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Scully Reviewed work(s): Source: Managerial and Decision Economics, Vol. 15, No. 5, Special Issue: The Economics of Sports Enterprises (Sep. - Oct., 1994), pp. 403-411 Published by: John Wiley & Sons Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2487990 . Accessed: 25/05/2012 16:52

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79. standarddeviations. Survivalanalysis is utilizedto in measurecoachingtenureprobabilities these sportsand coachingtenureis shownto be relatedto managerialefficiency. That this is done with is greatvariability illustratedby the high turnover of managers and head coaches throughout the historyof sports. is presented. The constraintset facing them is constant across clubs and is time invariant. compete under the same rules.basketball (5.44). termineand narrowthe rangeof individual To the extent that individualsseem to matter frequently it is associated with an institutional attribute such as monopoly.the residualstrictlydepends on the abilityof owner-managersto controlshirking within a team production setting (Alchian and Demsetz. 403-411 (1994) Managerial Efficiency and Survivability in Professional Team Sports Gerald W.In baseballand basketballfor all coaches the averagetenure has been about three years. may vary for reasons other than managerial performance. Public organizations.share a commontechnology. In Fig. Tests of differences in the means reveal that tenure is longer in . Tenure is somewhat longer in football. VOL. The sociologistsbelieve that individualmanagerial effort matterslittle to the successof organizations. institutional constraints predechoice.Private firms have no obligation to reveal internaldata.02).and so on. 5. 1972. and 14. about 4. 1.cf. sole firm operating in extremelycomproprietorship petitive markets. 4. The means.MANAGERIAL AND DECISION ECONOMICS. 2.39. 1937). 2. Coase. Sportsoffers a good vehicle for testing some of the issues arising from this controversy. The objectiveof the manageris to transforma set of relative offensive and defensive playing skills into club victories.15. and 10. University Texas Dallas. Fewer than 10% survive for a decade or more. CCC0143-6570/94/050403-09 ? 1994by John Wiley & Sons. and football (6.51). 1965). Measures of managerialefficiencyare constructedfor baseball.Economists in and fans know that this is not true in sports. the sample employed in the statistical analysis that follows. managerial competence and malfeasanceis a main issue in the marketfor corporatecontrol(Manne.02).Also. Measuresof corporateperformance.basketballand footballcoaches. 1 the distributionsof tenure for all coaches with two or more years of tenure.58. 15. Economists believe that individualsare paramountto organizational success. Scully Schoolof Management.TX.44.63. rather. stock prices.USA The at of Studentsof organizational sociologytend to believethat managerialefficiency less to has do with individualtalent than with the environment which firms operate. use the same units of input skills. A lack of empiricalevidence has made it difficult to sort out the validityof these competing hypotheses.Field managersand coaches are crucial to the performance of clubs.63. Even in the case of the classical. 6. and 5. making it difficultto link managerialqualityand firm perbaseball than in basketball (t = 2.The firmsare identicalin manyrespects:they produce identical outputs. They differ in marketsize and have different owners and managersat any moment of time. many orgameasurably nizations are rather complex entities.63. other than that requiredby such as law.44.skewnesand kurtosis(in that order) for tenure in each of the sports is as follows:baseball(6.Also. employthe same productionfunction. INTRODUCTION sociologists and economists think Organizational in differently aboutthe role of management firms.2 years.produce ambiguousoutputs. but not in formancedirectly. such as the military or bureaucracies. Ltd.

60). in which output (wins).1989). the problem of separation of manager). The kurtosis of tenure is most pronouncedin basketball. the these agent deficienciesis a reduced residual to coach expends the efficient level of effort. duced with a randomproductivity meathat correspondsto some multidimensional sure of team playingtalent. Histograms by sport. If the lem. The skewness of tenure is highest in baseball. malfea. tenure is longer in football than in basketball (t = 1. both risk neutral. Consider a simple production process. the standard construction of the problem. In In monitoring costs. football (t = 0.If.but the principalcannot observe the of in organizations.5- 0 E Football IL All Sports c-I 0D 20 40 60 Years 0 20 40 60 Figure 1. SCULLY Baseball Basketball . The link between the win recordand profit is well known(Scully.this is the The line segment e*(f) may be thought of as the or owner(s)-manager owner(s)-headcoach prob. have the same ownershipfrom control is that it leads to a possi. yield higher In levels of the manager'sexpectedperformance.68). E. and coachingor manager effort. Increased player productivity.404 GERALDW. the principal.efficiencyfrontier or the productionfrontier for parameter if.all levels of the productivity . managerial shirking.knowledge about the random productivity ble misalignment goals of principalsand agents parameter. e*(f). W. construct meaefficiencyand link these measures of managerial sures to tenure using survivalanalysis. In this paper we develop a simple model of managerial effort or efficiency. e. and/or increasedcoachingeffort.In the context of sports. the principal(owner) and the agent (head coach or For economists.the deterministic case W= E+f.The ideal outcome sance and incompetencemay exist. THE OWNER-MANAGERPROBLEM IN SPORTS ager or head coach is fewer games won than would be possiblewith the playingtalent at hand and managed with maximumeffort and competence. The effect of for the owneris that for all realizationsof if. as in team sports. The effect of a reduced effort by the man. i1. a worldwith informationand realizationof if or the level of agent effort. is proparameter.Managerial efficiencyis found to be a good predictorof managerialsurvival.

More formally. An incrementin manage.both long and short durations.durationat time t for the exponentialdistribution rial efficiency by increasing wins increase club iS profit. As a result. the principalloses a residualper unit equal to ment of time. In The correspondinghazard.S.E.the hazard rate. Each owner can monitor the effort or efficiencyof his coach compared The correspondingdensity function (instantais: of neous probability) to others. the level of coaching The corresponding functionsare: qualitywill tend to rise over the owner'stenure.one owner dealingwith one The exponentialdistributionmay be an inadeagent in a vacuum. A) 1 1-exp(-Akt)p regularlyscheduledbasis.Ti).the ratio e/e* functionsare: only partly measures managerialeffort or efficiency. Sports is a most data-riddenbusiness.q) and F(WI.ownerswill learnby f(t.Higher levels of coaching effort de(2) Aef(t. This empirical of the manager. events (continuationor survivalversus failure or distribution.each club owner has to decide issue will be discussedbelow. F.(W IE.Averageownership in team sports is about eleven years. For any specificationof a series of effort or efficiency.termination) termsof a probability equivalentspecification imized by extractingthe most wins from the ros. and survival.Thus. is with that playing talent are determinedby how the instantaneousprobability the event occurof efficientlythe managertransformsplayingtalent ring at time t. If the probabilityof durationis time indebeginningof the season. A) 1-F(t.the question of the shape of the distribution is an empirical matter. replaced by its density function and associated neous probability) is: cumulativedistributionfunctions:f(WIE. W is The corresponding density function (instantatic. A) e-Akt This characterizationof the principal-agent problemis static . ment from bad. If the probabilityof durationis time indeowners will employ about three or four head pendent and Weibull. over time. Inferred from this argument is that competent (3a) H(t. Part of the lost output may be due to (3) A)] A H(t. A. in From the owner'sperspective. A) dF t Ap(At)P exp(-AktP) (2a) experience and distinguish good field managehazard. In a dynamicsetting of the quate representation. throughobservation the performanceof his/her club and other clubs Fd and throughhiringand firing.the costs in terms of a hazardfunction or a survivorfuncof fielding playing talent i1 are incurredat the tion.That is. so most tion. the ratio e/e* or 0. which is time interval(t.ownerslearn about the level of manage. more or less playingthe same set of competitorson a (l a) F(t. The probability distribution of duraInformationis widespreadand cheaply obtained. tion at time t for the Weibulldistribution is Clubscompetewith one anotherin leagues.MANAGERiAL EFFICIENCY AND SURVIVABILITY PROFESSIONAL IN TEAM SPORTS 405 coach shirksor is incompetentand expendseffort how efficient his or her manager is at any moof e1. A) = kp( kt)pl managerswill tend to survivelonger and incompetent or shirking coaches will be fired more (4a) S(t. H. 1 (4) S(t. The probability durationin the = 01. The probabilitydistributionof into club victories. is a measure of manager at time t. the case of stochasticproduction.In the main. A) =f(t. randomfactorsbeyondthe agent'scontrol.when the sample contains problem. A)/[l1-F(t. and survival. Ap(At)P-1.there is a mathematically ter of playingtalent fielded.In this case. In fact. The revenuesassociated pendent and exponential. A) 1-e-At The simple productionprocess may be stochasrather than deterministic. (1) F(t. A) exp(-AktP) frequently. 0ti. t + At) is conditionalon duration elel* in the unit interval. the hazard rate is coaches. S. H. A) dF/dt crease the probabilitythat smaller levels of output will be realized. the tenure Weibull distributionmay be a better representarial effort or efficiency. .In this case.profits are max. 4i) < 0. The length of managerial tenure shouldbe related to the effort level or efficiency Largely.

The ability of such teams to adjust their offense and defense at halftimepartlymeasures head coachingability. n.Scoring(runs in baseball.minimizgoal is achievedby maximizing that relaing opponent scoringand transforming tive scoringproductioninto wins. runningback yards per carry. Then the team win per cent for the regularseason. offensive rebounds. The win percentage is bound between 0 and 1 and. hit and run.).With the specification the independent variablein relativeratherthan absoluteform the varianceis constant. SCULLY THE EMPIRICAL MEASUREMENT OF MANAGERIALEFFICIENCY By definition.5). the last quarterof a close game head coaches make near-continuousplaying adjustments and play-calls.assists and turnovers.Defensive skills mainly are pitching and fielding. etc.g. i oj. the jump shot and 24-secondclock in basketball.The expectationthen is that with conthe error term is normallydistributed. With the large number of contests over a season and throughtime. receiver completions and yards per pass. steals. m. and 16 in football.Considerable scouting resources are employed in determiningthe opponenthitters'weaknesses(types or positionof pitches and portionof field hits are likely to occur). These dimensionsof coachingqual- . W.Defensive skills are mainly measuredby blockedshots.OS). While scoringhas not been constantin professional sports due to rule change and innovation (movementof the pitcher'smound to 60'6"from of 50'. S is maximized when all player offensive skills relative to the opponents' defensive skills are equated = at the margin: i. the introduction the livelyball. quarterback pass completionrates and yards per pass. whatever change increasesscoringalso increasesopponent of scoring. stantvarianceacrosstime. j = 1. 82 in basketball.Defensive skills are measured by defensive blocking. both offensivelyand defensively. if the specificationis S . set offensive plays and defensive strategies. defensiverebounds and fouls. and kicker threepoint field goals and conversions. Teams appear to develop certain playing strategies (e.offensive skills are mainly measured by shooting percentages (field goal and free throw). quarterback sacks. OS is minimized when all playerdefensiveskillsrelative to the opponents'offensive skills are equated at the margin: OSmin = Eij (dOS/dYi) Yi + (dOS/dYj)Y1. and. In football. the forward pass and the field goal in football.2With this formulation it is possible to measuremanagerialperformance throughtime and acrosssports.). etc. The objectiveof a manageror head coach is to win as many games as possible with the relative offensiveand defensiveplayingskills at hand.) that are not equallyviable for all opponents.where Y is the ith defensiveskill relativeto its offensivecounterpart. is functionally related to scoring relative to opponent scoring. The total regularseason scoring(S) and opponent scoring(OS) are. interceptions.Opponent scoring is determined by a vector of players'defensive skills relativeto opponentplayers'offensiveskills:os = g(Yi). W= F(S/OS) = F[Ef(Xi)/Eg(Yi)] (5) In the form for statisticalestimationthe model for the win per cent is:1 InW= a +. But coaching inputs seem higher in basketball (and in football) than in baseball. Definitionally. offensive skills mainly are hitting. during a regular season. definitionally a constantmean (0. tackles. by definition:S = Es = Ef(Xi) and OS = Eos = Eg(Yi).In basketball.etc. Smax Ejj (dS/dXi)Xi + (dS/dX1)Xj. where X is the ith offensive skill relative to its defensive counterpart. fast break or a more deliberatepace of play. i = 1. runs or points scored duringa regularseason must equal opponent runs scored. as with the win per cent. in Particularly.e. But once a player is on base the object is to advance the man: steal. a game is won when the team outscoresits opponent. Each team plays 162 games in baseball. In baseball. etc. As with basketball. points in basketball and football) is determined by a vector of players'offensive skills relative to opponent players' defensive skills: s =f(Xi). pinch hit. the varianceis constant across time subsamples.fumble recoveries.406 GERALDW. football teams develop certain styles of play.8 ln(S/OS) + e (6) This formulationhas certain attractivestatistical properties. across teams. offensive skills are mainlymeasuredby offensive blocking.S/OS has a constantmean of 1 (a mean of zero. since one team's victoryis has another'sloss. Bases advanced yield runs scored.The scoring.

suggest differences that head coach that achieved the largest actual in the hazard (survival)rates by sport.). normallydistributed randominfluence. To The dimension of coaching quality that is mea.and some games lost. hustle.Neither of football the least.considersall deviations skills. some games are won some importantindependentdimension of play. not for reasons of relative ing skill has been omitted (e. given S and OS. them for the tenure interval2-15 years. 1956). while not dramatic. disturbance Most of the estimatingof managerial coaching agerial technical inefficiencyand v is a symmetor qualityhas been in this spirit.terministicfrontierestimates.Given a set of playing The approach. first questionis. Since are The choice of the estimationprocedurefor the these survival probabilities impossibleto read production(win) function in Eqn (6) depends on accuratelyoff of the graphs.capturethe trendin efficiencythe standarddeviasured here is the actual win per cent relative to tion of efficiencyis includedas a covariatein the the potentialwin per cent.only the sonable in baseball. the confidencebands) for all three sports. scoringis maximizedand opponent scoring from the efficient. Two stochastic frontier functions tual wins to the coachingfunction may be inap.A problemwith this ric. is. Table 1 presents made regarding errorterm.clutch performance. That survivalanalysis.In the approachis that the empiricalanalysismay suffer case of the win productionfunction. (2) the stochastic probabilities fact differby sport?The approprifrontierfunction. 60).The efficiencyof this best-practice for managerial curves(without head coach or manageris unity.playingskill or coachingabilitybut due to referee ness. The potentialwin per cent is the predictedwin SURVIVALANALYSIS per cent plus the largest observedpositive residual from the equation estimated in (6).we will assumethat managers were calculatedfor all of the managerswith two and coaches allocatetheir offensiveand defensive or more seasons managingor coaching.The error term may one extrarun or point stoppedby a redistribution be of the form E = u + v. To the extent that componentwould be luck.The The deterministic the by minimizing sum of the absolute residuals. This test comparesthe actual and the predictedfailGammafrontierfunction. the measureof coachingqualityis 0 < W/W* < 1. and the other with the error term skill measuredin baseball is the greatest and in assumed to be Gamma distributed. Figure 2 win per cent comparedto the predictedwin per presents the estimated Kaplan-Meier survival cent with the observedratio of scoring to oppo.etc. run or point can be producedor an opponent's part may be truly stochastic.g. efficiencyrises at a decreasingrate over that the observedS and OS are Smax and OSmin. E. 1992 tributionsby sport have been noted.It is well playingskillsin such a way as to maximizescoring knownthat there is a manageriallearningcurve. aggressive. career length (see Porter and Scully.were estimated.curves with Greenwood 95% confidence bands tenure in each of the three sports.one with a normallydistributed propriate. result for the comparisonacrosssportsis X2(2)= . as. The largestpositiveerroris associatedwith ferences.MANAGERIAL AND SURVIVABILITY PROFESSIONAL IN TEAM SPORTS EFFICIENCY 407 ity are allocativein nature.less reasonablein basketball.the assumptionof a these specifications were superior to the delinear homogeneousproductionfunction is rea. frontierfunctionis estimated ures for each groupand uses the x2 statistic. We will take it that is. These Differences in the mean tenure and in the disregressionsare reported elsewhere (Scully.therefore. nent scoring.the random from omitted variablesbias. where u is a one-sided the term representing degree of manof playing assignmentsat any moment of time.error or other fates beyond the control of the cribingthe differencebetween potential and ac. do these survival in terministic frontier function. and probablynot valid in football. Means and standard deviations of efficiency For our purposes. and minimizeopponent scoring.The number of dimensionsof playing error term. where W*=W+ Emax. All other head Also in the figureare the survival coacheswill lie in the unit interval. Moreover. anticipation.Therefore. v. A criticism is that defensive skills in such a way that not one extra only part of the error term may be deterministic.and (3) the maximum-likelihood ate test is the log rank test (Savage.contestants. These difp. later utilizedhere. 1982). frontier function as arising is minimized by allocating those offensive and from technical inefficiency. the the assumption the Three specificationswere employed:(1) the deNaturally.

If the underlyingdistribution is exponential. Kaplan-Meiersurvival with Greenwood confidencelimits. and the hazardis increasingand otherwisedecreasing.161 0.082. basketball (p = 0.427 0. SurvivalProbabilitiesof Managersby Sport Tenure Baseball Basketball Football 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0.077 0. implies a Weibulldistribution if p > 1.954.341 0. where S(t) is the survival function (the hazard function is Ap(At)P.790 0.124 0.etc.they involve can difficulties.106 0.) and in part because they yield complex hazard functionsthat do not have the constanthazardas a special case..506 0.148 0. accepting that the underlying distribution is Weibull.776 0. Table 1.7).134 0.303 0. The alternative.250 0. All the 5.090 0.142 0.148.243 0.285 0.so that the results can be taken only as approximate. The results by sport were as follows: baseball (p = 1.655 0.5 . The problem with the test is that the standarderrorsare seriallycorrelated.647 0.408 {a) Baseball GERALDW.141 0.e.180 0. p = 1. The next question of importanceis the form the underlying distribution.115 0.077 other distributions be employed. = 0.218 0.0.486 0.5 0 Football 20 Yesrs 60ears20 40 go &.173 0.103 0.log concavity. p # 1.321 0. While coefficientswere statistically differentfrom unity. SCULLY (b) Basketball I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~()I &(} C.521 0. One test that distinguishedbetween the exponential and the Weibull is to estimate ln(-ln(S(t))) = -ln(A) +p ln(t). prob.086 0.An alternative test is to estimate the Weibull parameters directly.083 0.213 0.5).1).338 0.190.105 0.380 0. whetherit follows i. the parameters can be esti- mated by linear regression. t = 112. and football (p = 1.in part because the qualitativeshape of the hazard (monotonicity.239 0. the exponential(a one-parameter or distribution) the Weibull(a two-parameter distribution).063 0.056 0.637 0. On the basis of the log rank test. The estimated p = 1/o- . the survivalcurves are statisticallydifferent from each other. Thus.190 0.5 Years 40 60 0 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0 : o 0 20 Years 40 20 Years 40 60 Figure2. t = 103.113 0. t = 129.423 0.

includingthe intercept and slope dummies. the estimationof the hypothesizedrela.693 0. In the Weibull regression that combines all the sports.77) 9.2 267 0.99) 9.1 33. We accept that the distribution Weibull. o-= 0.7737.085 (0.3 142 0.14) 5.lower mean efficiencyof head coaches in football tionshipbetweenmanagerial efficiencyand tenure is a naturalconsequenceof a higher noise-to-sig- Table 2.49) 10. The means and standarddeviationsof the via managerial efficiency measure by sport were: estimation is maximum-likelihood baseball (0.08) 0.93) -6.Estimationis of the form: is successful.0 + EpiXi + e) (7) The expectedsurvivaltimes related to managerial efficiency(the standarddeviationof efficiency where cr is the shape parameter(or p = 1/cr). are highly significant.2 100.716 0.578 (4.020 . Note: Asymptotic .08) -5. 3.All the x2s are significantat well above the 99% level.232 (4. Weibull Maximum Likelihood Regressions of Survival Variable Baseball Basketball Football All sports Constant Efficiency crEfficiency Basketball Football Eff* Basket Eff* Foot of Eff* Basket of Eff* Foot -5.697 (7.87) -4. The efficiency measure is alwayspositive(higherefficiencyis associatedwith longer (log) expected survivaltime and is highly significant(the t-values are asymptotict-values) in all sports. The Weibull regressionsappear in Table 2.10) -9. The method of +2o-.7171.The standarddeviationof efficiency also is positively associated with (log) expected survivaltime.MANAGERIAL EFFICIENCY AND SURVIVABILITY PROFESSIONAL IN TEAM SPORTS 409 comes from the Weibull regressionsin Table 2.063 (6. The estimated from the data.195 (6. In a= 0. but is not statisticallysignificantin football and only weakly significantin basketball (p = 0. log relative hazardor hazardratios.759 (3.22) 10.214 (3. The log expected time parameterization chosen.0734).142 (0. Newton-Raphson. underlying is There are severalparameterizations the maxof imum-likelihood Weibull regressionmodels.390 (1. o-= 0. and E has an extreme efficiencymeasure is at the mean and -2 o.5 565 t-valuesin parentheses.and value distributionscaled by o-.489 Sigma or(Sigma) Log Likelihood X2 N 0.0337).5771.0947) and football (0.45) 3. All the p's in the Weibull regressionsare significantly greater than unity. since we is want to focus directlyon expected survivaltime relativeto managerialefficiency.037 -174.5 34.030 -313. is set at the mean) are graphed in Fig.39) 3.650 0.989 (3.353 (4. The general.838 (4.3 156 (4.696 (4.27).35) 4.688 0.624 (4. The parameterestimatesmay be in log expectedtime.12) 0.1.03) 1.688 (2.038 -155.644.23) .02) 0.40) -10.all the variables. A(t) = (tWl1f) exp( . basketball(0.291 (6.8 26.

and cover all leagues and teams from the 1937-8 season the 1989-90 season. Too manyteams folded too early in the league to make their inclusion valid.Bottom-finishing there because they lack talented players or because they are managed poorly. teams and leagues were included. Prior to the 1960 season the data are from the Official 1985 National Football League Recordand Fact Book. In professionalteam sportsthis means the maximizing club'swin per cent with the playclubs mayget ing talent at hand. for the period 1960-89.5/ fg. containing clubs of equal playing strengths) is 0. Generally.1990 edition. The data for football are from 1933 to 1989 and for all leagues and teams. except for the Union Association teams in the 1884 season. The theoretical standard deviation of largest win per cent from a given set of player the win per cent of a 0.410 GERALDW. Expectedsurvival times relatedto managerial efficiency. the two can be distinguished. The head coach list prior to 1960 was obtainedfrom the Pro FootballGuide. where g is the numberof games during NOTES the season.2 times that of 1. Here the decision to retain or terminate the coach was modelled and estimated.3rd edition. Severaltests were per- . The data for basketball are Pro from The SportsEncyclopedia: Basketball. The theoreticalstandarddeviationin footballwith 16 season games is 3. nal ratio.500 club (or a league inputs. data are from TheSports 8th edition. the Pro Encyclopedia: Football. points or runs scored baseballwith 162 season games.The data for baseballare from 1876to 1989 All and are containedin TheBaseballEncyclopedia. Managerial tenure was shown to be linked to managerial efficiencyor the abilityof the coach to extractthe during the season and opponent points or runs scored were collected from standardsports record sources. 2. The residualsfrom the regressionsestimatedon the basis of Eqn (6) were examined and no pattern related to trend was found. Data on the win per cent. SCULLY Expected Tenure 12 Baseball 8 _ 4 Basketball -2 Sigma Mean +2 Sigma Efficiency ~~~~~~Football Figure3. CONCLUSION In the moderntheory of the firm the functionof the manageris to maximizethe principals'residual claim.

G. 110-20.The Natureof the Firm. and economic organization.in.R. Demsetz (1972).Economica the Economics of Sport (edited by G. 777-95. The Business of Major League Baseball.Contributions the theoryof rank to REFERENCES order statistics.A.MANAGERLAL EFFICIENCY AND SURVIVABILITY PROFESSIONAL IN TEAM SPORTS 411 formed on the residuals(e. N. Joumal of Political Economy. Scully (1989). 27.. Mergersand the marketfor corporate control. the squaredresiduals P. 48. 590-615. Greenwich. Manne (1965).W. and can EconomicReview. Measuringmanagainsttrend)with no significant results. Scully). H. 4. Alchian and H. 386-405. Porter and G.W. Scully (1992). 73. G.G. Ameriformationcosts.53-65. longevityin professionalteam sports. Chicago:The Universityof ChicagoPress. Coase(1937). A.H. Scully (1982).W.S. Coaching quality.CT:JAI Press. Southem Economic Joumal. Savage(1956). agerial efficiency: the case of baseball. L. turnover.K.62. Production.W.In Advancesin R.g. Annals of Mathematical Statistics. 642-50. .

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