Market Outlook

India Research
April 3, 2012

Dealers Diary
Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

The Indian markets are expected to open positive tracking cues from SGX Nifty which is trading higher. However, most of the Asian indices are trading in the negative zone. U.S. markets gained as its index of activity in the manufacturing sector climbed to 53.4 (v/s expectation of 53.0) in March from 52.4 in February, with a reading above 50 indicating growth in the sector. In the meantime, traders largely shrugged off the release of a separate report from the Commerce Department showing an unexpected drop in U.S. construction spending in the month of February. The early weakness on Wall Street was partly due to some disappointing European economic data, with a report from Markit Economics showing a continued contraction in eurozone manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, Indian shares ended higher for a second consecutive session on Monday, as the Reserve Bank of India's surprise move last week to inject additional liquidity into the system continued to buoy demand for bank stocks. Exports imports data for February came in at 4.3% (10.1%) and 20.7% (20.3%) respectively.

BSE Sensex Nifty MID CAP SMALL CAP BSE HC BSE PSU BANKEX AUTO METAL OIL & GAS BSE IT Global Indices Dow Jones NASDAQ FTSE Nikkei Hang Seng Straits Times Shanghai Com

0.4 0.4 1.1 1.7 (0.1) 0.9 1.0 (0.1) (0.3) (0.3) 0.6
Chg (%)

74.0 17,478 22.4 68.4 111.7 (8.8) 67.7 5,318 6,415 6,741 6,617 7,379

119.4 11,871 (5.6) 10,129 (30.5) 11,316 (23.0) 35.6

(Pts)

8,064 6,117
(Close)

0.4 0.9 1.9 0.3 (0.2) 0.2 -

52.5 13,265 28.1 106.4 3,120 5,875

Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 17,464 / 5,309 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 17,545 17,611 / 5,340 5,362 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 17,464 / 5,309 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 17,397 17,316 / 5,287 5,257 levels.
Indices SENSEX NIFTY S2 17,316 5,257 S1 17,397 5,287 PIVOT 17,464 5,309 R1 17,545 5,340 R2 17,611 5,362

26.3 10,110 (33.3) 20,522 5.6 3,016 -

Indian ADRs

Chg (%)

(Pts)

(Close)

INFY WIT IBN HDB

0.6 (0.3) 2.7 1.7

0.3 (0.0) 0.9 0.6

$57.4 $11.0 $35.8 $34.7

News Analysis

Auto sales numbers March 2012 Cement Dispatches March 2012 IVRCL Group bags orders worth `4,081cr Jagran group buys Nai Dunia
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Advances / Declines Advances Declines Unchanged

BSE

NSE

1,932 852 95

1,072 395 51

Net Inflows (March 29, 2012)

` cr FII MFs Purch 3,948 641 Sales 5,248 634 Net (1,299) 7 MTD 7,731 (1,409) YTD 44,028 (5,436)
Volumes (` cr) BSE NSE

2,050 9,254

FII Derivatives (April 2, 2012)

` cr
Index Futures Stock Futures

Purch 1,424 939

Sales 1,232 1,052

Net 192 (113)

Open Interest 9,432 22,140

Gainers / Losers
Gainers Company
PTC India Titan Inds Godrej Inds MRF Bata India

Losers Company
Aurobindo Phar Oil India Pidilite Inds Apollo Hosp Ranbaxy Lab

Price (`)
67 243 274 10,495 810

chg (%)
9.8 6.2 6.1 5.6 5.3

Price (`)
114 495 172 621 457

chg (%)
(4.2) (3.8) (2.9) (2.9) (2.6)

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539

Market Outlook | India Research

Auto sales numbers March 2012

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL)
MSIL reported in-line 3.3% yoy (5.9% mom) volume growth to 125,952 units, backed by strong performance of the recently launched Swift and Dzire. Additionally, pre-budget buying by consumers in anticipation of excise duty hike and availability of additional diesel engines benefited the companys performance. While domestic volumes increased by 2.1% yoy (4.7% mom) to 112,724 units, exports recorded strong 14.7% yoy (17.1% mom) growth to 13,228 units.

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM)

MM reported healthy 13.1% yoy (11.1% qoq) growth in total volumes to 64,893 units, driven by impressive 26.6% yoy (10.2% mom) growth in the automotive segment. However, the tractor segment registered a 12.3% yoy (13.6% mom) decline, as demand in domestic markets (domestic sales down 15% yoy) continued to remain subdued. Within the automotive segment, the passenger UV and four-wheeler pick-up segments grew strongly by 33% (14.5% mom) and 27.7% yoy (8.8% mom), respectively. Automotive exports also registered strong 30.7 yoy growth during the month.

Tata Motors (TTMT)

TTMT reported strong 20% yoy growth in total volumes, led by better-thanexpected sales in the commercial vehicles (CV) and passenger vehicle (PV) segments, which posted strong 17% and 30% yoy growth, respectively. Within the CV space, growth was driven by impressive 37% yoy growth; however, M&HCV sales declined by 6% yoy. In the PV segment, Nano volumes jumped by 20% yoy, while Indica sales grew by robust 65%, led by strong demand for diesel models. The Sumo/Safari/Aria/Venture range also recorded strong 40% yoy growth during the month.

Hero MotoCorp (HMCL)

HMCL reported in-line 2.4% yoy (flat mom) growth in monthly volumes to 528,290 units. Growth momentum was subdued during the month on account of high base of last year and due to the slowdown being witnessed in the twowheeler segment.

TVSL
TVSL reported lower-than-expected volumes for March 2012. The company reported a decline of 4.5% yoy (up 6.1% mom). The decline in volumes was on account of weakness in the motorcycle and scooters segments, which declined by 17.1% and 7.6% yoy, respectively, mainly on account of slowdown in demand and rising competitive pressures. The three-wheeler segment also witnessed a

April 3, 2012

Market Outlook | India Research

drop of 47.6% yoy. Moped sales, on the other hand, maintained its momentum, registering strong 16.1% yoy (8.1% mom) growth.

Cement Dispatches March 2012

For March 2012, ACC reported 7.4% yoy growth in its dispatches to 2.34mn tonnes (mt), aided by capacity addition. Ambuja Cements dispatches grew strongly by 12.3% yoy to 2.18mt in March 2012 from 1.94mt reported in March 2011. JP Associates dispatches also rose by 32.5% yoy to 2.1mt. All-India cement dispatches growth for the past few months has been healthy, mainly driven by strong growth in the northern and western regions. We continue to remain Neutral on ACC and Ambuja Cements.

IVRCL Group bags orders worth `4,081cr

IVRCL Group has bagged orders worth `4,081cr in the transportation and thermal power plant segments. IVRCL Assets & Holdings Ltd (IVRCLAH), a subsidiary of IVRCL Group, has bagged two BOT road projects, which include a `1,617cr project from NHAI for upgrading the existing four-lane divide carriageways into six-lane from Gundugolonu to Rajahmundry section on NH-5 in Andhra Pradesh. The concession period for the project is 24 years, and the construction period is 30 months. Another project, worth `1,586cr from PWD Department of Punjab government, involves upgrading the two-lane divided highways into four-lane from Patiala to Bhatinda section of NH-64. The concession period for the project is 24 years, and the construction period is 30 months. Further, IVRCL has announced its foray into the thermal power plant sector with three projects from public sector unit, NTPC. IVRCL has bagged contracts worth `878cr from NTPC for its thermal power plants in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. The order book of the company now stands at `25,493cr (4.5x FY2011 revenue). Currently, the stock is under review.

Jagran group buys Nai Dunia

Jagran group has bought out Nai Dunia, the Indore-based Hindi daily promoted by Vinay Chhajlani. The deal has been valued at an effective enterprise value of `150cr. According to the Indian Readership Survey (IRS) Q4 report, Dainik Jagran has average issue readership of 16.41mn, making it the most read publication across the country, while Nai Dunia has average readership of 1.64mn. Currently the Jagran group publishes two editions in Madhya Pradesh and the deal provides Jagran an avenue to expand in Central India where Nai Dunia has four editions in Madhya Pradesh and two editions in Chhattisgarh. At CMP, the stock trades at price to earnings multiple of 13.2x FY2013E. We maintain a Buy on the stock with a Target Price of `137.

April 3, 2012

Market Outlook | India Research

Economic and Political News

India rejects Qatar price for LNG Oil PSU directors demand price hike West Bengal raises land holding cap for industry

Corporate News

Reliance Power commissions fourth 300MW unit of Rosa Plant Ranbaxy resumes drug export to US after 4 years KFA staff demand dues, threaten to stop work

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

April 3, 2012

Market Outlook | India Research

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

April 3, 2012