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Global Palm Oil Production Market estimates indicate Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) production in 2010 at similar

levels as 2009, in the region of 1718 million tonnes (mt), although adverse weather conditions like El Nino could curtail production in H210. Furthermore, the Malaysian government backed replanting programme could further lower production by up to 0.5mt in 2010. Yet, with the palm trees recovering from bad weather, yields are expected to improve in 2010. In Indonesia, CPO production is expected to be marginally higher than in 2009 (around 20mt). However, with global palm oil demand rising faster than supply primarily driven by India and China, which have significant edible oil deficits palm oil prices are likely to remain firm in 2010. Palm oil prices have been rangebound at between MYR2,200 and MYR2,600 since mid 2009. However, seasonal variations will continue, eg in H210 during the soya harvest season. Fitch notes that soya and palm oil prices have traditionally moved in tandem, with soya trading at a premium to palm.

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