‘Animations Sige Show Review View III) Deterrence: Theory and Sractice with special reference to Nuclear India and Pakistan A) Meaning: Theory and Practice B) The dynamic nature of deterrence in South Asia C) Conclusion A) Meaning: Theory and Practice: * The term deterrence means “to frighten from” and generally it means to frighten one’s adversary through the threat of use of force. In IR the theory of deterrence as a sub theory is rooted in the tradition of realism which believes that aggression can only be deterred through force. Deterrence is normally used in nuclear strategy and it means to dissuade your enemy from following a course of action through a clear communication of credibility and a threat and intent of using force in the case of insecurity of some vital interests.* For Deterrence to function 3 things are important: i. Capability of inflicting massive damage ii. Resolve and will to use the capability iii, Clear communication of the threat (The adversary should know the threat so that it would rationally calculate the costs of the anticipated act) * The idea of nuclear deterrence has origin in Cold War, and it was instrumental in the prevention of direct confrontation between the two superpowers US and USSR as both the states were assured of a Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) in the case ofa nuclear confrontation. + It can be said that Deterrence is an updated version of the traditional Balance of Power concept. In the case of deterrence it is balance of terror which helps in managing insecurity and prevents the outbreak of war between two nuclear armed state.* However, if one state is nuclear and the other one is not muclear then such situation might embolden the NWs having state to be more ageressive. B) The Dynamic Nature of Deterrence in South Asia * Understanding the South Asian context and the nature of India-Pakistan and| the imbalance between both of them at conventional level is important 10 explain the nuclearization of South Asia. Pakistan started its Nuclear Program in response to Indian nuclear tests of 1974. Pakistan’s security Policy and threat perceptions has always been India-centric. * Both became nuclear in 1998. Pakistan responding to India’s muclearization. As a result, a strategic balance established based on the idea of nuclear deterrence. Regarding the strategic balance there are 2 perspectives: ‘Nuclear optimists: consider Nuclear Weapons as a source of peace and prevention of war. ‘Nuclear Pessimists: consider the strategic balance not a full proof one and might lead the human raceto catastrophe* The basis of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence has been the idea of minimum credible deterrence which meant that Pakistan would keep the minimum capability required to keep the deterrence * However, the strategic stability is a dynamic concept and the capabilities that keeps the deterrence effective might not be enough for effective deterrence tomorrow. The evolving dynamics of South Asia and the military strategies of both the states have shown this. * The idea of massive retaliation introduced by India in 2003 and the Cold Start Doctrine of 2004 aiming at the coordination of all branches of Indian forces to achieve limited objectives inside Pakistan quickly. This debate started in the aftermath of the Mumbai attacks.The basis of Pakistan's nuclear deterrence has been the idea of minimum | | credible deterrence which meant that Pakistan would keep the minimum | capability required to keep the deterrence |+ However, the strategic stability is a dynamic concept and the capebilities that | Keeps the deterrence effective might not be enough for effective deterrence | fomorrow. The evolving dynamics of South Asia and the military strategies of | Doth the states have shown this, | |» The idea of massive retaliation introduced by India jg 2003 and the Cokd Start Doctrine of 2004 aiming at the coordination of all of Indian forces to; ‘achieve limited objectives inside Pakistan quickly. This debate started in the} aftermath of the Mumbai attacks. \ 2C) Conclusion The presence of NWs has helped until now in the prevention of war between the 2 states. Keeping in mind the recent developments, it can be concluded that the arms race in the nuclear and military field between both the states will continue to keep the deterrence credible. For understanding strategic stability in South Asia: read the articles published in Pakistan Politico magazine (June 2018). The ttle of the issue is “20 years of Pakistan's nuclear resolve”. The concept of Deterrence can be covered from Karen Mingst’s book “Essential of International Relations”NATIONAL OFFICERS ACADEMY IR With Muhammad Faheem Subject: International Relations for CSS Course Instructor: Muhammad Faheem, Lecturer, Department of Regional Studies, University of Peshawar. Qualification: MSc and MPhil in International Relations from Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. ¢ SUSI (National Security Policymaking) Fellow 2014 at the Institute of Training and Development, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA. * PhD in Progress = 7 Experience: Nine years teaching experience at the University of Peshawar © Has taught IR to CSS aspirantsNOAAR Lecture 5 - Microsoft PowerPoint (Product Activation Failed) - Module 5: International PoliticalEconomy I. IPE? II. 3 Major theories in IPE: Mercantilism, Liberalism, Marxism III. Theories of Imperialism. IV. Dependence and Interdependence y V. AssignmentI. What is IPE? + International Political Economy is a subfield of IR which studies the interrelationship of international politics and. international economics at the international level. International Politics: struggle for power and influence among states. Foreign Policy, alliances, visits of leaders, military power etc. are the manifestations of international politics. States an important actor. Politics also has a domestic and local dimension. Normally, scholars of IR interested in international politics and national interest. International Economics: Trade between states, loans, international market: involving buyers and sellers in different countries. Normally economists focus on international market missing the political link.add notes, sud Show NOM R Lede - Micrel PoverPit Produet Activation Fed) I. What is IPE? Intemational Political Economy is a subfield of IR which studies the interrelationship of international politics and international economics at the international level. International Politics: struggle for power and influence among states. Foreign Policy, alliances, visits of leaders, military power etc. are the manifestations of international politics. States an important actor. Politics also has a domestic and local dimension. Normally, scholars of IR interested in international politics and national interest. Intemational Economics: Trade between states, loans, international market: involving buyers and sellers in different countries. Normally economists focus on international market missing the political link.NOAAR Lecture - Microsoft PowerPoint Product Activation Failed) During Cold War, two IR scholars: Charles P. Kindleberger and Kenneth Waltz attempted to combine both the domains of international politics and economics. * Charles P. Kindleberger work on hegemony and hegemonic stability theory: for a stable/prosperous system, the presence of a powerful state important for the provision of international services. Britain in 19% century, US during Cold War: Marshall Plan. Kenneth Waltz emphasized the importance of economic power along In 1970s, it became evident that there is an intricate relationship between IP and IE.ii. The rise of OPEC and the Arab oil embargoe of 1973-74 against the states who supported Israel in the Arab-Israel War. Oil an economic commodity used as a political weapon. Emphasized: Importance of economic tools in FP. Important to consider the economic reaction of a_political/FP decision. Along with east-west terminologies, North-South relations are also important to be understood.Product Activation Failed) SlideShow Review — View Format _ '¢ Works with such titles International Poli Politics of International Economic Relations started getting published. Having its early scholars in the field of R. + Now a multi disciplinary field and studies a variety of topics: I. Trade, North South Relations, hegemony, dependence and interdependence, Globalization and many other. Also sometimes referred as Global Political Economy] Important reading for Intro: What is International Political Economy? An excerpt from an article by Michael VesethII. 3 Major Theories of IPE: Mercantilism, Liberalism and Marxism All these theories attempt to understand the mutual interaction of International Politics and economics. Each theory having its own stance with regard to the role of state in the regulation of market. 1. Mercantilism/Economic Realism * Dominated state practice in 17 and 18 century which was the time of the emergence of the state-system. Jean Baptiste Colbert (1617-83) advisor to the French King Louis IVX. For them economic wealth important for building political power and military prowess for which efficient taxation at home and maximization of exports at the international level needed: So it is very important to have a central govt for regulation.NOAHR Lecture 5 - Microsoft PowerPoint (Product Activation Feited) + Political Power/Power of a state important. Wealth is just a means to this end. They see international trade as a zero sum game: the gain of one is the loss of another and therefore advocate increased exports and reduced imports. A state should regulate its import and exports to promote its national interest and security. Sharing resources and trade with others a political question might have implications for state security. In 19* century, Economic Nationalism became popular. Alexander Hamilton (1755-1804) First US Secretary of| Treasury. His famous Report on Manufa S presented in Congress in 1791: Manufacturing sector important for self reliance which means the enhancement of security and advocated the protection of GS manufacturing sector from outside competition ssperially vis-a-vis British goods. Strengthening of national economy.t PowesPeint Product Activation Failed) ‘+ Fredrich List (German Civil Servant) concept of infant industry and advocates that local industries need! protection in early times to adjust. Criticized liberals for! ignoring interstate rivalries and conflict. i So whatare the key assumptions ofMercantilism? | Centrality of state | Link between Political Power andeconomic wealth . Economic relations of states competitive and having! political implications '2. Economic Liberalism:- Key Assumptions: Human beings are rational in making economic choices. Individual freedom to make profit. Individuals prosperity results in social prosperity. ii. State to have minimum role in economic matters: pricing, production etc. It should just provide legal i. framework and security. i. States should freely trade with one another. iv. They have less concern with state and political power. Level of analysis is individuals.2. Economic Liberalism:- Key Assumptions: i. Human beings are rational in making economic choices. Individual freedom to make profit. Individuals prosperity results in social prosperity. ii, State to have minimum role in economic matters: pricing, production etc. It should just provide legal framework and security. iii, States should freely trade with one another. iv. They have less concern with state and political power. Level of analysis is individuals.* Main advocates? + Adam Smith (1723-1790): Scottish Economist Famous book: The Wealth of Nations published in 1776: How states can maximize wealth through liberal economy and free market. Believed in the rationality of individual. Adam Smith Institute in UK: important Think tank. David Ricardo’s Concept of comparative advantage. States should trade with others in the things that they better produce and in which they have comparative advantage. Differences in climates and resource endowment of states. Trade important for peaceful international relations. &¢ John Maynard Keynes (1883- 1946): Head of British) delegation to Bretton woods Conference and one of the! architects of Post WWII imstitutional structure: WB,! IMF, GATT. Institutions needed to regulate intemational economic matters. | ¢ Liberalism the most dominant perspective of IPE. Criticism:- Ignores the political context Ignores the question of equality and justice i. Ignores the question of North South dependence. iv. Ignores state as an important actor. ZZ. YB Ee i | ; é 7 ' 1 ' ' 1 1 ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' 1 ' 1 ' I ' ' ' I a I 1 1 I 1 I 1 I ' ' 1 I ' 1 1 ' ' ' 1 I ' ' INOAAIR Lecture - Microsoft PowerPoint (Product Activation Failed) 3. Marxism:- Sometimes broadly referred as Radicalism (based in the ideas of Karl Marx and added by other people such as Lenin, Dependency Theorists). Karl Marx (1818-83) basically German: studied PhD there. Exiled for his radical views as a newspaper editor. Spent the rest of his life in London. Experienced the negative side of capitalism in Britain: hub of industrial revolution. Worked with his colleague Fredric Engel to come up with a counter perspective. Book: The Communist Manifesto 1848... How to bring change? Key Assumptions: i. Economic Factors are very important. As Economic base of society defines the superstructure (Politics, Law, Culture): Historical Materialism.3. Marxism:- Sometimes broadly referred as Radicalism (based in the ideas of Karl Marx and added by other people such as Lenin, Dependency Theorists). Karl Marx (1818-83) basically German; studied PhD there. Exiled for his radical views as a newspaper editor. Spent the rest of his life in London. Experienced the negative side of capitalism in Britain: hub of industrial revolution. Worked with his colleague Fredric Engel to come up with a counter perspective. Book: The Communist Manifesto 1848. ..How to bring change? Key Assumptions: i. Economic Factors are very important. As Economic base of society defines the superstructure (Politics, Law, Culture): Historical Materialism.3. Marxism:- Sometimes broadly referred as Radicalism (based in the ideas of Karl Marx and added by other people such as Lenin, Dependency Theorists). * Karl Marx (1818-83) basically German; studied PhD there. Exiled for his radical views as a newspaper editor. Spent the rest of his life in London. Experienced the negative side of capitalism in Britain: hub of industrial revolution. Worked with his colleygue Fredric Engel to come up with a counter perspective. Book: The Communist Manifesto 1848. ..How to bring change? Key Assumptions: i. Economic Factors are very important. As Economic base of society defines the superstructure (Politics, Law, Culture): Historical Materialism.ii. The growth of human society can be best understood in terms of class struggle and in capitalist societies of Europe the struggle is between the bourgeoisie and the proletariat. iii. Views state as an agent of promoting the interest of the capitalist class and inherently linked with the economic base of tlle society. Also sees religion as something creating false consciousness among workers and prevent them from revolting against the system. iv. Considers that capitalism has seeds of its own destruction: overproduction, under consumption, increased dissatisfaction of workers and eventual overthrow of capitalism in industrial states of Europe.NOAJR Lecture 5 - Microsoft PowerPoint (Product Activation Failed) - go x ii, The growth of human society can be best understood in terms of class struggle and in capitalist societies of Europe the struggle is between the bourgeoisie and the proletariat. iii, Views state as an agent of promoting the interest of the Capitalist class and inherently linked with the economic base of the society. Also sees religion as something creating false consciousness among workers and prevent them from revolting against the system. iv. Considers that capitalism has seeds of its own destruction: overproduction. under consumption. increased dissatisfaction of workers and eventual overthrow of capitalism in industrial states of Europe.* Marxism had a tremendous influence in the 20% century. Others strands developed: Leninism, Maoism, dependency theories. III. Theories of Imperialism A. Lenin’s Theory of Imperialism B. Johan Galtung’s Structural Theory of ImperialismA. Vladimir Ilyich Lenin (1870-1924) + After Marx’s death, Marxists concemed with the question that the predicted revolution by Marx didn’t occur in the advanced counties (in that time Europe). Rather capitalism grew and expanded to other territories. How it remained resilient? Lenin in his work Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism (1916) attempted to answer the above question. He believed that imperialism was the highest stage of capitalism and for the time being it prevented the capitalist system’s decay at national level as markets and sources of raw material found abroad through imperialism and colonization. J Corel eter cy+ Eventually imperialism will cause conflict over competition for territories. Exp: Scramble for Affica 1880s and German dissatisfaction over its share. He considers Imperialism as a main cause of WW1. + Some Marxist believe that even today imperialism continues through MNCs and International institutions. lA 33006-Muhammad Imran Saeed-051 to Everyone vy Marxism became stronger bez of Imperialism 2 collectivities where through a bridgehead in center of periphery, the center of center dominates the periphery.NOAAR Lecture 5 - Microsoft PowerPoint (Preduct Activation Failed) - go x even View °@ + Imperialism splits collectivities. Relates some parts in HI and some in DHI. Gap in living conditions. Important concepts: = Cc.Pc Cp. Pp. * Swategies to break the structure: P—P relations, regional cooperation, self reliance strategies. Otherwise imperialism will persist in one form or another.NOL Lectre = Miao Pomeont Padi thet ale) - competition for temvitories. Exp: Scramble for Aftica 1880s and German dissatisfaction over its share. He considers Imperialism as a main cause of WW Some Marxist believe that even today imperialism continues through MNCs and International institutions. B. Johan Galtung’s Structural Theory of Imperialism * Starting point: tremendous inequality between nations/states and this inequality resists to change Reason? Is imperialism conducted through a structure? + Defines Imperialism as a dominance relationship between 2 collectivities where through a bridgehead in center of periphery, the center of center dominates the periphery. Click to add notes| IV. Dependence and Interdependence Regarding Dependence: Dependency Theory important. Development and underdevelopment 2 sides of the same coin. Development not a linear process. Capitalism is not going to collapse as Marx and Lenin predicted. Focus is on states instead of classes. North-South. For Interdependence Joseph Nye’s and Robert Keohane’s theory of complex interdependence important. (a recent Theory. 1990s. Interdependence, Military Power the only form of power, soft power, no hierarchy of issues.Important Reading: Theoretical Foundations of IPE (book Chapter). I Any Questions?* Works with such titles Intemational Political Economy and Politics of Intemational Economic Relations started getting published. Having its early scholars in the field of IR. * Now a multi disciplinary field and studies a variety of topics: I. Trade, North South Relations, hegemony, dependence and interdependence, Globalization and many other. Also sometimes referred as Global Political Economy. Important reading for Intro: What is International Political Economy? An excerpt from an article by Michael Veseth* Works with such titles Intemational Political Economy and Politics of Intemational Economic Relations started getting published. Having its early scholars in the field of IR. * Now a multi disciplinary field and studies a variety of topics: I. Trade, North South Relations, hegemony, dependence and interdependence, Globalization and many other. Also sometimes referred as Global Political Economy. Important reading for Intro: What is International Political Economy? An excerpt from an article by Michael Veseth