The 1996 Mount Everest Tragedy

1. Relying on the book chapter for perception and decision making, describe the role of the
perception biases, “shortcuts”, and errors that the climbers — as individuals and as a
group— made during the 1996 expedition to Mount Everest. Describe at least five biases,
“shortcuts,” or errors. How did each one of them contribute to the tragedy?

Eight individuals lost their lives on May 11, 1996, while climbing Mount Everest, the
highest mountain in the world, including two expedition leaders. This terrible incident was
named the "deadliest day in the mountain's history." Both the survivors and the experts have
worked to identify the tragedy's underlying cause and draw conclusions from it. The Harvard
Business School case study sheds light on the poor decision-making, poor communication, and
outside circumstances that led to the catastrophe.

Overconfidence bias: The mountain climbers overestimated their abilities and underestimated the
risks involved in reaching the summit of Everest. They believed that their planning and training
would enable them to overcome any obstacles. As a result, they took unjustified risks and
ignored warning signs like severe weather and the presence of other climbers trying to reach the
peak at once.

Confirmation bias: Because the climbers already had preconceived notions about what a
successful ascent should involve, they selectively interpreted data to support those expectations.
Data that did not support their theories was ignored, such as the increase in climbers on the
summit and the risk of backups and delays. This confirmation bias prevented them from carefully
analyzing the risks and drawing prudent decisions.

Sunk cost fallacy: The climbers had put a lot of time, money, and effort into the endeavor. The
urge to continue moving forward was great even though there were warning signs that the
situation was growing worse. The sunk cost fallacy had an impact on their decision since they
were reluctant to abandon their investment and accept failure. Because of this, they increased
their risk-taking and continued to climb even when it was clear that the terrain was dangerous.

Groupthink: The climbers were part of a group that was extremely loyal and cohesive. Because
of this homogeneity, the group's efforts to achieve consensus and unity suppressed divergent
opinions and critical thinking. As a result, group members failed to heed warning signs and kept
quiet whenever they noticed potentially dangerous circumstances. The climbers were unable to
adequately assess the dangers and make informed decisions due to groupthink.

Framing bias: The climbers viewed the expedition as a competition or a task to be overcome
rather than as a risky endeavor requiring careful planning and risk management. They focused on
the goal of the summit and the sensation of satisfaction it brought. Because of this framing bias,
they took unnecessary risks and disregarded warning signs that could have stopped the calamity.

The climbers' preconceptions, shortcuts, and errors led to a number of questionable

decisions that contributed to the catastrophe. The choice to continue the climb despite the
dangerous weather and various threats was not based on the group's cohesion and desire to reach
the peak. As a result, they put themselves in danger and became stranded when the weather
turned bad. It is critical to realize that these biases and errors are widespread and are not
exclusive to the Mount Everest climbers of 1996. Anyone can be affected by these pervasive
cognitive biases at any time. It is essential to be conscious of these biases to make wiser choices
and avoid making the same mistakes repeatedly.

2. Briefly, describe what you think is the major cause for the tragedy - or a few of the
various major reasons for the tragedy if you think there are more than one. (Hint: A rank
of importance could be helpful if you see more than one reason.)

The 1996 Mount Everest disaster was caused by a number of factors, including the
climbers' perception biases, omissions, and blunders as well as external factors like the weather.
The following are some of the main causes of the catastrophe, notwithstanding the fact that no
one component can be specifically identified:

Overconfidence and reckless behavior: The climbers exaggerated their abilities and understated
the risks involved in reaching the summit of Mount Everest. They overshot the mark and
disregarded warning signs like severe weather and the presence of other climbers trying to reach
the summit concurrently. The accident was a result of overconfidence and carelessness.

Groupthink: The climbers belonged to an extremely loyal and cohesive group. This coherence
caused the group to stifle critical thinking and dissenting opinions in its pursuit for consensus
and togetherness. As a result, group members failed to act when they saw potentially dangerous
situations and ignored warning signs. The climbers' collective thinking prevented them from
precisely identifying the dangers and making informed decisions.

Cognitive biases: The climbers were affected by a variety of cognitive biases, such as
confirmation bias, the sunk cost fallacy, and framing prejudice. These biases prevented them
from fully weighing the risks and drawing well-informed conclusions. For instance, they ignored
data that conflicted with their preconceived notions of what should be included in a successful
ascent. They also felt pressured to keep going despite signs that the situation was growing worse.

External factors: The weather on Mount Everest was incredibly challenging during the 1996
expedition. As the climbers made their way back to base camp, the mountain was swept by a
violent storm that made it challenging for them to see. This made it difficult for them to navigate,
which resulted in the catastrophe.

Overall, a complex interplay of circumstances, including the climbers' perception biases,

omissions, and mistakes as well as external elements like the weather, contributed to the 1996
Mount Everest catastrophe. Although the exact cause of the disaster cannot be determined,
cognitive biases, overconfidence, and groupthink all played a crucial part.

3. What can we learn from this case about the following topics below? (Discuss various
points or a major lesson from each one of them using theory from their particular chapters)

Following are some lessons learned from the 1996 Mount Everest disaster:
Decision-making and perception: The 1996 Mount Everest disaster is a great illustration of the
significance of omissions, errors, and biases in perception. Two examples of cognitive biases that
had an impact on the climbers' evaluation of the risks involved with the expedition and their
decision-making process are overconfidence bias and confirmation bias. The climbers’
dependence on success-oriented assumptions and mental heuristics prevented them from
understanding the dangers completely and making wise decisions. The climbers took
unnecessary risks and ignored warning signs because of these biases and perception errors,
which contributed to the disaster.

Teamwork: The tragedy on Mount Everest highlights the need of working together in perilous
situations. The climbers belonged to a team that showed great levels of devotion and
togetherness, but this cohesion also gave rise to group mentality, where opposing opinions were
stifled.
The group's capacity to assess risks and make informed decisions was impeded by its incapacity
to think critically and communicate honestly. Effective cooperation requires the creation of a
space where individuals may express their concerns and refute assumptions.

Leadership: The leadership role has a significant impact on the views, attitudes, and decision-
making processes of a team or organization. The Everest expedition's commanders had the power
to influence how the team members perceived their roles, reputations, and relationships with one
another. The climbers' relationships and viewpoints were influenced by the leaders' decisions
about team makeup and decision-making processes. Effective leadership is a fundamental
element in creating a culture that promotes critical thinking, open communication, and
considering alternative ideas.

Personality: Throughout the expedition, the climbers' behavior and decision-making were
influenced by their personalities. Overconfidence and risk-taking behavior were influenced by
personal traits, such as a penchant for experience-seeking or a need for achievement. It is
probable that the personalities of individual group members played a role in the dynamics of
groupthink and the suppression of competing ideas. Risk management can benefit from an
understanding of people's personalities and how they may influence decision-making, which can
also foster effective teamwork.

Conflict: The tragedy on Mount Everest is a sobering reminder that conflict is likely to occur in
high-stress situations. Conflicting goals, opinions, and methods of decision-making may emerge
inside a team or organization. The Everest expedition may have had conflicts between the
climbers' individual goals and the overall safety of the group. For team decision-making and
everyone's well-being, effective conflict management and resolution are crucial.

Important lessons can be learned from the 1996 Mount Everest disaster in terms of
perception and decision-making, teamwork, leadership, personality, and conflict. It focuses on
the importance of admitting biases, promoting open communication, considering other points of
view, and managing risks in high-stakes situations. Effective leadership and cooperation are
essential for reaching well-informed judgments and ensuring the welfare of every team member.