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he lasting image most Yankees fans will have of the teams 2010 starting rotation is manager Joe Girardi slowly walking to the mound in Game 6 of the American League Championship Series, tapping his right forearm to signal the bullpen, and taking the ball from Phil Hughes, who bowed his head and went back to the dugout with the somber body language of someone walking the Green Mile. It was the end of a playoff run during which New York starters posted a collective 5.23 ERA, and it marked the end of Dave Eilands tenure as the clubs pitching coach. 2010 certainly wasnt all bad for Yankees starters, as CC Sabathia topped 20 wins, Andy Pettitte pitched well when healthy, and Phil Hughes established himself. But mediocre seasons from A.J. Burnett and Javier Vazquez dragged down the starters overall performance: The Yankees ranked 10th in the American League in ERA and 12th in fielding
independent ERA (FIP), a more skill-based metric than regular ERA that evaluates pitchers on strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed. Its hard to say that a 95-win team had a real weakness, but the Yankees starting rotation was a soft spot for an offensive juggernaut.
Andy Pettittes pick-off move is as devastating today as it was in his rookie year, 1995.
The fastball and curve got a whiff about as often as Nick Swisher frowned, but the cutter was a different story. Table 2 shows the strike and whiff rates on Pettittes pitches, based on PITCHf/x data from the Texas Leaguers website. While Pettitte was effective yet again in 2010, he got a little help from his friends and benefitted from some Houdini-like escapes with runners on base, as witnessed by his ERA being far better than his 3.85 FIP. Table 2: Andy Pettitte 2010 Pitching
Pitch Fastball Cutter Curveball Change-up Strike % 64.8 65.8 67.0 52.8 MLB Avg. 60-64 68.3 58.0 60.9 Whiff %* 2.6 22.9 6.1 9.7 MLB Avg. 5-6 8.8 12.1
Photo this page: Al Bello/Getty Images Upper photo on previous page: Stephen Dunn/Getty Images
Sabathia induced more ground balls this year on all three of his main pitchesfastball, slider and change-up. Ground balls are a positive for a pitcherits pretty hard for a batter to get an extra-base hit on a Baltimore Chop, and runners that do get on base might be eliminated by another grounder. Sabathias double play rate (the percentage of the time he got a twin-killing with a runner on first base and less than two outs) was 16% last season, the highest mark of his career and well above the major league average of 11%.
10.5
*Whiff % is calculated from total pitches thrown, not just pitches swung at.
Pettittes .295 batting average on balls in play was 20 points lower than his career average. This is at least partially due to the Yankees excellent defense: New York ranked second in the majors in Defensive Efficiency, the percentage of balls put into play that are converted into outs. He also stranded 77.3% of the base runners he allowed, considerably better than the 7072% major league average and his career mark of 71.6%. While better pitchers do strand more runners, Pettittes 2010 strand rate was very high and is likely to drop.
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Hit Or Miss
to the rotation in 2010, and the results were promising. He wasnt as lights-out as his 18 wins would suggestHughes received by far the highest run support of any qualified starting pitcher in the majors, 9.7 runs per nine innings. But it was a solid season nonetheless for the 24-year-old. In 176.1 innings pitched, Hughes averaged 7.5 strikeouts and 3.0 walks per nine while posting a 4.19 ERA. Opponents often lofted the ball against Hughes (36.1% ground ball rate), which resulted in his giving up 1.3 homers per nine innings, and his 4.25 FIP matched up quite nicely with his actual mark. Hughes didnt manhandle hitters, with an 8.8% swinging strike rate, but he rarely got behind them. The 6-foot-5 righty threw a first pitch strike 63% of the time, and located 49.9% of his pitches within the strike zone overall, better than the big league average of 46.5%. Hughes doesnt have much of a change-up at this point, and his mid-70s curveball is erratic, but his low-90s fastball and upper-80s cutter get strikes and whiffs, as shown in Table 3. Table 3: Phil Hughes 2010 Pitching
Pitch Fastball Cutter Curveball Strike % 68.2 73.0 53.9 Whiff % 9.1 11.8 5.8
Dont let the win total fool youHughes hasnt become an instant ace. But with some work, he has the talent to approach that level one day.
questioned whether the former Marlin and Blue Jay would be able to hold up physically into his mid-thirties. So far, that hasnt been a problem. But after a so-so first year in pinstripes in 2009, Burnett bombed in 2010. In 186.2 innings, Burnett posted a 5.26 ERA. Some of that Boeing-level ERA is likely due to bad luckhis .319 batting average on balls in play was 22 points above his career average, and his 68.8% rate of stranding runners was about 3% below his career mark. That helps explain why Burnetts FIP (4.83) was lower than his actual ERA. But Burnett isnt getting Ks like he used to, and his usually stellar curveball got creamed. During his big league career, Burnett has struck out 8.2 batters per nine innings, but he saw that number fall to just 7.0 in 2010. Since 2002, FanGraphs shows that Burnett has gotten a swinging strike on 10.1% of his pitches. Last year? 7.9%. Burnetts low-80s curveball is the biggest culprit for his struggles. According to PITCHf/x data from Texas Leaguers, Burnetts deuce got a whiff 16.6% of the time in 2008 and 16.7% in 2009. In 2010, that rate fell to 14.1%. That might not sound so bad, considering the major league average is 11.6%, but those extra curveballs that batters put in play were hit. Hard. Based on PITCHf/x data from Lefkowitzs website and Pavlidiss pitch type averages, Table 4 shows Burnetts opponent slugging percentages on curveballs put into the field of play over the past three seasons. Table 4: A.J. Burnett Curveballs In Play
Year 2008 2009 2010 MLB Avg. Opp Slugging Percentage .464 .381 .533 .512
Can Burnett re-discover his curveball? Thats the $50 million question for Brian Cashman and the Yankees.
A.J. Burnett raises his arms in disbelief after Bengie Molina takes him deep in the ALCS.
All of Vazquezs pitches were in the red, which had fans seeing red. Dont expect a part three to his Yankees career.
In addition to the five fellows listed above, Dustin Moseley, Ivan Nova, and Sergio Mitre got some starting assignments for the Yankees in 2010. In 101.1 combined innings pitched, that trio had a 5.24 ERA and a 5.42 FIP (see Table 6). Moseley, a former Angel who missed most of 2009 with forearm, elbow, and hip injuries, latched on with New York after being non-tendered. A soft-tosser who relies heavily upon his secondary stuff, Moseley is best suited as a middle
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Nova is the more intriguing name. The lithe, 24-year-old righthander increased his strikeout rate at Triple A Scranton/ Wilkes-Barre while showcasing low-90s velocity and a sharp curve during his first taste of the majors. The Yankees briefly lost him to the San Diego Padres in the 2008 Rule V Draft, but he figures to make a positive impact in the years to come as an inexpensive power arm on the teams staff or as trade bait. MSP