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in Conflict Maritime Areas: Lessons for Oil and Gas Exploration in the South China Sea for the Philippines
Fiscal Regimes Issues in Attracting Investment for Oil and Gas Exploration
Oil and Gas Fiscal Regimes for On-Shore and Shallow Oil & Gas Exploration
Phases since 1974: 1974 1984: strong increases in government take: Due to increase sin oil prices and reduction in acreage through nationalizations 1984 2003: decreases in government take: Due to decrease in oil prices and Expansion of acreage (political and technological) 2003 2008: increases in government take: Due to Increase in oil prices and also greater volatility of oil and gas prices and No more new acreage 2009 - 2010: In the short term there is a downward pressure on government take due to the financial crisis. The main trends in the structure of the oil and gas government take are the following: Reduction of corporate income tax rates Globalization of VAT Possible wider introduction of carbon taxes Reduction of import duties and cost base taxes More emphasis on price sensitive fiscal features Less emphasis on taxation structures that overencourage capital investment Transition to fiscal structures designed for expensive oil and gas resources.
Omorogbe, Yinka, Prof Department of Public & International law, University of Ibadan; Fiscal Regimes; Nigerian Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) , Civil Society Capacity Building Workshop; Nigeria; July 2005 ; Unpublished
Daniel , P. , Goldsworthy, B., Maliszewski, W., Mesa Puyo, D. and Watson, A.; Evaluating Fiscal Regimes for Resource Projects: An Example from Oil Development; International Monetary Fund; September 2008; Unpublished
Comparative Fiscal Regimes for Offshore Oil & Gas Exploration in South East Asia
Source: Taylor, A; Grant, J; Holroyd, P; Kennedy, M; Mackenzie, K; Achieving a Win-Win From Oil and Gas Developments in the Northwest Territories; The Pembina Institute Sustainable Energy Solutions; January 2010
Economic impact of oil boom on other sectors. Unless foreign earnings are kept offshore and not brought into the country (this is called sterilizing), a sudden increase in foreign exchange income results in currency appreciation (in Cambodia this would mean the riel becoming stronger relative to the U.S dollar)
Relaxing market discipline and slowing down economic reform. Large inflows of income during a boom eases pressure for reform and weaken fiscal discipline. Rather than using the extra income to implement reform, government uses the oil wealth to continue protectionist measures that are market-distorting. Misuse of oil revenues. Large oil revenues allow government to pursue misguided policies that benefit powerful and entrenched urban vested interests, enable overspending through job creation in a bloated public sector and investment in large and inefficient public-sector firms, and, in times of boom, they can also be used as collateral to increase borrowing. Intensified conflicts. Where there is already ethnic or fractional strife, competition for resource revenues exacerbates it, as past and present experience in Angola, Nigeria, and Iraq demonstrates. Resource abundance tends to be associated with greater frequency or duration of civil war. Competitive manufacturing versus protected industrialization. Resource-poor countries have tended to embark on competitive manufacturing earlier than resource-rich countries.
Source: Norways wealth: Not just oil, Thorvaldur Gylfason, 6 June 2008; http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/1199
Taylor, A; Grant, J; Holroyd, P; Kennedy, M; Mackenzie, K; Achieving a Win-Win From Oil and Gas Developments in the Northwest Territories; The Pembina Institute Sustainable Energy Solutions; January 2010
United Kingdom - The Department of Energy and Climate Change grants licenses. The UK government annually solicits new entrants to the United Kingdom Continental Shelf (UKCS) thru licensing rounds with less demanding terms and the fallow acreage initiative, where non-active licenses have to be relinquished.
Norway - The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) grants licenses.
Denmark - The Danish Energy Authority (DEA) administers the Danish sector.
Netherlands - The Dutch sector is located in the Southern Gas Basin and shares a grid pattern with Germany. Germany - Germany shares Oil and gas basin with the Netherlands. Germany has the smallest sector in the North Sea.
Chinas approach to the South China Sea dispute reflected a re-orientation of Beijings diplomacy in Southeast Asia, which is characterize as charm offensive or soft power. Tensions declined when China & ASEAN signed the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) in 2002.
The DOC has been ineffective in managing the dispute in the South China Sea. Howerver, the DOC does seem to serve as a stepping stone for further discussion and policy deliberation among the claimant countries.
Source: Li Mingjiang, Chinas South China Sea Policy: Claims and Changing Contexts; Conference on the South China Sea : Towards a Region of Peace, Cooperation & Progress; Foreign Service Institute, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam and the National Defense College; July 5-6, 2011, Manila; Unpublished http://nghiencuubiendong.vn/trung-tam-du-lieu-bien-dong/cat_view/168-the-south-china-sea-toward-a-region-of-peace-cooperation-and-progress
Variants in Chinese approaches China and Vietnam : Compartmentalization of the South China Sea Tension China and Philippines: Soft power and territorial defense China and Malaysia: bilateralism and multilateralism China and Taiwan: Joint development thru a Multilateralism mechanism China and ASEAN: Signed the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) in 2002.
Source: Thayer, C; Security Cooperation in the South China Sea: An Assessment of Recent Trends ; Conference on the South China Sea : Towards a Region of Peace, Cooperation & Progress; Foreign Service Institute, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam and the National Defense College; July 5-6, 2011, Manila; Unpublished
In the words of President Aquino, ZoPFF/C is a modality for ensuring that "what is ours is ours, and with what is disputed, we can work towards joint cooperation.
Source: A Rules-Based Regime in The South China Sea By: Albert F. Del Rosario, Secretary of Foreign Affairs; http://dfa.gov.ph/main/index.php/newsroom/dfa-releases/3140-a-rules-based-regime-in-the-south-china-sea-by-albert-f-del-rosario-secretary-of-foreign-affairs
Source: http://archive.unu.edu/unupress/unupbooks/80a04e/80A04E0a.htm
The South China Sea issues is being managed informally by the workshop process that has lasted for more than 20 years. The workshop on the South China Sea was not intended to solve territorial disputes among the various Claimants, but aimed to achieve: (1) devising cooperative programs, in which all participants can take part so that the parties learned the use of cooperation in view of heir habits of confrontation in the past, (2) promoting dialog among the directly interested parties, so that they could find out solution to their problems, and
(3) to develop confidence building process so that everyone will feel comfortable with one another. Experiences with regard to the South China Sea issues indicated that technical cooperation is relatively easier to achieve than resources distribution, and more difficult with regard to the territorial as well as sovereignty and jurisdictional issues.
Policy Recommendations
Proposals for an Effective Fiscal Regime in Attracting Oil & Gas Exploration Investments
An oil & gas exploration investor is more likely to invest in a country with a fiscal regime that provides a 90 percent government take while allowing a rate of return of 20 percent than a fiscal regime that provides a 50 percent government take while permitting only a 10 percent rate of return. The more appropriate measures of the attractiveness of a fiscal regime are: Rate of return permitted to the investor on development based n peer group Profit-to-investment ratio of development (a measure of the capital efficiency and therefore a guide to where a company should direct its capital) Exploration cover ratio (a guide to whether it is worth investing in trying to discover hydrocarbons in the first place)
Learn from the Philippines experience in squandered natural resource wealth from forestry and mineral resources and from the Malaysian and Dutch Oil Wealth Management Policy.
Apply International Law in Managing Territorial Disputes without appearing to be siding with the US and or Japan Assert Philippine rights under the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) on the applicability of the UNCLOS in the South China Sea Assert Philippine rights under the International Seabed Authority (ISBA) for rights to the ocean seabed beyond UNCLOS .
The End
Spratly Island Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking and the North Luzon Railways Project
The Joint Marine Seismic Undertaking (JMSU) refers survey for oil in the Spratly Islands as signed last March 14, 2005 by the PNOC Exploration Corporation (PNOC-EC), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and Vietnam Oil and Gas Corporation (PetroVietnam). The JMSU covers an area of 142,886 kilometers west of Palawan. The first phase was between September 1 to November 16, 2005 covering 11,000 line kilometers. The Chinese seismic vessel M/V Nan Hai 502 conducted the survey. Data gathered from the first phase of the survey was processed in Vietnam. Data interpretation was done in Manila by the PNOC-EC. The second phase of seismic acquisition, covering 11,800 kilometers, started October 2007. It was supposed to be completed January 2008. A condition for the finalization of the North Luzon Railway Project is the finalization of the JMSU.
The Geology and Mineral Resources Ministry of the People's Republic of China (PRC) has estimated that the Spratly area holds oil and natural gas reserves of 17.7 billion tons (1.60 1010 kg), as compared to the 13 billion tons (1.17 1010 kg) held by Kuwait, placing it as the fourth largest reserve bed in the world.
GDP (current US$) GDP growth (annual %) GDP per capita (current US$)
States and markets
..
55
..
48
45.1billion
96.9 billion
6.8 billion
1 billion 6.6
2.2 billion
1 billion .1
inflows (BoP, current US$) Long-term debt (DOD, current 418.7 billion 400.2 billion 172.7 billion US$) 1 .4 1 6.1 1 .4 1 Total debt service (% of exports of goods, services and income) 8.6 billion 9.5 billion 1 billion 3.2 Official development assistance and official aid (current US$) 1 billion 6.7 45.0 billion 4.6 billion Workers' remittances and compensation of employees, received (US$) Source: World Development Indicators database, April 2007
IMF Debt & Reserve Related Indicator of External Vulnerability (50% limit debt to GDP ratio)
32.6 billion
575.2 million
561 million .8
8.8 billion
6.2 billion
1 billion 3.6
24.63%
13.34%
50.54%
28.01%
66.93%
55.59%