[1]

War 5tudies Oissertation Coversheet zj

5tudent Name:
Caterina Per|ini

Tit|e:
Oemocracy in the Midd|e East: Externa| 5trategies
and Oomestic Po|itics
Candidate number: N6z j 5tudent Number: 6j

Name of First MarkerjOissertation Advisor:
1ack 5pence
Mark:
)

Oissertation Advisor's comments:





5econd Marker: Mark: )
5econd Marker's Comment:





Agreed Mark: )



[2]

Democracy in the Middle East:

External Strategies and Domestic Politics



Dissertation
M.A. International Relations


King`s College, London

Caterina Perlini
SID# 1018600/1
Candidate Number: N16201















[3]


Table of Contents

1. Introduction p.4

1.1 Literature Review p.7
1.2 Methodology oI Research p.10
1.3 Theoretical Framework p.11


2. External Influences and Middle East Democratization p.16

2.1 Stability verses Democracy p.16
2.2 Democratic DiIIusion p.22


3. Domestic Forces and the Struggle for Democracy p.25
3.1 The Resilience oI Authoritarianism p.25
3.2 The Collapse oI the Authoritarian Bargain p.33


4. Democracy in the Middle East: Prospects and Challenges p.39
4.1 The Arab Spring: Challenges Ahead p.39
4.2 The Role oI the Army in the Transition Period p.41
4.3 What has changed? p.43


5. Conclusion p.46

ibliography p.50

Word Count: 14,950
[4]

1 Introduct|on

AuLhorlLarlan governmenLs ln Lhe Mlddle LasL parLlcularly ln Lhe reglon's Arab core have
largely remalned reslsLanL Lo Lhe processes of democraLlzaLlon LhaL have engulfed oLher parLs of Lhe
world slnce Lhe 1970s 1hls perlod ls assoclaLed wlLh Lhe Lhlrd wave of democraLlzaLlon LhaL began ln
SouLhern Lurope ln Lhe mld1970s spread Lo SouLh Amerlca ln Lhe early 1980s and reached LasL
SouLheasL and SouLh Asla by Lhe laLe 1980s 1he end of Lhe 1980s wlLnessed a rlse of LranslLlons
from CommunlsL auLhorlLarlan rule ln LasLern Lurope and Lhe former SovleL unlon as well as a Lrend
Loward democracy ln CenLral Amerlca and SouLh Afrlca
1
1hls wave however dld noL reach Lhe
Mlddle LasL ln facL Lhe reglon ls noL only sLrlklngly less pollLlcally free Lhan any oLher reglon buL
accordlng Lo lreedom Pouse's annual reporLs lL ls also sllghLly less so Loday Lhan lL was ln Lhe
1980s
2
uurlng Lhe lasL quarLer of a cenLury noL one Arab leader has been removed from offlce
Lhrough compeLlLlve elecLlons ln Lhls Lhe Mlddle LasL has experlenced Lhe fewesL reglme changes
on average among predomlnanLly nonCLCu reglons
3

uurlng Lhe mldand laLe 1980s a number of counLrles ln Lhe Mlddle LasL had engaged ln
pollLlcal llberallzaLlon and democraLlzaLlon 1hls was parLly a resulL of escalaLlng popular dlssenL wlLh
auLhorlLarlan leaders LhaL caused ma[or rloLs ln opposlLlon Lo Lhe esLabllshed pollLlcal order 1hese
domesLlc pressures led Lo pollLlcal progress ln such counLrles as Morocco Algerla 1unlsla LgypL
?emen and !ordan
4
Lach of Lhese counLrles experlenced an lncrease ln pollLlcal acLlvlLy ln parLlcular
Lhrough elecLlons LhaL conLalned some degree of Lransparency ?eL noL only has progress Lowards
genulne pollLlcal change remalned slow across Lhe enLlre reglon buL lL has also encounLered sLeep
decllne CounLrles LhaL lnLended Lo llberallze Lhelr pollLlcal sysLems have malnLalned resLrlcLlons on
pollLlcal parLlclpaLlon and compeLlLlon hereby llmlLlng opposlLlon and guaranLeelng Lhe survlval of

1
PunLlngLon (1991) p13
2
'lreedom of Lhe World 2011 1he AuLhorlLarlan Challenge Lo uemocracy'
hLLp//wwwfreedomhouseorg/lmages/llle/flw/llW202011208ookleL_1_11_11pdf !uly 22 2011
3
noland (2003) p1
4
Carnham (1993) pp xxl lnLroducLlon
[5]

Lhe reglme ln place 1here has also been a slgnlflcanL amounL of backslldlng ln Lhe case of Algerla for
lnsLance efforLs of democraLlc progress were puL on hold ln Lhe early 1990s reverLlng back Lo
auLhorlLarlan mlllLary rule
3
8ecenL slgns of pollLlcal change ln Lhe reglon were equally followed by
furLher backslldlng ln 2010 ln LgypL for lnsLance Lhe parllamenLary elecLlons of 2003 were halled as
a ma[or slgn of democraLlc success Powever Lhe llmlLed plurallsm LhaL marked Lhe 2003 elecLlons
soon deLerloraLed glvlng way Lo wldespread represslon opposlLlon crackdown and fraud durlng Lhe
2010 voLe Slmllarly Lhe LgypLlan medla whlch had wlLnessed llmlLed openlngs durlng Lhe pasL
several years faced Lhe closure of varlous publlcaLlons and Lhe arresL of several [ournallsLs
6
ln Lhe
Culf SLaLes kuwalL experlenced a decllne of lLs clvll llberLles slnce 2010 due Lo 'resLrlcLlons on
freedom of expresslon and freedom of assembly'
7
and 8ahraln carrled ouL a campalgn of represslon
dlrecLed agalnsL Lhe counLry's ma[orlLy populaLlon of Shla Musllms
8


ln uecember 2010 afLer a long perlod of absence a sLraLeglc player reLurned Lo Lhe pollLlcal
sLage of Lhe Mlddle LasL Lhe people ln 1unlsla LgypL Algerla !ordan Saudl Arabla Morocco Syrla
?emen 8ahraln Cman and Llbya proLesLers flooded Lhe sLreeLs demandlng accounLable
governmenL and ln some cases reglme change ln 1unlsla and LgypL Lhls popullsL wave overLhrew
Lwo of Lhe reglon's mosL reslllenL dlcLaLors Zlne elAbldlne 8en All of 1unlsla had been ln power for
24 years and was ousLed ln !anuary of Lhls year Slmllarly LgypL's Posnl Mubarak surrendered hls
powers ln lebruary 2011 endlng hls LhlrLy year long presldency uesplLe Lhese recenL sLlrrlngs LhlrLy
years afLer Lhe beglnnlng of Lhe Lhlrd wave pollLlcal llberallzaLlon ln Lhe reglon has sLlll largely falled
Lo remove lncumbenL ellLes and empower Lhelr opponenLs

3
larley (March 1993) 'Algerla uemocracy 'on hold''
hLLp//flndarLlclescom/p/arLlcles/ml_m2242/ls_n1326_v262/al_13810337/?LagmanLle_sklnconLenL AugusL
04 2011
6
'lreedom ln Lhe World 2011 1he AuLhorlLarlan Challenge Lo uemocracy'
hLLp//wwwfreedomhouseorg/lmages/llle/flw/llW202011208ookleL_1_11_11pdf p 3 !uly 22 2011
7
lbld p3
8
Shla ls one of Lwo denomlnaLlons ln lslam Lhe oLher belng Sunnl lslam Shlas make up an esLlmaLed 10 of
Lhe Musllm populaLlon and are mosLly locaLed ln Azerbal[an 8ahraln lran lraq ?emen and parLs of
AfghanlsLan Lebanon Syrla and 1urkey Sunnls accounL for an esLlmaLed 90 and are found all over Lhe world
See Shora nawar (2009) p33
[6]

ln llghL of Lhese evenLs Lhe onseL of Lhe LwenLy flrsL cenLury shows an Arab world LhaL has
largely mlssed Lhe opporLunlLy Lo move Lowards democracy human rlghLs and economlc as well as
soclal progress on a varleLy of fronLs Powever domesLlc demands for democraLlc reforms are
lncreaslng and are llkely Lo remaln aL Lhe core of pollLlcal llfe lor now noL one successful
democracy has emerged ln Lhe Arab world where oneparLy sLaLes conLlnue Lo Lhrlve
9
nor ln Lhe
words of Lebanese [ournallsL Pazem Saghla 'has a leader emerged amongsL us LhaL would have Lhe
modesLy of nlcaraguan dlcLaLor uanlel CrLega who accepLed wlLhouL bloodshed Lhe resulL of Lhe
peaceful elecLlons LhaL demoLed hlm'
10
lreedom Pouse's lteeJom lo tbe wotlJ 2011 reporL
supporLs Lhese assumpLlons sLresslng LhaL LhlrLeen ouL of slxLeen Arab counLrles classlfy as 'noL
free' Lhe excepLlons belng Lebanon Morocco and kuwalL graded as 'parLly free'
11
ln Lhls Arab
counLrles are recognlsed as commonly manlpulaLlng elecLlons and Lhe medla as well as oppresslng
nongovernmenLal organlzaLlons
1hls sLory of Lhe Mlddle LasL's sLruggle wlLh democracy and of Lhe forces LhaL have made Lhe
reglon reslsLanL Lo democraLlzaLlon for such a conslderable perlod of Llme as well as Lhose LhaL are
lncreaslngly pushlng for change Loday ls Lhe sub[ecL of Lhls paper's lnvesLlgaLlon WhaL facLors
exLernal and lnLernal explaln Lhe currenL level of (non)democraLlzaLlon ln Lhe Mlddle LasL?
Moreover glven recenL democraLlc sLlrrlngs whaL are Lhe prospecLs for successful LranslLlon Lo
democracy? 1he baslc answer of Lhls sLudy ls LhaL Lhe conLemporary weak sLaLe of democraLlzaLlon
ln Lhe Mlddle LasL ls as much a resulL of lnLernaLlonal lnfluences as of domesLlc forces and
calculaLlons lor decades exLernal lnfluences have provlded flnanclal and leglLlmacy resources LhaL
have supporLed auLocraLlc reglmes ln Lhe Arab world Meanwhlle auLhorlLarlan governmenLs ln Lhe
Mlddle LasL have proved proflclenL aL allocaLlng power and wealLh ln Lhe hands of Lhe cenLral sLaLe
heavlly lnvesLlng ln coerclve securlLy apparaLuses Lo suffocaLe exLernal as well as lnLernal pressures
for democraLlc reform Powever recenL lnLernaLlonal pressures for democraLlzaLlon coupled wlLh

9
8ubln (2002) pp 2223
10
Saghla (2001)
11
'lreedom ln Lhe World 2011 1he AuLhorlLarlan Challenge Lo uemocracy'
hLLp//wwwfreedomhouseorg/lmages/llle/flw/llW202011208ookleL_1_11_11pdf !uly 22 2011
[7]

Lhe wlde reachlng effecLs of globallzaLlon and Lhe Lremendous changes ln Lhe reglon's
demographlcs have lncreased pollLlcal awareness LhroughouL Lhe Mlddle LasL and provoked a
relenLless momenLum for change 1hus alLhough Lhe reglon sLlll faces ma[or obsLacles Lo successful
democraLlzaLlon demands for [usL and LransparenL governmenL wlll llkely remaln a cenLral parL of
Arab pollLlcal llfe


11L|terature kev|ew

1he concern over lssues of democracy ln Lhe Mlddle LasL has been prevalenL among
academlcs slnce Lhe end of Lhe Cold War and Lhe subsequenL Lhlrd wave of global democraLlzaLlon
from whlch Lhe Mlddle LasL was largely exempL lL appeared LhaL Lhere were a number of 'hybrld
reglmes' ln Lhe Arab world
12
1hus Lhe remarkable reslllence of auLhorlLarlanlsm ln Lhe reglon has
produced a greaL amounL of scholarshlp 1he llLeraLure ls fllled wlLh hypoLheses speculaLlve
concluslons and Lheorles abouL Lhe core forces behlnd Lhe democracy deflclL ln Lhe Mlddle LasL
8ooks wlLh LlLles llke 8aphael aLal's @be Atob MloJ publlshed ln 1973 and Lllle kedourle's
uemoctocy ooJ Atob lolltlcol coltote lssued ln 1992 emphaslze Lhe Lype of overgenerallzaLlons Lhe
Arab world has been sub[ecLed Lo 1hey pose a provocaLlve reducLlonlsL and overly culLurallsL Lhesls
argulng LhaL lL ls Lhe Arabs and Arab culLure lLself LhaL lmpedes democraLlc pollLlcs Slmllarly Samuel
PunLlngLon's 1996 closb of clvlllzotloos explalns LhaL lslam ls lncompaLlble wlLh democraLlc values
and speaks of 'lslam's bloody borders' clalmlng LhaL wherever Lhe lslamlc world collldes wlLh oLher
clvlllzaLlons confllcLs emerge
13

As Llme progresses however Lhese flndlngs are dlspuLed by more nuanced evaluaLlons of
Arab pollLlcs ubllshed ln Lhe mld1990s uavld Carnham's uemoctocy wot ooJ leoce lo tbe MlJJle
ost exposes Lhe role of confllcL ln shaplng Lhe democracy deflclL ln Lhe Mlddle LasL especlally wlLh

12
ulamond (2002) '1hlnklng AbouL Pybrld 8eglmes'
13
PunLlngLon (1996) pp 234233
[8]

regards Lo Lhe everlasLlng Arablsraell confllcL erhaps Lhe mosL exLenslve and lnformaLlve Lngllsh
language source on Lhe Arab democracy deflclL ls lolltlcol llbetollzotloo ooJ uemoctotlzotloo lo tbe
Atob wotlJ publlshed ln 1993 and edlLed by 8ex 8rynen 8ahgaL korany and aul noble 1hls work
conslsLs of a varleLy of analyses from a large number of experLs on Arab pollLlcs from Lhe Mlddle
LasL norLh Amerlca and Lurope such as Llsa Anderson Saad Lddln lbrahlm Mlchael Pudson
MervaL PaLem Cregory Cause and uanlel 8rumberg 1helr assessmenL of Lhe lssue of pollLlcal
change ln Lhe Mlddle LasL ls malnly falr and aLLempLs Lo Lake lnLo accounL Lhe wlde varleLy of
lnLernal and exLernal forces shaplng democraLlzaLlon ln Lhe Arab conLexL ln parLlcular lL hlghllghLs
Lhe lmporLance of economlcs clvll socleLy and lnLernaLlonal relaLlons over culLural prerequlslLes
More recenLly Mehran kamrava ln her @be MoJeto MlJJle ost A lolltlcol nlstoty sloce tbe lltst
wotlJ wot publlshed ln 2011 ls one of few auLhors of recenL LexLs Lo provlde for a Lhorough
examlnaLlon of Lhe pollLlcal hlsLory of Lhe modern Mlddle LasL slnce Lhe demlse of Lhe CLLoman
Lmplre 1hls volume provldes for Lhe hlsLorlcal subsLance of Lhls dlsserLaLlon lrom an lnslder
perspecLlve 8arry 8ubln's @be @toqeJy of tbe MlJJle ost publlshed ln 2002 alms Lo hlghllghL Lhe
complex and naLlonally speclflc lnLerrelaLlons beLween rulers (monarchlc LheocraLlc or secular
auLhorlLarlan) lslamlsLs and reformers ln each Arab sLaLe 8ubln dlspuLes Lhe ldea of a clash
beLween 'WesLern' and 'Arab' culLure lnsLead advanclng Lhe noLlon of a clash of clvlllzaLlons Laklng
place wlLhln Lhe Arab world ln Lhls he lnvalldaLes Lhe concepLlon of a parLlcularly culLural Arab
excepLlonallsm LhaL has led Lo pollLlcal sLagnaLlon Moreover he remlnds Lhe reader LhaL LgypL was
an elecLoral democracy aL a Llme when Spaln lLaly and Cermany were ruled by fasclsm and
malnLalns LhaL 'nobody Lalked abouL lslam or Lhe characLer of Arab socleLy as prevenLlng Lhe rlse of
democracy unLll more recenL developmenLs'
14

lor conLemporary perspecLlves on democraLlzaLlon ln Lhe Mlddle LasL Lhls paper
draws on such sources as Lva 8ellln's '1he 8obusLness of AuLhorlLarlanlsm ln Lhe Mlddle LasL'
publlshed ln 2004 whlch provldes lnslghL lnLo Lhe cruclal role of Lhe coerclve apparaLus of Arab

14
8ubln (2002) pp1619
[9]

dlcLaLorlal reglmes ln represslng democraLlc pracLlces 8ellln hlghllghLs LhaL Lhe facLors explalnlng
Lhe Mlddle LasL's democracy deflclL are noL unlque Lo Lhe reglon lnsLead whaL ls excepLlonal ln Lhe
Arab world ls Lhe comblnaLlon of Lhese facLors Llkewlse Marsha rlpsLeln osusney and Mlchele
enner AngrlsL's coedlLed volume on Aotbotltotloolsm lo tbe MlJJle ost (2003) emphaslzes LhaL
among Lhe sLrucLural facLors explalnlng Lhe lack of democracy such pollLlcal lnsLlLuLlons as
governmenL agencles parLles and elecLlons are parLlcularly lmporLanL Slmllarly !ason 8rownlee's
book enLlLled Aotbotltotloolsm lo oo Aqe of uemoctotlzotloo (2007) puLs forward LhaL whaL
dlfferenLlaLes unsLable reglmes from durable dlcLaLorshlps ls malnly lnsLlLuLlonal dlfferences ln Lhe
form of pollLlcal parLles whlch sLrucLure ellLe relaLlons and domlnaLe naLlonal affalrs
13
lor an
lnvesLlgaLlon of Lhe exLernal forces shaplng Arab pollLlcs @be 5ttoqqle ovet uemoctocy lo tbe MlJJle
ost publlshed ln 2010 and edlLed by naLhan 8rown and Lmad Shahln ls useful ln LhaL lL provldes an
analysls of Arab pollLlcs by experLs orlglnaLlng from Lhe Mlddle LasL lLself 1he book argues LhaL
democracy ls lncreaslngly galnlng rooLs ln Lhe Mlddle LasL yeL lLs analysls ls llmlLed ln LhaL lL merely
offers case sLudles of several Arab counLrles kaLarlna ualacoura's 'uS uemocracy romoLlon ln Lhe
Arab Mlddle LasL slnce SepLember 11' publlshed ln 2003 offers a clear analysls of Lhe role of
exLernal lnfluences ln malnLalnlng auLocracy on one hand and promoLlng democracy on Lhe oLher
llnally for a perspecLlve on Lhe prospecLs of democraLlc change ln Lhe Arab world Lhls
paper refers Lo recenL lssues of lotelqo Affolts magazlne ln parLlcular Llsa Anderson's 'uemysLlfylng
Lhe Arab Sprlng' (2011) explalns Lhe key dlfferences beLween Lhe counLrles LhaL have recenLly
experlenced revolLs such as 1unlsla LgypL Llbya and Syrla and mosL lmporLanLly hlghllghLs Lhe
plvoLal role of Lhe mlllLary ln leadlng Lhe LranslLlon perlod ln 1unlsla and LgypL as well as ln cracklng
down on Lhe opposlLlon ln Syrla and Llbya Slmllarly !ack ColdsLone's 'undersLandlng Lhe
8evoluLlons of 2011' (2011) and ulna ShehaLa's '1he lall of Lhe haraoh' (2011) analyse Lhe currenL
pollLlcal slLuaLlon ln Lhe Mlddle LasL and hlghllghL Lhe soclal and economlc problems such as hlgh
levels of unemploymenL and corrupLlon LhaL have lnsplred recenL pushes for democraLlzaLlon AL

13
8rownlee (2007) pp23
[10]

lasL Cregory Cause provldes a llmlLed amounL of answers Lo Lhe quesLlon as Lo 'Why Mlddle LasL
SLudles Mlssed Lhe Arab Sprlng' (2011) sLresslng Lhe lmporLance of Lhe effecLs of economlc
llberallzaLlon and a new klnd of panArablsm ln brlnglng abouL Lhe Arab revolLs

12Methodo|ogy of kesearch

1hls paper seeks Lo conLrlbuLe Lo Lhe aforemenLloned llLeraLure on democraLlzaLlon ln Lhe
Mlddle LasL by analyzlng Lhe lnLerplay of lnLernal as well as exLernal facLors LhaL has shaped Lhe
pollLlcal envlronmenL ln Lhe Arab world lL dlsmlsses Lhe assumpLlon LhaL democracy ls lncompaLlble
wlLh Lhe Mlddle LasL because of culLural reasons lnsLead lL argues LhaL Lhe lack of democracy ln Lhe
Arab world can be explalned by lLs sLraLeglc slLuaLlon LhaL has aLLracLed forelgn lnvolvemenL Lhe
everlasLlng presence of reglonal and lnLernaLlonal confllcLs as well as deep rooLed economlc and
soclal facLors LhaL have lnhlblLed democraLlzaLlon Cn Lhe oLher hand conLemporary forces shaplng
pollLlcal change ln Lhe Mlddle LasL are lncreaslngly emanaLlng from Lhe lnslde and are pushlng for
greaLer pollLlcal parLlclpaLlon and [usL represenLaLlon 1o lnvesLlgaLe Lhese assumpLlons a
quallLaLlve research meLhodology ls used relylng on Lhe analysls of prlmary and secondary academlc
sources 1hls ls done Lhrough LexLual and conLenL lnvesLlgaLlon of books and arLlcles publlshed by
academlcs speclallzed ln Mlddle LasL pollLlcs as well as Lhrough Lhe examlnaLlon of reporLs prlnL
and webbased of such organlsaLlons as Lhe unlLed naLlons LhaL acLlvely shape Lhe pollLlcal
envlronmenL of Lhe Mlddle LasL ln Lhls Lhe yearly Arab Puman uevelopmenL 8eporL and Lhe
lreedom Pouse crlLerla are parLlcularly relevanL ln undersLandlng Lhe lssue of democracy ln Lhe
Mlddle LasL
lor Lhe purpose of Lhls sLudy Lhe Lerms Arab Mlddle LasL and Mlddle LasL and norLh Afrlca
(MLnA) reglon are used lnLerchangeably represenLlng Lhe followlng counLrles Algerla 8ahraln
LgypL lraq !ordan kuwalL Lebanon Llbya Morocco Cman Lhe alesLlnlan AuLhorlLy CaLar Saudl
Arabla Syrla 1unlsla Lhe unlLed Arab LmlraLes and ?emen 1hls paper Lherefore uses Lhe
[11]

membershlp of Lhe Arab League as spaLlal dellmlLaLlon excludlng Lhe followlng flve counLrles LhaL
are locaLed furLher souLh on Lhe Afrlcan conLlnenL Comoros u[lbouLl MaurlLanla Somalla and
Sudan
16
1he Mlddle LasL ls undersLood as a hlsLorlcal soclal as well as geographlcal concepL lL has
wlLnessed lslamlc conquesLs and Arablc emplres Lhe Crusades and WesLern and Mongol lnvaslons lL
was under 1urklsh and Lhen Luropean domlnaLlon before becomlng home Lo a varleLy of new
naLlons ln Lhe LwenLleLh cenLury lncludlng Lebanon Syrla !ordan lraq ?emen Cman CaLar
8ahraln Lhe unlLed Arab LmlraLes and Saudl Arabla 1hls deflnlLlon of Lhe area LhaL ls belng sLudled
provldes Lhe spaLlal dellmlLaLlon of Lhls dlsserLaLlon 1emporally Lhe sLudy focuses on Lhe currenL
sLaLe and level of democraLlzaLlon ln Lhe early 21
sL
cenLury Powever explalnlng Lhls requlres golng
back ln Llme and analyzlng evenLs and developmenLs LhaL have affecLed Lhe currenL clrcumsLances
1hus Lhe paper relles on orLhodox hlsLorlcal and conLemporary analysls PlsLorlcally lL wlll Lherefore
go as far back as Lhe 1970s Lhe beglnnlng of Lhe Lhlrd wave of democraLlzaLlon LhaL saw more Lhan
flve dozen counLrles LhroughouL Lurope LaLln Amerlca Afrlca and Asla undergo some form of
democraLlc LranslLlon
17

131heoret|ca| Iramework

1he alm of Lhls sLudy ls Lo make clear Lhe lnLerplay of exLernal and lnLernal forces LhaL
explalns Lhe Mlddle LasL's democracy deflclL as well as Lhe recenL push for democraLlc change 1o a
cerLaln exLenL Lhe dlfflculLy ln explalnlng Lhe source of Lhe Arab world's democracy deflclL resldes ln
Lhe complex meanlng of Lhe Lerm democracy lLself 1herefore lL ls cruclal Lo flrsL make clear some of
Lhe baslc Lermlnology and assumpLlons of Lhls paper sLarLlng wlLh Lhe Lerms 'democracy'
'democracy deflclL' and 'democraLlzaLlon'

16
'Arab League 1he League of Arab SLaLes' hLLp//wwwarabde/arablnfo/leaguehLm !uly 22 2011 'World
8ank ueflnlLlon MLnA'
hLLp//webworldbankorg/W8Sl1L/Lx1L8nAL/CCun18lLS/MLnALx1/0menuk247619pagek146748pl
k146812LheSlLek23629900hLml !uly 4 2011

17
PunLlngLon (1991b) pp1214
[12]

lor Lhe purpose of Lhls paper llberal democracy ls deflned as a Lype of reglme LhaL secures
personal freedom and prlvaLe properLy and governs accordlng Lo Lhe rule of law Lhrough
represenLaLlve governmenL responslve Lo Lhe people ln regular elecLlons
18
1here ls however wlde
dlsagreemenL among scholars of lnLernaLlonal relaLlons on Lhe currenL deflnlLlon of Lhe Lerm
democracy
19
ayne argues LhaL Lhe word democracy has become lndeflnable because lL has Loo
many meanlngs
20
Whereas Wllllamson advocaLes Lhe lmporLance of laLo's 8epubllc for anyone
seeklng Lo undersLand Lhe endurlng challenges faclng democraLlc socleLles
21
ln Lhe words of Alaln
1ouralne democracy 'does noL reduce human belngs Lo Lhe sLaLus of mere clLlzens' buL 'recognlzes
Lhem as free lndlvlduals who also belong Lo economlc or culLural collecLlvlLles'
22
An accuraLe
lnvesLlgaLlon of Lhe debaLe surroundlng Lhe Lerm democracy would of course requlre a masslve
volume ln Lhe conLexL of Lhls sLudy however one can explore Lhe Lerm's popular concepLlons ln
order Lo seL Lhe scene for a proper analysls of Lhe Mlddle LasL's democracy deflclL uesplLe Lhe
varleLy of perLlnenL deflnlLlons regardlng Lhe Lerm democracy Lhe mosL slgnlflcanL aspecL for Lhls
lnvesLlgaLlon remalns LhaL lL ls a form of pollLlcal sysLem ln whlch Lhe ordlnary clLlzen ls endowed
wlLh Lhe rlghL Lo lnfluence Lhe course of hls governmenL Lhrough Lhe process of free elecLlons uL
brlefly democracy ls a sysLem ln whlch lncumbenLs lose elecLlons and leave offlce when Lhe rules
so dlcLaLe'
23
lL ls a form of governmenL 'ln whlch pollLlcal freedom ls guaranLeed and ln whlch
members of Lhe democracy have equal effecLlve lnpuL lnLo Lhe maklng of blndlng collecLlve
declslons lL Lhereby comblnes Lhe noLlons of governmenL by Lhe people" and governmenL for
Lhe people"'
24
ln oLher words democracy ls a pollLlcal sysLem whose leglLlmacy sLems from Lhe
prlnclple of popular soverelgnLy 1hls belng LhaL ordlnary clLlzens have Lhe rlghL Lo govern
Lhemselves

18
'Llberal uemocracy and lLs LlmlLs' hLLp//wwwcolgaLeedu/porLaldaLa/lmagegallerywww/2ead3faf9834
4baab99b2ca2ff42a930/lmageCallery/Lhemepdf !uly 22 2011
19
uahl eL al (2003) pp 133 1ouralne (1997)
20
ayne (2009) p 609
21
Wllllamson (2008)
22
1ouralne (1997) p16
23
rzeworskl eL al (2000) p34
24
8ekkers (2007) pp 4142
[13]

Clven Lhls deflnlLlon of democracy Lhe noLlon of democracy deflclL musL be vlewed ln Lerms
of a quesLlon of leglLlmacy LeglLlmacy ls deflned as Lhe rlghL Lo govern based on publlc consenL
23
ln
oLher words Lhe noLlon of democracy deflclL lmplles Lhe excluslon of clLlzens from Lhe pollLlcal
process lL enLalls a process of declslon maklng from above LhaL does noL represenL Lhe lnLeresLs of
Lhe people and flnally lL suggesLs llmlLed accounLablllLy of governmenL leaders 1hus a democracy
deflclL lnslnuaLes a form of governmenL LhaL does noL provlde for a mlnlmum of delegaLlon and a
maxlmum of lnformaLlon and Lransparency
ollLlcal democraLlzaLlon on Lhe oLher hand enLalls 'an expanslon of pollLlcal parLlclpaLlon ln
such a way as Lo provlde clLlzens wlLh a degree of real and meanlngful collecLlve conLrol over publlc
pollcy'
26
lL ls also lmporLanL Lo dlsLlngulsh Lhls noLlon of democraLlzaLlon from LhaL of pollLlcal
llberallzaLlon ollLlcal llberallzaLlon ln facL lnvolves 'Lhe expanslon of publlc space Lhrough Lhe
recognlLlon and proLecLlon of clvll and pollLlcal llberLles parLlcularly Lhose bearlng upon Lhe ablllLy of
clLlzens Lo engage ln free pollLlcal dlscourse and Lo freely organlze ln pursulL of common lnLeresLs'
27

1he dlsLlncLlon ls lmporLanL glven LhaL elemenLs of one can exlsL lndependenLly of Lhe oLher ollLlcal
represslon can be relaxed wlLhouL slmulLaneously lncreaslng pollLlcal parLlclpaLlon ln facL far from
accompanylng democraLlzaLlon such meLhods of pollLlcal llberallzaLlon can be used Lo avold genulne
democraLlc reform Llkewlse governmenLs can resLrlcL pollLlcal freedom whllsL clalmlng wldespread
popular parLlclpaLlon
28
ollLlcal freedom however ls essenLlal Lo a funcLlonlng democracy WlLhouL
pollLlcal llberLy clLlzens are unable Lo effecLlvely organlze and Lake parL ln Lhe declslon maklng
process Moreover elecLlons are vlewed as a cruclal parL of a democraLlc sysLem Powever Lhe
exlsLence of elecLlons musL noL be confused wlLh Lhe subsLance of democraLlc pollLlcs LlecLlons
conducLed under 'hlghly dlsLorLlonal sysLems of elecLoral represenLaLlon or amldsL wldespread
elecLoral fraud may noL ln facL provlde clLlzens wlLh any effecLlve say ln pollLlcal declslon maklng'
29


23
Colcaud (2002) p 10
26
8rynen korany and noble eds (1993) p3
27
lbld p 3
28
lbld p4
29
lbld p4
[14]


ln slghL of currenL democraLlc sLlrrlngs ln Lhe Mlddle LasL Lhere has been an lncrease ln
academlc lnLeresL ln Lhe processes and prospecLs of democraLlc LranslLlon 1hls has become
apparenL ln Lhe upsurge of publlcaLlons and dlscusslons on Lhe sub[ecL ln Lhls whlle parLlal case
sLudles abound Lhere have been relaLlvely few aLLempLs Lo ldenLlfy Lhe key lssues arlslng from Lhe
sLudy of pollLlcal change ln Lhe Arab world 1hls pro[ecL ls an aLLempL Lo address Lhls deflclency by
paylng parLlcular aLLenLlon Lo Lhe lnLerplay of lnLernaLlonal and domesLlc forces ln shaplng Lhe
course of pollLlcal change ln Lhe Mlddle LasL
1he followlng analysls of Lhe Mlddle LasL's democracy deflclL resLs on Lhe assumpLlon LhaL
sLaLes and reglmes are noL lsolaLed enLlLles buL LhaL Lhey exlsL ln an lnLernaLlonal sysLem LhaL can
boLh undermlne as well as supporL pollLlcal change Moreover Lhe conLemporary lnLernaLlonal
sysLem ls shaped by Lhe process of globallzaLlon LhaL creaLes a dlffuslon of democraLlc values ralslng
Lhe prospecLs of reglme LranslLlon whereby pollLlcal evenLs ln one counLry Lrlgger effecLs across
lnLernaLlonal borders 1hus explanaLlons of domesLlc pollLlcal dynamlcs requlre reference Lo forces
emanaLlng from an exLernal envlronmenL neverLheless desplLe Lhe growlng lnfluence of exLernal
forces Lhelr ablllLy Lo manlpulaLe reglmes of soverelgn sLaLes ls llmlLed 1herefore Lhe paper
suggesLs LhaL lL ls lmposslble Lo analyse Lhe pollLlcal slLuaLlon ln Lhe Mlddle LasL ln lsolaLlon from
domesLlc acLors lnsLlLuLlons and evenLs ln facL alLhough reglme lncumbenLs and Lhelr domesLlc
pollLlcal opponenLs may be lnfluenced by exLernal forces pollLlcal developmenLs ln Lhe sLruggle for
sLaLe power are largely Lo be explalned ln Lerms of domesLlc forces and calculaLlons ln Lhe case of
Lhe Mlddle LasL Lhls has become parLlcularly apparenL durlng Lhls year's Arab revolLs LhaL have
occurred ln Lhe name of democracy and were Lrlggered by domesLlc acLors
ln order Lo address Lhe quesLlon perLalnlng Lo Lhe forces shaplng Lhe currenL sLaLe and level
of democraLlzaLlon ln Lhe Mlddle LasL Lhls paper ls dlvlded lnLo Lhree secLlons 1he flrsL secLlon
explores Lhe exLernal forces LhaL have played a ma[or role ln sLalllng as well as advanclng
democraLlzaLlon ln Lhe reglon ln parLlcular lL looks aL uS forelgn pollcy whlch has shaped Lhe
[15]

conLemporary pollLlcal envlronmenL ln Lhe Arab world 1he second secLlon analyses Lhe domesLlc
forces LhaL explaln Lhe reglon's reslsLance Lo democracy as well as Lhose lnLernal dynamlcs LhaL
have been pushlng Lowards democraLlzaLlon llnally Lhe Lhlrd secLlon looks aL recenL developmenLs
ln Lhe Mlddle LasL ln an aLLempL Lo examlne Lhe prospecLs for democraLlc LranslLlon and Lhe changes
LhaL have occurred LhroughouL Lhe reglon 1he paper concludes LhaL any examlnaLlon of democracy
ln Lhe Mlddle LasL musL Lake lnLo accounL Lhe complexlLy of Lhls pollLlcal geography lnLernaLlonal
and domesLlc lnLeracLlon of forces as well as Lhe prospecLs and challenges LhaL face Lhe progress of
democraLlzaLlon ln Lhe reglon

















[16]

2 terna| Inf|uences and M|dd|e ast Democrat|zat|on

21Stab|||ty verses Democracy

1hls chapLer seLs ouL Lo explore Lhe exLernal forces LhaL have shaped Lhe democracy deflclL
ln Lhe Mlddle LasL ln Lhls Lhe focus ls on uS forelgn pollcy Lowards Lhe reglon and Lhe ways ln whlch
lL has lnhlblLed pollLlcal change uS pollcy has played a ma[or role ln shaplng Lhe conLemporary
pollLlcal envlronmenL of Lhe Arab world ln parLlcular because of Lhe uS' hlsLorlcal lnvolvemenL ln
Lhe Arablsraell peace process and Lhe arLlculaLlon of Lhe global War on 1error ln 2001 LhaL cenLred
on a 'forward sLraLegy of freedom' ln Lhe Mlddle LasL
30
1hls lnvolvemenL LranslaLes lnLo Lhe facL LhaL
for many years Lhe reglon has recelved Lhe bulk of uS bllaLeral forelgn ald ln 2008 Lhe share of uS
forelgn asslsLance consumed by Lhe Mlddle LasL amounLed Lo 34
31
Moreover ouL of Lhe slx
prlmary reclplenLs of uS forelgn ald four counLrles are locaLed ln Lhe Mlddle LasL lsrael LgypL
!ordan and lraq
32
Cn Lhe oLher hand Lhls analysls also shows LhaL Lo a cerLaln exLenL uS pollcles
have provoked lncreased pollLlcal awareness ln Arab counLrles Slmllarly Lhe chapLer demonsLraLes
LhaL globallzaLlon as an exLernal force has allowed for Lhe dlffuslon of democraLlc values ln Lhe Arab
world

ConLemporary WesLern and especlally uS aLLlLudes Loward Arab democraLlzaLlon and
lnLernaLlonal supporL for auLhorlLarlan reglmes are a core lmpedlmenL Lo democraLlzaLlon ln Lhls
WesLern sLraLegy ln Lhe Mlddle LasL has helped malnLaln Lhe sLablllLy of auLhorlLarlan reglmes by
provldlng maLerlal and leglLlmacy resources ln facL exLernal acLors have long favoured pollcles of
sLablllLy over reglme change glven LhaL regardless of Lhe characLer of Lhe opposlLlon pollLlcal

30
'8emarks by resldenL Ceorge W 8ush' hLLp//wwwnedorg/georgewbush/remarksbypresldenLgeorge
wbushaLLhe20Lhannlversary 10 !une 2011
31
Congresslonal 8esearch Servlce (2009) 'lorelgn Ald An lnLroducLory Cvervlew of uS rograms and ollcy'
hLLp//fpcsLaLegov/documenLs/organlzaLlon/124970pdf p 13 !uly 22 2011
32
lbld p 13 !uly 22 2011
[17]

change ls always accompanled by a perlod of Lurmoll and lnsecurlLy 1hls could LhreaLen WesLern
economlc and securlLy lnLeresLs by a dlsrupLlon of energy supplles lesser collaboraLlon ln Lhe flghL
agalnsL Lerrorlsm and mlgraLlon conLrol Moreover Lhe fear of Lhe rule of lslamlsL groups
undersLood as 'parLles and pollLlcal organlzaLlons LhaL promoLe soclal and pollLlcal reform ln
accordance wlLh lslamlc rellglous prlnclples LhaL may lead Lhem Lo oppose uS or Lu forelgn pollcy'
33

has long provlded a raLlonale for supporLlng auLhorlLarlan reglmes

ln Lhelr exLenslve sLudy of Mlddle LasL auLhorlLarlanlsm Sean ?om and Mohammad Al
Momanl use Lhe case sLudy of !ordan Lo explore Lhe relaLlonshlp beLween lnLernaLlonal supporL and
domesLlc reglme sLablllLy 1hey flnd LhaL Lhe cessaLlon of Lhe democraLlc reform program lnlLlaLed ln
!ordan afLer Lhe 1989 flnanclal crlsls ls dlrecLly llnked Lo mounLlng levels of forelgn asslsLance
provlded by Lhe uS and lLs allles
34
uurlng Lhe 1990s a wave of clvlc unresL swepL across !ordan
LhreaLenlng Lhe auLhorlLy of Lhe rullng monarchy Lhrough growlng pollLlcal opposlLlon lor Lhe uS
and lLs allles 'Lhe prospecL of execuLlve power Lurnover from Lhe conservaLlve sLaLe apparaLus Lo a
poLenLlally hosLlle lslamlsL orlenLed rullng alLernaLlve ran counLer Lo long Lerm sLraLeglc lnLeresLs'
33

ln facL !ordan was Lo play a cruclal role ln Amerlcan pollLlcal endeavors across Lhe Mlddle LasL
parLlcularly wlLh regard Lo Lhe Arablsraell confllcL When Lhe monarchy slgned Lhe peace LreaLy wlLh
lsrael ln 1994 Lhe uS poured subsLanLlal amounLs of economlc ald and securlLy asslsLance lnLo
!ordan 1hus reglme sLablllLy was upheld ln order Lo malnLaln Lhe peace accords wlLh lsrael aL Lhe
expense of any democraLlc agenda ln !ordan especlally because ma[or democraLlc groups ln Lhe
klngdom volced Lhelr opposlLlon Lo Lhe Lruce lor Lhe monarchy exLernal asslsLance relnforced lLs
flscal capablllLy and securlLy apparaLus enabllng Lhe reglme Lo consLraln Lhe opposlLlon wlLhouL
fearlng lnLernaLlonal repercusslons Slnce 2001 !ordan's collaboraLlon wlLh WashlngLon's War on

33
Sharp (2006) Summary
34
?om AlMomanl (2008) p40
33
lbld pp4041
[18]

1error furLher lncreased Lhe amounL of economlc and mlllLary supporL Lo Lhe counLry and weakened
prospecLs for change
36

1he !ordanlan case alone cannoL provlde for a general causal explanaLlon of Lhe democracy
deflclL ln Lhe MLnA Powever lL ls helpful ln LhaL lL demonsLraLes Lhe exLenL Lo whlch forelgn forces
play a role ln shaplng Lhe domesLlc balance of power beLween Lhe rullng reglme and Lhe opposlLlon
ln Arab sLaLes ln facL exLernal economlc and mlllLary asslsLance can sLrengLhen Lhe power of rullng
ellLes and ensure Lhe conLlnulLy of Lhe auLocraLlc sysLem

rlor Lo SepLember 11 2001 uS pollcy Lowards Lhe Mlddle LasL vlewed auLhorlLarlan reglmes
as a bulwark agalnsL lslamlsL opposlLlon movemenLs LhaL were spreadlng durlng Lhe 1990s 8rown
and Shahln argue LhaL even unfrlendly represslve esLabllshmenLs for lnsLance Syrla's Llbya's and
lraq's were favoured by Lhe uS Lo lslamlsL alLernaLlves
37
neverLheless democraLlzaLlon was noL
compleLely lgnored uurlng Lhe Ceorge P W 8ush admlnlsLraLlon small scale Arab world democracy
ald programs were launched 1hey were deslgned Lo encourage accounLablllLy good governance and
Lhe rule of law 1he underlylng prlnclple of Lhese pro[ecLs was LhaL Lhey would supporL Lhe markeL
based economlc modernlzaLlon pollcles LhaL aL Lhe Llme were Lhe Lop of Lhe uS' agenda ln Lhe
Mlddle LasL 1he CllnLon's admlnlsLraLlon's emphasls on democracy promoLlon laLer gave rlse Lo
varlous larger pro[ecLs ln LgypL Lhe WesL 8ank and Caza drawlng on funds from Lhe masslve share
of flnanclal ald allocaLed by Lhe uS Lo Lhese places 1hese longLerm pro[ecLs almed Lo develop
parllamenL Lhe courL sysLem and nCCs 1hey reflecLed Lhe general sense LhaL democracy promoLlon
would weaken lslamlc fundamenLallsm and advance economlc llberallzaLlon noneLheless Lhese
pro[ecLs remalned largely superflclal avoldlng conLroverslal lssues such as pollLlcal lslam LhaL could
be percelved as an lnLruslon lnLo domesLlc pollLlcs and upseL frlendly reglmes

36
Congresslonal 8esearch Servlce (2009) 'lorelgn Ald An lnLroducLory Cvervlew of uS rograms and ollcy'
hLLp//fpcsLaLegov/documenLs/organlzaLlon/124970pdf pp 1213 !uly 22 2011
37
8rown Shahln (2009)p18
[19]

aradoxlcally counLrles recelvlng lmmense amounLs of uS ald have succeeded ln dlssuadlng
democraLlzaLlon lnlLlaLlves Slnce 1973 economlc and developmenL asslsLance Lo LgypL Lhrough Lhe
uS Agency for lnLernaLlonal uevelopmenL (uSAlu) amounLs Lo over $28 bllllon lL ls Lhe largesL uS
developmenL asslsLance program ln Lhe Mlddle LasL AddlLlonally uS mlllLary ald Lo LgypL LoLals over
$13 bllllon annually slnce Lhe wake of Lhe LgypLlanlsraell peace LreaLy ln 1979
38
Powever
accordlng Lo Lhe Lerms of Lhe bllaLeral ald relaLlonshlp Lhe LgypLlan reglme had Lhe rlghL Lo veLo all
democracy promoLlon pro[ecLs puLLlng democracy lnlLlaLlves dlrecLly under Lhe conLrol of former
LgypLlan presldenL Posnl Mubarak Accordlng Lo 8rown and Shahln democracy and human rlghLs
lssues were never placed on Lhe agendas of meeLlngs wlLh Arab leaders prlor Lo SepLember 11
39

lormer dlrecLor of pollcy plannlng aL Lhe uS ueparLmenL of SLaLe 8lchard Paass asserLed LhaL
prevlous admlnlsLraLlons have noL aLLrlbuLed sufflclenL prlorlLy Lo democraLlzaLlon and declared
LhaL

Lhe unlLed SLaLes has avolded scruLlnlzlng Lhe lnLernal worklngs of counLrles ln Lhe lnLeresL
of ensurlng a sLeady flow of oll conLalnlng SovleL lraql and lranlan expanslonlsm
addresslng lssues relaLed Lo Lhe Arablsraell confllcL reslsLlng communlsm ln LasL Asla or
securlng baslng rlghLs for Lhe uS mlllLary yleldlng Lo whaL mlghL be called a democraLlc
excepLlon" ln parLs of Lhe Musllm world Lhe unlLed SLaLes has mlssed an opporLunlLy Lo
help Lhese counLrles adapL Lo Lhe sLresses of a globallzlng world
40


ln Lhls he clalmed LhaL conLlnulng Lo make Lhls excepLlon ln Lhe Arab world was no longer ln
Lhe lnLeresL of Lhe uS and LhaL fuLure pollcles 'wlll be more acLlvely engaged ln supporLlng
democraLlc Lrends ln Lhe Musllm world Lhan ever before'
41
1hus Lo a cerLaln exLenL Lhe aLLacks of
9/11 Lrlggered a reorlenLaLlon of Mlddle LasL pollcy conslgnlng democracy promoLlon Lo Lhe

38
'8ackground noLe LgypL' hLLp//wwwsLaLegov/r/pa/el/bgn/3309hLm 10 May 2011
39
8rown Shahln (2009) p20
40
Paass (2003) p142
41
lbld p142
[20]

forefronL of Lhe debaLe surroundlng Lhe flghL agalnsL global Lerrorlsm 8y Lhe same Loken owell
announced Lhe creaLlon of Lhe uSMlddle LasL arLnershlp lnlLlaLlve (MLl) ln 2002 LhaL would
provlde Amerlcan supporL for varlous democracy promoLlon programs encouraglng clvll socleLy and
pollLlcal parLlclpaLlon 1hen ln november 2003 8ush announced a 'new pollcy' Loward Lhe Mlddle
LasL 'a forward sLraLegy of freedom'
42
1hls new pollcy lncluded lnlLlaLlves such as Lhe MLl and Lhe
8roader Mlddle LasL and norLh Afrlca arLnershlp lnlLlaLlve (8MLnA) announced ln !une 2004 aL Lhe
C8 SummlL boLh almlng Lo promoLe reform ln Lhe pollLlcal soclal culLural and economlc sphere of
Arab naLlons LfforLs of democracy promoLlon were also made on Lhe level of publlc dlplomacy
encouraglng bllaLeral meeLlngs beLween uS offlclals and Lhelr Arab counLerparLs lormer uS
SecreLary of SLaLe Condoleezza 8lce held a speech aL Lhe Amerlcan unlverslLy of Calro ln !une 2003
declarlng LhaL 'for 60 years Lhe unlLed SLaLes pursued sLablllLy aL Lhe expense of democracy ln Lhe
Mlddle LasL and we achleved nelLher'
43
1he mosL drasLlc expresslon of Lhe 8ush admlnlsLraLlon's
lnLervenLlonlsL forelgn pollcy was Lhe mlllLary lnvaslon and subsequenL occupaLlon of lraq ln 2003
1he core raLlonale for Lhe war ln lraq was preempLlve selfdefence agalnsL presumed weapons of
mass desLrucLlon and global Lerrorlsm ?eL democraLlzaLlon was also parL of Lhe rheLorlc
surroundlng Lhe lnvaslon glven LhaL a democraLlc lraq was percelved as an example LhaL would
promoLe reform across Lhe enLlre reglon
44

Powever alLhough Lhe admlnlsLraLlon's lnlLlaLlves were halled as groundbreaklng Lhey were
very llLLle dlfferenL from Lhose puL forward by Lhe CllnLon admlnlsLraLlon and dld noL provlde a
ma[or momenLum for pollLlcal change ln facL ualacoura argues LhaL MLl pro[ecLs resemble Lhose
carrled ouL by uSAlu especlally because uSAlu ls responslble for Lhe lmplemenLaLlon of mosL of Lhe
MLl programs
43
1here are no lndlcaLlons LhaL MLl's approach has profoundly alLered uS
democraLlzaLlon sLraLegy ln Lhe Mlddle LasL also because Lhe lnlLlaLlve only recelves llmlLed funds

42
'8emarks by resldenL Ceorge W 8ush' hLLp//wwwnedorg/georgewbush/remarksbypresldenLgeorge
wbushaLLhe20Lhannlversary 10 !une 2011
43
'8lce Calls for Mlddle LasL uemocracy'(2003) hLLp//newsbbccouk/2/hl/4109902sLm 10 !une 2011
44
ualacoura (2003) p963
43
lbld p 966
[21]

1he 8rooklngs lnsLlLuLlon noLed ln 2004 LhaL MLl had recelved a LoLal of $264 mllllon of whlch lL
had spenL [usL over $103 mllllon
46
ln Lhls lL ls dwarfed by uS expendlLure ln lraq esLlmaLed aL $806
bllllon and Lhe war on Lerror generally whlch runs lnLo more Lhan one Lrllllon dollars
47
8esldes
MLl's lack of a coherenL sLraLegy for pursulng reform lnlLlaLlves and meeLlng lLs ob[ecLlves has led
Lo a general fallure of galnlng solld uS governmenL supporL for lLs programs
48
SubsequenLly Lhls
lmpedes Lhe program's ablllLy Lo have a subsLanLlal lmpacL on deeply lngralned soclal lssues and
uncooperaLlve reglmes
1he lnLervenLlon ln lraq has Lhus far noL produced apparenL resulLs on Lhe democracy fronL
ln slghL of deep eLhnlc cleavages dlvldlng lraql socleLy and Lhelr vlolenL expresslon LhaL has caused
hundreds of Lhousands clvlllan casualLles prospecLs for a sLable democracy ln lraq elghL years afLer
Lhe lnvaslon remaln exLremely doubLful AlLhough Lhe counLry no longer suffers under
auLhorlLarlan rule Lhe posLlnvaslon perlod has been much more dlfflculL Lhan prevlously anLlclpaLed
and Lhe war has lnflamed anLlAmerlcan senLlmenLs across Lhe reglon 'sLrengLhenlng Lhe hand of
lslamlc radlcals and compllcaLlng Lhe llfe of proWesLern Arab democraLs'
49

1he unlLed SLaLes and Lurope asserL LhaL pushlng for democracy ln Lhe Mlddle LasL ls parL of
a new securlLy lmperaLlve and have lnLroduced a varleLy of proreform pollcles buL WesLern
governmenLs remaln lnapL aL puLLlng Lhls commlLmenL lnLo pracLlce Lhrough efflclenL pollcles






46
'1he Mlddle LasL arLnershlp lnlLlaLlve'
hLLp//wwwbrooklngsedu/papers/2004/1129mlddleeasL_wlLLesaspx 10 !une 2011
47
8elasco (2011) p1
48
'uemocracy romoLlon under Cbama Lessons lrom Lhe Mlddle LasL arLnershlp lnlLlaLlve' (2009)
hLLp//wwwbrooklngsedu//medla/llles/rc/papers/2009/03_democracy_promoLlon_wlLLes/03_democracy_
promoLlon_wlLLespdf !uly 22 2011 and 'A 8eLLer Way Lo SupporL Mlddle LasL 8eform'(2003)
hLLp//carnegleendowmenLorg/flles/833caroLhersllnALwebpdf !uly 22 2011
49
CaroLhers CLLaway (2003) p8
[22]

22Democrat|c D|ffus|on

1o a cerLaln exLenL however exLernal efforLs of democraLlzaLlon such as Lhose pursued by
Lhe unlLed SLaLes durlng Lhe 8ush admlnlsLraLlon have Lrlggered a debaLe across Lhe Arab world
abouL Lhe need for pollLlcal change lndeed lL has been argued LhaL Lhe 8ush admlnlsLraLlon's publlc
democracy promoLlon rheLorlc has 'shaken Lhe Arab world ouL of lLs apaLhy and forced reform on
Lhe agenda ln an unprecedenLed way' even Lhough Lhls debaLe ls accompanled by crlLlclsm of uS
pollcles ln Lhe reglon
30
AnalysLs argue LhaL uS emphasls on reform has made lL posslble for
opposlLlon movemenLs ln Lhe reglon Lo acL more boldly 1he deslrablllLy of pollLlcal change ls also
belng dlscussed LhroughouL Lhe Arab medla Lspeclally Arab saLelllLe Lelevlslon channels such as Al
Iozeeto and Al Atoblyo have deflned democraLlc reform as a core Arab lssue Al Iozeeto soughL Lo
glve volce Lo a 'deep Arab frusLraLlon wlLh Lhe percelved fallures of Arab reglmes ln 1999 alone
almosL a dozen Al Iozeeto Lalk shows crlLlclzed Lhe absence of democracy ln Lhe Arab world'
31
ln
Lhls Arab medla Loday represenLs a powerful force encouraglng a plurallsLlc pollLlcal culLure
Slmllarly debaLes ln Lhe Mlddle LasL abouL pollLlcal reform have 'mulLlplled and Laken on a freer
franker characLer' even lf Lhere ls sLlll more Lalk abouL Lhe lmperaLlve for democracy Lhan acLlon Lo
brlng lL abouL
32
1he debaLe on democracy has also prompLed an examlnaLlon of lslamlsL movemenLs
and Lhelr sLandpolnL concernlng democraLlc reform 8espondlng Lo Lhe debaLe lnlLlaLed by uS
forelgn pollcy Lhe LgypLlan Musllm 8roLherhood revealed lLs own pollLlcal reform lnlLlaLlve ln March
2004 1hey demanded democraLlc freedoms Lhe llmlLaLlon of Lhe sweeplng powers of Lhe presldenL
and Lhe suspenslon of Lhe emergency law
33

ln May 2002 Lhe publlcaLlon of Lhe unlLed naLlons uevelopmenL rogram's Atob nomoo
uevelopmeot kepott enhanced Lhe leglLlmacy of reform as a presslng panArab lssue 1he reporL
condemned Lhe deflclLs of educaLlon good governance freedom and women's empowermenL and

30
ualacoura (2003) p 967
31
Lynch (2004) pp 23
32
CaroLhers CLLaway (2003) p8
33
Lssam Lluln (2004)
[23]

advanced pollLlcal and economlc reform as cruclal Lo solvlng Lhe mulLlple dlfflculLles faclng Lhe
Mlddle LasL
34
1he facL LhaL lL was drafLed by wellrespecLed Arabs and also had Lhe experLlse of Lhe
unlLed naLlons Lo supporL lL conLrlbuLed Lo Lhe auLhorlLy of Lhe reporL leadlng Arab governmenLs
Lo esLabllsh a commlLLee ln Lhe Arab League ln order Lo sLudy lLs recommendaLlons
LxLernal pressures have pushed cerLaln Arab reglmes Lo lnlLlaLe democraLlc reform albelL ln
a llmlLed and hlghly conLrolled way 8esLrlcLed pollLlcal openlngs have been lnLroduced ln 8ahraln
CaLar kuwalL ?emen Saudl Arabla LgypL !ordan Algerla and Morocco aL dlfferenL Llmes and Lo
varlous degrees advanclng clvll rlghLs and allowlng for more pollLlcal parLlclpaLlon mosLly Lhrough
elecLlons ln CaLar for lnsLance clLlzens voLed for a consLlLuLlon ln 2003 LhaL gave rlse Lo Lhe
esLabllshmenL of a 43 member parllamenL and ln Saudl Arabla Lhe flrsL munlclpal elecLlons ln more
Lhan 40 years were held ln 2003 Llkewlse ln 2003 LgypL held lLs flrsL ever presldenLlal elecLlons and
kuwalL lnLroduced women's suffrage Pereln alLhough halled by Lhe WesL democraLlzaLlon efforLs
have largely been explolLed by Arab governmenLs LlecLlons have allowed reglmes Lo open pollLlcal
space wlLhouL changlng Lhe sLaLus quo and have ulLlmaLely ensured Lhe power of rullng ellLes
Powever Lhese llmlLed pollLlcal reforms have offered Mlddle LasLern socleLles a gllmpse of whaL
democraLlc pollLlcs mlghL look llke and have encouraged awareness ln clvll socleLy of Lhe quesLlon of
pollLlcal change
ln Lurn Mlddle LasLern socleLy's awareness of Lhe need for pollLlcal change ls belng
ampllfled by Lhe wlder effecLs of globallzaLlon CloballzaLlon has conLrlbuLed Lo a shlfL from Lrlballsm
Lo clLlzenshlp as Lhe deflnlng characLerlsLlc of Lhe pollLlcal order ln Lhe Mlddle LasL lL has glven rlse
Lo gender pollLlcs challenglng LradlLlonal concepLlons of Lhe role of women ln Arab socleLy LfforLs
Lo empower women are bearlng frulLs for lnsLance ln Saudl Arabla where women now 'own more
Lhan 20000 companles and esLabllshmenLs'
33
lurLher Lhe parLlclpaLlon of women as pollLlcal
candldaLes such as ln kuwalL's 2006 parllamenLary elecLlons has lnsplred women ln nelghbourlng

34
'unu 8eleases Lhe llrsL Arab Puman uevelopmenL 8eporL'(2002) hLLp//wwwarab
hdrorg/publlcaLlons/conLenLs/2002/execsum02epdf 27 !une 2011
33
MlnlsLry of lorelgn Affalrs Saudl Arabla (2007) p 64
[24]

counLrles generaLlng a change of aLLlLude LhaL ls llkely 'Lo sLrengLhen demands from clvll socleLy for
a greaLer pollLlcal volce for women'
36
Moreover new soclal medla Lools such as lacebook 1wlLLer
Lhe wlder blogosphere and lnnovaLlons ln communlcaLlon Lechnologles have provlded clLlzens wlLh
new vehlcles Lo parLlclpaLe ln lnLernaLlonal debaLes and moblllze 1he reglon's saLelllLebased medla
has also been lnvolved ln creaLlng a pollLlcal culLure of engagemenL and awareness 1elevlslon
sLaLlons such as Al!azeera and AlArablya have conLrlbuLed Lo Lhe creaLlon of a more 'panArab
culLural space ln whlch developmenLs ln one counLry have a more lmmedlaLe and profound
lnfluence on ouLcomes elsewhere ln Lhe reglon'
37
1he effecLs of globallzaLlon Lhrough Lhe growLh ln
lnformaLlon and communlcaLlons Lechnologles and ln parLlcular lnLerneL access has lncreaslngly
exposed Lhe Mlddle LasL's young generaLlon Lo norms and values whlch are prone Lo resulL ln
greaLer pollLlcal awareness 1hls Lype of exposure has fosLered a beLLer undersLandlng among Arab
socleLy of pollLlcal and soclal pracLlces on an lnLernaLlonal level 1hus growlng frusLraLlon wlLh
auLocraLlc sysLems has Lhe poLenLlal of LranslaLlng lnLo domesLlc pollLlcal acLlvlsm ln favour of
democraLlzaLlon

ln Lhls exLernal lnfluences have provlded flnanclal and leglLlmacy resources LhaL have
supporLed auLocraLlc reglmes lnhlblLlng pollLlcal change ?eL recenL lnLernaLlonal pressures for
democraLlzaLlon comblned wlLh Lhe wlde reachlng effecLs of globallzaLlon have lncreased pollLlcal
awareness LhroughouL Lhe Mlddle LasL provldlng a momenLum for change Pavlng explored Lhe
lnLernaLlonal envlronmenL ln whlch Arab reglmes operaLe Lhls paper Lurns Lo Lhe analysls of Lhe
speclflc domesLlc pollLlcs LhaL have resLralned democraLlzaLlon as well as Lhose lnLernal forces LhaL
have recenLly pushed Lowards lL



36
LhLeshaml and WrlghL (2007) p 917
37
noland (2003) pp 2427
[25]

3 Domest|c Iorces and the Strugg|e for Democracy

311he kes|||ence of Author|tar|an|sm
1he prlmary dependanL varlable for scholars of Mlddle LasLern pollLlcs has long been
auLhorlLarlanlsm Powever ln slghL of conLemporary anLlauLhorlLarlan uprlslngs sweeplng across
Lhe Mlddle LasL pollLlcal sclenLlsLs are forced Lo reLhlnk Lhelr endeavour LgypL and 1unlsla have
experlenced peaceful pollLlcal revoluLlons whlch wlll lead Lo ma[or change ?emen and Syrla are
represslng Lhelr populaLlons forcefully Llbya ls Lorn beLween lnLernaLlonal war and clvll war and
oLhers llke Saudl Arabla and 8ahraln are suffocaLlng Lhe democracy movemenL WhllsL experlmenLs
ln llberallzaLlon even democraLlzaLlon are occurrlng ln several counLrles oLhers are closlng up 1he
pollLlcal slLuaLlon ln Lhe reglon ls now far Loo mulLlfaceLed Lo be explalned by a few selecLed
Lheorles 1hus lL ls cruclal Lo acknowledge Lhe slgnlflcanL role of Lhe lnLerplay beLween a varleLy of
exLernal and lnLernal forces LhaL ls shaplng Lhe pollLlcs of Lhe reglon 1hls chapLer explores Lhe soclal
economlc and pollLlcal domesLlc forces LhaL have lmpeded democraLlc progress ln Arab counLrles as
well as Lhose LhaL are currenLly demandlng LransparenL and [usL governmenL
lundamenLally democracy ls shaped by Lhe hlsLorlcal and culLural conLexL ouL of whlch lL arlses
buL Lhe use of Lhe pollLlcal culLure concepL ln aLLempLlng Lo explaln Lhe democracy deflclL ln Lhe
Mlddle LasL ls conLroverslal because of lLs frequenL abuse 1he reglon has been sub[ecLed Lo blaLanL
overgenerallzaLlons and reducLlonlsL sLereoLyplng 1hls ls Lhe case for lnsLance ln aLal's well known
plece @be Atob MloJ whlch asserLs LhaL 'Lhe Arabs are Lhe leasL wllllng of naLlons Lo subordlnaLe
Lhemselves Lo each oLher as Lhey are rude proud amblLlous and eager Lo be Lhe leader'
38

Slmllarly kedourle descrlbes Arab socleLy as accusLomed Lo 'auLocracy and passlve obedlence and
Lherefore lncapable of upholdlng Lhe democraLlc culLure necessary for clvll socleLy'
39
PunLlngLon's
response ls LhaL Lhe Arab and lslamlc world more broadly lacks Lhe core pollLlcal values LhaL

38
aLal (1973) p 20
39
kedourle (1992) p103
[26]

Lrlggered Lhe emergence of represenLaLlve democracy ln WesLern clvlllzaLlon 'separaLlon of
rellglous and secular auLhorlLy rule of law and soclal plurallsm parllamenLary lnsLlLuLlons of
represenLaLlve governmenL and proLecLlon of lndlvldual rlghLs and clvll llberLles as Lhe buffer
beLween clLlzens and Lhe power of Lhe sLaLe'
60
ln Lhls clalms abouL how lslam ls lnlmlcal Lo
democracy are lnsufflclenL Lo explaln Lhe pollLlcal slLuaLlon ln Lhe reglon glven LhaL lslam llke oLher
rellglons ls openended sub[ecL Lo lnLerpreLaLlon and wldely varylng ln pracLlce across boLh Lhe
dlmenslons of Llme and dlsLance 1he Loplc of Lhls paper ls Arab pollLlcal reglmes and Lhe caLegory
'Musllm' ls Loo broad Lo be analyLlcally meanlngful
Much of Lhe llLeraLure seeklng Lo explaln Lhe lack of democracy ln Lhe Mlddle LasL falls lnLo Lhe
sLrucLural caLegory ln Lhls Lhe paLrlarchal and Lrlbal menLallLy of Arab socleLy ls sald Lo be one of
Lhe core facLors hlnderlng Lhe developmenL of plurallsL values 1he conLlnuaLlon of exLended klnshlp
Lles ls sald Lo lmpede Lhe emergence of a sense of naLlonal unlLy whlch ls poslLed as a prerequlslLe
Lo successful democraLlzaLlon
61
Slmllarly Mlchael Perb flnds LhaL secLarlan cleavages ln !ordan are
reflecLed ln a sLrucLurlng of elecLoral dlsLrlcLs LhaL prevenLs large secLlons of Lhe populaLlon from
havlng equlLable represenLaLlon ln Lhe leglslaLlve body
62
ln 8ahraln Lhe royal famlly llmlLs Lhe
powers of Lhe parllamenL because Lhe counLry's ma[orlLy populaLlon ls ShllLe whllsL lLs royalLy ls
Sunnl
A sLudy from Lhe CenLre of Luropean SLudles flnds LhaL ln several Mlddle LasLern counLrles
pollLlcal parLles are organlsed along eLhnlc and secLarlan llnes 1herefore ldenLlLy pollLlcs are more
lmporLanL Lhan 'vlews on Lhe common good or Lhe well belng of sLaLe and socleLy'
63
More
lmporLanLly a recurrenL Lheme wlLhln Mlddle LasLern socleLles ls LhaL of clans ln power oppresslng
nondomlnanL clans and wlLhholdlng from Lhem Lhe rlghL Lo soclally organlze
64
Communal rellglous

60
'1he 1rue Clash of ClvlllzaLlon'
hLLp//wwwhksharvardedu/fs/pnorrls/AcrobaL/lngleharL20lorelgn20ollcypdf 10 May 2011
61
osusney AngrlsL (2003) p4
62
Perb (1999) pp 212230
63
CenLre of Luropean SLudles (2008) pp1316
64
lbld p 16
[27]

and eLhnlc ldenLlLles remaln sLrong forces ln soclal llfe as do paLroncllenL relaLlonshlps and paLLerns
of paLrlarchal auLhorlLy 1hus Lhey presenL formldable obsLacles Lo democraLlzaLlon ln Lhe Mlddle
LasL
63
?eL alLhough eLhnlc dlvlslons may explaln Lhe lack of democraLlzaLlon ln counLrles such as
lraq !ordan and 8ahraln Lhe Lheory falls Lo explaln Lhe long reslllence of auLocraLlc governmenLs ln
counLrles wlLh more homogenous socleLles such as LgypL and 1unlsla
ln hls lnsLrucLlve arLlcle Why Are 1here no Arab uemocracles? Larry ulamond advances a
range of facLors LhaL have lnsplred Lhls year's Arab Sprlng proLesLs Among Lhem are Lhe

Arab sLaLes Lhemselves who relnforce one anoLher ln Lhelr auLhorlLarlanlsm and Lhelr
Lechnlques of monlLorlng rlgglng and represslon and who over Lhe decades have Lurned Lhe
22member Arab League lnLo an unapologeLlc auLocraLs' club Cf all Lhe ma[or reglonal
organlzaLlons Lhe Arab League ls Lhe mosL berefL of democraLlc norms and means for promoLlng
or encouraglng Lhem ln facL lLs charLer whlch has noL been amended ln half a cenLury lacks
any menLlon of democracy or lndlvldual rlghLs
66


Lva 8ellln argues LhaL Lhe reglon's Lrue excepLlonallsm lles ln Lhe robusLness and
overwhelmlng ablllLy of Arab auLhorlLarlan reglmes Lo remaln ln power 1helr wllllngness and ablllLy
Lo bulld coerclve apparaLuses Lo crush democraLlc lnlLlaLlves has smoLhered Lhe posslblllLy for
reform
67
AuLhorlLarlan reglmes ln Lhe Mlddle LasL are characLerlsed by Lhelr unresLralned spendlng
on securlLy creaLlng exLremely sophlsLlcaLed lnLelllgence apparaLuses and secreL pollces
68
1hese are
used Lo keep Lhe masses depollLlclzed Lhrough lnLruslve meLhods of survelllance medla conLrol and
lnLlmldaLlon ln general Lhe securlLy apparaLus ls dlvlded lnLo varlous facLlons (army pollce
lnLelllgence) whlch each reporL dlrecLly Lo Lhe ruler ln Lhls Lhe ruler has Lhe monopoly of conLrol
over Lhe securlLy forces and ls lndlspensable Lo Lhelr coordlnaLlon Llkewlse conLacL beLween Lhe

63
Sharabl (1988)
66
ulamond (2010) pp 101102
67
8ellln (2004) pp 143144
68
ulamond (2010) p 99
[28]

sLaLe and forelgn governmenLs ls llmlLed Lo Lhe rullng ellLe whlch Lherefore conLrols Lhe lnflux of
forelgn ald and lnvesLmenL
aLrlmonlallsm ls a cruclal facLor underlylng Lhe reslsLance Lo democracy ln Lhe Mlddle LasL
ln Lhls 'demoblllzlng Lhe opposlLlon and bulldlng a loyal base Lhrough selecLlve favourlLlsm and
dlscreLlonary paLronage'
69
ls one of Lhe core LacLlcs of auLhorlLarlan rulers ColdsLone refers Lo Lhem
as 'sulLanlsLlc dlcLaLors'
70
and explalns LhaL whlle Lhey may uphold cerLaln democraLlc pracLlces such
as elecLlons pollLlcal parLles a naLlonal assembly or a consLlLuLlon Lhey preslde over Lhem by
appolnLlng Lhelr supporLers Lo key poslLlons lndeed much of Lhe wealLh amassed by Lhese rulers ls
used Lo buy off supporL and crush opponenLs ln LgypL for lnsLance former presldenL Mubarak ls
sald Lo have bullL up a forLune of beLween $40 bllllon and $70 bllllon and 39 offl cl al s and
busl nessmen cl ose Lo hl s son Camal are cl al med Lo have accumul aLed more Lhan $1
bllllon each
71

neverLheless soclal represslon Lhrough Lhe coerclve apparaLus or paLrlmonlal organlsaLlon
alone ls noL whaL has enabled Lhe exLreme longevlLy of Arab auLhorlLarlanlsm lnsLead whaL ls
parLlcularly remarkable ls Lhe ablllLy of Lhese reglmes Lo comblne auLhorlLarlan sLrucLures and
pracLlces wlLh mechanlsms of represenLaLlon and consulLaLlon ln oLher words pracLlces of gulded
plurallsm manlpulaLed elecLlons and selecLlve represslon LhaL have occurred ln LgypL !ordan
Morocco Algerla and kuwalL are noL merely parL of a sLraLegy for reglme survlval buL represenL a
Lype of llberallzed auLocraLlc sysLem 'whose lnsLlLuLlons rule and loglc defy any llnear model of
democraLlzaLlon'
72
ln Llmes of soclal pressures from wlLhln Lhelr socleLles or from Lhe ouLslde Arab
rulers have proved parLlcularly efflclenL aL allowlng for Lemporary openlngs ln clvlc acLlvlLy and
lmprovemenLs ln human rlghLs Powever as soon as pollLlcal opposlLlon appears Lhe reglme llmlLs
pollLlcal space and reLurns Lo meLhods of represslon ln Lhls Mlddle LasLern auLocraLs have become
proflclenL ln conLalnlng dlsarmlng and explolLlng democraLlc pracLlces

69
8ellln (2004) p 143
70
ColdsLone (2011) p9
71
lbld p 11
72
8rumberg (2002) p 36
[29]

1here ls an economlc basls explalnlng Lhls ablllLy of Arab reglmes Lo conLaln democraLlc
pressures namely LhaL of Lhe renLler sLaLe A renLler sLaLe ls undersLood as one LhaL recelves on a
regular basls 'subsLanLlal amounLs of exLernal economlc renL'
73
ln oLher words a renLler sLaLe's
economy depends on unearned lncome derlved from Lhe exporL of naLural resources abroad ln Lhe
case of Lhe Mlddle LasL Lhls lncludes counLrles such as Saudl Arabla kuwalL 8ahraln Cman Lhe
unlLed Arab LmlraLes lraq CaLar lran Llbya Sudan ?emen and Algerla All of whlch derlve Lhelr
lncome prlmarlly from Lhe exporL of oll and gas 1ogeLher Lhese sLaLes accounL for 63 percenL of Lhe
world's proven oll reserves and 43 percenL of naLural gas reserves
74

1he Lheory of Lhe renLler sLaLe conLends LhaL auLhorlLarlanlsm prevalls ln counLrles where
proflLs from naLural resource exporLs replace Laxes ln governmenL lncome ln facL Lhe publlc ls noL
lnvolved ln Lhe creaLlon of wealLh ln a renLler sLaLe because wealLh ls almosL enLlrely generaLed by
oll revenues 1hus Lhe Lheory ls ofLen summed up ln Samuel PunLlngLon's aphorlsm 'no LaxaLlon
wlLhouL represenLaLlon" was a pollLlcal demand no represenLaLlon wlLhouL LaxaLlon" ls a pollLlcal
reallLy'
73
Clven LhaL exLernal renL llberaLes sLaLes from Lhe need Lo exLracL lncome from Lhelr
domesLlc economles Lhe resulL ls a heavlly cenLrallzed sLaLe ln whlch governmenL leaders buy off
pollLlcal dlssenL 1he relaLlonshlp beLween oll and pollLlcs ls analysed by 8oss who uses cross
naLlonal daLa from 113 sLaLes beLween 1971 and 1997 Lo flnd LhaL 'Lhe olllmpedesdemocracy clalm
ls boLh valld and sLaLlsLlcally robusL oll does hurL democracy'
76
lL ls hereby argued LhaL resource
rlch sLaLes ln Lhe Mlddle LasL are flnanclally auLonomous granLlng Lhem lmmunlLy from democraLlc
pressures 1hese sLaLes use low Lax raLes and paLronage Lo repress popular movemenLs Llkewlse oll
wealLh enables renLler governmenLs Lo sLrengLhen Lhelr lnLernal securlLy apparaLuses and hence
keep soclal facLlons ln check ConsequenLly Mlddle LasL sLaLes LhaL base Lhelr economlc growLh on

73
Mahdavy (1970) p 428
74
'Sound ollcles SofLen Crlsls lmpacL on Mlddle LasL'
hLLp//wwwlmforg/exLernal/pubs/fL/survey/so/2009/car101109ahLm 20 March 2011
73
PunLlngLon (1991) p 63
76
8oss (2001a) pp 336337
[30]

Lhe exporL of oll and oLher naLural resources are unllkely Lo brlng abouL Lhe soclal and culLural
LransformaLlons LhaL Lend Lo push Lowards democraLlc governmenL
Powever explalnlng Lhe democracy deflclL ln Lhe Mlddle LasL goes well beyond Lhe oll facLor
1he olllmpedesdemocracy clalm does noL explaln Lhe lack of democraLlzaLlon ln resourcepoor
counLrles such as LgypL Morocco 1unlsla Syrla and !ordan ln Lhese counLrles lnsLead exogenous
renLs exlsLs for sLraLeglc reasons ln Lhe form of forelgn ald 1hls dynamlc shapes domesLlc pollLlcs ln
Lhe reglon ln slmllar ways as renL derlved from Lhe exporL of oll and gas SLraLeglc renL ls provlded by
WesLern governmenLs ln order Lo guaranLee Lhe sLeady flow of oll and gas supplles secure
cooperaLlon ln Lhe global flghL agalnsL Lerrorlsm encourage peaceful relaLlons wlLh lsrael and
conLrol mlgraLlon ln oLher words large amounLs of flnanclal ald are poured lnLo counLrles of Lhe
Mlddle LasL Lo ensure securlLy sLablllLy and cooperaLlon ln Lhe case of LgypL for lnsLance uS
developmenL asslsLance Lo Lhe counLry has amounLed Lo $28 bllllon slnce 1973
77
ln !ordan uS
economlc and mlllLary asslsLance annually amounLs Lo around $630 mllllon slnce 2001
78
Clven LhaL
Lhese counLrles do noL dlspose of LransparenL democraLlc lnsLlLuLlons Lo effecLlvely admlnlsLer
forelgn ald Lhe money ls used Lo malnLaln exLenslve securlLy apparaLuses LhaL repress poLenLlal
opposlLlon Lo auLhorlLarlan reglmes 1hus slmllar Lo oll and gas forelgn ald acLs as sLraLeglc renL
maklng posslble 'Lhe reglme's key pollLlcal sLraLegy of spendlng masslvely on publlc [obs wlLhouL
lmposlng sLeep Laxes'
79
1he ald ls absorbed by governmenL leaders and 'flnanclally enables Lhe
malnLenance of llleglLlmaLe lnsLlLuLlons of lnLernal survelllance and represslon on whlch auLocraLlc
reglmes heavlly rely'
80

1he predlcamenLs of democracy ln Lhe Arab world are furLher exacerbaLed by Lhe reglon's sofL
spoL for mlllLarlsm whlch manlfesLs ln old and new unresolved reglonal and lnLernal confllcLs
Among Lhe deeprooLed perslsLenL problems are llngerlng confllcLs such as Lhe Arablsraell lraql

77
ulamond (2010) p 101
78
lbld p 101
79
?om (2009) p 163
80
erllnl (2011) p3
[31]

lranlan LlbyanChadlan Lebanese Sudanese Somall Saharan confllcLs Some of whlch have broken
ouL lnLo armed confllcLs on and off for decades Accordlng Lo Lhe un lnsLlLuLe for ulsarmamenL
8esearch Lhe Mlddle LasL ls a reglon of hlgh mlllLary spendlng relaLlve Lo gross domesLlc producL
(Cu) and has 'correspondlngly hlgh levels of arms lmporLs'
81
MlllLary spendlng ln Lhe area
lncreased by 34 percenL over Lhe perlod 19992008 and '7 of Lhe 10 counLrles wlLh Lhe hlghesL
mlllLary burdens ln 2007 were Mlddle LasLern'
82
1he area whlch makes up for around 3 percenL of
Lhe world's populaLlon accounLed for 21 percenL of world lmporLs of ma[or convenLlonal weapons
beLween 2004 and 2008
83

8elevanL Lo our maln concern Lhe Mlddle LasL's democracy deflclL ls Lhe dlsmal presence of
confllcL wlLhln Lhe Arab world ColdsLone conLends LhaL war hardens reglmes and lmpedes
democracy
84
noland's causal analysls flnds LhaL greaLer mlllLarlzaLlon ls assoclaLed wlLh less
democracy and Cause argues LhaL lnLernal and exLernal confllcL ls used Lo enable undemocraLlc rule

Wars Lend Lo concenLraLe power ln Lhe hands of Lhe execuLlveWars make lL easler Lo
sLlgmaLlze as Lreasonous and Lhen suppress opposlLlon forces War preparaLlon leads Lo
greaLer sLaLe conLrol over Lhe economy llmlLlng Lhe power and auLonomy of prlvaLe secLor
economlc acLors who mlghL press for democraLlc reform War preparaLlon requlres bulldlng
a coerclve apparaLus LhaL Lhen can be used lnLernally
83


Llkewlse 8ellln asserLs LhaL unrelenLlng lnLernal and exLernal confllcL provldes rheLorlcal
leglLlmlzaLlon for coerclve reglmes and allows for Lhe malnLenance of prolonged sLaLes of emergency
LhaL suppress clvll llberLles ln many MLnA counLrles
86
8egardlng Lhe Arablsraell confllcL Anderson
suggesLs LhaL Lhe 'prospecLs for democracy seem Lo lncrease ln dlrecL proporLlon Lo Lhe dlsLance of a

81
Arms 1ransfers Lo Lhe Mlddle LasL' hLLp//wwwunldlrorg/pdf/acLlvlLes/pdf3acL463pdf 10 May 2011
82
lbld
83
lbld
84
ColdsLone (2011) p 16
83
Cause (1993) p 286
86
8ellln (2004) p 137
[32]

counLry from Lhe Arablsraell and erslan Culf arenas'
87
All of Lhese confllcLs are cosLly ln maLerlal
and human Lerms 1he Mlddle LasL reglon ls Lhe prlnclpal buyer and consumer of leLhal arms ln Lhe
1hlrd World spendlng an average of 100 bllllon annually over Lhe lasL Lwo decades wlLhouL seLLllng
mosL of Lhe above menLloned confllcLs
88


Along wlLh mlllLarlsm Lhe democracy deflclL ln Lhe Mlddle LasL can be explalned by Lhe
fraglle characLer of clvll socleLy ln Lhe reglon Saad Lddln lbrahlm deflnes clvll socleLy as an
'organlzed collecLlve parLlclpaLlon ln Lhe publlc space beLween lndlvlduals and Lhe sLaLe'
89
lL
lncludes nonsLaLe acLors nongovernmenLal organlzaLlons as well as pollLlcal parLles Lrade unlons
professlonal assoclaLlons and oLher lnLeresL groups whlch serve as lnLermedlarles beLween Lhe
lndlvldual and Lhe sLaLe 1he connecLlon beLween clvll socleLy and democraLlzaLlon resLs ln LhaL
democracy ls lnLended Lo enable governmenL Lhrough peaceful organlzaLlon of compeLlng groups
and confllcLlng lnLeresLs uemocracy ls ulLlmaLely a quesLlon of checks and balances as Mehran
kamrava explalns democracy ls an lssue of 'balance beLween sLaLe and socleLy lL comes abouL
when a sLaLe's powers are held ln check over Llme by procedures and by lnsLlLuLlonal mechanlsms
grounded ln and supporLed by socleLy'
90
Pereln lL ls malnly Lhrough clvll socleLy LhaL clLlzens
'proLecL Lhelr rlghLs as lndlvlduals force pollcy makers Lo accommodaLe Lhelr lnLeresLs and llmlL
abuses of sLaLe auLhorlLy'
91
Clvll socleLy brlngs abouL a culLure of bargalnlng provldlng fuLure
leaders wlLh Lhe skllls Lo arLlculaLe ldeas form coallLlons and govern 1herefore a sLrong clvll socleLy
glves rlse Lo a hlgh level of lnsLlLuLlonallzed soclal plurallsm Powever ln Lhe Mlddle LasL auLocraLlc
reglmes have reached bargalns wlLh cerLaln soclal and economlc acLors ln Lhelr socleLles 1hls
confers Lhem a sorL of superflclal leglLlmacy LhaL paclfles poLenLlally opposlLlonal acLors and enables

87
Anderson (2001) p 36
88
'uefense Spendlng ln Mlddle LasL expecLed Lo surpass $100 bllllon by 2014'
hLLp//wwwfrosLcom/prod/servleL/pressreleasepag?docld189276179 !uly 22 2011
89
lbrahlm (1993) p 29
90
kamrava (2007) p 208
91
'1he Weak SLaLe of Arab democracy' hLLp//wwwnyLlmescom/2011/03/29/oplnlon/29kuranhLml 10 May
2011
[33]

Lhe reglme's survlval Moreover Arab dlcLaLors have successfully sllenced clvll socleLy ln Lhelr
counLrles by weakenlng Lhe ouLreach of Lhe news medla sLlfllng lnLellecLual lnqulry regulaLlng Lhe
arLs and bannlng pollLlcal parLles ln LgypL for lnsLance renowned human rlghLs and democracy
acLlvlsL Saad Lddln lbrahlm was accused of defamlng LgypL and senLenced Lo Lwo years of prlson ln
2008
1hls chronlc weakness of clvll socleLy lnslnuaLes LhaL vlable Arab democracles or leaders
who could govern Lhem wlll have dlfflculLy emerglng anyLlme soon ln Lhls 1lmur kuran clalms LhaL
Lhe more llkely lmmedlaLe ouLcome of currenL uprlslngs ln Lhe Mlddle LasL ls a new seL of dlcLaLors
or slngleparLy reglmes
92
neverLheless lL ls worLh Lo menLlon LhaL wlLhln Lhe lasL decade Lhere has
been an 'unprecedenLed lncrease of varlous clvll socleLy organlzaLlons and of assoclaLlonal llfe ln Lhe
Mlddle LasL'
93
?eL alLhough clvll socleLy may have developed ln Lhe reglon lL has hlLherLo falled Lo
provlde a long Lerm shlfL ln Lhe balance of power away from Lhe sLaLe and ln favour of socleLy

32 1he Co||apse of the Author|tar|an 8arga|n

Powever desplLe Lhe robusL characLer of auLhorlLarlanlsm ln Lhe Arab world and lLs ablllLy Lo
lmpede democraLlc progress Lhe collapse of Lhe auLhorlLarlan bargaln has recenLly provlded for an
lmpeLus for pollLlcal change ln facL dlcLaLorlal reglmes are sald Lo rely on an 'auLhorlLarlan bargaln'
LhaL ls 'an lmpllclL arrangemenL beLween rullng ellLes and clLlzens whereby clLlzens rellnqulsh
pollLlcal lnfluence ln exchange for publlc spendlng'
94
lL lmplles a llnk beLween redlsLrlbuLlve pollcles
and pollLlcal conLrol Analyses of Lhese bargalns have been evoked ln comparaLlve pollLlcs Lo explaln
Lhe sLablllLy or breakdown of varlous Lypes of nondemocraLlc reglmes ln Lhelr sLudy of Lhe loglc of
Lhe 'auLhorlLarlan bargaln' 8esal Clofsgard and ?ousef flnd LhaL auLhorlLarlan reglmes choose Lhe
'lesLcosL bundle of economlc beneflLs and pollLlcal openness necessary Lo susLaln Lhelr rulershlp and

92
kuran (2011) hLLp//wwwnyLlmescom/2011/03/29/oplnlon/29kuranhLml?_r1refLodayspaper !uly 22
2011
93
lbld (2007) p 211
94
uesal Clofsgard ?ousef (2009) p 93
[34]

secure publlc supporL'
93
1hese bargalns are ofLen fed by Lhe exlsLence of exLernal renLs LhaL allow
auLocraLlc reglmes Lo malnLaln generous welfare and publlcemploymenL programs whllsL reLalnlng
flrm conLrol over pollLlcal llfe
96

1he case of LgypL ln Lhe 1930s and 1960s under Lhe reglme of Camal Abdel nasser besL
lllusLraLes Lhls ldea of an auLhorlLarlan bargaln nasser's popullsL as well as auLhorlLarlan
governmenL made a rullng bargaln wlLh labour and Lhe mlddle class whereby pollLlcal parLles were
banned and clvlc organlsaLlons and Lrade unlons were puL under dlrecL conLrol of Lhe reglme ln
reLurn Lhe sLaLe guaranLeed Lhe provlslon of soclal and welfare packages ln Lhe form of 'subsldles
for food governmenL employmenL energy houslng and LransporLaLlon as well as free educaLlon
and healLh care'
97
ln Lhe 1990s however unsusLalnable levels of exLernal debL broughL abouL an
economlc crlsls LhaL forced Posnl Mubarak's reglme Lo adopL Lhe World 8ank's economlc reform
program ln accordance wlLh neollberal prlnclples soclal beneflLs were cuL sLaLeowned enLerprlses
were prlvaLlzed Lhe longLlme guaranLee of sLaLe employmenL for unlverslLy graduaLes was
suspended Lrade was llberallzed and subsldles for varlous commodlLles were puL off ln addlLlon
publlc spendlng on educaLlon healLh care houslng and LransporLaLlon decllned deLerloraLlng Lhe
quallLy of Lhe servlces As a resulL wealLh was concenLraLed ln Lhe hands of Lhe few whlle Lhe
ma[orlLy of Lhe LgypLlan populaLlon became lncreaslngly marglnallzed
Meanwhlle as Lhe cosL of soclal beneflLs and oLher programs used by Lhe reglme Lo appease lLs
clLlzens lnflaLed keeplng Lhe masses depollLlclzed became ever more dlfflculL As Lhe economy
expanded and educaLlon spread ln counLrles of Lhe Mlddle LasL Lhe number of people wlLh hlgher
asplraLlons and growlng concern abouL lnLruslve meLhods of pollce survelllance lncreased 1he
populaLlon grew rapldly and lnequallLy and unemploymenL rose urbanlzlng and expandlng
populaLlons suffered from food prlces LhaL rose by 32 percenL ln 2010 alone whlle wages and

93
lbld p 117
96
lbld
97
ShehaLa (2011) p 26
[35]

opporLunlLles have remalned low
98
?eL as ColdsLone explalns revoluLlons are noL slmply fuelled by
a lack of growLh or rlslng prlces lnsLead Lhey arlse from Lhe 'perslsLence of wldespread and
unrelleved poverLy amld lncreaslngly exLravaganL wealLh'
99
Plgh levels of unemploymenL have
conLrlbuLed Lo reglonal dlsconLenL sLemmlng parLly from Lhe ma[or youLh bulge ln Lhe Mlddle LasL
lL ls currenLly esLlmaLed LhaL around 30 percenL of Lhe populaLlon llvlng ln Lhe MLnA reglon ls
aged beLween 13 and 24
100
1hls percenLage ranges from 38 percenL ln 8ahraln and 1unlsla Lo over
30 percenL ln ?emen AddlLlonally Lhe overall populaLlon of Lhe reglon ls growlng aL approxlmaLely 2
percenL a year whlch ls hlgher Lhan Lhe world average 1hus Lhe sharp lncrease ln Lhe share of 13
Lo24 year olds ln Lhe LoLal populaLlon referred Lo as Lhe 'youLh bulge' comblned wlLh Lhe rapld
expanslon of Lhe LoLal populaLlon has resulLed ln Lhe mosL acuLe lncrease ln Lhe number of youLh ln
Lhe reglon's hlsLory A greaL number of Lhese young people have been able Lo aLLend unlverslLy
Accordlng Lo ColdsLone college enrolmenL has soared across Lhe reglon ln recenL decades 'more
Lhan Lrlpllng ln 1unlsla quadrupllng ln LgypL and expandlng Lenfold ln Llbya'
101
Powever Lhe
numbers of sLudenLs acqulrlng educaLlon has noL LranslaLed lnLo hlgher raLes of employmenL and
wages ln LgypL 'college graduaLes are Len Llmes as llkely Lo have no [ob as Lhose wlLh only an
elemenLary school educaLlon'
102
ln Lhe Mlddle LasL reglonal youLh unemploymenL hlL 26 percenL ln
2003 represenLlng Lwlce Lhe global average
103
1hls ls parLly due Lo Lhe facL LhaL educaLlonal sysLems
ln Lhe reglon are seL Lo preparlng sLudenLs Lo serve ln Lhe publlc secLor whlch used Lo be Lhe
prlnclpal employer of workforce enLranLs ln mosL MLnA economles buL ls no longer able Lo secure
Lhls role SLudles esLlmaLe LhaL MLnA's labour force wlll lncrease by nearly 80 percenL beLween 2000
and 2020
104
1he lnablllLy of Lhe reglon's reglmes Lo cope wlLh Lhls wave of new enLranLs comblned

98
'1he prlce of food ls aL Lhe hearL of Lhls wave of revoluLlons'
hLLp//wwwlndependenLcouk/news/world/afrlca/LheprlceoffoodlsaLLhehearLofLhlswaveof
revoluLlons2226896hLml !uly 4 2011
99
ColdsLone (2011) p 12
100
'?ouLh ln MLnA' hLLp//wwwprborg/pdf07/youLhlnMLnApdf !uly 4 2011
101
ColdsLone (2011) p 12
102
lbld pp1213
103
lLC (2006) p 4
104
?ouLh ln MLnA' hLLp//wwwprborg/pdf07/youLhlnMLnApdf !uly 4 2011
[36]

wlLh Lhe facL LhaL abouL 23 percenL of Lhe 300 mllllon people ln Lhe Mlddle LasL and norLh Afrlca llve
on less Lhan $2 a day ls one of Lhe ma[or reasons for Lhe recenL push Lowards democraLlzaLlon
103


Cverall Lhe domesLlc perspecLlve demonsLraLes LhaL a varleLy of facLors such as eLhnlc and
secLarlan dlvlslons represslon Lhrough Lhe coerclve apparaLus paLrlmonlal organlzaLlon pracLlces of
llberallzed auLocracy renLler economlcs mlllLarlsm and a weak clvll socleLy explaln Lhe currenL level
of nondemocraLlzaLlon ln Lhe Mlddle LasL 1he core argumenL belng LhaL Lhe democracy deflclL ln
Lhese sLaLes ls largely caused by Lhe unfalr manner ln whlch power and wealLh are allocaLed
LhroughouL Lhe pollLy allowlng Lhe reglme Lo acLlvely suppress lLs opposlLlon neverLheless Lhe
collapse of Lhe auLhorlLarlan bargaln and Lhe Lremendous changes ln Lhe reglon's demographlcs
have provlded for a relenLless push Lowards democraLlc change
1he quesLlon arlslng from Lhls lnvesLlgaLlon of Lhe Mlddle LasL's longsLandlng pollLlcal
sLagnaLlon ls wheLher democracy acLually represenLs a prlmary value for Lhe people of Lhe reglon
1he Arab world has been plagued by longlasLlng exLernal and lnLernal confllcLs LhaL LhreaLen soclal
securlLy and sLablllLy MosL lmporLanLly Lhe lsraelalesLlne confllcL LhaL has endured for over half a
cenLury embrolllng Lhe Mlddle LasL ln slx ma[or wars cosLlng Lens of Lhousands of Arab and lsraell
llves dlverLlng flnanclal and energy resources from producLlve venLures Lo Lhe purchase of
weaponry and flnally slgnlflcanLly lmpedlng reglonal cooperaLlon
106
1he confllcL has lefL Lhe Mlddle
LasL wlLh Lhe burden of shelLerlng alesLlnlan refugees Lhe world's largesL and longesLsLandlng
refugee communlLy ln Lhe world ln addlLlon Lhe recenL dlsplacemenL of Lhe lraql people afLer Lhe
uS lnvaslon of lraq ln 2003 has Lrlggered Lhe worsL humanlLarlan crlsls slnce Lhe creaLlon of Lhe sLaLe
of lsrael ln 1948 ln Syrla Lebanon and !ordan alesLlnlan and lraql refugees are creaLlng an almosL
lnsurmounLable soclal and economlc problem fuelllng reglonal Lenslons Moreover Lhe reglon ls

103
'World 8ank ueflnlLlon MLnA'
hLLp//webworldbankorg/W8Sl1L/Lx1L8nAL/CCun18lLS/MLnALx1/0menuk247619pagek146748
plk146812LheSlLek23629900hLml !uly 4 2011
106
Carnham (1993) pp xlvxv
[37]

geographlcally surrounded by Lhe dangers posed by nuclear and blochemlcal weapons prollferaLlon
Laklng place ln lsrael lran and aklsLan and pursued lnLermlLLenLly ln Llbya Syrla and lraq lrom an
economlc perspecLlve Lhe unemploymenL raLe ln Lhe Mlddle LasL has been recorded Lhe hlghesL ln
Lhe world wlLh populaLlons sLruggllng dally for baslc soclal and economlc survlval
107
Coupled wlLh
percelved global LhreaLs Lo Arab culLure and ldenLlLy slnce Lhe arLlculaLlon of Lhe 8ush
admlnlsLraLlon's War on 1error Lhese llngerlng problems have long prevenLed Lhe emergence of a
solld opposlLlon movemenL demandlng [usL and accounLable governmenL
Powever Lhe democracy deflclL ln Lhe Mlddle LasL has Laken a new Lurn Slnce uecember
2010 a revoluLlonary wave of demonsLraLlons ls sweeplng across Lhe reglon wlLh hundreds of
Lhousands of people marchlng Lhe sLreeLs demandlng leglLlmaLe governmenL and Lhe reslgnaLlon of
auLocraLlc leaders known as Lhe 'Arab Sprlng' or 'Arab Awakenlng' lL was sparked by
demonsLraLlons ln 1unlsla followlng Lhe selflmmolaLlon of [obless graduaLe Mohamed 8ouazlzl ln
proLesL of pollce corrupLlon
108
1he success of Lhe 1unlslan revoluLlon subsequenLly Lrlggered a wave
of proLesLs ln Algerla !ordan LgypL Llbya and ?emen and Lhen spread Lo Cman Morocco 8ahraln
Saudl Arabla lraq Syrla and kuwalL 1he proLesLs led Lo Lhe overLhrow of 1unlslan resldenL Zlne Ll
Abldlne 8en All who had been ln power for over 20 years and LgypLlan resldenL Posnl Mubarak
who reslgned afLer 18 days of mass demonsLraLlons endlng hls 30year long presldency ln Llbya
Muammar alCaddafl refused Lo surrender hls powers causlng a clvll war beLween reglme supporLers
and rebels and mosL lmporLanLly a forelgn lnLervenLlon by nA1C forces ln Syrla ?emen and
8ahraln governmenLs have counLered proLesLs wlLh vlolenL represslon and mlllLary ralds causlng a
greaL number of clvlllan casualLles
109
1hese recenL revolLs suggesL LhaL people ln Lhe Mlddle LasL

107
'l 1rade lacLs'
hLLp//wwwpplonllneorg/ppl_clcfm?knlgArealu108subseclu900003conLenLlu234026 20 March 2011
108
'Arab Sprlng An lnLeracLlve 1lmellne of Mlddle LasL roLesLs' (!une 2011)
hLLp//wwwguardlancouk/world/lnLeracLlve/2011/mar/22/mlddleeasLproLesLlnLeracLlveLlmellne 27 !une
2011
109
'Syrla CasualLles mounL ln 8anlyas afLer proLesLers call for Assad reglme Lo fall' (Aprll 2011)
hLLp//laLlmesblogslaLlmescom/babylonbeyond/2011/04/syrlabanlyassecurlLyarmsproLesLsln[ured
kllledhLml 28 !une 2011 see also '8ahraln's naLlonal ulalogue and Lhe Lverueepenlng SecLarlan ulvlde'
(!une 2011) hLLp//carnegleendowmenLorg/2011/06/29/bahralnsnaLlonaldlalogueandeverdeepenlng
secLarlandlvlde/mxw 4 !uly 2011
[38]

have begun Lo vlew Lhelr problems of [usLlce securlLy and ldenLlLy as llnked Lo Lhe lack of democracy
ln Lhe reglon
110
roreform grass rooLs movemenLs have manlfesLed Lhemselves publlcly crlLlclslng
Lhe auLocracles ln place
111
1he comblnaLlon of demographlcs and unemploymenL ls a cenLral
moLlvaLlon for recenL domesLlc proLesLs lor lnsLance n Saudl Arabla one person ouL of Lhree was
under Lhe age of 14 ln 2007 and ln LgypL 60 of Lhe populaLlon was beLween 1830 years of age ln
2008
112
1herefore economles ln Lhe reglon wlll mosL llkely be unable Lo cope wlLh Lhe huge lnflux
of people expecLed Lo enLer Lhe labour markeL ln Lhe comlng years and unemploymenL wlll become
an even more presslng lssue 1hls year's revolLs ln 1unlsla LgypL ?emen 8ahraln !ordan and Llbya
LogeLher wlLh proLesLs ln Morocco Algerla Cman Saudl Arabla and Syrla lndlcaLe LhaL Arab socleLles
are wllllng and able Lo express and ln some cases peacefully puL Lhrough Lhelr demands for change
such as ln LgypL and 1unlsla Pereln Lhe balance of power beLween sLaLe and socleLy ls shlfLlng as
popular parLlclpaLlon ln pollLlcs lncreases and Lhe power of Lhe pollce sLaLe dlmlnlshes
lL ls lmporLanL Lo keep ln mlnd LhaL Lhe Arab Sprlng ls noL an ldeologlcal revoluLlon lnsLead
people are demandlng respecLful and accounLable governmenL plunglng lnLo a plurallsLlc dlscourse
LhaL has engaged whole populaLlons roLesLers are demandlng respecL from Lhelr governmenLs and
Lhe acknowledgemenL of Lhelr rlghLs as clLlzens as well as a form of governmenL LhaL has
responslblllLles Lowards lLs clLlzens lL ls ldeologlcal only ln Lhe sense LhaL Lhls generaLlon of people
belleves LhaL governmenLs are Lhere Lo serve Lhem buL Lhey are noL swepL up ln ldeologlcal
movemenLs of any klnd






110
erllnl (2011) p 6 and 8rown Shahln (2009) pp 13
111
8rown Shahln (2009) pp 34
112
LhLeshaml WrlghL (2007) p 916 and 'Arab 8epubllc of LgypL' hLLp//wwwnasee[
cydorg/flles/LgypL_roflle_enpdf 20 March 2011
[39]

Democracy |n the M|dd|e ast rospects and Cha||enges

1 1he Arab Spr|ng Cha||enges Ahead

Clven Lhe dlfflculL hlsLory of democraLlzaLlon ln Lhe reglon whaL are Lhe prospecLs for
successful pollLlcal change ln Lhe counLrles LhaL have recenLly ousLed Lhelr reglmes? 1he alm of Lhls
chapLer ls Lo ldenLlfy Lhe fuLure challenges LhaL wlll shape Lhe level of democraLlzaLlon ln Lhe reglon
focuslng parLlcularly on Lhe dlverse characLer of Arab sLaLes and Lhe dlfferenL ouLcomes Lhey wlll
produce lurLher Lhe secLlon looks aL Lhe lssue of Lhe mlllLary's cruclal role durlng Lhe LranslLlon
perlod as well as Lhe prlnclple developmenLs LhaL have already changed Lhe way ln whlch we Lhlnk
abouL democracy ln Lhe Arab world namely a new klnd of panArablsm and a new generaLlon of
leaders

1he sLudy of Lhe currenL sLaLe of democracy ln Lhe Mlddle LasL hlghllghLs LhaL
generallsaLlons abouL Lhe reglon are dlfflculL because every auLocraLlc reglme ls dlfferenL Slmllarly
Lhe proLesLs ln Lhe reglon are exLremely dlverse and Lhey are llkely Lo resulL ln compleLely dlfferenL
ouLcomes ln Lhls whlle Lhere ls reasonable opLlmlsm abouL a LranslLlon Lo democraLlc governmenL
ln 1unlsla and LgypL LhaL ls noL Lhe case ln Llbya and Syrla for lnsLance
CerLaln pollLlcal analysLs hlghllghL Lhe facL LhaL for Lhe momenL Lhe mosL organlsed groups
ln Arab socleLles are on one hand Lhe army varlous oLher facLlons of Lhe securlLy apparaLuses and
lslamlsL enLlLles on Lhe oLher Accordlng Lo Lhe resldenL of Lhe Councll on lorelgn 8elaLlons 8lchard
Paass secular llberal parLles are mosLly weak and dlvlded and lL ls noL llkely LhaL Lhey wlll manage
Lo prevall ln any pollLlcal compeLlLlon ln Lhe near Lerm 'lacebook and 1wlLLer maLLer buL noL
enough'
113
1he dlfflculLy lles ln Lhe facL LhaL Lhese counLrles have Lo compleLely reLhlnk Lhelr
pollLlcal sysLems 1helr consLlLuLlons need Lo be rewrlLLen and checks and balances musL be creaLed

113
Paass (2011)
[40]

Pereln Lhere ls an argumenL Lo be made LhaL pollLlcal lnsLablllLy ln Lhe Mlddle LasL wlll allow
dlsrupLlve lnfluences Lo galn power lmpedlng Lhe emergence of a sLable order Accordlng Lo former
uS uepuLy AsslsLanL SecreLary of uefence Mlchael uoran Lhe porous characLer of Arab pollLlcs wlll
provlde hosLlle LransnaLlonal neLworks such as al Caeda wlLh new flelds Lo plough
114
WesLern
governmenLs have long argued LhaL democracy ln Lhe reglon would lnevlLably allow lslamlsL groups
such as Lhe Musllm 8roLherhood Lo Lake power 1he 8roLherhood ls sald Lo be Lhe mosL organlsed
opposlLlon parLy ln LgypL because lL has been acLlve slnce several decades ln conLrasL Lo oLher
groups Cn Lhe oLher hand ln face of Lhe reglme's collapse for whlch lL was noL prepared and Lhe
rlse of reformlsL groups Lhe role of Lhe 8roLherhood seems less clear fuelllng Lhe generaLlonal
cleavage beLween lLs members
113
ln Lhls Lhe lnfluence of Lhe 8roLherhood should noL be
overesLlmaLed as lL ls merely one of many groups demandlng democracy and human rlghLs
Meanwhlle conservaLlves popullsLs lslamlsLs and modernlzlng reformers are flercely vylng
for power ln 1unlsla LgypL and posslbly Llbya meanlng LhaL Lhose counLrles wlll llkely face
exLenslve perlods of abrupL governmenL Lurnovers and pollcy reversals
116
MosL lmporLanLly
counLrles LhaL have recenLly experlenced democraLlc revoluLlons wlll have Lo grapple wlLh
esLabllshlng pollLlcal lnsLlLuLlons such as consLlLuLlons parLles and elecLoral sysLems Llbya wlll have
Lhe even more dlfflculL Lask of bulldlng a clvll socleLy afLer a clvll war LgypL speclflcally wlll sLruggle
wlLh Lhe legacy of mlllLary rule glven LhaL Lhe army ls deeply lnLerwoven lnLo domesLlc pollLlcs and
economlcs 1unlsla wlll have Lo amelloraLe Lhe relaLlonshlp beLween lLs prlvlleged urban areas and
lLs desLlLuLe rural hlnLerlands
eaceful LranslLlon Lo effecLlve democraLlc governmenL ls Lherefore noL a glven ln 2003 Lhe
Cedar revoluLlon ended Lhree decades of Syrlan mlllLary occupaLlon ln Lebanon and broughL a new
WesLernbacked anLlSyrlan governmenL lnLo power glvlng hope for a compleLe break wlLh Lhe pasL
?eL slx years laLer Lebanon's chronlc predlcamenLs perslsL 'secLarlanlsm corrupLlon Lhe lnsecurlLy

114
uoran (2011) p 19
113
Anderson Llsa (2011) 'Arab World ollLlcal unresL' hLLp//wwwc
spanarchlvesorg/program/WorldupshowlullAbsLracL1 !uly 4 2011
116
ColdsLone (2011) p 1316
[41]

broughL by a weak cenLral sLaLe forelgn meddllng and armed parLy mlllLlas'
117
AlLhough Lhe case of
Lebanon does noL necessarlly provlde for predlcLlons on Lhe ouLcomes of Lhls year's Arab revolLs lL
does hlghllghL LhaL recenL evenLs mlghL noL auLomaLlcally resulL ln successful democraLlzaLlon lacL
ls LhaL afLer Lwo generaLlons of pollLlcal sLagnaLlon Lhe Mlddle LasL faces many challenges and Lhe
perlod of democraLlc LranslLlon mlghL Lake a long Llme As ColdsLone phrases lL 'afLer Lhe posL
revoluLlonary honeymoon perlod ends dlvlslons wlLhln Lhe opposlLlon sLarL Lo surface'
118
uurlng Lhe
LranslLlon essenLlal debaLes over Lhe Lype of governmenL wheLher presldenLlal or parllamenLary
LaxaLlon sLaLe spendlng or Lhe role of Lhe mlllLary wlll come onLo Lhe agenda and lncreaslngly dlvlde
reformers compeLlng for power ln 1unlsla and LgypL

4.2 1he ko|e of the Army |n the 1rans|t|on er|od

8ecenL democraLlc sLlrrlngs across Lhe Arab world have hlghllghLed Lhe plvoLal role of Lhe
mlllLary ln shaplng Lhe ouLcome of popular proLesLs ln LgypL Lhe mlllLary refused Lo shooL lLs own
people and assumed a raLher neuLral role durlng Lhe proLesLs Conversely Lhe Syrlan army has
proven loyal Lo Lhe reglme bruLally represslng prodemocracy demonsLraLlons 1he reason for Lhese
lncreaslngly dlfferenL ouLcomes lles ln Lhe dlfferenLlaLlon beLween on one hand Lhe army as an
exLenslon of Lhe sLaLe and on Lhe oLher Lhe army as an exLenslon of Lhe reglme ln Lhe sLudy of
lnLernaLlonal relaLlons a teqlme ls known as Lhe 'seL of rules culLural or soclal norms LhaL regulaLe
Lhe operaLlons of governmenL and lLs lnLeracLlons wlLh socleLy lncludlng how lLs lncumbenLs are
selecLed'
119
ln Lhls reglmes are deslgned Lo creaLe and regulaLe Lhe governmenL of a modern sLaLe
Accordlng Lo Max Weber a pollLlcal unlL ls a sLaLe 'lf and lnsofar as lLs admlnlsLraLlve sLaff
successfully upholds a clalm on Lhe mooopoly of Lhe leqltlmote use of vlolence ln Lhe enforcemenL of

117
'8evoluLlon Splnnlng ln Lhe Wlnd'(2011) hLLp//wwweconomlsLcom/node/18938237?sLory_ld18938237
!uly 22 2011
118
ColdsLone (2011) p 14
119
Anderson (2011) hLLp//wwwscrlbdcom/doc/60377334/LlsaAndersonL28094uemocracy
AuLhorlLarlanlsmand8eglmeChangelnLheArabWorld !uly 2011
[42]

lLs order'
120
ln counLrles where Lhe sLaLe ls sLrong such as LgypL and 1unlsla Lhe mlllLarles are loyal
noL Lo Lhe reglme buL Lo Lhe sLaLe lLself because afflllaLlon Lo Lhe sLaLe ls exLenslve and clear cuL
Powever ln counLrles where Lhe ldenLlLy of Lhe reglme ls so closely relaLed Lo Lhe ldenLlLy of Lhe
sLaLe and where efforLs Lo remove Lhe reglme are lnLerpreLed as a LhreaL Lo Lhe sLaLe lLself Lhe
mlllLary Lends Lo be loyal Lo Lhe reglme and noL Lo Lhe sLaLe ln Lhls case Lhe mlllLary has more Lo
lose should Lhe reglme fall hence lL ls llkely Lo vlolenLly crackdown opposlLlon Lo Lhe reglme as ls
Lhe currenL case ln Syrla ln Lhls ln LgypL Lhe mlllLary has acLed as a funcLlon of Lhe sLaLe whereas ln
Syrla lL has acLed as an exLenslon of Lhe reglme ln 1unlsla Lhe army was wllllng Lo defecL because
former presldenL 8en All used Lhe pollce as an exLenslon of Lhe reglme and Lhe army sLrongly
resenLed Lhe role of Lhe pollce Moreover ln counLrles where Lhe sLaLe ls weak and does noL en[oy
Lhe monopoly of vlolence reglme change causes sLaLe collapse ln Llbya reglme fallure has
generaLed a collapse of Lhe sLaLe apparaLus fuelllng pollLlcal opporLunlsm and causlng a dlvlslon
wlLhln Lhe army beLween loyallsLs Lo Caddafl's reglme and supporLers of Lhe popular wlll
121

Meanwhlle Lhe role of Lhe army ln Lhe posLrevoluLlonary and LranslLlon perlod ls already
apparenL ln LgypL where Lhe mlllLary has been rullng Lhe counLry slnce Mubarak's ousLlng 1he
currenL vlcepresldenL prlme mlnlsLer and defence chlef are led by Lhe armed forces Palf of Lhe
cablneL members are from Lhe mlllLary and Lhe counLry ls sLlll ruled by marLlal law and mlllLary
courLs ln Lhls Lhe army ls sLlll ln flrm conLrol of Lhe counLry and ln a poslLlon Lo dlcLaLe Lhe Lerms of
Lhe LranslLlon Lo democracy
122
As of Lhls wrlLlng Lhousands of LgypLlans have once more gaLhered
ln Lhe sLreeLs of Calro Lo proLesL agalnsL Lhe mlllLary's slow process of lmplemenLlng reforms
arllamenLary elecLlons have been scheduled for CcLober 2011 and lL sLlll remalns Lo be seen
wheLher Lhe army wlll surrender lLs powers


120
Weber (1964) p134
121
8evoluLlon Splnnlng ln Lhe Wlnd'(2011) hLLp//wwweconomlsLcom/node/18938237?sLory_ld18938237
!uly 22 2011
122
Zakarla (2011) hLLp//wwwwashlngLonposLcom/wp
dyn/conLenL/arLlcle/2011/02/06/A82011020603398hLml !uly 22 2011
[43]

3 What has changed?

1he ma[orlLy of scholars of Mlddle LasLern pollLlcs dld noL foresee recenL revolLs LhaL
overLhrew Lwo Arab leaders aL Lhe beglnnlng of Lhe year and are sLlll LhreaLenlng several oLhers 1he
reglon's demographlc economlc and pollLlcal lssues were well known buL academlcs were mosLly
preoccupled wlLh explalnlng Lhe apparenLly excepLlonal perslsLence of auLhorlLarlanlsm ln Lhe Arab
world unLll recenLly cerLaln Mlddle LasL speclallsLs advocaLed supporL for Arab auLhorlLarlan allles
aL Lhe expense of democracy promoLlon because Lhey embodled sLable beLs for Lhe fuLure 1hese
scholars approached Lhe prospecL of fullfledged democraLlc change wlLh greaL scepLlclsm glven Lhe
seemlngly unshakeable characLer of Lhe reglon's auLhorlLarlanlsm 1oday Lhese scholars admlL LhaL
Lhey were 'specLacularly wrong'
123
Academlcs were noL able Lo predlcL Lhe dlfferenL ways ln whlch
varlous armles would reacL ln face of peaceful popular proLesLs and Lhe wldespread assumpLlon
LhaL Arab mlllLarles and securlLy apparaLuses would never spllL wlLh Lhelr heads of sLaLe was
shaLLered by Lhe evenLs ln LgypL and 1unlsla Slmllarly Cregory Cause argues LhaL Lhe economlc
foundaLlons of auLhorlLarlanlsm were mlslnLerpreLed by academlcs lL was wldely assumed LhaL Lhe
largescale WashlngLon consensussLyle economlc reforms lnLroduced over Lhe pasL Lwo decades ln
Calro and 1unls would provlde new bases of supporL for dlcLaLors lnsLead efforLs Lo promoLe
forelgn lnvesLmenL and lncenLlves Lo sLlmulaLe Lhe prlvaLesecLor creaLed a new class of wealLhy
enLrepreneurs LhaL longed for a [usL and LransparenL governmenL ln facL Lhe face of Lhe LgypLlan
revoluLlon Wael Chonlm was an execuLlve for Coogle Mlddle LasL and norLh Afrlca who declded Lo
rlsk hls career and llfe Lo creaLe Lhe 'We are all khaled Sald' lacebook page whlch helped spark Lhe
revoluLlon ln Lhls academlcs mlssed Lhe desLablllzlng consequences and plvoLal role LhaL poorly
lmplemenLed llberal economlc pollcles could play wlLhln Arab socleLles
1he common pollLlcal and crossborder appeal of Arab ldenLlLy shared by clLlzens llvlng ln
LwenLy dlfferenL counLrles was also overlooked Soon afLer a frulL vendor seL hlmself on flre ln

123
Cause (2011) p82
[44]

proLesL of pollce corrupLlon ln 1unlsla Lhe enLlre Arab world was overcome by revolLs ln Lhe name of
democracy demonsLraLlng a profound panArablsm ln facL when Lhe 1unlslans and Lhe LgypLlans
overLhrew Lhelr corrupL governmenLs Lhey gave hope Lo oLher naLlons LhaL Lhe same could happen
ln Lhelr counLrles 1hese proLesLs have provoked a new panArablsm LhaL of a younger generaLlon
LhaL opposes a common enemy ln Lhe Arab world namely corrupL domesLlc reglmes LhaL have
grown ouL of Louch wlLh Lhelr socleLles 1hus lL has become lncreaslngly dlfflculL Lo approach
counLrles ln Lhe Mlddle LasL lndlvldually glven LhaL evenLs ln one counLry have Lhe poLenLlal Lo
Lrlgger effecLs ln nelghbourlng sLaLes
ln slghL of Lhese new developmenLs Lhe lnLernaLlonal arena can and should acL ln order Lo
conLrlbuLe Lo Lhe creaLlon of effecLlve democraLlc LranslLlons ln counLrles LhaL are already movlng
Lowards reglme change such as LgypL and 1unlsla 1he lnLernaLlonal communlLy should engage ln
safeguardlng lndependenL and wellflnanced prlvaLe organlzaLlons ln Lhe Mlddle LasL LhaL are
essenLlal Lo Lhe success of democraLlc LranslLlons lndeed 'wlLhouL sLrong prlvaLe players wllllng and
able Lo reslsL undemocraLlc forces nascenL Arab democracles could easlly sllp back lnLo
auLhorlLarlanlsm'
124
Cenulne vocal supporL for democraLlzaLlon should be expressed lncludlng Lhe
readlness Lo accepL all groups LhaL comply wlLh democraLlc rules 1he posLrevoluLlon perlod should
be used Lo Leach reformers abouL democraLlc pracLlces and upon requesL Lo asslsL Lhem ln bulldlng
Lhelr lnsLlLuLlons ln provldlng asslsLance WesLern naLlons and parLlcularly Lhe unlLed SLaLes musL
conslder Lhelr lack of credlblllLy ln Lhese counLrles glven Lhelr hlsLory of supporL for auLocraLlc
reglmes ln Lhls efforLs Lo back cerLaln pollLlcal groups or lnfluence elecLlons wlll mosL llkely be
recelved wlLh susplclon Llkewlse flnanclal ald such as LhaL proposed by Lhe Cbama admlnlsLraLlon
LhaL lncludes up Lo $1 bllllon ln debL rellef and anoLher $1 bllllon ln loan guaranLees ls useful ln
order Lo provlde for an effecLlve redlsLrlbuLlon of wealLh wlLhln Arab socleLles and a sLlmulus
package for democraLlc lnsLlLuLlon bulldlng
123
Powever Lhese Lypes of economlc measures musL be

124
kuran (2011) hLLp//wwwnyLlmescom/2011/03/29/oplnlon/29kuranhLml?pagewanLedall !uly 22 2011
123
SLone (2011) hLLp//wwwhufflngLonposLcom/2011/03/18/obamamlddleeasLspeechbllllons
ald_n_863927hLml !uly 22 2011
[45]

carefully lmplemenLed glven LhaL pourlng money lnLo Lhese counLrles before Lhey have bullL an
effecLlve and accounLable democraLlc governmenL wlll llkely encourage corrupLlon and undermlne
Lhe LranslLlon Lo democracy Moreover Lhe communal and panArab characLer of currenL Arab
upheavals demonsLraLes LhaL Mlddle LasL sLudles can no longer be approached on a casebycase
basls 1he exLenL of Lhe Arab Sprlng has shown LhaL evenLs ln one Arab sLaLe can shape oLhers ln
powerful ways 1herefore Lhe lnLernaLlonal communlLy can no longer choose Lo supporL democracy
ln counLrles llke LgypL and 1unlsla whlle 'sLandlng by as oLher allles such as 8ahraln crush peaceful
democraLlc proLesLs'
126

lL ls useful Lo bear ln mlnd LhaL Arab revolLs were noL sparked by pollcy declslons ln
WashlngLon or oLher forelgn caplLals buL LhaL Lhey are Lhe producL of domesLlc soclal economlc and
pollLlcal dynamlcs 1herefore as paradlgms collapse and Lheorles are challenged by conLemporary
evenLs ln Lhe Mlddle LasL academlcs as well as pollcy makers would do well Lo approach Lhe reglon
wlLh greaL modesLy abouL Lhelr ablllLy Lo manlpulaLe lLs fuLure














126
Cause (2011) p 89
[46]

5. Conc|us|on

1he above dlscusslon hlghllghLs LhaL Lhe conLemporary weak sLaLe of democraLlzaLlon ln Lhe
Mlddle LasL ls as much a resulL of lnLernaLlonal lnfluences as of domesLlc forces and calculaLlons lor
decades exLernal and parLlcularly uS pollcles have soughL reglme sLablllLy lnsLead of democraLlc
reform ln Lhe Arab world 1he alm of Lhese pollcles has been Lo assure Lhe unconsLralned flow of
vlLal energy supplles as well as Lo form alllances uslng Lhe Mlddle LasL's sLraLeglc geopollLlcal
slLuaLlon for mlllLary and Lrade purposes Pereln Lhe exlsLence of exogenous renLs derlved from Lhe
exporL of naLural resources and large amounLs of forelgn flnanclal asslsLance has enabled
governmenL ellLes ln Lhe Mlddle LasL Lo become auLonomous from Lhelr socleLles and has
conLrlbuLed Lo Lhe flscal healLh of some counLrles' securlLy and lnLelllgence apparaLuses 1hls sLudy
demonsLraLes LhaL auLhorlLarlan reglmes ln Lhe reglon have proved parLlcularly efflclenL aL
dlsLrlbuLlng forelgn revenues ln a manner LhaL permlLs Lhe concenLraLlon of power ln Lhe hands of a
small group of ellLes Meanwhlle Lhe ellLes have focused on expandlng and malnLalnlng large
coerclve securlLy and lnLelllgence apparaLuses ln order Lo preserve Lhelr auLhorlLy and Lurn
opposlLlon Lo Lhe reglme largely lmposslble As a resulL clvll socleLy ln Lhe Mlddle LasL has suffered
from hlghly lnLruslve and vlolenL lnLelllgence bodles and has long been unable Lo organlze and
express lLs demands for pollLlcal represenLaLlon and [usL governmenL Powever Lhe lncreaslng
lnablllLy of Arab reglmes Lo provlde for baslc servlces and Lhelr lndlfference Lo wldespread
unemploymenL and poverLy has caused profound frusLraLlon wlLhln Arab socleLles provldlng Lhe
lmpeLus for Lhls year's revoluLlons ln addlLlon lnLernaLlonal pressures for democraLlzaLlon largely
moLlvaLed by WesLern securlLy lnLeresLs have lnlLlaLed a few reforms LhroughouL Lhe Mlddle LasL
slnce 2001 1hese have over Lhe years presenLed Arab socleLles wlLh an experlence of whaL
democraLlc governmenL mlghL enLall as well as an undersLandlng of Lhe pracLlces of pollLlcal
parLlclpaLlon and represenLaLlon Slmllarly globallzaLlon has offered clvll socleLy greaLer means Lo
lnform lLself and moblllse
[47]

WhaL comes Lo llghL when sLudylng Lhe progress of democraLlzaLlon ln Lhe Mlddle LasL ls
LhaL Lhe conLemporary pollLlcal geography of Lhe reglon ls far Loo mulLlfaceLed Lo be explalned by a
few selecLed Lheorles As of Lhls wrlLlng Lhe reLurn of people power ln Lhe Arab world has surprlsed
Lhe vasL ma[orlLy of pollcy makers and academlcs AlLhough lL was apparenL LhaL Arab reglmes were
profoundly unpopular among Lhelr socleLles and LhaL Lhey faced serlous demographlc economlc and
pollLlcal problems nobody was able Lo predlcL Lhe Arab Sprlng 1hls year's revolLs draw aLLenLlon Lo
facL LhaL Lhere ls aL leasL as much conLlnulLy as change ln Mlddle LasL pollLlcs 1hey hlghllghL Lhe
popularlLy of Lhe concepL of democracy ln Lhe Mlddle LasL and lnvalldaLe Lhe ldea of a passlve Arab
socleLy LhaL accepLs auLhorlLarlan rule Powever an overLhrow of Lhe undemocraLlc reglme ln place
wlll noL be sufflclenL Lo lead Lo successful pollLlcal change 8evoluLlons are merely Lhe beglnnlng of a
lengLhy progress and lL wlll Lake years for sLable reglmes Lo emerge 1herefore whaL ls essenLlal ln
order Lo brlng abouL democracy ln Lhe Mlddle LasL ls a long Lerm shlfL ln Lhe balance of power away
from Lhe sLaLe and ln favour of socleLy ln Lhe words of Mehran kamrava lL requlres Lhe 'exlsLence of
compeLlng groups scaLLered LhroughouL Lhe pollLy boLh wlLhln Lhe lnsLlLuLlons of Lhe sLaLe and Lhe
sLraLa of socleLy among whom a consensus emerges regardlng Lhe muLually beneflclal naLure of
democracy'
127
lor Lhe Llme belng Lhe young acLlvlsLs of each counLry who have been sharlng ldeas
and LacLlcs across borders are confronLed wlLh dlfferenL challenges lrom Lhe long shadow of
mlllLary rule ln LgypL Lo Lhe wlde dlsparlLles beLween 1unlsla's rural areas and lLs sullen hlnLerlands
and Llbya's wrecked sLaLe Lhls year's Arab uprlslng wlll llkely resulL ln a varleLy of dlfferenL
ouLcomes lor such counLrles as lraq Syrla Saudl Arabla 8ahraln kuwalL CaLar Cman ?emen and
Lhe unlLed Arab LmlraLes were proLesLs have elLher been bruLally cracked down or swlfLly
conLalned Lrue democracy remalns a dlsLanL LargeL
1hls paper has revealed LhaL any examlnaLlon of Lhe sLaLe of democracy ln Lhe Mlddle LasL
musL Lake lnLo accounL Lhe complexlLy of Lhe reglon's pollLlcal slLuaLlon namely Lhe afore
menLloned lnLernaLlonal and domesLlc lnLeracLlon of forces ln slghL of Lhls year's popular

127
kamrava (2007) p 208
[48]

revoluLlons Lhe prospecLs of successful democraLlc LranslLlons ln Lhe Arab world musL equally be
undersLood ln Lhe conLexL of an lnLeracLlon of exLernal and lnLernal forces ln oLher words alLhough
currenL proLesLs were moLlvaLed by domesLlc forces and evenLs Lhey wlll be lnfluenced by Lhe
lnLernaLlonal pollLlcal envlronmenL LhaL surrounds Lhem ln Lhls Lhe lnLernaLlonal arena and
especlally such counLrles as Lhe unlLed SLaLes LhaL have been parLlcularly lmpllcaLed ln Mlddle
LasLern pollLlcs can and should cease Lhls opporLunlLy of change ln order Lo conLrlbuLe Lo effecLlve
democraLlc LranslLlons and sLlmulaLe democraLlc progress ln counLrles LhaL are sLlll sLagnaLlng
LxLernal governmenLs should acLlvely express genulne supporL for democraLlzaLlon and should be
ready Lo accepL all groups LhaL acL ln accordance Lo democraLlc rules 1he posLrevoluLlonary perlod
ln 1unlsla and LgypL parLlcularly should be used Lo Leach reformers abouL democraLlc pracLlces and
upon requesL Lo asslsL Lhem ln bulldlng Lhelr lnsLlLuLlons

uesplLe Lhe obsLacles Lhere ls reason for opLlmlsm regardlng Lhe prospecLs of genulne
democraLlzaLlon ln Lhe Mlddle LasL 1he popular unresLs of Lhe 1980s LhaL had forced several
reglmes Lo allow for more pollLlcal Lransparency have been followed by a wave of unprecedenLed
proLesLs sweeplng Lhe enLlre reglon Lhls year and successfully rlddlng Lhe Arab world from Lwo of lLs
mosL reslllenL dlcLaLors 1he demand for LransparenL and [usL governmenL wlll undoubLedly remaln a
cenLral parL of pollLlcal llfe ln Arab socleLy ln Lhe same way Lhe sLeady dlffuslon of democraLlc
values from oLher parLs of Lhe world wlll perslsL As noLed by Zacek Lhere ls a 'conLaglon' of
democraLlc developmenL evenLs ln some counLrles clearly lmpacL on nelghbourlng ones"
128
ln Lhls
alLhough Loday's experlmenLs wlLh democraLlzaLlon do noL lndlcaLe a compleLe break wlLh Lhe pasL
and an effecLlve LranslLlon Lo more LransparenL governmenL a profound deslre for more
accounLable and [usL governmenL wlll remaln across Arab socleLles Many of Lhe dlfflculLles faclng
democraLlzaLlon ln Arab counLrles are slmllar Lo Lhose faced by oLher parLs of Lhe world 1here ls
Lherefore no reason Lo assume LhaL Lhese obsLacles wlll prove lnsurmounLable ln Lhe Mlddle LasL ln

128
Zacek (1993) p 237
[49]

Lhls whlle Lhere wlll lnevlLably be seLbacks on Lhe paLh Lo democracy Arab governmenLs wlll slowly
be obllged Lo be more accounLable Lo Lhelr clLlzens 1hus one lmporLanL seL of quesLlons LhaL arlses
when assesslng Lhe progress of democraLlzaLlon ln a reglon LhaL has hlsLorlcally denled lLs clLlzens
pollLlcal parLlclpaLlon perLalns Lo Lhe sorL of governmenL LhaL wlll emerge from Lrue pollLlcal
accounLablllLy Wlll Lhe norms and sLrucLures of democraLlc sysLems ln Lhe Mlddle LasL be slmllar Lo
Lhose assoclaLed wlLh Lhe WesL or wlll a dlfferenL klnd of democracy emerge perhaps one LhaL ls
parLlcularly Arab or lslamlc? WhaL models of governance wlll be used and whaL broad domesLlc and
forelgn pollcy goals wlll be expressed? llnally are democraLlc reglmes ln Lhe Mlddle LasL llkely Lo
express dlfferenL forelgn pollcy ob[ecLlves from Lhose of Lhelr more auLhorlLarlan counLerparLs and
wlll democracy conLrlbuLe Lo Lhe resoluLlon of Lhe Arablsraell confllcL?













[50]

8|b||ography

8ooks
8ekkers vlcLor Ceske ul[ksLra ArLhur Ldwards and Meno lenger eds (2007) ovetoooce ooJ tbe
uemoctotlc ueflclt Assessloq tbe uemoctotlc leqltlmocy of ovetoooce ltoctlces (AldershoL
AshgaLe ubllshlng)

8raLLon Mlchael and nlcolas van de Walle (1997) uemoctotlc xpetlmeots lo Aftlco keqlme
@toosltloos lo compototlve letspectlve (Cambrldge Cambrldge unlverslLy ress)

8rown naLhan and Lmad Shahln (2009)@be 5ttoqqle ovet uemoctocy lo tbe MlJJle ost keqloool
lolltlcs ooJ xtetool lollcles (London 8ouLledge)

8rownlee !ason (2007) Aotbotltotloolsm lo oo Aqe of uemoctotlzotloo (Cambrldge Cambrldge
unlverslLy ress)

8rynen 8ex 8aghaL korany and aul noble eds (1993) lolltlcol llbetollzotloo ooJ uemoctotlzotloo
lo tbe Atob wotlJ volume 1 1heoreLlcal erspecLlves (London Lynne 8lenner ubllshers)

8urnell eLer 8lchard ?oungs eds (2010) New cbolleoqes to uemoctotlzotloo (new ?ork
8ouLledge)

CenLre for Luropean SLudles (2008) ctossloq 8tlJqes uemoctotlzotloo lo tbe MlJJle ost ooJ o
cbtlstloo uemoctotlc Apptoocb (8russels CenLre for Luropean SLudles)
Colcaud !eanMarc (2002) leqltlmocy ooJ lolltlcs A coottlbotloo to tbe 5toJy of lolltlcol klqbt ooJ
lolltlcol kespooslblllty (Cambrldge Cambrldge unlverslLy ress)

uahl 8oberL and lan Shaplro and !ose Chelbub eds (2003) @be uemoctocy 5ootcebook
(MassachuseLLs lnsLlLuLe of 1echnology)

Carnham uavld (1993) uemoctocy wot ooJ leoce lo tbe MlJJle ost (lndlana lndlana unlverslLy
ress)
[51]


Cause Cregory (1994) ll Moootcbles uomestlc ooJ 5ecotlty cbolleoqes lo tbe Atob olf 5totes
(new ?ork Councll on lorelgn 8elaLlons)

Perb Mlchael (1999) All lo tbe lomlly Absolotlsm kevolotloo ooJ uemoctocy lo tbe MlJJle osteto
Moootcbles (Albany n? SLaLe unlverslLy of n? ress)

PunLlngLon Samuel (1991a) @be @bltJ wove uemoctotlzotloo lo tbe lote @weotletb ceototy
(norman unlverslLy of Cklahoma ress)

PunLlngLon Samuel (1996) @be closb of clvlllzotloos ooJ tbe kemokloq of wotlJ tJet (new ?ork
Slmon and SchusLer)

kamrava Mehran (2011) @be MoJeto MlJJle ost A lolltlcol nlstoty 5loce tbe lltst wotlJ wot
(London unlverslLy of Callfornla ress)

kedourle Lllle (1992) uemoctocy ooJ Atob polltlcol coltote (WashlngLon WashlngLon lnsLlLuLe for
near LasL ollcy)

aLal 8aphael (1973) @be Atob MloJ (new ?ork Scrlbner)

osusney Marsha and Mlchele AngrlsL (2003) Aotbotltotloolsm lo tbe MlJJle ost keqlmes
ooJ keslstooce (8oulder CC Lynne 8lenner)

rzeworskl A Alvarez M Chelbub ! A and Llmongl l (2000) uemoctocy ooJ uevelopmeot
lolltlcol keqlmes ooJ cooomlc wellbeloq lo tbe wotlJ 19501990 (Cambrldge Cambrldge
unlverslLy ress)

8oss Mlchael (2001b) @lmbet 8ooms ooJ lostltotloool 8teokJowo lo 5ootbeost Aslo (Cambrldge
Cambrldge unlverslLy ress)
8ubln 8arry (2002) @be @toqeJy of tbe MlJJle ost (Cambrldge Cambrldge unlverslLy ress)
Sharabl Plsham (1988) Neopottlotcby A @beoty of ulstotteJ cbooqe lo Atob 5oclety (new ?ork
Cxford unlverslLy ress)
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Shora nawar (2009) @be AtobAmetlcoo nooJbook A olJe to tbe Atob AtobAmetlcoo ooJ
Mosllms wotlJs (SeaLLle Cune ress)
1ouralne Alaln (1997) wbot ls uemoctocy (8oulder CC WesLvlew ress)
Weber Marx (1964) @be @beoty of 5oclol ooJ cooomlc tqoolsotloo (London lree ress)

Art|c|es and Chapters |n 8ooks
Anderson Llsa (2001) 'Arab uemocracy ulsmal rospecLs' wotlJ lollcy Iootool vol 18 no 3 pp
3360

Anderson Llsa (2011) 'uemysLlfylng Lhe Arab Sprlng arslng Lhe dlfferences beLween 1unlsla LgypL
and Llbya' lorelgn Affalrs vol 90 n3 pp 27

Arlas Cscar (2011) 'CulLure MaLLers 1he 8eal CbsLacles Lo LaLln Amerlcan uevelopmenL' lorelgn
Affalrs vol 90 n1 pp26

8elasco Amy (2011) '1he CosL of lraq AfghanlsLan and CLher Clobal War on 1error CperaLlons Slnce
9/11' cooqtessloool keseotcb 5etvlce C8S 8eporL for Congress 8L33110 pp 139

8ellln Lva (2004) '1he 8obusLness of AuLhorlLarlanlsm ln Lhe Mlddle LasL LxcepLlonallsm ln
ComparaLlve erspecLlve' compototlve lolltlcs vol 36 no2 pp 139136

8rumberg uanlel (2002) 'uemocraLlzaLlon ln Lhe Arab World? 1he 1rap of Llberallzed AuLocracy'
Iootool of uemoctocy vol 13 no 4 pp 3668

CaroLhers 1homas and Marlna CLLaway (2003) 1he new democracy lmperaLlve ln 1homas
CaroLhers and Marlna CLLaway eds uocbotteJ jootoey ptomotloq Jemoctocy lo tbe MlJJle ost
(WashlngLon uC Carnegle LndowmenL for lnLernaLlonal eace 2003) pp 112

ualacoura kaLarlna (2003) 'uS democracy promoLlon ln Lhe Arab Mlddle LasL slnce 11 SepLember
2001 a crlLlque' lotetootloool Affolts vol 81 no 3 pp 963979

[53]

uesal 8a[ Anders Clofsgard and 1arlk ?ousef (2009) '1he Loglc of AuLhorlLarlan 8argalns'
cooomlcs lolltlcs vol 21 no 1 pp 93123

ulamond Larry (2002) '1hlnklng AbouL Pybrld 8eglmes' Iootool of uemoctocy vol 13 no 2 pp
2133

ulamond Larry (2010) 'Why are Lhere no Arab democracles?' Iootool of uemoctocy vol 21 no 1
pp 93104

uoran Mlchael ScoLL (2011) '1he Pelrs of nasser' lotelqo Affolts vol 90 no 3 pp 1723

LhLeshaml Anoushlravan and SLeven WrlghL (2007) 'ollLlcal change ln Lhe Arab oll monarchles
from llberallzaLlon Lo enfranchlsemenL' lotetootloool Affolts vol 83 no 3 p 913932

Lssam Lluln Camal (2004) '8roLherhood SLeps lnLo Lhe lray' AlAbtom lssue no 681
hLLp//weeklyahramorgeg/2004/681/eg3hLm lasL accessed !une 10 2011

Cause Cregory (1993) '8eglonal lnfluences on LxperlmenLs ln ollLlcal LlberallzaLlon ln Lhe Arab
World' ln 8ex 8rynen 8ahgaL korany and aul noble eds lolltlcol llbetollzotloo ooJ
uemoctotlzotloo lo tbe Atob wotlJ (London Lynne 8lenner ubllshers) pp 283306

Cause Cregory (2011) 'Why Mlddle LasL SLudles Mlssed Lhe Arab Sprlng 1he MyLh of AuLhorlLarlan
SLablllLy' lotelqo Affolts vol 90 no 4 pp 8190

CledlLsch k S and Ward M u (2006) 'ulffuslon and Lhe lnLernaLlonal conLexL of democraLlzaLlon'
lotetootloool tqoolzotloo vol 60911933

ColdsLone !ack (2011) 'undersLandlng Lhe 8evoluLlons of 2011 Weakness and 8eslllence ln Mlddle
LasLern AuLocracles' lotelqo Affolts vol 90 no 3 pp 816

Paass 8lchard (2003) '1oward CreaLer uemocracy ln Lhe Musllm World' @be wosbloqtoo Ooottetly
vol 26 no3 pp137148

[54]

Paass 8lchard (2011) '1he Arab Sprlng Pas Clven Way Lo a Long PoL Summer' lloooclol @lmes !uly
6 2011

Peydemann SLeven (2007) 'upgradlng AuLhorlLarlanlsm ln Lhe Arab World' 5oboo ceottet Aoolysls
lopet no 13 pp 138

PunLlngLon Samuel (1991b) 'uemocracy's 1hlrd Wave' Iootool of uemoctocy vol 2 no 2 pp 12
34

lbrahlm Saad Lddln (1993) 'ollLlcal LlberallzaLlon and uemocraLlzaLlon ln Lhe Arab World An
Cvervlew' ln 8ex 8rynen 8ahgaL korany and aul noble eds lolltlcol llbetollzotloo ooJ
uemoctotlzotloo lo tbe Atob wotlJ (London Lynne 8lenner ubllshers) pp 2960

lbrahlm S Lddln (2004) 'An Cpen uoor' wllsoo Ooottetly vol 28 (Sprlng 2004) pp 3646

lnLernaLlonal Labour CrganlzaLlon lLC (2006) 'Clobal LmploymenL 1rends for ?ouLh' pp132

Lynch Marc (2004) 'ShaLLerlng Lhe ollLlcs of Sllence" SaLelllLe 1elevlslon 1alk Shows and Lhe
1ransformaLlon of Arab ollLlcal CulLure' Atob kefotm 8olletlo (Carnegle LndowmenL for
lnLernaLlonal eace) vol2 no 11 pp23

Mahdavy Posseln (1970) 'aLLerns and roblems of Lconomlc uevelopmenL ln 8enLler SLaLes 1he
Case of lran' ln MA Cook ed 5toJles lo tbe cooomlc nlstoty of tbe MlJJle ost (Cxford
Cxford unlverslLy ress 1970) pp 428467

MlnlsLry of lorelgn Affalrs Saudl Arabla (2007) 'Saudl 8uslness Women ConLrol 21 of klngdom
lnvesLmenLs' ulplomot lssue 6 March 2007 p64

noland Marcus (2003) 'Lxplalnlng Mlddle LasL AuLhorlLarlanlsm' Worklng apers lostltote fot
lotetootloool cooomlcs vol 3 no 3 pp 127

Ckruhllk Cwenn (1999) '8enLler WealLh unruly Law and Lhe 8lse of Lhe CpposlLlon 1he ollLlcal
Lconomy of Cll SLaLes' compototlve lolltlcs vol 31 no3 pp293313

[55]

ayne !ames (2009) 'Maklng Lhe World Safe for Muddle 1he Meanlng of uemocracy ln Amerlcan
lorelgn ollcy' @be loJepeoJeot kevlew vol 14 no 4 pp 601610

erllnl CaLerlna (2011) 'WhaL are Lhe mosL lmporLanL reasons for Lhe democracy deflclL" ln Lhe
Mlddle LasL and whaL are Lhe mosL powerful drlvlng forces for democraLlzaLlon?' klng's College
London lnLernaLlonal ollLlcs of Lhe Mlddle LasL Lssay no2

8oss Mlchael (2001a) 'uoes Cll Plnder uemocracy?' wotlJ lolltlcs vol 33 no3 pp 323361

8oss Mlchael (2008) 'Cll lslam and Women' Ametlcoo lolltlcol 5cleoce kevlew vol 102 no1 pp
107123

Saghla Pazem (2001) 'Arab volces for Change and rogress' ln olnoyot lebruary 21 2001
1ranslaLlon ln Mlddle LasL Medla 8esearch lnsLlLuLe no 198 March 27 2001

Sharp !eremy (2006) 'uS uemocracy romoLlon ln Lhe Mlddle LasL 1he lslamlsL ullemma' C8S
8eporL for Congress pp 128

ShehaLa ulna (2011) '1he lall of Lhe haraoh Pow Posnl Mubarak's 8elgn Came Lo an Lnd' lotelqo
Affolts vol 90 no 3 pp 2632

WaLerbury !ohn (1997) 'lrom Soclal ConLracL Lo LxLracLlon ConLracLs 1he ollLlcal Lconomy of
AuLhorlLarlanlsm and uemocracy' ln !ohn LnLells ed lslom uemoctocy ooJ tbe 5tote lo Nottb
Aftlco (8loomlngLon lndlana unlverslLy ress) pp 141176

Wllllamson 1 (2008) '1he good socleLy and Lhe good soul laLos 8epubllc on leadershlp' @be
leoJetsblp Ooottetly vol 19 no4 pp 397408

?om Sean and Mohammad AlMomanl (2008) '1he lnLernaLlonal dlmenslons of auLhorlLarlan
reglme sLablllLy !ordan ln Lhe posLCold War era' Atob 5toJles Ooottetly vol30 no1 pp3960

Zacek !ane Shaplro (1993) 'rospecLs for uemocraLlc 8ule' lo ueptb A Iootool fot voloes ooJ pobllc
lollcy vol 3 no 1 pp 237277

[56]


Web S|tes
Anderson Llsa (March 23 2011) 'Arab World ollLlcal unresL' Carnegle LndowmenL for
lnLernaLlonal eace hLLp//wwwcspanarchlvesorg/program/WorldupshowlullAbsLracL1
!uly 4 2011
Anderson (!uly 13 2011) hLLp//wwwscrlbdcom/doc/60377334/LlsaAndersonL28094
uemocracyAuLhorlLarlanlsmand8eglmeChangelnLheArabWorld !uly 2011
Arab League 1he League of Arab SLaLes' hLLp//wwwarabde/arablnfo/leaguehLm !uly 22 2011
8ush Ceorge W (2003) '8emarks by resldenL Ceorge W 8ush' hLLp//wwwnedorg/georgew
bush/remarksbypresldenLgeorgewbushaLLhe20Lhannlversary 10 !une 2011
Congresslonal 8esearch Servlce (2009) 'lorelgn Ald An lnLroducLory Cvervlew of uS rograms and
ollcy' hLLp//fpcsLaLegov/documenLs/organlzaLlon/124970pdf pp 1213 !uly 22 2011
larley !onaLhan C (March 1993) 'Algerla uemocracy 'on hold'' cootempototy kevlew
hLLp//flndarLlclescom/p/arLlcles/ml_m2242/ls_n1326_v262/al_13810337/?LagmanLle_sklnco
nLenL AugusL 04 2011
kuran 1lmur (2011) '1he Weak loundaLlons of Arab uemocracy' @be New otk @lmes
hLLp//wwwnyLlmescom/2011/03/29/oplnlon/29kuranhLml 10 May 2011
lngleharL 8onald and lppa norrls (2003) '1he 1rue Clash of ClvlllzaLlon'
hLLp//wwwhksharvardedu/fs/pnorrls/AcrobaL/lngleharL20lorelgn20ollcypdf 10 May
2011

Llberal uemocracy and lLs LlmlLs' hLLp//wwwcolgaLeedu/porLaldaLa/lmagegallerywww/2ead3faf
98344baab99b2ca2ff42a930/lmageCallery/Lhemepdf !uly 22 2011

Louer Laurence (!une 2011) '8ahraln's naLlonal ulalogue and Lhe Lverueepenlng SecLarlan ulvlde'
Atob kefotm 8olletlo hLLp//carnegleendowmenLorg/2011/06/29/bahralnsnaLlonaldlalogue
andeverdeepenlngsecLarlandlvlde/mxw 4 !uly 2011

erlolreeman Sam (2009) 'Arms 1ransfers Lo Lhe Mlddle LasL' unlul8 Sl8l 8ackground aper
hLLp//wwwunldlrorg/pdf/acLlvlLes/pdf3acL463pdf 10 May 2011
[57]


opham eLer (lebruary 2011) '1he prlce of food ls aL Lhe hearL of Lhls wave of revoluLlons' @be
loJepeoJeot hLLp//wwwlndependenLcouk/news/world/afrlca/LheprlceoffoodlsaLLhe
hearLofLhlswaveofrevoluLlons2226896hLml !uly 4 2011

opulaLlon 8eference 8ureau (2007) '?ouLh ln MLnA'
hLLp//wwwprborg/pdf07/youLhlnMLnApdf !uly 4 2011

'8lce calls for MldLasL uemocracy' (2003) 88C news hLLp//newsbbccouk/2/hl/4109902sLm 10
!une 2011

SLlgllLz !oseph and Llnda 8llmes (2010) '1he Lrue cosL of Lhe lraq War' @be wosbloqtoo lost
hLLp//wwwwashlngLonposLcom/wpdyn/conLenL/arLlcle/2010/09/03/A82010090302200hLml
10 !une 2011

SLone Andrea (2011) hLLp//wwwhufflngLonposLcom/2011/03/18/obamamlddleeasLspeech
bllllonsald_n_863927hLml nofflost wotlJ !uly 22 2011

uS ueparLmenL of SLaLe (2010) '8ackground noLe LgypL' 8ureau of near LasLern Affalrs
hLLp//wwwsLaLegov/r/pa/el/bgn/3309hLm 10 May 2011

?erkes Sarah (2004) '1he Mlddle LasL arLnershlp lnlLlaLlve' 1he 8rooklngs lnsLlLuLlon
hLLp//wwwbrooklngsedu/papers/2004/1129mlddleeasL_wlLLesaspx 10 !une 2011

Zakarla lareed (2011) 'LgypL's 8eal arallel Lo lran's 8evoluLlon'
hLLp//wwwwashlngLonposLcom/oplnlons/LherealegypLlran
parallel/2011/02/06/A8C8b3L_sLoryhLml !uly 22 2011

'Arab Sprlng An lnLeracLlve 1lmellne of Mlddle LasL roLesLs' (!une 2011) @be ootJloo
hLLp//wwwguardlancouk/world/lnLeracLlve/2011/mar/22/mlddleeasLproLesLlnLeracLlve
Llmellne 27 !une 2011

'uefense Spendlng ln Mlddle LasL expecLed Lo surpass $100 bllllon by 2014' (!anuary 2010)
hLLp//wwwfrosLcom/prod/servleL/pressreleasepag?docld189276179 !uly 22 2011
[58]


'lreedom ln Lhe World 2011 1he AuLhorlLarlan Challenge Lo uemocracy' (2011)
hLLp//wwwfreedomhouseorg/lmages/llle/flw/llW202011208ookleL_1_11_11pdf !uly 22
2011

'8evoluLlon Splnnlng ln Lhe Wlnd' (!uly 2011) @be cooomlst
hLLp//wwweconomlsLcom/node/18938237?sLory_ld18938237 !uly 22 2011

'Syrla CasualLles mounL ln 8anlyas afLer proLesLers call for Assad reglme Lo fall' los Aoqeles @lmes
(Aprll 2011) hLLp//laLlmesblogslaLlmescom/babylonbeyond/2011/04/syrlabanlyassecurlLy
armsproLesLsln[uredkllledhLml 28 !une 2011

'unu 8eleases Lhe llrsL Arab Puman uevelopmenL 8eporL' (2002) hLLp//wwwarab
hdrorg/publlcaLlons/conLenLs/2002/execsum02epdf 27 !une 2011

'World 8ank ueflnlLlon MLnA'
hLLp//webworldbankorg/W8Sl1L/Lx1L8nAL/CCun18lLS/MLnALx1/0menuk247619page
k146748plk146812LheSlLek23629900hLml !uly 4 2011