Titus-Boden rule does not have a justification, one can
only attempt to prove/support it by testing it on a variety of existing samples and see if the results
follow the same pattern.

Each planet has a different number of moons, and taking them all into account would make the
results more reliable, however, the number of moons in total would be too large for this investigation.
Taking into account the fact that most of the moons are unnamed and that they would create a range of
even smaller values for plotting the graph.
Additionally, each planet has a different number of moons, therefore despite the positive linear
relationship all planetary entities share, the data might not be reliable enough to confidently state that
the relationship between planets and their moons are following the Titus-Boden rule without
exceptions.

Furthermore, new planetary entities are to be discovered, therefore one cannot suggest all
unknown to these days moons/planets will fit into this pattern.

VI. Conclusion

In conclusion, the resulting graphs have supported the rule of Titus-Bode regarding the positive
linear relationship between not only the planets of the Solar system and the Sun but also the respective
planets and their moons.

For further research one could attempt to test the rule on the planets and their moons outside of
the Solar System or use the Titus-Boden rule formula to suggest whether there are any unknown
planets between the ones we know of by looking into the geometric sequence of the astronomical units
(AU) of the data available.
VII. References

● https://astroquizzical.com/astroquizzical/i-was-plotting-the-distances-of-the-pla
nets-from.
● https://www.centauri-dreams.org/2015/03/18/can-we-find-exoplanets-using-the-
titius-bode-relation/
● https://www.desmos.com/calculator
● https://www.britannica.com/science/Bodes-law
● https://ibmathsresources.com/2017/08/14/log-graphs-to-plot-planetary-patterns/
● https://web.pa.msu.edu/people/horvatin/Astronomy_Facts/planet_pages/Martian_m
oons.htm#Phobos
● https://web.pa.msu.edu/people/horvatin/Astronomy_Facts/planet_pages/Earths_mo
on.htm
● https://web.pa.msu.edu/people/horvatin/Astronomy_Facts/planet_pages/Jupiters_m
oons.htm
● https://web.pa.msu.edu/people/horvatin/Astronomy_Facts/planet_pages/Saturns_m
oons.htm
● https://web.pa.msu.edu/people/horvatin/Astronomy_Facts/planet_pages/Uranus_m
oons.htm
● https://web.pa.msu.edu/people/horvatin/Astronomy_Facts/planet_pages/Neptunes_
moons.htm
● https://web.pa.msu.edu/people/horvatin/Astronomy_Facts/planet_pages/Plutos_mo
on.htm
● https://www.astronomynotes.com/tables/tablesb.htm
● https://earthsky.org/space/what-is-the-astronomical-unit/