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HARALD CRAMf i R
M AT H E M A T IC A L M E T H O D S
OF S T A T IS T IC S
PRINCETON LANDMARKS
IN M A T H E M A T I C S A N D P H Y S I C S
Non-standard Analysis,
by Abraham Robinson
General Theory of Relativity,
by P.A.M. Dirac
Angular Momentum in Quantum Mechanics,
by A. R. Edmonds
Mathematical Foundations of Quantum Mechanics,
by John von Neumann
Introduction to Mathematical Logic,
by Alonzo Church
Convex Analysis,
by R. Tyrrell Rockafellar
Riemannian Geometry,
by Luther Pfahler Eisenhart
The Classical Groups,
by Hermann Weyl
Topology from the Differentiable Viewpoint,
by John W. Milnor
Algebraic Theory of Numbers,
by Hermann Weyl
Continuous Geometry,
by John von Neumann
Linear Programming and Extensions,
by George B. Dantzig
Operator Techniques in Atomic Spectroscopy,
by Brian R. Judd
MATHEMATICAL METHODS
OF STATISTICS
By
HARALD CRAMfiR
T R O FE SSO R IN T H E U N IV E R S IT Y
OF STOCKHOLM
PRINCETON
PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS
First printed in the United States in 1946
by Princeton University Press
Thirteenth Printing, 1974
Eighteenth Printing, 1991
Nineteenth printing, and first paperback printing, 1999
http://pup.princeton.edu
1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2
To MARTA
PR EFA C E.
During the last 25 years, statistical science has made great pro
gress, thanks to the brilliant schools of British and American statis
ticians, among whom the name of Professor R. A. Fisher should be
mentioned in the foremost place. During the same time, largely owing
to the work of French and Russian mathematicians, the classical
calculus of probability has developed into a purely mathematical theory
satisfying modern standards with respect to rigour.
The purpose of the present work is to join these two lines of de
velopment in an exposition of the mathematical theory of modern
statistical methods, in so far as these are based on the concept of
probability. A full understanding of the theory of these methods
requires a fairly advanced knowledge of pure mathematics. In this
respect, I have tried to make the book self-contained from the point
of view of a reader possessing a good working knowledge of the
elements of the differential and integral calculus, algebra, and analytic
geometry.
In the first part of the book, which serves as a mathematical in
troduction, the requisite mathematics not assumed to be previously
known to the reader are developed. Particular stress has been laid
on the fundamental concepts of a distribution, and of the integration
with respect to a distribution. As a preliminary to the introduction
of these concepts, the theory of Lebesgue measure and integration
has been briefly developed in Chapters 4—5, and the fundamental
concepts are then introduced by straightforward generalization in
Chapters 6—7.
The second part of the book contains the general theory of random
variables and probability distributions, while the third part is devoted
to the theory of sampling distributions, statistical estimation, and
tests of significance. The selection of the questions treated in the
last part is necessarily somewhat arbitrary, but I have tried to con
centrate in the first hand on points of general importance. When
these are fully mastered, the reader will be able to work out appli
cations to particular problems for himself. In order to keep the volume
VII
of the book within reasonable limits, it has been necessary to exclude
certain topics of great interest, which I had originally intended
to treat, such as the theory of random processes, statistical time
series and periodograms.
The theory of the statistical tests is illustrated by numerical
examples borrowed from various fields of application. Owing to con
siderations of space, it has been necessary to reduce the number of
these examples rather severely. I t has also been necessary to restrain
from every discussion of questions concerning the practical arrange
ment of numerical calculations.
I t is not necessary to go through the first part completely before
studying the rest of the book. A reader who is anxious to find him
self in medias res may content himself with making some slight
acquaintance with the fundamental concepts referred to above. For
this purpose, it will be advisable to read Chapters 1—3, and the
paragraphs 4.1—4.2, 5.1—5.3, 6.1—6.2, 6.4—6.6, 7.1—7.2, 7.4—7.5 and
8.1—8.4. The reader may then proceed to Chapter 13, and look up
the references to the first part as they occur.
The book is founded on my University lectures since about 1930,
and has been written mainly during the years 1942—1944. Owing to
war conditions, foreign scientific literature was during these years
only very incompletely and with considerable delay available in Swe
den, and this must serve as an excuse for the possible absence of
quotations which would otherwise have been appropriate.
The printing of the Scandinavian edition of the book has been
made possible by grants from the Royal Swedish Academy of Science,
and from Stiftelsen Lars Riertas Minne. I express my gratitude to
wards these institutions.
My thanks are also due to the Editors of the Princeton Mathema
tical Series for their kind offer to include the book in the Series, and
for their permission to print a separate Scandinavian edition.
I am further indebted to Professor R. A. Fisher and to Messrs
Oliver and Boyd for permission to reprint tables of the t- and X2-
distributions from »Statistical methods for research workers».
A number of friends have rendered valuable help during the
preparation of the book. Professors Harald Bohr and Ernst Jacobsthal,
taking refuge in Sweden from the hardships of the times, have read
parts of the work in manuscript and in proof, and have given stimulating
criticism and advice. Professor Herman Wold has made a very careful
scrutiny of the whole work in proof, and I have greatly profited
VIII
from his valuable remarks. Gosta Almqvist, Jan Jung, Sven G. Lind-
blom and Bertil Matern have assisted in the numerical calculations,
the revision of the manuscript, and the reading of the proofs. To all
these I wish to express my sincere thanks.
Department of Mathematical Statistics
University of Stockholm
May 1945
H. C.
IX
T a ble of Co n t e n t s.
First Part.
M ATH EM A TICA L IN T R O D U C T IO N .
C h a p t e r s 1— 3 . S ets of P o in t s .
Page
Ch a p t e r s 4 — 7 . T h e o r y o f M e a s u r e a n d I n t e g r a t io n
in B j.
XI
Page
Chapter 7. The Lebesgue-Stieltjes integral for functions of one
v a riab le.................................................................................... 62
1. The integral of a hounded function over a set of finite P-measure. — 2.
Unbounded functions and sets of infinite P m easu re. — 3. Lebesgue-Stieltjes
integrals w ith a parameter. — 4. Lebesgue-Stieltjes integrals w ith respect
to a distribution. — 6. The R iem ann-Stieltjes integral.
Ch a p t e r s 8 — 9 . T h e o r y of M e a s u r e a n d I n t e g r a t io n
in R n.
X II
S e c o n d Part.
R A N D O M V A R IA B L E S A N D P R O B A B IL IT Y D I S T R I B U
T IO N S.
C h a p t e r s 1 3 — 1 4. F o u n d a t io n s .
Page
Chapter 13. Statistics and probability..............................................137
1. Random experim ents. — 2. Exam ples. — 3. S tatistical regularity. — 4.
Object of a m athem atical theory. — 6. M athem atical probability.
C h a p te r s 15— 20. V a r ia b le s a n d D is t r ib u t io n s in R r
XIII
Page
Chapter 20. Some convergence theorem s............................................250
1. Convergence of d istributions and variables. — 2. Convergence of certain
d istributions to th e norm al. — 3. Convergence in probability. — 4. Tche
bycheff’s theorem . — 6. K hintchine’s theorem. — 6. A convergence theorem.
Exercises to chapters 15— 20 ................................................................. 255
C h a p t e r s 21— 24. V a r i a b l e s a n d D i s t r i b u t i o n s i n R n.
Third Part.
S T A T IS T IC A L IN F E R E N C E .
XI V
Page
distributions. — 5. S tatistical image of a distribution. — 6. Biased sam pling.
Random sam pling num bers. — 7. Sam pling w ithout replacement. The
representative method.
Chapter 26. Statistical inference........................................................... 332
1. Introductory rem arks. — 2. Agreement between theory and facts. Tests
of significance. — 3. Description. — 4. Analysis. — 5. Prediction.
Ch a pt e r s 2 7 — 2 9 . S a m p l in g D i s t r i b u t i o n s .
Ch a p t e r s 3 0 — 3 1 . T e s t s o f S ig n if ic a n c e , I .
Ch a p t e r s 3 2 — 3 4 . T h e o r y o f E s t im a t io n .
XV
Efficient estim ates. — 4. Sufficient estim ates. — 5. A sym ptotically efficient
estim ates. — 6. The case of two unknown param eters. — 7. Several unknown
param eters. — 8. Generalization.
C h a p t e r s 35— 37. T e s t s o f S i g n i f i c a n c e , I I .
T a b l e s 1— 2. T h e N orm al D is t r ib u t io n ...................557
T a b l e 3. T h e ^ - D i s t r i b u t i o n ........................................................ 559
T a b l e 4. T h e i - D i s t r i b u t i o n .......................................................... 560
L i s t o f R e f e r e n c e s ............................................................................... 561
I n d e x ...............................................................................................................571
Ch a pt e r s 1 -3 . S e t s o f P o in t s .
CHAPTER 1.
G e n e r a l P r o p e r t ie s of S e t s .
CHAPTER 3.
P o in t S e t s i n n D i m e n s i o n s .
I * — y I = I * — *1 + \ y — *1-
The short march which follows calls for no comment. The final
allegro is introduced by recitative passages for the first violin, gaining
in passion, culminating in a dramatic run over the diminished
seventh chord which bears some resemblance to the opening of the
allegro of the first movement. There is a passing sigh before the last
movement begins, Allegro appassionato.
The theme itself is in the form of a dialogue between first and second
violins. It merges into the first variation without perceptible break in
the music. Here the theme is carried by the second violin, the first
filling the pauses with a descending figure. This clause of the theme
is then repeated by the viola, the 'cello taking the rôle of the first
violin. The second clause of the theme is similarly treated.
The remaining six variations are clearly set apart from each other by
changes in the time signature. There is a variation marked piu
mosso, really alla breve, which is a dialogue between first violin and
'cello, accompanied at first monotonously by the other two
instruments, later with more variety and animation. The next is an
andante moderato e lusinghiero, in which the theme is arranged as a
canon at the second, first between the two lower instruments, later
between the two higher. This leads to an adagio in 6/8 time, in which
the theme is broken up into passage work. The next and fifth
variation (allegretto, 2/4) is the most hidden of all. The notes of the
theme are separated and scattered here and there among the four
parts. But the sixth, an adagio in 9/4 time, is simpler. The seventh,
and last, is a sort of epilogue, a series of different statements of the
theme, at first hidden in triplet runs; then emerging after a long trill, in
its simplest form, in the key of C major; then in A major with an
elaborated accompaniment; in F major, simple again; and finally
brilliantly in A major.
The following Presto in E major, alla breve, is very long, but is none
the less symmetrical and regular in structure. It is in effect a scherzo
and trio. The scherzo is in the conventional two sections, both of
which are built upon the same subject. The second section is broken
by four measures (molto poco adagio!); and there is a false start of
the theme, following these, in G-sharp minor, suddenly broken by a
hold. This recalls the effect of the very opening of the movement, a
single measure, forte, by the 'cello, as if the instrument were starting
off boldly with the principal subject. But a full measure of silence
follows, giving the impression that the 'cello had been too precipitate.
The Trio section offers at first no change of key; but a new theme is
brought forward. Later the key changes to A major, and the rhythm is
broadened. A series of isolated pizzicato notes in the various
instruments prepares the return of the Scherzo (without repeats).
The Trio follows again; and there is a coda, growing more rapid, after
the Scherzo has been repeated for the second time.
After the C-sharp minor quartet, the last quartet—in F major, opus
135—appears outwardly simple. It shares with the first of the series
simplicity and regularity of form; and is, like the quartet in E-flat
major, calm and outspoken, rather than disturbed, gloomy, or
mysterious. It is the shortest of all the last quartets.
The first movement is in perfect sonata form. The first theme (viola)
has a gently questioning sound, which one may imagine mocked by
the first violin. The second theme, in C major, is light, almost in the
manner of Haydn. The movement builds itself logically out of the
opposition of these two motives, the one a little touched with
sadness and doubt, the other confidently gay. The Scherzo which
follows needs no analysis. Two themes, not very different in
character, are at the basis. The second is presented successively in
F, G, and A, climbing thus ever higher. The climax at which it arrives
is noteworthy. The first violin is almost acrobatic in the expression of
wild humor, over an accompaniment which for fifty measures
consists of the unvaried repetition of a single figure by the other
three instruments in unison. Following this fantastical scherzo there
is a short slow movement in D-flat major full of profound but not
tragic sentiment. The short theme, flowing and restrained, undergoes
four variations; the second in C-sharp minor, rather agitated in
character; the third in the tonic key, giving the melody to the 'cello;
and the fourth disguising the theme in short phrases (first violin). To
the last movement Beethoven gave the title, Der schwer gefasste
Entschluss. Two motives which occur in it are considered, the one as
a question: Muss es sein? the other as the answer: Es muss sein.
The former is heard only in the introduction, and in the measures
before the third section of the movement. The latter is the chief
theme. Whether or not these phrases are related to external
circumstances in Beethoven’s life, the proper interpretation of them
is essentially psychological. The question represents doubt and
distrust of self. The answer to such misgivings is one of deeds, not
words, of strong-willed determination and vigorous action. Of such
the final movement of the last quartet is expressive. Such seems the
decision which Beethoven put into terms of music.
FOOTNOTES:
[70] The famous Schuppanzigh quartet met every Friday morning at the house of
Prince Lichnowsky. Ignaz Schuppanzigh (b. 1776) was leader. Lichnowsky himself
frequently played the second violin. Franz Weiss (b. 1788), the youngest member,
hardly more than a boy, played the viola. Later he became the most famous of the
viola players in Vienna. The 'cellist was Nikolaus Kraft (born 1778).
[71] Förster (1748-1823) forms an important link between Haydn and Beethoven.
[74] Only Schuppanzigh himself, and Weiss, the violist, remained of the original
four who first played Beethoven’s quartets opus 18 at the palace of Prince
Lichnowsky. The second violinist was now Karl Holz, and the 'cellist Joseph Linke.
CHAPTER XVII
THE STRING ENSEMBLE SINCE
BEETHOVEN
The general trend of development: Spohr, Cherubini, Schubert—
Mendelssohn, Schumann and Brahms, etc.—New developments:
César Franck, d’Indy, Chausson—The characteristics of the
Russian schools: Tschaikowsky, Borodine, Glazounoff and others
—Other national types: Grieg, Smetana, Dvořák—The three great
quartets since Schubert and what they represent; modern
quartets and the new quartet style: Debussy, Ravel, Schönberg—
Conclusion.
I
There is little history of the string quartet to record after the death of
Beethoven in 1827. It has undergone little or no change or
development in technique until nearly the present day. The last
quartets of Beethoven taxed the powers of the combined four
instruments to the uttermost. Such changes of form as are to be
noted in recent quartets are the adaptation of new ideas already and
first put to test in music for pianoforte, orchestra, or stage. The
growth of so-called modern systems of harmony affect the string
quartet, but did not originate in it. A tendency towards richer or fuller
scoring, towards continued use of pizzicato or other special effects,
and a few touches of new virtuosity here and there, reflect the
general interest of the century in the orchestra and its possibilities of
tone-coloring. But it is in the main true that after a study of the last
quartets of Beethoven few subsequent quartets present new
difficulties; and that, excepting only a few, the many with which we
shall have to do are the expressions of the genius of various
musicians, most of whom were more successful in other forms, or
whose qualities have been made elsewhere and otherwise more
familiar.
Less perhaps than any other form will the string quartet endure by
the sole virtue of being well written for the instruments. Take, for
example, the thirty-four quartets of Ludwig Spohr. Spohr was during
the first half of the nineteenth century the most respected musician in
Germany. He was renowned as a leader, and composer quite as
much as he was world-famous as a virtuoso. He was especially
skillful as a leader in quartet playing. He was among the first to bring
out the Beethoven quartets, opus 18, in Germany. He was under a
special engagement for three years to the rich amateur Tost in
Vienna to furnish chamber compositions. No composer ever
understood better the peculiar qualities of the string instruments;
none was ever more ambitious and at the same time more serious.
Yet excluding the violin concertos and an occasional performance of
his opera Jessonda, his music is already lost in the past. Together
with operas, masses, and symphonies, the quartets, quintets, and
quartet concertos, are rapidly being forgotten. The reason is that
Spohr was more conscientious than inspired. He stood in fear of the
commonplace. His melodies and harmonies are deliberately
chromatic, not spontaneous. Yet shy as he was of
commonplaceness in melody and harmony, he was insensitive to a
more serious commonplaceness.
But the point is that Spohr’s quartets have not lived. In neatness of
form and in treatment of the instruments they do not fall below the
greatest. They are in these respects superior to those of Schumann
for example. The weakness of them is the weakness of the man’s
whole gift for composition; and they represent no change in the art of
writing string quartets.
Ludwig Spohr.
Another man whose quartets are theoretically as good as any is
Cherubini. Of the six, that in E-flat major, written in 1814, is still
occasionally heard.
On the other hand, Schubert, a man with less skill than either Spohr
or Cherubini, has written quartets which seem likely to prove
immortal. Fifteen are published in the complete Breitkopf and Härtel
edition of Schubert’s works. Of these the first eleven may be
considered preparatory to the last four. They show, however, what is
frequently ignored in considering the life and art of Schubert—an
unremitting effort on the part of the young composer to master the
principles of musical form.
II
We may say that Schubert applied himself to the composition of
string quartets with a special devotion and ultimately with great
success; that certain qualities of his genius were suited to an
expression in this form. Mendelssohn applied himself to all branches
of music with equal facility and with evidently little preference. Most
of his chamber music for strings alone, however, belongs to the early
half of his successful career. This in the case of Mendelssohn does
not mean, as in the case of almost every other composer, that the
quartets may not be the expression of his fully-matured genius.
Mendelssohn never wrote anything better than the overture to
‘Midsummer Night’s Dream.’ This before he was twenty! But having
put his soul for once into a few quartets he passed on to other works.
There are six in all. The first, opus 12, is in E-flat major. The slow
introduction and the first allegro have all the well-known and now
often ridiculed marks of the ‘Songs Without Words’: short, regular
phrases; weak curves and feminine endings; commonplace
harmonies, monotonous repetitions, uninteresting accompaniment.
The second movement—a canzonetta—is interesting as
Mendelssohn could sometimes be in light pieces; but the andante
oozes honey again, and the final allegro is very long.
The first movement of the next quartet (in F major) likewise suggests
the quintet. The style is smoothly imitative and compact; and the
theme beginning in the fifty-seventh measure casts a shadow before.
The Andante quasi Variazioni is most carefully wrought, and is rich in
sentiment. The Scherzo which follows—in C minor—is syncopated
throughout. The final allegro suggests the last movement of the B-
flat major symphony, the joyous Spring symphony written not long
before.
The last quartet (in A) may rank with the finest of his compositions.
Whether or not in theory the style is pianistic, the effect is rich and
sonorous. The syncopations are sometimes baffling, especially in the
last movement; but on the whole this quartet presents the essence of
Schumann’s genius in most ingratiating and appealing form. The
structure is free, reminding one in some ways of the D minor
symphony. But there is no rambling. The whole work is intense.
There is an economy of mood and of thematic material. One phrase
dominates the first movement; the Assai agitato is a series of terse
variations. There is a sustained Adagio in D major; and then a
vigorous finale in free rondo form, the chief theme of which is
undoubtedly related to the chief theme of the first movement.
The first sextet, in B-flat major, has won more popular favor than
many other works by the same composer. The addition of two
instruments to the regular four brought with it the same sort of
problems which were mentioned in connection with Mozart’s
quintets: i.e., the avoidance of thickness in the scoring. The group of
six instruments is virtually a string orchestra; but the sextets of
Brahms are finely drawn, quite in the manner of a string quartet.
Especially in this first sextet have the various instruments a like
importance and independence.
The first theme of the first movement (cello) is wholly melodious. The
second theme, regularly brought forward in F major, is yet another
melody, and again is announced by the violoncello. A passage of
twenty-eight measures, over a pedal point on C, follows. This closes
the first section. The development is, as might be expected, full of
intricacies. The return of the first theme is brilliantly prepared,
beginning with announcing phrases in the low registers, swelling to a
powerful and complete statement in which the two violins join. The
second movement is a theme and variations in D minor. The theme
is shared alternately by first viola and first violin. The variations are
brilliant and daring, suggesting not a little the pianoforte variations on
a theme of Paganini’s. There is a Scherzo and Trio. The main motive
of the Scherzo serves as an accompaniment figure in the Trio; and
the Trio is noteworthy for being entirely fortissimo. The last
movement is a Rondo.
In these sextets and in the three quartets, written many years later,
we have the classical model faithfully reproduced. The separate
parts are handled with unfailing polyphonic skill; there is the special
refinement of expression which, hard to define, is unmistakable in a
work that is properly a string quartet.
Opus 51, No. 1, is in C minor. The first theme is given out at once by
the first violin; a theme characteristic of Brahms, of long phrases and
a certain swinging power. Within the broadly curving line there are
impatient breaks; and the effect of the whole is one of restlessness
and agitation. This is especially noticeable when, after a contrasting
section, the theme is repeated by viola and cello under an agitated
accompaniment, and leads to sharp accents. There is no little
resemblance between this theme and Brahms’ treatment of it, and
the theme of the first movement of the C minor symphony,
completed not long before. There is throughout this movement the
rhythm, like the sweep of angry waves, which tosses in the first
movement of the symphony; an agitation which the second theme
(B-flat major, first violin) cannot calm, which only momentarily—as
just after the second theme, here, and in the third section of the
movement—is subdued.