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International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 16 (2012) 66–76

Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and

Geoinformation
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jag

Assessing landscape changes and dynamics using patch analysis and GIS
modeling
Sushant Paudel, Fei Yuan ∗
Department of Geography, Minnesota State University, 7 Armstrong Hall, Mankato, MN 56001, United States

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Landscape ecology has brought spatial analysis and geospatial modeling to the forefront of ecological
Received 23 March 2011 research. In this study, we investigated changes in landscape structure and the ecological consequences
Accepted 4 December 2011 of urbanization in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area using spatial indices, change analysis, and geospatial
modeling. Major land transformation patterns from 1975 to 2006 were mapped using multi-temporal
Keywords: classification maps. Landscape metrics for 1975, 1986, 1998, and 2006 were calculated and analyzed
Landscape change
using Patch Analyst. The deforestation process due to urbanization in the future was modeled using
Landscape indices
GEOMOD within the framework of 2030 regional land use planning. Results reveal urban area expanded
GIS modeling
Regional land use planning
82% from 1975 to 2006, mainly by displacing forest and agricultural lands by in-filling gaps within the
Urban in-filling urban area or near its periphery. Leap-frog development was noticeably absent. Many small patches of
forest and agriculture located within or near the urban and suburban areas were replaced directly by
urban land uses. Urbanization has become ecologically complicated but geometrically simpler whereas
the rural landscape became less abundant and diverse. We predict: (1) forest cover will continue to
decrease consistently due to on-going urbanization process; and (2) the pattern of deforestation will
occur within the urban area due to in-filling and along its periphery as the urban area expands outward
into undeveloped areas.
© 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Landscapes are geographic areas identified by interacting
patches or ecosystems and human activities within them (Turner
et al., 2001). Some view landscape as a socio-spatial entity whereas
others see landscape as a geographic surface unit, focusing on
its natural components such as water, hills, fields and forests
(Linehan and Gross, 1998; Wascher, 2000). Landscape ecology
examines the relationships between spatial pattern and ecological
processes on a landscape level (Wu, 2008; Wu and Hobbs, 2007),
which show association between landscape structure, function, and
changes over time. Landscape structure provides a composition
and configuration of the landscape that affects ecological processes
independently and interactively (Gustafson, 1998). Land tranfor-
mation, habitat loss, and fragmentation are typical processes of
landscape change. Landscape ecology is a highly interdisciplinary
field that integrates biophysical and analytical approaches across
natural and social science and has brought spatial analysis and
modeling to the forefront of ecological research (Harbin and Wu,
2003). Major research conducted in previous studies includes: eco-
∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 507 389 2376; fax: +1 507 389 2980.
E-mail addresses: Sushant17@hotmail.com (S. Paudel), fei.yuan@mnsu.edu
(F. Yuan).
logical flows in landscape mosaics, land use and land cover change,
relating landscape pattern analysis with ecological processes, and
landscape conservation and sustainability.
The earth surface is undergoing a constant landscape change
resulting from a variety of natural and anthropogenic disturbances.
Natural disturbances include fires, storms, volcanic eruptions, hur-
ricanes, and floods. Human disturbances can assume many forms
such as pollution, alternation, habitat destruction, and fragmenta-
tion. A large amount of the earth’s terrestrial ecosystems have been
converted either to managed forest and agriculture or to residen-
tial systems due to the basic needs (e.g. food, fuel, and housing)
of humans (Botequilha Leitáo et al., 2006). To quantify landscape
structure and change, it is important to have a clear understand-
ing of landscape indices. Numerous indices have been developed
in the past few decades (Li et al., 2000). These indicies include
area, patch density and size, edge, shape, neareast neighbor, diver-
sity and interspersion, which provide useful information about the
compostion and configuration of landscape. Correlating the indices
with ecological phenomena can be useful for measuring changes in
landscape structure over time (Olsen et al., 2006).
Analysis results of landscape indices between spatial patterns
and processes can be used to inform planners or researchers about
landscape functions, which sometimes are difficult or impossible to
measure directly (Botequilha Leitáo et al., 2006). Landscape indices
can also be used to depict how urbanization affects landscape

0303-2434/$ – see front matter © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jag.2011.12.003
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S. Paudel, F. Yuan / International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 16 (2012) 66–76 67

structure (Li et al., 2000; DiBari, 2006; Tang et al., 2006). Another spatial dimension of sustainable planning using landscape metrics
major value of using landscape metrics is to identify varia- and modeling. It may improve our understanding of the ecological
tions within the indices and compare them multi-temporarily patterns of urbanization in the TCMA and contribute to the provi-
(Botequilha Leitáo and Ahern, 2002). Olsen et al. (2006) found sion of key information for decision making and management of
identifying landscape indicators to be an important component of natural resources.
building an effective environmental monitoring system. An analysis
of landscape dynamic by Shi et al. (2008) illustrated how economic
2. Methodology
development and population growth affects wetlands resources.
FRAGSTATS and Patch Analyst are the two main software pro-
2.1. Study site
grams for landscape metrics calculation. FRAGSTATS is a computer
software program designed to compute a wide variety of landscape
The seven-county Twin Cities Metropolitan Area (TCMA) charac-
metrics for categorical map patterns. It is a stand-alone program
terizes a typical large, mid-latitude, steadily growing metropolitan
written in Microsoft Visual C++ for use in the Windows Operating
area, located in southern Minnesota near heart of the North
environment (McGarigal et al., 2002). The original background doc-
American continent, with an area of approximately 7700 km2 of
umentation for FRAGSTATS can be found in McGarigal and Marks
Minnesota (Fig. 1). It includes a diversity of land cover classes
(1995). The program was completely revised in 2002. On the other
including urban, farmland, forest, wetland, and water. The Twin
hand, Patch Analyst works as an extension within ArcView and/or
Cities – St Paul and Minneapolis – are located at the center with
ArcGIS and contains a more recent update of software code relative
their surrounding suburbs. Topographically, the TCMA has very
to FRAGSTATS (Patch Analyst Mannul, 1999; Rempel, 2008). Either
low local relief with elevation ranges from 198 m to 370 m. Wright
of these two programs can compute various indices of hierarchy.
(1972) divided the physiography of Minnesota into several major
In addition to landscape indices, spatial models can also be used
regions based on differences in the underlying geology, soils, veg-
in simulations of landscape patterns, aiding in understanding and
etation, and environmental history. The TCMA can be separated
visualizing landscape dynamics. Using computer-based geographic
into five major physiographic areas: Anoka Sand Plain at the north,
information system (GIS) models and remote sensing data, we can
Rochester Till Plain at the south, Eastern St Croix Moraine, West-
simulate how particular landscape elements might change over
ern Owatonna Moraine, and the Minnesota River Valley. Other
time and space, and investigate different types of future scenarios
than the Anoka Sand Plain, the region contains numerous glacially
(Bergen et al., 1998; Maeda et al., 2010; Yuan, 2010). In this study,
carved lakes and surrounding wetlands, which tends to favor a
a Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) model, GEOMOD, which sim-
more expansive urban zone.
ulates change between two land cover categories, was used. This
The highly urbanized TCMA was not a heavily forested area.
model was originally built to simulate the loss of tropical forest
The vegetation at the time of settlement for this area was an oak
(Pontius and Malanso, 2005). Due to its transparency, repeatability,
savanna that was a narrow transitional vegetation belt between
and quantitative validation measures, it has been used in several
hardwood forests and prairie. Major forests are located in north-
other studies. For example, the GEOMOD model was used to help
ern Anoka County, eastern Washington County, and the Minnesota
develop land-use strategies to preserve biodiversity in the West-
River Valley. Currently, forest covers less than 13% of the total TCMA
ern Ghats (Menon and Bawa, 1997). GEOMOD was applied to show
area. In terms of socioeconomic development, the TCMA is the fif-
which parts of boreal forest landscape were selectively cleared for
teenth largest metropolitan statistical area in the United States. The
agricultural uses in the Canadian boreal forest (Tchir et al., 2004). It
core seven counties have a population of 2.82 million as of 2009, a
was also used to study the current and future impacts of fragmenta-
54% increase from the 1970 count of 1.83 million. The Metropolitan
tion on the spatial configuration of forest habitats in southern Chile
Council forecasts the metropolitan area’s population will increase
(Echeverria et al., 2008). The application was also utilized to pre-
to 3.61 million by 2030. In the past few decades, this area has expe-
dict the expansion of green houses and evaluate the results (Benito
rienced increasingly landscape change due to continuous urban
de Pando and Penas de Giles, 2008). In a recent study, Poelmans
expansion and population increase. As urban land consumes more
and Rompaey (2009) showed how urban sprawl in Belgium caused
of the rural land, we may be inviting rapid urban sprawl, mainly the
fragmentation at the landscape level.
discontinuous movement of residential and commercial land use
The objectives of this study are twofold: quantifying spatial
to rural areas at the outskirts of metropolitan areas, and landscape
and temporal changes of landscape patterns in the Twin Cities
structure changes in the study site.
Metropolitan Area (TCMA) of Minnesota using Patch Analyst and
change mapping; and predicting urban forest loss using GIS mod-
eling within the framework of 2030 regional land use planning. 2.2. Landscape patch analysis
Realizing that urban growth has expanded dramatically over the
years in this study site, it is hypothesized that a steep rise in urban In order to quantify changes in spatial and temporal patterns
areas will be identified from 1975 to 2006 whereas forest and crop- within the study area, landscape indices were calculated using
land decreased. Urban areas here include residential, commercial Patch Analyst 4.0 for ArcGIS 9.3. Landscape relates to all the patches
services, industrial, transportation, communications, industrial and or shapes in a theme. Patches examine individual polygons or a
commercial, mixed urban, and build-up land. In the future, forest contiguous set of cells. There are six categories of statistics avail-
land cover will decrease continuously as the result of continuous able in Patch Analyst: (1) Area Metrics which measure class or
urban expansion process. landscape area; (2) Patch Density and Size Metrics that reveal land-
Analyzing landscape indices and simulating landscape change scape fragmentation and configuration; (3) Edge Metrics which
dynamics can help users answer questions such as: “At what attribute the amount, length, and distribution of edges between
rate does the landscape change progress”? “What are the spatial specific patch types; (4) Shape Metrics which measure the geo-
patterns and spatio-temporal sequences of change”? While such metric complexity; (5) Diversity and Interspersion Metrics which
knowledge is essential when planning for sustainability, which measure patch isolation; and (6) Core Area Metrics which measure
involves the maintenance of natural resources and spatial pat- the size of the patch deprived of its outer belt. Some indices are only
terns of land use that are ecologically, socially, and economically applicable at the landscape level, while others are only applicable
beneficial, few studies have investigated the applicability of land- on shape themes or on grid themes. Both non-spatial composi-
scape metrics and modeling in planning. This study addresses the tion and spatial configuration were usually used to define spatial
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68 S. Paudel, F. Yuan / International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 16 (2012) 66–76
Fig. 1. The seven-county Twin Cities Metropolitan Area of Minnesota, USA.
heterogeneity and assess the fragmentation of natural ecosystems
(Giles and Trani, 1999; Tischendorf, 2001; Geneletti, 2004). Non-
spatial configuration includes the number of patches, patch size,
and relative abundance of patch types whereas the spatial compo-
sition includes patch shape, contrast and boundary characteristics.
This study used four land cover classification maps derived
from 1975, 1986, 1998, and 2006 Landsat data. The 1975 classi-
fication map is based on 79-m Landsat-1 Multispectral Scanner
(MSS) image while the other three maps are generated from 30-m
Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) images. The land cover classes
of the original classification maps include agriculture, wetland,
urban, grass, water and forest (Fig. 2). For 1975 and 2006 classi-
fications, single summer imagery, acquired on 29 July 1975 and
27 July 2006, respectively, were used. For 1986 and 1998 classi-
fications, two pairs of bi-temporal images, including June 2 and
August 23, 1986; May 18 and September 7, 1998, were obtained
and used. A supervised classification method based on guided clus-
tered training polygon and maximum likelihood decision rule were
used to classify all these images. Accordingly, higher overall accu-
racy rates (95.5%, 92.6%) were achieved for 1986 and 1998 than
those (85%, 85.7%) of 1975 and 2006. More detailed information
on the classifications can be found in Yuan et al. (2005) and Yuan
(2010).
The four classification images were converted to a vector for-
mat before they were used to calculate the indices. Five indices
as compositional measures were considered: (1) class area (CA),
(2) number of patches (NumP), (3) mean patch size (MPS), (4)
area-weighted mean shape index (AWMSI), and (5) edge density
(ED). CA, NumP, and MPS are non-spatial indices while AWMSI
and ED are spatial indices. In particular, CA is the sum of areas in
hectares of all patches belonging to a given class (Patch Analyst
Mannul, 1999). It is calculated by computing the area occupied by
a particular land cover type. NumP is a count of all the patches
within a class or across the entire landscape. The larger the land-
scape, the greater the probability of finding a larger number of
patches. CA and NumP together help to reveal landscape change
process. MPS is selected because it is the primary predictor of diver-
sity within a patch. AWMSI is the Shape index when each patch is
weighted by its area relative to the area of the corresponding land
cover type. AWMSI at the class level equals to the sum of the shape
value for each patch multiplied by the proportional abundance of
the patch. It is selected to assess patch diversity and patch sensi-
tivity to fragmentation. ED refers to amount of edge relative to the
landscape area and is related to the degree of spatial heterogene-
ity (Antwi et al., 2008). ED was chosen to quantify the dynamics
of the abundance and attributes of specific types of edges, and
infer the associated ecological effects. Table 1 provides the detailed
equations and explanations on these indices.
2.3. Landscape change analysis and forest cover modeling
A natural outgrowth after analyzing landscape indices is to
map major landscape changes and predict the status of landscape
change at some future date using GIS modeling. Landscape change
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S. Paudel, F. Yuan / International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 16 (2012) 66–76 69

Fig. 2. Land cover classification 1986 and 2006.

Images are modified from Yuan et al. (2005) and Yuan (2010).

Table 1
Landscape indices used in the study.

Indices Equations Explanations

n
aij
j=1
Class area (CA) CAi = A
(unit: ha) Where aij equals to the area (m2 ) of patch j for
the ith land cover type; A is the total landscape
area (m2 )

n

Number of patches (NumP) NumP = Pi (unit: none) Where Pi refers to patch of type i

n i=1
[ai ]
Mean patch size (MPS) MPS = i=1
m
(unit: ha) Where ai is the patch size, and m is the total

   number of the ith landscape

n

Area-weighted mean shape index (AWMSI) AWMSI =

Pij
min Pij
anij (unit: none) Where Pij is the perimeter of patch ij, min Pij
aij
j=1 equals to minimum perimeter of patch ij in
j=1
terms of number of cell edges, and aij equals to
the area (m2 ) of patch j for the ith land cover
type
TE
Edge density (ED) ED = TLA
(unit: m/ha) Where TE is total edge which is defined as the
length of edge that exists at the interface
between two classes; TLA is total landscape
area
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70 S. Paudel, F. Yuan / International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 16 (2012) 66–76
patterns from 1975 to 2006 were mapped and analyzed using
ArcGIS, while the GEOMOD in IDRISI, which is designed to simulate
change between two land categories, was adopted to predict forest
change into future years. We focused on forest to nonforest (mainly
urban) change because urban forests play a vital role in ecology of
human habitats by providing shelter to animals and cleaner air,
water, and recreational areas for people. They also modify local
urban climate and help conserve energy.
GEOMOD requires users’ specifications of the beginning time,
ending time, time step for the simulation, an image showing the
location of land use state 1 (forest) and state 2 (non-forest) at the
beginning time, a map of suitability showing the transition to land
use state 2, and the anticipated quantity of land use states 1 and 2
at the ending time. The suitability map has high values for locations
that have attributes of the state 2 of the beginning time. The model
searches for the highest suitability values if state 2 has to gain pixels
and vice versa. More detailed information about the model can be
found in Pontius and Hao (2006).
In the model, the 1998 land cover map was used as the base
layer since it has higher classification accuracy than the 2006 map.
Original land cover classes were recoded into two categories (forest
and non-forest). Multiple transition rules were incorporated when
creating the suitability map of forest to nonforest change. Besides
considering the principles that new forest development typically
grows out of a previous forest and urban development expands out-
ward from current urbanized areas, it also takes into account the
major TCMA regional land use planning goals described in the 2030
Regional Development Framework (Metropolitan Council, 2007).
For example, urban development should have higher priority if
it is located within the Metropolitan Urban Service Area (MUSA)
boundary; land use conversion should not occur in the reserved
agriculture areas delineated by the Metropolitan Council; desig-
nated urban development areas should have the highest priority of
forest to urban change, followed by rural center and rural residen-
tial areas; forests located in the regional significance areas should
be preserved; and finally distance to major roads also affect forest
change. Elevation factor is not considered since the TCMA has very
low relief and terrain change.
Related GIS layers of 2030 Regional Development Framework,
2030 MUSA boundary, regional significance areas, and the major
road dataset were collected from the GIS data portals of Metropoli-
tan Council and Minnesota Department of Natural Resources. All
the data were projected into Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM)
projection, zone 15N, GRS 1980. All raster and vector datasets were
processed in ArcGIS to match the grid extent and resolution of the
study area. Using these datasets, the suitability maps were created
based on the criteria aforementioned. The resulting suitability map
shown in Fig. 3a was stratified using the regional land use planning
areas (Fig. 3b), and was used together with the 1998 land cover
map to predict forest dynamics to 2030. A flow chart illustrating
the processing steps is provided in Fig. 4.
GEOMOD is designed to predict only the location where
landscape change is likely to occur, but does not predict the
quantity of change. To address this limitation and have a more
accurate estimate of the 2030 forest amount, findings from previous
studies in this site were used. Specifically, in a recent study, Yuan
(2010) predicted 67,000 hectares of urban expansion from 2006 to
2030 for this study site using a Markov-Cellular Automata (MCA)
model for urban growth simulation based on current regional
development plans. Also according to Yuan et al. (2005), approxi-
mately 21.3% of newly developed urban land uses in the TCMA in
the past two decades were converted from forest land. Based on
these statistics, a total amount of 14,271 ha (67,000 × 21.3%) forest
to urban change was estimated from 2006 to 2030. Subtracting this
amount from the 2006 forest (96,400 ha), the amount of 2030 for-
est was calculated as 82,129 ha. We believe this estimation is more
Table 2
Validation variables and their definitions for GEOMOD accuracy assessment.
Validation variable Definition
N(n) The agreement due to chance
N(m) The agreement between the reference map and a
modified comparison map, where the modification is
to randomize the locations of the raw cells within the
comparison map
H(m) The agreement between the reference map and a
modified comparison map, where the modification is
to randomize the locations of the cells within each
stratum of the comparison map
M(m) The agreement between the reference map and the
unmodified comparison map. M(m) is the proportion
of grid cells classified correctly, which is the most
commonly used measure of agreement between maps
K(m) The agreement between the reference map and a
modified comparison map, where the modification is
to rearrange as perfectly as possible the locations of
cells within each stratum of the comparison map in
order to maximize the agreement between the
modified comparison map and the reference map.
P(m) The agreement between the reference map and a
modified comparison map, where the modification is
to rearrange as perfectly as possible the locations of
cells within the entire comparison map in order to
maximize the agreement between the modified
comparison map and the reference map
P(p) Perfect agreement, which is the agreement between
the reference map and a map that has perfect
information of both quantity and location. Therefore,
P(p) is always 1
Kno Change-corrected overall agreement
Klocation The extent to which the two maps agree in terms of
location of each category)
Kstandard The extent to which the two maps agree in terms of
quantity of each category
Source: Pontius and Hao (2006).
accurate than simply assuming the same annual deforestation rate
from 1975 to 2030.
2.4. Model validation
It is impractical to assess how accurate the prediction of 2030
deforestation would be since it has not happened. However, for
model validation purposes, the 1998 suitability map was used in
conjunction with the 1998 forest land cover map to predict the 2006
forest. The model performance was assessed by comparing the sim-
ulated 2006 forest map to the actual 2006 forest classification map
using the VALIDATE module in IDIRISI.
The VALIDATE module calculates seven statistics denoted by
N(n), N(m), H(m), M(m), K(m), P(m), and P(p), which depict agree-
ment and disagreement between the components of the predicted
map and reference map. The VALIDATE module also computes
Kappa statistics, denoted by Kno, KStandard, and Klocation. Kappa
is an index that compares the agreement which might be expected
by chance. Kappa value ranges from +1 (perfect agreement) via 0
(no agreement above that expected by chance) to −1 (complete
disagreement) (Donner and Klar, 1996; Cohen, 1960). These param-
eters indicate the extent to which the two maps agree in terms of
location of each category and the extent to which the two maps
agree in terms of quantity of each category (Pontius et al., 2001).
Table 2 illustrates a more detailed description of these validation
variables.
3. Results
3.1. Landscape-level changes and indices from 1975 to 2006
Because urban, agriculture, and forest are the three domi-
nant land covers in the study site, their changes from 1975 to
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S. Paudel, F. Yuan / International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 16 (2012) 66–76 71

Fig. 3. Suitability map and 2030 regional planning areas used in the GEOMOD.
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72 S. Paudel, F. Yuan / International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 16 (2012) 66–76

Fig. 4. Flow chart of the modeling procedure.

2006 were emphasized. As noted in Table 3, urban land expanded
82% (1264 km2 ), while agriculture and forest land decreased 20%
(767 km2 ) and 14% (209 km2 ), respectively. As of 2006, urban land
cover (2795 km2 ) almost equaled to agriculture land (2965 km2 ),
with the rate of change accelerating after 1986 (Fig. 2).
Figs. 5 and 2 demonstrate the urban area expanded rapidly out-
ward and encroached rural land, especially those with agriculture
and forest cover. Most forest and agriculture to urban changes were
contiguous to the urbanized area. The notable exception was north
and northeast of the urbanized area in the Anoka Sand Plain in
Anoka County and in northern Washington County. Historically
agriculture has been less productive in these areas that have less
suitable soil and a higher proportion of wetland or forest. Less urban
sprawl occurred in areas that had good soil, historically profitable
farms, and fewer trees. Fig. 5 hints that the Metropolitan Council’s
agricultural protection policies have been effective, as the major-
ity of the reserved agriculture areas in Dakota and Carver Counties
were remained.
The landscape indices computed for the entire TCMA were listed
in Table 4. The landscape indices have the ability to discriminate
among landscape types and can be judged by examining their
geographic distribution. The shape index (AWMSI) for the entire
Table 3
Land cover change: 1975, 1986, 1998 and 2006.
Land cover 1975 1986 1998 2006
landscape across the study site was fairly stable over the years.
However, the number of patches dropped dramatically while the
mean patch size more than doubled from 1986 to 1998. Also dur-
ing the same period, the amount of edge relative to the landscape
area decreased from the original 66 m/ha to about 52 m/ha. These
changes imply the TCMA landscape in general became less spatially
complex over the years, with a decrease in the extended ecotones.
They also demonstrate the necessity of further examining the land-
scape at patch level.
3.2. Patch-level changes and indices from 1975 to 2006
Fig. 6 demonstrates the general change trends of number of
patches (NumP) and mean patch size (MPS) at patch level for the
three major land cover classes. The NumP associated with forest
and agriculture patches followed similar patterns, both of which
have a decreasing trend from 1975 to 2006. However, an increas-
ing size and the fluctuating NumP for urban areas are particularly
noteworthy (Fig. 6a). Heterogeneous human disturbance during
the urbanization process may be attributed to the varying num-
bers of patch in this urban landscape over the years. While NumP
decreased, Fig. 6b demonstrates MPS gradually increased over time
for all three major land cover types, especially for urban and agri-
culture. It suggests many small rural patches originally located in
Table 4
Indices at entire TCMA landscape level.

km2 % km2 % km2 % km2 % Year NumP MPS AWMSI ED

Urban 1531 20 1842 24 2404 31 2795 36 1975 61,458 16.9 13.49 65.54
Agriculture 3732 49 3655 47 3163 41 2965 39 1986 66,614 15.6 13.72 66.67
Forest 1173 15 1110 14 1041 14 964 13 1998 32,559 31.9 12.98 52.16
Others 1246 16 1148 15 1062 14 953 12 2006 35,435 29.3 13.45 52.48
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S. Paudel, F. Yuan / International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 16 (2012) 66–76 73

Fig. 6. Number of patches (NumP) and mean patch size (MPS) index for forest, urban,
and agriculture patches.

to 2006 (Fig. 7b). These findings further indicate the rural landscape
and the habitats of the TCMA became less diverse and abundant,
and again reinforce the urban in-filling pattern of land conversion.

3.3. Results of forest to non-forest prediction and model

assessment

TCMA is a highly urbanized area with approximately 13% forest

cover as of 2006. The forest dynamics simulation results demon-
strate that the urbanization and deforestation processes will affect
the remaining landscape consistently over the next few decades. A
decreasing forest pattern over time is shown in Fig. 8, which reveals
past trends and patterns of forest landscape change as indicated by
Fig. 5a will continue in the next two decades. Major predicted loca-
tions of deforestation were found within urban boundary and at

Fig. 5. Forest and agriculture change to urban from 1975 to 2006.

the urban and suburban areas might have been converted to urban,
resulting in fewer but larger patches in the study site. In other
words, urban in-filling rather than leap-frog development was the
norm. This situation is confirmed by the change patterns shown in
Fig. 5.
Fig. 7 displays how did the two spatial indices, AWMSI and ED,
change over time. Decreasing AWMSI indicates the shape of that
patch has become simpler and vice versa. The AWMSI of forest
decreased slightly while a higher decreasing trend can be found for
agriculture. This reveals rural landscape was becoming less diverse
or the spatial heterogeneity of various land covers in the TCMA was
decreasing. Conversely, urban AWMSI fluctuated more dramati-
cally, with the highest and lowest values found in 1986 and 2006,
respectively (Fig. 7a). The fluctuations of AWMSI may be a result of
merging or converting small patches of rural land into urban during
the urbanization process. Despite these fluctuations, the patches of
all three major land classes demonstrate a declining trend, hence a
decreasing diversity of the TCMA landscape. On the other hand, ED
for urban class retained a slight upward trend whereas the values Fig. 7. Area weighted mean shape index (AWMSI) and edge density (ED) of urban,
for agriculture and forest classes decreased significantly from 1975 forest and agricultural patches.
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74 S. Paudel, F. Yuan / International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 16 (2012) 66–76

Fig. 8. Predicted 2030 forest overlain with classified 2006 forest and urban land covers.

urban peripheries of the metropolitan area. A noteworthy excep-
tion was in the Anoka County, where more noncontiguous forest
to urban change was identified. This may be explained by the facts
that the Anoka Sand Plain historically has higher proportion of for-
est land, less suitable soil for agriculture, and has higher urban
sprawl rate in the past few decades (Yuan et al., 2005). Reserved
agriculture areas in Dakota and Carver Counties are predicted to be
remained by 2030. Most changes will still be in the form of small
patches of forests within or near urban boundary being replaced by
developed land uses (residential, industrial, or commercial uses),
leading to larger mean forest patches, but a declining number of
overall patches in the next few decades.
Although it is impractical to assess how accurate the prediction
of 2030 forest/nonforest will be, an overall agreement of 93.3%, the
M(m) value in Table 5, was obtained when comparing the mod-
eled 2006 forest map to the reference map derived from the 2006
land cover classification. The agreement due to chance (N(n)) equals
to 0.33 since there are three classes – forest, nonforest, and back-
ground – in the image. Because the image is not stratified, N(m)
and H(m) have the same value, as do K(m) and P(m). A high chance-
corrected overall Kappa agreement (Kno) of 90% was achieved. The
agreements between the two maps in terms of location and quan-
tity of each category are about 70% (Table 5). These assessment
results reveal while many factors may affect urban forest dynam-
ics, the principle that new forest development typically grows out
of previous forest does play a fundamental role in determining the
locations of future forest. Combined with the rules and strategies
of regional planning, the predicted 2030 deforestation map should
be more reliable than the one predicted for 2006.
4. Discussion

Landscape indices analysis and land transformation modeling

Table 5
Accuracy assessment results for the GEOMOD. are keys for ecological studies in order to quantify fundamental
components of landscape structure and to assess the dynamics in
Validation variable Value
the abundance, geometric complexity, fragmentation, and other
N(n) 0.33 attributes of landscape. Their analyses can provide the basis for
N(m), H(m) 0.78 comparing alternative landscape scenarios or for understanding
M(m) 0.93
K(m), P(m) 0.995
changes in landscape conditions over time and provide definitive
P(p) 1.00 and quantitative data about exact landscape structure–function
Kno 0.90 relationship. In this manner, they can provide the basis for compar-
Klocation 0.71 ing alternative landscape scenarios or for understanding changes in
Kstandard 0.70
landscape conditions over time.
 Author's personal copy

S. Paudel, F. Yuan / International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 16 (2012) 66–76 75

Although landscape indices facilitate landscape planning by pro- between two land cover categories. It assumes there is no regrowth
viding useful information on the overall spatial landscape pattern of disturbed areas, which may not always hold true. It does not
while maintaining both statistical and ecological meaning, they predict the quantity of change. However, the GEOMOD can take
have their limitations. These limitations play a critical role in order maximum advantage of data that can vary highly in availabil-
to ensure proper use of landscape indices in the planning process. ity, completeness, precision, currency, and accuracy (Pontius and
Corry and Nassauer (2005) summarized the limitations of using Hao, 2006). In this study, the GEOMOD model was improved by
landscape indices to evaluate the ecological consequences of alter- coupling an accurate estimate of future forest quantity that takes
native plans and designs. For example, the statistical properties into consideration of the interacting forces of urban growth, land
and behavior of some landscape indices do not show a relationship cover characteristics, and regional planning. An overall agreement
between landscape indices and ecological functions. Researchers (93.3%) and a high chance-corrected overall Kappa agreement (90%)
are not able to interpret effects on ecological processes without were achieved. This result demonstrates that a relatively simple
empirical studies. Another limitation is that some indices only GEOMOD with basic inputs can provide an accurate tool for evalu-
offer landscape interpretation by themselves and do not convey ating patterns of land transformation in an urban environment. In
any information about the distribution of patch areas (McGarigal practice, a land change model can never be perfect since landscape
and Marks, 1995). For example, two landscapes containing identi- change is a highly dynamic process. The results from this study
cal patch types and number of patches can still be very different. point out that a low data demanding model based on a suitability
One landscape may have all patches clustered in a specific locale, map performs well, particularly when the interacting forces were
whereas the patches may be scattered evenly across the other taken into consideration within the framework of 2030 regional
landscape. These limitations of landscape indices analysis can be land use planning. It also presents a validation method to assess
partially addressed by spatial change detection and modeling tech- model performance quantitatively.
niques using GIS and remote sensing (Sudhira et al., 2004), and
by direct map visualization, as demonstrated in this and previous
5. Conclusions
similar studies in the TCMA.
In particular, land cover change for the TCMA from 1986 to 2002
The TCMA rapidly expanded by taking over forest and agri-
was first mapped by Yuan et al. (2005) using Landsat images and
cultural lands. The expansion of new urban areas in previous
various ancillary data. They found the amount of urban increased
non-urban areas contributed to changes in the distribution of rural
from 23.7% to 32.8% of the total geographic area during the 12
land cover types and exerted increasing land development pressure
year span whereas agriculture and forest decreased from 69.6%
on the remaining natural landscape within the metropolitan area.
to 60.5%. Manson and Bauer (2006) further explored the under-
This situation was exhibited by steady urban growth from 1975 to
lying causes of the TCMA land change from 1986 to 1998. They
2006, with additional small pieces of rural land cover types, origi-
used statistical spatial regression and cellular automata model-
nally located within the urban and suburban areas, being in-filled.
ing two methods to explore urbanization in the study site. Their
Very little leap-frog development was revealed. This actually rein-
spatial regression analysis showed that policy instruments guiding
forces good planning, especially given the presence of numerous
development were the most powerful factors influencing urban-
lakes and wetlands scattered throughout much of the region that
ization. Their cellular model illustrated the role of incremental
favors sprawl.
growth outward from existing urban areas. While they found their
The physical change in landscape structure occurring during
model performed far better when they knew how much growth to
this transformation process had significant impacts on landscape
expect, no quantitative accuracy assessment was provided in their
function, especially in the alteration of natural energys, nutrient
study.
flows, and species diversity. Decreasing NumP and AWMSI trends
To demonstrate how urban growth can be driven by policies
but increasing MPS and ED index for urban area suggest continu-
in this study area, Yuan (2010) modeled urban growth based on
ous urban expansion resulted in a geometrically simpler but larger
two scenarios with or without regional development policies incor-
and more complicated urban landscape. Conversely, for major rural
porated using a Markov-Cellular Automata (MCA) model. Local
classes, NumP, AWMSI and ED trends are declining while MPS are
city-level urban growth within the metropolitan area was exam-
rising. While landscape fragmentation in the TCMA is not observed
ined by a GIS zonal analysis. The MCA model projected at least
due to urban in-filling rather than leap-frog development, the
another 67,000 ha of urban growth from 2006 to 2030 based on cur-
decline in edge area or ecotones is consistent with less biologi-
rent regional development plans. The study also found that actual
cal diversity. The analyses confirm landscape indices can capture
land supplies within the cities along the urban edge are facing
significant aspects of landscape patterns.
challenges to accommodate the projected growth. In the study,
Major deforestation by 2030 will likely occur within the urban
a quantitative accuracy assessment was performed and a model
area due to in-filling and along urban peripheries as urbanization
overall accuracy of 77% was reported. For the urban class, a relative
continues to be strongly influenced by long-term regional land use
high user’s accuracy (84.3%) was achieved, whereas for the forest
planning. Urban forest provides a wide range of environmental and
class, much lower accuracies were found (user’s accuracy = 66.4%;
social benefits, which include improved wildlife habitat and aes-
producer’s accuracy = 69.3%), which implies further studies are nec-
thetics, and reduction of the urban heat island effect, stormwater
essary to better investigate the change dynamics of forest.
runoff, air pollution, and energy costs. The consistent loss in urban
Drawing on the results of previous studies, this research
forest may have potentially detrimental consequences. The results
improves landscape change study by using an integrated method
from this study should encourage land managers and policymak-
of spatial indices analysis, change mapping, and geospatial mod-
ers to use GIS models as tools for explorative planning, scenario
eling. Different from previous studies in the TCMA, it emphasizes
development and environmental impact assessment.
landscape structure changes, the ecological consequences of urban-
ization, forest change dynamics rather than the urban growth
analysis only. The GEOMOD that has been used frequently to ana- Acknowledgements
lyze baseline scenarios of deforestation for carbon offset projects
was adopted. Unlike other widely used land use models such This project is a follow-up study of the landscape change and
as cellular automata model, artificial neural network method, modeling research that was partially funded by a 2008 Minnesota
and agent-based model, the GEOMOD can only simulate change State University Faculty Summer Research Grant. We thank Dr.
 Author's personal copy
76 S. Paudel, F. Yuan / International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 16 (2012) 66–76
Martin Mitchell from the Department of Geography for his help
in reviewing and proofreading this manuscript. Many thanks also
go to all the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments
and suggestions.
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