2012

Alberta Provincial Election Tracking Poll

First in a series of weekly tracking ITR polls from Campaign Research self sponsored to measure popular vote by party candidate (ballot question), best premier and other topical issues during the 2012 Alberta Provincial Election campaign. Research design and analysis according to the Market Research and Intelligence Association (MRIA) principles by a Certified Market Research Professional (CMRP)
8 York Street, 2 Floor, Ottawa, ON K1N 5S6
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Greg Dunlop, MBA, CMRP Campaign Research 3/27/2012

Methodology
Sample and Response Random sample of 18,000 households drawn from Alberta residential phone database of 885,250 households. Six question interactive touch response (ITR) poll on Monday March 26th, 2012 between 19:00 and 19:42 pm MT. Of 17,995 households dialed, 7,532 live answer and 924 responded. Respondents under 18 were ineligible to complete the survey (62 respondents). Weighting Raw data was weighted based on age, gender and region based on the following factors: o Profile of age and gender by the three regions (Calgary, Edmonton and Rest of Alberta) in the 2006 Census from Statistics Canada. o Turnout by age and gender based on Elections Canada survey in Alberta. o Overall turnout by region based on the 2008 Alberta Provincial Election. o Adjusted by region to the 2011 Census Population by region o Sample size by age category (3 categories used), gender and region for a total of 18 weighting cells.

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Alberta Provincial Election Weekly Tracking Poll (March 26)

Popular Vote Ballot Question

N = 818 with margin of error +/- 3.4% points 19 times out of 20

N = 667 with margin of error +/- 3.7% points 19 times out of 20

Question: Thinking of provincial politics, if a provincial election was held today which candidate would you vote for? (Provincial party candidates listed)

TM Trademark of Campaign Research Inc.

Alberta Provincial Election Weekly Tracking Poll (March 26)

Popular Vote by Age, Gender and Region

Question: Thinking of provincial politics, if a provincial election was held today which candidate would you vote for? (Provincial party candidates listed)

TM Trademark of Campaign Research Inc.

Alberta Provincial Election Weekly Tracking Poll (March 26)

Best Premier

N = 813 with margin of error +/- 3.4% points 19 times out of 20

Question: Thinking of the leaders of the various Alberta political parties who do you think would make the best premier of Alberta? (Provincial party leaders listed by name)

TM Trademark of Campaign Research Inc.

Alberta Provincial Election Weekly Tracking Poll (March 26)

Support for Oilsands Development

N = 803 with margin of error +/- 3.4% points 19 times out of 20

Question: Thinking of the leaders of the various Alberta political parties, who shows the most support for the oilsands development? (Provincial party leaders listed by name)

TM Trademark of Campaign Research Inc.