POLLING MEMORANDUM

To: Crain’s Chicago Business

From: M3 Strategies
Re: Chicago Political Leadership Poll
Date: May 6, 2024

BACKGROUND
M3 Strategies surveyed 415 likely General Election voters in Chicago from April 29 to 30. The survey
has a margin of error of 4.82 % at 95% confidence. Respondents were randomly selected from a pool of
individuals who are likely to vote. All responses were generated via SMS to web survey.

KEY FINDINGS
Approval Ratings
• President Joe Biden receives a net +20 approval rating. 55% approve of his job performance,
25% strongly approve, and 30% somewhat approve. The approval splits significantly across age
groups and racial demographics, with the highest approval from older voters and Black
respondents.
o Consistent with national polling, President Biden struggles with young voters (18-30)
with a net approval rating of -27% and Hispanic/Latino voters -13%.
o Additionally, only 67% of voters who supported President Biden in 2020 approve of his
performance.
• Mayor Brandon Johnson’s approval rating is underwater, at a net -29%. Only a combined 28%
approve of his job performance, while a majority (57%) disapprove and 41% strongly
disapprove.
o Mayor Johnson’s net approval rating is 59% points worse than President Biden’s
and 20% points worse than the City Councils.
• Chicago City Council: Faces mixed perceptions, with 32% approving and 41% disapproving.
Approval rates differ by age, with younger respondents more likely to express dissatisfaction.
City's Reputation and Business Environment
• Reputation: The perception of Chicago's reputation is mainly negative among the respondents,
with 66% rating its reputation around the rest of the country as somewhat to mostly negative
compared to only 19% who say it is mostly to somewhat positive.
• Business Friendliness: 62% of respondents view Chicago as a business-friendly city, with 23%
considering it very business-friendly. However, perceptions of business friendliness vary based
on racial and geographic factors.
RESULTS
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Presidential Election in November?

Vote Percent
Likely to vote 11%
Will definitely vote 89%

Do you approve of President Biden’s job performance?

Biden Percent
Strongly approve 25%
55%
Somewhat approve 30%
No opinion 11% 20% Net
Somewhat disapprove 12%
35%
Strongly disapprove 22%
Never heard of President Biden 0%

Do you approve of Mayor Brandon Johnson’s job performance?

Johnson Percent
Strongly approve 9%
28%
Somewhat approve 19%
No opinion 14% -29% Net
Somewhat disapprove 17%
57%
Strongly disapprove 41%
Never heard of Brandon Johnson 1%
Do you approve of the Chicago City Council’s (the 50 Aldermen) job performance?

City Council Percent

Strongly approve 6%
32%
Somewhat approve 27%
No opinion 27% -9% Net
Somewhat disapprove 28%
41%
Strongly disapprove 13%

In your own words, please tell us your opinion of Brandon Johnson’s job performance as mayor
so far:

What do you believe the city of Chicago’s reputation is around the rest of the country?

Reputation Percent
Mostly positive 6%
19%
Somewhat positive 14%
Neutral 11% -47% Net
Somewhat negative 30%
66%
Mostly negative 36%
Not sure 4%
Do you believe Chicago is a business friendly city?

Business Friendly Percent Net

Very business friendly 23%
62%
Somewhat business friendly 39%
35%
Somewhat anti business 12%
28%
Very anti business 15%
Not sure 10%

What is the one best thing about Chicago?

What is the one worst thing about Chicago?

SELECTED CROSSTABS
Do you approve of President Biden’s job performance?

Gender

Biden Female Male

Strongly approve 24% 27%
Somewhat approve 29% 29%
No opinion 12% 9%
Somewhat disapprove 15% 10%
Strongly disapprove 20% 24%
Never heard of President Biden 0% 1%
 Age

Biden 18-30 31-45 46-64 65+

Strongly approve 3% 12% 24% 45%
Somewhat approve 26% 39% 26% 27%
No opinion 15% 10% 11% 9%
Somewhat disapprove 32% 12% 11% 6%
Strongly disapprove 24% 26% 27% 13%
Never heard of President Biden 0% 0% 1% 0%

Race

Black or African Hispanic

White
Biden American or Latino
Strongly approve 35% 16% 25%
Somewhat approve 30% 17% 34%
No opinion 17% 17% 2%
Somewhat disapprove 9% 15% 14%
Strongly disapprove 9% 32% 25%
Never heard of President Biden 0% 2% 0%

Part of Chicago

Biden Downtown Southeast Northwest South North West

Strongly approve 13% 39% 19% 28% 24% 26%
Somewhat approve 38% 20% 30% 25% 33% 32%
No opinion 14% 22% 4% 11% 6% 18%
Somewhat disapprove 15% 8% 17% 10% 13% 9%
Strongly disapprove 20% 10% 29% 26% 22% 15%
Never heard of President Biden 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
 2020 Presidential Vote

Biden Donald Trump Joe Biden

Strongly approve 0% 32%
Somewhat approve 7% 35%
No opinion 2% 10%
Somewhat disapprove 6% 13%
Strongly disapprove 85% 10%
Never heard of President Biden 0% 0%

Do you approve of Mayor Brandon Johnson’s job performance?

Gender

Johnson Female Male

Strongly approve 8% 9%
Somewhat approve 21% 16%
No opinion 18% 10%
Somewhat disapprove 16% 17%
Strongly disapprove 36% 45%
Never heard of Brandon Johnson 0% 2%

Age

Johnson 18-30 31-45 46-64 65+

Strongly approve 2% 3% 9% 16%
Somewhat approve 32% 21% 14% 18%
No opinion 6% 18% 13% 14%
Somewhat disapprove 27% 16% 13% 18%
Strongly disapprove 33% 41% 49% 32%
Never heard of Brandon Johnson 0% 1% 1% 2%
 Race

Black or African Hispanic

White
Johnson American or Latino
Strongly approve 16% 7% 6%
Somewhat approve 24% 13% 17%
No opinion 23% 15% 9%
Somewhat disapprove 14% 15% 18%
Strongly disapprove 22% 45% 50%
Never heard of Brandon Johnson 0% 5% 1%

Part of Chicago

Johnson Downtown Southeast Northwest South North West

Strongly approve 3% 13% 7% 10% 8% 13%
Somewhat approve 11% 28% 19% 14% 22% 21%
No opinion 8% 16% 13% 15% 10% 25%
Somewhat disapprove 23% 20% 21% 13% 18% 11%
Strongly disapprove 55% 23% 41% 48% 38% 30%
Never heard of Brandon Johnson 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0%

2020 Presidential Vote

Johnson Donald Trump Joe Biden

Strongly approve 0% 11%
Somewhat approve 2% 22%
No opinion 0% 16%
Somewhat disapprove 8% 20%
Strongly disapprove 91% 30%
Never heard of Brandon Johnson 0% 1%
Do you approve of the Chicago City Council’s (the 50 Aldermen) job performance?

Gender

City Council Female Male

Strongly approve 7% 4%
Somewhat approve 28% 25%
No opinion 31% 23%
Somewhat disapprove 24% 32%
Strongly disapprove 10% 16%

Age

City Council 18-30 31-45 46-64 65+

Strongly approve 8% 2% 4% 10%
Somewhat approve 31% 24% 24% 30%
No opinion 23% 30% 28% 24%
Somewhat disapprove 32% 36% 25% 24%
Strongly disapprove 6% 9% 19% 12%

Race

Black or African Hispanic

White
City Council American or Latino
Strongly approve 11% 2% 5%
Somewhat approve 29% 33% 26%
No opinion 31% 29% 24%
Somewhat disapprove 17% 21% 34%
Strongly disapprove 12% 14% 11%
 Part of Chicago

City Council Downtown Southeast Northwest South North West

Strongly approve 0% 14% 8% 5% 4% 9%
Somewhat approve 11% 28% 26% 30% 28% 25%
No opinion 35% 37% 18% 18% 29% 41%
Somewhat disapprove 39% 14% 37% 29% 28% 18%
Strongly disapprove 15% 7% 12% 18% 11% 7%

2020 Presidential Vote

City Council Donald Trump Joe Biden

Strongly approve 2% 7%
Somewhat approve 11% 31%
No opinion 23% 27%
Somewhat disapprove 26% 27%
Strongly disapprove 38% 8%

What do you believe the city of Chicago’s reputation is around the rest of the country?

Gender

Reputation Female Male

Mostly positive 6% 4%
Somewhat positive 10% 17%
Neutral 11% 10%
Somewhat negative 31% 29%
Mostly negative 38% 34%
Not sure 3% 4%
 Age

Reputation 18-30 31-45 46-64 65+

Mostly positive 2% 4% 3% 11%
Somewhat positive 23% 18% 12% 10%
Neutral 9% 9% 9% 14%
Somewhat negative 30% 37% 25% 29%
Mostly negative 34% 32% 46% 29%
Not sure 2% 0% 5% 6%

Race

Black or African Hispanic

White
Reputation American or Latino
Mostly positive 8% 5% 5%
Somewhat positive 17% 7% 14%
Neutral 13% 11% 8%
Somewhat negative 27% 23% 36%
Mostly negative 28% 50% 35%
Not sure 6% 5% 3%

Part of Chicago

Reputation Downtown Southeast Northwest South North West

Mostly positive 3% 8% 6% 3% 9% 5%
Somewhat positive 6% 19% 10% 14% 13% 23%
Neutral 4% 6% 14% 11% 13% 7%
Somewhat negative 44% 36% 28% 26% 30% 30%
Mostly negative 44% 29% 39% 44% 31% 27%
Not sure 0% 2% 3% 2% 5% 9%
 2020 Presidential Vote

Reputation Donald Trump Joe Biden

Mostly positive 2% 7%
Somewhat positive 3% 17%
Neutral 3% 13%
Somewhat negative 7% 34%
Mostly negative 84% 27%
Not sure 1% 2%

Do you believe Chicago is a business friendly city?

Gender

Business Friendly Female Male

Very business friendly 26% 21%
Somewhat business friendly 40% 37%
Somewhat anti business 11% 14%
Very anti business 11% 20%
Not sure 12% 8%

Age

Business Friendly 18-30 31-45 46-64 65+

Very business friendly 25% 20% 21% 28%
Somewhat business friendly 54% 43% 33% 38%
Somewhat anti business 9% 11% 15% 11%
Very anti business 3% 14% 21% 14%
Not sure 8% 12% 10% 10%
 Race

Black or African Hispanic

White
Business Friendly American or Latino
Very business friendly 32% 27% 18%
Somewhat business friendly 39% 35% 41%
Somewhat anti business 7% 10% 16%
Very anti business 9% 17% 18%
Not sure 12% 10% 7%

Part of Chicago

Business Friendly Downtown Southeast Northwest South North West

Very business friendly 10% 39% 28% 19% 21% 35%
Somewhat business friendly 45% 26% 32% 42% 40% 41%
Somewhat anti business 11% 9% 12% 13% 16% 5%
Very anti business 25% 3% 21% 19% 13% 7%
Not sure 9% 23% 8% 8% 10% 12%

2020 Presidential Vote

Business Friendly Donald Trump Joe Biden

Very business friendly 8% 27%
Somewhat business friendly 14% 45%
Somewhat anti business 21% 10%
Very anti business 45% 10%
Not sure 12% 8%
DEMOGRAPHICS
Gender

Gender Percent
Female 50%
Male 48%
Other 2%

Age

Age Percent
18-30 10%
31-45 25%
46-64 36%
65+ 29%

Race

Race Percent
American Indian or Alaska Native 1%
Another race or mixed 4%
Asian or Asian American 1%
Black or African American 29%
Hispanic or Latino 19%
Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander 0%
Other (please specify) 6%
White 40%

Chicago Region

Region Percent
Downtown 8%
Southeast 7%
Northwest 14%
South 29%
North 30%
West 12%
2020 Presidential Election

2020 Percent
Donald Trump 13%
I did not vote in 2020 3%
Joe Biden 78%
Other / Unsure 6%