An Analysis of climate change risk on run-of-river hydropower schemes: a case study of Sunkoshi river basin, Nepal

Binaya. K. Mishra
27th April, 2012

Outline
What is run-of-river hydropower? Objective Study area Observed hydro-climatic trends Observed versus projected climate Impact analysis Adaptation options

Renewable Energy Sources

Hydropower Wind energy Oceanic energy Solar power Geothermal Biomass

Hydropower
Hydropower uses moving water to producing electricity.

P=(1000*9.81)Q
Inexpensive Less pollution

Types of Hydropower
Impoundment

Diversion or run-of-river systems

Objective
There is a worldwide consensus that climate change is a real, rapidly advancing and widespread threat. This is a crucial issue in Himalayan and special in Nepal because of its possible impact on water resource, biodiversity, and consequence on economic growth of the region.

This study analyze climate change risk in an Himalayan river basin consisting of several existing/under-construction run-of-river type hydropower schemes.

Study area

Sunkoshi river basin

Drainage area = 10171 km2 (u/s of Khurkot stn)

Source: ICIMOD

Kids at risk due to GLOF in Sunkoshi river at Khadichaur, Nepal

Sunkoshi river upstream of Dolalghat

Growth of Tsho Rolpa Glacier Lake (1957 to 2000)

Source: ICIMOD)

Observed average monthly discharges

Observed monthly discharges

Observed annual minimum discharges

Observed and projected average monthly precipitation

Decrease in dry season precipitation by 18%

Increase in monsoon precipitation by 6%

Observed and projected average monthly temperature

Increase in temperature by 1.5 to 4.6 C

Potential Climate change impacts

Decreasing lean season flow (due to smaller precipitation and depleting snow coverage) will cause further reduction in hydropower production.

Increased wet season precipitation (leading to increased river discharges) will have no positive impact on hydropower output as there is no water shortage issue in monsoon months. Instead, increasing floods may damage power stations/ equipments.

Potential Climate change impacts

Landslide blocking the stream will prevent electricity generation

Natural dam at Lamabagar in Tamakoshi river

Potential Climate change impacts

Landslide blocking road access to the power sites will create problem in smooth operation/maintenance of hydropower plants

Potential Climate change impacts

Extreme flood events due glacier lake outburst

Namche micro-hydropower site damaged by Dig Tsho GLOF in 1985

Potential Climate Change Impacts

Local community livelihood will be largely affected by changing climate (e.g., lesser water supply to agricultural/ domestic use, lesser crop yield) Increased irrigation water demand will reduce/complicate release of water for hydropower production

Adaptation options
Better GLOF early warning system
Detail flood risk assessment in the study area Monitoring landslide risks Provide support to local farmers for the systems better irrigation

Actively support the development of alternative agricultural practices and crops