Analysis: Kyrgyzstan’s Looming Energy Crisis

UPI, November 21

By John C.K. Daily, UPI International Correspondent

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Western energy companies saw an opportunity to
exploit one of the world's last important hydrocarbon frontiers -- the Caspian. Among the
new nations ringing its shore were Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan; while the former
devolved into a hermitic nation ruled by a "cult of personality," Kazakhstan eagerly
embraced Western capitalism and last year produced more than 1.4 million barrels of oil per
day.

Geographical isolation lessened Western opportunities in the "Stans" farther east -- Uzbekistan,
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. But if Kyrgyzstan lacked hydrocarbon assets, it quickly won plaudits for
its democratic inclinations. But Western applause has faded, and now the country is on the brink of
an energy shortage that threatens this winter to plunge the entire country into frozen darkness.

The CIA states, "Kyrgyzstan is a poor, mountainous country with a predominantly agricultural
economy." The capitalist gravy train has left many Kyrgyz behind -- according to Minister of Labor
and Social Development Uktomhan Abdullayeva, 35 percent of the population now lives below the
poverty line. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs recently
expressed concern about an estimated 700,000 Kyrgyz out of a population of 5.3 million, many of
whom now lack decent shelter and facilities as winter approaches. OCHA's estimate includes
580,000 people it identifies as "food insecure" and 250,000 people at risk because of electricity
and water shortages. OCHA and related U.N. agencies and their non-governmental organization
partners are seeking $18 million in donations to assist Kyrgyz government efforts to develop a
winter response plan to ensure minimum standards of basic services.

The current debacle is a perfect storm of disrupted trading patterns, inept government regulation,
corruption and aging equipment. In 1990, the last full year of Soviet power, 98 percent of Kyrgyz
exports went to other parts of the Soviet Union. Following the collapse of communism, in 1991-
1994 the Kyrgyz government's promotion of electricity brought an increase of 117 percent in
household use.

The epicenter of the Kyrgyz energy crisis is the fact that Kyrgyzstan's 15 hydroelectric stations
generate 92.5 percent of domestically consumed electricity, and the country currently has only
three operating commercial thermoelectric plants. Antiquated Soviet-era equipment and graft mean
that an estimated 45 percent of the country's electricity is either illegally diverted or leaks from the
transmission system.
The implosion of the Soviet Union brought about dramatic change in the regional trading patterns
between the newly independent "Stans." Kyrgyzstan's growing reliance on hydroelectric power and
its position at the headwaters of the Syr Darya, one of the two largest rivers in Central Asia,
exacerbated its relationship with downstream Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, who
were dependent on regular spring and summer water discharges for their agriculture. Over the last
few years, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have increasingly hoarded water in their alpine reservoirs to
generate electricity in the winter, flooding their downstream neighbors.

Both countries have attempted to get their more prosperous western neighbors to agree either to
pay for water or to return energy imports, but no definitive agreement has yet been reached. On
Oct. 18 the deputy prime ministers of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and
Kyrgyzstan met and signed an agreement on the use of water-power resources during the coming
winter and in 2009, but it remains to be seen how the agreement will work in practice.

Kyrgyzstan's largest hydroelectric station is the Kurp-Say facility, which is fed by the Toktogul
Reservoir and is situated in Jalal-Abad province on the Naryn River, the Syr Darya's primary
tributary. Other major hydroelectric facilities are located at Atabashin, Alamedin and Uchkorgon,
but it is Toktogul that is causing the most concern. Five other hydroelectric plants are on the Naryn.
According to Minister of Energy and Fuel Resources Saparbek Balkibekov, Toktogul usually
provides about 40 percent of the national electricity needs, but, in another example of the
government's penchant for secrecy, other sources estimate that Toktogul provides up to 90 percent
of the country's electricity.

Toktogul, currently containing about 9.5 billion cubic meters of water, is at a historic low, as the
volume is less than half the water the reservoir usually holds. Kyrgyz analysts predict that if
Kyrgyzstan operated Toktogul at its normal capacity, its water reserves would run so low that the
facility would shut down sometime around New Year. In consequence, in mid-August the
government instituted eight-hour-long rotating energy cuts in the northern part of Kyrgyzstan,
including Bishkek. Toktogul electricity powers Bishkek's Thermal Energy Center, an aging Soviet
energy complex that Balkibekov unsuccessfully tried to interest foreign investors in purchasing for
$350 million. Electricity rationing is currently being employed throughout the entire country with
outages in some areas lasting up to 11 hours every day.

The political finger-pointing has already begun, with Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiev on Nov.
21 criticizing his Economic Minister Akylbek Japarov and Balkibekov for sounding overly alarmist
and issuing "irresponsible statements." Bakiev had cause to be alarmed, but it was primarily over
his political future; responding to the energy crisis, on Nov. 18 political opposition leaders Azimbek
Beknazarov, Topchubek Turgunaliev, Nurlan Motuev, Anvar Artykov, and former Ombudsman
Tursunbai Bakir uulu held a People's Assembly demonstration protest in Talas in northern
Kyrgyzstan attended by over a thousand people, in response to the previous day's announcement
by Severelektro Director General Talant Raimjanov that the authorities intend to introduce nightly
power blackouts in the capital, Bishkek.
Even if the Kyrgyz government somehow manages to cope during the next few months, the long-
term prognosis is grim. Sapar Orozbakov, director of the Biskek Center for Economic Analysis, is
pessimistic, commenting, "The shortage of electricity will continue for the next two to three years,
even if the Toktogul hydroelectric and other reservoirs are replenished."

Ironically, energy experts estimate that only about 10 percent of Kyrgyzstan's hydroelectric power
potential is currently being exploited and that additional facilities on the Naryn alone could
generate an additional 2,200 megawatts.

All of this is cold comfort to Kyrgyz citizens; if Bakiev's government wishes to avoid another "tulip"
revolution, then it had better come up quickly with a solution to the country's power problems. If
they don't, then the color of Bishkek's next insurrection will be as black as the capital after dark.