Note Financial Management-II
Note Financial Management-II
Goals and objectives of financial management of public and private sector enterprise
GOALS OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT OF PUBLIC SECTOR ENTERPRISE
Public sector enterprise has an ongoing obligation to build the relationship with Public Bodies to
ensure full compliance with the Public Bodies. Every effort is made to ensure the public bodies
are structured and supported in its goals and objectives through ongoing pursuit of higher service
standards, mutual respect, accountability and transparency.
GOAL 2: Enhance the profitability, compliance, financial sustainability and service delivery of
Public Trading Bodies.
GOAL 3: Enhance the compliance, financial sustainability and service delivery of Public
Beneficial and Mutual Bodies.
(d) To supply activities relating to import-substituting and export-promoting which are essential
for the development of the country;
(e) To develop savings by mobilizing resources with the help of proper public sector prices more
quick than others;
(f) To introduce certain activities to take the benefit of foreign aid and co-operation in the public
sector;
(j) To make a social control on long term capital by supplying the necessary financial assistance
through public financial institutions which are quite justified;
(k) To supply necessary finance for various development programs which are essential for the
development of the country;
(l) To make opportunities for employment and to form a rational society which is absolutely
desired;
(m) To re-distribute incomes either by raising wage levels and checking higher salary level or by
supply outputs at a concessional rate to the poor etc.
(n) To generate surplus resources for future growth and development; and
Examples:
Multinational companies
Big corporations
1. Bureaucratic management: The organizations are run by bureaucrats who may not have
knowledge of running an enterprise or knowledge of the industry trends and practices.
2. Lack of autonomy: These enterprises lack freedom and flexibility. They are subject to the
control of the politicians and bureaucrats. Due to this, their performance is affected.
3. Delayed decisions: Decisions are delayed due to red-tapes and bureaucratic procedures. A
file may have to pass through many officials for approval before a decision can be taken.
By the time a decision is taken, the business environment might have undergone
considerable changes.
4. No clear-cut price policy: There is no clear cut price policy. Certain organization follow a
cost plus price policy, some administered pricing, a few dual pricing followed by those
adopting association pricing. There is no clarity with regard to the price policy.
5. Delays and cost overruns: Due to poor planning, lack of funds, mismanagement etc.
many projects face delays and the consequent cost overruns. It is common to find new
projects being announced without earlier projects being completed.
6. High overheads: Many of these organizations incur high overheads. There is very little
focus on cost control and cost reduction. Wastage of resources are rampant. Many
organizations even maintain entire townships and incur high costs.
7. Over-staffing: The salary costs and pension costs of many of these organizations are high.
It is because government considers these organizations as generators of employment and
many of them are overstaffed.
10. Low capacity utilization: Capacity utilization is very low because of inefficiencies in
management, inefficiencies in processes and procedures and low employee efficiency.
11. Poor profitability: The profitability of the enterprises is quite low due to several
inefficiencies in the way in which they are managed. Many enterprises incur heavy losses
and the government regularly infuses capital to run them.
12. xv. Low quality of output: The output of public enterprises, whether it is a product or a
service, is not of high quality. This is due to lack of investment in technology, low
employee morale, inferior quality of raw materials, poor work culture and lack of quality
focus. Therefore they are not able to compete with the superior quality products and
services offered by the private sector.
2. Growth Rates:
Refers to the percentage change in a variable over time, such as revenue or GDP. Often
expressed as a compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
Example: Profit Rate (PR) = 30,000250,000×100=1.2\frac{30,000}{250,000} \times 100 =
1.2%250,00030,000×100=1.2
4. Inflation Adjustment:
Adjusts financial figures to account for inflation or deflation, ensuring comparability over time.
5. Forecasting Techniques:
Tools used to predict future outcomes. Techniques include:
Delphi Technique: Uses expert feedback in iterative rounds to reach consensus.
Scenario Writing: Presents best, worst, and most likely outcomes.
Subjective Forecasting: Relies on personal opinions and brainstorming, prone to bias.
Time-Series Forecasting: Uses historical data over time to identify trends and patterns
(trend, cyclical, seasonal, irregular).
7. Investment:
The purchase of assets with the expectation of generating future income or profit. In finance, this
often includes stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.
Flat Organizational Structure is commonly used by small companies with fewer than 20
employees. It features minimal management layers, allowing for quick decision-making and
reduced bureaucracy.
Geographical Organizational Structure is suitable for small businesses that operate in multiple
regions. It decentralizes functions such as marketing and finance, placing relevant personnel in
different locations to better address regional consumer preferences. This enhances local
responsiveness and service effectiveness.
What is the financial manager’s goal in selecting investment projects for the
firm? Explain how it helps managers achieve their goal.
The financial manager's primary goal in selecting investment projects for the firm is to maximize
shareholder wealth, which is typically reflected by maximizing the firm's stock price or firm
value.
1. Value Creation:
o Investment projects are chosen based on their potential to generate returns greater
than their costs.
o By selecting projects with positive Net Present Value (NPV), managers ensure
that the firm is investing in opportunities that add value to the business.
2. Efficient Use of Capital:
o Capital is limited, so managers must allocate it to projects that offer the best risk-
adjusted returns.
o This prevents wasteful spending and ensures resources are directed to the most
productive uses.
3. Risk Management:
o Part of project evaluation involves assessing risk.
o Managers aim to take on projects that align with the firm’s risk profile and
strategic goals, helping to protect and grow shareholder wealth over time.
4. Market Confidence:
o Investors closely watch how companies invest their money.
o Smart investment decisions signal good management and sound strategy,
increasing investor confidence and potentially boosting stock prices.
5. Long-Term Growth:
o By continuously selecting value-creating projects, the firm can expand operations,
enter new markets, or improve efficiency—leading to sustained profitability and
growth.
The payback period is the amount of time it takes for an investment to recover its initial cost
from the cash inflows it generates. In simple terms, it tells you how long it will take to get your
money back from a project.
How is it calculated?
Example:
If a project costs $50,000 and returns $10,000 per year:
You add up the cash inflows year by year until the total equals the initial investment.
Example:
Initial investment = $40,000
Year 1: $10,000
Year 2: $15,000
Year 3: $10,000
Year 4: $10,000
Cumulative inflows:
What weaknesses are commonly associated with the use of the payback
period to evaluate a proposed investment?
The process of evaluating and selecting long-term investments that contribute to the firm’s goal
of maximizing owners’ wealth.
o By selecting only those projects that are expected to generate returns higher
than their costs, the firm increases its overall value.
o This directly benefits shareholders by increasing the stock price and long-term
profits.
o Capital is limited. Capital budgeting ensures that the firm uses its funds wisely
and profitably, not on low-return or risky ventures.
o Well-chosen investment projects help the firm expand, enter new markets, or gain
competitive advantages.
4. Risk Management
o Since capital budgeting involves forecasting future cash flows and assessing
future business conditions, it strengthens the firm’s long-term strategic and
financial planning.
o Firms often face multiple investment options. Capital budgeting helps rank these
based on financial metrics like:
Net Present Value (NPV)
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Payback Period
So, the best-value projects are chosen.
Conflicting rankings between NPV (Net Present Value) and IRR (Internal Rate of Return)
happen when the two methods give different preferences for choosing among competing
investment projects.
Projects are mutually exclusive when only one can be chosen (e.g., choosing between two
different machines to buy).
Always choose the project with the higher NPV, because NPV directly measures the
value added to the firm, while IRR can be misleading in such cases
Cash flows are non-conventional when they change signs more than once over the life of the
project.
Example: An investment with outflows (−), then inflows (+), then another outflow (−).
This may result in multiple IRRs, or the IRR may not even exist.
NPV still gives a clear, single value.
What effect do sunk costs and opportunity costs have on a projects net cash
flows?
Sunk Costs
Sunk costs are costs that have already been incurred and cannot be recovered.
Example:
If you spent $100,000 on market research last year, that amount is a sunk cost. It won’t impact
the incremental cash flows from starting a new project today.
Opportunity Costs
Opportunity costs represent the value of the next best alternative foregone by choosing a
particular project.
Example:
If you use a piece of equipment for Project A instead of renting it out to another company (which
would generate $10,000 in cash flow), that $10,000 is an opportunity cost. It reduces the net
benefit of Project A.
Risk refers to the uncertainty or variability in the expected future cash flows of a project.
Because these cash flows are projections, actual inflows or outflows might be different due to
factors like market changes, cost overruns, competition, or economic conditions. This variability
means the project may not deliver the anticipated returns, creating risk for investors or decision-
makers.
2. How determination of the breakeven cash inflow can be used to gauge project
risk?
Breakeven cash inflow is the minimum amount of cash the project must generate to
cover all costs (including investment, operating expenses, and capital costs) without
incurring a loss.
By calculating this breakeven point, you can assess the margin of safety the project has.
If the breakeven cash inflow is very close to the expected cash inflow, the project is
riskier because there is little room for error — even a small shortfall can lead to losses.
Conversely, if the expected cash inflow is much higher than the breakeven point, the
project is less risky because it has a cushion to absorb adverse changes.
What is the difference between the strategic NPV and the traditional NPV?
Do they always result in the same accept-reject decisions?
The difference between traditional NPV and strategic NPV lies in their scope of evaluation.
Traditional NPV (Net Present Value) focuses strictly on the quantifiable and direct financial
cash flows associated with a project. It involves discounting future cash inflows and outflows to
their present value and subtracting the initial investment. If the NPV is positive, the project is
typically considered acceptable because it is expected to add value to the firm.
On the other hand, strategic NPV takes a broader perspective. It not only considers financial
cash flows but also includes strategic benefits that may not be immediately measurable. These
benefits could involve entering a new market, gaining a competitive edge, or creating
opportunities for future profitable projects. Strategic NPV often includes the value of real
options, such as the option to expand, delay, or abandon a project in the future.
Because of this difference in scope, traditional and strategic NPV do not always lead to the
same accept-reject decisions. A project with a negative traditional NPV might be accepted
under strategic NPV if it supports long-term goals or opens up future opportunities. Therefore,
strategic NPV is especially useful when evaluating projects with long-term or intangible
benefits.
How is an investment’s NPV related to the firm’s market value?
An investment’s Net Present Value (NPV) directly impacts a firm's market value. A positive
NPV indicates that the project is expected to generate returns greater than its cost, thereby
increasing the firm’s future cash flows. This leads to a higher intrinsic value, which can raise the
firm’s stock price and market capitalization. In contrast, a negative NPV reduces value. Since a
company’s market value reflects the present value of expected future cash flows, every dollar of
positive NPV theoretically increases the firm’s market value by one dollar, aligning investment
decisions with the goal of maximizing shareholder wealth.
Explain the similarities and differences between NPV, PI, and EVA
How can firms mitigate currency risk and political risk when investing in a
foreign country?
Firms can mitigate currency risk by using financial instruments like forward contracts, options,
and currency swaps to hedge against exchange rate fluctuations. They can also match revenues
and expenses in the same currency, borrow locally, or use natural hedging by setting up local
operations. Diversifying investments across multiple countries also spreads currency exposure.
To manage political risk, firms can buy political risk insurance from organizations like MIGA or
private insurers. Forming joint ventures with local partners, hiring local employees, and sourcing
locally can help build goodwill and reduce government hostility. Including legal protections such
as arbitration clauses in contracts and investing in countries with strong bilateral investment
treaties also reduce exposure. Conducting thorough political risk assessments before entering a
market is essential.
By combining financial hedging with operational and strategic measures, firms can effectively
reduce the impact of both currency and political risks when investing abroad.
Describe the three types of net cash flows for a capital budgeting project.
1. Initial Investment: This is the cash outflow at the beginning of the project, covering
costs such as purchasing equipment, installation, and any required increase in working
capital. It occurs at Year 0 and represents the initial cost to start the project.
2. Operating Cash Flows: These are the yearly net cash inflows generated by the project
during its operational life. They include revenues minus operating expenses, adjusted for
non-cash charges like depreciation. Operating cash flows occur from Year 1 through the
project’s lifespan and indicate the project’s ongoing profitability.
3. Terminal Cash Flow: This occurs at the end of the project and includes cash inflows
from the salvage value of assets and the recovery of working capital. It may also consider
any tax effects related to asset disposal.
Discuss NPV and IRR in terms of conflicting rankings and the strengths of
each approach.
Conflicting rankings of projects frequently emerge from NPV and IRR as a result of differences
in the reinvestment rate assumption as well as the magnitude and timing of cash flows. NPV
assumes reinvestment of intermediate cash inflows at the more conservative cost of capital; IRR
assumes rein vestment at the project’s IRR. Theoretically speaking, the NPV approach is
superior because it does a better job of ranking projects and because it does not suffer from some
of the mathematical quirks that occasionally affect IRR calculations. Even so, many firms use the
IRR approach because it has a very intuitive interpretation and is easy for managers to
understand and to communicate to others.
Investment Accept all projects with positive Only select most profitable projects
Criteria NPV or IRR > cost of capital within budget constraints
Risk Management Less focus on constraints and risk Strong focus on risk and capital
allocation efficiency
Outcome Options are either accepted or Options are ranked from best to
rejected worst
Use Case Filtering based on qualifications Choosing the best among several
or standards acceptable options
Number of Can be many, one, or none All options are evaluated and
Acceptable ranked
Options
Payback Period
Decision criteria
When firms use the payback period to decide whether to accept or reject an investment
opportunity, managers follow this decision rule:
Decision criteria
When managers use the NPV method to decide whether to accept or reject an investment
proposal, the decision rule they follow is:
When managers rely on the IRR approach to accept or reject proposed investments, the decision
rule they apply is:
If the IRR is greater than the cost of capital, accept the project.
If the IRR is less than the cost of capital, reject the project.
Conflicting rankings
Conflicts in the ranking given a project by NPV and IRR, resulting from differences in the
magnitude and timing of cash flows
.Multiple IRRs
More than one IRR resulting from a capital budgeting project with a nonconventional cash flow
pattern; the maximum number of IRRs for a project is equal to the number of sign changes in its
cash flows.
Initial investment: The incremental cash flows for a project at time zero
Operating cash flows: The net incremental after-tax cash flows occurring each
period during the project’s life.
Terminal cash flows: The net after-tax cash flow occurring in the final year of the project
Meaning Cash flows during the life of the Cash flow at the end of the project
project
When it Every year or regularly during the Only at the end (last year) of the
happens project project
Example Cash earned from sales each year Money received from selling
machines at the end
Importance Shows the project's ability to Shows final return and closing value
generate cash while running
Explain how the terminal cash flow is calculated for replacement projects.
Terminal Cash Flow Calculation for Replacement Projects
When a company replaces an old asset with a new one, the terminal cash flow at the end of the
replacement project's life includes several components related to the old and new assets.
The initial investment is the total upfront cash required to acquire a new asset,
considering both the costs associated with the new asset and the proceeds from disposing
of the old one.
Explain how to use each of the following inputs to calculate the initial
investment: (a) cost of the new asset, (b) installation costs, (c) proceeds from
the sale of the old asset, (d) tax on the sale of the old asset, and (e) change in
net working capital.
1. Cost of the New Asset: This is the purchase price of the new asset. Example: Cost of new
asset: $325,000
2. Installation Costs: These are additional expenses incurred to make the new asset operational,
such as transportation, setup, and testing costs. Example: Installation costs: $5,000
3. Proceeds from the Sale of the Old Asset: This is the amount received from selling the old
asset. It is a cash inflow that reduces the total initial investment. Example: Proceeds from sale
of old asset: $200,000
4. Tax on the Sale of the Old Asset: When selling an old asset, taxes may be due on any capital
gains. The capital gain is calculated as the difference between the sale price and the book value
of the old asset.
Example:
5. Change in Net Working Capital (NWC): This represents the additional investment in
current assets (like inventory or receivables) required for the new asset. An increase in NWC is
an outflow, while a decrease is an inflow. Example: Increase in NWC: $1,500,000
Initial Investment = (Cost of New Asset + Installation Costs) − Proceeds from Sale of Old
Asset + Tax on Sale of Old Asset + Change in NWC
Net working capital: The difference between the firm’s current assets and its
current liabilities.
Change in net working: Capital The difference between the change in current
assets and the change in current liabilities.
Dividends Policy
1. Definition: A stock is considered "cum dividend" when it is trading with the right to
receive the next dividend payment.
2. Entitlement: Buyers of a stock "cum dividend" are entitled to the upcoming dividend,
even if they sell the stock before the payment date.
3. Timing: The "cum dividend" status exists until the ex-dividend date.
Ex-Dividend:
A dividend policy refers to a company’s strategy about how much profit to distribute to
shareholders as dividends and how much to retain for reinvestment. The key objectives of a
sound dividend policy include:
1. Maximizing Shareholder Wealth: The primary goal is to maximize the value of the firm and
enhance shareholder wealth.
2. Providing Stable and Predictable Returns: A stable dividend policy builds investor
confidence by offering a predictable income stream, especially for income-focused investors.
3. Ensuring Adequate Retained Earnings: The policy ensures the company retains enough
profits to fund: Future expansion, Research and development and Debt repayment.
4. Maintaining a Balance Between Dividends and Growth: A good policy maintains a balance
between rewarding shareholders (dividends) and reinvesting in the company (growth).
5. Signaling Financial Health: Dividends often serve as a signal to the market about the
company’s profitability and financial stability.
The declaration of dividend policy means a company officially announces how much profit it
will give to shareholders as dividends. This decision is made by the board of directors and shared
with investors. The company also gives important details like the amount of dividend, the record
date (who will get it), and the payment date (when it will be paid). Declaring a dividend shows
that the company is earning well and helps build trust with shareholders.
Theories of dividend policy
1. Residual Theory:
A company should first use its profits to invest in projects with positive NPV (Net
Present Value). Dividends should be paid only if there’s leftover profit after all good
investment opportunities are funded.
2. Traditional View: This theory says that dividends do affect the value of a company.
A proper balance between dividends and growth can increase the share price, as
investors care about both incomes now (dividends) and future returns (growth).
Retained earnings
Retained earnings are the most important single source of finance for companies, and financial
managers should take account of the proportion of earnings that are retained as opposed to being
paid as dividends.
Retained earnings are a flexible source of finance; companies are not tied to
specific amounts or specific repayment patterns.
Using retained earnings does not involve a change in the pattern of shareholdings
and no dilution of control.
Retained earnings have no issue costs.
Shareholders may be unhappy because retaining earnings means they get less or no
dividend payments.
Retaining profits is not free — if dividends were paid, shareholders could invest that
money themselves and earn a return. So, the company giving up dividends has an
opportunity cost.
The case in favour of the relevance of dividend policy (and against MM's
views)
Tax Differences: Different tax rates on dividends and capital gains may make investors prefer
one over the other.
Capital Rationing: When companies have limited access to funds, retaining earnings is better
than paying dividends.
Imperfect Markets: Since it may be hard to sell shares at a fair price, some investors prefer
regular dividends to get cash for other investments.
Transaction Costs: Selling shares to get cash involves costs. So, investors prefer receiving
cash as dividends.
Lack of Information: Shareholders may not fully know the company’s future plans or profits.
Even if forecasts are shared, they may not be trusted.
Preference for Certainty: Investors usually prefer a certain, current dividend over uncertain
future gains, as the future is unpredictable.
Working Capital refers to the portion of a firm’s assets used in daily operations. It includes
items like cash, inventories, and accounts receivable, which regularly convert from one form to
another in the normal business cycle.
Working capital refers to the short-term funds required to sustain daily business operations. It is
characterized by:
Current Liabilities:
Includes payables (creditors), accruals, short-term loans, and other obligations due within
a year.
Ensures liquidity – It helps businesses meet short-term obligations like wages, supplier
payments, and taxes on time.
Supports profitability – Excess funds trapped in working capital earn little; optimizing
it can boost returns.
Is critical for survival – Many profitable companies fail due to poor short-term cash
flow management.
Balance between liquidity & efficiency – Too little working capital causes overtrading,
while too much leads to inefficiency or over-capitalization
Current Assets: Assets expected to be converted into cash or used up within a year. These
include:
Cash and Cash Equivalents: Liquid assets readily available for use.
Prepaid Expenses: Payments made in advance for goods or services to be received in the
future.
1. Liquidity: Ensuring the business has sufficient short-term assets to meet its short-term
obligations as they fall due. This involves maintaining adequate levels of cash, inventory, and
receivables to avoid financial distress.
2. Profitability: Maximizing the return on assets by efficiently utilizing resources. This involves
optimizing the use of current assets to generate sales and profits, thereby enhancing shareholder
wealth.
o High Liquidity: Holding more cash or liquid assets ensures the ability to meet
short-term obligations but may result in lower returns, as these assets often earn
minimal interest.
Example: Offering extended credit terms to customers can increase sales (profitability)
but delays cash inflows, affecting liquidity.
2. Optimizing Profitability: Efficient use of current assets (like inventory and receivables)
ensures that funds are not tied up unnecessarily, allowing for better returns on
investments.
3. Managing the Working Capital Cycle: Controlling the time between paying suppliers
and receiving cash from customers to maintain liquidity and profitability.
5. Strategic Decision Making: Making informed choices about inventory, credit policies,
and payment terms to impact financial health.
Explain the cash operating cycle and the role of accounts payable and
accounts receivable
Cash Operating Cycle (Cash Conversion Cycle)
The Cash Operating Cycle measures the time it takes for a company to convert its investments
in inventory and other resources into cash flows from sales. It's calculated as:
Where:
Impact on Cash Operating Cycle: Longer receivables days increase the cycle, tying up
cash for longer periods.
Management Strategies:
Impact on Cash Operating Cycle: Longer payables days can extend the cycle, but
excessive delays may harm supplier relationships.
Management Strategies:
o Evaluating the benefits of discounts for early settlement and bulk purchases.
Retailers maintain low inventory levels due to quick product turnover, minimizing capital tied up
in stock. Manufacturers require higher working capital to manage larger inventories, including
raw materials and finished goods, to support production processes.
2. Accounts Payable
Retailers often pay suppliers after selling goods, sometimes using supplier credit, which helps
maintain liquidity. Manufacturers typically pay suppliers promptly to maintain good
relationships, impacting cash flow.
3. Accounts Receivable
Retailers receive immediate payment from customers (cash or card), resulting in minimal
accounts receivable. Manufacturers and wholesalers often extend credit to customers, leading to
longer receivable periods and a greater need for working capital.
Why is working capital management one of the most important and time-
consuming activities of the financial manager? What is networking capital?
Working capital management is important because it deals with managing the firm's current
assets and current liabilities, which are essential for day-to-day operations. These items
constantly change, requiring continuous monitoring and quick decision-making. Effective
management ensures the firm maintains sufficient liquidity, avoids insolvency, and maximizes
firm value. Because of the frequent and unpredictable nature of cash flows, it becomes one of
the most time-consuming tasks for financial managers.
Net working capital is the difference between the firm’s current assets and its current liabilities.
When current assets exceed current liabilities, the firm has positive net working capital. When
current assets are less than current liabilities, the firm has negative net working capital.
1. If a company knows when and how much money is coming in (predictable cash
inflows), it doesn’t need to keep a lot of extra cash or assets on hand.
→ So, it needs less net working capital.
2. But if a company can’t predict its cash inflows, it needs to keep more cash or assets
ready just in case.
→ So, it needs more net working capital.
How Net Working Capital, Liquidity & Risk of Insolvency are Related
Net working capital (NWC) is the difference between what a company owns short-term
(current assets) and what it owes short-term (current liabilities).
If a company has positive NWC, it has more assets than debts → this means good
liquidity (easy to pay bills).
Good liquidity means the company is less likely to go bankrupt (low risk of
insolvency).
If NWC is negative, the company may not have enough to pay its short-term bills → low
liquidity, and higher risk of insolvency.
Profitability: Profitability refers to the relationship between the revenues and costs generated by
using the firm’s assets (both current and fixed) in productive activities.
1. Increasing revenues, or
2. Decreasing costs.
3. Decreasing costs.
Risk: In working capital management, is the chance that the firm will be unable to pay its bills
when they are due. A firm that cannot meet its payments on time is considered insolvent.
Generally, the greater a firm’s net working capital, the lower its risk of insolvency. In other
words, more net working capital means the firm is more liquid, which reduces the risk of
becoming insolvent.
1. Expected Return (Mean): The average return considering all possible outcomes and
their probabilities.
2. Variance: Measures how much returns deviate (spread out) from the expected return.
3. Standard Deviation: The square root of variance—this provides a risk measure in the
same units as return, making it more intuitive.
The risk premium is the extra return investors expect to earn for taking on additional risk
compared to a risk-free investment.
1. Calculate the average return of the risky asset (e.g., stock market returns) over a
period.
2. Calculate the average return of the risk-free asset (e.g., government T-bills) over the
same period.
3. Subtract the average risk-free return from the average risky return.
What is a normal distribution? How does it help to interpret standard
deviation?
Normal distribution is a probability distribution that is symmetric and bell-shaped. It shows
how data (such as returns on securities) are spread around the average (mean) value. Most values
cluster near the mean, with fewer observations as you move farther away on either side.
Standard deviation measures the spread or variability of data around the mean. In a normal
distribution:
About 68% of values lie within ±1 standard deviation from the mean.
Currency risk occurs in three forms: transaction exposure (short-term), economic exposure
(effect on present value of longer-term cash flows) and translation exposure (book gains or
losses).
Happens when a company changes foreign money amounts into its own currency for
reports.
Exchange rate changes can make profits or assets look bigger or smaller on paper, but no
real money is lost or gained.
If exchange rates change before payment, the company may lose or gain money when
paying or receiving.
Happens when exchange rate changes affect the company’s business in the long run.
It can make the company less competitive or change future profits because of changes in
prices and demand abroad.
Causes of Exchange Rate Changes
(i) Balance of Payments
If a country sells more goods to other countries than it buys (trade surplus), its currency
value usually goes up.
If it buys more than it sells (trade deficit), its currency value usually goes down.
If prices rise faster in one country than another, that country’s currency tends to lose
value so things cost the same in both places.
Countries with higher interest rates may see their currency weaken over time to balance
returns between countries.
This idea links price levels, interest rates, and exchange rates together—they all affect
each other.
Compare inflation rates: higher inflation means currency will likely fall in value.
Look at interest rates: higher interest rates usually mean the currency will weaken
compared to others.
Make the buyer pay in your currency so you don’t face exchange risk.
Match your foreign currency payments and receipts to cancel each other out and reduce
risk.
Agree now to exchange money later at a fixed rate so you know exactly what you’ll get
or pay.
Use loans and deposits in different currencies to protect yourself from rate changes.
Balance your foreign currency debts and assets to naturally reduce risk.
Some methods are simple but pass risk to others (like currency of invoice).
Some methods need good planning and can save money (like netting and matching).
Swaps: Exchange currencies now and swap back later to manage long-term risks.
Risk management involves the policies and techniques a business uses to handle potential risks.
Although entrepreneurship inherently involves risk, businesses still aim to manage it for two
main reasons:
(a) To reduce exposure to risks to an acceptable level, which varies based on factors like
the business’s size and the risk tolerance of its owners or shareholders.
Interest rate is the cost of borrowing money or the reward for saving it. It is usually shown as a
percentage of the amount borrowed or saved.
Gap Exposure:
Gap analysis measures a firm's interest rate risk by comparing interest-sensitive assets and
liabilities based on their maturity dates. Two types of gaps can arise:
Liquidity Preference Theory: Investors want higher returns for locking money away
longer.
This creates an upward-sloping yield curve (long-term rates > short-term rates).
(f) Expectations Theory:
If rates are expected to fall, short-term rates might be higher, causing a downward-
sloping yield curve.
So, the yield curve reflects supply and demand in each segment.
Long-term loans usually have higher interest rates than short-term ones. This is shown by a
graph called the yield curve, which normally goes up as time increases.
If people expect interest rates to rise, long-term rates will go up. If they expect rates to fall,
long-term rates might be lower. The yield curve changes based on these expectations.
People prefer short-term loans because they want quick access to their money. So, they ask for
more interest when lending for a longer time.
Different people invest in different time periods (short, medium, or long). They usually don’t
switch between them, so each part of the market has its own interest rate.
1. Using fixed interest loans — so their payments stay the same even if rates change.
2. Using floating loans — which can be cheaper if rates go down, but risky if rates go up.
3. Swapping interest payments with another company (interest rate swap) — for example,
trading fixed payments for floating ones or the other way around.
4. Making agreements to fix rates in advance (forward rate agreements) — so they know
what interest they will pay or receive in the future.
5. Using options like caps and floors — caps stop rates going too high, floors stop them
going too low.
Interest rate futures are contracts that help protect (hedge) against changes in interest rates
between now and when a loan’s interest rate is fixed.
If you are a borrower worried that interest rates will rise, you can sell interest rate
futures. This protects you from paying more later.
If you are a lender worried that interest rates will fall, you can buy interest rate futures.
This protects your income from going down.