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Universal CLV CAC Forecaster DeepGuide v2

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MUNIM
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
32 views16 pages

Universal CLV CAC Forecaster DeepGuide v2

Uploaded by

MUNIM
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Industry Benchmarks & Defaults (Editable)

Business Type Default Margin Default Monthly ChurnDefault Purchase Freq


SaaS (B2B) 80.0% 2.5% 1.00
SaaS (B2C) 75.0% 3.5% 1.00
E-commerce (DTC) 45.0% 5.0% 0.30
Marketplace (Niche) 60.0% 4.0% 0.25
Local Services (SMB) 65.0% 3.0% 0.15
Brick & Mortar Retail 40.0% 5.0% 0.25
Restaurant/Café 30.0% 6.0% 0.40
Agency/Consulting 55.0% 2.0% 0.10
Online Course / Info Product 80.0% 4.0% 0.10
Mobile App (IAP) 70.0% 6.0% 0.30
Media / Ad-Supported 65.0% 7.0% 0.20
B2C One-time Product 50.0% 8.0% 0.10
Subscription Box (DTC) 55.0% 6.0% 1.00
Creator / Digital Download 85.0% 5.0% 0.10
Coaching/Consulting (Solo) 60.0% 2.0% 0.08
Local Solo Service 65.0% 3.0% 0.12
Dropshipping (DTC) 35.0% 8.0% 0.10
Affiliate / Content Site 90.0% 7.0% 0.15
Solopreneur (New B2C Product) 55.0% 8.0% 0.10
B2B Project Services 60.0% 2.0% 0.05
Event/Ticketing 35.0% 12.0% 0.05
Nonprofit/Donations 90.0% 5.0% 0.10
Custom/Other 50.0% 5.0% 0.20
Default Conv Rate Default CPC Default CPM Default CTR
3.0% $8.00 $20.00 2.0%
2.0% $5.00 $14.00 2.0%
2.0% $1.00 $10.00 1.5%
2.0% $1.50 $12.00 1.5%
5.0% $3.00 $15.00 2.0%
3.0% $2.00 $12.00 2.0%
3.0% $1.50 $10.00 2.0%
7.0% $10.00 $25.00 2.0%
3.0% $2.50 $12.00 2.0%
2.0% $1.50 $8.00 1.5%
2.0% $1.00 $6.00 1.5%
2.0% $1.50 $10.00 2.0%
2.0% $1.50 $12.00 2.0%
3.0% $2.00 $8.00 2.0%
6.0% $12.00 $30.00 2.0%
5.0% $3.00 $15.00 2.0%
2.0% $1.80 $12.00 1.8%
2.0% $0.80 $6.00 2.0%
2.0% $1.80 $12.00 2.0%
6.0% $15.00 $30.00 2.0%
3.0% $2.00 $10.00 2.0%
3.0% $1.20 $8.00 2.0%
3.0% $2.00 $12.00 2.0%
Default AOV
$100.00
$15.00
$60.00
$40.00
$120.00
$45.00
$25.00
$1,500.00
$120.00
$12.00
$5.00
$35.00
$45.00
$25.00
$800.00
$150.00
$40.00
$5.00
$30.00
$5,000.00
$75.00
$50.00
$50.00
Universal CLV/CAC Forecaster — Deep Guide (v2)

Purpose & Notes

This version fixes any input coordinate mismatch. Use blue cells; blanks use Business Type defaults.

Cell Map (double-check quickly)


C10 Items per Order (non-subscription)
C11 Website Conversion Rate (visitor→customer)
C12 CPC (optional)
F6 CPM (optional)
F7 CTR (optional)
F8 Starting Customers
F9 Other Monthly Opex (non-marketing)
F10 Marketing Budget Growth % / month
F11 Monthly Churn % (optional)
F12 Monthly Purchase Frequency (optional)
C13 Annual Discount Rate %

Worked Example (Random B2C — verified addresses)

1) C6 Business Type: B2C One-time Product


2) C7 Budget: 1000
3) C8 Price: 40; C9 Unit Cost: 18 → Margin auto ≈ 55%
4) C10 Items per Order: 1
5) Leave C11 (CR), C12 (CPC), F6 (CPM), F7 (CTR) blank to use defaults
6) Optional: F8 Start Cust: 0; F9 Opex: 200; F10 Growth: 0.05
7) C13 Discount: 0.10
8) Review CLV, CAC, LTV:CAC, Payback, Profit/Loss; open Monthly Forecast for break-even.
(v2)

ess Type defaults.

ak-even.
Add Logo / Brand
CLV & CAC Dashboard (Beginner Mode)
Beginner Wizard — Minimal Inputs (leave blank to use defaults)

CPM (optional)
CTR (optional)
Starting Customers
Other Monthly Opex (non-marketing)
Marketing Budget Growth % / month
Monthly Churn % (optional)
Monthly Purchase Frequency (optional)
Annual Discount Rate %

Auto-Derived & Defaults (🔒 protected)

Default Margin 🔒 0.0%


Default Churn (mo) 🔒 0.0%
Default Purchase Frequency (mo) 🔒 0.00
Default AOV 🔒 $0.00

Results Summary (auto)

AOV (auto) $0.00


Margin (auto) 0.0%
Monthly Purchase Frequency (auto) 0.00
Monthly Churn (auto) 0.0%
Conversion Rate used (auto) 0.0%
CPC used (auto) $0.00

CLV (∞-horizon approx) 🔒 $0.00


LTV:CAC 🔒 0.00
Payback Months (approx) 0.00

Profit/Loss (Year 1 Forecast) $0.00


Break-even Month 0.00
Brand • Logo

% Complete 0.0%

Default Conv Rate 🔒 0.0%


Default CPC 🔒 $0.00
Default CPM 🔒 $0.00
Default CTR 🔒 0.0%

Retention r (auto) 🔒 0.0%


Monthly Discount (d_m) 🔒 0.0%
CAC (auto) 🔒 $0.00

New Customers (est.) 0.00


ARPU (AOV × Freq) $0.00

Traffic Light (LTV:CAC) 0


o
12-Month Forecast (auto from Beginner Wizard)

Month Marketing Budget CAC (used) New Customers Start Customers


Jan 2025 $0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00
Feb 2025 $0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00
Mar 2025 $0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00
Apr 2025 $0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00
May 2025 $0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00
Jun 2025 $0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00
Jul 2025 $0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00
Aug 2025 $0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00
Sep 2025 $0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00
Oct 2025 $0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00
Nov 2025 $0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00
Dec 2025 $0.00 $0.00 0.00 0.00
End Customers ARPU Revenue Margin % Gross Profit
0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0.0% $0.00
0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0.0% $0.00
0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0.0% $0.00
0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0.0% $0.00
0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0.0% $0.00
0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0.0% $0.00
0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0.0% $0.00
0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0.0% $0.00
0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0.0% $0.00
0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0.0% $0.00
0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0.0% $0.00
0.00 $0.00 $0.00 0.0% $0.00
Other Opex Operating Profit Cumulative Profit Notes
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00

Year 1 Cumulative Pr $0.00


Break-even Month (fi 0.00
Automated Diagnostics — Issues, Why They Matter, and What To Do

Issue Status

Price below cost (negative margin) 0


Conversion Rate invalid (not 0–1) 0
CPM/CTR given but CTR = 0 0
CAC missing or zero with budget > 0 0
Churn unrealistic (≤0% or ≥100%) 0
Payback > 12 months 0
LTV:CAC < 1 (negative unit economics) 0
LTV:CAC 1–<3 (marginal) 0
Year-1 cumulative profit negative 0
Why this matters Recommended Fix
Selling at or below cost destroys gross profit and Raise price, reduce COGS, trim discounting; revisit
CLV.
Invalid CR breaks CAC calculation; planning becomes value
Enter proposition.
as decimal (e.g., 0.025). If unknown, leave
unreliable. blank
Without CTR, CPC cannot be derived from CPM; CAC Provide forCTR
defaults.
or remove CPM and use CPC or
becomes infinite. defaults.
Budget ÷ CAC estimates new customers; zero CAC Provide CPC/CR or CPM/CTR or select a Business
explodes
Churn must volumes unrealistically.
be within 0–100% monthly; outside Type to load defaults.
breaks Enter decimal
CLV. strains cash and increases risk when Lower
Long payback CAC (CRO,(e.g., 0.04). If unknown,
targeting), use defaults.
increase ARPU (AOV ×
scaling paid marketing. freq), improve margin.
Reduce CAC; raise AOV/margin; fix activation &
You lose money per acquired customer. retention; pause [Link], onboarding; scale only
Optimize pricing/COGS,
Scaling may be risky until efficiency improves. best channels.
Cut CAC, raise pricing, phase spend, or target
Cash burn may exceed tolerance; runway risk. higher-intent channels first.

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